Credibility of US intelligence about Iran blasts questionable

According to Reuters, communications intercepts collected by the United States confirm that Islamic State (ISIS) Afghanistan-based branch carried out twin bombings in Iran that killed nearly 100 people. The US intelligence boasted, "The intelligence is clear-cut and indisputable." However, there are reasons to doubt the credibility of these claims.

First, the source said the intelligence comprised communications intercepts, without providing further details. The collection of the intercepts has not been previously reported.

Second, ISIS claimed responsibility for the bombings, saying two operatives wearing explosive suicide belts staged the attack during a memorial service for Qassem Soleimani, a senior military commander assassinated in Iraq in a 2020 US drone strike. This is again a dubious statement because now IEDs (improvised explosive devices) are used.

Third, ISIS is suspected to be the ‘B’ team of CIA and it has once again said, “The group harbors a virulent hatred for Shi'ites.” This mantra is totally misleading because now Afghanistan and Iran enjoy very cordial relationship. Iran is helping Afghanistan in building its economy, whereas US is adamant at destroying economy of Afghanistan.

Fourth, Iran on Friday said security forces had arrested 11 people suspected of involvement in Wednesday's attack and had seized explosive devices and vests.

Fifth, CIA has once again used old mantra that the crackdown by While Taliban has weakened ISIS-K and prompted some members to leave Afghanistan for neighboring countries – trying to implicate Pakistan.

Sixth, the US has been making desperate efforts to drag Iran in Israel-Hamas conflict, but all in vain. The purpose is to initiate proxy war against Iran, to continue Gaza cleansing at a faster pace.

The US hegemony is the Middle East is on the decline and the genocide in Gaza by Israel has further accelerated the pace of isolation of these two countries. Their old mantras are almost dead.

 

Hezbollah targets northern Israel

Heavy fire from Lebanon targeted northern Israel on Saturday, the Israeli military said, adding it had responded by striking a terrorist cell that took part in the attack, as top US and European diplomats sought to stop spillover from the Gaza war, reports Reuters.

Shortly after rocket sirens sounded across northern Israel, the military said that approximately 40 launches from Lebanon toward the area of Meron in northern Israel were identified.

There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

Powerful Lebanese armed group Hezbollah said it hit a key Israeli observation post early on Saturday with 62 rockets as a preliminary response to the killing of Hamas' deputy chief earlier this week.

Tensions have been high since Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed by a drone on Tuesday in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the stronghold of Hamas' Iranian-backed Lebanese ally Hezbollah, in an attack widely attributed to sworn foe Israel.

The head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said on Friday Lebanon would be exposed to more Israeli operations if his group did not respond to the killing.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the European Union's senior diplomat Josep Borrell began a new diplomatic push on Friday to stop the spillover from the three-month-old Gaza war into Lebanon, the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and Red Sea shipping lanes.

Israel and Hezbollah often trade fire across the border, the West Bank is boiling with emotion and the Iran-aligned Houthis seem determined to continue attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes until Israel halts its bombardment of Gaza.

The offensive, aimed at wiping out the Islamist movement that rules Gaza, has killed 22,600 people, according to Palestinian health officials, and devastated the densely populated enclave of 2.3 million people.

There has been no let up in the conflict despite several trips to the region by Blinken and other senior diplomats.

The official Palestinian WAFA news agency reported on Saturday that 18 Palestinians were killed by an Israeli attack on a house east of Khan Younis in Gaza.

Israel, which says it has killed 8,000 militants since the October 07, 2023 Hamas attack, has announced a more targeted approach as it faces global pressure to limit huge civilian casualties.

Israel has listed 175 soldiers as killed in action since its offensive began.

Blinken is due to visit the West Bank during his week-long tour starting on Friday in Turkey, which has offered to mediate. He will also hold talks in Israel, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Who is behind twin bomb blasts in Iran?

Two bombs exploded and killed at least 84 people at a commemoration for a prominent Iranian general slain by the United States in a 2020 drone strike.

No one immediately claimed responsibility for what appeared to be the deadliest militant attack to target Iran since its 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The explosions struck minutes apart on Wednesday, shaking the city of Kerman, about 820 kilometers southeast of the capital, Tehran. The second blast sprayed shrapnel into a screaming crowd fleeing the first explosion.

The gathering marked the fourth anniversary of the killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds Force, in a U.S. drone strike in Iraq.

Iranian state television and officials described the attacks as bombings, without immediately giving clear details of what happened. The attacks came a day after a deputy head of the Palestinian militant group Hamas was killed in a suspected Israeli strike in Beirut.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the attackers will face a harsh response, though he didn’t name any possible suspect. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi added “Undoubtedly, the perpetrators and leaders of this cowardly act will soon be identified and punished.”

Iran has multiple foes that could be behind the assault, including exile groups, militant organizations and state actors.

While Israel has carried out attacks in Iran over its nuclear program, it has conducted targeted assassinations, not mass casualty bombings.

A US State Department spokesman, Matthew Miller, said American officials had no reason to believe Israel was involved in Wednesday’s attack in Iran. That was echoed by National Security Council spokesman John Kirby at the White House, who said our hearts go out to all the innocent victims and their family members.

Iran also has seen mass protests in recent years, including those over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in 2022. The country also has been targeted by exile groups in attacks dating back to the turmoil surrounding its 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Israel is suspected of launching the attack Tuesday that killed a deputy head of Hamas in Beirut, but that attack caused limited casualties in a densely populated neighborhood of the Lebanese capital. Last week, a suspected Israeli strike killed a Revolutionary Guard commander in Syria.

The government of neighboring Iraq expressed condolences to the victims, and the European Union issued a statement offering its solidarity with the Iranian people.

Saudi Arabia, a longtime regional rival which reached a détente with Iran last year, offered its sympathies.

Can killing of Hamas leader in Beirut spread Gaza war?

A logical question being asked after the killing of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut is, can it spread Gaza war beyond the Palestinian enclave?

It is anticipated that Hamas and its allies will react furiously. However, some critics say Hamas, Hezbollah and even all the Muslim countries are incapable of responding in any significant manner.

To begin with, since October 07, 2023 over 20,000 people have been killed in Gaza and Muslims have failed miserably in soliciting ceasefire.

A point to ponder is that Israel has killed Arouri in a drone strike in Lebanon's capital Beirut, the stronghold of Hezbollah.

As usual Lebanese and Palestinian security sources say this could spread Gaza war well beyond the Palestinian enclave, which look highly improbable.

Israel neither confirmed nor denied carrying out the killing, but its military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said Israeli forces were in a high state of readiness and prepared for any scenario.

Hundreds of Palestinians took to the streets of Ramallah and other towns in the West Bank to condemn Arouri's killing, chanting, "Revenge, revenge, Qassam!"

Earlier, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had warned Israel against carrying out any assassinations on Lebanese soil, vowing a severe reaction.

Arouri, 57, a senior Hamas political leader was killed soon after meeting Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

Nasser Kanaani, spokesperson for the foreign ministry of Iran, a major supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah, said Arouri's killing would "undoubtedly ignite another surge in the veins of resistance and the motivation to fight against the Zionist occupiers, not only in Palestine but also in the region and among all freedom-seekers worldwide."

Iran stations warship in Red Sea as US aircraft carrier leaves

Iran's Alborz warship has passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and entered the Red Sea, the country's semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Monday. Iranian warships have been operating in the region to secure shipping lanes since 2009, Tasnim said.

Iranian-backed groups have not reduced their attacks in the Middle East. On the opposite, pro-Iranian media sought to highlight how the attacks are increasing. Al-Mayadeen media, which is pro-Iran, claimed that there were attacks targeting Al-Asad based in Iraq and Shaddadi in Syria, two places where US forces are located. The US is in Syria and Iraq to help defeat ISIS.

Reports on December 31, 2023 said that the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier is heading out of the Mediterranean is also raising eyebrows in Iran and the region. While Gaza fighting appears to be reduced slightly, Iran continues to want to manage the conflict against Israel. Iranian Tasnim ran a long interview about the role of Qasem Soleimani in the region. Although the interview is ostensibly about Soleimani, who was killed in January 2020 by the US, the report examines recent details about the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen targeting ships and Palestinian terror groups targeting Israel.

The article raises questions about presence of US aircraft carriers in the region. There were two carriers in the region, the Eisenhower and Ford.

The US had sent the second carrier after the October 07, 2023 attack to deter Hezbollah and others from escalating attacks.

The Iranian regime's view is that these naval assets have not been able to prevent the Houthis in Yemen from continuing attacks on ships. However, a US helicopter destroyed three small Houthi boats over the weekend, indicating that the Houthis are taking losses.

The story about the US carrier leaving the region was covered in Al-Mayadeen media, which is pro-Iran, showing that pro-Iran figures in the region are watching this development closely.

Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia join BRICS

South Africa’s representative in the BRICS group of emerging economies, Anil Sooklal, has stated that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia join the bloc on January 01, 2024.

At the recent BRICS meeting, which took place in Durban, South Africa, early in December, Sooklal underlined —referring to the attendance of high-ranking representatives of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia— that the number of BRICS members will double with the addition of these nations.

He went on to add that the next conference of the economic group is scheduled for January 30, 2024 in Moscow, and it is expected that representatives of the new BRICS members will be there.

In a recent interview with Sputnik, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Ali Bagheri Kani, emphasized Iran's commitment, alongside other BRICS members, to actively pursue de-dollarization across various economic sectors.

Bagheri Kani highlighted the focus on trade, economic collaborations, and financial exchanges within this influential coalition of major economies. 

He emphasized ongoing initiatives and expressed optimism about reinforcing these efforts to swiftly achieve their objectives.

Bagheri Kani underscored the importance of collaborative efforts, signaling a unified commitment within BRICS to reducing dependency on the dollar.

He clarified that the initiatives aim to establish a framework fostering economic autonomy and resilience among member nations.

The BRICS group, initially comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, established in 2009, has emerged as a significant force shaping global economic discussions. 

Iran, alongside Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, has received an invitation to join this influential bloc. Their anticipated full membership, official from January 01, 2024, marks a substantial shift in the geopolitical landscape.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov, provided insights into BRICS countries accelerating the transition to national currencies. 

This strategic shift aligns with the shared vision of establishing a more balanced and resilient global economic framework, reducing vulnerabilities associated with a singular currency.

BRICS has announced plans to introduce a gold-backed currency for settling international trade payments, challenging the global reserve status of the US dollar. This decision adds momentum to the ongoing de-dollarization trend unfolding in the global economy.

Iran's active involvement in the BRICS initiative toward de-dollarization aligns with a broader trend among influential nations reshaping the global economic landscape.

As BRICS evolves, its concerted efforts toward economic autonomy become increasingly significant in shaping the future of international trade and finance.

Netanyahu popularity falling sharply

According to a Reuters report, only 15% of Israelis want Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stay in office after the war on Hamas in Gaza ends, though many more still support his strategy of crushing the militants in the Palestinian enclave.

Netanyahu promised to crush Hamas after its October 07, 2023 rampage in southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and 240 abducted. Israeli forces have laid much of Gaza to waste in their nearly three-month retaliatory offensive.

Netanyahu has said such intense military pressure is also vital to ensure that the remaining 129 hostages still held in Gaza are returned after around 100 were freed in late November in a swap deal also involving hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

In the poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), 56% of those questioned said continuing the military offensive was the best way to recover the hostages.

24% thought a swap deal including the release of thousands more Palestinian prisoners from Israel's jails would be best.

More than 22,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war, according to Gaza health officials, and most of the population displaced. Israel says it has killed some 8,000 Palestinian fighters and has vowed to hunt down Hamas leaders.

But a mere 15% want Netanyahu to be prime minister once the war is over, the poll showed. His political rival and present war cabinet partner, centrist Benny Gantz, garnered support from 23% of interviewees. Around 30% named no preferred leader.

The poll was conducted among 746 respondents between December 25-28, with a 95% confidence level, the IDI said. A previous IDI poll in December found that 69% of Israelis thought that elections should be held as soon as the war ends.

Netanyahu said on Saturday it would be months before victory is achieved. Successive surveys have found his popularity has fallen sharply since the surprise October attack by Hamas that led to the deadliest day in Israel's 75 years.