United States: Disrupter of Global Trade

Washington has taken further steps to increase pressure on Tehran. This time, the White House, despite the negative impact of its decisions on the global stage, has leveraged its political influence on Panama to counter Tehran’s expansion of foreign policy.

The US has opted to exert pressure on Panama to prohibit Iranian vessels, sanctioned by Washington, from flying its flag. During a visit to Panama on Wednesday, Abram Paley, Deputy Special Envoy in the US Office of the Special Envoy for Iran, stated that the measure aims to prevent ships from being utilized for what he termed as illegal actions.

Paley emphasized in a statement that the US is endeavoring to enhance the enforcement of sanctions as part of a broader diplomatic outreach campaign. "Iran and affiliated entities are attempting to circumvent sanctions here in Panama," he remarked. "They seek to exploit Panama's flag registry."

"We anticipate that the Panamanian government will continue to collaborate with us in accordance with their domestic legislation and international commitments," Paley added.

Washington's recent action follows shortly after Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji declared that Tehran's oil sales would remain unaffected by sanctions, even if Donald Trump were to win the US presidential elections in November.

Panama leads globally in providing flags of convenience, enabling shipping companies to register their vessels in countries with which they have no connection — for a fee and exemption from oversight.

It appears that the White House intends to reinforce the implementation of existing sanctions as the regional crisis escalates. This move by Washington stands in stark contrast to what Washington's Iran hawks call Biden's appeasement policy in West Asia.

The United States has consistently wielded its power as leverage to advance its interests, regardless of the potential repercussions on the regional and international scale. This approach is evident in the consistent US formula for intervening in the policy-making systems of other countries.

For instance, Washington's policy towards Caracas and the imposition of sanctions on Venezuela have served as tools for intervening in Venezuela's political system. Similarly, the US employs similar tactics in West Asia, as evidenced by the array of American military bases in the region and unwavering support for Tel Aviv. These actions reflect a policy that prioritizes Washington's interests above all else, irrespective of their broader effects.

The Biden Administration's pressure on Panama exemplifies this approach, indicating that Washington is not inclined to pursue diplomatic channels in its dealings with Iran. Instead, the primary objective appears to be preventing the Islamic Republic of Iran from expanding its political influence.

Despite the Biden administration's initial endorsement of a more conciliatory policy in West Asia and its expressed willingness to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally called the JCPOA, the White House has demonstrated a lack of political resolve to take concrete actions. Moreover, the Biden administration has yet to lift any sanctions on Iran, failing to demonstrate a tangible commitment to resolving issues through diplomatic means. 

The recent US stance in Panama and its maneuver in the Red Sea have triggered alarm bells regarding their potential ramifications on the seamless flow of global trade. What emerges from these developments is a pattern of US behavior wherein the pursuit of its own interests takes precedence, even at the expense of disrupting international commerce. 

Take, for instance, the situation in Panama. The US exertion of pressure seems to transcend the immediate issue at hand, instead serving as a means to constrain Iran's influence. This strategic maneuver underscores Washington's inclination to prioritize geopolitical objectives over the broader interests of global trade. Similarly, the US confrontational stance towards certain factions in the Red Sea region has stirred unnecessary friction along a crucial trade artery.

Such actions raise legitimate concerns about the US approach to international affairs. By prioritizing its own objectives over collaborative efforts aimed at fostering global economic stability, the US risks sowing seeds of discord that could have far-reaching consequences. Indeed, this prioritization of unilateral interests over multilateral cooperation threatens to set off a chain reaction of instability, imperiling the very foundation upon which the global economy rests.

As the world navigates through increasingly complex geopolitical terrain, it becomes imperative for nations to uphold principles of cooperation and mutual benefit. The recent US actions serve as a sobering reminder of the dangers inherent in a myopic pursuit of national interests at the expense of broader global imperatives. Only through concerted efforts to promote dialogue, understanding, and collaboration can we hope to safeguard the integrity of the global trade system and steer clear of the choppy waters of economic uncertainty.

 

 

Pakistan: Central bank remains cautious ahead of some key milestones

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained the policy rate at 22% for the seventh consecutive meeting. Despite considerable disinflation in February, the SBP chose to remain cautious. There remain risks to future inflation – from further increases in administrated prices (of energy) and tax measures in the FY25 budget could be inflationary. The decision was in line with market consensus.

Key reasons for the decision:

The outlook for GDP growth – in the range of 2-3% in FY24 – remains intact and is largely driven by the rebound in the agricultural sector (which does not respond to monetary policy), while the LSM growth has recently turned positive (down a moderate 0.5% YoY in 7MFY24).

Core inflation (urban), which had hitherto been sticky, fell to 18% in February from 20.5% in the earlier month, while urban wages growth has also slowed in recent months. Nonetheless, headline inflation remains elevated and warrants a cautious stance.

The external account has improved considerably as well. Current Account balance during July-January period was US$1.1 billion only, as compared to US$3.8 billion for the same period last year. This was mainly on the back of contraction in imports, down 11% YoY in 7MFY24 amid a slowing economy (also partly due to lack of flood induced imports last year).

Primary balance improved to 1.7% of GDP in 1HFY24 from 1.1% for the same period last year, on the back of strong growth in revenues and contained expenditure. The SBP considers the continuation of current fiscal consolidation as important to support the present monetary policy stance.

The decision was largely expected and thus will lead to a muted response from the equity and money markets.

Trends in the above macro indicators are encouraging and could support a first cut in rates in the April 2024.

However, a key factor for future monetary policy will be talks with the IMF for a new program, which may commence at the IMF-World Bank Spring meetings due 19-21 April 2024.

That will shape the FY25 Budget and whether the IMF demands further adjustments in energy prices and exchange rate during the negotiations.

 

 

Putin’s victory attracts mixed reactions

Western governments lined up on Monday to condemn Vladimir Putin's landslide election victory as unfair and undemocratic, but China, India and North Korea congratulated the veteran Russian leader on extending his rule by a further six years.

The contrasting reactions underscored the geopolitical fault lines that have gaped wider since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, triggering the deepest crisis in relations with the West since the end of the Cold War.

Arriving in Brussels on Monday, EU foreign ministers roundly dismissed the election result as a sham ahead of agreeing sanctions on individuals linked to the mistreatment and death of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

"Russia's election was an election without choice," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said at the start of the meeting.

Playing on Moscow's reference to its war in Ukraine as a special military operation, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Paris had taken note of the special election operation.

"The conditions for a free, pluralistic and democratic election were not met," his ministry said.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the election outcome highlighted the depth of repression in Russia.

"Putin removes his political opponents, controls the media, and then crowns himself the winner. This is not democracy," Cameron said.

France, Britain and others condemned the fact that Russia had also held its election in occupied regions of Ukraine that it claims to have annexed during the war.

The Kremlin dismissed such criticism, saying the 87% of the vote won by Putin during the three-day election showed that the Russian people were consolidating around him.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia's election had no legitimacy.

A White House spokesperson on Sunday said Russia's election was obviously not free nor fair. President Joe Biden has not yet commented.

In sharp contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping congratulated Putin, and said Beijing would maintain close communication with Moscow to promote the no limits partnership they agreed in 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine.

"I believe that under your leadership, Russia will certainly be able to achieve greater achievements in national development and construction," Xi told Putin in his message, according to Xinhua News.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi echoed that message, saying he looked forward to strengthening New Delhi's time-tested special and privileged strategic partnership with Moscow.

India and China, along with Russia, are members of the BRICS group of emerging economies that aims to challenge US domination of the global economy.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, accused by the West of supplying weapons to Russia, also extended congratulations to Putin, stressing their desire for further expansion of bilateral relations with Moscow.

In Africa, where the West has been struggling to win support for its efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war, some newspapers saw Putin's re-election as reinforcing the stance of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Those three states in the Sahel region have strengthened ties with Russia following coups in recent years at the expense of their traditional French and US allies.

"In Africa, this re-election could sound like a non-event, but given the context in the Sahel it takes on a particular meaning, because Putin embodies the new geopolitical balance of power on the continent with a growing (Russian) presence and influence," said Burkina Faso daily Aujourd'hui au Faso".

 

 

Netanyahu to defy allies on Rafah invasion

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reaffirmed his determination to launch an offensive in Rafah, defying international criticism. The city is crammed with some 1.5 million Palestinians from other parts of Gaza seeking refuge.

His comments come as the German chancellor, on a Middle East trip, restated his opposition to the plan.

Netanyahu said "no international pressure will stop Israel" from achieving all of its war aims.

"If we stop the war now before achieving all of its goals, the meaning is that Israel had lost the war and we will not allow this," Netanyahu told a meeting of his Cabinet.

He said Israel must be able to continue its war, with the aims of eliminating Hamas, releasing all hostages and ensuring Gaza "no longer pose a threat". "To do this, we will also operate in Rafah."

Netanyahu said the offensive in city at the southern tip of the Gaza Strip "will happen" and will take "several weeks". He also lashed out at his critics; saying to them is your memory so short?

"So quickly you forgot about October 07, the worst massacre committed against Jews since the Holocaust." Those attacks, in which about 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 were taken hostage from Israel, sparked the current war.

The Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza says more than 31,400 have been killed.

Israel's plans have been heavily criticized by the international community, with the UN and US also warning that a full-scale assault in Rafah could be disastrous.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the head of the UN's World Health Organization, on Friday appealed to Israel "in the name of humanity" not to launch such an attack on Gaza's southern-most city.

US President Biden has warned Israel against expanding its invasion in the city, calling it a "red line".

Nevertheless, Netanyahu's office approved plans for a military operation in Rafah on Friday, adding that the army was preparing for the evacuation of civilians.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it planned to move displaced Palestinians in Gaza to what it called "humanitarian islands" in the middle of the strip. It is not clear what the "islands" will look like, or how they will operate.

Ceasefire talks were expected to resume in Qatar in the coming days. Israel had planned to send a delegation to join the negotiations, but ministers were yet to agree on its mandate.

Workers migration from Bangladesh to Malaysia declines

According to The Bangladesh Chronicle,, workers migration from Bangladesh to Malaysia fell dramatically in the past months following Malaysia’s suspension of issuing electronic visas for aspiring migrants amid huge allegations of irregularities.

Malaysia kept hiring Bangladeshi workers suspended between September 2018 and August 2022 due to huge irregularities in the migration process on both sides.

The Southeast Asian country was the second top destination for Bangladeshi migrants after the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2023. 

While 351,683 Bangladeshis migrated to Malaysia in 2023, only 20,467 people migrated in the past two months.

Only 1,278 people migrated in the first 12 days of March, according to Bureau of Manpower, Employment, and Training data.

Migration experts said that Malaysia had suspended issuing electronic visas as allegations of syndicated market manipulation resurfaced.

State minister for expatriates’ welfare and overseas employment, Shofiqur Rahman Choudhury, said that the government was working to solve the problems.

‘We are trying to identify problems and find solutions,’ he said, adding that the government targeted sending more workers, giving skilled workers a priority. In the Malaysian system, a calling visa is needed to secure a job and complete the process, while an electronic visa is needed to enter the country.

The calling visa or demand note is issued by companies, while the authorities issue electronic visa.

Bangladesh Association of International Recruiting Agencies former secretary general Shameem Ahmed Chowdhury Noman said that over 40,000 people still have the calling visas but could not fly due to not getting electronic visas.

Experts said that the number of people having calling visas would be no less than 300,000.

Migration rights activists and sector insiders estimated that some 100,000 Bangladeshi workers could not manage any jobs in Malaysia, while many others were engaged in forced labour and remained underpaid or unpaid.

Andy Hall, a migrant rights activist and researcher in Malaysia, said that many foreign workers from different countries were facing the same exploitation in Malaysia, but it was acute in the case of Bangladeshi workers.

He explained that migrant workers became forced Workers and sometimes trafficking victims.

He said that workers were confined to locked shelters, their passports were confiscated, they were not given meals, and their movement was prohibited.

Andy said that many fake companies issue calling visas even though they do not need workers. When workers finally come, they send them to other companies for low-paid jobs.

Mofazzel Hossain from Meherpur said that he paid over Tk 400,000 as recruiting agency Musa International’s proprietor, Mohammad Musa Kalim, promised him to employ his son Taimur Zaman Nayan as a factory worker with a monthly pay of Tk 60,000.

‘When I talked to him last time, he wanted some money to buy food, but I did not know how to send the money,’ said Mofazzel, who filed a case against recruiter Musa and five others with the Gangni police station on February 27 seeking justice.

No one has been arrested so far in the case, according to the police.

Musa did not respond to phone calls or messages from New Age.

On February 26, Malaysia’s Home and Human Resource Ministry declared in a press statement that they had launched an investigation into the non-employment of 93 Bangladeshi workers in Cheras.

On March 8, Malaysian home minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail told The Star newspaper that foreign workers must enter the country by May 31.

He also asked valid employers to issue calling visa directly instead of through a syndicated server.

Shakirul Islam, chairman of the Ovibashi Karmi Unnayan Program, said that the aspirant migrants would bear the brunt of the sudden closure of the market, while recruiters, who already took money from aspirant migrants, would benefit.

‘Government agencies of both countries must bring the culprits to book,’ he said, adding that the Malaysian and Bangladeshi governments must ensure jobs for workers who are already there.

Officials at the expatriates’ welfare ministry said that they had already listed some recruiting agencies involved in unethical migration to Malaysia and restricted their activities.

 

Formation of counter hegemonic order

As the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the Gaza invasion become increasingly protracted and complex, there has been a significant shift in the balance of power within the interpretive framework of international order. The differences in perspectives on the world order between the West, particularly the United States, and the Global South are widening.

After prolonged military conflicts, there will inevitably be catastrophic humanitarian tragedies, including food security crises and psychological panic. However, the United States, while arming Israel and supplying it with weapons, turns a blind eye to the plight of war-torn Palestinian people, while hypocritically condemning Israel for obstructing international aid to Gaza.

The two crises that have spilled over show the essence of the West's self-exceptionalism and the destructive nature of double standards in resolving the conflicts. The brutal dichotomy of the United States has greatly diminished the attractiveness of its formula for resolving the world's hotspot issues to the Global South.

The old world order constructed by the United States is collapsing. The image and reality of the United States as a global superpower largely depend on its ability to maintain its dominance in international trade and to set international rules, as well as the demonstration of this capacity. It includes the United States' maintenance of global trade security.

The Red Sea crisis has greatly challenged the United States' existing reputation. The US-led Operation Prosperity Guardians has a limited number of participants.

The maritime freedom advocated by the United States is a false maritime freedom. The United States continuously, selectively, and militarily defends its own and allied maritime freedom to maintain its military dominance and the freedom of US military forces to enter world maritime channels at will.

The United States once proclaimed itself as the “indispensable nation” of the world, with world peace under the rule of United States, maintaining the balance of power among nuclear superpowers.

The selective intervention of the United States in international conflicts and its biased behavior in wars has led to the Pax Americana becoming a thing of the past. Classical realism is returning and new mercantilism is rising.

The world no longer has faith in hegemony, and countries must bear more self-protection responsibility. The reluctance to actively participate in US-led joint military operations largely stems from the insecurity concern of the leadership regarding domestic stability.

The existing international order is suffering from dissatisfaction. The Global South is dissatisfied with the current international order because it feels it hasn't received the benefits it deserves. Western developed countries are also dissatisfied because their share of benefits has decreased. Additionally, Europe lacks sufficient sustained economic strength, coordinated diplomacy, and defense policy to continue exerting influence abroad.

National conservatism is forming a global trend. They abhor the ceding of sovereignty, suspect elite manipulation of the free market, despise immigrants and hate pluralism. The self-styled world police is unable to bear the heavy burden of intervening in all conflicts and crises worldwide.

The United States is declining more in its ability to lead the global order than its economic power.

The multilateralism pursued by the Biden administration is a mechanism for bilateral and multilateral coordination at the expense of the US ability to coordinate globally.

Paradoxically, looking back in history, the creation of the most important multilateral institutions after World War II all had the shadow of the United States. World politics is undergoing rapid change.

The existing global order continues to fragment, with countries becoming increasingly short-sighted, focusing solely on their own short-term economic gains or security interests. Without the establishment of a new order, both the developed countries and the Global South will lose out.

The Global South is rising and a New Order is being constructed

The Biden administration has ambitiously targeted so-called authoritarians, dictators and tyrants who challenge the Western order globally.

The United States is truly targeting those who challenge the democratic model of Western values.

The Biden administration has tried to portray rivalry between US with China as a confrontation of two values, a confrontation of democracy and authoritarianism. And the abysmal performance of the United States in stopping the Ukrainian and Gaza crises has made it increasingly difficult to solidly coalesce the external will of different nations on the basis of ideological favor, even for American allies and partners.

On the battlefield of public opinion and propaganda, where the American and Western media have long dominated, there is a growing aversion in the Global South to reports, commentaries and messages that exude the moral superiority of the Western world and imbued with Western values.

With Iran, Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia becoming full members of BRICS on January 01, 2024, BRICS is becoming an organization that represents the Global South. The BRICS expansion is a movement of emerging economies fighting for self-determination of the international discourse on the global stage.

Countries of the Global South are collectively shaping a new multi polar order for a new era, unwilling either to be beholden to the Superpower or to return to a world divided into spheres of influence.

The new world multilevel order should avoid falling into the stereotypical mindset of arguing over who should fill the “power vacuum”. The concept of a power vacuum is a continuation of the hegemonic world view, a blind faith in, and blind obedience to an unchallenged leadership.

Pursuing dominance while remaining vigilant against countries of similar power may lead the powerful to overly prioritize building coercive capabilities at the expense of capacity enhancement for the well-being of the people.

The world order is changing, and US hegemony is no longer welcome. As the global economic growth slows down to prevent conflicts and wars from spilling over, major countries are more willing to take joint efforts to bring more stability and certainty.

Rather than counting on the United States to autonomously fulfill its share of international responsibility, the Global South prefers solidarity and mutual assistance among themselves. Cold-war and polarized mentalities would only exacerbate instability and uncertainty in the world.

China’s Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative and Global Civilization Initiative are Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions for accommodating harmonious coexistence and common progress of all countries.

The destiny of developing countries should be in their own hands, mutually respecting each other’s concerns, and promoting common development in a new multilevel world order upholding equity and justice.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

Aid reaches Gaza shore in first sea delivery

According to Saudi Gazette, the first maritime humanitarian aid shipment to Gaza has been unloaded on to the shore. The US charity behind the mission, World Central Kitchen, is carrying out the mission in cooperation with the United Arab Emirates.

Aid agencies have repeatedly warned that no method of relief is as effective as delivery by land, but they say Israeli restrictions mean a fraction of what is needed is getting in.

The shipment contained 200 tons of food desperately needed for Gaza, which the UN says is on the brink of famine. It marks the start of a trial to see if the sea route would be more effective than air and land deliveries.

Aid agencies have accused Israel of impeding aid deliveries, a charge vehemently denied by Israeli officials. They say Israel is allowing aid through two crossings in the south and has blamed aid agencies of logistical failures.

Saturday's shipment arrived on board Spanish charity ship Open Arms.

Its cargo includes beans, carrots, canned tuna, chickpeas, canned corn, parboiled rice, flour, oil, salt and pallets of dates, which hold spiritual significance during Ramadan.

In a statement, World Central Kitchen (WCK) said, "All cargo was offloaded and is being readied for distribution in Gaza." Teams worked through the night to get the aid on to dry land.

Gaza has no functioning port, so a jetty stemming from the shoreline was built by WCK's team.
However, there are few details on how the aid distribution will work, with UN relief agencies having described huge obstacles to getting relief supplies to those in need.

Earlier, WCK's founder, celebrity chef José Andrés, wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that all the food aid from the barge had been loaded into 12 lorries.

"We did it!" he wrote, adding that this was a test to see if they could bring even more aid in the next shipment — up to "thousands of tons a week".

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said troops had been deployed to secure the shoreline.

This delivery has been highly anticipated since the ship set off from the port of Larnaca on Tuesday.

If this sea mission is deemed a success, other aid ships will likely follow as part of an international effort to get more aid into Gaza. The ships would use a newly opened sea route to travel directly to the region.

The US is planning to build its own floating dock off the coast to boost sea deliveries. The White House says it could see two million meals a day enter Gaza, but while a military ship is en route with equipment on board to build the dock, questions remain about the logistics of the plan.

The World Food Program had to temporarily pause its land deliveries after convoys came under gunfire and looting. And an air drop turned deadly last week when five people were reportedly killed when a parachute failed and they were hit by the aid package.

The UN has warned that famine is "almost inevitable" in Gaza without urgent action, and the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has accused Israel of creating a "manmade" disaster and using starvation as a weapon of war.