Yemen one of the key resistance in Gaza war

When Israel began its deadly attacks on Gaza, few thought that Yemen would become one of the key players in this war. The intervention of Ansar Allah of Yemen in the recent war is subject to several considerations and analyses.

One dimension of this intervention is economic. In fact, Ansar Allah has opened the third economic front against Israel.

The first front is related to Gaza. Tel Aviv has called up 360,000 reserve forces in attacking Gaza, and tens of thousands have also left southern Israel.

On the second front, Hezbollah's movements in northern Israel have also paralyzed the economy of this region.

The economic costs on these two fronts have been high for the regime. Official sources in Israel have admitted that the country's economy has shrunk by 15% in the last three months of the year.

The tourism industry has almost stopped, and retail has also declined significantly. The unemployment rate has reached about 10%, while in the month before October, this rate was less than 4%.

Ansar Allah started their economic war against the regime in the foreign trade field by opening the third front.

They began their work less than a month ago by seizing the Galaxy Leader. They recently announced that only Israeli ships will not be targeted, insisting all commercial ships that travel from Israeli ports to another country or vice versa will be seized or attacked.

In recent days, they have attacked several container ships in the Red Sea. The attacks have led to the closure of Eilat port, and commercial ships are forced to circumnavigate the whole of Africa to reach Israeli ports without any hassle, resulting in increased travel time and therefore higher transportation costs.

These attacks have not only increased insurance cost for the ships heading to Israel, but also burdened the already under-pressure Israeli economy.

The Red Sea corridor is vital for Israel's economy, and the continuation of the current situation will become increasingly difficult and expensive for it.

"National Security Council" has issued urgent instructions to Israel’s ports to remove information related to the arrival and departure of ships from their websites.

Another solution proposed by some Zionist experts is to transport goods to Port Said in Egypt and unload them there, then transfer them to smaller ships and transport them to Israeli ports. However, this solution is not practically feasible. In fact, they know that they have no practical and military options against Ansar Allah.

However, the most important hope for Israel is to try to turn their problem into everyone's problem. They are doing their best to pretend that Yemen's actions endanger international trade security in the Red Sea and thus force others to solve their problem.

Although the Americans are involved in this project with Israel, as the revolutionary authorities of Yemen have stated, no one can prevent them from supporting the oppressed people of Palestine.

They have clearly announced the solution: stop the massacre in Gaza and deliver food, medicine, and vital goods to the besieged people. 

Ansar Allah's confrontation with Israel is not limited to economic warfare, and despite the great distance from the occupied territories, they have conducted missile and drone attacks on Israel.

The courageous actions of the Yemenis have embarrassed some Islamic countries that have many pressure tools to stop Israel's killing machine but do not use them. 

All of this is happening while the Yemenis themselves have been facing war and severe siege for more than 8 years ‑ despite all these pressures, they are stronger than ever in regional equations.

Without a doubt, making the Red Sea insecure for the economy of the Israeli regime is not the Yemenis' last card in this game. Bigger surprises may be on the way that the Yemenis will reveal in due time.

Courtesy: The Tehran Times

 

Pakistan: Understanding General Asim Munir Doctrine

Functioning as a security state, Pakistan has long formulated its foreign policy choices based on security needs and the aspiration to establish itself as a hard military power. This approach has allowed the military to play a leading role in shaping both, domestic and foreign policy decisions, often overshadowing civilian institutions. However, with changing global dynamics, the current civil-military establishment is actively signaling a shift in Pakistan’s strategic culture and foreign policy interests.

It has been just over a year since General Asim Munir took command of Pakistan's military; succeeding General (retired) Qamar Javed Bajwa in late November 2022. Apart from stepping into the most powerful role in Pakistan, Munir also inherited the legacy of Bajwa’s military doctrine, which not only shaped Pakistan's foreign policy but also presented considerable challenges for him to address.

Throughout his tenure, Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan's traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. This shift involved broadening the scope of Pakistan’s national security, moving beyond a primary emphasis on military defense, and recognizing economic security as a crucial factor for achieving improved traditional security outcomes.

To safeguard economic security, Bajwa aimed to enhance Pakistan's geostrategic importance by prioritizing regional connectivity and global development partnerships. He sought to position Pakistan as a key hub for trade, transit, and production in West, Central, and South Asia, intending to transition from aid-based dependencies to trade and investment partnerships.

Bajwa fell short of fully realizing his vision during his six years in office, with Pakistan continuing to rely heavily on International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans to support its declining economy. Munir now faces the challenging task of turning Bajwa’s unrealized vision into a reality. This requires cultivating positive interdependence and multi-alignment with a diverse range of partners, while also ensuring domestic stability.

An examination of Munir’s first year in office is crucial to assess his progress thus far and gain insight into the military’s current foreign policy vision.

Munir doctrine

A crucial aspect of Munir’s doctrine involves guiding Pakistan away from the strategic dilemma of choosing between the United States and China, and avoiding the significant costs it has incurred for Islamabad’s foreign policy.

Munir has made clear a preference for pursuing a hedging strategy, aiming to avoid getting entangled in global binary politics. His strategic approach is centered on maximizing Pakistan's economic gains to avoid subservience to major powers and increase its room for maneuver. He articulated this vision for defending Pakistan's sovereignty by building a robust economy, emphasizing that, “all Pakistanis must throw out the beggar’s bowl.”

At least three interrelated points characterize Munir's foreign policy vision, each representing significant challenges he must confront. These observations are drawn from his statements and actions up to this point.

First, he has expressed a commitment to project and advance a softer image of Pakistan.

Second, he has demonstrated a keen interest in elevating Pakistan as a regional middle power.

Third, he has placed a significant focus on prioritizing geo-economics over geopolitics.

Revamping Pakistan’s image

A state's image and reputation are pivotal in achieving foreign policy goals. Pakistan's global reputation is currently plagued by a host of domestic issues, all of which paint a picture of the country as a struggling democracy grappling with internal turmoil. Recent regime changes, the constitutional crisis over the next general elections, growing insecurity and the rise in terrorist attacks, escalating debt, human rights violations, political instability, socioeconomic disparities, growing inflation, and energy crises have all taken a toll on Pakistan's standing in the international community.

The country is increasingly perceived as an elitist state that struggles to address the genuine concerns of its citizens, moving closer to a praetorian state. This negative image is partly due to the hybrid governance model adopted prior to Munir's appointment, disrupting the balance of power between civilian and military authorities.

Under this system, the military has gained legal authority to govern key state institutions, but this has eroded its public image, a problem that has been exacerbated by allegations from popular leader Imran Khan of undermining democracy.

At present, there are lingering suspicions that the next general elections, currently scheduled for February 08, 2024, may not take place until Khan is absent from the political landscape. Despite being imprisoned and facing a ban from politics, Khan maintains significant popularity compared to his political rivals. As long as his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party remains a legitimate political entity, it poses a potential risk of securing a majority in parliament, a scenario the military establishment is unwilling to tolerate.

For their part, Western nations, including the United States and European Union, have issued warnings about potential consequences if the elections are delayed further or conducted unfairly. Adding to Pakistan's challenges, a group of US members of Congress recently urged the Biden administration to withhold military aid due to concerns over human rights abuses.

Dismissing such negative perceptions, Munir has pledged his commitment to upholding democracy in Pakistan. This underscores a major aspect of the Munir doctrine, which aims to restore the military's soft image both at home and abroad while retaining its influence in the country's governance.

Affirming Munir’s position, Interim Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar has asserted that the military's involvement in state governance is solely due to its organizational capabilities and has dismissed concerns that it might seek to manipulate the upcoming elections.

Pakistan a regional security actor

Historically, Pakistan has leveraged its advanced military capabilities as a crucial asset in its foreign relations, a reason why its defense cooperation takes precedence over economic ties with other countries. This security-centric foreign policy strategy has played a pivotal role in sustaining the functionality and institutional capacity of the military, even during the most testing periods. However, despite entering significant security and defense agreements, Pakistan has been unable to achieve much-needed stability and security.

A primary factor contributing to this challenge is the hostile internal and regional security environment in which Pakistan is situated. Munir's foreign policy vision reflects this strategic thinking, as evidenced by his statements and efforts in defense diplomacy.

He has expressed his desire to defend Pakistan against internal and cross-border terrorism while simultaneously transforming the country into a stabilizing regional security actor.

In terms of foreign policy initiatives, Munir has carved out a distinctive path, particularly in relation to India and Afghanistan. Taking a stern stance toward India, Munir has issued warnings of a swift proportional response in the event of an attack. He has also accused India of waging a proxy war against Pakistan through terrorist organizations.

Deviating from the traditional friendly ties between Pakistan's military and the Afghan Taliban, Munir has chosen to pursue a more adversarial policy toward the Kabul regime.

Accusing the Afghan government of sheltering anti-Pakistan terrorists, he has threatened a robust military response if Pakistan’s security demands are not met.

The ongoing deportation of 1.7 million Afghans residing in Pakistan is evidence of Munir’s stringent policy against the Afghan Taliban. In defense of the massive deportations, Munir has contended that the expulsion of Afghans, whom he alleges to be involved in most terrorist activities in Pakistan, would enhance the country’s internal security.

Strategic neutrality

Munir has articulated his aspiration to safeguard Pakistan's strategic autonomy and territorial integrity, with the objective of maintaining a neutral middle power status in the global context.

This vision may have taken shape as a response to the deliberate strategic maneuvers of middle powers, which have astutely capitalized on the rivalry between the West and Russia, as well as the competition between the United States and China, to bolster their bargaining positions, all while avoiding being ensnared in their confrontations.

Achieving genuine neutrality may be a tall order though and would require, first and foremost, full independence from foreign aid.

Unfortunately, at present Pakistan is highly reliant on external aid to meet its needs. Bound by geographic, geopolitical, and geo-economic constraints, Pakistan often finds itself with limited options, at times playing a subservient role to major global powers.

In the face of fervent appeals from substantial segments of Pakistani society, calling on the military to lend support to Hamas against Israel and to diplomatically boycott Western backers of Israel, including the United States, Munir has opted to abstain from such actions.

In contrast, he seems focused on navigating Pakistan's response to the demands of both the United States and China without stirring tensions with either side.

He has sought to enhance Pakistan-US defense ties, rekindling US interest in the country after a previous inclination to disengage. A notable case in point is the renewal of the Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA), a crucial element of US-Pakistan defense cooperation, through which the US has extended its offer to assist Pakistan in counterterrorism efforts.

To further solidify ties, Munir visited Washington in mid-December for discussions with senior US military and Biden administration officials, seeking to strengthen US-Pakistan military cooperation and foster investment in Pakistan by urging the US government to explore opportunities through the newly established Special Investment Facility Council.

As for China, despite reports of Beijing’s reluctance to add more projects to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) due to performance issues on Pakistan's part, Munir's renewed commitment to ensuring the security of Chinese interests has injected new life into previously stagnant CPEC projects.

Pakistan's economic revival

One of Munir’s major foreign policy objectives is to address Pakistan's economic challenges through cooperation with friendly nations. His vision for Pakistan’s economic growth and prosperity emerged when he took on a diplomatic role in securing funding from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to fulfill IMF preconditions for a crucial bailout package. While this prevented Pakistan from facing a debt default, it also brought significant embarrassment due to the harsh conditions attached to the IMF bailout in an already crisis-ridden country.

Indicating a shift away from geopolitics and toward geo-economics, Munir has committed to leading Pakistan toward self-reliance by leveraging its resource advantages.

His vision includes a policy aimed at ending dependency and promoting self-sufficiency. To expedite these initiatives, a new “single-window” investment facilitation body, the SIFC, was established under his leadership in June of this year. Its primary objective is to attract foreign investments across various sectors, such as mining, agriculture, information technology, and energy, from affluent Gulf countries, China, and the United States.

Munir has urged foreign investors to explore Pakistan's untapped natural resources, estimated to be worth US$6 trillion, including deposits of copper, gold, sulfur, lead, and zinc, among others. He has also encouraged local investors to participate in these endeavors.

In discussions with Pakistan's business community, Munir outlined his plans for economic recovery. Emphasizing his commitment to geo-economics, he underscored his efforts to convince Gulf monarchs to consider investing up to US$100 billion in Pakistan.

Munir's broader approach to economic diplomacy underscores his vision, favoring development partnerships over development assistance. This shift also signifies a change in Pakistan's traditional military approach of providing military bases to now offering economic bases.

Key takeaways

Munir’s geostrategic vision for Pakistan, though it may sound idealistic, has already scored several successes. To revive the domestic economy, he has launched a comprehensive crackdown on corruption, smuggling, energy theft, illegal practices, and unauthorized immigration.

Munir has earned praise for his commitment to revitalizing Pakistan's economy, presenting himself as the guarantor of stability in the country and the primary point of contact for the international community. This underscores his aim of transforming Pakistan into an important market that can bring together various global economic interests.

On the security front, Munir has escalated military operations against terrorist outfits like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, declining to engage in talks for peace.

Furthermore, he has strengthened the military’s defense engagements by forging military cooperation agreements with countries across the Central, West, East, and South Asian regions.

Pakistan recently hosted the “Eternal Brotherhood-II” multinational counterterrorism exercise, reflecting Munir's two-pronged strategy.

Firstly, he aims to capitalize on Pakistan's pivotal role in combating terrorism originating from Afghanistan, addressing concerns among both neighboring nations and global powers such as the US, China, and Russia. Secondly, he seeks to counterbalance India's influence by strengthening regional military alliances.

At the same time, Munir's foreign policy aspirations entail significant risk and could have serious consequences for Pakistan.

To begin with, it remains uncertain whether his expanded role in governance will effectively enhance the military's softer image and bolster Pakistan's global reputation, especially given that many of its major challenges are still attributed to the actions of the military establishment.

Additionally, establishing Pakistan as a stabilizing regional security actor seems to be a daunting task, particularly in the context of heightened tensions with its immediate neighbor, Afghanistan.

Achieving a neutral middle power status presents its own set of difficulties, and this objective may prove elusive until Pakistan gains a certain level of economic independence.

To date, Pakistan's efforts to attract significant new investments from the Gulf states have run into difficulties, given the latter’s predominant focus on the ongoing Gaza crisis.

There is limited evidence to suggest that Gulf nations will come to Pakistan's aid in the near future. As a result, the SIFC has struggled to finalize long-awaited billion-dollar foreign transactions. With limited foreign support available, Pakistan continues to heavily depend on financial assistance from organizations like the IMF and investments from China.

It seems that the most critical foreign policy challenge confronting Munir is the integration of soft power with hard power.

This requires finding a delicate balance between security and economic considerations, necessitating a departure from traditional military strategies to embrace alternative methods of advancing national interests. Given the unique strategic culture of the military, which may lack an understanding of the nuances of civilian affairs and the intricacies of soft power, expectations for progress from Munir may be limited.

With two more years ahead, the success of Munir's foreign policy hinges on addressing several crucial questions. How does he plan to balance fostering economic growth with Pakistan's current economic dependence? Could Munir's geo-economic strategy unintentionally lead Pakistan into another debt trap?

To prevent Pakistan from becoming overly reliant on the exploitation of natural resources and transforming into a rentier state, what proactive measures does he intend to take?

Additionally, as Pakistan navigates strained relations with neighboring India and Afghanistan, how will Gen. Munir achieve Pakistan’s long-term security goals? Moreover, how does he plan to navigate its position amid the rivalry between the United States and China without taking sides? Importantly, what specific steps will he take to bridge the gap between civilian leadership and the military establishment, ensuring a cohesive and effective foreign policy strategy?

 Courtesy: Middle East Institute

 

Saudi Arabia and Iran reaffirm full commitment to implement Beijing agreement

Saudi Arabia and Iran have reaffirmed their full commitment to implementing the Beijing Agreement, reports Saudi Gazette.

The first meeting of the Saudi-Chinese-Iranian Tripartite Committee concluded in Beijing on Friday. The meeting was held to follow up on the Beijing Agreement, under the chairmanship of Deng Li, the Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister. The Saudi delegation was led by Waleed Al-Khereiji, Deputy Foreign Minister, and the Iranian delegation by Dr. Ali Bagheri Kani, Deputy Foreign Minister.

The meeting reviewed the positive outcomes in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran in light of the Beijing Agreement, which was brokered by China last March. This included reopening embassies in Riyadh and Tehran, and the reciprocal visits and meetings of the two countries' foreign ministers.

Both Saudi Arabia and Iran expressed appreciation for China's significant role in this process and hosting the meeting.

The Chinese side confirmed its readiness to continue playing a constructive role and supporting Saudi and Iranian efforts to further enhance relations.

The three parties discussed various aspects of tripartite cooperation. They also expressed concern about the ongoing situation in the Gaza Strip as a threat to regional and international peace and security, emphasizing the need for an immediate cessation of military operations in Gaza, sustainable relief for civilians, and opposing the forced displacement of Palestinians. They agreed that any arrangement regarding the future of Palestine must reflect the will of the Palestinian people, supporting their right to establish their own state and determine their destiny.

The participants agreed to continue the meetings of the tripartite committee, with the next meeting scheduled for June 2024 in Saudi Arabia, following a gracious invitation from the Kingdom.

Maersk to pause container ship traffic through Red Sea

Danish shipping company A.P. Moller-Maersk will pause all container shipments through the Red Sea until further notice and send them on a detour around Africa, a spokesperson for the company told Reuters on Friday.

"Following the near-miss incident involving Maersk Gibraltar yesterday and yet another attack on a container vessel today, we have instructed all Maersk vessels in the area bound to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait to pause their journey until further notice," the company said in a statement.

Maersk on Thursday said its vessel Maersk Gibraltar was targeted by a missile while travelling from Salalah, Oman, to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and that the crew and vessel were reported safe.

Earlier on Friday Maersk denied a claim by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement that the militia had struck a Maersk vessel sailing towards Israel.

"The vessel was not hit," a Maersk spokesperson told Reuters in an emailed statement following the Houthi claim.

The Houthis had claimed they carried out a military operation against a Maersk container vessel, directly hitting it with a drone. The Houthis, who made the claim in a statement, did not release any evidence.

Maersk said the company was deeply concerned about the highly escalated security situation in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

"The recent attacks on commercial vessels in the area are alarming and pose a significant threat to the safety and security of seafarers," it wrote in the statement.

 

 

US coalition to halt Houthi threat to shipping

The Biden administration is building an international coalition to halt the threat the Iranian-backed Houthis pose to international shipping routes in the Red Sea, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters in Israel on Friday.

“We will continue to take every step we deem necessary and appropriate to deal with the threat the Houthis pose,” he said, adding that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin would tackle this issue during his visit to Israel and the region next week.

“That response shouldn’t just be from the US. It should be a broader coalition of countries working together in concert,” he said.

The Houthis have said they are attacking ships to protest Israel’s military campaign to oust Hamas from Gaza, but Sullivan said the issue was much broader, particularly given Iran’s involvement.

“We are building a coalition we are working to ensure and rally the nations of the world, all of whom have an interest in seeing this stop,” Sullivan said.

“While the Houthis are pulling the trigger they are being handed the gun by Iran and Iran has a responsibility to take steps themselves to cease these attacks because they are a fundamental threat to international law and international peace and security,” he said.

“This is not about the US and Israel, this is about the entire international community,” Sullivan explained.

“The Houthis represent a material threat to freedom of navigation to commercial shipping, to lawful commerce and they are doing so in a vital artery,” he added.

“The US is working with the international community, with partners from the region and from all over the world to deal with this threat,” he added.

He spoke as a Liberia-flagged container ship sustained damage from an aerial attack as it was sailing through the Bab al-Mandab strait, causing a fire on the deck and a container to fall overboard, the British maritime security firm Ambrey said on Friday.

Ambrey reported the vessel was owned by Hapag-Lloyd and had been sailing south through the Bab al-Mandab strait in the southern Red Sea when it was attacked by a projectile 50 nautical miles north of the Yemeni Red Sea port of Mokha.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking vessels in Red Sea shipping lanes and firing drones and missiles at Israel since the start of the Gaza war

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Tuesday they carried out a military operation against the Norwegian commercial tanker STRINDA.

The group targeted the tanker with a rocket after the crew refused to respond to all warnings, Houthi military spokesperson Yehia Sareea said in a televised statement.

He added that the group had managed to obstruct the passage of several ships in recent days, acting in support of the Palestinians.

He vowed that the Houthis would continue blocking all ships heading to Israeli ports until Israel allows the entry of food and medical aid into the Gaza Strip - more than 1,000 miles from the Houthi seat of power in Sanaa.

 

 

Saudia and Iran share same stance on Gaza

Saudi Arabian foreign minister has stated that the kingdom shares Iran’s position over the Gaza issue and that further international efforts are needed to put a stop to Israel’s assault on the Palestinian people.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud held a meeting on the sidelines of the Global Refugee Forum (GRF) in Geneva on Wednesday.

During their discussion, the two senior diplomats talked about a variety of bilateral, regional, and global topics, with a focus on finding a solution to stop the Zionist regime’s attacks on Gaza.

Saudi Arabia, according to Bin Farhan, agrees with Iran on the need of supporting the Palestinian people, establishing a prompt truce in Gaza, and delivering humanitarian relief to the beleaguered enclave.

The Saudi minister praised the improving relations between Riyadh and Tehran, calling them on the right track, and stated that his nation supports the growth of political and economic cooperation with Iran.

He called for the fulfillment of the accords, hailing the two countries’ cooperation agreements as a strong point.

Amir Abdollahian expressed gratitude to Saudi Arabia for hosting the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit to discuss the Gaza conflict.

He also condemned the ongoing war crimes and genocide committed by the Israeli regime in Gaza and the West Bank, calling for concerted efforts from Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the other Muslim and regional states to put pressure on the United States and Zionist regime to guarantee an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and provide humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people.

Amir Abdollahian and his Lebanese counterpart Abdallah Bou Habib held a meeting on the sidelines of the GRF in Switzerland on Tuesday.

The foreign minister of Iran issued a warning, stating that if the Zionist regime’s military attacks on Gaza continue, it could escalate tensions and lead to a regional explosion.

“Iran and Lebanon are on the same front, and Iran only wants the best interests of the Lebanese government, nation, and resistance front,” Amir Abdollahian said, praising the ongoing discussions on a range of bilateral and regional issues between Tehran and Beirut.

Touching on the critical circumstances in Palestine, the senior Iranian diplomat said, “It is necessary that the United States put an end to its unlimited support for the Zionist regime and its war crimes against the Palestinian nation.” 

“Lebanon has always been one of the key pillars of anti-Zionist resistance in the region,” Amir Abdollahian continued, emphasizing the necessity for joint efforts to stop the Zionists’ genocide in Palestine.

Lebanese foreign minister expressed satisfaction with the meeting with his Iranian counterpart, stating that “consultations between the two sides have always been fruitful and constructive.”

Bou Habib also spoke on the situation in Lebanon, namely the situation along the country’s southern borders with territories under occupation. 

Iran’s foreign minister asserted that in order to make up for the Zionist regime’s inability to crush the Palestinian resistance groups, the US administration is orchestrating political schemes for the Gaza Strip’s post-war destiny.

Amir Abdollahian emphasized the need for Islamic countries to resolutely stand with Palestine in opposition to the Zionist regime’s ongoing war crimes and brutal attacks in Gaza and the West Bank. 

He further highlighted the blow to the Zionist regime’s dignity on October 07 and its inability to produce meaningful results despite committing heinous war crimes against Palestinian citizens over the last two months.

Ammar, for his part, underlined the need of working together to raise relations to a higher level.

He also advocated for more effective measures to strengthen relationships, notably in the economic and commercial domains, in line with their political ties.

The Tunisian foreign minister praised Iran for its constant support for Palestine, saying, “In Tunisia, we ardently support the cause of Palestine, firmly believing that killing the Palestinian nation will not lead to any gains.”

 

Can Gaza massacre bring change in Saudi foreign policy?

Prior to the October 07 operation by the Hamas resistance movement, many believed a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel was around the corner. 

The first time Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto leader acknowledged that the kingdom was moving towards normalization with Israel, was on September 20, 2023.

“Every day we get closer,” Mohammad Bin Salman said during an interview with Fox News. He added that such a pact would be the biggest historical deal since the Cold War. 

While Palestinians have vehemently condemned previous Arab-Israeli normalization agreements, labeling them as treacherous stabs in the back and betrayals to the Palestinian cause, Bin Salman argued that his deal with the Israelis would ease the life of the Palestinians. 

Since the 1980s, Saudi Arabia has been a vociferous advocate of the two-state solution. The Fahd Peace Plan in 1981 and the Arab Peace Initiative proposed by Riyadh in 2002, which also garnered endorsement in 2007 and 2017, both proposed that Israel become a state recognized by the Arab League, contingent upon Israel withdrawing its forces from the territories it occupied following the Six-Day War in 1967.

Additionally, the peace initiatives stipulated that Israel permit the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

"Despite the widespread embrace of the Saudi peace plan by the majority of Arab states, Israel's reaction to both Saudi initiatives was unfavorable. Israel insisted on maintaining Jerusalem as a unified capital and also rejected the right of return for Palestinian refugees, impacting hundreds of thousands of individuals," said Fuad al-Ibrahim, a seasoned expert on Saudi Arabia.

The expert further noted that with the passage of time and Israel's firm rejection of the two-state solution, Saudi Arabia appears to have become less enthusiastic about championing the Palestinian cause.

Instead, it seems to be prioritizing the advancement of its ties with Israel, potentially seeking stronger rapport with Washington.

"It seems that solidifying ties with Israel has become a prerequisite for maintaining a strong relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US government. MbS appears to be actively fostering this relationship with Israel to secure his political career," the expert remarked.

Reports indicate that as part of any potential normalization agreement with Israel, Saudi Arabia has pursued added concessions from Washington, such as a security pact, the sale of advanced weaponry, and assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program.

Allegedly, Riyadh has also requested that Israel uphold the possibility of a two-state solution, although given recent events and the situation in Gaza, it seems impossible to envision Israel endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Following Israel's aggressive actions against Palestinians in Gaza, Riyadh declared that the potential deal is on hold. Nonetheless, Israeli reports contend that Bin Salman has agreed to build on the US-mediated discussions aimed at normalizing relations with Israel once the conflict in Gaza is over. However, in light of shifting public opinion against the regime, it may prove challenging for the custodian of Islam's holiest sites to resume talks with Israeli officials.

"From my perspective, Operation Al-Aqsa Storm and Israel’s subsequent response to the offensive create obstacles for MbS and others to move forward with normalization with Israel, potentially endangering their credibility and political careers. Nevertheless, this may be a transient situation, contingent upon the political dynamics within Israel and the military landscape in Gaza and the broader region," emphasized al-Ibrahim.

Israel’s disproportionate response to the October 07 Hamas attack might have also served as a wake-up call for Saudi’s ruling family. 

That’s because Riyadh, like everyone else, noticed that Washington’s reaction to the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and its reaction to the slaughter of thousands of civilians in Gaza were undeniably disparate. After Western media outlets turned the screw on the Saudi prince for his involvement in the murder of a royal insider-turned-critic, who was killed at the kingdom's Istanbul consulate in 2018, Washington decided that backing its traditional West Asian ally in the particular case would be too costly.

US President Joe Biden promised to turn the kingdom into a pariah during his presidential campaign and proceeded to release a declassified US intelligence assessment, confirming the crown prince’s complicity in the killing. 

Though Bin Salman was able to avoid reckoning, his reputation was severely damaged as someone who liked to tout himself as a bold reformer pursuing new freedoms in the Saudi kingdom. 

Meanwhile, the US has shown unequivocal support for Israel’s killing campaign in Gaza, and refrained from bloviating its usual slogans of human rights to let Israel finish its stated mission of eradicating Hamas.

Washington seems willing to help the Israeli regime omit its opponents, not caring that it has to stand against the entire world to make it happen.  

The Khashoggi case was not an outlier. The US pulled the plug on Riyadh when Yemen’s Ansarullah movement decided to attack Saudi Arabia’s main oil processing facilities in 2019, making no concrete efforts whatsoever to help its ally prop up its security apparatus. That’s while the Democrats and Republicans are working in tandem to secure a US$14.5 billion military aid package for Israel, amid a budget deficit crisis in home. 

Gaza war brings Saudis closer to China
 
Saudi Arabia had already begun to buttress its relations with China after getting the stiff-arm from the US during the two instances. But the kingdom seems to have shifted even more towards Beijing’s orbit with the occurrence of the latest war in West Asia. 

A delegation of Arab and Muslim ministers, including Saudi Arabia’s Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, travelled to Beijing in November to push for an end to the war in Gaza with China’s aid. 

The move largely sidelined the US, which has been the target of scathing criticism from its Arab allies since the beginning of the latest wave of Israeli attacks on Gaza. 

Operation Al-Aqsa Storm seems to have defied previous predictions on many levels. Saudi Arabia may have to recalibrate its foreign policies, considering the amount of hate it may receive from Muslim masses across the world once it decides to move forward with normalization talks with Israel. It might also be less willing than before to count on the US as a reliable partner, given Washington’s penchant for leaving Saudi Arabia alone, when a crisis strikes.   

Courtesy: The Tehran Times