Israel getting desperate to attack Iran

Since October 07, 2023 Israeli citizens have been holding their collective breath, knowing that the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and incessant fire exchanges on the northern border could escalate into a full-scale regional war at any moment.

The mysterious attack in Lebanon on Tuesday, in which thousands of pagers in the use of Hezbollah operatives exploded, apparently killing at least 11 and wounding thousands more, has made that possibility more likely than ever.

A war with the Iranian-backed militia to Israel’s north could quickly expand into war with Iran, which has yet to avenge the assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July, despite Islamic Republic leaders vowing a response.

Israel, in turn, stated it would exact a heavy price from the Iranian regime were it to carry out a significant attack against the Jewish state.

Maj-Gen. (res.) Itzhak Brik is adamant that war with Iran now would lead to Israel’s destruction.

Security expert Yair Ansbacher is convinced that war with Iran at this point is a must – to avoid Israel’s destruction.

This is the fork in the road that Israel faces today, 11 months after Hamas initiated the horrific October 07 attack, in which 1,200 Israelis and other nationals were murdered and 250 more were taken hostage.

Additional factors such as the apparent exhaustion of negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire agreement, and the Israeli government’s decision earlier in the week to make the return of displaced northern residents an official war goal, have increased the likelihood of a regional war.

Speaking to The Jerusalem Post on the phone earlier in the week, Brik warned that Israel is not prepared for a multi-front war.

“Iran and its proxies have 250,000 missiles, rockets, and drones encircling Israel. Which means about 4,000 munitions hitting the Israeli home front on a daily basis, population centers, Haifa Bay, water and electricity facilities, gas fields [in the Mediterranean Sea], IDF bases, and strategic civilian infrastructure. A regional war can ruin the State of Israel,” he stressed.

Brik further warned that Israel would enter this all-out war alone, without the aid of the United States.

“Iran is backed by Russia, China, and North Korea, who don’t want to lose their [Iranian] asset,” he said, explaining that the US will avoid getting involved in a war that could develop into a world war.

What Israel should do, he advised, is build a strategic alliance with Western and moderate Arab nations that will form a “deterrence balance” against Iran and its partners. Trying to thwart the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capacity is futile, he added, which “is a development that can’t be stopped.”

Ansbacher views the situation differently. He is certain that now is the right time to strike Iran, before it makes its final nuclear breakthrough.

“If today the West has little success in taming the ayatollahs, it will have zero success when they obtain nuclear weapons,” he said via Zoom with the Post last week.

“Iran will provide a nuclear umbrella to terrorists across the globe. Imagine Hezbollah kidnaps [IDF] soldiers on [Israel’s] northern border, and before Israel launches a rescue operation, Hezbollah sends a message that this could result in a nonconventional missile attack. This is a scenario that we cannot accept,” Ansbacher stipulated.

In addition, the possibility of a hostile US administration come the November election, along with the inferior position Iran found itself in after the October 07 attack – exposing its plan to annihilate Israel – means that Jerusalem must now use this narrow opportunity to strike Iran, he noted.

“Tehran’s original plan was to attack Israel simultaneously [on all fronts], and that would have brought us to the brink of extinction. But their plan was disrupted when [Hamas head] Yahya Sinwar jumped the gun. This puts Iran in a weakened position. If the plan had fully worked, Israel would have been caught unawares, with all arms of the octopus around its neck. Then it’s checkmate. But the plan’s disadvantage was its extended period of implementation where many things could go wrong,” Ansbacher said.

Attacking Iran now is Israel’s last chance before it faces an existential threat of a nuclear Islamic Republic, he stressed. If Israel hits Iran in its two centers of power, Tehran and Qom, he added, the Iranian regime, largely unsupported by the nonreligious population, will very likely fall.

Who will be the next prime minister of Japan?

With nine candidates, Japan's ruling party holds its most crowded leadership race ever on September 27, 2024. Among those running for Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president are two women. Many of the candidates have served as defense and foreign ministers as well as in other senior government and party positions. The winner will be rubber-stamped as Japanese prime minister when parliament reconvenes in early October.

A million local LDP supporters, representing less than 1% of the Japanese population, will have the same say as the LDP's 368 party legislators in the initial round of voting. But as no candidate is expected to secure a majority at that stage, the vote of the legislators will then gain much more weight in a runoff between the two frontrunners.

While the LDP sees the leadership race as a way to choose the face of the party ahead of an expected general election in coming weeks, other parties are not just standing by. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party has scheduled its own leadership election on September 23. In addition, LDP coalition partner Komeito recently changed its leader for the first time in 15 years.

Five of the LDP's six intraparty factions, which played an influential role in previous presidential elections, have decided to dissolve in the wake of a political funding scandal that came to light late last year. With factional control thus weakened, it has become easier for candidates to enter the leadership contest. The winner will succeed Fumio Kishida and be appointed Japan's 102nd prime minister at the Diet, where the party holds the most seats in both the upper and lower houses.

The result of the vote could bring a generational change. At 43, former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi is a prominent candidate. As well as being the son of Junichiro Koizumi, one of Japan's best-known prime ministers internationally, Koizumi would become the country's youngest prime minister since the 19th century.

Japan could also have its first woman prime minister, with two female members of Kishida's cabinet standing, including Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba is making fifth try for the top job, receives a lot of backing from local LDP supporters. 

Former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba ranked the best choice to lead the party, overtaking Shinjiro Koizumi in a recent opinion poll conducted after the nine candidates were confirmed. Hawkish Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, who sees herself as an heir to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, ranked third among all survey respondents.

Sanae Takaichi is the most popular choice among stock market pros to become Japan's next leader, according to a monthly survey. Takaichi led the poll with 29% of responses, as market participants were hopeful the lawmaker would pursue economic policies similar to "Abenomics" -- those of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. 

Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba proposed US military bases in Okinawa prefecture be managed jointly with Japanese forces, saying so in a public forum among all candidates. The security discussion comes as China ramps up military pressure on Taiwan and expands its maritime presence in the East and South China seas.

 Courtesy: Nikkei Asia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sri Lankan go to crucial poll today

Sri Lankans are going to the polls to elect a president today (Saturday), at a time when the country is struggling to emerge from the worst economic crisis it has faced since gaining independence in 1948.

Sri Lankans have suffered a turbulent few years. Fed up with severe shortages of essentials such as food and medicines, and lengthy power cuts, they took to the streets for months in 2022. Those protests culminated in the storming of the presidential palace in July that year, forcing former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country.

United National Party's Ranil Wickremesinghe assumed the presidency then and is standing as an independent now. He faces three other main competitors -- National People's Power (NPP) candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Samagi Jana Balawegaya's (SJB) Sajith Premadasa and Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna's Namal Rajapaksa, scion of the powerful family that had dominated the nation's politics for over two decades.

Here are four things to know about the election:

What is the key issue on voters' minds?

Top of voters' concerns is economic stability and growth. The 17.1 million registered voters want to know how to improve their financial health and the plans the next government has to target the corruption they blame for their misery. Although shortages have eased, Sri Lankans still face high costs of living and a squeeze on public spending as the Wickremesinghe administration restructures the country's debt to meet conditions laid out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout. Sri Lankans largely blame the Rajapaksas for the state of the economy. The Supreme Court ruled late last year that Gotabaya and Mahinda Rajapaksa were among 13 former leaders guilty of economic mismanagement that led to the crisis.

Who are the main candidates?

A total of 38 candidates have entered the race, although there are only four main contenders. Antiestablishment opposition parliamentarian Dissanayake, leader of NPP, an alliance of left-leaning groups, has captured the imagination of many voters.

Competing with him is another parliamentary opposition leader, Premadasa, leader of SJB, a center-left alliance.

The main candidates have assured voters they will not tear up the IMF's economic recovery blueprint, but voters are wary of the austerity measures required for Sri Lanka's US$3 billion bailout. As such, many are leaning toward positions offered by Dissanayake and Premadasa to tweak the IMF's benchmarks to provide economic relief to impoverished millions.

Premadasa told The Associated Press that his party was already in discussions with the IMF to ease the tax burden on the poor.

Trailing them are two candidates who are considered pillars of the status quo and seemingly out of step with the public: the incumbent Wickremesinghe and Namal Rajapaksa, nephew of Gotabaya and son of another former president, Mahinda.

Some, however, credit Wickremesinghe for stabilizing and even growing the economy. Sri Lanka reported on September 13 that its economy expanded 4.7% year-on-year in the April quarter.

Saturday's election will also bring Sri Lanka's strategic location into sharp focus, as Asian rivals India and China have stakes in the outcome.

A victory for Dissanayake, whose main constituent party has Marxist and revolutionary roots, is expected to pave the way for Beijing to regain some of the foothold it has lost to New Delhi during the Wickremesinghe presidency.

India, according to Colombo-based diplomatic sources, prefers a Premadasa presidency.

How will the winner be decided?

Voter turnout for presidential elections typically hovers in the healthy 70% range, sometimes higher. Traditionally, voters choose one of two main candidates. The candidate with the majority of votes -- 50% plus one vote -- will be named president. This time, though, there are four main competitors, meaning a scenario could arise in which no one candidate reaches the majority threshold. As such, voters are asked in this election to mark the numbers 1, 2 and 3 against their top three choices. In the event no one wins a majority, the election will go to a second round, which only involves an additional count. The two candidates with the most votes in the first round will be pitted against each other. Ballots that had either one of them as their second or/and third choices will be added to their tallies. The one with the highest total will win the election. There is no time limit for the second round.

Why is there anxiety about the transition of power?

Concerns about a smooth transition of power have once again emerged, as they did after previous polls. Sri Lankans are worried that any period of political uncertainty after a potential second round could leave room for exploitation by political opportunists within the incumbent government.

Courtesy: Nikkei Asia

 

 

 

PSX benchmark index up 3.5%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) continued its positive momentum, buoyed by last week’s key catalysts of interest rate cut and Pakistan’s inclusion on the IMF executive board agenda. Consequently, the benchmark index reached an all-time high, closing at 82,074 points with a weekly gain of 2,741 points, up 3.5%WoW.

Overall, the bullish sentiment was predominantly driven by high-dividend-yielding sectors including Banks, E&P, and Fertilizers, as falling fixed-income yields led to a rerating of these sectors.

Current account balance for August 2024 posted a surplus of US$75 million, largely underpinned by a 40%YoY increase in remittances. Additionally, exports also remained higher during the month, with growth largely supported by an annual increase of 13% in Textile and 40% in Food exports.

Subsequently, LSMI activity also rose by 2.4%YoY in July 2924, with Textiles and Food driving output expansion.

The GoP reduced POL prices for the fourth consecutive time, lowering these by over PKR80/liter compared to same period last year. This consistent decline in POL prices is expected to further alleviate inflationary pressures.

The rejection of all bids in recent T-Bills auction and the less-than-target acceptance in the PIB auction, along with declining yields, would potentially shift liquidity toward equities.

On the international front, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates after four years by 50bps.

Market participation declined by 22.6%WoW, with the average daily traded volume dropping to 469 million shares from 607 million shares in the earlier week.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback, closing the week at 277.8/US$.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) ADB assures Pakistan US$2 billion annually in loans, 2) FDI rises to US$350 million in first two months of the current financial year, 3) Power demand slumps 17%YoY in August, and 4) In PIBs auction PKR111 billion was raised against PKR200 billion target.

Top performing sectors were Pharmaceuticals, Commercial Banks, and Fertilizer, while Woollen, Cable & Electrical Goods, and Engineering were amongst the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$23.2 million. Mutual Funds absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$15.5 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: MARI, SHFA, HBL, MEBL, and MCB, while laggards included: SML, YOUW, WFUG, TGL, and PIBTL.

IMF Executive Board’s approval, along with continued monetary easing would keep equities in focus, with the market trading at an attractive P/E of 3.7x and a DY of 13.2%. The completion of the FTSE rebalancing would further boost investor confidence.

AKD Securities recommends sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yielding stocks, which are expected to relate as yields align with fixed-income returns.

Israel claims destroying over 1000 ready-to-launch rockets in Southern Lebanon

IDF fighter jets struck hundreds of rockets that were ready for immediate launch into Israeli territory, the IDF announced on Thursday night.

Starting on Thursday afternoon, a total of about 100 rocket launchers and other military infrastructure were attacked, including about 1,000 rockets that were ready for immediate launch, the IDF said. 

Three Lebanese security officials told Reuters that these were "the heaviest aerial strikes since the conflict began in October last year."

According to reports in Lebanese media, cited in Israeli media, the number of attacks ranged from about fifty to seventy throughout Lebanon in only about twenty minutes. 

These strikes come only days after the far-reaching Hezbollah communications explosion, spanning two days, wounding thousands and killing at least 30 people.

Hezbollah threatened to respond, with leader Hassan Nasrallah live streaming a speech on Thursday in which he goaded Israel, daring it to attack.

"We are waiting for you to enter Lebanese territory. We are waiting for your tanks and will see this as a historic opportunity.”

Nasrallah's speech was dripping with symbolism with references to Surah Al-Hajj, verse 39, which permits Muslims to fight defensive wars, to the red background symbolizing revenge.

These strikes, in combination with the explosions, are only the latest series of defeats that pose serious questions for the organization.

Fuad Shukr, one of the most senior Hezbollah commanders, was assassinated in July, for which Hezbollah threatened vengeance.

Hezbollah's planned retaliation at the end of August was thwarted by an IDF preemptive strike involving more than 100 strikes across the south of the country.

 

Israeli Cyber Attacks Cripple Hezbollah

In unprecedented covert operations, Israel triggered explosions on thousands of pagers and hundreds of walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters and followers in back-to-back attacks on September 17 and 18, 2024.

Both attacks targeted Hezbollah in at least three strongholds—Beirut, the eastern Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. Some pagers also detonated in neighboring Syria. In a speech on September 19, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that "retribution will come."

The escalation was the single largest blow to the Lebanese militia, which is Iran’s most important ally in the Middle East. It also signaled Israel’s growing shift from the Gaza war in the south to the tense 49–mile northern front with Hezbollah—and potentially a turning point for war in the wider Middle East.

Shortly before the pagers exploded on September 17, Israel announced that the Security Cabinet had decided to expand its military focus.

“The center of gravity is shifting northward, meaning that we are increasingly diverting forces, resources, and energy towards the North,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on September 18.

Military strikes along the northern border have intensified since the outbreak of the Gaza War on October 07, 2023, as Hezbollah fired rockets almost daily on northern Israel.

Some 70,000 fled Israeli towns, farms and kibbutzim with long-term impact on the economy, schooling, and security. Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon have led some 112,000 residents to flee villages, town and farms.

The Israel operations seriously degraded Hezbollah’s ability to communicate with its fighters as Israel mobilized forces closer to the northern border. The pager attacks:

·         Injured almost 3,000 Lebanese

·         Killed at least 12, including two children

·         Injured Mojtaba Amani, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, who reportedly lost one eye and injured the other

·         Overwhelmed Lebanese hospitals

Arab news outlets reported that the explosives were pre-planted in the AR-924 pagers, which were produced in Hungary on a license from Gold Apollo, a Taiwanese company. Hezbollah pledged retaliation for the “sinful assault, both in ways that are expected and unexpected.”

The walkie-talkie attack the next day was smaller in scale but a further humiliating blow to Hezbollah and, potentially, its military capabilities. The walkie-talkie operation:

·         Injured at least 608

·         Killed at least 25

·         Sparked fires in Beirut’s southern suburbs as well as the Bekaa Valley

·         Added to stress on Lebanese health facilities

The United States and the European Union expressed alarm about the operations. In Cairo, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned all parties against actions that would intensify regional hostilities.

“We remain very clear about the importance of all parties avoiding any steps that could further escalate the conflict that we’re trying to resolve in Gaza to see it spread to other fronts.  It’s clearly not in the interest of anyone involved to see that happen,” he said at a joint press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. “It’s imperative that all parties refrain from any actions that could escalate the conflict.”

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell condemned the operations for endangering Lebanon’s stability and increasing the risk of regional escalation. 

“Even if the attacks seem to have been targeted, they had heavy, indiscriminate collateral damages among civilians, including children among the victims,” he said in a statement after meeting with the Lebanese foreign minister on Sept. 18, 2024. “I consider this situation extremely worrying.”

In contrast, President Masoud Pezeshkian condemned the use of pagers as tools for “assassination and annihilation.” The attack “once again showed that western nations and Americans fully support crime, killings, and blind assassinations by the Zionist regime,” he said in a cabinet meeting on September 18, according to the presidential website.

Israel has pledged to continue military operations against Hezbollah, the most experienced and well-armed non-state actor in the world, until it withdraws from the border and ends rocket and missile strikes.

Hezbollah, in turn, has vowed not to stop until the Gaza war ends. Between October 2023 and mid-September 2024:

·         Hezbollah launched more than 8,000 rockets and more than 450 drones at Israel.

·         Israel carried out more than 7,000 strikes in Lebanon.             

Both sides have suffered deaths and casualties. At least 25 Israeli civilians and 21 soldiers have been killed in Hezbollah attacks.

Israel had already been linked to the deaths of at least 48 senior Hezbollah commanders and more than 430 operatives between October 08, 2023 and September 17, 2024.

Israel killed Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s most senior commander and a close advisor to Nasrallah, on July 30. At least 137 civilians in Lebanon have reportedly been killed in Israeli strikes.

 

Courtesy: United States Institute of Peace

UN General Assembly demands Israel ends occupation of Palestinian territories

The UN General Assembly has adopted a Palestinian-drafted, non-binding resolution demanding Israel end "its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory" within 12 months.

There were 124 votes in favor and 14 against, including Israel, along with 43 abstentions. As a non-member observer state, Palestine could not vote.

The resolution is based on a July advisory opinion from the UN's highest court that said Israel was occupying the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip against international law.

The Palestinian ambassador called the vote a turning point “in our struggle for freedom and justice”. But his Israeli counterpart denounced it as “diplomatic terrorism”.

Although the General Assembly’s resolutions are not binding, they carry symbolic and political weight given they reflect the positions of all 193 member states of the UN.

It comes after almost a year of war in Gaza, which began when Hamas gunmen attacked Israel on October 07, 2024, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 others as hostages.

More than 41,110 people have been killed in Gaza since then, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

There has also been a spike in violence in the West Bank over the same period, in which the UN says more than 680 Palestinians and 22 Israelis have been killed.

The advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) - which was also not legally binding - said a 15-judge panel had found that "Israel's continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory is unlawful” and that the country was “under an obligation to bring to an end its unlawful presence... as rapidly as possible”.

The court also said Israel should “evacuate all settlers from the Occupied Palestinian Territory” and “make reparation for the damage caused to all the natural or legal persons concerned”.

Israel has built about 160 settlements housing some 700,000 Jews in the West Bank and East Jerusalem since 1967.

The court said the settlements “have been established and are being maintained in violation of international law”, which Israel has consistently disputed.

Israel's prime minister said at the time that the court had made a "decision of lies" and insisted that “the Jewish people are not occupiers in their own land”.

Wednesday’s General Assembly resolution welcomed the ICJ’s declaration. It demands that Israel “brings to an end without delay its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory... and do so no later than 12 months”, and “comply without delay with all its legal obligations under international law”.

The West Bank-based Palestinian Authority’s foreign ministry described its passing as a “pivotal and historic moment for the Palestinian cause and international law”.

The support of almost two-thirds of UN member states reflected “a global consensus that the occupation must end and its crimes must cease”, and that it “reaffirmed the Palestinian people’s inalienable right to self-determination”.

Israel’s foreign ministry called the resolution “a distorted decision that is disconnected from reality, encourages terrorism and harms the chances for peace”, adding, “This is what cynical international politics looks like.”

It said the resolution “bolsters and strengthens the Hamas terrorist organization” and “sends a message that terrorism pays off and yields international resolutions”.

It also accused the Palestinian Authority of “conducting a campaign whose goal is not to resolve the conflict but to harm Israel” and vowed to respond.

The US, which voted against the resolution, warned beforehand that the text was “one-sided” and “selectively interprets the substance of the ICJ’s opinion”.

“There is no path forward or hope offered through this resolution today. Its adoption will not save Palestinian lives, bring the hostages home, end Israeli settlements, or reinvigorate the peace process,” Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said.

The UK’s ambassador, Barbara Woodward, explained that it had abstained “not because we do not support the central findings of the ICJ's advisory opinion, but rather because the resolution does not provide sufficient clarity to effectively advance our shared aim of a peace premised on a negotiated two-state solution”.