Washington's decision not to coordinate with European
nations about its negotiations with Iran on Saturday will reduce its
leverage and make US and Israeli military action against Tehran ultimately more
likely, reports Reuters.
The United States did not tell European countries about the
nuclear talks in Oman before President Donald Trump announced
them on Tuesday, even though they hold a key card on the possible reimposition
of U.N. sanctions on Tehran, three European diplomats said.
"The United States is going to need a coordinated
diplomatic strategy with its European allies going into these negotiations with
Iran," said Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at the Jewish
Institute for National Security of America.
That coordination is "crucial to making sure that there
is maximum pressure and any diplomatic option has a chance of success,"
Misztal said.
Trump, who restored a "maximum pressure"
campaign on Tehran in February, on Wednesday repeated threats to use
military force against Iran if it didn't halt its nuclear program and said
Israel would be "the leader of that."
The West suspects Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, which it
denies. The threat of renewed sanctions is intended to pressure Tehran into
concessions, but detailed discussions on strategy have yet to take place with
the Americans, the diplomats said.
Because
the United States quit a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, it cannot initiate its
mechanism for reimposing sanctions, called snapback, at the United Nations
Security Council.
That makes Britain, Germany and France, known as the E3, the
only deal participants capable of and interested in pursuing snapback, so it is
crucial that Washington align with these allies, analysts said. Israel, Iran's
arch-enemy, has already lobbied the E3 to initiate it.
According to the three diplomats, the E3 told Iran they
would trigger the snapback mechanism by the end of June. Iran responded that
doing so would mean harsh consequences and a review of its nuclear doctrine,
the diplomats said.
"The
E3 do not trust the United States because it is taking initiatives without them
being consulted," said a senior European diplomat.
Trump withdrew the US in 2018 from the nuclear deal with
Iran also signed by Russia and China. The accord curbed Iran's nuclear activities
in return for sanctions relief. Russia opposes restoring sanctions.
Under the nuclear accord, participants can initiate the
30-day snapback process if they are unable to resolve accusations of Iranian
violations through a dispute-resolution mechanism. But that opportunity expires
on October 18 when the accord ends.
Since the US exited the deal in 2018, Iran has far surpassed
its uranium enrichment limits, according to the International Atomic Energy
Agency. Tehran is producing stocks of fissile purity well above what Western
powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy program and close to weapons
grade.
The US administration's approach echoes Trump's first term in
office, when he also prioritized unilateral talks with Iran, and with his
stance on the war in Ukraine, where Washington has begun direct talks with
Moscow, sidelining Europeans.
European officials have held some meetings with US
counterparts but said they were not sufficiently in-depth.
Even a meeting on Iran with US Secretary of State Marco
Rubio on the sidelines of a NATO foreign ministers meeting a week before
Trump's announcement was difficult to arrange, three E3 officials said.
The British, French and German foreign ministries did not
respond directly when asked if they had been made aware of the Oman talks ahead
of time.
"We remain committed to taking every diplomatic step to
prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including through snapback if
necessary," a British foreign ministry spokesperson said.
France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said tersely on
Wednesday that the French "take note with interest" the talks.
Having negotiated with Iran as a trio as far back as 2003 on
the nuclear issue, the European countries consider their role essential to a
solution. In the 2015 deal, a key carrot for Iran was being able to trade with
Europe.
The Europeans have helped the United States pressure Iran in
recent months, including at the UN atomic watchdog and with new sanctions on
Iran over its ballistic missile program, detention of foreign citizens and
support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.
During the US policy vacuum after Trump won the election but
before he took office, the Europeans tried to take the initiative by
holding exploratory talks with Iran that began in September and have continued.
The E3 said that was necessary because time was running out
before the 2015 deal expires on October 18, 2025. They have tried to sound out
whether new restrictions, albeit narrower than those agreed in 2015, could be
negotiated before then.
Diplomats said that in those talks, Iranian officials have
often quizzed their counterparts on the new US administration.
"Iran believes that talks with the E3 and other parties
to the nuclear deal can help defuse tensions over its nuclear program and can
be complementary to talks with the US," said an Iranian official.
