ICC prosecutor announces formal investigation into Israeli war crimes

International Criminal Court Prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda announced on Wednesday that she is opening a full war crimes probe against Israel and the Hamas terrorist group in the Gaza Strip. "The decision to open an investigation followed a painstaking preliminary examination undertaken by my office that lasted close to five years," Prosecutor Bensouda said in a statement.

"In the end, our central concern must be for the victims of crimes, both Palestinian and Israeli, arising from the long cycle of violence and insecurity that has caused deep suffering and despair on all sides," she added. "My office will take the same principled, non-partisan, approach that it has adopted in all situations over which its jurisdiction is seized."

"This is a long-awaited step that serves Palestine’s tireless pursuit of justice and accountability, which are indispensable pillars of the peace the Palestinian people seek and deserve," the PA foreign ministry said in a statement. 

Israeli Foreign Minister says ICC war crimes probe in Palestinian territories is 'an act of moral and legal bankruptcy.'

Bensouda's announcement comes less than a month after a February decision by the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber recognizing a State of Palestine and authorizing her to move forward.

The probe is expected to cover the 2014 Gaza War, the 2018 Gaza border crisis and the Israeli settlement enterprise in the West Bank as well as Hamas' rocket attacks against Israeli civilians.

War crimes suits could be leveled at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, defense ministers and any other high-level officials involved in such activity since 13th June 2014. Soldiers and commanders could also be targeted.

"The investigation will cover crimes within the jurisdiction of the Court that are alleged to have been committed in the Situation since 13 June 2014, the date to which reference is made in the Referral of the Situation to my Office," chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda said in a statement released on Wednesday.

Bensouda said that the investigation "will be conducted independently, impartially and objectively, without fear or favour." She said that the decision to open an investigation followed a painstaking preliminary examination undertaken by her office that lasted close to five years.

"Having assessed submissions from states, international organizations and other stakeholders, the Chamber was otherwise unanimous in its view that Palestine is a State Party to the Rome Statute. The majority also ruled that Palestine's referral of the Situation obliged the Office to open an investigation, the Office having determined that there existed a reasonable basis to do so in accordance with the Rome Statute criteria," she wrote in a statement.

Bensouda called on Palestinian and Israeli victims and affected communities to be patient.

"The ICC is not a panacea, but only seeks to discharge the responsibility that the international community has entrusted to it, which is to promote accountability for Rome Statute crimes, regardless of the perpetrator, in an effort to deter such crimes," she wrote. "In meeting this responsibility, the Office focuses its attention on the most notorious alleged offenders or those alleged to be the most responsible for the commission of the crimes."

Her primary concern, she wrote, "must be for the victims of crimes, both Palestinian and Israeli, arising from the long cycle of violence and insecurity that has caused deep suffering and despair on all sides."

Bensouda's decision comes only a few weeks after her successor, Karim Khan, was announced to take her place starting in June.

The news will be another blow to Israel, where officials had hoped Bensouda would leave the decision of how to proceed to her successor and that he might be more sympathetic to Israel's many claims against the ICC's jurisdiction.

On Tuesday, Defense Minister and Acting Justice Minister Benny Gantz alarmed government officials when he warned that hundreds of Israelis could be subject – in the near future – to war crimes probes by the International Criminal Court.

Gantz called that “an estimate,” declining to say that Israel had drawn up a list of officials likely to be investigated. Israel will provide legal assistance to any targeted Israelis and will give them advice regarding travel abroad if necessary, Gantz said.

Balkees Jarrah, associate international justice director for the left-wing NGO Human Rights Watch, stated: "The ICC prosecutor’s decision to open a Palestine investigation moves Israeli and Palestinian victims of serious crimes one step closer to obtaining a measure of justice that has for too long eluded them. 

"The court’s crowded docket shouldn’t deter the prosecutor’s office from doggedly pursuing cases against anyone credibly implicated in such crimes. 

"All eyes will also be on the next prosecutor Karim Khan to pick up the baton and expeditiously move forward while demonstrating firm independence in seeking to hold even the most powerful to account. ICC member countries should stand ready to fiercely protect the court’s work from any political pressure," he added.

OPEC and allies likely to raise output

Crude oil futures rallied in the Asian session before paring gains as the European session progressed as traders look ahead to the OPEC+ meeting this week. OPEC and allies meeting is scheduled on 4th March 2021 with market participants looking at likely easing of output constraints.

Going into the meeting, analysts note that global inventories are falling at their fastest rate in two decades. Clearly with the ongoing demand uncertainty there is a risk that OPEC over tightens by maintaining output curbs for too long. The risk is now one of keeping too much oil on the side lines and not pumping enough, which will drive prices sharply higher. Goldman Sachs says Brent will hit US$75 this year.

Thirteen OPEC members pumped 24.89 million barrels per day (bpd) during February 2021, down 870,000 bpd from January 2021 in the first monthly decline since June 2020. In February the largest supply cut came from Saudi Arabia, which pledged an additional, voluntary one million bpd production cut for February and March. As a result, compliance with pledged cuts stood at 121% in February, up from 103% in January.

Current output constraints stand at a little over 7 million bpd, with the 23-country OPEC+ likely to agree to reduce this by another 500,000 bpd from April on Thursday. In addition, it’s likely Saudi Arabia will confirm the additional one million bpd it removed from the market will return in April. This would bring an additional 1.5 million bpd on stream, but even this may not be enough to satisfy the demand. 

OPEC will be mindful of the IEA report that suggested that inventories could start to climb again in the second quarter due to seasonal factors before drawing down again in the second half of the year.

“The rebalancing of the oil market remains fragile in the early part of 2021 as measures to contain the spread of COVID-19, with its more contagious variants, weigh heavily on the near-term recovery in global oil demand,” the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report said.

“But fresh support has been provided by a more positive economic outlook for the second half of the year, along with a pledge from OPEC+ to hasten the drawdown of surplus oil inventories.” The report added

The spread on Brent futures contracts points to significant short-term supply shortage. Six-month spreads are above US$3, while the December contract trades about US$4 below the May contract as the front months are commanding a significant premium over back months, a situation known as backwardation. This implies bullish positioning and tight supplies. Analysts also see similar levels of backwardation on WTI futures, with the April contract trading about US$4 above December contract.

OPEC should be mindful of US shale producers, albeit the conditions for a sharp recovery in output are not what they once were. Nevertheless, OPEC+ could, by keeping output too tight, create conditions for a sharp acceleration in prices that see rivals deliver more. 

Baker Hughes said oil and gas producers added rigs for a 7th straight month for the first time since May 2018, although the rate of growth slowed as the Texas deep freeze hit. The less OPEC does to return the production cut last year the quicker these numbers should rise.

United States backed militants looting 140,000 barrels per day of Syrian oil

Reportedly, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militant group supported by the United States, is stealing around 140,000 barrels of crude oil on a daily basis from oil fields in Syria’s northeastern province of Hasakah.

Lately, Ghassan Halim Khalil, Governor of Hasakah, announced the grim news in an interview with the Lebanese al-Akhbar newspaper, adding that Syrian oil is being plundered by the SDF militants in various ways, all with the participation and support of the US troops deployed in the region.

He stressed that precise intelligence collected and received show that the US-backed militants use tanker trucks from Taramish area in the vicinity of Tigris and in al-Malikiyah to smuggle the Syrian oil to neighboring Iraq.

Khalil further noted that many tanker trucks pass through the illegal al-Mahmoudiyah crossing into Iraq every day, adding that the SDF militants also regularly send stolen oil to their controlled areas in Syria.

The Syrian Governor also revealed that the US forces have ordered the SDF militants not to allow the Damascus-controlled areas receive oil.

Khalil added that while the Syrian people are suffering from the cold weather and hunger, these US-supported militants plunder Syria's national oil resources.

The US looting of Syrian oil was first confirmed during a Senate hearing exchange between South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and then US secretary of state Mike Pompeo in July 2020.

During his testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Pompeo confirmed for the first time that an American oil company would begin work in northeastern Syria, which is controlled by the SDF, which is an alliance of Kurdish militants operating against Damascus and currently controls areas in northern and eastern Syria.

The Syrian government denounced, in the strongest terms, the agreement inked to plunder the country's natural resources, including Syrian oil and gas under the sponsorship and support of the administration of former US President Donald Trump.

Since late October 2019, the US has been redeploying soldiers to the SDF-controlled oil fields in eastern Syria, in a reversal of Trump’s earlier order to withdraw all troops from the war-torn country.

The Pentagon claims that the move aims to protect the fields and facilities from possible attacks by the Daesh terrorists, while Trump openly said that the US seeks economic interests in controlling the oil fields.

A US-led military coalition has been pounding what it claimed was the positions of Daesh inside Syria since September 2014 without any authorization from the Damascus government or a UN mandate. The strikes have on many occasions resulted in civilian casualties and failed to fulfill their declared aim of countering terrorism.

Resolution against Iran at IAEA will disrupt the situation, says Zarif

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iranian Foreign Minister, on Monday warned the three European parties to the 2015 nuclear deal that a resolution against Iran by the IAEA Board of Governors would disrupt the current conditions, reports Tasnim news agency.

Speaking to reporters after a meeting with members of the Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Zarif warned of agitation in case the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board issues a statement against Iran over its decision to suspend the voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol of the NPT.

“The Europeans (UK, France, and Germany) have begun a wrong move at the Board of Governors with the backing of the United States. We believe such an action would upset the conditions,” Zarif noted.

He also stressed that Iran’s ambassador to the Vienna-based international organizations has already warned the Board of Governors about the consequences of confusing the status quo.
 
“We hope wisdom would prevail, otherwise, we would have (other) approaches,” Zarif warned.

Speaking at the parliamentary meeting, Zarif also said the US has no right to return to the JCPOA – the official name for the 2105 nuclear deal- until it recommits itself to its obligations.

In accordance with the Iranian Parliament’s legislation on lifting sanctions, Iran has halted the voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol because the signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal have failed to fulfill their commitments.

Following last week’s visit to Tehran by the IAEA Director General, Tehran and the UN nuclear watchdog issued a joint statement, declaring that Iran will stop its voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol and will deny IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear facilities beyond the Safeguards Agreement as of 23rd February 2021, for three months.

According to Reuters, Britain, France and Germany have draft a US-backed resolution at the IAEA’s Board to criticize Iran for limiting cooperation with the Agency, despite Russian and Iranian warnings of serious consequences,.

The IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors is holding a quarterly meeting this week against the backdrop of faltering efforts to revive Iran’s nuclear deal with major powers now that US President Joe Biden is in office.

Iran scaled back its cooperation with the IAEA last week, ending extra inspection and monitoring measures introduced under the deal, including the power given to the IAEA to carry out snap inspections at facilities that have not been declared to be related to nuclear energy. Tehran’s move is a response to the US withdrawal from the deal in 2018 and the re-imposition of sanctions that had been lifted under it.

The European trio (E3), all parties to the 2015 nuclear deal, circulated a draft resolution for the Vienna meeting voicing “serious concern” at Iran’s reduction of transparency and urging Iran to reverse its steps.

Iran has warned to cancel a deal struck a week ago with the IAEA to temporarily continue many of the monitoring measures it had decided to end - a black box type arrangement valid for up to three months and aimed at creating a window for diplomacy.

Iran said on Sunday it would not take up a proposal by European Union Foreign Policy Chief, Josep Borrell to hold an informal meeting with the United States.

It is unclear how many countries would support a resolution. Moreover, Russia warned that a resolution could hurt efforts to revive the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and that it would oppose it.
 
“Adoption of the resolution will not help the political process of returning to the normal comprehensive implementation of the JCPOA,” Russia’s note to other member states said.

“On the contrary it will hugely complicate those efforts undermining the prospects for the restoration of the JCPOA and for normal cooperation between Iran and the Agency,” it added. 

Israel designates PFLP international branch as a terrorist organization,

As part of the campaign against the Palestinian Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and its global organizational infrastructure, Defense Minister of Israel, Benny Gantz has signed an order designating the Samidoun organization, which acts abroad on the group’s behalf, as a terrorist organization.

According to a Defense Ministry press release, representatives of the organization are active in many countries in Europe and North America.

The Samidoun Palestinian Prisoner Solidarity organization, also known as Samidoun (Arabic for holding ground), was designated as a terrorist organization because it is part of the PFLP. It was founded by members of the front in 2012.

The designation was made following the recommendation of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and the National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing, the Defense Ministry said in a press release.

Representatives of the organization are active in many countries in Europe and North America, led by Khaled Barakat, who is part of the leadership of the PFLP abroad, press release stated.

Barakat is involved with establishing terrorist cells in the West Bank and abroad, the Defense Ministry said. The formal goal of Samidoun is to help Palestinian prisoners secure their release from prison, it said, adding that in practice, it serves as a front for the PFLP abroad.

Samidoun also plays a leading and significant role in the PFLP’s anti-Israel propaganda efforts, fundraising and recruiting of activists, the Defense Ministry said. These activities complement PFLP terrorist attacks against Israel, it said.

Gantz and the defense establishment will continue to take measures to foil terrorist activity and enforce the law against the attempts of the PFLP terrorist organization and its associated bodies to harm the security of Israel, the Defense Ministry said.

What could be likely quantum of Iranian oil exports even if United States eases sanctions?

According to some of the analysts, one of the reasons for lingering imposition of sanctions on Iran by the United States is pressure of large oil producers from the Middle East. Thanks to Israel which has drilled into their minds, “Iran is a bigger threat as compared to Israel”.

As Joe Biden seems adamant at joining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), anti Iran elements have once again started talking about adverse impacts of re-entry of Iran in oil trade.

Fitch Solutions, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, which is one of three biggest credit rating agencies of United States, has forecasted a 6.8% growth in Iranian oil exports in 2021 if the US comes back to the 2015 nuclear deal.

In one of its latest reports dubbed “Iran Oil and Gas Report”, Fitch has stated that crude oil exports of Iran would double in 2022 compared to 2020.

“The prospects for the Iranian oil sector have brightened significantly following Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election, He has indicated re-entry of the US into the Iranian nuclear deal, paving the way for a roll-back of secondary sanctions and recovery of around 2.0 million barrels per day (bpd) in oil production,” the report said.

Fitch also stated that Iranian gas production is also expected to rise in the coming years considering the new developments in the country’s giant South Pars gas field that Iran shares with Qatar in the Persian Gulf.

“However, Iran needs to find new export markets in neighboring countries to maximize the productivity of the new output capacities,” the report reads.

Fitch further mentioned development of the Iranian oil and gas industry’s downstream sectors saying, “The outlook on the downstream is relatively robust, with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) making continued investments to expand and upgrade its refined fuels production, and with a robust demand outlook for both oil and gas as the market recovers from the combined effects of Covid-19 and US nuclear related sanctions.”

Also, the study of the risk index of the upstream sectors of the country’s oil and gas industry in this report shows that, given the huge oil and gas resources, these sectors are reasonable options for investment in the country.

According to the report, Iran ranks fourth among 12 countries in the region in terms of the oil and gas industry’s risk-return index, while the country occupies 20th place among the world’s top 72 oil-producing countries.

Iranian oil production and exports have been both increasing over the past few months despite the US sanctions. Iranian Oil Ministry has announced its readiness for boosting the country’s crude oil output to the pre-sanction levels in case of the US rejoining JCPOA.

Back in January this year, the data from SVB International and two other firms indicated that Iranian oil exports were climbing in January after a boost in the fourth quarter despite US sanctions.

Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia had said earlier that the country started boosting its oil production and would be able to reach pre-sanction levels within two months.

Iranian oil won’t create any surplus in the oil market and the market will be able to accommodate the country’s maximum oil output of around 3.9 million to four million barrels a day, Bloomberg quoted Zamaninia as saying on the sidelines of the Iran Oil Show in Tehran in late January.

 

No alternative to two state solution, says King Abdullah of Jordan

Speaking at the Brookings institute webinar, King Abdullah of Jordan said, “It is time to turn toward conflict resolution not management of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” He urged upon all parties to “focus on the end goal instead of losing ourselves in the process.”

“We owe this to our world” adding “Let us learn from past mistakes and take the higher path of peace.”

He noted that he spoke 19 years ago during the institution’s inaugural event about the need to solve the conflict, which he called the core issue in the Middle East. “You can only imagine the frustration of the people still living in the midst of this protracted conflict, unable to move forward,” the king said.

“Occupation and peace simply cannot coexist,” he continued. “The Palestinian people have a right to an independent, viable and sovereign state on the June 4, 1967, lines, to live alongside Israel in peace and security.”

He declared that there is no alternative to the two-state solution, “and continued unilateral steps will only kill the prospects of peace.”

“Occupation, injustice, despair, apartheid – history has shown us there are no winners in this formula, only losers and tragedy,” King Abdullah said.

“There is an opportunity to build on recent positive developments, and we need to restore hope in the viability of peace and bring our youth closer to a future that for so long has been tantalizingly out of reach – and United States leadership here is essential.”

Jordan, he said, will always be ready to play its part in any effort to re-launch peace negotiations.

He also addressed the regional challenges of COVID-19, saying, “The pandemic has taken away from our focus on fighting terrorism and extremism. Although the battle may be won, the war is not yet over. Rising inequalities and emerging crises caused by the pandemic will fuel the recruitment efforts of ISIS, Boko Haram, Al Shabaab and al- Qaeda.”

Crude oil price caught between Covid and green energy options

Prospects for global oil products markets this year are in flux, with major uncertainties surrounding the pace of vaccination program, rationalization in refining and the adoption of alternative fuels. Most forecasts for products demand and prices have been steadily revised upwards as vaccination programs have got underway and this has created positive market sentiment.

Argus' global head of oil products Stephen Jones told the forum held recently. Any actual demand recovery will depend on how quickly governments lift lockdown measures. One major unknown is how well the vaccines will deal with new variants of Covid-19.

In Europe, major oil products margins to the North Sea crude benchmark coalesced around $5/barrel by the end of January, according to Argus' European oil products editor Elliot Radley. This came in between a third and a half of their five-year averages.

A recovery toward pre-pandemic margin levels could be stimulated by lifting of lockdown measures and by major cuts to European production. Low margins have forced Europe's refiners to begin a phase of rationalization, and almost one million barrel per day of crude distillation capacity is either mothballed, shut down permanently or marked for various conversions to renewable-fuel processing.

European utilization has increased marginally since the second half of 2020, but remains close to 30-year lows, said Radley, with many refineries either offline or operating close to technical minimum rates. This reflects an oversupplied market, and oil product inventories are close to 30-year highs.

The third major uncertainty surrounding is how quickly environmental policies are adopted internationally, said Argus' head of European business development Josefine Ahlstrom. Argus Consulting — a division of Argus Media that provides forecasts and analyses separate and independent of Argus' news and price-assessment business — expects electric vehicles will make up 20% of the European vehicle fleet by 2030 and 50% by 2040. This could reduce gasoline demand by a third by 2030 as compared to 2019 levels.

Diesel demand is likely to be safer because commercial vehicles, which are more likely to retain internal combustion engines, make up a greater share of demand.

The EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) II calls for 14% of transport energy to be renewable by 2030, although this target could be increased as member states aim to meet ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. In the United States, the recent change of presidency could signal a revival of political momentum behind environmental legislation.

Overall, oil products demand is likely to fall slightly, and the share of renewables to increase rapidly.

Will ending war in Afghanistan be ever possible?

Speaking in Kabul on 14th February at the 32nd anniversary of withdrawal of the Soviet Union troops from Afghanistan, President, Ashraf Ghani, made an important distinction. 

The civil war that devastated Afghanistan after the withdrawal was caused not by the departure of Soviet troops, but by the failure to formulate a viable plan for Afghanistan’s future. As the United States intends to pull outs its troops from the country, it should keep in mind that lesson.

After withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan in 1989, the Soviet Union continued to provide financial support to the communist-nationalist regime, led by President Mohammad Najibullah. But, lacking domestic legitimacy, Najibullah’s regime quickly collapsed when Soviet Union withdrew its financial support in 1992, triggering the civil war. In 1996, the Taliban gained control of Kabul and, ultimately, the country.

The Taliban remained in power until 2001, when a US-led invasion—spurred by the 9/11 terrorist attacks—ended its rule. In February 2020, US President Donald Trump’s administration reached a deal with the Taliban intended to end the nearly 20-year-long war. The US and its NATO allies agreed to withdraw all troops by May 2021 if the Taliban fulfilled certain commitments, including cutting ties with terrorist groups and reducing violence.

The Taliban also have to engage in meaningful negotiations with the Afghan government, which was not involved in the deal. The Trump administration apparently hoped that an intra-Afghan peace agreement would materialize by the designated withdrawal date, ending the fighting and minimizing the risk that Afghanistan would become a haven for terrorists.

That hasn’t happened; the number of US troops has been reduced to around 2,000 troops, fighting in Afghanistan hasn’t decreased. On the contrary, a US watchdog agency reports that the Taliban carried out more attacks in the last quarter of 2020 than during the same period in 2019. Moreover, the latest intra-Afghan talks, which began in Doha in September, have produced virtually no results.

It seems that the Taliban’s plan was to keep fighting until US troops left, at which point they might be able to secure a victory in the long war. Now they face another possibility that US troops won’t leave nearly as expected. President Joe Biden’s administration has announced that it is reviewing the deal to determine whether the Taliban is ‘living up to its commitments’.

The Biden administration also has to decide the role NATO allies, which together have substantially more troops in Afghanistan than the US does. Keeping in view the post-Soviet experience, the US has to devise a plan for influencing the situation in Afghanistan and the region after the withdrawal.

The challenge is formidable; Afghanistan is one of the world’s poorest countries. Afghanistan’s state income amounts to little more than a third of what the US pays to sustain its various security forces, to say nothing of US aid to the civilian sector (it amounts to less than half of Europe’s contributions). In fact, Afghanistan has remained depended on outside support to sustain its statehood since Russia and Britain played their ‘Great Game’ in the 19th century.

It seems that the US is leaning towards maintaining some sort of security presence, focused on fighting the terrorists of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, beyond the May deadline, an approach German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has also advocated.

But there are risks. The Taliban could reject this solution, leading to an intensification of fighting and renewed attacks on international forces. Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, is most likely already working to assess this risk.

The Taliban’s acceptance of a continued security presence may depend on progress in the intra-Afghan talks, though no one seems to have a clear vision for a power-sharing agreement. The gap between today’s Afghanistan and the Taliban’s desired Islamic Emirate is wide, and narrowing it will require a recalibration of the diplomatic process concerning Afghanistan.

The regional powers—including Iran, Russia and China—should be engaged in all talks about the country’s future, with one or two also taking a more active role in facilitating the intra-Afghan political dialogue. In this process, managing the dynamics between India and Pakistan, for which developments in Afghanistan hold profound national security implications will undoubtedly emerge as a key challenge. Indeed, at the moment Russia is taking the initiative in this regard.

The pressure in the US and elsewhere to end the ‘forever war’ in Afghanistan is understandable. But, as Ghani has warned, simply withdrawing international forces is unlikely to yield that result. To avoid a new spiral of violence, all stakeholders must first deliberate what may happen after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

Netanyahu terms Iran Nuclear agreement worthless

Israel will not rely on efforts to return to a nuclear deal with Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday. “Israel isn’t pinning its hopes on an agreement with an extremist regime like (Iran),” he said at a memorial service for the 1920 Battle of Tel Hai.

“With or without an agreement, we will do everything so Iran isn’t armed with nuclear weapons,” he added.

Referring to the story of Purim, which begins on Thursday night, Netanyahu said, “2,500 years ago, a Persian oppressor tried to destroy the Jewish people, and just as he failed then, you will fail today… We didn’t make a journey of thousands of years to return to the Land of Israel to allow the delusional ayatollahs’ regime to finish the story of the rebirth of the Jewish People.”

On Monday, Netanyahu met with Defense Minister Benny Gantz, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi, Mossad Director Yossi Cohen, National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat, Ambassador to the US Gilad Erdan and others to discuss Israel’s strategy and response to the Biden administration’s attempted rapprochement with Iran.

The United States is seeking to start a dialogue with Iran and move toward a return to the 2015 Iran deal, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said in a statement with the European countries that were party to the deal. Officials in Washington have called on Iran to return to compliance with the deal before the US would remove sanctions.

Officials in the meeting were split on whether Israel should advocate for the US to stay out of the Iran deal until it can get a better, more-secure agreement, or be more supportive of what US President Joe Biden’s stated plan is, to rejoin the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the 2015 Iran deal is officially called, and then negotiate tougher terms.

Netanyahu reportedly took the first, harder line, while Gantz and Ashkenazi supported a less-confrontational approach.

As indicated by Netanyahu’s remarks, open opposition to a return to the JCPOA is still on the table.

Rejoining “the old nuclear deal of 2015 that paves Iran’s path to an arsenal of nuclear bombs will be a mistake,” Erdan told KAN Reshet Bet on Tuesday.

If the US returns to the JCPOA by lifting sanctions, it won’t have any leverage to convince Iran to reopen negotiations for a stricter deal, he said.

Nevertheless, “a diplomatic solution is always preferable to a military solution,” Erdan said, adding that “the question is whether there will be an agreement that blocks any way Iran can get a nuclear weapon.”

The officials at Monday’s meeting agreed Israel should continue its ongoing dialogue with the Biden administration rather than opt for open confrontation, as it did in former US president Barack Obama’s second term.

Erdan emphasized the importance of dialogue during his interview with KAN Reshet Bet.

“The new US administration has shown a very honest and deep will to hold organized consultations with Israel, led by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan,” he said. “Israel is in a process of full dialogue with the Biden administration and they are listening to our stance – the American government and also central countries in Europe.”

Also Tuesday, the European parties to the JCPOA, known as the E3, said Iran’s decision to block snap inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency was dangerous and a violation of the Iran deal.

The foreign ministers of France, Germany and the UK said they “deeply regret” that Iran suspended what is known as the Additional Protocol of the JCPOA.

“Iran’s actions are a further violation of its commitments under the JCPOA and significantly reduces safeguards oversight by the IAEA,” they said. “The E3 are united in underlining the dangerous nature of this decision.”

The foreign ministers said stopping snap inspections would limit IAEA access to nuclear sites and its ability to monitor Iran’s nuclear program and related activities.

“We urge Iran to stop and reverse all measures that reduce transparency and to ensure full and timely cooperation with the IAEA,” they said.

The foreign ministers said they seek to preserve the JCPOA and negotiate for Iran and the US to return to it.

The JCPOA’s additional protocol said the IAEA could hold short-term inspections in locations that Iran had not declared as nuclear sites.

Iran announced it would stop the inspections on Tuesday, going back on a prior agreement to extend them for three more months. The move was a response to the US not lifting sanctions on the regime.

Israel views the E3 as more open to the Israeli position than in the past due to Iran’s repeated violations of the deal’s limitations, KAN reported.

In recent weeks, Iran announced it would enrich uranium up to 20% and produce uranium metal, which the E3 said has no credible civilian use.

Israel has increased pressure on the E3 to try to talk them out of rejoining the old Iran deal, with many more discussions about Iran than usual, KAN reported.

Saudi Arabia and Russia once again on opposite sides

Saudi Arabia and Russia once again seem to be propagating opposite stance prior to OPEC plus meeting scheduled in March. While Riyadh is publicly urging fellow members to be extremely cautious, Moscow is demanding increase in output.

When OPEC plus gathers on 4th March, it will discuss increasing output in April. There will be two crucial decisions.

First, the group as a whole must choose whether to restore as much as 500,000 barrels a day. Second, Saudi Arabia must decide the fate of one million barrels a day of extra voluntary cuts and clearing surplus inventories even more quickly.

The kingdom initially announced this reduction would be reversed in April, but their latest thinking is fluid and the next move hasn’t been finalized. Offering to maintain some part of this voluntary cut in April could give Riyadh a useful bargaining chip if it’s seeking to limit the group’s overall output increase.

Some easing in production restraint is likely at the March meeting. The real bargaining has yet to start and no decision has been pre-baked.

Having differed over the pace of supply increases at the last two ministerial meetings, public comments from Riyadh and Moscow indicate that another debate looms.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on 14th February that the market was balanced. While he hasn’t publicly expressed a policy preference for the March discussions, Novak argued at the last two OPEC+ meetings for production increases.

Acknowledging his stance might be unpopular; Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned his fellow producers against complacency. The group must recall the scars of last year’s crisis and be extremely cautious in its next move, he said.

This year’s 20% rally in crude prices has been sharp enough for major consumers such as India to complain about the squeeze, and for Wall Street banks and trading houses to predict further gains.

Global inventories are falling very fast and are set to diminish sharply later this year, according to the International Energy Agency. Demand for petroleum products that cater to societies working and consuming at home is booming.

After freezing storms in Texas shuttered as much as 40% of US crude production in the past week, the clamor for barrels from refiners in some regions has grown stronger. There’s also the risk for OPEC plus that, once the weather-related disruption in the shale heartlands abates, high prices would provoke a new flood of supply.

At the same time, inventories remain significantly above average levels and the IEA forecasts they could pile up again next quarter. The supply disruption from the US freeze won’t last long enough to cause a shortage.

Prices are still below the levels most OPEC members need to cover government spending. Saudi Arabia’s one million barrels cut is a gift. If an attempt is made to snatch back this gift, prices would decline only.

Can Russia and China restore balance to JCPOA?

As the United States doubles down on its diplomatic effort to reach a common consensus with Europe on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, pundits raise speculation on how the European Union, particularly EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell, can save the day by setting the stage for Iran and the US to ultimately implement the nuclear deal in full.

These pundits rarely point to the fact that the European signatories to the nuclear deal – Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – have lost the neutrality needed to act as a go-between since Joe Biden won the US presidential election in November. The Europeans are now harboring even more hawkish views than Washington itself.

During the Trump administration, the European parties to the JCPOA – France, Germany and the UK (E3) – had been calling on Iran to fully implement the nuclear deal in the hope that Trump would lose the presidential election and then they will revive the JCPOA in collaboration with a more favorite Democratic administration.

Trump lost the election and was replaced by someone who had played a direct role in negotiating the JCPOA in the first place. But the Europeans were quick to renege on their promise to salvage the nuclear deal. They called for a new negotiation with Iran after Biden assumed office, one that would expand the JCPOA and add other thorny issues such as Iran’s defensive missile program and its regional activities to it.

The top diplomats of the E3 and the US reiterated this position during a recnt joint meeting.

“The E3 welcomed the prospect of a US and Iranian return to compliance with the JCPOA. The E3 and the United States affirmed their determination to then strengthen the JCPOA and, together with regional parties and the wider international community, address broader security concerns related to Iran’s missile programs and regional activities. We are committed to working together toward these goals,” the chief diplomats said in a joint statement after the meeting.

The Europeans are now planning an informal meeting of all JCPOA participants and the US. Citing a European official, Reuters said that the date of this meeting is yet to be set.  The official also pointed to a US willingness to accept an invitation from the EU to participate in a meeting of the P5+1.

Earlier, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said Washington was willing to attend a meeting of the P5+1, although the US is not a member of this group of major world powers.

“The United States would accept an invitation from the European Union High Representative to attend a meeting of the P5+1 and Iran to discuss a diplomatic way forward on Iran's nuclear program,” Price noted, referring to the UN Security Council's five permanent members and Germany.

Price’s remarks signified a U.S. desire to walk into the P4+1 with the help of the E3 even before lifting its sanctions on Iran.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh reminded the West that the US is still not a JCPOA member and the only way to get the JCPOA membership is to lift sanctions.

Because of US withdrawal from JCPOA, there is NO P5+1. It is now only Iran and P4+1. Remember, Trump left the room and tried to blow it up. Gestures are fine. But to revive P5+1, US must act lift sanctions. We will respond, Khatibzadeh said on Friday.

But while the E3 tries to sneak the US in the JCPOA without lifting the sanctions, two JCPOA parties, namely China and Russia, can ensure that the US would rejoin the nuclear deal after correcting the mistakes Trump made against Iran.

China took a step in this regard by saying that US should unconditionally return to the JCPOA and lift all sanctions.

Speaking at a news conference, China’s Foreign Ministry Hua Chunying said, “Currently the Iranian nuclear issue is at a critical stage with both opportunities and challenges. China holds that the return of the United States to the JCPOA is the only correct approach to resolve the impasse on this issue. All parties should act with greater urgency, work together to implement consensus reached at the foreign ministers' meeting last December, and push for the unconditional return of the United States to the JCPOA as soon as possible and the lifting of all sanctions on Iran. On its part, Iran should resume full compliance with the JCPOA. In the meantime, we call on all sides to remain calm and exercise restraint, avoid taking actions that will escalate the situation and reserve space for diplomatic efforts.”

Russia, for its part, reminded the West why the JCPOA ended up a failed deal. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, has welcomed a US decision to rescind the Trump administration’s restoration of all UN sanctions on Iran in September.

Peskov also said that the main reason for the non-implementation of the JCPOA is the sanctions pressure that the US put on Iran.

Also, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS that Iran cannot be suspected of carrying out a covert nuclear weapons program as the E3 and the US ramped up pressure on Iran, accusing it of pursuing nuclear activities that have no civil justifications.

“We have always said and are saying now that a state, which has an agreement on comprehensive guarantees with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and which has been committed to this deal - and Iran has such an agreement, and a state, which has been fully observing the JCPOA for a long time, cannot be suspected of carrying out a covert program on weaponization in the nuclear field,” Ryabkov noted.

With the E3 working to pave the way for a US return to the JCPOA without lifting the sanctions, Russia and China have a unique opportunity to ensure that the dispute around the JCPOA is resolved reasonably. They need to make it clear to the West that a dispute settled unfairly is bound to break out in the not-so-distant future.

Iran to launch direct shipping line to South Africa and Latin America

Iran has expressed its plan to launch a direct shipping line to South Africa and Latin American countries in near future; this was stated by an official with the Iranian Chamber of Cooperatives (ICC). Babak Afghahi, Head of non-oil trade and export development committee of ICC stated that the proposed shipping line will connect Southern Iranian ports to the ports of South Africa and then to Latin American countries, specifically Brazil.

He said, shipping line is going to be launched with the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) and is aimed at developing Iranian non-oil trade with the countries in the mentioned regions.

“With the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, considering the capacity of Iran's cargo export to the mentioned destinations, the chambers of commerce across the country, the Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) of Iran and other export bodies have been informed about the new development,” Afghahi said.

As reported by IRNA, the Islamic Republic’s trade with South Africa reached US$43 million in the first six months of the previous Iranian calendar year, while the figure stood at US$27 million in the same period a year ago.

Following a new strategy for boosting non-oil trade and distancing the country’s economy from oil, Iran has been launching several direct shipping lines to its major trade destinations over the past few years.

Earlier this month, the Head of Iran-Syria Joint Chamber of Commerce Keyvan Kashefi announced the establishment of a direct shipping line between Iran’s southern port of Bandar Abbas and Syria’s Mediterranean port of Latakia.

Iran has also launched five direct shipping lines to Oman and is planning to establish direct routes to Qatar, India, Turkmenistan, and Russia as well.

Crude oil outlook remains gloomy

Oil prices declined after climbing to the highest in more than a year. Prices fell for a second day on Friday, retreating further from recent highs, as Texas energy companies began preparations to restart oil and gas fields shuttered by freezing weather and power outages. 

US energy firms during this past week cut the number of oil rigs operating for the first time since November 2020.

Brent crude futures ended the session down 1.6% at US$62.91/barrel, while US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 2.1%, to settle at US$59.24. For the week, Brent gained about 0.5% while WTI fell about 0.7%. This week, both benchmarks had climbed to the highest in more than a year.

Price pullback thus far appears corrective and is slight within the context of this month’s major upside price acceleration. Unusually cold weather in Texas and the Plains states curtailed up to 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude production and 21 billion cubic feet of natural gas, analysts estimated.

Texas refiners halted about a fifth of the nation’s oil processing amid power outages and severe cold. Companies were expected to prepare for production restarts on Friday as electric power and water services slowly resume.

While much of the selling relates to a gradual resumption of power in the Gulf coast region ahead of a significant temperature warm-up, the magnitude of this week’s loss of supply may require further discounting given much uncertainty regarding the extent and possible duration of lost output.

A point worth noting is that oil prices fell despite a surprise drop in the US crude stockpiles, before the big freeze hit. Inventories fell 7.3 million barrels to 461.8 million barrels, their lowest since March last year, the Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday.

Vaccines and the impressive rollouts have delivered strong gains, as have the efforts of OPEC plus - Saudi Arabia, in particular - and the big freeze in Texas, which gave oil prices one final kick during the week. With so many bullish factors now priced in, it seems some of these positions being unwound.

The United States on Thursday said it was ready to talk to Iran about returning to a 2015 agreement that aimed at preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Still, analysts did not expect near-term reversal of sanctions on Iran that were imposed by Trump administration.

This breakthrough increases the probability of Iran returning to the oil market soon, although there is much to be discussed and a new deal may not be a carbon-copy of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Lately, oil prices climbed on hopes that the US stimulus package will boost the economy and fuel demand, as supplies tighten due largely to output cuts by top producing countries. The rally was also in anticipation of the US President Joe Biden meeting with a bipartisan group of mayors and governors as he keeps pushing for approval of a US$1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan to bolster economic growth and help millions of unemployed workers.

Oil prices have risen due to production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers in the group OPEC+. Oil prices remained buoyed by further signs that crude stocks, particularly in the US were falling. Analysts anticipate that inventories will fall further later this year as transport fuel demand revives in tandem with the easing of virus-related restrictions on travel.

OPEC this week ratcheted down expectations for global oil demand to recover in 2021, trimming its forecast to 5.79 million bpd. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil supply was still outstripping global demand, though COVID-19 vaccines are expected to support a demand recovery.

The (IEA) report paints a more pessimistic picture than market participants have presumably been envisaging given the current high prices. Demand data from the world’s biggest oil importer also paints a bleak picture.

The number of people who travelled in China ahead of Lunar New Year holidays plummeted by 70% from two years ago as coronavirus restrictions curbed the world’s largest annual domestic migration, official data showed.

The US drillers this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a 12th week in a row, the longest streak of additions since June 2017.

According to secondary sources, OPEC crude oil production averaged 25.50 million bpd in January 2021, up 180,000 bpd from December 2020, with output rising in top producer Saudi Arabia, as well as in Venezuela and Iran, which are exempt from the OPEC+ cuts.