Pakistan facing repercussions of “Absolutely Not”

On Wednesday the benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange lost about 2% (908 points). The fall has been attributed to a bill being moved in the US senate. Foreign Office spokesperson Asim Iftikhar Ahmad said that "unwarranted" references to Pakistan in a bill that was recently introduced in the United States Senate was "inconsistent" with the spirit of cooperation that had existed between the two countries on Afghanistan since 2001.

"We see that a debate is under way in Washington both in the media and on Capitol Hill to reflect on and examine the circumstances leading to the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The draft legislation introduced in the US Senate by a group of Senate Republicans seems to be a reaction to this debate," he said in a statement.

However, the references to Pakistan in the bill were "completely unwarranted", he said. Terming those references as "inconsistent in spirit" with Pak-US cooperation on Afghanistan since the American invasion in 2001, he recalled that Pakistan had facilitated the Afghan peace process and helped evacuate citizens of the US and other countries from Afghanistan in August.

Ahmad reiterated that Pakistan had always maintained that there was no military solution to the conflict in Afghanistan. It had also stressed that a coercive approach would not work and the only way to achieve sustainable peace in the war-torn country was through engagement and dialogue, he added.

He noted that sustained security cooperation between Pakistan and the US would "remain critical in dealing with any future terrorist threat in the region".

"Such proposed legislative measures are, therefore, uncalled for and counterproductive," the spokesperson said.

Twenty-two US senators moved a bill in the Senate on Monday that seeks to assess Pakistan's alleged role in Afghanistan before and after the fall of Kabul and in the Taliban offensive in Panjshir Valley.

Senator Jim Risch, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and other Republicans introduced the Afghanistan Counterterrorism, Oversight, and Accountability Act to address outstanding issues related to the Biden administration's "rushed and disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan".

The proposed legislation calls for a comprehensive report on who supported the Taliban during America's 20 years in Afghanistan, helped the group in capturing Kabul in mid-August and supported their offensive on Panjshir Valley.

The first report shall include "an assessment of support by state and non-state actors, including the government of Pakistan, for the Taliban between 2001 and 2020", including the provision of sanctuary space, financial support, intelligence support, logistics and medical support, training, equipping, and tactical, operation or strategic direction, according to the bill.

The legislation also requires "an assessment of support by state and non-state actors, including the government of Pakistan, for the September 2021 offensive of the Taliban against the Panjshir Valley and the Afghan resistance".

The proposed bill also seeks to impose sanctions on the Taliban and others in Afghanistan for terrorism, drug-trafficking, and human rights abuses, as well as on those providing support to the Taliban, including foreign governments.

It states that the US should not recognize any member of the Taliban as the ambassador of Afghanistan to the United States or as the ambassador of Afghanistan to the United Nations, and places restrictions on non-humanitarian foreign assistance to the war-torn country.

It also calls for a comprehensive review of foreign assistance to entities that support the Taliban.

Time for mending US Pakistan relationship

It is becoming visible that the US administration has already started applying undue pressure on Pakistan. The Foreign Secretary is scheduled to visit Pakistan during first week of September. In the past the US mantra was ‘do more’, which is likely to get louder as the newly elected government has taken charge.

The first evidence came when the US issued instructions to the IMF to be more cautious in lending money to Pakistan. Ironically this announcement came without taking into account many ifs and buts. The recent handout of the US administration further spoiled the already deteriorating relationship. It has therefore become imperative for the US administration to revisit its foreign policy towards Pakistan.

Let it be clearly understood by the US administration that the public pressure on the government has been on the rise to bid farewell to the US proxy war in Afghanistan. The masses now openly ask the reasons for the presence of thousands of troops in Afghanistan, the US had announced to pull out its troops from Afghanistan by 2014. Even at that time I had written a blog that troops will stay in Afghanistan forever and the prediction came true as the number of troops has increased rather than reducing.

I had also written that the US has lost war in Korea and Vietnam in the past and was on losing spree in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. The US must accept its defeat in Afghanistan and pull out its troops immediately. The newspaper reports indicate that more and more area of Afghanistan is being recaptured by anti US fighters, enjoying the support of local population. The control of Afghan regime that shrank to Kabul is now shrinking to Presidential Palace only.

Many geopolitical analysts have the consensus that after the decision to pull troops the US administration is getting jittery about the safety of its soldiers as well as military hardware. It can’t be ruled out that the anti-US forces may allow evacuation of troops in exchange for military hardware. The hardware that was accumulated in Afghanistan in more than four decades can’t be moved out in weeks or months. The US had used Pakistan backed fighters in repulsing USSR troops and again expects Pakistan to provide a shield as the retreat of troops and military hardware starts.

The analysts fear that retreat may not be as easy as being perceived by the US administration. I am sure that the US administration is fully cognizant of the fact the Anti US fighters are now backed by global and regional super powers and all of them would not like to miss the opportunity to settle their accounts. The real issue is that the US troops can’t move an inch without the local support as they are not familiar with the terrain. This inadequacy was one of the prime factors of the US defeat in Korea.

Establishing peace in Afghanistan is as not as easy as being perceived by the US administration. The presence of local war lords and fighters supported by the US troops make the jigsaw puzzle more complicated. One of solutions, which may not be acceptable to the US administration, is destruction of all the US owned military hardware in Afghanistan. However, it creates a situation chicken or egg first.

For the safe exit of the US troops and avoid anarchy/civil war after the departure of US troops, the US must consider destruction of military hardware. It is also suggested that Pakistan should not get involved in any adventure. The US has started the war in Afghanistan and it will have to ensure peace after the withdrawal of its troops. Trillions of US dollars, tax payers’ money, have been wasted in four decades. If the British crown can let its colonies get independence why can’t the US accept it defeat and pull out troops from Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria?