In September 2024, New Delhi lifted export restrictions on
white rice other than basmati that had been in place since July 2023. India
last month also started allowing exports of cheaper broken rice, used in
processed food. Most analysts say the international price of white rice will
continue to drop.
Thailand is the world's second-largest rice exporter by
volume, according to data from the 2022-2023 season. Agriculture accounts for
less than 10% of gross domestic product, but a lack of willingness by Thai rice
farmers to grow the crop will affect food security at home and abroad.
Last month about 300 farmers demonstrated in Bangkok,
calling on the government to act on cratering prices. "If the rice fields
die, the country dies," read a sign at the gathering.
A woman in her 50s who was demonstrating demanded the
resignation of Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan, whose ministry is in
charge of exports.
"The government doesn't care about the plight of
farmers," she said.
In Vietnam, the world's third-largest rice exporter, prices
have fallen steeply as well. Export prices are currently around US$400 a ton,
about 40% lower as compared with the end of 2023, according to the Vietnam Food
Association.
Vietnamese media report prices are at the lowest point in
nine years. In some cases, Vietnamese rice is cheaper than Thai or Indian
varieties. Some expect this year's export volume to be 20% lower than last
year.
India
is the world's leading exporter, accounting for 40% of the global share,
according to the US Department of Agriculture. Exports from India surpass those
of Thailand and Vietnam combined.
Measures taken by importing nations are also hurting farmers
in Thailand and Vietnam.
Indonesia, the world's fourth-largest rice consumer, will
halt imports this year. President Prabowo Subianto, who took office in October
2024, is promoting more agriculture to make good on a pledge to attain food
self-sufficiency by early 2026.
The Philippines declared a food security emergency in
February 2025 in an attempt to control inflation. The government released rice
stockpiles into the market, lowering prices.
In recent weeks, there appears to be an increasing number of
rice importers in the Philippines attempting to negotiate lower prices.
"Because rice is the staple food in Southeast Asia,
rice prices are an issue that directly affects people's lives," said
Tetsuya Kaneko, chief analyst at the Marubeni Research Institute. "With
importing countries trending toward improving self-sufficiency rates, export
volumes from countries such as Thailand and Vietnam will face downward pressure
in the medium to long term."
Rice exporters are taking steps to mitigate the fallout.
Last month, the Thai government said it held talks with India and Vietnam to
stabilize export prices by adjusting export volumes and avoiding excess
competition.
No concrete agreement has been reached, but the parties
intend to continue discussions.
Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh called on
financial institutions to support farmers by easing interest rates. The Ministry
of Finance is set to provide tax relief for rice producers.
Japan, which is facing a historic rice shortage, hosted
an international food expo in March 2025 where the government of Thailand
promoted its rice. Vietnam has also identified Japan as a promising export
destination on par with the United States and Africa.
Unlike Thailand and Vietnam where long-grain rice is the
norm, Japan consumes mostly short-grain varieties. This wrinkle explains much
of the discrepancies between the three markets.
Kenichi Shimomura, head of the Asia Japan desk at the German
consultancy Roland Berger, says Japan rice demand is greater than what was
witnessed during the rice shortage in the early 1990s. Japan imported Thai rice
on an emergency basis back then.
"The key is how much cheaper imports can be compared to
Japanese rice," said Shimomura.
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