Sensitive Israeli installations exposed

Lebanon’s Hezbollah on Tuesday released footage showing its reconnaissance drones flying over swathes of occupied Palestinian land, including Kiryat Shmona, Nahariya, Safad, Karmiel, Afula, all the way to Haifa and its port.

Titled "This is what the Hoopoe came back with," the nine-minute-and-a-half video captured footage and exposed sensitive Israeli sites, Al Mayadeen reported. 

Hezbollah indicated that the video was only the first episode of more yet to come, highlighting that the drones bypassed Israeli air defenses and returned to Lebanese airspace without being detected.

The published footage included intelligence information about Israeli sites inside occupied Palestine and clearly showed that the drone arrived at the port of Haifa, undetected.

Hezbollah's drones brought back footage and information about sensitive sites they captured over Haifa starting with the port itself to oil refineries and military factories, not to mention the locations of military battleships and important economic hubs in the port.

In detail, the video first shows Hezbollah's drones flying over a military-industrial complex belonging to Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, which includes numerous factories, warehouses, and testing fields in which components of air defense systems are manufactured and assembled, especially the Iron Dome and David's Sling.

Iron Dome and David's Sling platforms, rocket engine test tunnel and storage, air defense missile storage, missile component manufacturing facilities, control and guidance systems factories, company administrative buildings, and missile testing radars were all filmed in the video.

According to Hezbollah, the area is highly vital and sensitive, occupies an area of around 6.5 km2, and is 24 km away from the Lebanese-occupied Palestinian border.

The video also included an overview of Krayot, an Israeli suburb north of occupied Haifa, which includes six occupied cities with a population of 260,000 Israeli settlers. Hezbollah published a complete high-definition view of the urban conglomeration there, with a real-time tour detailing Krayot districts and neighborhoods, including residences of Israeli officials and commercial complexes.

The scenes also filmed the Yitzhak Ben-Tzvi Street, Karti Square, Savyonei Yam complex, and Abraham Gardens towers.

Hezbollah’s drones reached Haifa port ‑ the largest in the occupied territories ‑ and captured footage of the Haifa port Bay area, a highly valuable economic and trade area that hosts massive military installations, industrial infrastructure, and commercial areas.

The area includes the Haifa military base, which is the main naval base for the Israeli occupation forces which is responsible for the northern naval front, as well as Iron Dome storage and platforms, petrochemical facilities, oil silos, the Haifa power station, and Haifa airport.

The Haifa Port area includes ship maintenance hangars, the building of Unit 3800 at Haifa Naval Base, main warehouse and supply section at the Haifa Base dockyard, the Yaltam Unit building, submarine unit buildings, submarine dock and mooring, and the Sheyetet 7 submarine unit command building.

Hezbollah video filmed the Karmiel and Mizrahi piers, as well as container ships and port operations.

The drone footage has stolen the limelight at major news agencies. 

Al Jazeera said the video could deal humiliating blows to Israel.  “This is a humiliation – this is how it is being described by some even in Israel on how this drone was able to get all these detailed images from cities in northern Israel,” the news network said. 

Hezbollah has sent surveillance and attack drones into Israel in the past eight months as it exchanges fire with the Israeli military in response to the regime’s war on Gaza.

 

China: Emerging Naval Might

China’s naval expansion and bolstering of its shipbuilding capabilities may give the PLA a strategic edge in a potential conflict, including the “hellscape strategy” floated recently by the United States.

Raymond Kuo, director of the Rand Corporation’s Taiwan Initiative, said that China, alongside Japan and South Korea, has the “largest shipbuilding industry in the world” and can produce completed hulls at a faster rate than the US.

While American ships tend to be more complex and have greater displacement … China’s ability to relatively rapidly produce naval ships means that it can reconstitute any combat losses more quickly than the United States can, he said.

“The PLA have an additional advantage in that any conflict over, say, Taiwan or the South China Sea would be much closer to their shores.”

According to an analysis of satellite imagery published by the Paris-based Naval News in late May, China’s 10th Type 055 destroyer – its most advanced warship and prime aircraft carrier escort – was recently launched by naval builder Dalian Shipbuilding.

Since the first Type 055 was commissioned in 2020, the first batch of eight is in service and construction of the second batch is well under way, with the ninth reportedly launched late last year.

The Naval News said the shipbuilder has also launched five Type 052 destroyers, all assembled in a single large dry dock, while the same yard was also responsible for modernization work on the Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier, until the middle of April.

A report earlier this month from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies said China’s “massive shipbuilding industry would provide a strategic advantage in a war that stretches beyond a few weeks”.

According to the report, China would be able to repair damaged vessels or construct replacements much faster than the US, “which continues to face a significant maintenance backlog”.

The report noted that the US would probably be unable to quickly construct many new ships or to repair damaged fighting ships in a great power conflict.

The launch of China’s new destroyer coincided with a ramping up of US efforts to develop a drone strategy to create what Admiral Samuel Paparo described this month as a “hellscape” in the Taiwan Strait to counter any mainland attack on the island.

Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary. Like most countries, the US does not recognize Taipei’s government but is committed to supplying arms for the island’s defence.

Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said the US plans to use a large, lethal drone force to distract China’s military and buy time for the US to defend Taiwan in the case of an attack.

But Washington would have “a lot of work to do” before it could carry out the strategy, including ramping up military stockpiles and increasing production of drone swarms, said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“One shouldn’t forget that you still need to neutralise the Chinese ability to project force on Taiwan … you have to even take out the Chinese ability to sustain the war,” he said.

“For example, you would have to, say, destroy the shipyards if necessary. There will still [be a requirement for] the US to invest in other force projection capabilities, like long-range precision-guided munitions – for example, cruise missiles.”

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said a Taiwan contingency would depend in part on whether the US reverses its declining shipbuilding capability.

The US Naval Institute said in 2021 that the US has just seven shipyards that can build large warships, while China has more than 20, along with dozens of commercial facilities that dwarf the largest US shipyards in size and throughput.

According to Davis, it’s “conceivable” that a larger, more powerful and well armed PLA Navy could allow China to win a prolonged conflict, simply through its “quantitative and firepower advantage”.

“And geography benefits China with the US having to project force across the Pacific into China’s maritime approaches,” he said.

“Also, the relative strength needs to be considered in a broader context of China’s anti-access and area denial capabilities, including land-based long-range missiles, more advanced air power, counter-space capabilities, and cyber and electromagnetic operations.”

The Type 055 destroyer – also referred to as a missile cruiser because of its size and capabilities – is 180 metres in length with a beam of 20 metres and has a displacement of around 13,000 tons at full load.

It features 112 vertical launch system cells – an advanced system for holding and firing missiles on mobile naval platforms – housing the HHQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missiles and the YJ-18 anti-ship missiles.

Footage revealed in April 2022 showed a Type 055 test-firing China’s latest hypersonic anti-ship missile, the YJ-21.

According to Koh, the import and indigenization of foreign technology has made Chinese shipyards more “mature” and the increased production of Type 055 destroyers would allow the PLA Navy to deploy them with “greater regularity”.

However, he pointed out that there still remains the question of “how good they are”, with China’s ability to sustain its rapidly growing naval fleets undetermined.

“The only question is that … each of these Type 055 destroyers is also quite expensive. So the question of course arises whether China can even sustain the construction with its current economic issues.”

 

 

 

 

 

Russia becomes top gas supplier to Europe

According to some cynical views, the Ukraine war, allegedly orchestrated by Victoria Nuland and deep state energy interests, aimed to replace Russia with the United States as Europe's primary gas supplier. The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline seemed to support this theory. However, this effort appears to have failed.

In May 2024, Europe’s gas imports from Russia once again surpassed those from the US for the first time in nearly two years, despite Europe’s attempts to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels since the Ukraine invasion. Factors contributing to this include eastern European countries relying on Russian imports and others bypassing sanctions for cheaper energy.

“It’s striking to see the market share of Russian gas and LNG inch higher in Europe after all we have been through,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at consultancy ICIS. Despite efforts to decouple, Europe remains reliant on Moscow for energy.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow cut its pipeline gas supplies to Europe, leading the region to increase LNG imports, primarily from the US. By September 2022, the US became Europe’s leading gas supplier, contributing about a fifth of the region’s supply by 2023.

In May 2024, Russian-piped gas and LNG accounted for 15% of the total supply to the EU, UK, Switzerland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia, while US LNG accounted for 14%, its lowest since August 2022.

The reversal in supply was influenced by factors such as an outage at a major US LNG export facility and increased Russian gas sent through Turkey. European demand for gas also remains weak, with storage levels high for this time of year. Some, like Marzec-Manser, believe this shift is temporary, expecting Russia to redirect LNG to Asia via the Northern Sea Route and US LNG production to rise.

The transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia ends this year, risking future gas flows. The European Commission supports expanding pipelines in the Southern Gas Corridor between the EU and Azerbaijan, but this route currently cannot replace the Russian gas flowing through Ukraine.

The EU’s energy commissioner, Kadri Simson, highlighted concerns about LNG being diverted to Asia and emphasized the EU’s preparedness to handle global gas market disruptions. She noted that EU gas storage remains high, and demand has stabilized at low levels, down 20% compared to 2021.

Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dissolved the six-member war cabinet, an Israeli official said on Monday, in a widely expected move following the departure from government of centrist former general Benny Gantz.

Netanyahu is now expected to hold consultations about the Gaza war with a small group of ministers, including Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer who had been in the war cabinet.

The move was announced as US special envoy Amos Hochstein visited Jerusalem, seeking to calm the situation on the disputed border with Lebanon, where Israel said tensions were bringing the region close to a wider conflict.

The Israeli military said on Monday it had killed a senior operative in one of Hezbollah's rocket and missile sections in the area of Selaa in southern Lebanon.

The military also said its operations were continuing in the southern parts of the Gaza Strip, where its forces have been battling Hamas fighters in the Tel Sultan area of western Rafah, as well as in central areas of the enclave.

Hochstein's visit follows weeks of increasing exchanges of fire across the line between Israel and Lebanon, where Israeli forces have for months been engaged in a simmering conflict with Hezbollah that has continued alongside the war in Gaza.

Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes on both sides of the Blue Line that divides the two countries, leaving eerily deserted areas of abandoned villages and farms hit by near-daily bombardment.

"The current state of affairs is not a sustainable reality," government spokesperson David Mencer told a briefing.

Netanyahu had faced demands from the nationalist-religious partners in his coalition, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, to be included in the war cabinet. Such a move would have intensified strains with international partners including the United States.

The forum was formed after Gantz joined Netanyahu in a national unity government at the start of the Gaza war in October. It also included Gantz's political partner Gadi Eisenkot and Aryeh Deri, head of the religious party Shas, as observers.

Gantz and Eisenkot both left the government last week, over what they said was Netanyahu's failure to form a strategy for the Gaza war.

An agreement to halt the fighting in Gaza still appears distant, more than eight months since the October 07, 2023 attack on Israel led by Hamas fighters that triggered Israel's military offensive in the Palestinian enclave.

Israel's offensive has killed more than 37,000 Palestinians, according to Palestinian health ministry figures, and destroyed much of Gaza.

Although opinion polls suggest most Israelis support the government's aim of destroying Hamas, there have been widespread protests attacking the government for not doing more to bring home around 120 hostages still being held in Gaza and against Netanyahu's handling of the war.

Protesters calling for new elections clashed with police in Jerusalem on Monday. By sundown, a crowd of thousands had gathered outside the Knesset, Israel's parliament, before marching to Netanyahu's private home.

Some protesters tried to break through barriers set up by the police, who pushed them back. At one point a bonfire was lit in the street, and police used water cannon to disperse the demonstration.

The northern border was relatively quiet on Monday, the second day of the Muslim Eid celebration, compared with previous days, when rocket fire set off widespread brush fires in heatwave conditions.

A survey for the Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem-based think tank, found 36% of respondents favouring an immediate strike against Hezbollah, up from 26% a month earlier.

Israeli aircraft and artillery have pounded southern Lebanon and last week killed a senior Hezbollah commander in a strike against a command and control centre that drew a further intensification of attacks.

In addition to attacks by missiles and anti-tank rockets, there has been a marked increase in drone attacks that have underlined the strength of the arsenal Hezbollah has built up since the last major conflict between the two sides in 2006.

 

China to target pork from European Union

China has announced an anti-dumping investigation into certain pork products imported from the European Union. The move on Monday follows the EU’s decision last week to raise tariffs on Chinese EVs by up to 38% from July 04, 2024.

The products under investigation include fresh, cold and frozen pork; pork offal; pig fat without lean meat; as well as pig intestines, bladders and stomachs, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce (Mofcom).

The investigation period on import dumping from between January 01 to December 31 of last year, while the period for evaluating industrial damage covers four years from the first day of 2020 to the last day of 2023, the ministry said.

Starting from Monday, the investigation should last no more than a year, but it could be extended for a further six months, Mofcom added.

The investigation was said to be initiated in response to a formal application from the China Animal Agriculture Association, which represents the domestic pork industry and requested an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork from the EU on June 06, 2024.

“After receiving the application, the investigation agency reviewed the application in accordance with relevant Chinese laws and regulations and in compliance with World Trade Organization rules,” a Mofcom spokesperson said on Monday.

“It believed that the application met the conditions for filing an anti-dumping investigation and decided to launch an investigation.

“The investigation agency will conduct investigations in accordance with the law, fully protect the rights of all interested parties, and make objective and fair rulings based on the investigation results.”

Gaza Pier: Publicity stunt doomed on day one

The United States is considering temporarily dismantling its humanitarian aid pier off Gaza for the second time due to poor conditions. Damaged and repaired twice already, the pier faces questions about continued UN use for aid distribution. Critics claim the objective of the pier was to distract attention from Israel’s ongoing destruction of Gaza and restricted aid access.

Scott Paul of Oxfam criticized the pier as a costly distraction from addressing critical humanitarian obstacles in Gaza. Israel’s war has led to blocked land crossings, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Despite limited US pressure, President Biden's administration reported no instances of Israel restricting aid.

Biden announced the floating pier to increase humanitarian assistance. However, critics argue it tacitly admits Israel’s systematic aid blockage while failing to address core issues. Aid agencies remain skeptical, emphasizing the need for overland routes. The Pentagon claims 2,500 metric tons of aid have been delivered via the pier, but this is only a fraction of pre-war aid levels.

The pier’s initial US$320 million cost, later reduced to US$230 million, drew criticism for high expenses amid blocked existing aid routes. Former US officials acknowledged the pier's symbolic gesture but noted it has not alleviated the crisis. The humanitarian pier, announced during Biden’s State of the Union address, faced damage from unexpected storms shortly after its opening.

The Israeli military’s recent massacre in the Nuseirat refugee camp further complicated the pier’s use. The presence of Israeli military helicopters near the pier raised concerns about the humanitarian operation’s integrity. The World Food Program paused aid deliveries from the pier following the incident.

In response to anticipated high seas, the pier is set for temporary dismantling and relocation to Israel. Delays, repairs, and suspended deliveries have marred the project, highlighting its ineffectiveness in addressing Gaza’s humanitarian needs.

In conclusion, the Gaza pier has been a costly, ineffective public relations effort, failing to address the core issues hindering humanitarian aid in Gaza. Sustainable overland routes and genuine political pressure on Israel are essential for resolving the crisis.

India: Dream of regional power threatened

India's 2024 general elections have marked a significant shift in the country's political landscape. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saw a decline in its dominance, could secure only 240 of 543 seats in the lower house, a drop from 303 seats in 2019. Despite this, Modi managed to secure a third term as prime minister, thanks to the support from allies within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which together hold 293 seats.

The Indian National Congress, previously nearing political irrelevance, made a strong comeback, winning 99 seats, almost doubling its previous count of 52. The coalition of parties known as INDIA, allied with Congress, now controls 234 seats. This resurgence indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment, away from the BJP's Hindu nationalist ideology.

The BJP's decline is notable even in its traditional strongholds like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, where it suffered substantial losses.

Several factors contributed to the BJP's reduced appeal:

Despite Modi's efforts to energize his base by inaugurating a controversial temple, the party's Hindu nationalist message failed to resonate as strongly as before.

Economic issues played a crucial role; the benefits of India's impressive 8% annual economic growth have not reached the average citizen, leading to widespread dissatisfaction.

Inflation and unemployment remained significant concerns, with a large portion of the population living near or below the poverty line.

Modi's leadership, previously seen as a unifying force capable of driving reforms and attracting foreign investment, now faces challenges due to the political uncertainty introduced by the election results.

The necessity for the BJP to rely on coalition partners complicates its ability to enact policy changes and maintain stability.

This political fragmentation could deter international businesses and investors, who had hoped India, would serve as a viable alternative to China.

The elections have underscored the limitations of ideology as political capital for the BJP. Voters have expressed their concerns over the party's religious nationalism and its impact on the country's stability and security, prioritizing economic issues over ideological ones.

BJP will have to navigate the complex task of balancing governance with its ideological commitments, a challenge made more difficult by its weakened parliamentary position.

This new political reality suggests a return to coalition governance, potentially hampering India's aspirations on the global stage.