Trump’s pick for key positions

President-elect Donald Trump has started filling key posts in his second administration, putting an emphasis so far on aides and allies who were his strongest backers during the 2024 campaign.

Here’s a look at some of the persons he has selected so far:

Susie Wiles, chief of staff

Wiles, 67, was a senior adviser to Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and its de facto manager.

Wiles has a background in Florida politics. She helped Ron DeSantis win his first race for Florida governor. Six years later, she was key to Trump’s defeat of him in the 2024 Republican primary.

Wiles’ hire was Trump’s first major decision as president-elect and one that could be a defining test of his incoming administration considering her close relationship with the president-elect. Wiles is said to have earned Trump’s trust in part by guiding what was the most disciplined of Trump’s three presidential campaigns.

Wiles was able to help keep Trump on track as few others have, not by criticizing his impulses, but by winning his respect by demonstrating his success after taking her advice.

Mike Waltz, national security adviser

Trump asked Waltz, a retired Army National Guard officer and war veteran, to be his national security adviser, a person familiar with the matter.

The move would put Waltz at the forefront of a litany of national security crises, ranging from the ongoing effort to provide weapons to Ukraine and escalating worries about the growing alliance between Russia and North Korea to the persistent attacks in the Middle East by Iran proxies and the push for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah.

Waltz is a three-term GOP congressman from east-central Florida. He served multiple tours in Afghanistan and also worked in the Pentagon as a policy adviser when Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates were defense chiefs.

He is considered hawkish on China, and called for a US boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing due to its involvement in the origin of COVID-19 and its ongoing mistreatment of the minority Muslim Uighur population.

Tom Homan, ‘border czar’

Homan, 62, has been tasked with Trump’s top priority of carrying out the largest deportation operation in the nation’s history.

Homan, who served under Trump in his first administration leading US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, was widely expected to be offered a position related to the border, an issue Trump made central to his campaign.

Though Homan has insisted such a massive undertaking would be humane, he has long been a loyal supporter of Trump’s policy proposals, suggesting at a July conference in Washington that he would be willing to “run the biggest deportation operation this country’s ever seen.”

Democrats have criticized Homan for his defending Trump’s “zero tolerance” policy on border crossings during his first administration, which led to the separation of thousands of parents and children seeking asylum at the border.

Elise Stefanik, UN ambassador

Stefanik is a representative from New York and one of Trump’s staunchest defenders going back to his first impeachment.

Elected to the House in 2014, Stefanik was selected by her GOP House colleagues as House Republican Conference chair in 2021, when former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney was removed from the post after publicly criticizing Trump for falsely claiming he won the 2020 election. Stefanik, 40, has served in that role ever since as the third-ranking member of House leadership.

Stefanik’s questioning of university presidents over antisemitism on their campuses helped lead to two of those presidents resigning, further raising her national profile.

If confirmed, she would represent American interests at the UN as Trump vows to end the war waged by Russia against Ukraine begun in 2022. He has also called for peace as Israel continues its offensive against Hamas in Gaza and its invasion of Lebanon to target Hezbollah.

Stephen Miller, deputy chief of staff for policy

Miller, an immigration hardliner, was a vocal spokesperson during the presidential campaign for Trump’s priority of mass deportations. The 39-year-old was a senior adviser during Trump’s first administration.

Miller has been a central figure in some of Trump’s policy decisions, notably his move to separate thousands of immigrant families.

Trump argued throughout the campaign that the nation’s economic, national security and social priorities could be met by deporting people who are in the United States illegally. Since Trump left office in 2021, Miller has served as the president of America First Legal, an organization made up of former Trump advisers aimed at challenging the Biden administration, media companies, universities and others over issues such as free speech and national security.

 

PSX creates new highs every week

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its bullish momentum throughout the week ended November 08, 2024 with the benchmark index closing at 93,291 points, up by 2.7%WoW, achieving it’s highest ever closing.

The momentum was fuelled by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) accelerating the pace of monetary easing with 250bps cut resulting in policy rate to end at 15% as inflation continues to fall towards the central bank medium term target range, providing impetus to cyclical sectors.

MSCI added eight Pakistani scrips while removing one from its MSCI FM Small Cap Index as part of its November review.

Furthermore, an IMF mission is scheduled to arrive Pakistan for the first review of the US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which was originally due in March 2025 but will take place four months ahead of schedule.

Cement offtakes for October 2024 was reported at 4.36 million tons, up 9%YoY. 

Workers’ remittance remained robust and reported at US$3.0 billion for October 2024, taking 4MFY25 remittances to US$11.8 billion (up 35%YoY).

Foreign exchange reserves held by SBP increased by US$18 million WoW to US$11.2 billion as of November 01, 2024.

Average daily trading volume rose to 896.1 million shares from 682.8 million shares traded a week ago, up 31.2%WoW.

On the currency front, PKIR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Qatar to invest US$3 billion in diverse sectors 2) exports up 13.45%YoY to U$10.88 billion during first four months of the current financial year, 3) Eurobond sale planned for the next financial year, 4) Tax exemptions in FY24 amounted to PKR3.8 trillion, and 5) GoP to raise PKR8.7 trillion debt to pay maturing loans.

Refinery, Exchange traded fund, Jute, Mutual Funds and Paper & Board were amongst the top performers, Synthetic & Rayon, Tobacco, Real Estate Investment Trust, Banks & Leather & Tanneries.

Major net selling was recorded by Individuals with a net sell of US$13.6 million. Mutual Funds emerged major buyers with net a net buy of US$22.0 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: PIBTL, HCAR, BOP, PKGS. and FCEPL, while top laggards included: SCBPL, IBFL, FABL, SRVI, and HBL.

Continuation of monetary easing due to disinflationary environment and improving macroeconomic environment is likely to make investment in equities more appealing.

Aforementioned factors, along with declining external financing requirement under the IMF program, would keep foreigners’ interest alive.

AKD Securities recommend sectors that benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms. However, modest economic recovery may limit the upside for cyclicals.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, MCB, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

Yemen downs another US Reaper drone

Yemeni air defense units have shot down another US MQ-9 Reaper drone over the northern province of al-Jawf, the 12th aircraft of its kind destroyed by the country's forces so far.

The drone designed for intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance was downed while flying over the region early Friday, Yemeni media outlets reported. 

The US military acknowledged the videos circulating online showing what appeared to be a flaming aircraft dropping out of the sky and a field of burning debris in what those off-camera described as an area of al-Jawf province. The military said it was investigating the incident, declining to elaborate further.

Yemeni forces have surface-to-air missiles capable of downing aircraft. The country's Ansarullah movement has been a key component of the “Axis of Resistance” that includes Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.

Reapers, which cost around US$30 million apiece, can fly at altitudes up to 50,000 feet (15,240 meters) and have an endurance of up to 24 hours before needing to land. The aircraft have been flown by both the US military and the CIA over Yemen for years.

Yemenis have declared their open support for Palestine’s struggle against the Israeli occupation since the regime launched a devastating war on Gaza on October 07 last year, killing at least 43,469 Palestinians to date. 

Yemen's armed forces have said that they won’t stop their attacks until Israeli ground and aerial attacks in Gaza end. They have targeted more than 90 Israeli-linked vessels with missiles and drones since the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip started in October 2023.  

Ansarullah maintains that it targets ships linked to Israel, the United States or the Britain to force an end to Israel’s war on Gaza.  

In October, the US military unleashed B-2 stealth bombers to bomb Yemen in support of Israel.

 

Israel: Prolonged war becomes unsustainable

Israel’s economy, already straining under the costs of an ongoing war, now faces new turbulence as Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was fired earlier this week.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision sends a troubling message to investors as Israel grapples with mounting debt, credit downgrades, and slowing growth.

This unexpected shift is causing concerns about Israel’s economic stability. Credit rating agencies have downgraded Israel’s rating, warning of the potential risks to those considering investment.

At a time when stability is key to sustaining investor confidence, signals like these make it even harder for Israel to project resilience and security on the global stage.

These economic realities impact everyday Israelis the most. The costs of war are immense—not only for soldiers and security but for essential services, the cost of living, and the ability for struggling families to stay afloat.

 

 

 

No difference who wins election in the US

President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday that it "does make a difference" for Iran who has won the presidential elections in the United States, noting Iran and its political system is reliant on its own power and its great and noble nation.   

It was the first reaction by the Iranian president since Donald Trump won the White House in the presidential elections on November 05.

Pezeshkian added, "In developing our relations with other countries we will never have a 'closed or limited' view."

The president said Iran prioritizes developing ties with Muslim and neighboring countries and deeply believes in fostering unity among Islamic nations.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeili Baghaei also said on Thursday that Iran will judge the new US government on the basis of its policies and approaches.

Baghaei said Trump's victory has provided an opportunity for the United States to reassess its "wrong policies".

 

Trump's Victory: Implications for Pakistan

Donald Trump’s second term as the US President is expected to have profound impact on geopolitics and global asset/ commodity prices, which would ultimately have implications for the ongoing macro recovery in Pakistan.

There is a high probability of a “clean sweep” by the Republican Party (it is likely to take control of both the US Senate and House), which will give Trump greater ability to execute his campaign pledges.

Trump’s policies – cracking down on immigration and large import tariffs on China – are expected to be inflationary for the US economy and negative for global growth. If he is able to bring a quick end to both the wars, in Ukraine and Gaza, oil prices are likely to continue falling under the weight of weakening global demand.

There are various caveats to these expectations:

Global experts point to the strength of US institutions in checking/ taming some of the draconian policies Trump has pledged. Second, China has begun rolling out huge stimulus measures, both fiscal and monetary, to revive its ailing economy (particularly its large property sector). This could serve as a boost to global commodity prices.

For Pakistan, the prospect of lower or stable oil/ commodity prices is positive. US-China trade war improves the opportunity to attract Chinese industries into Pakistan. Certain exports out of Pakistan, including steel and textiles, may become more competitive in the US. But, it could be a challenge for Pakistan to execute CPEC Phase 2 in the face of deteriorating US-China relations.

At this stage, the event does not materially affect outlook of continued macro stability in Pakistan – continued disinflation and foreign exchange reserves buildup – and equity market re-rating,

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Inter Market Securities:

Oil prices are more likely to fall or stabilize around US$70/bbl over the medium term. Trump is likely to encourage greater shale oil production in the US, while at the same time, he would work to bring an end to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Global inflation could make a comeback as Trump promises to slap up to 60% import tariffs on China and up to 20% from elsewhere. He has also committed to deport illegal immigrants from the country – which could stoke another round of labor shortage in the United States.

US interest rates may remain elevated as the resurgent inflation could lead to a slowdown of rate cuts in the US, leading to a stronger greenback against other major currencies. This could mean that global equity flows into the emerging and frontier markets would remain weak.

Raising debt through Eurobonds could therefore become difficult for Pakistan. The USD index has appreciated 5% since September, while the US 10-year bond yield has risen to 4.5% from 3.6% by end September – both have risen in anticipation of Trump’s re-election.

Global growth could be slower and commodity prices, depressed if Trump administration impose higher import tariffs on China, then growth in China could be undermined (notwithstanding the stimulus measures the Chinese government has recently begun rolling out. This would spell an extended period of down-trending commodity prices and a global oversupply in some key commodities (steel, petrochemicals) and products (EVs).

Weak US participation in achieving global climate goals could reverse or slow down the recent trend of multilateral lenders (IMF, WB and ADB) ramping up loans to developing economies for building defense against climate change.

Possible implications for Pakistan

A decline in global commodity prices would maintain the dis-inflationary trend in Pakistan. However, a fresh wave of global inflation will be felt in Pakistan through a stronger greenback and imported inflation. At this stage, the brokerage house maintains it outlook for average inflation in Pakistan over the next 12 months to be around 9% and expect the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to cut the policy rate up to 11% by June 2025.

US-China trade war could make some exports out of Pakistan more competitive in the US, compared to imports from China. These would include HVA textiles, flat steel, tires and cement. However, if PKR-US$ remains stable while other regional currencies depreciate against the greenback, it could undermine the competitiveness of Pakistani exports.

Pakistan could see greater Chinese FDI. As Chinese industries would continue to set up facilities outside China to avoid import tariffs, some could potentially be set up in Pakistan. However, for this to happen, Pakistan would have to offer a more stable policy environment to Chinese investors, and the government may have to drop plans to renegotiate the power tariffs of CPEC power plants, in our view.   

 

Trump's comeback is remarkable

Donald Trump completed an extraordinary comeback early Wednesday morning, becoming the first president to win nonconsecutive terms in more than a century by defeating Vice President Harris in an unprecedented battle for the White House. The comeback is remarkable for a host of reasons.

The 45th president’s political career seemed to be over after he sought to overturn his 2020 election defeat and spurred his supporters to march on the Capitol, an event that led to a riot and the evacuation of Congress.

Trump became the first president ever to be twice impeached; was charged in four separate criminal cases; was found liable for sexual abuse in a civil case; and was convicted in criminal court of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

But Trump was buoyed by a fervently loyal support base — most of whom believe his narrative that he has been unfairly victimized by a corrupt political, legal and media establishment.

“We overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible,” Trump told supporters during his West Palm Beach, Fla., victory speech in the early hours Wednesday, calling his win “a magnificent victory for the American people.”

He also gained from public dissatisfaction with President Biden’s record.

It all went wrong from early on for Harris

The writing was on the wall from early in the evening for Harris.The first warning sign was a very early call that Trump would win Florida. The result itself was no shock — but the fact Trump was winning by roughly double the 6-point edge that polling averages had predicted was ominous for the Democratic nominee.

The pro-Trump pattern continued for much of the night, with supposedly safe Democratic states such as Virginia and even New Jersey hanging undecided for uncomfortably long stretches for Team Harris, while Trump jumped into early leads in every swing state.

Harris left her event at Washington’s historic Howard University without speaking publicly. She was expected to speak later Wednesday.

Latino men swing heavily to Trump

Much media coverage in advance of Election Day had focused on whether Trump would make inroads with Black voters, especially Black men, or with younger voters.

In fact, changes within those demographic groups were modest — at least according to the current exit polls, which may still shift somewhat as fresh data is added.

But there was one real shock. Latino men shifted toward Trump by a breathtaking margin, according to the CNN exit polls.

In 2020, those exit polls showed Latino men voting for Biden over Trump by a 23-point margin, 59 percent to 36 percent.

The current iteration of Tuesday’s CNN exit poll showed them voting for Trump over Harris by a 10-point margin, 54 percent to 44 percent.

The astonishing 33-point swing is going to lead to a lot of searching and uncomfortable questions among Democrats.

Trump supporters will contend that his cultural conservatism and promise of a better economy helped turn the tide.

But that explanation doesn’t really make sense of why Latina women shifted only very slightly in their partisan support.

It’s tough to find a plausible argument that doesn’t include some level of sexism.

Harris, of course, now becomes the second female Democratic nominee to lose to Trump, after Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The abortion issue failed to make the difference

A lot of Democratic hopes were riding on the idea that women would come out in unprecedented numbers to elect the nation’s first female president, just two years after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade. It didn’t happen.

There was a wide gender gap, to be sure — but the exit polls so far don’t indicate it was bigger in a meaningful way than four years ago.

On the contrary, women went for Biden over Trump by 15 points in 2020, according to the CNN exit polls. So far this year, the exit polls show Harris carrying female voters by just 10 points.

That doesn’t mean abortion has been transformed into a winning issue for Republicans — it hasn’t.

For example, a ballot initiative on abortion in Florida didn’t get the 60 percent supermajority it needed to pass. But a clear majority, about 57 percent, lined up on the liberal side of the question.

Still, the bottom line is that the abortion issue didn’t prove nearly as potent as Harris needed it to be.

There will be serious Democratic infighting

The result is a cataclysm for Democrats. Their nominee has lost to a man whom many in their party consider an active danger to American democracy. So, the finger-pointing will immediately begin.

Many Democrats will dwell on the sequence of events that led to Biden’s withdrawal from the race in July. That came after a debate debacle in late June.

The number of people who believe the president would have done better than Harris is vanishingly small. But his decision not to step aside after one term — and the party’s lack of appetite for a competitive primary against him — will be second-guessed by those who feel such a process would either have strengthened Harris or produced a better nominee.

The messaging of the Harris campaign will also be subject to harsh scrutiny.

Did she spend too much time arguing Trump was a “fascist” in a way that was merely preaching to the choir?

Was the attempt to win over disaffected Republican voters by campaigning with conservative figures such as former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) always doomed to fail?

Would a more vigorous concentration on working-class concerns have helped stanch Trump’s appeal, or would a more adventurous media strategy have paid dividends?

At some level, it’s possible these questions are unfair. Maybe the headwinds Harris faced on the economy — and as the deputy of a president with mediocre poll ratings — were just too stiff to overcome.

But that won’t stop those questions from being asked.

Trump might well have unified GOP government

Trump will have a Republican majority in the Senate — and quite possibly in the House as well.

Democrats were always going to have a hard time in the upper chamber, where they were on the defensive in several red-leaning states.

Deeply red West Virginia was always a near-certain loss once Democratic-turned-Independent Sen. Joe Manchin announced he would retire. Republican Gov. Jim Justice was duly elected there.

Elsewhere, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) lost his seat to GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. Incumbent Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) are in trouble too, though they could yet rally and prevail.

In the House, the picture remained unclear in Wednesday’s early hours, and may take several days to be settled. But it is certainly possible that the Republicans could retain a narrow majority.

If that comes to pass, it would complete a remarkable sweep by the GOP.

Courtesy: The Hill