Is Pakistan at the verge of technical default?

This mornings I was alarmed to listen to three rumours: 1) banks are unable to buy foreign exchange for their clients from the inter-bank market, 2) whatever US dollars are still held by the central bank just can’t be used and 3) most probably the PML-N will do, what it did in nineties ‑ freezing of foreign currency accounts of Pakistanis till the time forex starts flowing into Pakistan.

I had brief chat with some of the senior analysts and the conclusion was, “Pakistan is at the verge of technical default”.

The overwhelming consensus was, “It is not because of any weakness of the economy of the country, but due to the inability of the decision makers to make prudent and timely decisions”.

The consensus was, “If the casual attitude of the policy planners is not changed immediately, they will only hasten the default”.

The first and the worst habit of the incumbent government is that it spends more time on blaming the previous government, but does not take into accounts its own acts.

It talks about austerity, but indulges in extravaganzas.

It even fails in listening to what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and friendly countries (also willing to support Pakistan) are saying.

The coalition partners were too keen to control the reigns, but neither had the plans to take the country out of the crisis.

Someone was indecent but may be right, “They wanted to take their names out of Exit Control List (ECL) as well get immunity to rule the country”.

They neither have the will nor the spine to make difficult decisions.

Raising POL prices and electricity tariffs are the easiest decisions because all their expenses are borne by the government.

Their thinking is still not synchronized with what the IMF is saying.

They have not only failed in containing the twin deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit) which is also proliferating the third deficit – confidence deficit.

War in Ukraine could last years, NATO chief

From the very beginning, I have the strongest belief that Russia-Ukraine conflict has been instigated by the United States to weaken one of the largest crude oil producing country. I also have sympathy with the people of Ukraine who have been dragged in this war by offering a ‘lollipop’. NATO/European Union membership. 

While no efforts have been made by United States to solicit ceasefire, tons of ‘outdated’ arsenals have been hurdled into Ukraine. My faith gained further strength after reading one of the statements Head of NATO, “War in Ukraine could last for years’.    

Reportedly, the Head of NATO said on Sunday, the war in Ukraine could last for years, as Russia stepped up its assaults after the European Union recommended that Kyiv become a candidate to join the bloc.

Jens Stoltenberg said supplying state-of-the-art weaponry to Ukrainian troops would boost the chance of freeing its eastern region of Donbas from Russian control, Germany's Bild am Sonntag newspaper reported.

"We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of the military alliance, was quoted as saying.

"Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices."

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who visited Kyiv on Friday, also spoke of a need to prepare for a long war.

This meant ensuring "Ukraine receives weapons, equipment, ammunition and training more rapidly than the invader," Johnson wrote in an opinion piece in London's Sunday Times.

"Time is the vital factor," he wrote. "Everything will depend on whether Ukraine can strengthen its ability to defend its soil faster than Russia can renew its capacity to attack."

Ukraine received a significant boost on Friday when the European Commission recommended it for candidate status, decision EU nations are expected to endorse at a summit this week.

That would put Ukraine on course to realize an aspiration seen as out of reach before Russia's February 24 invasion, even if membership could take years.

The industrial city of Sievierodonetsk, a prime target in Moscow's offensive to seize full control of Luhansk — one of the two provinces making up the Donbas — faced heavy artillery and rocket fire again, the Ukrainian military said.

"Russian forces will likely be able to seize Sievierodonetsk in the coming weeks, but at the cost of concentrating most of their available forces in this small area," analysts at a Washington-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, wrote in a note.

Serhiy Gaidai, the Ukrainian appointed Governor of Luhansk, told Ukrainian television, "All Russian claims that they control the town are a lie. They control the main part of the town, but not the whole town."

In the twin city of Lysychansk across the river, Gaidai said on the Telegram messaging app, residential buildings and private houses had been destroyed, adding, "People are dying on the streets and in bomb shelters."

Ukraine's military acknowledged that "the enemy has partial success in the village of Metolkine," just southeast of Sievierodonetsk.

Russia's state news agency TASS said many Ukrainian fighters had surrendered in Metolkine, citing a source working for Russian-backed separatists.

One of Russian President Vladimir Putin's stated goals in ordering troops into Ukraine was to halt the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance and keep Moscow's southern neighbour outside the West's sphere of influence.

However, the Western media continue to say, the war has killed thousands, reduced cities to rubble and sent millions fleeing. It is having opposite effect — convincing Finland and Sweden to seek to join NATO — and helping to pave the way for Ukraine's EU membership bid.

 

US Ambassador readying people of Bangladesh for an ‘engineered’ election

On June 13, 2022, I had posted a blog titled “United States starts playing regime change mantra in Bangladesh”. I quoted Jamie Raskin, Member of US House of Representatives, urging his colleagues to join him in standing with the people of Bangladesh, especially those bravest and most vulnerable. 

Today, I am quoting what the US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Haas has said lately.

US Ambassador said the sanctions on Rab will not damage the bilateral relationship and that the two countries, which have deep ties, will move on and work together based on shared values of democracy and human rights.

“…A lot of people ask me if I think this will damage our bilateral relations. And I just say, I don’t think it has to,” he said in a talk show titled AmTalk. Video of the event has been uploaded to the Embassy’s Facebook page.

The envoy said there are frictions in the relationship. “And that’s okay when you have a relationship as broad and deep as ours. But what I want to see us do both on Rab and every other aspect is to sit down and to talk about… what do we need to do to resolve this issue.”

Last year, Washington imposed sanctions on Rab and some of its current and former officials.

Haas said his country heard a lot of times how Bangladesh was surprised when the US imposed sanctions.

“And maybe we’re almost surprised they’re surprised, because already in 2018, we stopped providing training to the Rab, because of our concerns on human rights.

For several years, we’ve published in our human rights reports our concerns. We’ve raised it with them in bilateral meetings. And so, while the sanctions may have come as a surprise, the idea that we had concerns should not have.”

The envoy said the US is also not perfect when it comes to democracy but that the striving for democracy must continue.

Referring to Bangladesh, he said there are things that the Bangladeshi people and the government can work on as well and the elections provide a good framing for that, because they’re still more than a year out.

“We don’t favour any particular party, or platform, or anything else … But what we would like to see is what I think all Bangladeshis would like to see, which is an election run at international standards that allow the people of Bangladesh to choose their next leaders in an open, competitive process free of violence and free of coercion.”

Haas said he welcomes some of the signs, some of the signals that they have been receiving.

“Foreign Minister [Abdul] Momen has made it clear that Bangladesh will welcome international observers. And I think that’s critical.

“But the election actually has already started. And so, it’s important to be looking at it all the way from now to make sure that everyone feels safe and secure in their decision on whether or not to participate in any aspect of the upcoming elections,” he added.

 

Israel using gas exports to boost its diplomatic influence

A visit to the Leviathan gas rig off the coast of Haifa illustrates Israel’s opportunity to up its gas game and wield its diplomatic power across the globe. The gas rig is actually quite big.

With three main levels and pipes that seem to go on forever – leaving one wonder how someone figured out how to connect them all.

Leviathan is the largest gas rig in Israeli waters that receives gas from the country’s largest gas reservoir located well over 100 km away. The gas flows through the rig where it is cleaned and then propelled directly to Israel where it immediately powers the country.

Russian invasion of Ukraine has opened what some in the industry call “historic opportunities” for the Jewish state to up its energy game and, in return, increase its diplomatic value and standing in the Middle East and beyond.

The illustrations are bountiful, but two are important: In March, President Isaac Herzog flew to Turkey and met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu visited Jerusalem for talks with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.

Ankara is heavily reliant on Russia for energy – including 45% of its natural gas and 17% of its oil. Reconciliation with Israel and improving relations is the key for Turkey to be able to potentially diversify its suppliers and cut back its dependence on Russia.

The second example was the flip-flop that Israeli Energy Minister Karin Elharrar did on May 30 when she announced that her ministry would be issuing licenses for new exploration of natural gas in Israeli waters. It was a sharp turn from what the Yesh Atid had announced just six months earlier in December 2021.

Elharrar said, “In the coming year we will focus on the future, on green energy, on energy optimization and on renewable energy, and while we do so we will put aside the development of natural gas, which, as is known, is a short-term solution.”

By May 30, Elharrar was singing a different mantra, “The global energy crisis provides an opportunity for Israel to export natural gas, along with the honest and real concern for what is going on in Europe.”

A global energy crisis and the recognition that Israel can play a role in resolving it and at the same time improving its international standing, makes the big difference.

“The world changed and we cannot ignore it,” said Energy Ministry Director General Lior Schillat. “There is a rise in the demand for gas especially in Europe since the Russia situation and they need a steady supply and the minister did a reassessment in the middle of the year instead of at the end of the year since we think it is possible to increase the supply.”

Oded Eran, Israel’s former Ambassador to the European Union, said that the developments in Europe are a historic opportunity for Israel and the energy minister’s policy reversal needs to be looked at through that prism. On the one hand, Eran explained, was the populist-driven decision last December to stop exploration which had wanted to put Israel on track with the climate change camp while ignoring the economic and diplomatic opportunities that gas provides the country.

Until now, Eran added, Israel was not viewed as an international energy player but just as a regional one. “But now with the war in Ukraine, you can see that Israel is not unimportant,” he said.

As an example, Eran referred to US President Joe Biden’s promise in March to transfer 15 billion cubic meters (BCM) of liquefied natural gas to Europe by the end of 2022 to help with the shortfall caused by the war in Ukraine. Israel, he said, already exports about 10 BCM of natural gas to Jordan and Egypt.

“This is not far from the amount that Biden promised Europe,” he said.

Rising Indian purchases of Russian coal and crude oil

According to a Reuters report, Indian purchases of Russian coal have spiked in recent weeks despite global sanctions on Moscow, as traders offer discounts of up to 30%.

Russia, facing severe Western sanctions, had warned the European Union in April against sweeping sanctions on coal, saying they would backfire as the fuel would be redirected to other markets.

India has refrained from condemning Russia, with which it has longstanding political and security ties, but urged an end to violence in Ukraine. New Delhi defends its purchases of Russian goods as part of an effort to diversify supplies and argues a sudden halt would jack up prices and hurt its consumers.

The US officials had told India there was no ban on energy imports from Russia but they (US administration) do not want to see a rapid escalation in imports from Russia.

As European importers shun trade with Moscow, Indian buyers are mopping up huge quantities of Russian coal despite high freight costs.

Its purchases of coal and related products jumped more than six-fold to US$331.17 million in the recent 20 days from the same period a year earlier, according to unpublished Indian government data reviewed by Reuters.

Similarly, Indian refiners have snapped up cheap Russian oil shunned by Western countries. The value of India's oil trade with Russia during the period under review jumped more than 31-fold to US$2.22 billion, the data showed.

"The Russian traders have been liberal with payment routes and are accepting payments in Indian rupee and United Arab Emirates dirham," one source said. "The discounts are attractive, and this trend of higher Russian coal purchases will continue."

Offshore units of such Russian coal traders as Suek AG, KTK and Cyprus-based Carbo One in places including Dubai and Singapore offered discounts of 25% to 30%, triggering bulk purchases of Russian thermal coal by traders supplying to utilities and cement makers, the sources said.

Another source said the Singapore-based unit of Suek was also accepting payments in dollars.

Suek and KTK did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not immediately reach Carbo One.

The EU ban has barred new coal contracts and by mid-August will force the member nations to terminate existing ones.

India bought an average US$16.55 million of Russian coal a day, more than double the US$7.71 million it bought in the three months after Russian invasion on Ukraine on February 24, this year, according to Reuters calculations.

Oil purchases averaged US$110.86 million a day in the 20-day period, more than triple the US$31.16 million it spent in the three months ended May 26, 2022.

Indian bulk buying of Russian coal is set to continue, with June imports expected to be the most in at least seven and a half years, Refinitiv Eikon ship tracking data showed.

Bulk shipments of Russian thermal coal started reaching India in the third week of May, with orders mainly from cement and steel firms and traders, according to shipping data compiled by an Indian coal trader.

 

Pakistan should forget buying Russian oil for the time being

I am an ardent supporter of buying Russian oil being sold at huge discount. However, on the second thought, without mincing my words, I would say Pakistan should forget buying Russian oil for the time being. The country must solicit better terms and conditions from countries currently meeting Pakistan’s requirements.

First and the foremost, Pakistani refineries are not tuned to refine Russian oil. Even if Pakistan decides to buy Russian oil, the prerequisite is making these refineries capable of refining Russian oil. At this juncture, Pakistan neither has the foreign exchange nor the time to re-tune the refineries.

Second making payment to Russian suppliers is a stumbling block. Even those European countries, heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas, are being pressurized by United States to gradually curtail their purchases of energy products from Russia. The payment process is also being made difficult. On top of all, Pakistan also does not have ample rubles.

Third, Pakistan already enjoys deferred payment facility from Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is also willing to give more foreign exchange, but it would certainly not approve taking money from it and buying oil from Russia.

Pakistan can also increase purchase of motor gasoline and diesel purchase from these two brotherly countries to avoid any retuning of the refineries in Pakistan.

UAE is already a joint venture partner in Pakistan’s largest refinery, Pak-Arab Refinery (PARCO) located at Mahmood Kot near Multan and black and white oil pipelines in Pakistan.

Forth, the sailing time from Saudi Arabia/United Arab Emirates to Pakistan is certainly shorter as compared to any of the Russian ports. Therefore, the benefit of discounted price would be eroded to a significant extent by higher freight cost.

Along with buying crude oil and POL products from Saudi Arabia and UAE, Pakistan should also negotiate with Qatar to sell LNG at concessional price that too at a deferred payment.

On the diplomatic front Pakistan should also convince United States to let the country buy LNG from Iran. The argument is simple, “If India being a member of QUAD can buy oil from Russia despite sanctions; Pakistan should also be allowed to buy gas from Iran”.     

As such the negotiations regarding ‘Iran Nuclear Deal’ has been dragged for too long. If United States is willing to allow Venezuela to export oil, sanctions on Iran should also be withdrawn immediately to save the world from crude oil and energy products becoming too expensive.

This is also to remind the policy makers that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has already assured Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari the willingness of his country to meet Pakistan’s demand of oil, gas and electricity.

Iran can fulfill Pakistan’s energy needs, says President Raisi

According to Tasnim News Agency, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi expressed the country’s readiness to satisfy Pakistan’s demand for oil, gas and electricity. In a meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, held in Tehran, Raisi hailed the close ties between the two neighbors, saying the people of Iran and Pakistan are like relatives.

“We consider Pakistan’s security to be our own security,” he said, adding, “Some do not like the good relations between the two Muslim, neighboring, friendly and brotherly nations, but the development of relations leads to economic prosperity and more security for the nations of the region.”

There are no restrictions in Tehran for the development of relations with Islamabad, Raisi noted, saying, “We are ready to promote comprehensive cooperation with Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran has the necessary capacity to meet Pakistan’s needs in various fields, including oil, gas and electricity.”

The Iranian president called the fields of energy, transit and cooperation and coordination in the regional issues and crises as important aspects of relations between the two countries, his official website reported.

For his part, Bilawal expressed satisfaction with the visit to Iran, adding, “As much as I am a child of Pakistan, I am also a child of Iran.”

Thanking Iran for exporting electricity to Pakistan, the Foreign Minister said, “We are fully prepared to complete and conclude the previous talks in the fields of security, trade and energy.”

Pakistani Foreign Minister also praised the government of Iran for its assistance in extinguishing the widespread wildfires in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province.