PSX benchmark index declines by 3.32%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained highly volatile throughout the week ended on April 11, 2025, with investors reacting to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs on all the countries, 29% tariffs on Pakistan. This eroded investor confidence causing KSE-100 index to fall by 3,938 points or 3.32%WoW during the week, closing in at 114,853 points.

On the first trading day, KSE-100 fell by as much as 7.3% with a market halt in order to control volatility, with the index recovering by day end, closing in at negative 3.3% by day end. However, with the US changing its stance on the tariffs imposed by announcing a 90-day pause on tariffs on all countries, keeping 10% base tariffs intact, except for China, KSE-100 index posted an opening of 2,941pts, up 2.58% on Thursday. Last day of the week once again saw a bearish session due to escalation of dispute between US and China, with the tariffs on China being 145% by the US and tariffs on US being 125% by China.

Expectation of further cuts in policy rate resulted in Commercial Banks eroding 1,399 points from the index. Falling global oil prices, with Brent down by 3.8%WoW, negatively impacted the E&P Sector.

Average daily trading volume was up by 14%WoW to 557 million shares, as compared to 488 million shares traded a week ago.

ADB revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast for FY25/FY26 to 2.5%/3.0% and inflation forecast for FY25/FY26 to 6.0%/5.8%, respectively.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) were up by US$28 million to US$10.7 billion as of April 04, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Cement Sales decreased by 9.5%YoY, 2) Petroleum sales increased 5%YoY, 3) Auto Sales declined 8%YoY, 4) Pakistan delegation to visit United States for tariff discussion, and 5) GoP raises PKR427 billion in PIB auction.

Pharmaceuticals, Cement, and Textile Composite were amongst the top performing sectors, while laggards included Fertilizer, Textile Weaving, and Technology and Communication.

Flow wise, barring debt, major net selling was recorded by FIPI, Individuals and Mutual Funds with a net sell of US$19.4 million. Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$19.3 million (including KOHC buyback of US$16.5 million).

Top performing scrips of the week were: PGLC, TGL, GLAXO, PSX, and LUCK, while top laggards included: EFERT, SRVI, PPL, ENGROH, and UBL. 

 According to AKD Securities, lower oil prices and favorable standing among exporting peers amid reciprocal tariffs would support the economy.

The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in fertilizers, sustained ROEs in banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability. Top pick of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.