Saturday, 8 March 2025

France, Germany, Italy and Britain back Arab plan for Gaza reconstruction

According to Reuters, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy and Britain said on Saturday they supported an Arab-backed plan for the reconstruction of Gaza that would cost US$53 billion and avoid displacing Palestinians from the enclave.

"The plan shows a realistic path to the reconstruction of Gaza and promises – if implemented – swift and sustainable improvement of the catastrophic living conditions for the Palestinians living in Gaza," the ministers said in a joint statement.

The plan, which was drawn up by Egypt and adopted by Arab leaders on Tuesday, has been rejected by Israel and by US President Donald Trump, who has presented his own vision to turn the Gaza Strip into a "Middle East Riviera".

The Egyptian proposal envisages the creation of an administrative committee of independent, professional Palestinian technocrats entrusted with the governance of Gaza after the end of the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.

The committee would be responsible for the oversight of humanitarian aid and managing the Strip's affairs for a temporary period under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority.

The statement issued by the four European countries on Saturday said they were committed to working with the Arab initiative, and they appreciated the important signal the Arab states had sent by developing it.

The statement said Hamas "must neither govern Gaza nor be a threat to Israel any more" and that the four countries "support the central role for the Palestinian Authority and the implementation of its reform agenda.

 

 

Friday, 7 March 2025

Trump’s unsent Iran letter to Iran

US President Donald Trump claimed to have sent a letter to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, expressing interest in striking a deal with Iran on its nuclear program – a move that represents neither a swerve in Iran-US relations nor holds much promise under the current US policies.

"I wrote them a letter saying I hope you are going to negotiate," Trump stated, coupling the plea with the familiar threat to either "handle" Iran militarily or "make a deal." In an eyebrow-raising moment, when asked when he'd sent the letter to [Imam] "Khomeini," the long-deceased founder of the Islamic Republic, Trump claimed it was "yesterday," meaning Wednesday.

An unnamed American official, later told Al Jazeera that the letter had been "written" but not yet sent. That came after Iran’s mission to the UN said the country had received no such letter.

This isn't the first instance of a US president writing – or, in this case, claiming to have written – to Iran's Leader. Former President Barack Obama penned two letters to Ayatollah Khamenei, and Trump himself entrusted former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe with a message for the Leader during Abe's 2019 visit to Tehran. Ayatollah Khamenei declined to receive the letter, telling Abe that he didn't consider Trump a “worthy” interlocutor.

This also isn’t the first instance of Trump saying he wants a deal with Iran. He's been making this statement since 2018, the year he withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

That 2015 agreement, negotiated over at least two years by Iran, the United States, Britain, Russia, China, and Germany, traded limits on Iran's nuclear program for sanctions relief.

Trump's abandonment of the JCPOA and reimposition of sanctions not only undermined the agreement but ultimately spurred European nations to enact their own embargoes later, despite remaining official signatories.

On the same Thursday that Trump told a Fox anchor he wanted to negotiate with Iran, his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, addressed the Economic Club of New York.

There, Bessent vowed that the president’s anti-Iran sanctions during his second term would be even more severe.

“We are going to shut down Iran’s oil sector and drone manufacturing capabilities,” Bessent stated, adding that the administration also intends to cut off Tehran’s access to the international financial system.

Multiple Iranian officials have reiterated in recent weeks that Iran will not engage in talks under pressure, aligning with a directive from Ayatollah Khamenei, who in early February described negotiations with the US as "unwise, unintelligent, and dishonorable."

Iranians’ deep-seated distrust towards the US is rooted in decades of American meddling in Iran's affairs, especially during the Pahlavi era. But Ayatollah Khamenei’s stance has especially hardened since Trump withdrew Washington from the JCPOA.

The fact that the president continues to threaten Iran with sanctions or military action is not helping ease Tehran’s concerns either. 

During his Fox Business interview, Trump stated his primary concern was preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. However, his decision to withdraw from the JCPOA – a deal that subjected Iran's nuclear facilities to unprecedented international scrutiny and compelled the country to roll back some of its advancements – suggests other priorities are at play.

As a February directive revealed, Trump's real goals are to force Iran to curtail its missile programs and sever ties with regional Resistance forces.

Analysts argue that publicizing a letter before it reaches the intended recipient serves primarily to advance Trump's own interests, rather than reflecting a genuine desire for good faith diplomacy.

Given Iran's sustained resistance to years of sanctions, it's clear that propaganda and media maneuvers alone will not compel the country to negotiate.

Iran also remains firm on its refusal to negotiate its military capabilities, and persistent or intensified Western pressure may ultimately force it to reconsider its nuclear doctrine. 

There's no guarantee that Trump's potential military options against Iran would achieve the desired outcome. Washington likely lacks the capacity to destroy all of Iran's fortified and dispersed nuclear sites, while a devastating response from Tehran would be all but certain.

 

Women key to prosperous rural communities

Women like Anta, Dorothy and Fatima are the backbone of rural societies in West Africa. Yet, they often face barriers to economic opportunities and leadership roles. Their stories remind us that, with the right support, women can lead transformative change in their communities and beyond.

Across West Africa, rural women are proving that small-scale agriculture isn’t just the backbone of sustainable food systems – it’s a powerful pathway to economic, social and political empowerment. Meet three inspiring women who are transforming their communities and paving the way for a more equitable future.

Anta’s journey from domestic work to video-maker

Anta is pursuing her dream of working as an agricultural entrepreneur in her community. When Anta was growing up in Ngoudiane, Senegal, young women had few options beyond leaving home to find domestic work in Dakar. Anta describes it as “miserable work,” but for many, it was the only choice.

Everything changed when the IFAD-supported Agri-Jeunes initiative trained 14 young women, including Anta, to build a farming business. Despite initial skepticism from their neighbours, Anta persevered.

With a start-up fund, they invested in seeds and land improvements, growing peppers, onions and other vegetables. After their first harvest, they reinvested their profits.

Today, Anta and her team are using YouTube to market their produce and inspire others to see farming as a viable, rewarding career.

“Why not stay here in your territory or here in Senegal to work the land? Because the land does not lie,” Anta says. “We believe this can change our village and can also change the world.”

Dorothy’s seeds of change

Dorothy markets certified seed in Nigeria with support from VCDP. Like many young people, Dorothy struggled to find work after completing her degree.  Despite her farming background, she never imagined agriculture could be a thriving business, until she discovered the IFAD-supported Value Chain Development Program (VCDP).

Through VCDP, Dorothy learned to produce rice seeds that have been certified for quality, which significantly boost yields. To convince local farmers to invest, she gave away seeds for free – and the results were undeniable: farmers saw their production multiply.

Today, Dorothy runs a successful agribusiness, outsourcing seed production to other farmers and providing them with training and supplies.

Fatima’s empowering journey

Fatima has led the rehabilitation of rice fields in her village. When Fatima was 17 years old, she was forced into an arranged marriage and subjected to domestic violence. After leaving with her two children and remarrying, she began cultivating her in-laws’ rice fields in Guinea-Bissau, but frequent flooding made the land unusable.

When her village learned about the IFAD-supported PADES project, which rehabilitates rice fields, Fatima joined a delegation to seek help. In 2019, the fields were restored with improved water management systems, and Fatima was elected chair of the rice field management committee.

Under Fatima's leadership, the village’s rice fields have flourished and she has become an advocate for women’s empowerment and girls’ education.

“Being in a decision-making position has allowed me to rebuild my life and heal the emotional wounds caused by having to leave school at 17,” she says. “I’ve regained my self-esteem.”

Courtesy: International Fund for Agricultural Development

Nasdaq plans round the clock trading

Nasdaq plans to introduce 24-hour trading on its flagship US exchange to capitalize on growing global demand for US equities, a senior executive said in a social media post on Friday, reports the Reuters.

International demand for the lucrative US equity market has surged in recent years, driven by rising retail participation, increasing financial literacy, and easier access to digital trading platforms.

The exchange operator has started discussions with regulators and expects to launch 24-hour, five days a week trading in the second half of 2026, Nasdaq President Tal Cohen wrote in a LinkedIn post.

A round the clock trading model will allow exchanges to tap into global demand - which is currently catered to by alternative trading platforms - by attracting investors across time zones, increasing trading volumes, and improving market liquidity.

"The global growth of investor demand for US equities means we stand at another pivotal moment for our markets – to broaden investor access, expand wealth-building opportunities, and redefine how markets function," Cohen said.

Nasdaq joins rival exchanges like Cboe Global Markets and Intercontinental Exchange, the operator of the New York Stock Exchange, in planning extended trading hours.

"I suspect regulatory approval will occur once the securities information processors are updated to handle round the clock markets," Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and CIO at Running Point Capital Advisors told Reuters.

Exchanges might initially experiment with extended trading in large market-cap stocks, but "it will be interesting to see if they charge extra fees for extended trading," Schulman said. "Liquidity and fair market pricing will be relevant issues to address."

 

PSX remains under pressure

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced volatility early in the week but gained momentum with the benchmark index closing at 114,398 points on Friday, March 07, 2025, posting a gain of 1.01%WoW.

Inflation for February 2025, clocked in at 1.52%YoY, the lowest in 9 years, sparking investor optimism and fueling expectations of a potential rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for March 10, 2025.

Alongside reports about the government's efforts to eliminate circular debt in the power sector by borrowing PKR1.25 trillion from commercial banks at an interest rate of 10.8%.

The rally in Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Cement and Oil & Gas Marketing Companies sectors was recorded.

Trade deficit for February clocked in at US$2.3 billion, up 33%YoY, due to 10%YoY increase in imports to US$4.7 billion.

OMC offtake was recorded at 1.136 million tons, up 2%YoY.

Market participation decreased due to Ramadan, with the average daily traded volume recorded at 290.33 million share as against 474.90 million shares in the earlier week, down 38.9%WoW.

PKR largely remained flat against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) IMF may allow cut in FBR target below PkR12.5 trillion, 2) Cement dispatches post double-digit growth for second consecutive month, 3) FBR proposes reduction in tax rates for Beverages, tobacco and real estate sector, and 4) Public debt rose to PKR72.1 trillion.

Glass & Ceramics, Oil & Gas Marketing Companies, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Chemical and Mutual Funds were amongst the top performing sectors, while Leasing Companies, Inv. Banks/ Inv. Cos/ Securities Cos, Transport, Sugar & Allied Products and Automobile Assembler were amongst the worst performers.

Major selling was recorded by Individuals with a net sell of US$6.18 million. Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$4.22 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: GHGL, TGL, FCCL, SNGP, and PSO, while laggards included: MEHT, PGLC, ENGROH, JDWS, and MUREB.

According to AKD Securities, market is expected to maintain its positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed income to equities amid falling fixed income yields.

With easing inflation, the upcoming MPC meeting will remain a key focus. Over the medium term, the benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum through CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of Fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of Banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.

 

Thursday, 6 March 2025

United States destroying world order

Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former armed forces chief and current ambassador to Britain, said on Thursday that the United States was destroying the current world order, reports Reuters,

The popular general, who led Ukraine's defence in the first two years of Moscow's full-scale invasion, spoke as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy sought to mend fences with Washington after a fiery White House row with President Donald Trump.

Zaluzhnyi said Ukraine had held onto its independence despite "animus and threats coming even from friends".

His sharp remarks, made at London's Chatham House think tank, came after Trump froze military aid and intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in moves to push Zelenskiy into peace talks with Russia, while refusing to offer Kyiv security guarantees.

"It's obvious the White House has questioned the unity of the whole Western world," Zaluzhnyi said, "Because we see that it's not just the axis of evil and Russia trying to revise the world order, but the US is finally destroying this order."

European leaders on Thursday said they would stand by Ukraine - and boost defence spending - to enable them to stand up to Russia. But the US has been a key backer, and its intelligence, equipment and financial support have been crucial for Kyiv.

Zaluzhnyi is broadly popular in Ukraine and is seen as a potential challenger to Zelenskiy when Ukraine holds elections, although he has voiced no clear ambitions to run for office.

Elections are currently prohibited by the declaration of martial law after Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Zelenskiy replaced Zaluzhnyi as army chief last year following battlefield setbacks. Russian forces now hold about 20% of Ukraine and have been gradually advancing in the country's east.

Zaluzhnyi added that Ukraine should receive security guarantees and "should avoid the role of bargaining chip in any negotiations".

 

US mulls plan to disrupt Iranian oil movement

President Donald Trump's administration is considering a plan to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea under an international accord aimed at countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Trump has vowed to restore a "maximum pressure" campaign to isolate Iran from the global economy and drive its oil exports to zero, in order to stop the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Trump hit Iran with two waves of fresh sanctions in the first weeks of his second-term, targeting companies and the so-called shadow fleet of ageing oil tankers that sail without Western insurance and transport crude from sanctioned countries.

Those moves have largely been in line with the limited measures implemented during former President Joe Biden's administration, during which Iran succeeded in ramping up oil exports through complex smuggling networks.

Trump officials are now looking at ways for allied countries to stop and inspect ships sailing through critical chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait in Asia and other sea lanes.

Previous attempts to seize Iranian oil cargoes have triggered retaliation by Iran.

The US tried to interdict at least two cargoes of Iranian oil in 2023, under Biden. This prompted Iran to seize foreign ships - including one chartered by Chevron Corp, which sent crude prices higher.

The current low oil price environment gives Trump more options to block Iranian oil flows, from sanctions on tanker companies to seizing ships, according to Ben Cahill, an energy analyst at the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems at the University of Texas.

"I think if prices stay below US$75 a barrel, the White House has more latitude to look at sanctions that would affect, you know, supply from Iran and other countries. It would be much harder to do this in a US$92 per barrel environment," Cahill said.

Aggressive US action could cut Iran exports by some 750,000 barrels per day in the short term, he said, but the longer the sanctions are in place, the less effective they are as Iran and buyers figure out ways around them.

A speedy resumption of oil exports from Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region would help offset any fall in Iranian exports.

Reuters previously reported that the White House is piling pressure on Iraq to allow Kurdish oil exports to restart or face sanctions alongside Iran.

Despite US sanctions in recent years, Tehran's oil exports brought in US$53 billion in 2023 and US$54 billion a year earlier, largely in trades with China, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates.

Iran relies on oil exports to China for vital revenue. Russia, which faces restrictions on oil exports and broader Western sanctions, is similarly focused on shipping oil to buyers in China and India.

Finland and other Nordic countries have warned in recent months of the dangers of ships sailing close to their shores and the environmental risks they pose to their shores in oil spills if there is an accident.

While European countries have spoken about inspections of ships transporting Russian oil suspected of not having valid insurance, little action has been taken and none mooted for vessels hauling Iranian oil.