Iran's trade with OIC member states

The value of the trade exchanges between Iran and the other 56 member states of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) reached US$61 billion in the past Iranian calendar year ended on March 19, 2024.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which was formed in 1972, has reached a position where, according to statistics, the future of the world's energy would be in the hands of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Shafeie said in his speech.

The head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) put the volume of the trade exchanges between Iran and OIC member states from March 21, 2023, to March 19, 2024, at 94 million tons.

Iran exported US$29 billion of products to these countries and imported US$32 billion worth of products from them, said Mohammad Rezvanifar while talking to IRNA.

The deputy minister of economy went on to say that the country’s export of products to the OIC members last year registered an 11% decline in value while the import of products from these countries increased 13% as compared to a year ago.

Among the OIC member states, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, Oman, Afghanistan, Malaysia and Indonesia were Iran’s major trade partners.

Back in May 2023, the former head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) stressed the need for establishing a joint Islamic market among OIC members over the next 10 years.

Addressing a gathering of the heads of OIC member chambers of commerce on the sidelines of the "Russia - Islamic World: Kazan Forum 2023" in Russia, Gholam-Hossein Shafeie said, “An important issue that has been discussed a lot in the past and the organization should pay attention to it in the current situation is the creation of a common Islamic market in the next 10 years, which can be achieved by concluding a free trade agreement among Islamic countries and removing tariff and non-tariff barriers.”

“Experts have worked on the Islamic market plan, and using the experiences and studies of these experts can definitely be a way forward,” he added.

 

Nicaragua asks ICJ to end German support of Israeli

Nicaragua has asked the International Court of Justice to order Germany to halt military arms exports to Israel and to resume its funding of the UN Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA, saying there is a serious risk of genocide in Gaza.

Nicaragua's agent ambassador Carlos Jose Arguello Gomez told the court Berlin had violated the 1948 Genocide Convention by continuing to supply Israel with arms after ICJ judges ruled it was plausible that Israel violating some rights guaranteed under the genocide convention during its assault on Gaza, Reuters reported. 

He told the judges that Berlin was ignoring its obligations under international law by continuing to provide military assistance to Israel.

The German government rejected Nicaragua's allegations.

Berlin is one of the major arms exporters to Israel, sending 326.5 million euros (US$353.70 million) in military equipment and weapons in 2023, according to Economy Ministry data.

 

 

 

 

Iran Conundrum

Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew said Khamenei was "trapped in a strategic conundrum".

"Iran must respond to restore deterrence and maintain credibility among its Resistance Front allies. But on the other hand, retaliating to restore deterrence would likely bring an even greater, and more destructive Israeli response, likely with US assistance," he said.

The Iranian sources said the United States had asked Iran to exercise restraint and allow space for diplomacy, cautioning Tehran that in the event of a direct attack it will stand by Israel.

Iran believes Netanyahu aims to draw Tehran into a war; therefore its retaliation could be a restrained one that avoids direct strikes on Israeli territory and may draw on Tehran's allies.

Reportedly, the US Middle East envoy has called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions with Israel.

A source familiar with the issue said the US might well agree to revived nuclear talks if that could prevent a conflagration.

“If we are talking about talks and not (about) reaching an agreement, then it would seem to be well worth the price if the payoff is minimizing the risk of a regional escalation into which the US would be dragged,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group said Iran’s dilemma was "to figure out how to retaliate in a way that it saves face without losing its head".

"Israel is much more unpredictable than the US," he said. "The Supreme Leader is clearly concerned that rather than delivering the deterrent effect he might hope to achieve, an attack on Israel may only fuel a counter-escalation he might have hoped to avoid."

 

Iranian president’s upcoming visit to Pakistan

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is scheduled to officially visit Pakistan on April 22, 2024. 

This diplomatic engagement comes amidst heightened regional interest, particularly as Pakistan prepares to embark on the construction of a gas pipeline linking Gwadar port to the Iranian border in the near future, according to WION News.

In an interview with the Tehran Times on March 15, the Pakistani ambassador to Iran, Muhammad Mudassir Tipu, emphasized the importance of strengthening the longstanding bond between Iran and Pakistan. 

Tipu also underscored the need for both nations to actively nurture and enhance their deep-seated connections which are rooted in history. 

“There is a very high level of political engagement going on between the two countries. The Iranian leadership sent very strong congratulatory messages to Pakistan when our new government was recently elected. So did Islamabad when parliamentary elections were held in Iran.  I think that shows that the relationship is in the right direction and that it’s being solidified, strengthened, and widened,” Tipu stated, adding that terrorism is one thing that the two states will focus on.

He added, "But there are also far more areas where we need more cooperation. There is a historical perspective that connects more than 300 million people in the two countries. We are connected through geography, history, and culture and I think both leaderships understand that and are determined to move forward and further diversify and expand relations. While we need robust cooperation to tackle terrorism, we should meanwhile not get fixated on it. We need to widen our horizons and make use of the countless opportunities we have to deepen our ties. This is what I am looking at as the ambassador."

 

Hamas making military history

After six months of brutal fighting and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis, multiple Israeli and western commentators have argued that Hamas is winning the war and making military history in the process.

Sir Tom Phillips, a former British diplomat who served as Ambassador to Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, wrote on April 09 2024 in Haaretz that Hamas had succeeded in its objective of obtaining the release of as many Palestinians held in Israeli prisons as possible, and of re-asserting themselves as a force to be reckoned with.

He added that Hamas had survived the IDF onslaught for longer than any war Israel has ever fought, and in doing so, they have thoroughly dented Israel’s much vaunted deterrent status. In brief, and with daunting potential long-term consequences for Israel, the IDF no longer looks invincible.

Hamas has blocked a potential normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which looked inevitable before the war began on October 07, 2023, and put the Palestinian issue back squarely on the international map after years of the Palestinian Authority (PA) failing to do so.

A final victory for Hamas, Phillip notes, is the “head-spinning speed of Israel’s post October 07 delegitimization in the eyes of many in the world.”

On April 08, Israeli journalist Amos Harel wrote in Haaretz that Israel’s primary goals in Khan Yunis haven’t been achieved.

Following the withdrawal of the 98th Division from the southern Gaza city, Harel noted that the Israeli army’s two goals were the capture of top Hamas officials in Gaza and the rescue of the Israeli captives currently held by the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza.

“The public should be told the truth. The enormous death and destruction the IDF is leaving behind in Gaza, alongside quite a few losses on our side, aren’t currently bringing us any closer to achieving the war’s goals,” he concluded.

In an analysis in Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli political analyst Nadav Eyal explained that Israel had wished to restore its power of deterrence, eliminate Hamas, and free the captives held by Hamas in Gaza. But none of these objectives have been achieved.

“Israel’s failure is not based on presenting the goals of the war – which were fully supported by all Western countries. The failure lies entirely in the execution,” Eyal wrote, adding that war is not won just by killing. A complementary political act is needed.

The first failure, according to the report, was the civilian suffering in Gaza.

“Those who want to overthrow the rule of Hamas in Gaza do not conduct a Roman-style revenge campaign; carry out a protective wall or retaliatory action as if it were the 1950s.”

The Israeli commentator also blamed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for his attitude towards Washington.

“Netanyahu’s public and evil confrontation with the Biden administration only emphasized Israel’s weakness,” he said.

Eyal also noted that Israel had become isolated in the international community and that even its allies in Washington and Brussels were beginning to turn against it.

“Not only has Israel lost support in most of the West, and is very close to an arms embargo from Europe, even among its great ally, the tectonic plates are in motion.”

On March 27, Israeli intelligence officials also noted the change in Washington. They told The Telegraph that the Israeli government’s stated goal to eradicate Hamas in the Gaza Strip has become unachievable after the US turned its back on Tel Aviv by abstaining during a UN Security Council (UNSC) vote earlier in the week.

“If you’d asked me this a month ago, I would definitely say yes we can eliminate Hamas because, at that time, the Americans were backing Israel,” an Israeli intelligence official told the British daily, reportedly suggesting this assessment had now changed.

The US doesn’t support going into Rafah, which they did before, so the cards right now are not good, meaning Israel has to do something dramatic and drastic to change the momentum and climate, highlighting that pressure is mounting on Israel to reach some sort of a deal, which means Hamas could survive. Both Hamas and the Iranians are playing on that.”

According to the official, the belief inside the Israeli security apparatus is that Hamas is focused on surviving until the summer, when the US election campaign will go into full gear.

Speaking on the Turkish channel Haber Global, military analyst and retired colonel Eray Gucuer also suggested Hamas is winning the war while discussing the Israeli withdrawal from Khan Yunis ahead of a presumed assault on Rafah.

“If the Israeli army really is in a situation where it could not attack Rafah except by withdrawing its brigade from Khan Yunis, this means that it effectively lost the ground war.”

“Israel, in this war, almost completely destroyed Gaza and killed thousands of civilians. However, the Qassam Brigades still exist. Until this moment, it has military superiority on the ground … no one with military experience can hide his admiration for the amazing tactics adopted by Al-Qassam… Indeed, they are writing history.”

“Imagine, since the beginning of the war in Gaza and until today, we still hear about Beit Hanoun and Ben Lahia, Al-Nasr neighborhood, and Al-Zaytoun neighborhood. Why? Because the Qassam operatives invented a tactic for the first time in my life that I have seen in the history of guerrilla wars,” he concluded.

 

Courtesy: Information clearing House

Indonesian entry in OECD linked to normalizing ties with Israel

According to Reuters, Indonesia is under pressure to normalize ties with Israel to become the 39th member of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.

It’s a move that needs the consent of all OECD countries, including Israel, which has been a member state since 2010.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz objected to Indonesia’s inclusion unless it made a gesture toward Israel, such as normalization. The OECD made normalization with Israel part of Indonesia’s requirements for OECD membership.

It’s a step that comes as Israel has become increasingly isolated on the international stage due to the Gaza war, and it had been presumed that it was not possible to expand its diplomatic ties until the end of that half-a-year conflict.

Israel and Indonesia have long had silent relations in trade and tourism but have otherwise been diplomatic foes on the international stage.

Indonesia had been expected to be one of the countries that would normalize ties under the Abraham Accords, with the former Trump administration promising them a billion dollars to do so.

Plans for the two countries to normalize ties had proceeded under the Biden administration but were scuttled as a result of the Israel-Hamas war, which began on October 07, 2023.

They were revived this winter through the OECD membership process. Among the signs of a shift in their relationship was Israel’s decision to allow Indonesia to participate in the airdrops of humanitarian aid into Gaza, a step it had denied Turkey, with whom it has diplomatic ties.

The OECD outlined its understanding of the role it would plan in the normalization process in a letter Mathias Cormann wrote to Israel, dated March 26.

“I am pleased to confirm that Council has formally agreed to a clear and explicit pre-condition that diplomatic relations must be established with all OECD Members before any decision to invite Indonesia to become a Member of the Organization,” Cormann wrote.

This means, he stated, that the final inanition to Indonesia to become an OECD Member will not be tabled for a decision by Council before diplomatic relations have been established with all OECD Members, he stressed.

“Moreover, I recall that in conformity with Article 16 of the OECD Convention, any future decision to invite Indonesia to become an OECD Member will require unanimity among all OECD Members, including Israel,” he wrote.

Katz, in a letter dated April 10 thanked the OECD. 

“I share your expectation that this process will be a transformative one for Indonesia. I am looking forward to a positive change in Indonesia’s policies in general and vis a vis Israel in particular, notably renouncing its discriminatory policies toward Israel and establishing bilateral diplomatic relations," said Katz.

Some people still believe Israel should eliminate Hamas

I was shocked to read an article that instead of retreating from its principles, the West should assertively support Israel's efforts to safeguard its citizens while seeking avenues for a lasting peace that addresses the legitimate grievances of both Israelis and Palestinians.

It says, the prevailing narrative in Western circles characterizes Israel's actions in Palestine as an unjustified onslaught, primarily due to the significant civilian casualties in Gaza. This perception, though flawed, is not unexpected, given Western society's empathy for the oppressed and its Judeo-Christian roots.

The critics are critical of West's abrupt shift from unwavering support to threatening withdrawal unless a ceasefire is agreed upon has jeopardized Israel's mission to dismantle Hamas.

They insist that despite concerns about the coherence of Israel's campaign, its goal to neutralize Hamas as a military force is both rational and achievable, having already incapacitated a significant portion of Hamas's arsenal. However, eliminating Hamas's network of fighters, often embedded within civilian areas, presents complex challenges and risks civilian casualties due to Hamas's use of human shields.

The supporters of Israel say that contrary to the liberal argument that wars against terror are futile, history demonstrates that military action can undermine terrorist ideologies. Hamas's defeat is not only technically possible but crucial for Israel and the broader Western world.

They accuse that since seizing control of Gaza in 2007, Hamas has evolved into a sophisticated terror organization capable of destabilizing the Middle East and posing a threat to Israel's security.

They insist, allowing Hamas to prevail would normalize terrorism as a viable political strategy and intensify internal conflicts within Israel. Additionally, it could divert attention from addressing larger security threats in the region, such as Iran's nuclear ambitions.

While Israel faces legitimate criticisms, such as restrictions on Palestinian movement and settlement expansion, these actions are primarily driven by security concerns rather than colonial ambitions.

They say by wavering in its support for Israel's right to self-defense, the West undermines its leadership role and succumbs to moral cowardice.

They claim it is crucial to recognize Israel's complex security challenges and refrain from pressuring for premature ceasefires that could leave Hamas intact and perpetuate the cycle of violence.