Rising gas and crude oil prices not a good omen

Meteorologists are predicting a cold winter, and it could send international energy prices even higher. Record high natural gas prices have forced some utilities to switch to oil, boosting demand for crude. It is feared that oil prices may witness further rise, though not likely to stay there for long.

The spike in oil prices to the highest in years came after OPEC plus decided not to add more barrels than the initially agreed 400,000 bpd monthly. Analysts say that prices could witness further increase. Now, some forecast price may rise to US$100/barrel. The good news is that even if it happens, it won’t last. 

Goldman Sachs recently updated its oil price forecast for the final quarter, saying it now expect Brent crude to reach US$90/barrel by end December 2021. The bank believes oil demand could jump by 900,000 bpd if the winter gets harsher.

“While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts,” the bank’s commodity analysts said in late September this year.

Then Bank of America said oil could hit US$100/barrel because of the energy crunch that has now gone global. US Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm said last week that the government may release oil from the country’s emergency reserve to lower gasoline prices.

The record-high natural gas prices have forced some utilities to switch to oil derivatives instead, boosting demand for crude and, like Goldman, noted the prospect of a cold winter as another bullish factor for oil.

“If all these factors come together, oil prices could spike and lead to a second round of inflationary pressures around the world,” BofA analysts wrote in a note. “Put differently, we may just be one storm away from the next macro hurricane.”

Yet even if Brent hits US$100/barrel, it is unlikely to stay there for long, according to John Driscoll, chief strategist at JTD Energy Services. And it would take a lot of things to happen for the benchmark to reach this price level.

“I see that as kind of a lower probability scenario. That is, if everything goes wrong, if we have Arctic weather, if we’ve got glitches, breakdowns in the deliverability, the supply chains. That is a possible scenario but I don’t see that likely to be sustainable,” Driscoll told CNBC last week.

Yet the weather is impossible to predict with any accuracy over longer periods of time, and indeed, current forecasts for the winter season differ dramatically among meteorologists, as Bloomberg reported earlier this month. 

The rational thing to do, of course, is to plan for the worst possible scenario, which would be a very cold winter. Indeed, this was what Europe and China tried to do and what became one big reason for the gas price spike. 

Yet some of that spike, at least, was the result of speculation rather than fundamentals. Gas prices dropped after Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country will supply additional gas to Europe.

Kamala comes under heavy criticism after address at George Mason University

There are moments, often quite fleeting, when the masks put on by politicians briefly fall away, revealing the true person who lies beneath the carefully cultivated layers of spin and sophistry. Kamala Harris had just such a moment last week. And it wasn’t pretty.

Speaking at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, to mark National Voter Registration Day, the vice president of the United States took a question from a student that was as fallacious as it was foolish.

 The student, who identified herself as Iranian and Yemeni, said that “just a few days ago there were funds allocated to continue backing Israel, which hurts my heart because it’s an ethnic genocide and a displacement of people, the same that happened in America, and I’m sure you’re aware of this.”

Rather than denouncing or contradicting this appalling accusation of “ethnic genocide” against America’s best friend in the Middle East, Harris chose instead to nod respectfully and then failed to counter the antisemitic libel.

Worse yet, Harris proceeded to praise the student, saying she was “glad” she had raised the subject, before adding, “this is about the fact that your voice, your perspective, your experience, your truth, should not be suppressed and it must be heard, right?”

This is what Barack Obama must have meant by the term “a teachable moment,” for we just learned a heck of a lot about Kamala Harris.

To begin with, her failure to rebut the assault on Israel’s legitimacy speaks volumes in and of itself. In carefully crafted press releases and speeches put together by her staff, Harris will, of course, mumble mantras of support for the Jewish state. But when left bare and unscripted, her instinct is not to refute the slandering of Israel but, rather, to affirm it as a form of “truth.”

It’s no wonder that the Iranian government-owned Press TV was quick to tweet out a video of Harris’s performance.

No less appalling was her suggestion that there are many truths, which is a form of moral relativism that serves only to muddy the waters and confer an air of legitimacy on outright falsehoods.

Back in January 2017, when Kellyanne Conway, an adviser to President Donald Trump, used the term “alternative facts” in a Meet the Press interview when describing the size of the crowd at the presidential inauguration, she was widely ridiculed.

Yet that is precisely what Harris did, effectively saying that to view Israel as a murderous, genocidal entity is as valid as any other opinion.

Moreover, in telling the student that her position should “not be suppressed,” she seemed to suggest that the Palestinian side of the story goes unheard.

Sherman lauds Pakistan for helping Afghan refugees over last 42 years

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on Friday expressed appreciation for Pakistan's efforts to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, saying that it should be "very proud of 42 years of helping Afghan refugees" and the US, as well as the world, was grateful for that. 

Sherman lauded Pakistan's role during an exclusive interview on PTV News program 'Shahrah-e-Dastoor'.

In response to a question, Sherman said she had visited a United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Documentation Renewal and Information Verification Exercise centre earlier in the day, where registration cards were being issued to Afghan refugees so that they could have access to facilities such as healthcare in Pakistan.

"It is an extraordinary system," she said, commending Pakistan for persistently helping Afghan refugees over a long period of time.

Sherman was also asked about her comments about relations between the US and Pakistan during her visit to India.

"It’s for a very specific and narrow purpose, we don’t see ourselves building a broad relationship with Pakistan," she had said, according to Indian publication The Indian Express.

In response to the question, Sherman clarified that by "specific steps" she meant that the purpose of her trip to Pakistan was to predominantly focus on the aftermath of events in Afghanistan and review bilateral relationships between the US and Pakistan.

"The US and Pakistan have had longstanding relations for decades," she said.

She went on to say, "This is a time of great change in the region because of the events in Afghanistan", and the US and the world was reassessing what the future would look like and how to ensure a better future for Afghans and ensure that no country remained a safe haven for terrorists.

Sherman also assured that the US was willing to engage with Pakistan on the wide-ranging agenda we have and the aftermath of recent events in Afghanistan.

She added that the US was glad that Pakistan had called for an inclusive government in Afghanistan and progress on this front should be made so as to "create a better life for the people of Afghanistan".

"And we also agree that humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan should continue," Sherman said, sharing details of measures taken by the US for this purpose.

When asked about the Quad, a recently formed group that includes India, United States, Japan and Australia as members and perceived to be an alliance against China in the region, Sherman described it as a cooperative effort on matters such as energy and people-to-people exchange.

In this connection, she also clarified that the US didn't ask countries to choose between itself and China.

Acknowledging that China was a large economy and growing world power, she added, "What we do ask is that China plays by rules" in the international order.

"We urge countries to insist on that so that everyone has a level-playing field".

When she was asked about America's stance on the Kashmir dispute, Sherman said she realized that it was a long-standing, complex and historical issue, but "it is between India and Pakistan".

The US would urge for dialogue on the matter, she added.

Sherman also lauded initiatives taken by Prime Minister Imran Khan's government to mitigate climate change.

Sherman appreciates Pakistan's efforts to evacuate foreign citizens from Afghanistan

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on Friday appreciated Pakistan's efforts to evacuate foreign citizens from Afghanistan as well as its efforts for regional peace. The US official also praised the progress in talks between the US and Pakistan on climate change and alternate sources of energy.

The meeting between US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman  and Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi was also attended by US Assistant Secretary of South and Central Asian Affairs David Lu and Pakistani Foreign Secretary Sohail Mahmood.

In a tweet later in the day, Sherman said she discussed Afghanistan's future and the important and long-standing US-Pakistan relationship with Qureshi during the meeting.

"We look forward to continuing to address pressing regional and global challenges," she added.

Qureshi said that Pakistan wants broad-ranging, long-term and stable relations with the United States to promote economic cooperation and establish peace in the region.

He made the comments during a meeting with Wendy Sherman, currently on a two-day visit to Pakistan. The two sides discussed bilateral relations, Afghanistan and the regional situation during the meeting.

Qureshi stressed that a proper dialogue between the two countries was "necessary" for mutual benefit of the US and Pakistan as well as the promotion of regional objectives, the FO statement said.

The foreign minister said Pakistan and US had similar perspectives and stressed the importance of a peaceful solution to the situation in Afghanistan.

He further said Pakistan hoped the interim Taliban government in Afghanistan would work for the betterment of all Afghan citizens alongside peace and stability.

"A representative and inclusive Afghan government can be a trustworthy partner for the international community. In the current situation, there is a need for proper steps by the international community to ensure positive inclusion, provision of humanitarian aid and financial resources to set up a stable economy to solve the problems of the Afghan public," the statement quoted Qureshi as saying.

The foreign minister also stressed on a solution to the Kashmir dispute for lasting peace and stability in the South Asian region while apprising the US delegation of the human rights violations in Indian-occupied Kashmir.

He also thanked the US deputy secretary of state for the country's donation of Covid-19 vaccines to Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Sherman offered condolences on the lives lost in the earthquake in Baluchistan’s Harnai district a day earlier.

On Thursday, National Security Adviser (NSA) Moeed Yusuf, in a meeting with the US Deputy Secretary State, stressed that the international community "must maintain contact" with the interim Taliban government in Afghanistan.

According to a report by Radio Pakistan, during the meeting both sides expressed the desire to promote bilateral relations between the two countries.

They also discussed economic cooperation as well as the security situation in the region, it added.

In his remarks, Yusuf said that blatant human rights violations in Indian-occupied Kashmir also posed a threat to regional peace.

Sherman and her seven-member team arrived in Islamabad on Thursday for a two-day visit to the country.

She had earlier visited India and attended a series of bilateral meetings, civil society events, and the India Ideas Summit.

"The visit is taking place at a very critical time, both in the context of Afghanistan and developments in the wider region," said a senior diplomatic source when asked to explain why Islamabad sees this as an important visit.

Iran Taliban alliance may delay recognition of new Afghan government

The Taliban victory and the American exit from Afghanistan have shuffled the pack in the region in multiple ways. Several of Afghanistan’s neighbours with major stakes in the country have reacted to these developments with ambivalence. 

Pakistan, the Taliban’s major external source of support and its primary advocate in the international community, has exulted over the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan because it serves its strategic objectives vis-à-vis its nemesis India.

At the same time, the Pakistani military and civilian establishments have met these developments with a degree of trepidation. They’re worried that the Taliban’s return to power could reenergize the extremist Islamist elements in Pakistan that are committed to changing the country’s political system to a ‘pristine’ Islamic one. The military is especially concerned that the Taliban would extend support to the Pakistani Taliban who have fought major battles against the Pakistani army in the past and could once again pose a major challenge to the country’s security.

Similarly, the Chinese and the Russians are happy to see the Americans humiliated because it undermines Washington’s status, thus strengthening their standing internationally. However, both Beijing and Moscow are concerned about the impact of the Taliban’s victory on their own restive Muslim populations in Xinjiang and the Caucuses. Insurgent groups consisting of Uyghurs and Chechens are active in Afghanistan and have received support from the Taliban and other Islamist formations. Rebel groups from Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states allied to Russia have also found succour in Afghanistan in areas controlled by the Taliban.

Iran falls in the same category as China and Russia but with a major difference. While China and Russia perceive the US as a competitor, Iran sees America as an unquestionably hostile power—‘the Great Satan’—committed to not only destroying the regime but also driving the nation into destitution and incapacitating the state to such a degree that it can’t assume its rightful place in the comity of nations. It also perceives the US to be the proxy for Israel, Iran’s primary regional adversary, which is bent on destroying any semblance of Iranian nuclear capability by launching clandestine attacks on Iranian nuclear installations and assassinating its nuclear scientists.

This is why Iran has been far more enthusiastic than either China or Russia in welcoming the Taliban victory. It’s not because Tehran loves Taliban but because they drove US forces out of Iran’s neighbourhood. The Iranian regime believes that the abrupt and disorderly US withdrawal is bound to affect America’s credibility among its allies, principally Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are Iran’s major adversaries in the Gulf, thus weakening their resolve to compete with it in the region.

Iran also perceives the American withdrawal as a sign of President Joe Biden’s weakness, from which it could benefit during the continuing negotiations aimed at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) abandoned by Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump in 2018. The new Iranian government under President Ebrahim Raisi has already made clear that, while it’s willing to return to the limits imposed on its nuclear program by the JCPOA, it will do so only if its three principal demands are met. The US must immediately lift all sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, must give an ironclad undertaking that it won’t unilaterally withdraw from the agreement in the future, and must not seek to tie any other issues, such as Iran’s missile program or its regional policies, to the revival of the JCPOA. Iran is in no hurry to return to the agreement. It is in fact using the threat of an imminent nuclear breakout to pressure the Biden administration to accept its preconditions for a return to the JCPOA.

Positive Iran–Taliban relations could also contribute to weakening the American bargaining position on the JCPOA. While Tehran may be underplaying its religio-ideological antipathy towards the Taliban, it hasn’t forgotten the atrocities committed on the Shia Hazara population under the first Taliban regime. It also hasn’t forgotten the Taliban’s massacre of 10 Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif in 1998, an event that brought Iran and Afghanistan to the brink of war. However, the two parties’ shared objective of forcing the US out of Afghanistan has trumped Iran’s ideological hostility towards and religious detestation of the Taliban.

Iran’s pragmatic approach to the Taliban is also driven by its interest in securing its eastern borders against drug traffickers, refugees and, above all, hostile groups such as Baluchi irredentists. Tehran sees the Taliban regime as indispensable in providing such security. Iran is also keen on selling fuel to Afghanistan and has in fact ramped up supplies since the Taliban capture of Kabul. Finally, Iran considers its presence in Afghanistan to be essential for countering what it sees as the malign influence of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on the Taliban regime.

The Iranian policy of live and let live when it comes to the Taliban is a part of its larger regional policy of consolidating and expanding its influence to ensure its security and keep hostile powers at bay. It has been doing so across its western borders, where Iranian-financed and -trained militias have become significant political and military players in Iraq. Hezbollah, Iran’s oldest ally in the Arab world, plays an even larger political role in Lebanon and has become an indispensable partner in any governing coalition in the country.

Taliban may not be as pliant a partner as the Iraqi Shia militias, but maintaining good relations will provide Iran with much greater security on its eastern borders and constrain other powers such as China, Russia and Pakistan from harming Iranian interests in Afghanistan, a country strategically located at the junction of the Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia.

McMaster proposes to remove Pakistan’s status as a major non-NATO ally

According to media reports, testifying before a powerful Congressional Committee on Afghanistan, former General H. R. McMaster, said that the United States needs to hold the Pakistan Prime Minister accountable for some of his comments after the fall of Kabul in August.

It is also delusional, he said, to think that any of the money that would go to the Taliban or through the Taliban for humanitarian purposes would not immediately be used by the Taliban to solidify their power and to become an even greater threat. “So, we're in a situation where we're facing a really extraordinary dilemma that it's going to be tough for us to mitigate the humanitarian crisis without empowering the Taliban,” he said in response to a question.

“I don't think we should give any assistance to Pakistan at all. I think Pakistan has had it both ways for way too long. I think Pakistan should be confronted with its behavior over the years that have actually resulted, I think, in large measure in this outcome,” McMaster said.

It was during the Trump Administration that the US had blocked all security assistance to Pakistan. The Biden Administration has not resumed the security aide yet.

“I think we ought to hold Imran Khan responsible for his comments when Kabul fell and he said that the Afghan people have been unshackled. Why should we send a dime to Pakistan under any conditions? I think that they should be confronted with international isolation because of their support for jihadist terrorists, who are threats to humanity, including the Haqqani network, the Taliban, and groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba,” he said.

Responding to a question from Congressman Scott Perry, during the Congressional hearing convened by the House Foreign Affairs Committee, McMaster said that it is a good idea to remove Pakistan’s status as a major non-NATO ally.

“I would say the only time I think we have ever laid out a very clear and realistic assessment of South Asia and prioritized the strategy was President Trump's speech in August of 2017. Now, he abandoned it and he doubled down on the flaws of the Obama administration. I don't know how that happened. But I think if you go back to that August 2017 speech, that was the proper approach to Pakistan as well, which called for a suspension of all assistance to Pakistan until Pakistan fundamentally changed its behaviour,” McMaster said.

Congressman Bill Keating said Pakistan remains a problem and the US needs to assess it.

“Its long-standing activities, by many accounts, have been negative. I think that's putting it mildly. For decades, though, for decades, whether you go back to'96 when the Taliban took control, Pakistan was one of the first to recognize them,” he said.

“When you go through the change in 2001 in Afghanistan and then the reconstruction of the Taliban starting around 2005, they were there giving assistance, by all accounts, and I believe those accounts are accurate. And indeed, right up into this current change in the government, Pakistan, there were many people that suggested their intelligence was embedded with them,” Keating said.

Pakistan’s relationship with the Haqqani network is one that is of great concern.

“That may indeed affect our relations with India in that respect. But can you comment on that? I think they have been duplicitous, not just recently, not just in the few months of this administration, but for decades in this with many administrations, Republican and Democratic alike,” he said.

Former US Ambassador to Pakistan Ryan Croker acknowledged that Pakistan worked against the US in some very fundamental aspects with their support for the Taliban.

“Earlier, I tried to present their narrative as to why. We were going to walk out, and they did not want to be left with the Taliban as a mortal enemy. They may get that anyway. And as satisfying as it would be to a lot of us, myself included, to do something to punish Pakistan for this, I don't think we have the luxury. They are already worried over the repercussions inside their own country of the Taliban's so-called victory in Afghanistan,” he said.

“Now, we can say, ‘Yeah. Well, they deserve whatever they get.’ But again, a blow-up in Kashmir is going to bring a regional war. So, I think reassessment is always good, but let's reassess with a clear eye on the dangers now that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has created throughout the region. We do not need a completely destabilized Pakistani state with nuclear weapons,” Croker said.

McMaster told the lawmakers that the Taliban was backed by ISI and that’s why they recaptured Afghanistan.

“The Taliban's differential advantage was the backing by the ISI of other groups. But it was the unscrupulous units who are willing to terrorize. They didn't give up their differential advantage. And so, I don't think it's a mystery at all why they collapsed. And I think it should be unacceptable, to disparage the Afghans who did fight, and over 60,000 of them made the ultimate sacrifice to preserve the freedoms we're now seeing,” he said.

The Taliban, he said, went around to the Afghan units, and they said, "Hey, here's how this is going to go."

With the backing of the Pakistani ISI, intertwined with the Haqqani network and Al-Qaida, what they did is they told those commanders, "Hey, listen. You accommodate with us. We give you the signal, or we kill your family. How does that sound?" he said.

And that's why the Afghan forces collapsed in addition to the withdrawal of US intelligence support, the withdrawal of our airpower, which was the Afghan forces differential advantage, McMaster said.

Has Wendy Sherman got a recipe to mend deteriorating US-Pakistan relations?

US Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman is scheduled to reach Islamabad on Thursday for talks aimed at bridging the widening breach between the United States and Pakistan on the Afghan issue, according to a note issued by the office of the department’s spokesperson.

 “The visit is taking place at a very critical time both, in the context of Afghanistan and developments in the wider region,” said a senior diplomatic source.

The source pointed out that the Biden administration did “not seem to be reluctant to travel to both India and Pakistan in a go, which was the case in the past.”

“This is an important visit, and we look forward to engaging with Ms. Sherman,” said Pakistan’s Ambassador, Asad Majeed Khan while talking to Dawn. “Together, we would explore ways to strengthen and expand our bilateral cooperation in areas of mutual interest and concern.”

According to the sources, Biden administration is focusing on four major points in its talks with Pakistan linked to Afghanistan these are: 1) recognition of Taliban government, 2) imposition of sanctions in case Taliban don’t behave as per the US expectations 3) access to Afghanistan and 4) counter-terrorism cooperation with Pakistan.

The sources say that the United States does not want Pakistan to recognize Taliban regime before the rest of the international community. Instead, it wants Pakistan to continue its efforts for softening Taliban position on controversial issues, such as inclusive governance, human rights, girls’ education and allowing women to work.

The Americans believe that a change of position on these issues could have a positive impact on Taliban image and pave the way for their acceptance in the United Nations. Individual nations, like Pakistan, should delay their recognition till then.

To begin with, analysts are of the opinion that Pakistan is a sovereign country and its foreign policy should not be dictated by the United States.

They also say that Pakistan has emerged at total loser after joining ‘war against terror’. Though, Americans were never tired of terming Pakistan ‘frontline allay’, India emerged as their major partner in economic development in Afghanistan. This created anti-Pakistan sentiment among Afghans living in the areas under the control of ‘Northern Alliance’.

While ‘do more mantra’ was common, many Pakistanis just can’t condone the US troops for their attacks on Pakistani check posts, worst being Salala tragedy

‘Arm twisting has been common’ in negotiations with the IMF, Americans mostly followed ‘carrot and stick’ policy.

Pakistanis have not forgotten delays the delivery of F-16.

Wendy Sherman’s likely agenda in India

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy R. Sherman is set to have a packed agenda during her visit to India, which will pave the way for the India-US Trade Policy Forum (TPF) and the maiden 2+2 ministerial dialogue under the Joe Biden administration.

Sherman is visiting India from 6 to 7 October and will be reaching New Delhi from Tashkent. She will be meeting government officials, representatives from civil societies and will also visit Mumbai on October 07 to meet the business community.

Sherman is expected to set the tone for the upcoming 2+2 talks between the Foreign and Defence ministers of both countries, which is likely to take place in November.

The India-US TPF was established in 2005 with the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in India as nodal agencies.

Under the previous US administration, headed by President Donald Trump, the TPF met only once in October 2017 when the then US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer met India’s former Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu.

However, after this meeting, President Trump called off the talks and began negotiations for a limited trade deal between India and the US as an answer to a plethora of trade issues between both the countries.

These issues range from lowering of tariffs for American goods, especially agricultural produce, to increase in tariffs on IT products by India.

However, despite a series of negotiations between both the sides, the plan to have a small trade deal, followed by a larger one, could not be clinched.

According to the sources, the Biden administration is not yet keen to have a trade deal with India since it plans to smoothen out “trade irritants” first, under the TPF.

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US last week, India made sure to put trade back on the table as the government eyes large trade deals in its second term, unlike the first one.

“Between India and the United States, trade will continue to assume importance, and we find that the trade between our two countries is actually complementary,” Modi said in Washington last week, addressing a joint press conference with US President Joe Biden.

The issue of enhancing two-way trade also came up during the meetings Foreign Secretary Harsh V. Shringla had with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Sherman.

The 2+2 dialogue between the US and India will take place in Washington this time, for which External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will visit the US.

This is going to be the first 2+2 level talks between both sides under the Biden administration.

According to sources, during this meet, both sides will discuss the roadmap for Afghanistan that is now being ruled by the Taliban.

They added that the discussions will range from extending humanitarian aid to the Afghan people, support for Afghan women and children and also on the remainder of the evacuation exercise in the country.

Discussions will also be held on the role both countries will be playing in Afghanistan, in terms of whether or not to grant international legitimacy to the Taliban while making them adhere to the UN Resolution 2593 (2021), which was passed under India’s UNSC presidency in August.

The resolution demanded that the territory of Afghanistan not be used for terrorist activities or as a safe haven particularly for groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).

Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister mesmerized by US mantra

Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed skepticism about China's qualification to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) at his first press conference on Monday, noting the bloc's tough free trade requirements.

As regards China's application to join the CPTPP, he said, "we need to look at whether China can meet the high standards required by the trade pact." "It's still unclear if it can," he added.

Kishida noted that China was using force to shift the status quo in the region. "It is important to say what we need to say to China in coordination with allies and partners with whom we share fundamental values," he said.

US President Joe Biden on Monday congratulated Kishida on his election. "The US-Japan Alliance is the cornerstone of peace, security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and the world, and I look forward to working closely with Prime Minister Kishida to strengthen our cooperation in the months and years ahead," he said.

Kishida will speak with Biden over the phone as early as Tuesday, in what is expected to be his first conversation with a global leader since taking office. They will affirm the importance of the Japan-US alliance and exchange ideas on ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific. The leaders are also expected to discuss national security concerns in light of recent developments, including China.

On foreign policy, Kishida laid out three principles: 1) protecting universal values such as freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law; 2) strengthening Japan's defense; and 3) taking the lead in tackling global issues such as climate change and the free flow of data.

On strengthening Japan's security, the Prime Minister specifically mentioned missile defense. "To defend our territory, seas, airspace, as well as the lives and assets of our people, I am determined to strengthen the defense of Japan, including missile defense, and bolster maritime security capabilities," he said.

The reference to missile deterrence is seen as a nod to the upcoming two-plus-two security negotiations with the US Secretaries of State and Defense, during which the US is expected to propose basing intermediate-range missiles in Japan to deter Chinese actions in the Taiwan Strait.

"I will engage in foreign policy and national security challenges with resolve, drawing on the Japan-US alliance and the world's trust in Japan," Kishida said.

Kishida also said he is prepared to meet North Korean leader without preconditions. He called the resolution of the abduction issue ‑ the North's kidnapping of Japanese in the 1970s and '80s ‑ a top priority of the government.

On economic policy, Kishida promised that his cabinet will work together to distribute wealth widely among the people.

"I aim to create a new form of capitalism, and present a new socioeconomic vision to pave the way for Japan's future," he said.

The leader said he will set up a new team to lay out a post-pandemic social and economic vision for Japan. "We will create a positive cycle of growth and distribution to create an economy where people can prosper," he pledged.

Kishida said the government should consider tax reform, in particular changing the current rules that grant lower effective tax rates to those earning 100 million yen (US$900,000) or more.

He also listed a slew of other policies to foster economic growth, including promoting technological advancements, narrowing income gaps between urban and nonurban areas through digitization, protecting Japan's economic security and creating social welfare and tax systems that are fair to all work styles.

Kishida said he will dissolve the lower house on October 14 for an election on October 31, seeking a fresh popular mandate as he takes the country's reins.

"I want the Japanese people to decide before anything else whether they believe in me, and, if possible, to tap that confidence to advance a politics of trust and compassion," he said.

"I set the timeline in hopes of tackling daring coronavirus and economic measures with the public's support," Kishida said. Slowing case numbers in Japan contributed to his decision.

Regarding the Group of 20 Summit and the United Nations COP26 Climate Change Summit, which are scheduled around the time of the election, Kishida said he will be able to take part in discussions through remote and other technologies. "I hope to make Japan's presence felt," he said.

Need to find out reasons for downing of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp

Users have begun reporting Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp returned to function after going offline for users across the globe on Monday and remaining down for nearly six hours. Some users are still experiencing difficulties writing or uploading new posts or stories, but their feed has reloaded.

Downdetector that tracks outages by collating status reports from a series of sources, said that they saw almost 14 million total reports for Facebook, Whatsapp, Instagram and Facebook Messenger said, "We are starting to see reports begin to decline now that Facebook is back up."

Facebook apologized but did not immediately explain what caused the failure. The firm owns Instagram and WhatsApp.

As the world flocked to competing apps such as Twitter and TikTok, shares of Facebook fell 4.9%, their biggest daily drop since last November, amid a broader selloff in technology stocks on Monday. Shares rose about half a percent in after-hours trade following resumption of service.

"To every small and large business, family, and individual who depends on us, I'm sorry," Facebook Chief Technology Officer Mike Schroepfer tweeted, adding that it "may take some time to get to 100%."

Several Facebook employees who declined to be named said that they believed that the outage was caused by an internal mistake in how internet traffic is routed to its systems. The failures of internal communication tools and other resources that depend on that same network in order to work compounded the error, the employees said.

Security experts said an inadvertent mistake or sabotage by an insider were both plausible.

"Facebook basically locked its keys in its car," tweeted Jonathan Zittrain, Director of Harvard's Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society.

As the company was struggling to resume connection, Schroepfer said in a tweet, "We are experiencing networking issues and teams are working as fast as possible to debug and restore." He also apologized sincerely to everyone "impacted by outages."

During the crisis, Facebook workers also reported issues with using their company phones and equipment, and some have even been locked out of the building when their digital cards failed to function, the New York Times reported on Monday.

Other platforms such as Amazon and Telegram have been experiencing difficulties ever since the Facebook shutdown as well, possibly as many users turned to these alternative platforms instead of Facebook, and overloaded their systems.

The severe outage comes immediately after a whistleblower accused Facebook of repeatedly prioritizing profit over clamping down on hate speech and misinformation on Sunday. 

"Strange that hours after a whistleblower calls out Facebook saying they engaged in a 'betrayal of democracy' that Facebook and other companies it owns are totally down." Donald Trump Jr. tweeted on Monday. "I'm sure it's a coincidence."

#Facebookdown and Whatsapp have become trending on Twitter as the world experienced several hours with only one large active social media platform out of the top four used in Israel, Whatsapp, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

Twitter became the hottest arena for the hours when Facebook was off the grid, and started a thread reading, "hello literally everyone." Many industrial giants responded to the tweet, including McDonalds, Microsoft Teams, Alexa, and the culprits themselves, Whatsapp, Instagram and Real Mark Zuckerberg, who tweeted, "Am also here literally. Lol," and assured the fanbase that he was working on the app issues.

Security experts tracking the situation said the outage could have been triggered by a configuration error, which could be the result of an internal mistake, though sabotage by an insider would be theoretically possible.

An outside hack was viewed as less likely. A massive denial-of-service attack that could overwhelm one of the world's most popular sites, on the other hand, would require either coordination among powerful criminal groups or a very innovative technique.

Facebook acknowledged users were having trouble accessing its apps but did not provide any specifics about the nature of the problem or how many were affected by the outage.

"We're working to get things back to normal as quickly as possible, and we apologize for any inconvenience," Facebook said.

Facebook has experienced similar widespread outages with its suite of apps this year in March and July.

Several users using their Facebook credentials to log in to third-party apps such as Pokemon Go and Match Masters also faced issues.

"If your game isn't running as usual please note that there's been an issue with Facebook login servers and the moment this gets fixed all will be back to normal," puzzle game app Match Masters said on its Twitter account.

Commencement of commercial flights between Egypt and Israel

An Egyptair aircraft landed at Ben-Gurion Airport on Sunday in the airline’s first-ever commercial flight to Israel. The Egyptian national carrier will now run four weekly round-trip commercial flights between Tel Aviv and Cairo. 

Sunday’s flight was greeted with the traditional water sprays shot in the air in celebration of the historic event.

Since Israel and Egypt signed a peace deal in 1979, flights between the two countries have been offered by a subsidiary of Egyptair, called Air Sinai, created exclusively for that purpose. Those flights ran with varying frequencies between the two countries, depending on diplomatic conditions, and never showed the company’s logo on the plane.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had met with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi in Sharm el-Sheikh three weeks ago in the first visit of an Israeli prime minister to Egypt in a decade. Sisi felt comfortable at the time announcing the meeting publicly, whereas in the past, only Israel would publicize such high-level diplomatic events.

The flight followed another “historic first” flight last week, a direct commercial flight to Israel from Bahrain, kicking off Gulf Air’s new biweekly route between Ben-Gurion and Manama, Bahrain’s capital city.

Flights between Israel and Dubai began last November, and a direct route to Abu Dhabi launched in April. In July, El Al and Israir both launched their first flights to Marrakesh, Morocco, following the normalization of ties in December.

Israel has had peace with Egypt since 1979, but while Cairo has remained an important strategic partner throughout, the relationship has had hot and cold periods.

Last month the Taba border crossing between Israel and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula returned to full activity after Israel’s National Security Council lowered the travel alert level of beaches there. Travel to Sinai, a popular tourist destination for Israelis, was severely restricted during the past year due to the corona pandemic.

Wendy Sherman could prove tough bargainer for Pakistan

Wendy Ruth Sherman (born June 7, 1949) is an American professor and diplomat serving as the United States Deputy Secretary of State since April 2021. She is a professor of public leadership and Director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School a senior counselor at Albright Stonebridge Group and a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Sherman, a social worker, served as the director of EMILY's list, the director of Maryland's office of child welfare, and the founding president of the Fannie Mae Foundation. During the Clinton administration, she served as Counselor of the United States Department of State from 1997 to 2001. She was also a Special Advisor to President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and North Korea Policy Coordinator. In the latter role, she was instrumental in negotiations related to North Korea's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs.

She served under Hillary Clinton and John Kerry as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs from 2011 to 2015. She was the fourth-ranking official in the US Department of State. In that role, Sherman was the lead negotiator for the Iran nuclear deal. On January 16, 2021, President-elect Joe Biden formally announced Sherman to serve as United States Deputy Secretary of State under Antony Blinken. On March 11, 2021, her nomination was reported out of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Her nomination was approved by the full Senate on April 13, 2021, by a vote of 56 to 42. She is the first woman to hold the position. She was sworn into office on April 14, 2021.

On September 21, 2011, she was appointed to the position of Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs by Secretary Hillary Clinton. In this capacity, Sherman has led the US team during six negotiating rounds between Iran and six world powers about Tehran's nuclear program.

In this position, she was the fourth-highest ranking member of the Department.

She was named part of a special task force by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to implement recommendations to improve protections for Foreign Service personnel, as a result of the 2012 Benghazi attack.

Sherman was critical of Benjamin Netanyahu's commitment towards a two-state solution, suggesting it could impact the United State's veto policy surrounding related resolutions at the United Nations.

 She was criticized by human rights organizations, including Amnesty International for praising Ethiopia for "strengthening its democracy" in wake of the 2015 elections - citing democratic backsliding and suppression of human rights.

She played a role in negotiating the details behind the Syria peace talks of 2016.

Under Secretary Sherman met with Yossi Cohen, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel, at the US Department of State in Washington DC on February 18, 2015.

In October 2013, before negotiations began in Geneva between Iran and the so-called "P5+1," she made a comment about the Iranian negotiating strategy in a Senate committee hearing. She said, "We know that deception is part of the DNA." This caused her some trouble when a number of Iranian officials, including some members of the country's parliament, asked her to apologize. She served as the lead negotiator for the United States in the agreement reached with Iran on July 14, 2015 in Vienna.

On February 27, 2015, Sherman told a conference at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, "The Koreans and Chinese have quarreled with Tokyo over so-called comfort women from World War II. There are disagreements about the content of history books and even the names given to various bodies of water. All this is understandable, but it can also be frustrating."

She continued, "Of course, nationalist feelings can still be exploited, and it's not hard for a political leader anywhere to earn cheap applause by vilifying a former enemy. But such provocations produce paralysis, not progress." Her comments were condemned by South Korea, but an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies said the reaction to Ms Sherman's remarks seemed excessive, and that her comments were in line with US policy.

US asking Pakistan ‘to do more’ once again

The United States has asked Pakistan to take action against all extremist groups ahead of a visit of US Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman to Islamabad. Sherman will be in Pakistan on 7 and 8 October and meet with Pakistani officials.

Sherman is the highest-ranking career diplomat in the State Department as the Secretary of State, who is equivalent to a foreign minister in other countries, is always a political appointee. She is the highest-ranking US visitor to Pakistan under President Joe Biden and since Taliban’s victory in Kabul.

Sherman will be in India on 6 and 7 October where she will meet officials and civil society leaders and address US-India Business Council annual “ideas summit”.

“We seek a strong partnership with Pakistan on counter terrorism and we expect sustained action against all militant and terrorist groups without distinction,” Sherman told reporters.

“Both of our countries have suffered terribly from the scourge of terrorism and we look forward to cooperative efforts to eliminate all regional and global terrorist threats,” she said from Switzerland, her first stop on a trip that will also take her to India and Uzbekistan.

Pakistani Minister Imran Khan, a longtime critic of US military campaigns, has asked the world to engage Taliban and provide economic support.

Sherman praised Pakistan's calls for an inclusive government in Afghanistan. “We look to Pakistan to play a critical role in enabling that outcome,” she said.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi met his US counterpart Antony Blinken in New York on the sidelines of the 76th session of the UN General Assembly. Their talks focused on the current situation in Afghanistan where the Taliban ousted the pro-US Ghani government in mid-August. The takeover followed the withdrawal of US troops from the war-torn country.

The US wants Pakistan to persuade Taliban to include other factions in government, respect human rights, allow women to work and girls to attend school.

Pakistan has assured the international community that it too wants an inclusive government in Kabul and will continue urging Taliban to fulfill the promises they have made to the international community.

Rising suicide trend among US troops

Suicides among US troops rose 15% during 2020 as compared to the earlier year, according to an annual report from the Pentagon released on Thursday. The figures show that 580 US service members died by suicide last year, a nearly 80-person increase from the 504 who committed suicide in 2019.

The figure for 2020 was lower than the 543 suicides in 2018.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called the new numbers "troubling," and said suicide prevention is "a paramount challenge" for the military.

"Suicide rates among our service members and military families are still too high, and the trends are not going in the right direction," Austin said in a statement Thursday. 

"We must redouble our efforts to provide all of our people with the care and the resources they need, to reduce stigmas and barriers to care, and to ensure that our community uses simple safety measures and precautions to reduce the risk of future tragedies."

He added that the Pentagon will "continue to work swiftly and urgently," in collaboration with the Department of Veterans Affairs.

USA Today was the first to report the new statistics before these were made public.

Alaska has been the site of several suicides, according to USA Today, with six suicides in the first five months of the year. The newspaper reported that the Army has spent more than US$200 million in an attempt to improve the quality of life at its bases in the state.

A study released in June this year uncovered that more than 30,000 active-duty personnel and veterans of wars that followed the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks had committed suicide.

That number, the study noted, was almost three times as many service members who were killed in post-9/11 war operations.

Earlier in September 2021 the Department of Veteran Affairs released a report that said veteran suicides in 2019 dropped to its lowest levels observed over the previous 12 years.

Has the game begun to promote Kamala Harris as next President of United States?

Reportedly poll numbers of Vice President Kamala Harris are rising, while numbers of President Joe Biden are falling. Kamala has rebounded in recent weeks, regaining her footing with approval ratings that now stand higher than Biden.

Harris got off to a rocky start at the beginning of the administration, including a botched response on why she hadn’t traveled to the Mexican border, when she said she hadn’t been to Europe either.

But her allies say Harris, whose difficult start provoked questions about her ability to be a future presidential candidate for the party, “has found her place” in the White House. 

“I think there’s definitely a feeling that things have been smoother,” said one ally. “It seems like they have ironed out some of the initial wrinkles.” 

Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, said Harris has “started to solidify her position and strengthen the office, gaining a sense — always difficult for a VP — of what her role should be in the administration.”

“The key will be how those numbers hold as policy controversies continue and politics heats up,” he added.

A Gallup poll last week showed 49% approved of Harris’s job as vice president, 6 points higher than Biden’s 43% approval rating. It’s a significant change for both Biden and Harris. The president fell 6 points since August and 13 points since June. Harris’s current approval rating is the same as Biden’s in 2009, when he served as Barack Obama’s vice president.

The September 22, 2021 Gallup poll — conducted earlier in the month — also revealed that the vice president performed better than Biden with independents, a stunning revelation for a man who was catapulted to the White House because of support from that demographic.

It’s unclear why Harris’s numbers have risen higher than Biden’s in some surveys, though Biden in the last two months has gone through the most difficult phase of his presidency so far. Biden has received bipartisan criticism related to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and has also taken some hits over the prolonged coronavirus pandemic.

The president has also been criticized over his handling of the border and immigration, taking hits from the left and the right over an influx of migrants from Haiti for the last few weeks.

Harris, in contrast, has been more in the background than the foreground on those controversies, though she did win headlines for criticizing the way some Haitian migrants were being treated by border agents.

Most Democratic strategists and observers say Harris hasn’t had a singular moment or two that has boosted her in the public realm. 

“Nothing specific,” said Basil Smikle, the Democratic strategist and former Executive Director of the New York State Democratic Party, when asked if there has been a standout moment for the vice president.

He suggested the White House could actually benefit by doing more with Harris.

Smikle said that while Harris has been accessible, for example by appearing at Howard University’s homecoming, “the White House could bring her in more closely — as other administrations have — but they seem to keep her at a little distance, which may have been helpful to her in the long run.”

Other strategists say Harris has benefitted from Republicans setting their sights on Biden in recent weeks. They have portrayed him as weak on the border and Afghanistan.

“My instinct is to say that so much fire has been aimed at Biden, Harris’s numbers have gone up by sheer virtue of being out of the spotlight,” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer added. “She’s not giving anyone fresh reason to dislike her, so her polling numbers revert to the mean, with the country about evenly divided on the Black woman in the No. 2 spot.”

But Harris has appeared to settle into more of a role in her vice presidency. Last week, she hosted the leaders of Zambia, Ghana and India separately. On Wednesday, she hosted a meeting with five Latino small-business leaders.

Harris has been increasingly active politically too, giving a forceful speech for Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), fundraising for Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe and attending an event at George Mason University for National Voter Registration Day. 

To be sure, Harris’s polling numbers are not spectacular. The same Gallup poll that showed her with a 49% approval rating showed she had a 49% disapproval rating. Other polls in the last month also show her with support in the low or mid-40s, though some polls in August had her hovering in the mid- to high 30s. 

Not everything has gone to plan for Harris either. Aides and allies grew frustrated last week after she was scheduled for an in-studio interview on “The View,” but two of the hosts were pulled from the set after they tested positive for COVID-19. 

Harris conducted the interview virtually as a precaution, even though she had flown from Washington to New York for the program. The hosts subsequently tested negative, and the tests were ruled a false positive. 

The Harris ally called the incident “unfortunate” while saying Harris needs to continue to up her national stature for her own political prospects. 

“I think we’re all happy to see her settle into her role and find her bearings, but I think even she knows she has a long way to go,” the ally said

Countering drug trade in Afghanistan

According to reports, Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) urged President Joe Biden administration on Wednesday to provide a plan on how it will counter the illicit narcotics trade in Afghanistan. 

Jordan asked the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) if the administration has a strategy in place to address Afghanistan's opium and heroin trade in light of the Taliban’s takeover of the country.

“The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan due to President Biden’s reckless and chaotic withdrawal has created a power vacuum that has emboldened terrorist groups and threatened our vital national security interests. It has also led to the Taliban seizing control of the illicit drug trade in Afghanistan that will help to finance its terror activities,” Jordan said.

The Republican congressman cited a July report from the ONDCP that said more than 80 percent of the global heroin supply originates in Afghanistan and that poppy cultivation increased in 2020, following a two-year decline. 

The Taliban said in August it would ban the production of opium poppies after years of profiting from it.

“To date, President Biden has not yet established a comprehensive counternarcotics strategy to tackle our country’s drug crisis. This failure is particularly concerning in light of the Biden border crisis and the surge of illegal alien encounters at the southwest border,” Jordan said.

He also asked if ONDCP meets with the State Department’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, the Defense Department, and the Drug Enforcement Administration about drug eradication efforts, seizing illicit narcotics in transit, or deterring access to drug trafficking routes.

He questioned if ONDCP also works with those entities to enhance the capacity to stop the flow of illicit narcotics leaving Afghanistan and if programs the US had with Afghanistan to counter the drug trade have been terminated with the Taliban’s takeover.

Jordan requested answers from Regina LaBelle, acting director of ONDCP, by October 13, 2021. 

The July report from the ONDCP found that 90 percent of heroin seized and tested in the US originates from Mexico, despite the majority of the global supply originating in Afghanistan. The White House released the ONDCP report in July, prior to the fall of Afghanistan, and touted that President Biden’s budget request calls for US$10.7 billion in investments for populations at greatest risk or overdose and substance abuse.

Pakistan facing repercussions of “Absolutely Not”

On Wednesday the benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange lost about 2% (908 points). The fall has been attributed to a bill being moved in the US senate. Foreign Office spokesperson Asim Iftikhar Ahmad said that "unwarranted" references to Pakistan in a bill that was recently introduced in the United States Senate was "inconsistent" with the spirit of cooperation that had existed between the two countries on Afghanistan since 2001.

"We see that a debate is under way in Washington both in the media and on Capitol Hill to reflect on and examine the circumstances leading to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The draft legislation introduced in the US Senate by a group of Senate Republicans seems to be a reaction to this debate," he said in a statement.

However, the references to Pakistan in the bill were "completely unwarranted", he said. Terming those references as "inconsistent in spirit" with Pak-US cooperation on Afghanistan since the American invasion in 2001, he recalled that Pakistan had facilitated the Afghan peace process and helped evacuate citizens of the US and other countries from Afghanistan in August.

Ahmad reiterated that Pakistan had always maintained that there was no military solution to the conflict in Afghanistan. It had also stressed that a coercive approach would not work and the only way to achieve sustainable peace in the war-torn country was through engagement and dialogue, he added.

He noted that sustained security cooperation between Pakistan and the US would "remain critical in dealing with any future terrorist threat in the region".

"Such proposed legislative measures are, therefore, uncalled for and counterproductive," the spokesperson said.

Twenty-two US senators moved a bill in the Senate on Monday that seeks to assess Pakistan's alleged role in Afghanistan before and after the fall of Kabul and in the Taliban offensive in Panjshir Valley.

Senator Jim Risch, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and other Republicans introduced the Afghanistan Counterterrorism, Oversight, and Accountability Act to address outstanding issues related to the Biden administration's "rushed and disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan".

The proposed legislation calls for a comprehensive report on who supported the Taliban during America's 20 years in Afghanistan, helped the group in capturing Kabul in mid-August and supported their offensive on Panjshir Valley.

The first report shall include "an assessment of support by state and non-state actors, including the government of Pakistan, for the Taliban between 2001 and 2020", including the provision of sanctuary space, financial support, intelligence support, logistics and medical support, training, equipping, and tactical, operation or strategic direction, according to the bill.

The legislation also requires "an assessment of support by state and non-state actors, including the government of Pakistan, for the September 2021 offensive of the Taliban against the Panjshir Valley and the Afghan resistance".

The proposed bill also seeks to impose sanctions on the Taliban and others in Afghanistan for terrorism, drug-trafficking, and human rights abuses, as well as on those providing support to the Taliban, including foreign governments.

It states that the US should not recognize any member of the Taliban as the ambassador of Afghanistan to the United States or as the ambassador of Afghanistan to the United Nations, and places restrictions on non-humanitarian foreign assistance to the war-torn country.

It also calls for a comprehensive review of foreign assistance to entities that support the Taliban.

Top US generals contradict President Joe Biden

Top US military officials told lawmakers on Tuesday that they had recommended 2,500 US troops remain in Afghanistan, contradicting comments made by President Joe Biden earlier this year.

Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of US Central Command, and Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, each acknowledged during public congressional testimony that they agreed with the recommendation of Army Gen. Austin Miller that 2,500 troops be left in the country, though they denied to detail what they advised Biden directly.

Biden announced his decision to end US military involvement in Afghanistan back in April.

“I won’t share my personal recommendation to the president, but I will give you my honest opinion, and my honest opinion and view shaped my recommendation. I recommended that we maintain 2,500 troops in Afghanistan. And I also recommended earlier in the fall of 2020 that we maintain 4,500 at that time. Those are my personal views,” McKenzie told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday under questioning from Sen. James Inhofe (Okla.), the panel’s top Republican.

McKenzie said it had been his view that the full US withdrawal would lead to the collapse of Afghan forces and government.

Milley said he agreed with that assessment and that it was his personal view dating back to last fall that the US should maintain at least 2,500 troops in Afghanistan to move toward a peace agreement between the Taliban and Afghan government. Milley declined to comment directly on his specific discussions with Biden when questioned by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.).

Asked whether Miller discussed his recommendation with Biden, McKenzie told lawmakers he believed his opinion “was well-heard.”

Republican lawmakers repeatedly raised the matter in the context of an interview Biden gave to ABC News in August during which he denied that his top military commanders recommended he leave 2,500 troops in Afghanistan.

“Your top military advisers warned against withdrawing on this timeline. They wanted you to keep about 2,500 troops,” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos said to Biden in the interview.

“No, they didn't,” Biden replied. “It was split. That wasn't true.”

“Your military advisers did not tell you, ‘No, we should just keep 2,500 troops. It's been a stable situation for the last several years. We can do that. We can continue to do that’?” Stephanopoulos later pressed.

“No one said that to me that I can recall,” Biden replied.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki tweeted Tuesday afternoon that leaving 2,500 troops in Afghanistan would have escalated the conflict due to the Trump administration’s deal with the Taliban to withdraw.

“As @POTUS told ABC, ending the war in Afghanistan was in our national interest. He said advice was split, but consensus of top military advisors was 2500 troops staying meant escalation due to deal by the previous admin. @SecDef, the Chairman, and GEN McKenzie all reiterated,” Psaki tweeted.

Psaki further defended Biden's past comments during an afternoon press briefing, saying he was given a range of advice and that remaining in Afghanistan would have necessitated a further troop increase while risking lives of US service members. 

“The president is always going to welcome a range of advice. He asks for candor. He asks for directness. And in any scenario he’s not looking for a bunch of 'yes' men and women,” Psaki told reporters, adding that it is up to Biden to ultimately decide “what's in the best interest of the United States.”

Milley said during the hearing that the US would have been back at war with the Taliban if forces had stayed beyond August 31, 2021.

Military generals unanimously recommended that Biden stick to the August 31 withdrawal date on August 25, Milley said, when Biden was considering extending the deadline to accommodate the evacuation mission.

Asked about the ABC News exchange on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called Biden an “honest and forthright man.”

“Their input was received by the president and considered by the president, for sure,” Austin told Cotton when asked if Biden’s statement to ABC was true. “In terms of what they specifically recommended, senator, as they just said, they’re not going to provide what they recommended in confidence.”

Later during the hearing, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) grilled the witnesses on whether Biden made a false statement in the interview.

“That was a false statement, by the president of the United States, was it not?” Sullivan asked.

“I didn’t even see the statement, to tell you the truth,” Milley replied, adding, “I’m not going to characterize a statement of the president of the United States.”

In April, Biden ordered the full US military withdrawal from Afghanistan by September 11, 2021. US forces completed the withdrawal by August 31, capping a chaotic exit and evacuation mission from the war-torn country after the Taliban gained control of Kabul earlier the same month.

Miller appeared before lawmakers for classified testimony earlier this month. Tuesday's hearing was the first time that top military officials have testified publicly since the August withdrawal.

Investors getting jittery

USD traded sharply higher against all of the major currencies on Tuesday as Treasury yields surged and stocks plummeted. With several factors driving investors out of risk assets, FX traders need to beware of the possibility of risk aversion intensifying over the next few days. From surging commodity prices, the prospect of tighter monetary policies, risk of the US government shutdown and even a credit default, there are plenty of reasons to be worried.  

The cost of natural gas is skyrocketing and the increase is spilling over to oil. In the last 2 days, natural gas prices rose more than 10% and in the past year, it is up 180%. Heading into the cooler fall and winter months, households will be hit by significantly more expensive heating bills. The energy crisis is so severe that in countries like the UK and China, there have been forced blackouts and factory shutdowns.  In some Chinese provinces, traffic lights have been turned off. 

Aside from having a direct impact on pocketbooks, higher natural gas and oil prices is also a problem for inflation. In comments made today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that “it’s fair to say that” inflation is broader, more structural and more concerning than earlier this year. More specifically he said supply chain constraints like shortages of chips “have not only not gotten better – they’ve actually gotten worse.” Stickier inflation increases the need for less accommodation, which is positive for rates, negative for stocks and risk currencies. Considering that no one expects the energy crisis or supply chain bottlenecks to be resolved quickly, risk aversion could intensify, leading to demand for USD, JPY and Swiss Franc.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the government would not be able to make all of their payments if the debt ceiling is not raised by October 18th.  Companies like JPMorgan said they have begun preparing for a potential US credit default. Although it is very unlikely, if that happens the consequences for the markets would be brief but significant. Equities and currencies would fall sharply.

The government’s current funding expires on October 1st and lawmakers are rushing to pass legislation that would avoid a partial shutdown. There’s a lot going on in Washington this week and the battle on Capitol Hill is hurting and not helping risk appetite.  Consumer confidence weakened in September and given recent developments, we expect further deterioration this month.

With no major economic reports on the calendar on Wednesday, equities and Treasuries will drive currency flows. The Bank of England and Reserve Bank of New Zealand may be two of the least dovish central banks but their currencies have been hit the hardest by risk aversion.

The UK is dealing with its own petrol crisis worsened by driver shortage. EUR remains the most resilient, experiencing only modest losses due to euro’s low yield. Risk aversion is normally negative for USD/JPY but 10 year Treasury yields which rose to its highest level since June is having greater influence on USD flows.

Israel trying to buy out loyalty of Jordan

Israeli Channel 12 reported that Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has secretly met with King Abdullah of Jordan as Prime Minister Naftali Bennett embarked for New York where he was expected to meet with Bahraini and UAE ministers and speak at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). 

Bennett and President Isaac Herzog have also met with King Abdullah, in what is seen as a series of overtures to repair Israel's relationship with the Hashemite Kingdom that had become strained under former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure.

Lapid and King Abdullah discussed the tensions in Jerusalem, including around the Temple Mount, known to Muslims as al-Haram al-Sharif. The two men also spoke of ways to improve ties between Israel and Jordan, acceding to Channel 12.

It added that the Biden administration received a report of the visit.

Bennett's government has also signed a major water deal with the Hashemite Kingdom that almost doubled the amount of water Israel sends to Jordan. It also agreed to allow Jordan to increase its exports to Palestinian areas of the West Bank.

Israel's longest border is with Jordan and the stability of it is vital for Israel's security. 

Anti Iran stance of Bennett can’t make him true successor of Netanyahu

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett addressed the UN General Assembly for the first time, barely 100 days after he was sworn in, ending Benjamin Netanyahu's more than decade-long premiership. 

"For way too long, Israel was defined by wars with our neighbors," Bennett said in his address. "But this is not what Israel is about. This is not what the people of Israel are about. Israelis don’t wake up in the morning thinking about the conflict. Israelis want to lead a good life, take care of our families, and build a better world for our children."

Bennett warned the assembly that two problems – the coronavirus and political polarization – were "challenging the very fabric of society at this moment" and has the ability to "paralyze nations." 

“Israel had rejected polarization by forming the government he leads, what started as a political accident can now turn into a purpose," Bennett said. "And that purpose is unity. Today we sit together, around one table. We speak to each other with respect, we act with decency, and we carry a message: Things can be different."

As for the pandemic, Bennett said Israel had successfully developed a model for managing it by rejecting lockdowns and embracing booster shots. "Lockdowns, restrictions, quarantines – cannot work in the long run," he said. The government's decision to begin providing booster shots was a tough one, given the fact that the US Food and Drug Administration hadn't approved them, but it ultimately paid off, Bennett stated, saying that Israel "pioneered the booster shot."

Turning to the issue of Iran, Bennett blamed Tehran for funding, training and arming groups that "seek to dominate the Middle East and spread radical Islam across the world," as well as to destroy Israel. Furthermore, he said, Iran is trying to dominate the region by stretching its presence into Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza, and "every place Iran touches – fails."

Bennett also warned that Iran's nuclear weapons program had "hit a watershed moment, and so has our patience," saying that Tehran has crossed all red lines and ignored international inspections. "Words do not stop centrifuges from spinning," he said.

Bennett took the opportunity to criticize countries that took part in a commemoration marking the 20th anniversary of the adoption of the Durban Declaration and Program of Action.

"And to those countries who chose to participate in this farce, I say', Attacking Israel doesn’t make you morally superior, fighting the only democracy in the Middle East doesn’t make you "woke", adopting clichés about Israel without bothering to learn the basic facts, well, that's just plain lazy," he said.

The prime minister did not address the Palestinian issue after last week’s UN speech by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who delivered a one-year ultimatum to Israel to withdraw to pre-1967 borders.

Netanyahu’s Likud party quickly issued a statement criticizing Bennett’s speech and extolling his predecessor. “Netanyahu's speeches at the UN made waves all around the world and brought Israel's political interests to the forefront of international attention,” read the statement. “Unlike him, Bennett gave an empty speech in front of an empty hall and wasted empty words, instead of taking advantage of an important international platform.” 

The Palestinian ambassador to the UN, Riyad Mansour, told Palestinian radio station Ashams that Bennett had ignored not just the Palestinians, but also the international community, in his speech. "We will act on all fronts, especially the Security Council and the International Criminal Court and all the countries of the world, but the anchor will be the Palestinian people's unity and its hold on its land," he said. "The world remembers well what happened in May in the lands of Palestine," including within Israel's pre-1967 borders, Mansour added, referring to Jewish-Arab violence and rioting earlier this year during a military confrontation between Israel and Hamas.

Any attack by Israel on Lebanon will be met with a response, says Qassem

Any attack by Israel on Lebanon will be met with a response from Hezbollah, said Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem on Friday evening, according to Palestinian media.

"Any Israeli attack on Lebanon will be met with a response from Hezbollah. Even if [Lebanon] is dragged into a war, we will face the war. Our weapons are locked and loaded. If we need more, we have our ways to rearm ourselves," he said, according to reports on Twitter.

“We are waiting for the Lebanese government’s position on the indirect negotiations with [the Israeli enemy] regarding the border issue, and when our turn arrives, we will do our duty,” he said. 

"We will continue to bring oil as long as Lebanon’s central bank and Lebanese fuel companies do not supply Lebanon’s oil/fuel needs," he added.

Qassem's statement came in the backdrop of Lebanese President Michelle Aoun's speech at the United Nations General Assembly earlier on Friday.

In his speech, Aoun called for a resumption of the indirect talks on Lebanon's maritime dispute with Israel. 

"We remain gravely concerned at Israel's repeated threats against Lebanon and, more recently, Israel's plans to carry out oil and gas exploration activities along the contested maritime border," he said.

"We condemn any and all attempts to violate the limits of our exclusive economic zone and we maintain our right to the oil and gas found within that zone," he said. 

"Lebanon demands the resumption of indirect negotiations on the demarcation of the southern maritime borders in line with international law," Aoun said. "We will not relinquish or compromise on our border claims and it is the role of the international community to stand with us."

Israel and Lebanon began US-mediated negotiations regarding their maritime border in October 2020, which were the first talks between the countries in 30 years. The two Middle East neighbors hoped that settling the border dispute would encourage further gas exploration in the area.

Israel already pumps significant amounts of gas from the Mediterranean, but Lebanon has yet to do so.

The Lebanese delegation at the time faced significant pressure from Hezbollah to abandon the negotiations.

After four rounds of talks, negotiations stopped in November. Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz accused Lebanon of changing its position seven times, presenting “positions that add up to a provocation.”

Aoun's remarks came two weeks after a new Lebanese government was sworn in, ending a 13-month long political crisis that began after a devastating blast destroying the Beirut port on August 4, 2020.

Qassem's statement may be an attempt to signal to the Lebanese people that despite Aoun's condemnation of Israel's actions, Hezbollah still sees itself as the true defender of Lebanon.