Supply Lines: Red Sea Update

According to the Bloomberg, Red Sea shipping diversions may last a few more months, and some people think they could go on even longer.

That’s among the takeaways from the CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, the world’s No. 5 container line, in an interview Thursday on Bloomberg TV. Rolf Habben Jansen was speaking as the Hamburg, Germany-based company announced 2023 earnings that showed a steep drop in revenue and profits from a year earlier.

Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have disrupted supply chains since mid-December 2023, forcing carriers to change routes and redo schedules — adjustments that have helped absorb excess capacity.

As a result, they’re burning more fuel and taking longer to deliver, with some needing to purchase more containers given the extended routes. The added costs are getting past along to customers.

The longer routes around southern Africa initially boosted spot container rates but those are coming down, Jansen said. “The services are stabilizing, which also means that the market is getting calmer.”

He indicated, though, that there’s no telling when the Red Sea will be safe enough to transit again.

“We hope that we’re going to be able to go back through in a couple of months,” Jansen said. “But I know there are also people that think that it will last quite a while longer.”

In the medium term, excess capacity may return to weigh on freight rates. Hapag-Lloyd expects the market to remain difficult for carriers given the large number of ship deliveries this year, Jansen said in the company’s 2023 annual report.

Sharing that view was Zim Integrated Shipping CEO Eli Glickman, who spoke on a conference call on Wednesday. “Once the Red Sea crisis is resolved, we will likely revert to the supply-demand scenario that began to play out in ‘23, setting up a more challenging third and fourth quarter of 2024 for the industry, including us,” he said.

It’s not just the shipping companies facing a tough environment. World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told Bloomberg in an interview that “the risks are all on the downside.”

But corporate supply chains have gotten more resilient and flexible. Here’s a rundown of comments that a few big shippers and a major port operator have offered this week:

Samsonite CFO Reza Taleghani: “So if you think about things you read about in the news, shipping delays, Red Sea, et cetera, we are just fine. We have inventory exactly where we need it to be. All of our facilities, even if there is a week or two delays, not that big of a deal.”

Adidas CEO Bjorn Gulden: “We have a little bit of headwind in freight in the first half because of the Red Sea situation, and as you know, if the freight companies have a chance to do something they increase prices. That should normalize and then the rest of everything that has to do with margin is going in the right direction.”

Williams-Sonoma CEO Laura Alber: “When a problem comes along, they’re real. The Red Sea disruption is pretty terrible. However, it is not costing us any more money. So far it is costing us about 10 days of delivery, give or take. And as I mentioned last time, we padded the deliveries to our customers once we heard about it, so we didn't disappoint them.”

DP World Group Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem: “Despite the uncertain start to 2024 with the ongoing Red Sea crisis, our portfolio has continued to demonstrate resilience. The outlook remains uncertain due to the challenging geopolitical and economic environment.”

 

Iranian oil output exceeds 3 million bpd

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in a report put Iran’s oil output at 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for February 2024.

According to the report OPEC’s total output during the month under review was up 170,000 bpd to 26.47 million bpd.

OPEC’s latest monthly report, however, has put Iran’s crude oil production at 3.148 in February, noting that the Islamic Republic maintained its place as OPEC’s third-biggest oil producer in the month.

According to the mentioned report, the price of Iran’s heavy crude increased by 20 cents in February to reach US$80.34 per barrel.

The director of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) Explorations Department has said the country’s oil explorations registered a 300 percent growth in two years of the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi, who assumed office in August 2021.

Mehdi Fakour said the oil explorations have shown a considerable increase in various sectors as compared to the past five years, Mehr News Agency reported.

He added that the oil explorations made in the first two years of the current administration have registered a 300 percent hike.

The feasibility studies of some explorations have started in the country, he said, adding that negotiations have been made with a number of industrial production companies.

Currently, the oil exploration activities in the country are at a satisfactory level, Fakour added.

Earlier, the Head of the National Iranian Oil Company Mohsen Khojasteh Mehr said that the company has a 100-year vision for exploration, emphasizing that the company is determined to carry out maximum exploration operations to discover and maintain the country’s reserves.

Back in February, the International Monetary Fund in a report on Iran’s microeconomic indicators said the increase in Iran’s oil production in 2023 exceeded expectations.

The fund attributed the increase in its estimate of Iran's economic growth in the mentioned year to the higher-than-expected increase in the country’s oil production.

According to the new estimates of this international entity, Iran's economic growth in 2023 reached 5.4 percent, registering a significant increase compared to the previous year.

The International Monetary Fund had previously estimated that Iran's economic growth would reach only 3.0 percent in 2023.

Iran's crude oil exports grew by roughly 50 percent in 2023 to a five-year high of about 1.29 million bpd, with the vast majority going to China, according to Nikkei Asia.

The report, citing the International Energy Agency (IEA), put Iran’s oil production at 2.99 million bpd last year, 440,000 barrels more than in 2022.

As reported, IEA predicts a further rise of 160,000 barrels of Iran’s oil exports in 2024.

This increase is expected to contribute to a less tight market, alongside increases by the US and Brazil. The IEA sees global supply rising by 1.5 million bpd to an all-time high this year.

 

Pakistan: Saga of Financial Challenges

Once hailed as a financial wizard, Ishaq Dar's return to Pakistan was accompanied by grandiosity, with a Red Carpet reception. However, the same individuals who celebrated Dar's financial prowess are now touting Muhammad Aurangzeb as a savior capable of instantly resolving Pakistan's myriad issues. While Aurangzeb may possess exceptional banking skills, his comprehension of Pakistan's complex economic landscape raises doubts.

Adding to the skepticism is his hefty monthly salary of US$100,000, amounting to a staggering US$1.2 million annually. Despite decades under the IMF microscope, Pakistan struggles to generate sufficient dollars to finance its imports, with around US$150 billion from overseas Pakistanis disappearing into a financial abyss over the last five years.

The finance minister's primary task now is to persuade the lender of last resort to release more dollars, settling outstanding loans and facilitating imports, particularly for the elite. The proposed solutions involve increasing electricity and gas tariffs, raising interest rates, and imposing additional duties and taxes, collectively squeezing every Pakistani financially.

Financial wizards argue that these measures will bridge the budget deficit, but they overlook the resultant surge in government borrowing and the negative impact on local manufacturers' competitiveness. This situation brings to mind the saying, "An expert is a person who makes things complicated." Pakistanis are inundated with advice on improving taxes, but there's a glaring absence of plans to tax those enjoying exemptions since independence, and austerity measures are conspicuously lacking.

As Pakistan rushes into talks with the IMF, concerns persist about addressing GDP growth, boosting exports, and curbing extravagance. The impending debt servicing crisis looms large, and while the IMF may greenlight a larger and extended standby program, the real question lies in whether policymakers have viable strategies to maintain debt servicing at a sustainable level.

Iran-China-Russia naval drill in Indian Ocean

The navies of Iran, China, and Russia have initiated joint drills in the northern tip of the Indian Ocean, marking their fifth collaborative military exercise in recent years. Naval delegations from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Oman, Pakistan, and South Africa are present as the observers of the exercises.

Chinese and Russian naval forces have entered Iranian territorial waters to participate in the primary stage of the naval war game, named Maritime Security Belt 2024, near the Gulf of Oman. This international exercise, involving Iran, China, and Russia, underscores a commitment to peace and security in the region.

During a joint press conference with Russian and Chinese commanders, Second Flotilla Admiral Mustafa Taj al-Dini emphasized the strategic significance of this being the fifth joint exercise among the involved countries. He highlighted the objectives of this joint naval drill, including bolstering maritime trade security, combating piracy and terrorism, and fostering cooperation among the participating nations.

According to Taj al-Dini, this security-focused exercise, covering an expansive area of 17,000 square kilometers, aims to address multifaceted challenges. Despite the approaching festivities for the Persian New Year, the spokesperson underscored that security efforts remain steadfast.

Notably, naval units from Iran, China, and Russia, comprising destroyers and missile cruisers, actively contribute to this collaborative initiative.

Iranian naval forces, along with their Chinese and Russian counterparts, have conducted several military drills in recent years to enhance the security and stability of international maritime trade. They have also collaborated in countering piracy and maritime terrorism, exchanging information in naval rescue and relief operations, as well as sharing operational and tactical experiences.

Russia's defense ministry stated that the exercises, running through Friday and involving warships and aviation, would focus on the protection of maritime economic activity.

The Russian defence ministry said its Pacific fleet, led by the Varyag guided missile cruiser and the Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate, had arrived at Iran’s Chabahar port on Monday to take part in the joint drill.

China’s defense ministry mentioned that the drills aimed at jointly maintaining regional maritime security. China sent its 45th escort task force, consisting of the guided-missile destroyer Urumqi, guided-missile frigate Linyi, and the comprehensive supply ship Dongpinghu, to the exercise.

Last month, Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of the Iranian Navy, announced Tehran's plan to hold joint drills with Beijing and Moscow before the end of March, aimed at ensuring regional security.

Providing insights into the strategic maritime efforts, the rear admiral revealed that the mission to safeguard Iran's shipping lines in international waters commenced in 2009 under the direct command of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

Emphasizing the unwavering commitment of the Army's strategic naval force, he highlighted their continuous role in ensuring the security of the nation's economic hub in both the Gulf of Aden and the northern Indian Ocean.

The admiral further highlighted the expansion of the security mission beyond securing shipping lines in the Red Sea over the past four years. Currently, the comprehensive management of protection for Iran's shipping lines extends from the Gulf of Aden to the Suez Canal.

The Iranian Navy conducts routine exercises throughout the year. In recent years, Iranian military experts and technicians have made significant progress in developing and manufacturing a diverse range of military equipment, achieving self-sufficiency for the armed forces in the military industry.

In March 2023, Iranian, Chinese, and Russian naval forces staged the 2023 Marine Security Belt war game in the northern parts of the Indian Ocean, marking the fourth joint exercise in recent years. Alongside Chinese and Russian fleets, more than 10 Iranian Navy vessels and three helicopters reportedly took part.

 Courtesy Tehran Times

Iran grain production exceeds 21 million tons

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in a report said Iran has produced more than 21 million tons of grain in the 2023 Crop Year and holds the fourth largest grain reserves in Asia.

In its latest report on the “Outlook of Food Products and Situation”, FAO put the total volume of grain produced in Iran in 2023 at 21.1 million tons, showing a more than two percent hike compared to a year earlier.

According to this report, Iran produced over 13 million tons of wheat in 2022 and 13.5 million tons in 2023.

Rice production also reached 3.5 million tons in the current year, without any changes compared to the previous crop year.

FAO has put Iran's total cereal stocks at 12.1 million tons in the current year, registering a 100,000-ton increase compared to the previous year.

With this volume of stocks, Iran has ranked fourth in the world. China has been ranked number one with 399 million tons of cereal stocks. India with 64 million tons and Turkey with 12.7 million tons have taken the second and third places respectively.

Back in May 2023, FAO released a report in which Iran was ranked 43rd in the world in terms of food imports despite being the 17th most populous country in the world.

The UN entity’s statistics show that industrialized countries were the largest importers of food products in the world.

According to the organization, Iran currently stands among the world’s top producers of agricultural products.

 

A pier for Gaza can change almost nothing

A few observations on US President Joe Biden building a “temporary pier” – or what his officials are grandly calling a “port” – to get aid into Gaza:

1. Though no one is mentioning it, Biden is actually violating Israel’s 17-year blockade of Gaza with his plan. Gaza doesn’t have a sea port, or an airport, because Israel, its occupier, has long banned it from having either.

Israel barred anything getting into Gaza that didn’t come through the land crossings it controls. Israel stopped international aid flotillas, often violently, from reaching Gaza to bring in medicine. The blockade also created a captive market for Israel’s own poor-quality goods, like damaged fruit and vegetales, and allowed Israel to skim off money at the land crossings that should have gone to the Palestinians in fees and duties.

2. It will take many weeks for the US to build this pier off-shore and get it up and running. Why the delay? Every western capital, including the United States, has supported the blockade for the past 17 years.

The siege of Gaza caused gradual malnutrition among the enclave’s children, rather the current rapid starvation. By helping Israel inflict collective punishment on Gaza for all those years, the US and Europe was complicit in a gross and enduring violation of international law, even before the current genocide.

With his pier, Biden isn’t reversing that long-standing collusion in a crime against humanity. He has stressed it will be temporary. In other words, it will be back to business in Gaza as usual afterwards: any children who survive will once again be allowed to starve in slow-motion, at a rate that doesn’t register with the establishment media and put pressure on Washington to be seen to be doing something.

3. Biden could get aid into Gaza much faster than by building a pier, if he wanted to. He could simply insist that Israel let aid trucks through the land crossings, and threaten it with serious repercussions should it fail to comply. He could threaten to withhold the US bombs he is sending to kill more children in Gaza. Or he could threaten to cut off the billions in military aid Washington sends to Israel every year. Or he could threaten to refuse to cast a US veto to protect Israel from diplomatic fallout at the United Nations. He could do any of that and more, but he chooses not to.

4. Even after Biden buys Israel a few more weeks to further aggressively starve Palestinians in Gaza, while we wait for his temporary pier to be completed, nothing may actually change in practice. Israel will still get to carry out the same checks it currently does at the land crossings but instead in Lanarca, Cyprus, where the aid will be loaded on to ships. In other words, Israel will still be able to create the same interminable hold-ups using “security concerns” as the pretext.

5. Biden isn’t changing course – temporarily – because he suddenly cares about the people, or even the children, of Gaza. They have been suffering in their open-air prison, to varying degrees, for decades. If he had cared, he would have done something to end that suffering after he became president. If he had done something then, October 7 might never have happened, and all those lives lost on both sides – lives continuing to be lost on the Palestinian side every few minutes – might have been saved.

And if he really cared, he wouldn’t have helped Israel in its efforts to destroy UNRWA, the UN relief agency for Palestinians and a vital lifeline for Gaza, by freezing its funding, based on unevidenced claims against the agency by Israel.

No, Biden doesn’t care about Palestinian suffering or about the fact that, while he’s been busy eating ice cream, many, many tens of thousands of children have been murdered, maimed or orphaned – and the rest starved. He cares about the polls. His timetable for helping Palestinians is being strictly dictated by the schedule of the presidential election. He needs to look like Gaza’s saviour when Democrats are deciding who they are voting for.

He and the Democratic Party are betting voters are dumb enough to fall for this charade. Please don’t prove them right.

 

Pakistan: Kitchen Cabinet of PM Shehbaz Sharif

President Asif Ali Zardari on Monday administered the oath to the 19-member federal cabinet of newly elected Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

The PML-N’s main ally, the PPP, has refused to become part of the federal cabinet.

The cabinet includes 12 MNAs and three senators as federal ministers, as well as a minister of state. Three technocrats — Muhammad Aurangzeb, Mohsin Naqvi and Ahad Cheema are also included in the cabinet.

A press release from the information ministry elaborated on the various portfolios assigned to the federal ministers.

Federal ministers

·         Khawaja Muhammad Asif, MNA — defence, defence production, aviation

·         Mohammad Ishaq Dar, Senator — foreign affairs

·         Ahsan Iqbal Chaudry, MNA — planning, development and special initiatives

·         Rana Tanveer Hussain, MNA — industries and production

·         Azam Nazeer Tarar, Senator — law and justice, human rights

·         Chaudhry Salik Hussain, MNA — overseas Pakistanis and human resource development

·         Abdul Aleem Khan, MNA — privatisation, Board of Investment

·         Jam Kamal Khan, MNA — commerce

·         Amir Muqam, MNA — states and frontier regions, national heritage and culture

·         Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari, MNA — railways

·         Attaullah Tarar, MNA — information and broadcasting

·         Dr Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, MNA — science and technology, federal education and professional training

·         Qaiser Ahmed Sheikh, MNA — maritime affairs

·         Mian Riaz Hussain Pirzada, MNA — housing and works

·         Musadik Masood Malik, Senator — petroleum, power

·         Muhammad Aurangzeb — finance, revenue

·         Ahad Khan Cheema — economic affairs, establishment

·         Mohsin Naqvi — interior, narcotics control

Minister of state

·         Shaza Fatima Khawaja

Familiar faces returning include Khawaja Asif, Dar, Ahsan Iqbal, Azam Nazeer Tarar and Musadik Malik.