Two years ago, on 5th August 2019, Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi removed the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir as a state and
redesignated it as two union territories, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and
Ladakh, which are governed directly from Delhi.
He also scrapped Article 370 of
the Indian constitution, which had allowed J&K to make its own laws, and
cancelled Article 35A, which gave its legislature the power to determine who
was a permanent resident of the state.
The effective annexation of J&K was overwhelmingly
rejected by Kashmiri Muslims. Pakistan virulently opposed it, arguing that
because J&K was considered by the United Nations Security Council to be
disputed territory; its annexation violated international law.
Modi claimed that this unilateral move would bring peace and
development to J&K. Not surprisingly, this action by his Hindu nationalist
party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has only brought more misery and more
violence. And, sadly, the future doesn’t look promising.
Within a year, the impact on the economy of
J&K was disastrous. Another year later, and notwithstanding the Modi government’s
assertions that the political changes had brought socioeconomic
development to the region, economic activity has come to a standstill. A
double lockdown, political and Covid-driven, has hit the tourism industry very
hard. Starved of international tourists, those running the famous house boats
on Dal Lake in Srinagar are desperately struggling to survive.
Many of the political leaders arrested two years ago
are still under house arrest or in jail. The BJP has made rampant use of a
particularly harsh piece of legislation, the Unlawful Activities Prevention
Act—which permits detention without charge for up to six months—to crack down
on all forms of dissent. Torture and mistreatment of detainees, including
teenagers, is common practice. Less than 1% of arrests under the act have
resulted in a conviction in the past 10 years. Modi has used the law to silence
civil-society organizations, in particular, the Association of Parents of
Disappeared Persons and the Jammu Kashmir Coalition of Civil Society—the only
two groups documenting human rights abuses in J&K.
India’s harsh and uncompromising approach to J&K has
come to the attention of the UN. In March 2021, five UN special rapporteurs
wrote a letter to the Modi government expressing their concerns over arbitrary
detentions, extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances in J&K. That
letter and five previous communications by other UN rapporteurs since 5 August
2019 have been ignored.
In June 2021, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres,
concerned by grave human rights violations in J&K, asked the Indian
government to end the use of shotgun pellets against children. The dire
situation in J&K has also come to the attention of the EU. A number of
members of the European Parliament have written to the president and vice
president of the European Commission expressing concern about the human rights
violations in J&K.
Kashmiri political leaders—most of whom have lost all
credibility with Kashmiris—have demanded that J&K’s statehood be restored.
Minister of State for Home Affairs Nityanand Rai has said in the
Indian parliament that statehood would be ‘granted at an appropriate time after
normalcy is restored’. The Indian government’s response begs more questions
about Kashmir’s future.
In the meantime, Delhi has extended until March
2022 the role of the Delimitation Commission established to redraw the
electoral constituencies of J&K. Most Kashmiris fear that the commission’s
real task is to redraw the electoral map to make it easier for the BJP to win
the next election, whenever that will be.
But more worrisome to Kashmiris is that since the
legislative changes in August 2019, well over three million domicile
certificates have been granted to non-Kashmiris, most of them non-Muslims.
Moreover, there’s a fear that Delhi will apply to Kashmir the 2019 Citizenship
Amendment Act, which requires Muslims to prove their citizenship. Many would
not be able to do so because they have no official papers to confirm their
legal status.
The Modi government has been keen to assist the return
to Kashmir of thousands of Kashmiri Pandits (Hindus) who left because of the
security situation in the 1990s. As former J&K finance minister Haseeb
Drabu noted, Kashmiris are worried that through the use of legislative and
administrative actions the Modi government is trying ‘to convert a
demographic majority into a political minority’.
Despite the misery Kashmiris endure daily, the international
community has no appetite to confront Modi on this. And he knows it.
There are critical strategic issues to deal with, notably
the growing tension between the West and China and the deteriorating situation
in Afghanistan, in which India could play an important role. India’s
geostrategic importance is further strengthened by its membership, along with
the US, Japan and Australia, of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Given that
context, Kashmir simply doesn’t make it onto the agenda.
On his recent visit to India, US Secretary of State Antony
Blinken did not allow Kashmir and other human rights issues, such as the poor
treatment of Muslims in India, to complicate the bilateral meeting. When asked
to comment on the wobbliness of India’s democracy, Blinken stated, ‘We
view Indian democracy as a force for good in defense of a free and open
Indo-Pacific. We also recognize that every democracy, starting with our own, is
a work in progress.’ This would have been sweet music to his host, India’s
Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar.
Sadly, once again, politics takes precedence over
human rights issues. There’s no expectation that anything will change soon for
Kashmiris because there’s absolutely no international pressure on Modi to
relent.