AMAN-25 multinational maritime exercise

The Commander of the Pakistan Navy has expressed his enthusiasm about the participation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the forthcoming multinational maritime exercise, AMAN-25, set to take place in Karachi from February 07 to February 11.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with Iranian news agency IRNA in Islamabad, Admiral Naveed Ashraf emphasized the long-standing and constructive relationship between Pakistan and Iran’s naval forces. He also indicated his eagerness to further expand and enhance this partnership.

During the official visit of General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, to Islamabad, Pakistan extended a formal invitation to Iran for the AMAN-25 exercise. 

Tehran welcomed the invitation, reinforcing the shared interest in strengthening military cooperation. 

Admiral Ashraf noted that Pakistan values the contributions made by the Iranian Navy in fostering stronger regional maritime cooperation. “We have much to learn from each other’s maritime experiences. As we look ahead to AMAN-25, the Pakistan Navy is eager to engage in deeper collaboration with Iran, especially through more focused bilateral and multilateral exercises,” Admiral Ashraf stated.

“As neighboring nations, we share a strong bond, and our mutual stance on maritime threats and challenges remains unwavering,” he added.

Admiral Ashraf highlighted his visit to Iran in 2021 and the reciprocal visit by Iran's naval commander to Pakistan in the summer of 2023. “The current level of cooperation between our naval forces is commendable, and I am optimistic that it will continue to grow,” he said.

Admiral Ashraf also discussed the evolving maritime security landscape in the region. He noted that the geopolitical environment remains unstable and complex, especially in the context of the region's growing geoeconomic competition.

“Our maritime security is closely linked to the rapidly changing dynamics of the Indian Ocean, and we must recalibrate our mutual interests accordingly,” he explained.

The Admiral also touched on the ongoing threats posed by actions in the Red Sea, particularly from Israel, which have escalated tensions and disrupted safe passage through vital maritime routes such as the Gulf of Aden.

“I believe neighboring countries can strengthen their collaboration within a focused regional maritime security framework to ensure that stability at sea is maintained through collective efforts,” Admiral Ashraf emphasized.

Further discussing regional security and naval capabilities, Admiral Ashraf highlighted Pakistan Navy's strides in domestic production, self-sufficiency, and technological advancements in shipbuilding, combat warships, missile systems, and commercial vessels.

He expressed a strong desire to partner with regional allies like Iran in areas of mutual interest, including advancing maritime technologies and capabilities. 

The multinational AMAN-25 maritime exercise is expected to draw over 50 nations, making it one of the most significant maritime exercises in the region.

The theme for this year is "Together for Peace," with a focus on strengthening regional and extraregional cooperation to maintain maritime order, enhance collective capabilities, and foster mutual understanding.

On Friday, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) naval forces have begun their solo large-scale military exercises in the southern provinces of Bushehr and Khuzestan, focusing on their coastal waters. 

In alignment with the guidance of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Iran's Armed Forces—comprising both the Army and the IRGC—have consistently been upgrading their military equipment and improving their operational readiness.

 

 

Pete Hegseth to become US defense secretary

According to Reuters, Pete Hegseth narrowly secured enough votes on Friday to become the next US defense secretary, a major victory for President Donald Trump after fierce opposition from Democrats and even some Republicans to his controversial nominee.

Hegseth was confirmed after a 50-50 vote in the Senate, when Vice President JD Vance came to the chamber to break the tie in his role as president of the Senate, after three Republicans joined every Democrat and independent in voting no.

Hegseth, a former Fox News personality and decorated veteran, is promising to bring major changes to the Pentagon. But his leadership will be under intense scrutiny after a bruising confirmation review that raised serious questions about his qualifications, temperament and views about women in combat.

"We have not had a secretary of defense like Hegseth before," said Jeremi Suri, a University of Texas, Austin, history professor and presidential scholar.

Hegseth is the most divisive candidate to clinch the US military's top job, a position that has historically gone to candidates with deep experience running large organizations and who enjoy broad bipartisan support.

It was only the second time in history a cabinet nominee needed a tie-break to be confirmed. The first was also a Trump nominee, Betsy DeVos, who became secretary of education in 2017.

The three Republican senators who voted against Hegseth were Senators Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Mitch McConnell, was the party's leader in the chamber until this month.

McConnell said Hegseth had failed to demonstrate that he had the ability to effectively manage an organization as large and complex as the military. "Mere desire to be a ‘change agent’ is not enough to fill these shoes," McConnell said in a statement.

Hegseth will lead 1.3 million active-duty service members and the nearly one million civilians who work for the US military, which has a nearly US$ one trillion annual budget.

Hegseth told lawmakers that, up until this point, the largest group he had managed was 100 people and the largest budget was US$16 million.

His nomination was rocked by a series of accusations, including one this week by his former sister-in-law, who said he abused his second wife to the extent that she hid in a closet and had a code word to use with friends if she had to be rescued. Hegseth strongly denied the accusations and his wife had previously denied any physical abuse.

 

PSX witnesses subdued activities

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experienced a marginally subdued week, with authorities proposing amendments to tax bill including increased restrictions on non-tax filers, barring them from the purchase of securities, investment in mutual funds, properties and even suspending their bank accounts. National Assembly panel is currently reviewing the proposals.

Benchmark KSE-100 index declined by 392 points, down 0.3%WoW to close at 114,880 points on Friday, January 24, 2025. However, trading volumes grew as compared to last week, reaching 699 million shares, up 25%WoW.

Several important data points came in during the week, including a Current Account Surplus of US$582 million for December 2024, taking cumulative 1HFY25 balance to US$1.21 billion.

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised PKR297 billion through T-Bills auction during the week, with 12-month yields dropping to 11.39%, down 41bps.

IMF revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3% and for 2026 to 4%, slightly downwards from previous projection.

On the external front, foreign exchange reserves held by SBP declined by US$276 million to US$11.5 billion. PKR weakened marginally against the greenback to close at PKR278.75 to a US$.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) GoP agrees terms for US$1 billion loan with 2 Middle Eastern banks, 2) Saudi firm agrees to invest up to US$1 billion in Reko Diq project, 3) Foreigners withdraw US$38.5 million from T-Bills by January 10, 4) Pakistan to float US$200 million panda bonds in June, 5) World Bank to lend US$20 billion to Pakistan, 6) Petrol price increases, and 7) Urea sales increases by 58%YoY during CY24 to 6.6 million tons.

Fertilizer, Inv. Banks, and Textile weaving were amongst the top performing sectors, while E&P, Jute, & transport sectors were among the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Banks at US$14.1 million. Foreigners and companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$11 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: FCCL, KTML, CNERGY, LOTCHEM, and MLCF, while laggards included: MARI, NRL, SAZEW, PGLC, and PIBTL.

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities, PSX is expected to remain on positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed income to equities amid falling fixed income yields.

The upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled on June 27, will remain a key focus.

Over the medium term, the KSE-100 index is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum throughout CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.

 

 

Iraq: Fire at Rumaila oilfield extinguished

A fire at Iraq's Rumaila oilfield was brought under control on Friday, the country's oil ministry said in a statement, adding that there were no serious injuries.

The fire started at a storage tank inside the oilfield's fifth gas station, "for unidentified technical reasons", the ministry said.

The station will operate again after checking all safety procedures and assessing the damages, the ministry added.

Three energy sources told Reuters that operations at the field had not been affected.

Two local oil workers suffered minor burn injuries, the sources said.

Production at Rumaila stands at about 1.45 million barrel per day (bpd), said two officials at the field.

 

Israel: Who will be new IDF chief?

Defense Minister Israel Katz intends to interview three candidates on Sunday to be the next IDF chief of staff. After IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi announced he would step down on March 06, 2025 it was expected that Katz would move quickly to select his replacement. Nevertheless, he threw a wrench into the works by adding dark-horse candidate Maj.-Gen. Tamir Yadai.

The Jerusalem Post and the other media outlets expected Defense Ministry Director-General Maj.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, who is a former deputy IDF chief of staff, and outgoing IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Amir Baram to be on the shortlist of candidates.

The Post and the other media outlets expected that the third candidate would be OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Uri Gordon. Yadai, who recently retired from the IDF after serving as OC Land Forces Command, appears to have made the shortlist instead.

Yadai previously served as OC Central Command, OC Home Front Command, and commanded several different divisions after spending most of his career in the Golani Brigade.

He is seen as a dark-horse candidate because, unlike Zamir and Baram, he has not been the deputy IDF chief of staff, nor has he commanded the Northern or Southern commands, which are considered to be the most important field command roles.

Having led Northern Command to a sensational victory over Hezbollah, Gordon was viewed as a top potential candidate. Nevertheless, Katz might have viewed him as being too close to Halevi.

Zamir and Baram are still considered to be the most likely choices, with Zamir being the lead candidate.

Being that Yadai is somewhat of an outsider with the fewest ties to Halevi, if he were chosen, it could signal a reshuffle of the top echelons of the IDF. That might facilitate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s desire to water down opposition to some of his policies.

 

 

Saudi Arabia promises US$600 billion to Trump

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told President Donald Trump that the kingdom wants to put US$600 billion into expanded investment and trade with the United States over the next four years, the Saudi State news agency said early on Thursday.

In a phone call between the two leaders, the crown prince said the Trump administration's expected reforms could create "unprecedented economic prosperity", the state news agency reported.

The report said Saudi Arabia wants its investments to capitalize on these conditions. It did not detail the source of the US$600 billion, whether it would be public or private spending nor how the money would be deployed.

The investment "could increase further if additional opportunities arise", the agency quoted Bin Salman as telling Trump.

Trump fostered close ties with Gulf states including Saudi Arabia during his first term. The country invested US$2 billion in a firm formed by Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and former aide, after Trump left office.

Trump said following his inauguration on Monday that he would consider making Saudi Arabia his first destination for a foreign visit if Riyadh agreed to buy US$500 billion worth of American products, similar to what he did in his first term.

"I did it with Saudi Arabia last time because they agreed to buy US$450 billion worth of our product. I said I'll do it but you have to buy American product, and they agreed to do that," Trump said, referring to his 2017 visit to the Gulf kingdom

 

 

Hezbollah and Amal agree to join Salam

Before the end of the 60-day Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement, and a week after Judge Nawaf Salam was assigned to form a new cabinet, meetings with parliamentary blocs are intensifying to dispel any obstacles, one of which is the Lebanese Forces’ insistence on monopolizing the ministries of foreign affairs and energy.

Reportedly, Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces (4 ministries), has also sent MP Melhem Riachi to meet Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam and know the details of the cabinet lineup. 

Salam informed Riachi that he was determined to strengthen his relationship with Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Parliament, based on a promising future and putting national interests above anything else.

For his part, President Joseph Aoun, despite announcing that he is not seeking any ministry for his team, insists on granting him the power to place a “veto” on the names nominated for the sovereign ministries of foreign affairs, defense and interior.

According to sources, the prime minister-designate is in talks with figures who are supposed to have chances to hold ministerial positions; they say he is seeking to form a “technocratic-political” cabinet.

Salam insists on not excluding any political stakeholders, so he intends to appoint representatives of these factions to ministerial portfolios, provided that they: 1) do not hold senior positions in these factions and 2) sign a pledge not to run in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Given that the Interior Ministry is the Sunni share, there is a deep disagreement between Sunni figures in this regard, especially as the minister will supervise the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 2026. 

Although Salam did not make any promise to appoint any Shiite figure outside the circle of the Hezbollah-Amal duo, he did not contact any of the so-called “Shiite opposition”, who saw an opportunity to find a foothold in the government. However, following the two meetings that brought Salam together with the duo, their US-prompted dream has faded.

The prime minister-designate further met with Mohammad Raad, head of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc; Hussein Khalil, the political assistant to the Hezbollah Secretary-General, and MP Ali Hassan Khalil, a representative of the Amal Movement. 

During the two meetings, Salam spoke at length about the Lebanese political system since independence from the French occupation in the early fifties, until the Taif Agreement, which ended the 1975-1990 civil war, stressing his view not to exclude any political component. 

The duo expressed their objection to the violations that accompanied his nomination, but showed their willingness to overcome that in order to preserve Lebanon's interests during this critical period.

In addition to the Ministry of Finance, the duo demanded a significant service ministry, such as the Ministry of Public Works or the Ministry of Health, expressing their complete readiness to cooperate with Salam.

Meanwhile, it is not clear whether the duo will be the ones to propose the names of the five ministers for the prime minister-designate to choose from or vice versa, knowing that the duo’s priority is the mechanism for governance and addressing urgent issues in the next phase.

Since the signing of the Taif Agreement, successive governments have made it a priority for the ministerial statement to clearly state the right of the Lebanese to resist and liberate the occupied territories. Therefore, one of the duo’s priorities is for the current ministerial statement to stipulate the righteousness of the resistance.

In light of the anti-Hezbollah team’s biased interpretations of UN Resolution 1701, the duo is keen for the ministerial statement to express the government’s commitment that President Joseph Aoun would conduct a comprehensive national dialogue regarding the Resistance movement’s weapons along the general national defense strategy.