Why Biden is visiting Saudi Arabia remains a mystery?

Despite Israeli media reports that US President Joe Biden’s planned visit to Israel and the Middle East had been rescheduled to July 14, there has been no confirmation from Washington. 

Biden didn’t mention Israel but said that he hasn’t decided yet if he’ll travel to Saudi Arabia next month. 

Speaking to reporters before Air Force One departed from Los Angeles, Biden also addressed a question about whether there are commitments he is waiting for from the Saudis or about negotiations on peace talks, before announcing his trip.

“No,” said Biden. “The commitments from the Saudis don’t relate to anything having to do with energy. It happens to be a larger meeting taking place in Saudi Arabia. That’s the reason I’m going. And it has to do with national security for them – for Israelis,” he continued. “It has to do with much larger issues than having to do with the energy prices.”

What will he try to achieve in this visit?

The United States is in a years-long process of downsizing its involvement in the Middle East, said Natan Sachs, Director of the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings.

“It still has a large military presence and still expends resources on the region, but it is looking to partner more extensively with countries in the region on security matters. This trip would be part of that effort, with the Biden administration visibly joining in an Arab-Israeli partnership for defense, especially against Iranian and Iranian-backed unmanned platforms,” he said. “It’s a significant shift in the Biden posture and another sign of a dramatically different Middle East.”

Michael Koplow, Chief Policy Officer at the Israel Policy Forum, said Biden’s visit is about US-Saudi ties first and foremost, “and I don’t expect any big American initiatives with respect to Israel or to Israeli-Palestinian issues.”

“He is trying to avoid the mistake that President Obama made in skipping Israel on his first visit to the region, and thus the Israel component seems to me more of a box-checking exercise,” Koplow said.

“The reference to Israeli security is likely about the Saudi-Egyptian agreement on transferring the islands of Tiran and Sanafir from Egypt to Saudi Arabia, which requires Israeli approval, and is viewed as another step toward Israeli-Saudi normalization and toward a broader regional security architecture in which Israel is integrated. Assuming that the JCPOA is not resurrected – increasingly the likely scenario – the US wants greater agreement and cooperation on dealing with Iran going forward, and this is a piece of that puzzle.”

Mark Dubowitz, Chief Executive at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, said that Biden should be trying to achieve closer coordination with Israel on a pressure campaign against Iran, expanding efforts toward greater Saudi-Israeli normalization, “and sending a clear message to the Palestinian leadership that they can be part of the expanding process of normalization or it will pass them by.”

“The major obstacle to Saudi-Israeli normalization is in Washington not in Riyadh or Jerusalem,” Dubowitz said. 

“Biden has the opportunity to repair the damage in the US-Saudi relationship and to lay out a plan for greater regional military and intelligence integration against Iran and greater political and commercial integration between Israel and the Arab world. He has the opportunity to be remembered as the president who brought the most important Muslim country into the Abraham Accords.”

According to reports in Israeli media, Biden’s visit is expected to also include a visit to east Jerusalem. The plans follow Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf’s visit to Israel and the West Bank, and as the State Department signaled on Twitter that it upgraded its Jerusalem office to the Palestinians, and changed its name to the “US Office of Palestinian Affairs in Jerusalem.”

“The separation of the Palestinian unit from the embassy is a partial step, well short of reopening the consulate general in Jerusalem, which Biden and Blinken both promised the Palestinians,” said Sachs.

“It’s a measure meant to blunt some of the worst criticism from the Left about going forward with the regional rapprochement without any major push on the Palestinian front.”

According to Koplow, “Biden wants to signal that he is continuing to repair relations with the Palestinians despite US moves falling short of Palestinian expectations.

“The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is still relatively low on his list of priorities, and that is unlikely to change in the near future, but Biden wants to demonstrate that he is not ignoring Palestinian concerns and is taking a different tack than president Trump did,” he said. “It’s more about the optics of a new US approach than it is about a big substantive shift or a shift in priorities.”

Dubowitz said that Biden should “avoid walking into the same trap on the Palestinian issue, which normally entails State Department efforts like the recent changes to its Jerusalem office to reward the Palestinian leadership without making reciprocal demands or holding them accountable.”

“Biden should be telling Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, “You can join normalization efforts and lead your people into greater prosperity and security or you can continue to obstruct, incite and deflect,” said Dubowitz. “That will guarantee only more misery and violence, the collapse of the PA and the rise of Hamas on the West Bank.”

Understanding significance of TRACECA

Established in May 1993 in Brussels, Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia (TRACECA) is an international transport program involving the European Union and 12 member states of the Eastern European, Caucasus, and Central Asian region. 

The program aims at strengthen economic relations, trade, and transport in the regions of the Black Sea basin, South Caucasus and Central Asia.

At the conference, it was agreed to implement a program of a European Union funded technical assistance to develop a transport corridor on a west-east axis from Europe, across the Black Sea, through the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea to Central Asia.

TRACECA members include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Romania, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. All are signatories to the multilateral agreement, and only Turkmenistan has yet to ratify the agreement.

According to the portal of Iran’s Transport and Urban Development Ministry, the country is eying expansion of TRACECA. The issue was brought up during a meeting between Head of Iran Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization (RMTO) Dariush Amani and TRACECA Secretary General Asset Assavbayev.

According to Amani, the meeting focused on the development of international road transport cooperation with TRACECA member countries and increasing the volume of transit through this corridor.

Amani noted that following the policies of the government, RMTO is implementing new strategies to actively and effectively participate in international forums, regional treaties and join international conventions on transportation.

Various steps have been taken in this regard, including joining the transport of perishable goods (ATP) and the International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Road (ADR) treaties, participating in the electronic version of the International Carriage of Goods by Road (e-CMR) convention, as well as the successful implementation of the project (E-TIR), the official said.

Amani stated that there are great areas for cooperation between the member states of the TRACECA agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and added, “We are therefore interested in making the best use of the various projects and courses offered or held each year under the framework of the said agreement at the secretariat or in other member states.”

The RMTO head has also called on the Assavbayev to take the necessary measures to eliminate or reduce significant tariff barriers and unconventional tolls imposed by some TRACECA member countries on the international road fleet crossing those countries in order to realize the goals envisioned for the corridor.

According to Amani, during the meeting Assavbayev stated that the Islamic Republic of Iran is an active member of TRACECA and the main link between Central Asia and Europe.

“The main purpose of these talks is to develop cooperation and implement TRACECA programs through the Islamic Republic of Iran; In this regard, the main concern is to reduce transportation costs and increase cross-border traffic in order to optimize trade activities,” he said.

United States starts playing regime change mantra in Bangladesh

Jamie Raskin, Member of US House of Representatives, has urged his colleagues to join him in standing with the people of Bangladesh, especially those bravest and most vulnerable. He also urged the Bangladesh government to take immediate action to respect the civil rights and safety of all the people of Bangladesh.

Democratic Party member Jamie Raskin made the call in a session of the US congress on June 07, 2022. His statement has been taken from the congressional record published in the US congress website.

Jamie Raskin is a member of Democratic Party and elected from Maryland. He is also a member of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission.

Earlier, on December 10, 2021, the Human Rights Day, the US imposed sanctions on Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and its current and former seven officials on charges of violating human rights.

Before that, in August 2021, a discussion of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission expressed concerns on the situation of forced disappearances in Bangladesh.

On June 07, 2022 while speaking in a session presided over by House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi, Jamie Raskin said, “I rise today in solidarity with the people of Bangladesh. I want to voice my support for human rights defenders, members of minority groups, and civil society in Bangladesh at this moment when the Bangladeshi government is persisting in threatening the basic human rights and civil liberties of its people.”

He also said the Bangladeshi government, led by Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League, has earned widespread criticism for its deteriorating human rights record, and for its failure to protect the most vulnerable people living in Bangladesh – indigenous people, women, religious minorities, activists, and refugees.

On International Human Rights Day last year, the US Department of the Treasury announced sanctions on the Rapid Action Battalion, citing how their actions undermine the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms.

The United Nations reported that since the sanctions against the RAB officials were announced in December, the Bangladesh government has responded by launching a retaliatory campaign of intimidation and harassment.

The homes of at least 10 relatives of people forcibly disappeared are reported to have been raided at night, and some relatives were forced to sign statements saying that their loved ones had not in fact been forcibly disappeared.

US Congress member further said Amnesty International tracks human rights abuses in Bangladesh and has noted their acceleration during the pandemic. Under the draconian Digital Security Act of 2018, Bangladeshi journalists and other human rights defenders are routinely persecuted for reporting on corruption or criticizing any of the government’s policies.

He also said Covid-19 policies against public gatherings have been used to prevent political meetings, and to quell public protests against the government. Violence against women and indigenous activists has also intensified during the pandemic.

The Bangladeshi government employs a joint task force composed of members of police, military, and border guards called the Rapid Action Battalion, and it has consistently failed to address the excesses of these and other security forces.

The Rapid Action Battalion and other Bangladeshi law enforcement entities are alleged to be responsible for more than 600 disappearances since 2009 and nearly 600 extrajudicial killings since 2018. These incidents reportedly target opposition party members, journalists, and human rights activists.

 

Pakistan: Federal Budget Hoping Against Hope

Certainly concerted efforts have been made to mend relationship with International Monetary Fund (IMF) while preparing Federal Budget for the next financial year.  Intentions may be good but a lot will depend on the commitment and plans to meet the targets. 

Keeping in view the fragile nature of the coalition government, diversity in the mind set of party leaders and high commodity prices, there is many a slip between the cup and the lip.

The Government of Pakistan, in Federal Budget FY23 has set a GDP growth target at 5% and inflation at 11.5%. Many analysts say that the GoP will have to make extra efforts to achieve these targets, mainly because the central bank has already raised policy rate by 675bps another 100bps is anticipated in the name of tightening of monetary and fiscal policies.

Inflation target will also likely be missed as global commodity prices are likely to remain on upward trajectory. The inflation and Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) collection target are at odds. The PDL collection target has been set at Rs750 billion for FY23. There is hardly a realization that higher PDL collection will result in CPI outages, conversely efforts to contain CPI may result in shortfall in PDL collection.

Other than the aggressive PDL collection targets, which will likely be missed, the GoP has done well to protect masses from further inflationary pressures. Personal income taxes have also been relaxed which will improve purchasing power of the masses and help in face saving of the coalition government.

The tax collection target is a slightly lower than Rs7.3 trillion which was initially being reported in the press, but still represents a 17%YoY jump from estimated collections in FY22. Efforts have been made to make taxation more equitable, with new revenue measures targeting large landowners and the big corporates and retailers. However, little effort has been made to bring agriculture sector in the tax net.

The budget projects a uniform increase in all major taxation heads, including direct taxation, sales taxes, custom duties and FED but the most notable increase comes from the projected Rs750 billion collection of PDL. Given the soaring crude oil prices in international market, analysts see a likely shortfall in collection under this head which will need to be compensated elsewhere.

Similarly, target of GIDC for FY23 is set at Rs200 billion which is also less likely to be achieved. It may be recalled that the GoP had collected a paltry amount of Rs14 billion under this head during 9MFY22. Out of the incremental tax collection targeted for FY23, the new tax measures are estimated to bring in up to Rs375 billion whereas the remaining amount will be generated through growth in Nominal GDP.

The total outlay envisaged in the budget FY23 is Rs9.5 trillion; out of which current expenditures are targeted at Rs8.7 trillion, while the development expenditures are estimated at Rs808 billion. Of that, the Interest payments are estimated at Rs3.95 trillion, up 29%YoY. This constitutes a whopping 45% of current expenses and 42% of the overall expenses.

The defense expenditures are estimated at Rs1.5 trillion – up 11%YoY, which constitutes 18% of current expenses and 16% of overall expenditures.

Federal Pension expense is estimated at Rs530 billion - up 0.7% YoY as against revised estimates of Rs525 billion for FY22. Furthermore, government plans to setup a pension fund which is likely to fund pension expenditures going forward.

Subsidy disbursements are slated to shrink to Rs699 billion for FY23 from Rs1.5 trillion for FY22. To recall, GoP announced a generous package of subsidies on the consumption of fuel and electricity during 2HFY22 which resulted in the slippages under this head.

Analysts expect the total debt servicing cost to exceed the budgeted target of Rs3.1 trillion as the budget document estimates hefty contribution from external sources for budgetary funding. They expect heavier reliance on local sources for budgetary borrowings where the cost of debt will be higher, thus pushing the overall debt financing number even higher.

This article was first published in Eurasia Review

United States the biggest beneficiary of Russia-Ukraine conflict

The ongoing energy disruptions in the wake of the hostilities in the Ukraine have had a dramatic impact on export of LNG from the United States.

In the newly released edition of the Natural Gas Monthly, published by the Energy Information Agency (EIA), part of the US Department of Energy, the changing dynamics of the US export trades are described in detail.

In the publication, the EIA notes, “During the first four months of 2022, the United States exported 74% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, as compared to an average of 34% a year ago.”  It adds, “In 2020 and 2021, Asia had been the main destination for US LNG exports, accounting for almost half of the total exports.” Overall, US LNG exports saw an 18% increase as compared to 2021.

Exports have averaged 11.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the first four months of 2022, aided by the opening of new export facilities. The increase in US LNG exports was driven by additional export capacity at Sabine Pass (Train 6) and at nearby Calcasieu Pass, with a facility that came online in early March. The Sabine Pass terminal loaded nearly 110 LNG cargoes during Q1 2022. Venture Global’s Calcasieu terminal, Louisiana began exporting in March, when five cargoes were loaded - four to Europe and one to Japan.  

The move towards European destinations had already begun before the late February invasion of Ukraine, with the huge inventory drawdowns underway in advance of the winter season. The EIA said, “The United States became the largest LNG supplier to the European Union and the United Kingdom in 2021. They said that LNG imports from the United States to the EU and the UK more than tripled during January to April, 2022, as compared to 2021, averaging 7.3 Bcf/d.”

The EIA pointed out, “During the first four months of 2022, US LNG exports to Asia declined by 51% to 2.3 Bcf/d as compared to 4.6 Bcf/d in 2021.”

Its analysts also alluded to a drop-off in moves to China due to the extremely high Asian LNG prices and pandemic-related lockdowns. China received only six LNG cargoes from the United States in January–April 2022 or just 0.2 Bcf/d as compared to 1.2 Bcf/d in 2021. Japan and South Korea also saw declines.

Another blow to coalition government in Israel

The gyrations of Israel’s coalition government, which still hopes to survive to its first anniversary on June 13, only make sense in its unique context. On Monday, June 6 it lost an important vote, in which more than half of the Knesset members on both sides voted against their own most fundamental beliefs.

It can be termed a desperate effort to either bring down the coalition or to save it. The substance of the legislation was barely more than a pretext, but the opposition smelled blood and was willing to do virtually anything to regain power.

The legislation at issue was a routine bill to maintain Israel’s jurisdiction over the West Bank for another five years, in order to ensure that the half-million Israelis who live there are treated as if they live within the “Green Line,” Israel’s pre-1967 borders. Though, much of the Knesset — including Prime Minister Naftali Bennett — would very much like to permanently annex part or all of the West Bank that is not on the agenda for this government. The bedrock principle is to maintain the status quo with regard to the West Bank and the Palestinians. A fundamental aspect of this policy is the perpetuation of a military regime for West Bank Palestinians and an ordinary life for Israelis living there — and thus the legislation extending it for five more years has always passed with ease.

It’s not that the majority of the MKs disagreed with the legislation. Probably between 80 and 100 of them would have supported it in a free vote, out of the total of 120. However, politics in Israel are now decisively split between supporters and opponents of former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which takes precedence even over the left-right divide.

That is the only reason why the current government, unprecedentedly, contains far and mainstream rightists, centrists, leftists, and an Arab party, many of whom would be politically more comfortable with the opposition were it not for the divisive figure of Netanyahu, whose Likud Party and its allies, with a total of 60 members in the evenly divided Knesset, are determined to prove the country ungovernable under the current coalition. The chaos that would theoretically ensue if this legislation isn’t passed, even though they themselves are unashamedly holding it up, is, for them, a perfect example of the government’s inability to accomplish anything.

In fact, it is unlikely that Israeli settlers would spend even one day under the military regime that governs their Palestinian neighbors. They are an important enough constituency that a workaround will probably be found, one way or another. But the process would be chaotic enough that the government’s image, already tarnished, would suffer another heavy blow.

It is not only the right, however, that voted against its basic values. Even more distressed was the left-wing minority in the coalition from the Meretz and Labor parties, whose main political banner is fighting against the occupation. They are ardently against privileges for the settlers, yet cold calculation tells them that anything outside of this coalition would be much worse for them and their values — so they gritted their teeth and voted with the coalition.

There was one exception, Meretz MK Ghaida Rinawi Zoabi, who last month had bolted the coalition but returned after three days, and who voted “no” this time, against the coalition. Meretz MKs know that their constituency wants them to maintain the government as long as possible, but their voters are also asking themselves what the point of voting for a left-wing party is, when it is stuck in a coalition sworn to uphold the occupation. At least some might well switch to the majority-Arab Joint List, which refused to join the coalition, and thus voted against the bill with an absolutely clear conscience.

Perhaps the only more anguished group were the four MKs of the Arab and Islamist United Arab List, known by its Hebrew acronym, Ra’am, which, unprecedentedly for an Arab party, is part of the governing coalition. Three of them absented themselves and the fourth, like Zoabi, voted no. The final vote, including some genuine illnesses, was 52 for the bill and 58 against.

As noted, it is unlikely that this will change things at all for the settlers. Nor was it designated a vote of confidence, by which a loss might have brought down the government. But things can’t go on like this. The coalition was formed last year with 61 votes, but a right-wing MK from the PM’s own party defected in April, leaving the opposition unable to bring the government down, but the coalition unable to govern. Both blocs are desperately trying to encourage more defections — with no success so far. The general assumption is that there may have to be new elections by the end of the year, coming on the heels of four successive elections in less than two years, the first three of which were unable to produce a functional government

Of course that may not settle anything. Recent polls indicate that the country continues to tilt heavily toward the right, but that in a new election the current balance of pro- and anti-Netanyahu seats in the Knesset may well remain the same. Netanyahu’s ongoing trial for fraud and breach of trust is expected to last for at least another year, and he maintains his political power.

Were Netanyahu to disappear from the scene, a government of the mainstream right would almost certainly emerge, perhaps also including some of the “centrists” who dominate this one.

But the former PM is a vigorous 72 and no one is counting him out yet. So, paradoxically, though Netanyahu is loathed by the political left and the center, it is solely his continued presence in politics and his insistence on leading the Likud that has enabled their presence in the current government, unwieldy as it is, and their ability, such as it is, to block possible annexation of the West Bank, among other rightist policies.

 

Iran likely to turn off all cameras beyond Safeguards agreement

Chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) announced on Thursday night that Iran has turned off a number of IAEA cameras which were monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities beyond the Safeguards agreement and plans to turn off the rest soon.

“We ended the activities of a number of these cameras and we will do the rest tonight and tomorrow,” Mohammad Eslami told the national TV.

The cameras that have been removed or are being removed were installed voluntarily. Their activity fell outside the scope of the Safeguards agreement of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran embarked on removing such cameras in response to a resolution by the IAEA Board of Governors against Iran late on Wednesday.

The resolution, proposed by the United States and the European trio ‑ Germany, France and Britain ‑  was approved by the IAEA’s 35-nation board with 30 votes in favor, two against and three abstentions. Russia and China voted against the resolution and India, Libya and Pakistan abstained.

The resolution was drafted on the basis of a report by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in which it was claimed Iran had refused to provide answers to traces of uranium enrichment found at three undeclared sites. This is while Iran had provided answers to the IAEA about these alleged sites, which finally led to the conclusion of the 2015 nuclear agreement, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Questions about the alleged nuclear sites, which were referred to as possible military dimensions (PMD), were answered and the issue closed.

“You closed all these allegations and charges within the PMD…. And now you have come and say you want to return to the JCPOA. Okay, return to the JCPOA but why do you reopen the closed package which form the essence of the JCPOA?” Eslami asked.

Prior to the debate on Iran’s nuclear program at the IAEA board, Grossi had visited Tel Aviv for talks with Israeli officials, a move which put in serious question Grossi’s neutrality and professionalism by the Agency under his leadership.

Eslami went on to say that the IAEA, based on its articles 2 and 3, is tasked to transfer nuclear technology to NPT signatories for civilian uses but the reality is that the IAEA is “a pawn of the Zionists”.

It is widely believed that these alleged nuclear sites have been raised by Israel through bogus documents.

“It is regretful that an international institution is exploited in such a way by a fake regime and puts its credibility in question,” the AEOI chief lamented.

Israel, which has been launching an intensive campaign against Iran’s nuclear program for about two decades, has not signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has about 90 nuclear weapons. It also played a key role in provoking the Trump administration to quit the JCPOA, which was the product of 12 years of negotiations.

The nuclear chief went on to say that all the commitments made by Iran under the JCPOA was beyond the Safeguards agreement and were chiefly intended to create confidence about Tehran’s nuclear activities.

“Why has the Islamic Republic accepted to limit itself and be under more intensive surveillance and control by the Agency for a rather long term? It was just because it wanted to get rid of these accusations and build trust,” he explained.

However, Eslami added, this good intention which was shown in the negotiations and the JCPOA is not being considered at all by the IAEA, including its Director Grossi.

There is no will by Grossi to become convinced of Iran’s answers and this shows that he is a hostage to Israelis and that he has adopted a political behavior toward Iran.