Speculation about Trump’s running mate

Former President Donald Trump told reporters Saturday he’s made up his mind about who will be his running mate in November, but he has yet to tell anyone who it is.

Trump told NBC News ahead of a rally in Philadelphia that he’s settled on a vice presidential choice.

“In my mind, yeah,” Trump said when asked if he’s decided.

Asked if his pick knows it’s them, Trump responded, “No, nobody knows.”

The selection process for Trump’s running mate has ramped up in recent weeks as several candidates received vetting materials from the campaign. Trump has said he may announce his choice at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next month.

Sources familiar with the process told The Hill the front-runners for the position are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Sen. J.D. Vance and Sen. Marco Rubio.

Others who received vetting materials and are under consideration include Sen. Tim Scott, Sen. Tom Cotton, Rep. Elise Stefanik, Rep. Byron Donalds  and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson.

Trump has praised each of those individuals at various times, though he has downplayed the impact his selection might have on the end result in November.

“It’s never really had that much of an effect on an election,” Trump told Fox News earlier this year.

 

US to back Israel in war with Hezbollah

Senior US officials assured a delegation of top Israeli officials visiting Washington this week that the Biden administration is fully prepared to support its ally in case of a full-scale war with Hezbollah, reports CNN.

The Biden administration has consistently claimed that it wants to avoid a war between Israel and Hezbollah, advocating for diplomatic de-escalation. This week, US envoy Amos Hochstein was sent to the region in an attempt to supposedly help ease tensions.

The media outlet noted that top Israeli officials, including Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi, held meetings with Biden administration officials such as National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk.

Sources revealed that the Israeli and American officials discussed various topics, including the situation along the border with Lebanon, Iran, and ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations.

The senior administration official mentioned that US officials emphasized that the Biden administration would provide Israel with the necessary security assistance, but noted that American troops would not be deployed on the ground.

The official indicated that in this week's meetings US and Israeli officials discussed potential strategies to reduce tensions along the Blue Line separating southern Lebanon and northern occupied Palestine, including discussions on returning displaced Israeli settlers and Lebanese citizens to their homes.

The talks coincided with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's public accusations that the US was withholding weapons and ammunition from Israel, leading to a tense exchange between Israeli and US officials.

On Wednesday, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned that the possibility of invading al-Jalil remains on the table should the confrontation with Israel escalates on the borders with northern occupied Palestine.

"The enemy knows it must expect us on land, in the air, and at sea, and if war is imposed, the Resistance will fight without constraints, rules, or limits," he made it clear during the memorial service for senior Hezbollah commander Sami Taleb Abdallah and his companions, who were martyred days earlier in an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon.

A day before, the Military Media of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon - Hezbollah published footage showing its reconnaissance drones flying over swathes of occupied Palestinian land, including Kiryat Shmona, Nahariya, Safad, Karmiel, Afula, all the way to Haifa and its port.

Titled "This is what the Hoopoe came back with," the nine-minute-and-a-half video captured footage and exposed sensitive Israeli sites. Hezbollah indicated that the video was only the first episode of more yet to come, highlighting that the drones bypassed Israeli air defenses and returned to Lebanese airspace undetected.

Shortly after Hezbollah published the video, the Israeli military said that operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated. Senior Israeli commanders also decided to accelerate the readiness of the forces on the ground, according to the military statement.

 

Trump points the cause of Ukraine conflict

Russia’s intervention in Ukraine was triggered by the irresponsible and provocative rhetoric of US President Joe Biden and his administration about Kiev joining NATO, said Donald Trump.

Trump, who is seeking a rematch with Biden for the presidency in November, made the comments during a conversation on foreign policy with ‘All-In’ podcast co-host David Sacks on Thursday.

“For 20 years, I heard that if Ukraine goes into NATO, it’s a real problem for Russia. I’ve heard that for a long time. And I think that’s really why this war started,” Trump said. 

The Republican presidential candidate pointed out that there had been no talk about armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine when he was in the White House, but as soon as Biden replaced him, things began to deteriorate.

“I thought that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be – well, look, he’s a good negotiator, I thought he was going to be doing that for negotiation purposes,” Trump said. “Then all of a sudden, they attacked, and I said, ‘what’s going on here?’” 

According to the former president, one of the key issues was the rhetoric coming out of the White House.

“Biden was saying all of the wrong things. And one of the wrong things he was saying ‘no, Ukraine will go into NATO’,” Trump said.

Sacks pointed out that in January 2022 or thereabouts, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Moscow that Ukraine would join NATO and that Washington thought it was OK to put nuclear weapons there. “So no wonder the Russians hit the roof,” he noted.

“Well, let’s say you were running Russia. You wouldn’t be too happy,” Trump replied. “And that’s always been off the table. It’s always been understood that that was a no-no,” he added, addressing Kiev’s potential NATO membership.

Floating the idea of Ukraine in NATO was “very provocative,” Trump said. “And now it’s even more provocative. I hear routinely they’re now talking about Ukraine entering NATO. And now I hear France wants to go in and fight. Well, I wish them a lot of luck!”

Putin has specifically pointed to Western statements about Ukraine’s possible membership in the US-led bloc as a security threat Moscow could not ignore. Ukraine’s neutrality has been one of the non-negotiable Russian conditions for the conflict to end.

NATO has argued that its “open door” policy is essential and that no one had the right of veto over it, but also that its expansion eastward was not the cause of the conflict. 

In an interview with Time magazine earlier this month, Biden claimed that the US is “the strongest nation” because of NATO expansion, and that he told Putin he would get “NATOization of Finland” instead of “the Finlandization of NATO” during their June 2021 summit in Switzerland.

Russia’s intervention in Ukraine was triggered by the irresponsible and provocative rhetoric of US President Joe Biden and his administration about Kiev joining NATO, Donald Trump has said.

 

 

 

Russia: Gazprom boosts oil trade

Russian gas giant Gazprom fresh from an annual loss of US$7 billion, has increased its activity in the oil business to offset weaker natural gas trade over the past year, reports Reuters.

Kremlin-owned Gazprom has suffered from the loss of the European gas market, once the source of around two-thirds of its gas revenue, due to a deep rift between Russia and the West over the conflict in Ukraine.

It also cut natural gas production by 13% to an all-time annual low of 359 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023 from 412.94 bcm in 2022.

Gazprom's oil arm, Gazprom Neft has fared better than the parent company thanks to the flourishing oil business.

Now Gazprom Group, via its Gazprom Export division, is trying to raise its exposure to the oil business and increased handling of Asia-bound ESPO oil grade as well as Siberian Light oil exports.

Russian oil exports have been a stable profit maker for Moscow during the past two years despite Western sanctions, as Russia was able to diver to India and China.

Gazprom Export, which was a minor oil exporter prior to 2022, has boosted oil exports in the second half of 2023 and plans to increase shipments even more in 2024.

Gazprom's oil pipeline exports have doubled in 2023 and are expected to double again in 2024.

Russia's Pacific port of Kozmino is a key outlet for Gazprom's crude exports. ESPO Blend oil exports provide one of the best revenues for Russian oil producers compared to other routes thanks to premium quality of the grade and proximity to main customers in Asia.

Gazprom's oil loadings from Kozmino have jumped from between 30,000 metric tons and 50,000 tons per month last year to around two to three 100,000-ton vessels per month this year. These volumes are supplied in addition to the exports of Gazprom Neft, which is also an ESPO Blend oil exporter.

In May 2024, Gazprom also loaded 80,000 tons of Siberian Light grade from Novorossiisk and the company plans to continue diversifying its oil supply.

In May, the company started production at the Urengoysky oilfield that is expected to produce 1.5 million tons of condensate per year.

 

 

US aircraft carrier arrives in South Korea

A nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier, the Theodore Roosevelt, arrived in South Korea's port city of Busan on Saturday for joint military exercises this month with the host nation and Japan, reports Reuters.

The visit comes seven months after a South Korea trip by another US aircraft carrier, the Carl Vinson, in a show of extended deterrence against the North's nuclear and missile programs.

The leaders of the three nations agreed at a Camp David summit in August 2023 to hold annual military training drills as they condemned China's "dangerous and aggressive behaviour" in the disputed waterway of the South China Sea.

Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea this week for the first time in 24 years and signed a deal with leader Kim Jong Un that included a mutual defence pledge.

It was one of Russia's most significant moves in Asia for years, which Kim described as amounting to an alliance.

 

Hezbollah fighters ready to join war, Nasrallah

Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah has played down Israel’s threats of waging a full-scale war against the Lebanese resistance group.

Speaking at a ceremony to commemorate senior Hezbollah commander Taleb Abdullah as well as three other resistance fighters who were martyred in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon over a week ago, Hezbollah leader said Israel can only talk about waging such a war but is incapable of conducting it.

Nasrallah added that Hezbollah does not want a total war with Israel but issued a warning in the face of such a scenario. 

He said Israel must prepare for attacks from the ground, air and sea, and that the situation in the Mediterranean will change completely if it decides to get engaged in a full-blown conflict with Lebanon. 

The Hezbollah chief warned that no place in Israel would be spared from the resistance group’s weapons in case of a direct war. He said Hezbollah would fight with “no rules” and “no ceilings”.

 He noted that the resistance group carries out attacks against the regime to support Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. 

“We will continue to support Gaza and we are ready for anything. We are not afraid. Our demand is clear “A complete and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.”

Hezbollah and Israel have been trading fire since October 08, 2023 the day after Israel declared war on Gaza following a surprise military operation conducted by Hamas in southern Israel. 

Hezbollah reiterated that it won’t stop its attacks against Israel unless the regime ends the war of genocide on Gaza which has so far claimed the lives of some 37,400 Palestinians. 

Israel has repeatedly warned that it will go to direct war with Hezbollah if it continues attacks against the regime. 

The latest of such threats were made by Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz.

“We are getting very close to the moment of deciding to change the rules of the game against Hezbollah and Lebanon. In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed, and Lebanon severely beaten,” Katz claimed on X on Tuesday. 

His threat came after Hezbollah released footage showing its reconnaissance drones flying over sensitive Israeli sites in areas such as Haifa port. 

Hezbollah said the drones bypassed Israeli air defenses and returned to Lebanese airspace without being detected.

The footage captured by the Hezbollah drones stole the limelight at major news outlets. 

Analysts have said the move has exposed Israel’s vulnerability and humiliated the regime. 

Further in his remarks, Nasrallah said the footage is just a short and selected excerpt from long hours of recorded videos captured above Haifa. 

The Hezbollah leader added that Israeli leaders are not willing to admit the magnitude of the military and economic damage they have received at the hands of Hezbollah resistance fighters.

Nasrallah also said the number of Hezbollah operatives who are ready to join the war has exceeded 100,000.

The Hezbollah chief also threw a spotlight on Israel’s failure to achieve its military goals in Gaza. 

Israel claims to be the strongest army in West Asia but has failed to defeat Hamas, he said. 

Since declaring war on Gaza on October 07, 2023 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to achieve “total victory” over Hamas and “destroy” the resistance group.

Netanyahu’s dreams have so far remained elusive as Hamas has put up resistance against Israeli forces and dealt severe blows to the regime in the Gaza battlefield.    

 

LNG vessel begins journey through Red Sea

According to Reuters, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessel has commenced journey through the Red Sea after crossing the Bab al-Mandab Strait this week, a rare occurrence for LNG shipments following attacks by Yemeni Houthis on ships in the area.

The Asya Energy vessel passed by Yemen through the Bab al-Mandab Strait on June 18, shiptracking data from LSEG and Kpler showed, the same week as a second ship believed to have been hit by Yemen's Houthi militants sunk.

"Asya Energy is the first LNG tanker to sail through the Bab el Mandeb strait since January this year when LNG voyages through the Red Sea were suspended amid repeated rocket attacks," said LSEG analyst Olumide Ajayi, adding that data showed that the ship is carrying cargo.

Most LNG tankers have avoided taking this route after Houthis launched repeated drone and missile strikes in the Red Sea region. They describe their attacks, which have since expanded to other busy waterways, as acts of solidarity with Palestinians in Israel's war in Gaza.

The Red Sea is linked to the Mediterranean by the Suez Canal, creating the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia, and is connected to the Gulf of Aden by the Bab-el-Mandeb strait between Yemen and Djibouti.

Palau-flagged Asya Energy is heading for Gibraltar, according to Kpler data. It previously called at the Sohar port in Oman, LSEG data showed. It was not immediately clear who is chartering the ship.

Nur Global Shipping manages the ship which is owned by Lule One Services, data on Equasis showed.

Nur Global Shipping did not immediately respond to a request for comment when contacted on LinkedIn.

Reuters could not find contact information for Lule One Services.

The Asya Energy vessel may soon become the first vessel to sail through the Red Sea passage since January 12, 2024 after waiting around the coast of Oman since mid-January, said Ana Subasic, natural gas and LNG analyst at data and analytics firm Kpler.

"At present, AIS (automatic identification system) signal feed to our platform shows the ballast vessel has set a course towards the Gibraltar checkpoint - although I would take this with a grain of salt, it is too early to be making an accurate prediction," she said.

"We are keeping a very close eye on it and waiting for more ad-hoc raw signals or market sources to feed in."

Leading industry groups have called for urgent action to be taken in the Red Sea to stop attacks on merchant shipping by Houthis.

The UK-owned Rubymar was the first ship sunk by the Houthis. It went down on March 02, about two weeks after being struck by missiles.