Political Swings in the Middle East in 2025

I am inclined to refer to an article by Robin Wright and Peyton Dashiel of Wilson Center. I consider it more like a US narrative. I suggest the readers to read the content dispassionately to understand how situation is likely to unfold in the near future.

In 2025, power dynamics in the Middle East shifted significantly. Sunni factions gained influence while Shiite groups tied to Iran weakened. Political turmoil, economic struggles, and escalating conflicts—especially between Israel and Iran—exacerbated regional instability, hampering diplomacy, development, and prospects for long-term peace.

Regional Shifts and Rising Conflicts

The region faced an unprecedented level of crises, with violence escalating in Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan, and Yemen. The Sunni resurgence saw Islamist parties gaining political ground in Jordan and Syria, where a military coup toppled the Assad regime. Iran’s influence waned, with its proxy militias suffering major losses due to Israeli and US airstrikes. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia bolstered its regional dominance, hosting US-Russia talks on Ukraine and offering to mediate US-Iran negotiations.

Conflicts in Gaza and the Red Sea intensified. Israel’s war with Hamas continued, with peace efforts stalling. Hostilities between Israel and Iran escalated, with both nations engaging in direct attacks. Houthi rebels in Yemen disrupted international shipping in the Red Sea, causing a sharp decline in Suez Canal traffic.

Internal Political Shifts

In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost major local elections in 2024, signaling a shift in public sentiment. The government’s arrest of opposition figure Ekrem İmamoğlu in March 2025 further fueled tensions.

In Iran, reformist Masoud Pezeshkian won the presidency, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with theocratic rule.

Tunisian President Kais Saied intensified crackdowns on opposition, extending the prison sentence of Ennahdha leader Rachid Ghannouchi.

Syria’s Assad regime collapsed after more than 70 years in power. Sunni militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized control, igniting sectarian clashes with Alawites. While Iran distanced itself from its traditional proxies, its Supreme Leader insisted Tehran did not rely on foreign militias.

Economic and Diplomatic Fallout

Economic crises deepened, with the World Bank warning of long-term stagnation. Diplomatic efforts faltered as regional rivalries intensified, particularly between Israel and Iran. With increasing violence and political upheaval, the path to stability in the Middle East remained highly uncertain.

PSX experiences slight pullback

Pakistan Stock Exchange witnessed a slight pullback during the week, retreating after reaching its highest-ever closing a week ago. The benchmark index closed at 117,806 points, down by 635 points or 0.54%WoW as compared to last week's closing at 118,442 points.

Average daily trading volume also dropped by 38%WoW, to 317 million shares, as compared to 508 million shares traded a week ago.

The profit taking was driven by substantial selling by Insurance companies, alongside month-end rollovers, which added to investors’ unease before Eid holidays.

Several positive developments emerged during the week, as IMF confirmed reaching the Staff Level Agreement (SLA) with the authorities in the first review of EFF, supplemented with a 28-month arrangement of US$1.3 billion under Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), pending approval of the IMF’s Executive Board.

GDP growth for 2QFY25 was recorded at 1.7%YoY, with Agriculture recovering by 1.1%YoY amidst a 5.4%YoY decline in crops growth.

PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) IMF team due in May to finalize FY26 budget, 2) GoP to slash power tariffs soon, 3) Turkiye, Denmark to support climate fight, 4) Net metering contract term limited to 5 years, and 5) Pakistan receives US$9.77 billion via RDA as of February 2025.

Tobacco, Glass & Ceramics, and Vanaspati & Allied Industries were amongst the top performing sectors, while Leather & Tanneries, Paper & Board, and Technology & Communication were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Insurance Companies with a net sell of US$8.8 million. Individuals and Other Organizations absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$9.3 million.

Top performers during the week were: PAKT, UBL, ATLH, NPL, and ABOT, while laggards included: PKGP, SRVI, KTML, CHCC, and NML.

According to AKD Securities the arket is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with the recent announcement of a staff-level agreement serving as a key trigger for momentum.

The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

Top pick of the brokerage house includes, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

 

کیا آپ کو یاد ہے آج یوم القدس ہے؟

یوم القدس رمضان کے آخری جمعہ کو دنیا بھر میں مسلم اکثریتی ممالک اور کمیونٹیز میں منایا جاتا ہے۔ اس کا آغاز 1979 میں ایرانی انقلاب کے بعد آیت اللہ روح اللہ خمینی نے فلسطینی عوام کے ساتھ اظہار یکجہتی اورالقدس پر اسرائیلی قبضے کی مخالفت کے دن کے طور پر کیا تھا۔

یوم القدس کی اہمیت:

1. فلسطین کی حمایت

یوم القدس فلسطینیوں کی حمایت اور اسرائیلی پالیسیوں کی مخالفت کی علامت ہے، خاص طور پر یروشلم کے حوالے سے، جسے اسلام، عیسائیت اور یہودیت میں ایک مقدس شہر سمجھا جاتا ہے۔

2. ظلم کے خلاف احتجاج

اس دن کو فلسطینیوں پر ہونے والے ظلم بالخصوص مشرقی یروشلم اور مغربی کنارے پر اسرائیل کے قبضے کے خلاف مظاہروں اور ریلیوں کے ذریعے اجاگر کیا جاتا ہے۔

3. اسلامی اتحاد اور مزاحمت

بہت سے مسلم اکثریتی ممالک اور تنظیمیں یوم القدس مناتی ہیں تاکہ خطے میں مغربی اور اسرائیلی اثر و رسوخ کے خلاف اسلامی اتحاد اور مزاحمت کو فروغ دیا جا سکے۔

4. مذہبی اور سیاسی علامت

یروشلم مسجد اقصیٰ کی موجودگی کی وجہ سے مسلمانوں کےلئے خاص مذہبی اہمیت رکھتا ہے، جو اسلام کا تیسرا مقدس ترین مقام ہے۔ یوم القدس شہر سے مذہبی اور تاریخی تعلق کی یاد دہانی کراتا ہے۔

5. دنیا بھر میں مظاہرے

اگرچہ اس کی ابتدا ایران سے ہوئی لیکن اب یوم القدس کئی ممالک بشمول لبنان، عراق، پاکستان، اور دیگر مسلم اکثریتی ریاستوں کے ساتھ ساتھ بعض مغربی شہروں میں فلسطینیوں کی حمایت کےلیۓ منایا جاتا ہے۔

یوم القدس ایک نہیایت دن ہے، بڑے پیمانے پر ریلیوں، تقاریر، دعاؤں اور مظاہروں میں فلسطین کی حمایت اور اسرائیلی پالیسیوں کے خلاف نعرے لگائے جاتے ہیں۔

 یہ دن خاص طور پر ان ممالک میں متنازعہ ہے جن کے اسرائیل سے مضبوط تعلقات ہیں یا لوگ اسرائیل-فلسطین تنازعہ پر مختلف سیاسی نظریات رکھتے ہیں۔

 

Arabs do not go beyond lip service to Gazans

The issue of why many Arab governments seem to offer only "lip service" in support of Gaza is complex and rooted in a mix of political, economic, and geopolitical factors. Let us explore the likely reasons.

Geopolitical Constraints

US Influence:

Many Arab nations, especially those with close ties to the West (like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Jordan), rely heavily on the US support that include aid, security, and diplomatic backing. Directly confronting Israel — a key US ally — risks straining these relationships.

Normalization Deals:

Countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan have signed normalization agreements with Israel (the Abraham Accords). These agreements are tied to economic and strategic benefits, making it costly to take aggressive action against Israel.

Iran Factor:

Some Arab governments, especially Sunni-majority have been brain washed to see Iran — which supports Hamas and Hezbollah — as a bigger regional threat than Israel. This complicates their stance on Gaza.

Mutual Interests

Economic Dependence:

Many Arab economies are tightly integrated with Western financial systems or rely on international trade and investments that could suffer if they provoke Israel’s allies.

Internal Stability:

Countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon — which have large Palestinian refugee populations — are already facing economic hardship. Escalating tensions could lead to social unrest, which their governments are eager to avoid.

Regime Survival

Authoritarian Control:

Many Arab leaders prioritize regime survival over regional solidarity. Supporting Gaza too aggressively could embolden opposition groups within their own countries — especially Islamist movements like the Muslim Brotherhood, which many Arab governments suppress.

Government Policy:

While Arab populations broadly support Palestine, authoritarian governments often control protests, media narratives, and activism to prevent mass uprisings. They may issue strong statements to appease the public but avoid substantive actions.

Egypt-Gaza Dynamic

Rafah Border:

Egypt controls the only non-Israeli border with Gaza. While Egypt has expressed solidarity, it's wary of fully opening the Rafah crossing due to: 1) security concerns (fear of extremist infiltration), 2) pressure from Israel and the US to control the flow of people and goods and 3) Hamas ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt’s government opposes.

Breaking Status quo

For Arab governments to go beyond rhetoric, they need: 1) stronger, unified regional leadership — which is currently fractured, 2) a major shift in global alliances, reduced US influence or developing better and dependable relations with other super powers like China and Russia and 3) internal pressures that become uncontainable — widespread, sustained protests or leadership changes driven by popular demands.

 

Israeli Plan for Full Reoccupation of Gaza

Israel has formulated a new plan to fully reoccupy the Gaza Strip, according to a report published Monday by the Financial Times, citing senior Israeli officials. If implemented, this would mark the first time Israel reasserts full control over Gaza since its 2005 unilateral withdrawal.

The proposed strategy, developed by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, reportedly calls for the mobilization of multiple IDF combat divisions to enter the Strip with the aim of decisively dismantling Hamas and restoring security control. The report indicates that the plan has backing from members of Israel’s security leadership and political right, but has not yet been approved by the security cabinet.

Two Israeli officials noted that the return of Donald Trump to White House was a key factor in reviving such a bold plan. The current US administration has given stronger public support for Israel’s military objectives, signaling a window of opportunity for Israel to reshape Gaza’s future governance.

In addition to regaining military control, Israel would reportedly assume full authority over humanitarian aid distribution within the Strip. This would include managing aid flows and monitoring nutritional requirements part of a broader plan to ensure that civilians receive assistance while Hamas is denied access to resources.

Hamas, a US-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, continues to operate within civilian infrastructure and impede aid access. Israel’s plan to oversee aid directly is intended to sever the terror group’s ability to manipulate humanitarian efforts.

 

Undeclared US-Iran war and role of Israel

The tension between the United States and Iranian clerics — especially the ruling ones — is rooted in a mix of historical events, ideological differences, and geopolitical conflicts. To understand the prevailing situation one has to peep into the history.

Iranian Revolution of 1979

Let us begin with the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The US had a strong alliance with Iran’s Shah (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi), who promoted Western-friendly policies. After Shah was overthrown, Ayatollah Khomeini established the Islamic Republic, rejecting Western influence and terming the US the "Great Satan." During the US embassy hostage crisis (1979-1981), 52 Americans were held captive for 444 days.

Ideological Clash

The Western media is never tired of claiming that Iran’s clerical leadership promotes anti-Western, anti-imperialist, and anti-Israel sentiments. This is termed directly challenging the US hegemony in the region.

The US supports secular governance and democracy, while Iran's leadership is based on Velayat-e Faqih (rule of the Islamic jurist), blending religion and politics in a way that challenges Western norms.

Regional Power Struggle

The United States considers Iran the biggest challenger of its hegemony in the MENA. The US classifies the axis of resistance as terrorist organizations and alleges that Iran supports militant groups like Hezbollah and Houthi rebels. Over the years the US has been playing the mantra, “Iran is a bigger threat for Saudi Arabia as compared to Iran” and promoting animosity among the two countries. This enabled the US to sell lethal weapons worth billions of dollars to Saudi Arabia.

Nuclear Tensions

Despite Iran’s repeated assurances that its nuclear program is peaceful, the US has been propagating that Iran is busy in developing nuclear weapons to destabilize the region. The 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) temporarily eased tensions, but Trump withdrew from it in 2018, leading to renewed sanctions and hostilities.

Human Rights and Freedom

The US has been persistently accusing Iran’s clerical leadership for suppressing protests, women’s rights violations, censorship, and political imprisonments — especially after events like the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests.

In short, the US sees Iranian clerics as anti-Western, oppressive, and destabilizing, while the clerics view the US as imperialist and morally corrupt. It is believed that after the US Embassy debacle, the world super power decided not enter into direct confrontation with Iran. The US, found a proxy, Israel.

Strategic Partnership with Israel

The US sees Israel as its closest ally in the Middle East — a stable, technologically advanced, and militarily strong partner in a region filled with rival powers. Israel shares the US goal of curbing Iranian influence, especially because Iran funds groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which directly threaten Israel.

Iran as a Regional Threat

The US and Israel both view Iran’s leadership as destabilizing due to Iranian support for militant proxies (Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria). Anti-Israel rhetoric — Iran’s leaders have repeatedly called for Israel’s destruction. Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which both nations see as a potential existential threat to Israel and a power-shifting game changer in the region.

Covert Israeli Operations

Israel often conducts covert strikes on Iranian targets — like the assassination of nuclear scientists or cyberattacks. This allows the US to distance itself publicly while still supporting Israeli actions behind the scenes (financial aid, intelligence sharing, advanced weaponry).

 Funding and Military Aid

The US provides Israel with $3.8 billion annually in military aid, ensuring Israel maintains a "Qualitative Military Edge" over regional adversaries, particularly Iran. This enables Israel to act as a forward line of defense without direct US military involvement.

Avoiding a Full-Scale War

Direct US conflict with Iran could escalate into a massive regional war — something the US wants to avoid after the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. By using Israel and occasionally other regional allies to contain Iran, the US avoids deploying troops while still advancing its strategic goals.

Balancing Regional Power

Iran’s influence stretches from Tehran to Beirut (the so-called "Shia Crescent"). The US and Israel work to disrupt this expansion, particularly in Syria (where Iran supported Assad) and Lebanon (via Hezbollah). Recent airstrikes on Iranian arms shipments and proxy bases — often attributed to Israel — are part of this containment strategy.

The Conclusion

The US doesn’t officially call Israel a proxy, but the relationship functions that way in practice. Israel handles the dirty work, and the US provides diplomatic cover, weapons, and money. This setup gives the US strategic flexibility without the cost and backlash of another Middle Eastern war.

Drawing a parallel between US supplying arms to Israel and Iran supplying arms to Houthis

This morning I sat down to explore a parallel between US supplying arms to Israel and Iran supplying arms to Houthis. My gut feeling is, though the situations are complex and have key differences, the outcome depends on the analyst if he/ she is a friend of United States.

The Parallel:

Proxy Support:
The Western analysts, without any hesitation say both Iranian support for the Houthis and the US support for Israel involve supplying advanced weapons to allied groups or nations engaged in regional conflicts. Over the years Western analysis have been saying, Iran backs the Houthis to extend its influence against Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, while the US supports Israel as a key strategic ally in the Middle East.

Strategic Goals:
The mantra of Western analysts is, Iran aims to challenge Western-aligned powers (like Saudi Arabia and Israel), while the US supports Israel to maintain a balance of power favorable to its interests in the region.

Impact on Conflicts:
They also say, both arms supplies prolong conflicts. Iranian weapons bolster Houthi resilience in Yemen’s civil war, while US arms help Israel maintain its military edge in Gaza and against regional threats like Hezbollah.

Key Differences:

Legitimacy and International Recognition:
God Fathers of genocide in Gaza say, Israel is a recognized sovereign state, whereas the Houthis are a rebel group (though they control significant territory in Yemen). This affects how international law and diplomacy perceive the arms transfers.

Military Capabilities:
The reality is, the US arms to Israel include advanced fighter jets, missile defense systems, and intelligence support — a level of military aid far beyond the drones, missiles, and small arms Iran provides to the Houthis.

Transparency and Alliances:
The funniest argument is, the US military aid to Israel is largely public, subject to congressional oversight, and part of formal agreements. Iran’s support for the Houthis is clandestine, violating UN arms embargoes.

Global Perception:
The dishonest Western media go to the extent of saying, the US positions its support as aiding a democracy for self-defense, while Iran’s aid to the Houthis is widely seen as destabilizing and fueling a humanitarian crisis.