Netanyahu causing cumulative damage to US-Israel ties

In a rare move, the US State Department called Israeli envoy Mike Herzog in to voice its displeasure at the Knesset vote the night before repealing the 2005 Disengagement Law in northern Samaria.

According to a brief readout of that meeting, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman conveyed Washington’s concern over the move, including the prohibition on establishing settlements in the northern West Bank. They also discussed the importance of all parties refraining from actions or rhetoric that could further inflame tensions leading into the Ramadan, Passover and Easter holidays.

There was no word regarding how Herzog responded, and neither the Foreign Ministry nor the Prime Minister’s Office statement. What Herzog could have reminded Sherman, but probably did not, is that this was a decision made by the democratically elected government of Israel and passed democratically by its parliament.

Why stress that point? Because the Americans over the last several weeks have expressed concern about the judicial overhaul proposal and the democratic direction of the country. Herzog could have said, “You want democracy? Well, this is democracy.”

Yet, not every decision made democratically is wise, nor the timing particularly opportune. And this is one of those cases.

Not for nothing did Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu block this type of bill from passing the Knesset in the past.

In March 2019, before the first of a cycle of five elections, then-justice minister Ayelet Shaked said that Netanyahu had blocked the cancellation of the Disengagement Law for political reasons, and that her New Right Party would work for the law’s repeal in the next coalition. The prime minister reportedly kept the bill from progressing on numerous occasions from 2015–2019 because he understood its sensitivity, including the impact in could have on his relations with Washington.

It’s a shame that Netanyahu, circa 2023, did not listen to Netanyahu, circa 2015-2019.

Had he done so, it could have spared Israel a reprimand from the US State Department which characterized the law as “provocative and counterproductive,” saying that it contradicted prior commitments given to America 20 years ago by then-prime minister Ariel Sharon, and just a few days ago by the current government.

While Israel can withstand US disapproval of one policy or another, when the disagreements come in quick succession there is a concern about accumulative impact.

The Knesset Disengagement Law comes hot on the heels of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s utterance that there is “no such thing as a Palestinian people.” And that followed his comment that Huwara should be erased. Both remarks were condemned by the US.

This is in addition to America’s stated concern about the judicial reform bill. President Joe Biden, who has pointedly not yet invited Netanyahu to the White House for a meeting, spoke with the prime minister by phone this week and, according to a US readout of that conversation, “underscore[d] his belief that democratic values have always been, and must remain, a hallmark of the US-Israel relationship, that democratic societies are strengthened by genuine checks and balances, and that fundamental changes should be pursued with the broadest possible base of popular support.”

The aggregate of all this is negative, and is coming at a time when Iran continues moving closer to the nuclear finish line and Israel will need US assistance – diplomatic or otherwise – to prevent it from crossing that line and gaining nuclear capabilities.

It is also coming as some in the Democratic Party, and not only the usual suspects of far-Left progressives, are speaking of the need to curtail aid to Israel.

For instance, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy said on Sunday that Washington should condition its aid to Israel. “I think the United States needs to draw a harder line with this government,” he said in a CNN interview.

“If we’re going to continue to be in the business of supporting the Israeli government, they have to be in the continued business of a future Palestinian state.”

Even if the prime minister disagrees with these sentiments, the Netanyahu of past governments would have been attuned to them and adjusted policy accordingly.

The current Netanyahu, however, is not similarly attuned, and the result – as the summons of Herzog to the State Department attests – is bad for Israel-US ties.

Courtesy: The Jerusalem Post

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saudi-Iranian foreign ministers to meet soon

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, have agreed to meet soon and pave the way for the re-opening of embassies under a deal to re-establish ties, Saudi state news agency SPA said on Thursday.

Earlier this month, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to revive relations after years of hostility that had threatened stability and security in the Gulf and helped fuel conflicts in the Middle East from Yemen to Syria.

The ministers spoke by phone to mark the occasion of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, SPA said.

Amirabdollahian emphasized during the call Iran's readiness to strengthen relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran's official news agency IRNA reported.

The foreign ministers of the two countries agreed to meet each other as soon as possible and start preparations for the reopening of embassies and consulates, IRNA added.

The deal between the regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, was announced after previously undisclosed talks in Beijing between top security officials from the two countries.

Analysts say both sides stand to benefit from de-escalation, as Iran seeks to undercut US efforts to isolate it in the region and Saudi Arabia tries to focus on economic development.

Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran in 2016 after its embassy in Tehran was stormed during a dispute between the two countries over Riyadh's execution of a Shi'ite Muslim cleric.

The kingdom also has blamed Iran for missile and drone attacks on its oil facilities in 2019 as well as attacks on tankers in Gulf waters. Iran denied those allegations.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement has also carried out cross-border missile and drone attacks into Saudi Arabia, which leads a coalition fighting the Houthis, and in 2022 extended the strikes to the United Arab Emirates.

 

US Fed raises interest rates amid global banking turmoil

The United States Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, but indicated it was on the verge of pausing further increases in borrowing costs after the recent collapse of two US banks.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure investors about the soundness of the banking system, saying that the management of Silicon Valley Bank failed badly, but that the bank’s collapse did not indicate wider weaknesses in the banking system.

“These are not weaknesses that are running broadly through the banking system,” he said, adding that the takeover of Credit Suisse seemed to have been a positive outcome.

Wall Street ended sharply lower after Powell told a news conference that officials were still intent on fighting inflation while also eyeing the extent to which recent bank failures had cooled demand and slowed lending.

The much anticipated rate hike by the Fed, which had delivered eight previous rate increases in the past year, sought to balance the risk of rampant inflation with the threat of instability in the banking system.

But in a key shift driven by the sudden failures in March of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, the Fed’s latest policy statement no longer says that ongoing increases in rates are likely to be appropriate.

The banking sector has been in turmoil after California regulators on March 10 closed SVB in the largest US bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.

The collapse of the Santa Clara, California-based bank and Signature Bank, another US mid-sized lender, prompted a rout in banking stocks as investors worried about other ticking bombs in the banking system and led to UBS Group’s takeover of the 167-year-old Credit Suisse Group to avert a wider crisis.

The Fed’s relentless rate increases to rein in inflation are among factors blamed for the biggest banking sector meltdown since 2008.

“The Fed is now living on a hope and a prayer that they haven’t done irreparable harm to the banking system,” said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, as the beleaguered First Republic Bank considers its options, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that there is no discussion on insurance for all deposits.

She told a congressional hearing that the government is not considering insuring all uninsured bank deposits.

She also said the Treasury Department has not considered anything to do with guarantees for assets. First Republic shares closed down more than 15%.

As officials grapple with restoring confidence in the banking system, JPMorgan Chase & Co chief executive Jamie Dimon is scheduled to meet Dr Lael Brainard, the director of the White House’s National Economic Council, during the executive’s planned trip to Washington, according to a source familiar with the situation.

Across the Atlantic, European Central Bank top brass said they will watch for signs of stress in bank lending, a day after the ECB warned banks not to be caught off guard by rising rates.

As investors wonder whether the ECB will be able to continue its own rate increases to fight inflation, its chief economist Philip Lane said market jitters may turn out to be a non-event for monetary policy, while a full-blown

 

US and Europe losing battle against Russia

The crisis of the power of United States has begun. Its economy is tipping over, and Western financial markets are quietly panicking. Imperiled by rising interest rates, mortgage-backed securities and US Treasuries are losing their value. The market’s proverbial vibes —feelings, emotions, beliefs, and psychological penchants—suggest a dark turn is underway inside the US economy.

The US power is measured by its military capability as well as economic potential and performance. There is growing realization that the US and European military-industrial capacity cannot keep up with Ukrainian demands for ammunition and equipment. It is an ominous signal sent during the proxy war that Washington insists its Ukrainian surrogate is winning.

Russian economy of force operations in southern Ukraine appear to have successfully ground down attacking Ukrainian forces with the minimal expenditure of Russian lives and resources. While Russia’s implementation of attrition warfare worked brilliantly, Russia mobilized its reserves of men and equipment to field a force that is several magnitudes larger and significantly more lethal than it was a year ago.

Russia’s massive arsenal of artillery systems including rockets, missiles, and drones linked to overhead surveillance platforms converted Ukrainian soldiers fighting to retain the northern edge of the Donbas into pop-up targets. How many Ukrainian soldiers have died is unknown, but one recent estimate wagers between 150,000-200,000 Ukrainians have been killed in action since the war began, while another estimates about 250,000.

Given the glaring weakness of NATO members’ ground, air, and air defense forces, an unwanted war with Russia could easily bring hundreds of thousands of Russian Troops to the Polish border, NATO’s Eastern Frontier. This is not an outcome Washington promised its European allies, but it’s now a real possibility.

In contrast to the Soviet Union’s hamfisted and ideologically driven foreign policymaking and execution, contemporary Russia has skillfully cultivated support for its cause in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.

The fact that the West’s economic sanctions damaged the US and European economies while turning the Russian ruble into one of the international system’s strongest currencies has hardly enhanced Washington’s global standing.

Biden’s policy of forcibly pushing NATO to Russia’s borders forged a strong commonality of security and trade interests between Moscow and Beijing that is attracting strategic partners in South Asia like India, and partners like Brazil in Latin America. The global economic implications for the emerging Russo-Chinese axis and their planned industrial revolution for some 3.9 billion people in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are profound.

Washington’s military strategy to weaken, isolate, or even destroy Russia is a colossal failure and the failure puts Washington’s proxy war with Russia on a truly dangerous path. To press on, undeterred in the face of Ukraine’s descent into oblivion, ignores three metastasizing threats:

1. Persistently high inflation and rising interest rates that signal economic weakness. (The first American bank failure since 2020 is a reminder of US financial fragility.)

2. The threat to stability and prosperity inside European societies already reeling from several waves of unwanted refugees/migrants.

3. The threat of a wider European war.

Inside presidential administrations, there are always competing factions urging the president to adopt a particular course of action. Observers on the outside seldom know with certainty which faction exerts the most influence, but there are figures in the Biden administration seeking an off-ramp from involvement in Ukraine.

Even Secretary of State Antony Blinken, a rabid supporter of the proxy war with Moscow, recognizes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s demand that the West help him recapture Crimea is a red line for Putin that might lead to a dramatic escalation from Moscow.

Backing down from the Biden administration’s malignant and asinine demands for a humiliating Russian withdrawal from eastern Ukraine before peace talks can convene is a step Washington refuses to take. Yet it must be taken.

The higher interest rates rise, and the more Washington spends at home and abroad to prosecute the war in Ukraine, the closer American society moves toward internal political and social turmoil. These are dangerous conditions for any republic.

From all the wreckage and confusion of the last two years, there emerges one undeniable truth. Most Americans are right to be distrustful of and dissatisfied with their government. President Biden comes across as a cardboard cut-out, a stand-in for ideological fanatics in his administration, people that see executive power as the means to silence political opposition and retain permanent control of the federal government.

Americans are not fools. They know that members of Congress flagrantly trade stocks based on inside information, creating conflicts of interest that would land most citizens in jail. They also know that since 1965 Washington led them into a series of failed military interventions that severely weakened American political, economic, and military power.

Far too many Americans believe they have had no real national leadership since January 21, 2021. It is high time the Biden administration found an off-ramp designed to extricate Washington DC, from its proxy Ukrainian war against Russia.

It will not be easy. Liberal internationalism or, in its modern guise, moralizing globalism, makes prudent diplomacy arduous, but now is the time. In Eastern Europe, the spring rains present both Russian and Ukrainian ground forces with a sea of mud that severely impedes movement. But the Russian High Command is preparing to ensure that when the ground dries and Russian ground forces attack, the operations will achieve an unambiguous decision, making it clear that Washington and its supporters have no chance to rescue the dying regime in Kiev. From then on, negotiations will be extremely difficult, if not impossible.

 

UAE and Jordan considering reducing diplomacy with Israel

The Jordanian parliament voted on Wednesday to demand that the government expel Israel's ambassador, according to Jordanian newspaper Al-Dustur.

The vote came after Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said, "There is no such thing as a Palestinian people" in Paris at a podium that showed a map of Israel whose borders extended into Jordan.

Saudi reports on Monday also claimed that The United Arab Emirates is considering reducing its level of diplomatic representation in Israel.

According to the report, the Emirati Foreign Ministry ordered Emirati Ambassador to Israel Mohammed Al Khaja not to meet with any Israeli government officials.

Khaldoon al-Mubarak, the senior advisor to the President of the UAE, is currently visiting Israel, according to Walla News.

Miri Regev, Israel's transportation minister Miri Regev wrote an update on Twitter on Wednesday afternoon, saying that she spoke with her friend, the Ambassador of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed Al-Khaja. He also understood what the media was trying to do - take things out of context. The attempt [to create] conflict between countries became an invitation for another visit."

The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied allegations by Channel 12 that Israel is experiencing a crisis in its relations with the UAE after the country announced that it plans to stop a purchase of Israeli-made defense systems in protest of Netanyahu's government, The Jerusalem Post reported earlier this month.

“Until we can be sure that Prime Minister Netanyahu has a government he can control, we will not be able to jointly operate,” Emirati President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed had reportedly told Israeli officials.

Last month, the UAE was among numerous countries that condemned a comment by Smotrich that the West Bank Palestinian town of Huwara needs to be wiped out, calling the comment racist.

Smotrich had later claimed that his comment had not been sincere and had apologized for it.

OPEC Plus likely to stick to output plan

OPEC Plus is likely to stick to its deal on output cuts of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of the year 2023, even after a banking crisis sent crude prices plunging, three delegates from the producer group told Reuters.

Oil prices hit 15-month lows on Monday in response to the banking crisis that followed the collapse of two US lenders and resulted in Credit Suisse being rescued by Switzerland's biggest bank UBS.

Brent crude was trading around US$75 a barrel on Wednesday morning.

Last October OPEC Plus, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, agreed steep output cuts of 2 million bpd from November until the end of 2023 despite major consumers calling for increases to production.

That decision helped to push Brent close to $100 a barrel, but prices have come under pressure since then as rising interest rates to combat high inflation threaten to stymie oil demand growth.

Falling oil prices are a problem for most of the group's members because their economies rely heavily on oil revenue.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Tuesday said that Moscow will continue with a 500,000 bpd production cut it announced last month, lasting until the end of June.

"This is only a unilateral cut of Russia," one of the delegates said.

"No changes for the group until the end of year," he added.

Another delegate added that no further cuts were planned by the group.

A third delegate said the recent slump in oil prices was related to speculation in the financial market, not market fundamentals.

The heads of top oil traders and hedge funds that spoke at an industry event this week said that they expected oil prices to strengthen by the end of the year as continued easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China drive up demand in the world's biggest oil importer.

Pierre Andurand, founder of hedge fund Andurand Capital, was the most bullish and forecast a potential Brent oil price of US$140 a barrel by the end of the year.

In its most recent monthly report, OPEC upgraded its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth this year but maintained its projection for global demand growth at 2.32 million bpd.

OPEC Plus is due to hold a virtual meeting of its ministerial committee, which includes Russia and Saudi Arabia, on April 3 before a full ministerial meeting in Vienna on June 04, 2023.

 

Syngenta fourth quarter profit falls

Swiss agrichemicals and seeds group Syngenta on Wednesday reported a 25% drop in fourth quarter earnings due to higher raw materials and energy costs.

Syngenta, which plans to list within the next few months, also spent more on reorganizing its business and set cash aside to cover macro-economic uncertainties such as further raw material spikes or potential bad debts by customers.

The Chinese-owned company said its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) dropped 25% to US$900 million in the three months to the end of December 2022.

Sales rose 4% to US$7.5 billion boosted by strong growth in its seeds business.

"As previously indicated, farmers accelerated their purchases earlier in the year due to supply concerns, moderating fourth quarter growth," the company said.

"The group continued to maintain higher prices necessary to offset elevated raw material and other costs," it added.

During 2022 Syngenta's sales increased 19% to US$33.4 billion while EBITDA rose 20% to US$5.6 billion.

Much of the growth came from China, where the company added 136 more MAP training and sales centers to take its total to 628 sites.

Syngenta, which competes with US entity Corteva and Germany's BASF and Bayer, was bought in 2017 for US$43 billion by ChemChina, which was folded into Sinochem Holdings Corp in 2021.

The parent company plans to keep a majority stake after its US$10 billion flotation, which is expected to value Syngenta at around US$50 billion.