What is behind recent turmoil in Lebanon?

Lebanon has witnessed a number of incidents over the past weeks that have made the headlines. Armed clashes broke out at Ain al-Hilweh, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Southern Lebanon, between the Fatah faction and extremist militants, which Prime Minister Najib Mikati blamed on outside forces and their repeated attempts to use Lebanon as a battleground for the settling of scores.

Between July 29 and August 02, explosions and gunshots shook the camp, resulting in at least 12 deaths, dozens of injuries, and the displacement of around 2,000 people.

There are different narratives about how the fighting started, but it made international headlines. It is unlike the killing of Palestinians by Israelis in the occupied West Bank or the besieged Gaza Strip. 

At the same time, the Saudi Arabian embassy in Beirut issued a call on its citizens to leave Lebanon and not to travel to areas where there are armed clashes. The embassy did not specify which areas to avoid. 

A statement stressed the importance of adhering to the Saudi travel ban to Lebanon. A few other Persian Gulf states also updated their travel advice for Lebanon. 

Some analysts also went on regional media predicting things to turn ugly in light of the Saudi warning. 

However, several days have passed, and nothing has happened, with the exception of damage incurred to the Lebanese tourism industry. 

Sources have told news outlets close to Hezbollah that the statements of the Persian Gulf embassies were merely political and related to the presidential election. 

A ceasefire is in place at the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp and appears to be holding. 

It's not the first time that fighting has erupted at the camp or other Palestinian refugee camps in Southern Lebanon. 

The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, condemned the fighting during a speech delivered on the Day of Ashura, saying it only undermines the resistance against the Israeli enemy. 

During the speech, Sayyed Nasrallah also warned Israel against its occupation of Lebanese territory along the border with the occupied Palestinian territories. 

On Tuesday, the Lebanese army organized a field tour along the Blue Line for representatives of member states of the UN Security Council accredited to Lebanon in the presence of local, regional, and international media.

The tour included a presentation of the Blue Line (a border line between Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories published by the United Nations on June 07, 2000 for the purposes of determining whether Israel had fully withdrawn from Lebanon) with detailed information about the points of contention. 

Upon arrival, two Israeli gunboats violated Lebanese territorial waters in full view of the international delegation.

The delegation also moved to a Lebanese army station at Ras al-Naqouras adjacent to an Israeli watchtower, where surveillance cameras, jamming and listening devices, other espionage equipment as well as troops are holed up in it.  

Some army officers in the Fifth Brigade explained to the international diplomats the extent of the Israeli violations on Lebanese territory.

Then Brigadier General Mounir Shehadeh delivered a speech in which he affirmed, “Lebanon has reservations about these violations, including 13 border positions still occupied by the Zionist enemy," stressing that the border demarcation was completed in 1923 and that Lebanon will never accept any amendments. 

"These areas at the southern border have been recorded since the adoption of the Blue Line, and therefore they are a line of withdrawal (for Israeli occupation) and not a demarcation of the borders," General Shehadeh stated.

The demarcation of Lebanon’s border with Palestine took place in 1923. It was then enshrined in an armistice agreement in 1949.
Shehadeh stressed, “Lebanon does not care about what is said about a land demarcation, and that this word is not present in our dictionary as a Lebanese army and as a Lebanese government. We are talking about fixing the borders and showing the Lebanese borders, not demarcating the borders.”  

"When the Blue Line was drawn up in the year 2000 by the United Nations, it came in more than one place that does not coincide with international borders, and we called it a line of withdrawal, not a border line, and therefore we seek that the Blue Line becomes identical with what is identified in internationally."

He concluded by stressing, "We will preserve Lebanon's right to every grain of soil from its land, and this is what we are doing."

Israel has called on Lebanon via international mediators to remove two tents set up by Hezbollah in the Sheba'a Farm area. Beirut's response was that the two tents are located on Lebanese territory.

Tensions have escalated further recently after Israel re-occupied northern Ghajar village, southeast Lebanon. 

Israeli media reports have said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet his top military commanders to study the situation. 

During his Ashura speech, Nasrallah issued a warning to Israeli political and military leaders saying, "Be careful of any stupidity. The resistance in Lebanon will not step back from its duty. It is ready for any option, danger, or stupidity."

He pointed out, "Israel speaks of Hezbollah threats on the border when the regime has the nerve to occupy our territory."

In the last Israeli war against Lebanon in July 2006, the regime acknowledged its defeat, as it was taken aback by the strength of Hezbollah's power. 

According to experts, the Lebanese resistance has between 100,000 to 150,000 soldiers along with a wide array of powerful missiles and other sophisticated weapons it has kept secret. 

Experts believe that if Israel were to wage a war against Lebanon today, Hezbollah is capable of capturing the entire Galilee region and perhaps more (northern occupied Palestinian territories) within the first two to three days of the war. 

That is one-third of the entire occupied Palestinian territories. 

Many things have changed since July 2006. Not only has Hezbollah become more powerful, but the region has changed. 

There is a possibility that any Israeli war on Lebanon would draw in Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha'abi, Yemen's Ansarullah as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip and the newly formed resistance in the occupied West Bank. Syria would also find a good opportunity to liberate the Golan Heights and attack from that direction.

Israel can assassinate resistance figures from the air. But with the introduction of drones on the battlefield, the regime's air superiority is no longer efficient, according to experts. 

When it comes to land combat, the regime has proven its cowardness, experts say. 

Israel can launch a war against Lebanon's Hezbollah, but as Sayyed Nasrallah noted, it would be "stupid" to do so.
 

Pakistan stock market closes almost flat

The week ended on August 11, 2023 started on a positive note, but faced volatilities as the week prolonged with the benchmark index closing the week at 48,424 points, reflecting a decrease of 0.33%WoW.

The average daily turnover clocked in at 287 million, down 26.9%WoW. The market capitalization dropped to PKR7,232 billion, from PkR7,290 billion.

Major drivers during the week remained multimillion investment commitments by GCC countries, UAE and Saudi Arabia and the triumphant oversubscription of MTBs much higher than the anticipated pre-auction target.

Furthermore, the total foreign exchange reserves witnessed a 0.9%WoWdecline, additionally workers’ remittances declined by 7.3%MoM and 19.3%YoY to US$2.03 billion in July 2023. Cumulatively remittances for 7MCY23 were reported at US$14.9 billion, down 16.9%YoY.

Other notable news from the week were: 1) CCoE approval for up-gradation for local refineries , 2) transfer of 15 companies to MSCI FM index from the small cap index, and 41 other companies were added to the small cap MSCI Index, 3) emergence of NBP, BoP and U bank as the top agri-microfinance creditors, 4) penetration of local rice traders into the global rice trade nexus as a result of restriction imposed by India on rice export, and 5) dissolution of the national assembly and anticipation of the caretaker govt.

Sector-wise, REFINERY declined by 11%, while INV. BANKS/ INV. COS/ SECURITIES COS. gained 8.3%.

Top performing scrips were: DAWH, AICL, FABL, UBL, and NATF, while laggards included PSMC, HCAR, CNERGY, SML, SEARL, and NRL.

BANKS/DFIs recorded a net sell of US$6.9 million. Insurance Companies absorbed all of the selling with a net buy of US$6.4mn.

The market is expected to portray positivity, while the installation of the caretaker government and the relation it fosters with IMF are likely to usher in market stability.

Despite a significant upside, market still remains attractive. Additionally, the influx of investments from UAE and Saudi can bolster and affirm stability.

Market participants are advised to implement a cautious approach when investing while focusing on dollar denominated revenue stream companies like E&Ps and Technology to hedge against currency risk or in companies with healthy dividend yields.

Iran to establish pavilion at IFTECH Pakistan

The managing director of Iranian Advanced Industries Research and Development Support Fund (Saha) said Iran is going to establish a pavilion at Pakistan’s 18th International Exhibition of Food and Beverage Processing and Packaging Technologies (IFTECH Pakistan 2023) being held in Lahore during September 7-9, IRNA reported.

According to Hamid Vatan-Doust, the pavilion of the Islamic Republic of Iran at IFTECH Pakistan will be held by Saha in collaboration with the country’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO).

“Attending the Pakistan exhibition is in line with the macro-policies of the government, considering the cultural affinity of the two countries, as well as the very wide market of Pakistan, especially in the field of food industries,” Vatan-Doust said.

The presence of Iranian companies in IFTECH 2023 under the framework of this pavilion, while reducing costs for them, will ensure a concentrated, consistent, and dignified presence of Iranians in this exhibition event.

The official noted that the fund is going to provide the companies interested in attending the exhibition various services including visa, flight tickets, accommodation, translator, etc.

 

Pakistan polls likely to be delayed

According to Saudi Gazette, Pakistan's parliament has been formally dissolved, but polls to be held within 90 days may be delayed. The electoral commission says electoral boundaries must be redrawn to reflect fresh census data, a months-long process.

Last week, former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested and sent to jail, and then barred from politics for five years. He had openly challenged the powerful military establishment and claimed it was petrified of elections.

With President Arif Alvi's order on Wednesday to dissolve the National Assembly, a caretaker government will take charge. Outgoing Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his government have been given three days to name an interim leader.

According to an Election Commission of Pakistan official, "The elections will be held once the census is done, which will take about four months' time. As a result, the elections may be delayed till next year."

Sharif, who warned that the country cannot progress without national unity, also told reporters recently that polls may not be held this year.

Some feel the election is being delayed as the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) coalition isn't confident about winning at the polls, due to Khan's enduring popularity, as well as the effects of runaway inflation despite a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

Despite their once close relationship, Khan has rattled the military like no other politician before him. Senior analyst Rasool Bakhsh Raees even reckons that the former cricket star's detention will increase his popularity.

In May, Khan's arrest on corruption charges sparked nationwide protests that saw at least eight deaths and some 1,400 arrests, amid unprecedented attacks on military property and buildings.

The 70-year old, who is appealing his conviction on graft charges, has claimed that the military's goal was to "eventually put me into prison and to crush my party."

But the rule remains the same: anyone who challenges Pakistan's military, even someone with the charisma and international stature of Khan, must go. The former cricket star is simply the latest politician since the 1970s to find this out the hard way.

Former senator Afrasiab Khattak said, “There are two systems of government operating in parallel. Now, the unsanctioned, de facto force wants to take over the parliamentary process.”

"Pakistan's military has always been powerful, but they want more powers so that their unsanctioned rule is not challenged either by politicians, activists, or journalists."

Two draconian laws were tabled in the National Assembly last week, in a bid to further enhance the powers of the military and intelligence agencies.

Proposed amendments to the century-old Official Secrets Act will broadly empower the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) to arrest citizens over "suspected breach of official secrets". In addition, a new bill recommends a three-year jail term for anyone who discloses the identity of an intelligence official.

The amendments provoked a ruckus in parliament, with both the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and PML-N's coalition partners calling the government out for passing draconian laws in haste and without discussion.

Senator Mushtaq Ahmed of Jamaat-e-Islami also warned that the Official Secrets Act amendment will grant intelligence agencies extraordinary powers of arrest and search without warrant. This will have an impact on the human rights, individual rights and press freedom across the country.

The Pakistani intelligence services are regularly accused of illegally detaining opposition members, politicians, activists and journalists, with human rights organizations noting the increasing number of enforced disappearances every month.

In the month of July alone, 157 more cases of enforced disappearances were reported, according to the government-led Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances.

The bills have been sent to President Alvi, a co-founder of the PTI, and must be signed by him before they can be legislated into law. 

US citizens moved from Iranian prison to house arrest

Four US citizens detained by Iran have left Tehran's Evin prison and are now under house arrest, a lawyer for one of them told Reuters on Thursday, saying he hoped this was a step toward them eventually leaving the Islamic Republic.

The Iranian Americans include businessmen Siamak Namazi, and Emad Shargi, as well as environmentalist Morad Tahbaz, who also has British nationality, said Jared Genser, a lawyer who represents Namazi. The fourth US citizen's identity has not been made public.

"The move by Iran of the American hostages from Evin Prison to an expected house arrest is an important development," Genser said in a statement. "While I hope this will be the first step to their ultimate release, this is at best the beginning of the end and nothing more .... There are simply no guarantees about what happens from here."

Freeing the four would remove a major irritant between the United States and Iran, though the nations remain at odds on issues from the Iranian nuclear program to Tehran's support for Shi'ite militias in nations such as Iraq and Lebanon.

Namazi, who in 2016 was convicted of espionage-related charges the United States has rejected as baseless, has been detained by Iran for more than seven years. His father, Baquer, was allowed to leave Iran in October last year for medical treatment after being detained on similar charges also rejected by Washington.

Tahbaz was arrested in 2018 and sentenced to 10 years in prison for assembly and collusion against Iran's national security and working for the United States as a spy. Shargi was convicted of espionage in 2020 and also sentenced to 10 years.

Iranian Americans, whose US citizenship is not recognized by Tehran, are often pawns between the two nations, which are at odds over issues including Iran's nuclear program.

In February, NBC News reported Washington and Tehran were holding indirect talks exploring a prisoner exchange and the transfer of billions of dollars of Iranian funds in South Korean banks currently blocked by US sanctions. If transferred, those funds could only be spent for humanitarian purposes.

Any transfer could draw Republican criticism that President Joe Biden, a Democrat, had effectively paid a ransom for the US citizens and that Iran using that money for humanitarian purposes could free up funds for its nuclear program or to support militias in nations such as Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

Canada slaps fresh sanctions on Iran

Canada has slapped new sanctions on Iran, accusing it of destabilizing the region and backing Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, and also targeting the drone and aviation sectors of the nation.

In a statement released on Tuesday, Global Affairs Canada said seven additional individuals had been added to the federal government’s growing list of sanctions aimed against the Iranian nation. It was the 13th round of measures to be presented since October 2022.

“Today’s sanctions list 7 individuals involved in activities that gravely threaten international peace and security or that constitute gross and systemic violations of human rights in Iran,” the GAC statement read.

Ali Akbar Ahmadian, who was appointed Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council in May, is on the list. He is a former commander of the navy division of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC).

Two representatives of the Iranian company Imen Sanat Zaman Fara, which produces equipment for the nation’s Law Enforcement Command, are also sanctioned.

Four executives of aviation companies that manufacture drones are among the other individuals targeted by new Canadian penalties.

GAC purportedly said, “The sanctions build on Canada’s efforts to press Iran to address the legitimate grievances and interests of its citizens and impose costs for its destabilizing behavior abroad.”

These people are prohibited from entering Canada and any assets they may have in the country will be frozen as a result of the penalties.

The additional sanctions, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly claimed, “Send a clear message to Iran that Canada will not tolerate any violations of human rights.”

So far, Ottawa has sanctioned 170 Iranian individuals and 192 Iranian entities, according to its federal government.

Back in July, Nasser Kanaani, the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, said that Iran had reacted to the recent European Union sanctions against Tehran over the alleged provision of drones to Russia, underlining that it did not provide Russia with drones for use in the Ukraine war.

Kanaani also noted, “It has been officially announced many times, the allegation that Iran exported drones to Russia in order to use them against Ukraine is a baseless accusation.”

He added, “Any attempt to link the war in Ukraine to the bilateral cooperation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Russia is an act with purely political goals.”

Referring to the clear and frequent opposition of the Islamic Republic to the war in Ukraine, Kanaani emphasized the need to speed up efforts to stop the war through diplomatic means.

“Unfortunately, the West, with political motivations and resorting to false and unproven claims, is trying to continue using the ineffective and failed policy of imposing sanctions against the Iranian nation,” he added.

Kanani stressed that Iran reserves the right to take countermeasures against the sanctions of the European Union and its members.

Additionally, he asserted that the United States and its European allies have frequently used unilateral sanctions as “an illegal tool” against the Iranian nation.

“Resorting to sanctions is illegal, is a violation of the legal rights of the Iranian nation, and is a violation of human rights,” he said.

Kanaani was referring to the sanctions that have been put in place against Iran over the years by the United States and its European allies - France, Britain, and Germany - particularly after the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and launched a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.

“We believe that three European countries failed to honor the JCPOA obligations as much as the United States did and should be held accountable,” he added.

He stated that after breaking the terms of the deal, they continue to level false allegations against Iran and impose unjustified sanctions on the nation.

“Iran reserves the right to show a proportionate, balanced, and serious response,” he noted.

  

Saudi Arabia to hold international Islamic conference

Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman has approved holding an international Islamic conference in Makkah on August 13 and 14. Around 150 eminent Islamic scholars, muftis, religious leaders, and thinkers from 85 countries around the world will participate in the conference. Heads of Islamic associations and sheikhdoms as well as academics from a number of international universities will also be participating in the two-day event.

The conference, with the theme of “Communication with the departments of religious affairs, ifta, and sheikhdoms in the world and the like,” will be organized by the Ministry of Islamic Affairs, Call and Guidance.

The conference will discuss topics such as moderation, extremism, decadence, extremism, terrorism, tolerance and coexistence among peoples in its seven working sessions.

The conference aims to strengthen the links of communication and integration between the departments of religious affairs, ifta and sheikhdoms in the world to achieve the principles of moderation and to foster the values of tolerance and coexistence among peoples.

It is also to highlight the role of these principles in emphasizing the need to adhere to the Holy Qur’an and the Sunnah of the Prophet, in addition to serving Islam and Muslims, promoting Islamic unity among Muslims, fighting ideas of extremism, and protecting societies from atheism and disintegration.

The conference will demonstrate the Kingdom’s unique experience in propagation to God, spreading the principles of mercy and preserving values in construction, renaissance and progress in various fields while building the society.

The conference would focus on seven major topics. The first of which is the effort of the departments of religious affairs, fatwas, and sheikhdoms in the world and the like in serving Islam and Muslims and promoting Islamic unity.

Secondly, bolster communication and integration between reality and aspirations while the third is exerting efforts to promote the values of tolerance and coexistence among peoples. The other topics are adhering to the teachings of the Holy Book and the Prophet’s Sunnah; spreading moderation in the Qur’an and the Sunnah; strengthening the efforts of the departments of religious affairs, fatwas, and sheikhdoms in the world and the like in combating extremism and terrorism, and continuing efforts to protect society from atheism and decadence.

The organization of the conference comes as part of the ministry’s efforts to perpetuate the approach of moderation through constructive cooperation with international religious leaders, in order to contribute to reducing acts of violence and feelings of hatred among the peoples of the world