Israel’s unabated bombardment at Gaza is raising
questions over how the coastal enclave would be managed once the fighting is
over. This exposes a growing divide between United States and Israeli officials
on the issue.
Several
US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have said
Israel should not occupy Gaza and the strip must be run by Palestinians. That
has contrasted with Israel’s messaging.
Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is vowing to hold Gaza for an indefinite
period once the dust settles, though he has not clarified what exactly that
would mean for Palestinians.
The
post-conflict management of Gaza is also dependent on the outcome of the war
and whether Israel fulfills its mission to eradicate Palestinian militant group
Hamas — along with how much destruction is inflicted to that end.
“The military operation itself may go on for a very, very
long time, depending upon what form it takes and how successful it is, there
are different possibilities,” said Ian Lesser, the vice president of German
Marshall Fund US.
“In the
worst case, it could be that Israel is dealing with an ongoing
counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operation that is essentially
open-ended,” he added. “So it could be a long time until we even see some kind
of new phase.”
Israel held Gaza from 1967 to 2005, when it withdrew
following a major Palestinian uprising.
Hamas has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, but the US-designated
terrorist group is now fighting for its survival after it launched a surprise
attack on southern Israel October 07 and killed 1,200 people, according to
Israel’s revised figures.
Both
Israel and the US agree that Hamas cannot be returned to power in Gaza, but the
messaging on what happens next is muddied.
Blinken said there may need to be a transition period at the
end of the war, but that it was imperative that the Palestinian people be
central to governance in Gaza.
“We’re
very clear on no reoccupation, just as we’re very clear on no displacement of
the Palestinian population,” he said at a press event this week. “We need to
see and get to, in effect, unity of governance when it comes to Gaza and the
West Bank, and ultimately to a Palestinian state.”
On Friday, Blinken also reiterated that the US is against
the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and any efforts to reduce its
territory. He also said Gaza must not be used as a terrorist base ever again.
But Israel is still reeling from the October 07 attacks and
officials are pushing to take whatever steps necessary to protect their people,
both during and after the war.
Netanyahu told ABC that he is committed to
ensuring Israel cannot suffer the fate of October 07 again, promising a new
security reality for the citizens of Israel.
“For an indefinite period, Israel will have the overall
security responsibility because we’ve seen what happens when we don’t have it,”
he said. “When we don’t have that security responsibility, what we have is the
eruption of Hamas terror on a scale that we couldn’t imagine.”
While
Netanyahu later clarified he does not seek to reoccupy Gaza, he said
at a meeting on Friday that Israel would have total security control of the
coastal enclave after the war, according to Israeli media.
It’s unclear what that will look like, whether it would mean
an Israeli presence along the border of Gaza or involve control within the
territory itself.
White House National Security Council spokesperson John
Kirby said Wednesday the US was having active discussions with Israel about the
issue but declined to speak on Israel’s specific intentions.
While
Israel has resisted a global pressure campaign calling for a ceasefire, it
remains susceptible to pressure from the US, its key security partner. Israel
agreed to officially implement four-hour humanitarian pauses each day after
pressure from the Biden administration.
Paul Fritz, a professor of political science at Hofstra
University who specializes in international conflict, said he views the ongoing
dialogue as bargaining between allies with different objectives.
“There
are definitely some significant rifts between the US and Israel, along with
other states in the international system, but the sort of quiet diplomacy
that’s going on might be bearing some fruit,” he said.
“Any movement in that way could ultimately be helpful
because these are small issues compared to the big political questions that are
regarding what to do after the war.”
The war
in Gaza is dividing the United States into pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel
camps, and any Israeli occupation after the fighting would only widen those
divisions. Occupation could also spark more anger against Israel, including
among those still supportive of its retaliatory war.
In the Senate, progressives like Sens. Bernie Sanders and
Elizabeth Warren have not joined calls for a ceasefire, but they have issued
statements opposing any potential occupation.
“Palestinians
have a right to determine their own future,” Warren posted on X, formerly
Twitter. “Israeli military occupation of Gaza undermines efforts to build two
independent states that advance respect for every human being.”
Rather than occupation, the US has backed the idea of the
Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the Israeli-occupied West Bank, also
taking over the Gaza Strip.
PA Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh told PBS the
government is open to governing Gaza only in the event of a comprehensive
solution that creates a Palestinian state.
“We are
not going to go to Gaza on an Israeli military tank,” he said. “We are going to
go to Gaza as part of a solution that deals with the question of Palestine that
deals with occupation.”
There’s
no guarantee that Palestinian people accept the PA as a governing body, given
its own issues with corruption, ineffectiveness and being perceived as too passive
toward Israel.
Will
Wechsler, the senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East
Programs at the Atlantic Council, said, it was unrealistic to go back to the PA
in the event that Israel defeats Hamas.
He said they are struggling to do the practical work to
govern in areas of the West Bank they currently control.
Wechsler
said the PA can still play an important role in the transition process, which
could involve an international peacekeeping force.
“It’s going to be a real challenge and this is the most
positive scenario,” Wechsler added.
The war
has also brought a renewed focus on a two-state solution — in which Israel and
Palestine would exist in separate countries side-by-side — which many see as
the only path toward lasting peace.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told
Reuters there must be a serious negotiation for a two-state solution with the
involvement of the US and other interested parties.
Blinken
said at a press briefing on Friday that the tragedy of October 07 reinforces us
in our conviction and our commitment to durable and lasting peace through a
two-state solution.
However, Hamas represents a swath of the Palestinian
population that rejects the idea of existing peacefully alongside Israel, and
even if the militant group is defeated in the war, the ideology will live on in
some form.
The war is already taking a massive death toll, with more
than 11,000 Palestinians killed so far, according to the Hamas-run Health
Ministry. That has spurred fears that more Palestinians will be radicalized
after the war, continuing the cycle of violence.
“That’s the real danger,” said Fritz from Hofstra
University, for Israel, for the Palestinians that they are going to be driven
in this way.”
