Afghanistan to be next proxy war ground

The invasion of Ukraine has essentially consolidated US-Russia antagonism, while upending the post-Cold-War security order in Europe. It has also initiated the militaristic rationale of the Cold War without providing the two ideological alternatives of organizing politics, economies and societies that characterized that period.

It is critical to recognize that the Cold War’s proxy wars, or hot wars, will play out mercilessly and more viciously in conflict-prone regions of the Global South, while the North will use all means to extinguish these wars from its soil or try to turn them into frozen conflicts or prolonged asymmetric insurgencies.

In Asia, it is important that nations such as India, China, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and even Israel retain their balancing act and non-alignment posture and do not succumb to pressure from the West or Russia to choose sides.

The recent rapprochement of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan towards Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin while avoiding US President Joe Biden; and Israel’s efforts to reach out to all sides, including Moscow, Berlin and Washington, all indicate diplomatic efforts to find a solution to this conflict but, more importantly, to avoid being sucked into a war that is being imposed on them.

This cooperation and diplomatic effort demonstrated by West Asian nations is also desperately needed between Beijing, New Delhi, Tehran and Islamabad.

Analysts have already pointed to the US-Russia rivalry in the Middle East as Russia’s military-to-military links with authoritarian regimes of the region – including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Iran, and even Israel – have provided Moscow with legitimate leverage to threaten US security interests and project power into southern Europe.

While the invasion of Ukraine strengthened the Western alliance militarily and economically, prompted German rearmament and pushed neutral European states to consider joining NATO, it is critical that Asian powers take steps to prevent both Russian and Western incursions into their weaker and conflict-prone neighborhoods, for themselves and their neighbours.

While most media outlets and analysts remain focused on places with traditional military presence and face-offs, US-Russian and even US-Chinese proxy wars will resume in another critical geostrategic region i.e. Central Asia.

Afghanistan’s geostrategic importance and conflict-prone environment will once again serve as the starting point for a superpower proxy war, allowing the US to open new fronts against its arch rivals Russia and China.

A member of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies stands among the food rations to be distributed to drought-hit farmers, in Sang-e-Atash, Afghanistan, on December 13, 2021. Severe drought has worsened the already desperate situation in the country, forcing thousands to flee their homes and live in extreme poverty.

The number and nature of opportunistic Islamist terrorist organizations and spoiler groups in and around Afghanistan provide an ideal breeding ground for further destabilization of the entire region, including Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan.

This time, the West will aim to expand the threat of Islamic terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, actually destabilizing Russia’s underbelly, stretching its forces and resources while Moscow grapples with harsh sanctions.

At the same time, the threat emerging from Afghanistan and the mountainous regions of Central Asia will destabilize China’s restive Western border, adding to Beijing’s already-heightened domestic security concerns. Washington will literally hit two or more birds with one stone at the very low cost of financing and arming Islamist groups.

This is not to say that Washington had this intention all along. Under the Donald Trump and Joe Biden administrations, Washington has made it clear that Islamic terrorism was no longer the perceived threat to US national security it had once been, and this was replaced by Russia, but more importantly, China.

The US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan should also be viewed in the light of Washington’s shifting strategic priorities. The war in Ukraine changed all that.

Afghans protest Biden’s order to reallocate unfrozen Afghan funds

It is noteworthy that the Taliban, unlike its pro-Western predecessor, now prioritizes China and Russia.

It has disarmed and weakened, for the time being, the Uygur-linked East Turkestan Islamic Movement terrorist organization based in Afghanistan. It is pursuing the Afghan chapter of Islamic State, Islamic State of Khorasan Province, to reassure Russia and the Central Asian Republics that it poses no threat to them, among other reasons. It is using water politics to persuade Iran to recognize it.

Despite all these efforts, Taliban are still waiting for some tangible support from these countries to help it consolidate its position in Afghanistan.

It would not be surprising if the Taliban turned against these countries or simply turned a blind eye, allowing terrorist groups to use Afghan soil as a launch pad for activities against Russia or China and beyond in exchange for desperately needed US financial backing.

Though the emergence of organized armed resistance against the Taliban have already started in small pockets across Afghanistan – and are often legitimate uprisings against an oppressive regime – unfortunately and realistically, whatever emerges from the region now will have to serve the proxy interests of the US and Russia before serving Afghan nationalist or resistance aspirations.

The Afghan people, like Ukrainians, now have to choose between bad and worse. By going their own way and taking care of their weak neighbours, Asian powers of the Global South can help prevent the worse option and the spread of yet another hot Cold War in Asia.

 

Britain fails in securing addition oil from Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson held talks about energy security with the de facto leaders of Gulf oil exporters Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but failed in securing additional crude oil.

Johnson's trip to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh was aimed at securing oil supplies and raising pressure on President Vladimir Putin over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which led to sweeping Western sanctions on Moscow and soaring world energy prices.

Johnson's office said that in his meeting with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, he stressed the need to work together to stabilize global energy markets.

After his talks in Riyadh with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Johnson was asked whether the kingdom would increase oil production.

"I think you'd need to talk to the Saudis about that. But I think there was an understanding of the need to ensure stability in global oil markets and gas markets," he said.

So far Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose close ties with Washington are under strain, have snubbed US pleas to ramp up oil production to tame the rise in crude prices that threatens global recession after the Russian offensive in Ukraine.

"The world must wean itself off Russian hydrocarbons and starve Putin's addiction to oil and gas," Johnson said before his meetings. "Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are key international partners in that effort."

The two Gulf states are among the few OPEC oil exporters with spare oil capacity to raise output and potentially offset supply losses from Russia. But they have tried to steer a neutral stance between Western allies and Moscow, their partner in an oil producers' grouping known as OPEC+.

The group has been raising output gradually each month by 400,000 barrels a day, resisting pressure to act more quickly.

The UAE remains committed to the OPEC+ deal, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters before the meeting.

It has deepened ties with Moscow and Beijing in the last few years and abstained last month in a US-drafted United Nations Security Council resolution to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, which Russia has described as a "special military operation".

Johnson "set out his deep concerns about the chaos unleashed by Russia’s unprovoked invasion, and stressed the importance of working together to improve stability in the global energy market", his office said after his talks in Abu Dhabi.

Johnson and the crown prince also agreed on the need to bolster security, defence and intelligence cooperation to counter threats including from Houthi forces that have fought a lengthy conflict in Yemen against Saudi and UAE forces.

Johnson is only the second major Western leader to visit Saudi Arabia since journalist Jamal Khashoggi's 2018 killing by Saudi government agents in Istanbul.

The CIA concluded that the prince approved an operation to capture or kill Khashoggi. He has denied any involvement in the killing.

The Prime Minister's trip also came just four days after Saudi Arabia executed 81 men, the largest number in a single day for decades, for offences ranging from joining militant groups to holding deviant beliefs.

Asked about criticism of Saudi Arabia's human rights record, Johnson said: "I've raised all those issues many, many times over the past ... and I'll raise them all again.

"But we have long, long standing relationships with this part of the world and we need to recognize the very important relationship that we have ... and not just in hydrocarbons."

Saudi press agency SPA said Johnson and Prince Mohammed discussed the conflict in Ukraine and international issues, adding that Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a strategic partnership.

 

Destabilizing Pakistan

Due to my other engagements and also dislike of the attitude of Pakistani politicians, I was not paying much attention to ‘No Confidence Move against Imran Khan’. However, I was completely dismayed and disturbed after looking at this picture placed at LinkedIn. 

One does not need to read or listen to any other narrative. It is evident that the efforts are aimed at derailing the upcoming OIC Summit being held in Pakistan.

I was lucky to also receive a list with the names of politicians and the amounts paid to them, circulating at social media. If I add up the amounts, it is enormous. I have a gut feeling that the amounts of this magnitude just cannot be paid by any of the leading political parties of Pakistan.

The natural conclusion is that the amount has come from outside Pakistan. I leave it at the readers to try to identify those who are behind the disbursement of these amounts. For their convenience I have picked a pointers.

The amount has come from those who don’t wish Pakistan to prosper.Their biggest apprehension is if Imran Khan remains in power ‘Pakistan can become a regional super power’ and play a role in ‘demolishing the hegemony of some of the regional and global super powers’.

The history shows that most of the promoters of the OIC Conference held in Pakistan during the regime of Zulficar Ali Bhutto were assassinated; the first casualty was King Faisal of Saudi Arabia. Formation and strengthening of OIC was the brainchild of King Faisal and Bhutto was one of the ardent promoters of ‘Unity of Muslim Ummah’.

Having met complete defeat in Afghanistan, unable to sustain mounting pressure for the revival of Iran nuclear deal and fearful of the growing closeness of China and Russia, Unite d States opened yet another proxy war in Ukraine. Russia is not proving as easy a prey as Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, three leading producers of crude oil.

Analysts fear that a proxy war could be initiated between India and Pakistan to sabotage CPEC. The United States consider it the biggest threat to its hegemony in Middle East and North Africa as well as South Asia.

Putin’s Most Difficult Demands

According to The Epoch Times, Russian President, Vladimir Putin has laid out several demands for Ukraine including two ‘most difficult issues’ during a phone call with Turkish President, Tayyip Erdogan.

The demands can be divided into two parts; Turkish presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin told several media outlets. 

The first four articles appear to be possible common ground for both sides.

“Basically, there are six topics:

The first is Ukraine’s neutrality, that is, its withdrawal from NATO membership.

Second, disarmament and mutual security guarantees in the context of the Austrian model.

Third, is the process that the Russian side refers to as ‘de-Nazification.’

Fourth, removing obstacles to the widespread use of Russian in Ukraine,

Some progress has been made in the above four topics. However, it’s too early to say there is potentially a full agreement that could be reached because there are two other “most difficult issues.”

Putin put forward two territory-related demands.

Putin would require Ukraine to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and admit the independence of the Donbas, a disputed region in southeastern Ukraine.

Putin recognized the independence of Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, two separatist territories in the Donbas, days before he ordered a full invasion of Ukraine.

Putin reportedly told Erdogan he would hold talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky personally about the territory-related issues if the two sides reached common ground on the first four areas.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Ukrainian government and the Russian government for comments.

Zelensky has been asking Putin to talk with him directly after the war broke out. He proposed again on Saturday that the disputes between Russia and Ukraine be solved through meaningful talks.

“Negotiations on peace, on security for us, for Ukraine—meaningful, fair, and without delay—are the only chance for Russia to reduce the damage from its own mistakes,” he said in a statement.

He also warned that the war would cause huge losses to Russia if the two sides don’t reach a timely end to the war.

“Otherwise, Russia’s losses will be so huge that several generations will not be enough to rebound,” he said.

Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, after the efforts to deter war failed.

The United Nations said that, as of March 19, they had recorded 847 deaths and 1,399 injuries of civilians in Ukraine because of Russia’s military action against Ukraine, mostly caused by shelling and airstrikes.

However, the U.N. believes that the actual figures are considerably higher.

Over 3.3 million people have fled Ukraine since the war began, United Nations data show.

 

Iran and China discuss regional and international issues

Lately, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian spoke on phone with the Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi about bilateral relations as well as regional and international issues of mutual interest.

Iranian Foreign Minister said that if the United States is serious, a good and robust agreement on reviving the US-abandoned Iran deal may be reached through Vienna talks.

Amir Abdollahian briefed his Chinese counterpart on the latest developments in efforts to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran deal.

“If the American side is realistic, we will finalize a good, strong, and lasting agreement with the support of all negotiating parties in Vienna,” Amir Abdollahian said.

He stated that Iran is ready to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible to settle the remaining unresolved concerns through consultation with relevant parties in order to strike a good deal.

Iran expressed gratitude to China for its constructive engagement in the talks and expressed optimism that China would continue to give assistance.

“Iran is ready to resume the negotiations as soon as possible to resolve the final outstanding issues through consultation with other parties and strive for a good agreement,” Abdollahian told Wang, thanking Beijing “for its constructive role in the negotiations.”

He also mentioned his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, stating that the Russian side reaffirmed its support for the lifting of US sanctions against the Islamic Republic by participating constructively in the Vienna talks.

Iran insists it wants assurances that the US would not abandon the agreement again. It also wants that US sanctions to be lifted in a verifiable way.

For his part, Wang stated that China has long supported achieving an agreement on restoring the JCPOA and is open to and supportive of efforts to this end. 

“China is willing to strengthen coordination and cooperation with Iran to push the settlement of the Iran nuclear issue in a direction conducive to regional peace and stability,” the chief diplomat pointed out.

He went on to say that the Chinese side recognizes Iran's genuine concerns, supports Iran in protecting its legitimate rights and interests, and opposes unilateral sanctions that have no legal basis.

“China understands Iran’s legitimate concerns and supports Iran in safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests and opposes unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law.” Wang asserted.

In reference to the continued growth of bilateral relations, the Chinese foreign minister stated that Beijing places a high value on expanding exchanges with Tehran and has no reservations about extending such relationships.

“In the face of the rapidly evolving international and regional situation, China is ready to strengthen coordination and cooperation with Iran to push for the resolution of the Iran nuclear issue in a direction conducive to regional peace and stability,” Wang said.

Amir Abdollahian also emphasized the importance of Tehran-Beijing relations and the necessity to strengthen them, stating that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's government prioritizes the development of ties. 

China plans to host the summit of the Foreign Ministers of countries neighboring Afghanistan. It will be the third summit of its kind. Wang lauded Iran's Foreign Minister for accepting an invitation to participate in the meeting.

Amir Abdollahian met with his Russian counterpart Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister stated that “Russia remains onboard for the final agreement in Vienna.”

The Iranian Foreign Minister visited Russia at a time that mainstream Western media outlets are speculating that Russia is impeding the conclusion of the negotiations in Vienna.

“I am tired of speculations regarding the Russian position at the final stage of the #ViennaTalks,” Russia’s lead negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov said via Twitter early on Wednesday. “Misunderstandings, misinterpretations, and distortion of realities. The bottom line: conclusion of the agreement depends not on Russia, but on others, especially #US.”

There is a moratorium on the talks in Vienna to allow negotiators to return to their respective capitals for more contacts to address a few unresolved concerns.

All sides to the talks have openly said that they are nearing the end of the process. Washington stated on Monday that the parties involved are “close to the finish line.” Iran has urged the US to abandon its “excessive demands” in order to reach an agreement as soon as possible.

The United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and launched a “maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions and intimidation against Iran. The Vienna talks seek to push the US to completely respect the agreement by lifting all anti-Iran sanctions.

 

Biden threats Xi Jinping of serious consequences

US President, Joe Biden has warned Chinese President Xi Jinping that Beijing would face consequences if it provides material support to Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine, the White House said Friday. 

“President Biden detailed our efforts to prevent and then respond to the invasion, including by imposing costs on Russia,” said a White House readout of the call published hours after it concluded. “He described the implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia as it conducts brutal attacks against Ukrainian cities and civilians.”

Reportedly, the two leaders spoke for nearly two hours on Friday morning on a secure video call, which a senior administration official described as direct, substantive and detailed and largely focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“We’re concerned that they’re considering directly assisting Russia with military equipment to use in Ukraine,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on Thursday, the day the White House announced plans for the phone call.

The senior administration official told reporters that Biden did not make specific requests of Xi when questioned if Biden asked China to intervene to stop the Russian assault. 

“The president really wasn’t making specific requests of China,” the official said. “He was laying out his assessment of the situation, what he thinks makes sense and the implications of certain actions.”

Asked why that was the case later Friday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters, “Because China has to make a decision for themselves about where they want to stand.”

Psaki said, the administration was still concerned about the possibility of China aiding Russia militarily.

“That is something we will be watching and the world will be watching,” she said.

A Chinese readout of the call said that Xi told Biden that China does not want to see the situation in Ukraine to come to this. Xi also affirmed support for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, according to the readout, which also indicated he did not condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

“All sides need to jointly support Russia and Ukraine in having dialogue and negotiation that will produce results and lead to peace,” the readout posted by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

“The US and NATO should also have dialogue with Russia to address the crux of the Ukraine crisis and ease the security concerns of both Russia and Ukraine.”

Both readouts indicated the two leaders tasked their teams to follow up on the conversation in the days ahead. 

China, which has deepened relations with Russia in recent years, has tried to portray itself as a neutral party in the Ukraine conflict. The US officials have urged China to condemn Russia’s behavior while raising concerns about China’s ties to Russia.

Reports surfaced earlier this week that Russia was seeking military assistance from China as it continues its invasion.

During a lengthy meeting with China’s top diplomat earlier this week in Rome, Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that Beijing would face consequences if it helped Russia with the invasion financially or militarily.

White House officials have also raised concerns about China amplifying Russian claims that the US is developing biological weapons in Ukraine, which the US has called disinformation meant to lay the foundation for a possible Russian chemical attack. 

The senior administration official told reporters Friday that Biden directly expressed concerns to Xi about China echoing Russian disinformation about bio-weapons labs in Ukraine during the call. 

Russia has escalated its attacks on Ukraine since it first launched its invasion three weeks ago, despite officials and experts saying the Russian advance has not moved as quickly or as effectively as the Kremlin had hoped.

Russia has launched missiles targeting hospitals and civilian areas, prompting Biden and Blinken to call Russian President Vladimir Putin a “war criminal.”

The US has provided Ukraine with billions of dollars in humanitarian and security assistance. Biden this week announced a total of US$1 trillion in aid that will be used to supply anti-aircraft defense systems, anti-tank weapons and other arms to Ukraine.

Separate from talks on Ukraine, Biden reiterated that the US has not changed its policy on Taiwan and “emphasized that the United States continues to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo,” according to the White House readout.

The senior administration official said Xi was the one who raised the issue of Taiwan.

Taiwan has been a source of some tension between the US and China, and Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has prompted concerns among some international watchdogs that China may try to invade or lay claim to the island.

Biden has previously told Xi the US is committed to the “One China” policy, under which the US does not recognize Taiwan as a separate state from China, but had also mistakenly said the US had an obligation to send troops to Taiwan if it were attacked by China.

Under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the US is committed to providing Taiwan with arms for its defense. The law does not commit the US to sending troops to Taiwan to defend it. 

Russia-Ukraine conflict a major blow to the global economy

According to the blog writers of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Russia-Ukraine conflict is a major blow to the global economy that will hurt growth and raise prices. 

Beyond the suffering and humanitarian crisis from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the entire global economy will feel the effects of slower growth and faster inflation. Impacts will flow through three main channels:

1) Higher prices for commodities like food and energy will push up inflation further, in turn eroding the value of incomes and weighing on demand.

2) Neighboring economies in particular will grapple with disrupted trade, supply chains, and remittances as well as an historic surge in refugee flows.

3) Reduced business confidence and higher investor uncertainty will weigh on asset prices, tightening financial conditions and potentially spurring capital outflows from emerging markets.

Russia and Ukraine are major commodities producers, and disruptions have caused global prices to soar, especially for oil and natural gas. Food costs have jumped, with wheat, for which Ukraine and Russia make up 30% of global exports, reaching a record.

Beyond global spillovers, countries with direct trade, tourism, and financial exposures will feel additional pressures. Economies reliant on oil imports will see wider fiscal and trade deficits and more inflation pressure, though some exporters such as those in the Middle East and Africa may benefit from higher prices.

Steeper price increases for food and fuel may spur a greater risk of unrest in some regions, from Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America to the Caucasus and Central Asia, while food insecurity is likely to further increase in parts of Africa and the Middle East.

Gauging these reverberations is hard, but we already see our growth forecasts as likely to be revised down next month when we will offer a fuller picture in our World Economic Outlook and regional assessments.

Longer term, the war may fundamentally alter the global economic and geopolitical order should energy trade shift, supply chains reconfigure, payment networks fragment, and countries rethink reserve currency holdings. Increased geopolitical tension further raises risks of economic fragmentation, especially for trade and technology.