Saudi Arabia and Russia once again on opposite sides

Saudi Arabia and Russia once again seem to be propagating opposite stance prior to OPEC plus meeting scheduled in March. While Riyadh is publicly urging fellow members to be extremely cautious, Moscow is demanding increase in output.

When OPEC plus gathers on 4th March, it will discuss increasing output in April. There will be two crucial decisions.

First, the group as a whole must choose whether to restore as much as 500,000 barrels a day. Second, Saudi Arabia must decide the fate of one million barrels a day of extra voluntary cuts and clearing surplus inventories even more quickly.

The kingdom initially announced this reduction would be reversed in April, but their latest thinking is fluid and the next move hasn’t been finalized. Offering to maintain some part of this voluntary cut in April could give Riyadh a useful bargaining chip if it’s seeking to limit the group’s overall output increase.

Some easing in production restraint is likely at the March meeting. The real bargaining has yet to start and no decision has been pre-baked.

Having differed over the pace of supply increases at the last two ministerial meetings, public comments from Riyadh and Moscow indicate that another debate looms.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on 14th February that the market was balanced. While he hasn’t publicly expressed a policy preference for the March discussions, Novak argued at the last two OPEC+ meetings for production increases.

Acknowledging his stance might be unpopular; Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned his fellow producers against complacency. The group must recall the scars of last year’s crisis and be extremely cautious in its next move, he said.

This year’s 20% rally in crude prices has been sharp enough for major consumers such as India to complain about the squeeze, and for Wall Street banks and trading houses to predict further gains.

Global inventories are falling very fast and are set to diminish sharply later this year, according to the International Energy Agency. Demand for petroleum products that cater to societies working and consuming at home is booming.

After freezing storms in Texas shuttered as much as 40% of US crude production in the past week, the clamor for barrels from refiners in some regions has grown stronger. There’s also the risk for OPEC plus that, once the weather-related disruption in the shale heartlands abates, high prices would provoke a new flood of supply.

At the same time, inventories remain significantly above average levels and the IEA forecasts they could pile up again next quarter. The supply disruption from the US freeze won’t last long enough to cause a shortage.

Prices are still below the levels most OPEC members need to cover government spending. Saudi Arabia’s one million barrels cut is a gift. If an attempt is made to snatch back this gift, prices would decline only.

Can Russia and China restore balance to JCPOA?

As the United States doubles down on its diplomatic effort to reach a common consensus with Europe on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, pundits raise speculation on how the European Union, particularly EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell, can save the day by setting the stage for Iran and the US to ultimately implement the nuclear deal in full.

These pundits rarely point to the fact that the European signatories to the nuclear deal – Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – have lost the neutrality needed to act as a go-between since Joe Biden won the US presidential election in November. The Europeans are now harboring even more hawkish views than Washington itself.

During the Trump administration, the European parties to the JCPOA – France, Germany and the UK (E3) – had been calling on Iran to fully implement the nuclear deal in the hope that Trump would lose the presidential election and then they will revive the JCPOA in collaboration with a more favorite Democratic administration.

Trump lost the election and was replaced by someone who had played a direct role in negotiating the JCPOA in the first place. But the Europeans were quick to renege on their promise to salvage the nuclear deal. They called for a new negotiation with Iran after Biden assumed office, one that would expand the JCPOA and add other thorny issues such as Iran’s defensive missile program and its regional activities to it.

The top diplomats of the E3 and the US reiterated this position during a recnt joint meeting.

“The E3 welcomed the prospect of a US and Iranian return to compliance with the JCPOA. The E3 and the United States affirmed their determination to then strengthen the JCPOA and, together with regional parties and the wider international community, address broader security concerns related to Iran’s missile programs and regional activities. We are committed to working together toward these goals,” the chief diplomats said in a joint statement after the meeting.

The Europeans are now planning an informal meeting of all JCPOA participants and the US. Citing a European official, Reuters said that the date of this meeting is yet to be set.  The official also pointed to a US willingness to accept an invitation from the EU to participate in a meeting of the P5+1.

Earlier, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said Washington was willing to attend a meeting of the P5+1, although the US is not a member of this group of major world powers.

“The United States would accept an invitation from the European Union High Representative to attend a meeting of the P5+1 and Iran to discuss a diplomatic way forward on Iran's nuclear program,” Price noted, referring to the UN Security Council's five permanent members and Germany.

Price’s remarks signified a U.S. desire to walk into the P4+1 with the help of the E3 even before lifting its sanctions on Iran.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh reminded the West that the US is still not a JCPOA member and the only way to get the JCPOA membership is to lift sanctions.

Because of US withdrawal from JCPOA, there is NO P5+1. It is now only Iran and P4+1. Remember, Trump left the room and tried to blow it up. Gestures are fine. But to revive P5+1, US must act lift sanctions. We will respond, Khatibzadeh said on Friday.

But while the E3 tries to sneak the US in the JCPOA without lifting the sanctions, two JCPOA parties, namely China and Russia, can ensure that the US would rejoin the nuclear deal after correcting the mistakes Trump made against Iran.

China took a step in this regard by saying that US should unconditionally return to the JCPOA and lift all sanctions.

Speaking at a news conference, China’s Foreign Ministry Hua Chunying said, “Currently the Iranian nuclear issue is at a critical stage with both opportunities and challenges. China holds that the return of the United States to the JCPOA is the only correct approach to resolve the impasse on this issue. All parties should act with greater urgency, work together to implement consensus reached at the foreign ministers' meeting last December, and push for the unconditional return of the United States to the JCPOA as soon as possible and the lifting of all sanctions on Iran. On its part, Iran should resume full compliance with the JCPOA. In the meantime, we call on all sides to remain calm and exercise restraint, avoid taking actions that will escalate the situation and reserve space for diplomatic efforts.”

Russia, for its part, reminded the West why the JCPOA ended up a failed deal. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, has welcomed a US decision to rescind the Trump administration’s restoration of all UN sanctions on Iran in September.

Peskov also said that the main reason for the non-implementation of the JCPOA is the sanctions pressure that the US put on Iran.

Also, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS that Iran cannot be suspected of carrying out a covert nuclear weapons program as the E3 and the US ramped up pressure on Iran, accusing it of pursuing nuclear activities that have no civil justifications.

“We have always said and are saying now that a state, which has an agreement on comprehensive guarantees with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and which has been committed to this deal - and Iran has such an agreement, and a state, which has been fully observing the JCPOA for a long time, cannot be suspected of carrying out a covert program on weaponization in the nuclear field,” Ryabkov noted.

With the E3 working to pave the way for a US return to the JCPOA without lifting the sanctions, Russia and China have a unique opportunity to ensure that the dispute around the JCPOA is resolved reasonably. They need to make it clear to the West that a dispute settled unfairly is bound to break out in the not-so-distant future.

Iran to launch direct shipping line to South Africa and Latin America

Iran has expressed its plan to launch a direct shipping line to South Africa and Latin American countries in near future; this was stated by an official with the Iranian Chamber of Cooperatives (ICC). Babak Afghahi, Head of non-oil trade and export development committee of ICC stated that the proposed shipping line will connect Southern Iranian ports to the ports of South Africa and then to Latin American countries, specifically Brazil.

He said, shipping line is going to be launched with the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) and is aimed at developing Iranian non-oil trade with the countries in the mentioned regions.

“With the support of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, considering the capacity of Iran's cargo export to the mentioned destinations, the chambers of commerce across the country, the Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) of Iran and other export bodies have been informed about the new development,” Afghahi said.

As reported by IRNA, the Islamic Republic’s trade with South Africa reached US$43 million in the first six months of the previous Iranian calendar year, while the figure stood at US$27 million in the same period a year ago.

Following a new strategy for boosting non-oil trade and distancing the country’s economy from oil, Iran has been launching several direct shipping lines to its major trade destinations over the past few years.

Earlier this month, the Head of Iran-Syria Joint Chamber of Commerce Keyvan Kashefi announced the establishment of a direct shipping line between Iran’s southern port of Bandar Abbas and Syria’s Mediterranean port of Latakia.

Iran has also launched five direct shipping lines to Oman and is planning to establish direct routes to Qatar, India, Turkmenistan, and Russia as well.

Crude oil outlook remains gloomy

Oil prices declined after climbing to the highest in more than a year. Prices fell for a second day on Friday, retreating further from recent highs, as Texas energy companies began preparations to restart oil and gas fields shuttered by freezing weather and power outages. 

US energy firms during this past week cut the number of oil rigs operating for the first time since November 2020.

Brent crude futures ended the session down 1.6% at US$62.91/barrel, while US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 2.1%, to settle at US$59.24. For the week, Brent gained about 0.5% while WTI fell about 0.7%. This week, both benchmarks had climbed to the highest in more than a year.

Price pullback thus far appears corrective and is slight within the context of this month’s major upside price acceleration. Unusually cold weather in Texas and the Plains states curtailed up to 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude production and 21 billion cubic feet of natural gas, analysts estimated.

Texas refiners halted about a fifth of the nation’s oil processing amid power outages and severe cold. Companies were expected to prepare for production restarts on Friday as electric power and water services slowly resume.

While much of the selling relates to a gradual resumption of power in the Gulf coast region ahead of a significant temperature warm-up, the magnitude of this week’s loss of supply may require further discounting given much uncertainty regarding the extent and possible duration of lost output.

A point worth noting is that oil prices fell despite a surprise drop in the US crude stockpiles, before the big freeze hit. Inventories fell 7.3 million barrels to 461.8 million barrels, their lowest since March last year, the Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday.

Vaccines and the impressive rollouts have delivered strong gains, as have the efforts of OPEC plus - Saudi Arabia, in particular - and the big freeze in Texas, which gave oil prices one final kick during the week. With so many bullish factors now priced in, it seems some of these positions being unwound.

The United States on Thursday said it was ready to talk to Iran about returning to a 2015 agreement that aimed at preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Still, analysts did not expect near-term reversal of sanctions on Iran that were imposed by Trump administration.

This breakthrough increases the probability of Iran returning to the oil market soon, although there is much to be discussed and a new deal may not be a carbon-copy of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Lately, oil prices climbed on hopes that the US stimulus package will boost the economy and fuel demand, as supplies tighten due largely to output cuts by top producing countries. The rally was also in anticipation of the US President Joe Biden meeting with a bipartisan group of mayors and governors as he keeps pushing for approval of a US$1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan to bolster economic growth and help millions of unemployed workers.

Oil prices have risen due to production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers in the group OPEC+. Oil prices remained buoyed by further signs that crude stocks, particularly in the US were falling. Analysts anticipate that inventories will fall further later this year as transport fuel demand revives in tandem with the easing of virus-related restrictions on travel.

OPEC this week ratcheted down expectations for global oil demand to recover in 2021, trimming its forecast to 5.79 million bpd. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil supply was still outstripping global demand, though COVID-19 vaccines are expected to support a demand recovery.

The (IEA) report paints a more pessimistic picture than market participants have presumably been envisaging given the current high prices. Demand data from the world’s biggest oil importer also paints a bleak picture.

The number of people who travelled in China ahead of Lunar New Year holidays plummeted by 70% from two years ago as coronavirus restrictions curbed the world’s largest annual domestic migration, official data showed.

The US drillers this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a 12th week in a row, the longest streak of additions since June 2017.

According to secondary sources, OPEC crude oil production averaged 25.50 million bpd in January 2021, up 180,000 bpd from December 2020, with output rising in top producer Saudi Arabia, as well as in Venezuela and Iran, which are exempt from the OPEC+ cuts.

Satellite images reveal Israel expanding Dimona nuclear site

Recently released satellite images reveal that Israeli — the sole possessor of nuclear arms in West Asia — is conducting significant activities at the highly secretive Dimona nuclear facility in the Negev Desert. The construction site is located in the immediate vicinity of the buildings that house the nuclear reactor and the reprocessing plant.

Citing commercial satellite imagery of the facility, the International Panel on Fissile Material (IPFM), a group of independent nuclear experts from 17 countries, reported that significant new construction had been underway at the Dimona complex.

The IPFM’s website said the construction had “expanded and appears to be actively underway with multiple construction vehicles present.”  However, it added, the purpose was not known.

It was unclear when the construction work began, but Pavel Podvig, a researcher with the program on science and global security at Princeton University, told The Guardian that the project had apparently been launched in late 2018 and 2019.  “But that’s all we can say at this point,” he added.

Reportedly, Israel has tightly withheld information about its nuclear weapons program, but the regime is estimated to be keeping at least 90 nuclear warheads in its arsenal, according to the non-profit organization Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

The warheads, FAS said, had been produced from plutonium obtained at the Dimona facility’s heavy water reactor.

According to reports, Dimona, which is widely believed to be the key to Israel’s nuclear arms manufacturing program, was built with the assistance from the French government and activated sometime between 1962 and 1964.

Israel has acknowledged the existence of the Dimona nuclear reactor, but neither confirms nor denies the purpose of the facility, which is assumed to be the manufacturing of nukes.

Meanwhile, environmentalists have warned that Dimona — one of the world’s oldest nuclear facilities — could pose enormous environmental and security threats to those living in the area and to the entire West Asia region, calling on the regime to shut down the complex.

Turning a deaf ear to international calls for nuclear transparency, Israel has so far refused, with the US support, to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that is aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.

 

Iran agro products export terminal inaugurated

President Hassan Rouhani inaugurated the first phase of Iran’s biggest agricultural products export terminal. It has been constructed with an investment of US$171 million in the Northern Mazandaran province. The terminal spread over 31,000 hectares of land is situated in Jouybar city.

Marketing, exporting products, creation and introduction of Iranian brands in global markets, reforming the distribution system and regulation of the market of agricultural products are the primary goals of the export terminal.

Speaking in the opening ceremony, the terminal’s Head Khalil Gholizadeh said, the first phase of this export terminal with a capacity of more than 364,000 tons has different sections for sorting and packing fruits, producing carton boxes, freezing protein materials that has created direct jobs for 300 people.

The export terminal includes 57 cold storage halls and has the capacity for freezing 80 tons of agricultural products and producing 6,000 tons of carton boxes every day, as well as the annual packaging of 274,000 tons of various agricultural products and the storing of 90,000 tons of vegetable and protein products at above and below zero temperatures.

The regulation of the market of agricultural products, especially horticulture products, as one of the most important advantages of this terminal and call for the support of public and private banks in providing working capital for the country’s agricultural units.

Offering complete supply chain, including the packaging industry is one of the main requirements of the country’s export terminals for agricultural products. Supporting the chain needs of this export terminal and setting up export terminals for similar agricultural products in other provinces are the requirements for boosting export of Iran

As announced by an official with the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), the value of the country’s agricultural products export has risen 8.4 percent during the first ten months of the current Iranian calendar year as compared to the same period in the past year. Mehrdad Jamal Orounaqi, the IRICA deputy head for technical and customs affairs, put the value of exported products at US$4.9 billion in the ten-month of the present Iranian calendar.

The official said the weight of agricultural products exported in the mentioned period has risen by almost 26% to 7.085 million tons. Iran had exported 5.6 million tons of agricultural products worth US$4.5 billion during the first ten months of the previous year.

Details of agricultural exports in the period under review show that 2.4 million tons with a value of more than US$2.1 billion comprises of 10 major agricultural products, among these pistachio is at the top of the list.

The share of pistachios with fresh or dried skin is 147,000 tons worth more than US$920 million, and the export of fresh or dried pistachio kernels is about 15,000 tons worth more than US$170 million.

Eight countries were the export destinations of the 10 major exported products which shows that there is a wider distribution than before in the export of these items between countries.

Iran exported over US$5.8 billion worth of agricultural and foodstuff products in the previous Iranian calendar year (ended on March 19, 2020), the Head of Agriculture Ministry’s Planning and Economic Affairs Department Shahrokh Shajari has announced.

Watermelons, apples, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, and shallots were the top five exported products in the previous year in terms of weight, while in terms of value, pistachios, apples, tomatoes, pistachio kernels, and watermelons were the five major exported items.

WTO appoints first woman and African head

Nigerian economist, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has been appointed to head World Trade Organization (WTO), becoming the first woman and first African to take on the role amid rising protectionism and disagreement over how the body decides cases involving billions in sales and thousands of jobs.

Ms Okonjo-Iweala, 66, was named Director General by representatives of the 164 countries that make up the WTO, which deals with the rules of trade between nations based on negotiated agreements.

She said during an online news conference that she was taking over at a time when the WTO was "facing so many challenges".

"It's clear to me that deep and wide-ranging reforms are needed … it cannot be business as usual," she said.

Her first priority will be quickly addressing the economic and health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Strategies may include lifting export restrictions on supplies and vaccines, and encouraging the manufacturing of vaccines in more countries.

Other big tasks include reforming the organization’s dispute resolution process and finding ways for trade rules to deal with change like digitalization and e-commerce.

She takes over after four turbulent years in which former United States president Donald Trump used new tariffs, or import taxes, against China and the European Union to push his America-first trade agenda.

"It will not be easy because we also have the issue of lack of trust among members which has built up over time, not just among the US and China and the US and the EU … but also between developing and developed country members and we need to work through that," she said.

I absolutely do feel an additional burden, I can't lie about that ‑ being the first woman and the first African means that one really has to perform.

"All credit to members for electing me and making that history, but the bottom line is that if I want to really make Africa and women proud I have to produce results, and that's where my mind is at now."

The appointment, which takes effect on 1st March 2021, came after United States President Joe Biden endorsed her candidacy, which had been blocked by Trump.

Biden's move was a step toward his aim of supporting cooperative approaches to international problems after Trump's go-it-alone approach that launched multiple trade disputes.

But unblocking the appointment is only the start in dealing with US concerns about the WTO that date back to the Obama administration.

The US had blocked the appointment of new judges to the WTO's appellate body, essentially freezing its ability to resolve extended and complex trade disputes.

The US Government has argued the trade organization is slow-moving and bureaucratic, ill-equipped to handle problems posed by China's state-dominated economy, and unduly restrictive on US attempts to impose sanctions on countries that unfairly subsidies their companies or export at unusually low prices.

Chad P. Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said unblocking Ms Okonjo-Iweala's appointment was "a very good first step" in re-engaging with the WTO.

In particular, the WTO faces "a ticking time-bomb" in the form of other countries' challenges to Trump's use of national security as a justification for imposing tariffs, a little-used provision in US law rejected by key US trading partners in Europe.

Ms Okonjo-Iweala has been Nigeria's finance minister and, briefly, foreign minister, and had a 25-year career at the World Bank as an advocate for economic growth and development in poorer countries.

She rose to the number two position of Managing Director, where she oversaw US$104.1 billion in development finance in Africa, South and Central Asia, and Europe.

In 2012 she made an unsuccessful bid for the top post with the backing of African and other developing countries, challenging the traditional practice that the World Bank is always headed by an American.

She has a bachelor's degree in economics from Harvard University and a PhD in regional economics and development from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee withdrew her candidacy, leaving Ms Okonjo-Iweala as the only choice.

Her predecessor, Roberto Azevedo, stepped down on 31st August 2020, a year before his term expired.

Netanyahu first leader in Middle East to get a call from Biden

US President, Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on phone; nearly a month after Biden assumed the charge. Netanyahu was the first leader in the Middle East to get a call from Biden. The conversation lasted for nearly an hour. 

The two leaders noted their personal ties of many years and said they will work together to continue bolstering the strong alliance between Israel and the US.

The leaders agreed to continue a dialogue between them to promote peace agreements between Israel and states in the region, the Iranian threat and regional challenges.

Biden congratulated Netanyahu for his leadership in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and they exchanged opinions on the matter.

Biden affirmed his personal history of steadfast commitment to Israel's security in call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Biden emphasized US support for recent normalization of relations between Israel and countries in the Arab and Muslim word and underscored importance of working to advance peace throughout the region, including between Israelis and Palestinians.

“It was a good conversation,” Biden later told reporters in the Oval Office, where he was meeting US labor leaders.

The phone call came a day before US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to hold a video conference with his counterparts in UK, France and Germany that are party to the 2015 Iran deal. The meeting comes after Tehran announced it would not allow snap inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency if the US does not lift sanctions imposed since 2018 by February 21.

The Biden administration seeks to rejoin the nuclear deal, which former US president Donald Trump left in 2018, as long as Tehran returns to full compliance with its limitations.

Israel is opposed to the deal, which would eventually permit Iran to enrich high levels of uranium that could lead to the development of a nuclear weapon. In recent weeks, Iran has begun enriching uranium to 20%, far beyond the limitations of the 2015 deal, and developing uranium metal.

The delay in Biden’s call sparked speculation that the president was distancing himself from Netanyahu, possibly in light of the prime minister’s tense relationship with former US President Barack Obama, under whom Biden was vice president, and his especially warm one with Trump, including after Biden won the 2020 election.

Netanyahu rejected those theories, most recently in an interview with Army Radio on Wednesday afternoon hours before the call, in which he said “Joe Biden is my personal friend for 40 years” and that he believes Biden will advance further peace agreements between Israel and Arab and Muslim states.

Blinken and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan each called their Israeli counterparts twice in recent weeks.

Advisers for some of Netanyahu’s political rivals said officials in the Biden administration told them they were maintaining the strong US-Israel relationship while relaying a message that there would be “no special relationship” between Netanyahu and Biden.

Quad seeking collaborative defence arrangement to counter China

The effectiveness with which Russia and China have been able to exploit situations to make territorial gains has exposed a chronic vulnerability for collective defence regimes. Collective defence risks are becoming weaker for an era of strategic competition in the grey zone. The Quad implicitly acknowledges this and has developed as a collaborative defence arrangement that has the capacity to respond to the sorts of threats China poses.

For the Quad to succeed, Australia, India, Japan and the United States need to work together using force—or tactics that is either above or slightly below the threshold of armed conflict to block Chinese attempts to seize territory. They members need a coherent strategy to counter China’s other activities below the threshold of armed conflict.

This requires broad understanding of the defence using different elements of national power to counter a range of coercive threats. Each member needs to understand which levers should be pulled at what times in a coherent strategy that thwarts Beijing’s ability to achieve its political objectives at each stage of competition or conflict.

The more coercive the power China mobilizes, the fewer levers of national power the Quad members would need to pull. In a hypothetical example in the first part of this series, let us explore how Quad members might develop an effective military response to a Chinese attempt to seize Pratas Island from Taiwan. In that case, the four members of the Quad would be pulling down heavily on the military levers of national power—albeit at different stages of the conflict and in different theatres.

Responding to the most coercive of China’s threats is the easiest part of the Quad’s job. It gets harder if China mobilizes less coercive power when threatening the Quad’s interests in the Indo-Pacific. This is where the distinction between collective defence and collaborative defence becomes the key.

Over time, China has reclaimed land and transformed islands into military facilities that have increased its ability to project power across the Western Pacific. This has raised the costs for the US to defend its treaty allies, which undermines its presence in Asia.

For Japan and Australia, China’s South China Sea facilities pose a threat to the freedom of navigation each relies on for trade.

In India, the stakes may not be as high, but any erosion of international norms in the South China Sea would set an unwelcome precedent as the Chinese military increases its presence in the Indian Ocean. The differing stakes for each country in the Quad have made a collective response impossible.

However, an effective response to China’s grey-zone coercion need not be ‘collective’. In 2017, Ely Ratner, Biden’s top China adviser at the Pentagon, argued in Foreign Affairs that the US should ‘abandon its neutrality and help countries in the region defend their claims’.

Ratner suggested that the US help treaty allies such as the Philippines with joint land-reclamation projects, increased arms sales and improved basing access. Other Quad members would also need to draw upon their own bilateral partnerships to help claimant states build resilience to Beijing’s grey-zone operations. The Quad would be a subtle means of helping Southeast Asian claimants defend their sovereignty against China’s creeping expansionism.

Ratner’s proposal shows collaborative defence in action with the aid of the Indo-Pacific’s established great power. While Washington is laying the groundwork to compete with China in the grey zone, Australia could strengthen its maritime capacity-building initiatives and joint naval exercises with Malaysia and Indonesia in archipelagic Southeast Asia.

India and Japan could each increase the frequency of their bilateral naval exercises with Vietnam. The Quad could agree to conduct Exercise Malabar in the South China Sea, while members of the ‘blue dot network’ could jointly finance critical infrastructure projects in littoral states. An effective strategy would require each Quad member to use a mix of diplomacy, aid, military exchanges, arms sales, joint exercises and new basing infrastructure.

None of these initiatives will achieve results immediately, but nor did China’s island-building campaign. Over time, each initiative will shift the burden of escalation back to China. With each Quad member working independently and collaboratively to embolden claimant states to defend their maritime rights, Beijing will incur new risks when rotating new fighters on Fiery Cross Reef or contemplating further incursions into the Natuna Islands.

Collaboration will allow each Quad member to find out how best to draw on its bilateral partnerships to embolden claimant states to defend their interests. The Quad will be invisible, but omnipresent in Southeast Asia. That’s precisely the threat that Beijing doesn’t want to deal with.

To succeed as a collaborative defence arrangement, the Quad needs to be guided by three principles. Its members need to work independently on their bilateral relationships to improve claimant states’ ability to defend their interests; they must exercise together whenever strategic circumstances require it; and they need to share notes on regional strategy, knowing it will be much harder for China to secure further territorial gains if it’s on the back foot.

Israel not to engage with Biden on Iran nuclear strategy

Israel has openly declared, it would not engage with US President Joe Biden on strategy regarding the Iranian nuclear program, urged tougher sanctions and a credible military threat against Iran, its arch-enemy. 

"We will not be able to be part of such a process if the new administration returns to that deal," Ambassador to United States, Gilad Erdan told Israel's Army Radio.

The remarks by Israel's envoy to Washington came at a touchy juncture for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Up for re-election next month, he has revived his hard line on Iran, while not yet having any direct communication with Biden.

Joe Biden has expressed repeatedly, the US return to a 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran - which former President Donald Trump had quit, restoring sanctions - if the Iranians recommit to their own obligations. Washington has also said it wants to confer with allies in the Middle East about such moves.

"We will not be able to be part of such a process if the new administration returns to that deal," Ambassador Gilad Erdan told Israel's Army Radio.

Netanyahu aides have privately questioned whether engaging with US counterparts might backfire, for Israel, by falsely signaling its consent for any new deal that it still opposes.

Israel was not a party to the 2015 deal. It has powerful advocates within the US Congress. However, Netanyahu's threats to take unilateral military action on Iran if he deems diplomacy a dead end also figure into big-power planning.

"We think that if the United States returns to the same accord that it already withdrew from, all its leverage will be lost," Erdan said.

"It would appear that only crippling sanctions - keeping the current sanctions and even adding new sanctions - combined with a credible military threat - that Iran fears - might bring Iran to real negotiations with Western countries that might ultimately produce a deal truly capable of preventing it breaking ahead (to nuclear arms)."

The Biden administration has said it wants to strengthen and lengthen constraints on Iran, which denies seeking the bomb.

Android based apps spying on Pakistanis

According to a US based cyber security company, two malware programs based on an Android platform that emerged in India have been spying on sensitive institutions. The report said it has discovered the two malware, Hornbill and SunBird, which are used by a cyber group named Confucius that first appeared in 2013 as a state-sponsored, pro-India actor primarily pursuing Pakistani and other South Asian targets.

"Targets of these tools include personnel linked to Pakistan’s military, nuclear authorities, and Indian election officials in Kashmir," the statement said.

"Hornbill and SunBird have sophisticated capabilities to exfiltrate SMS, encrypted messaging app content, and geo-location, among other types of sensitive information," it added.

Confucius had created in the past malware for Windows operating systems, but the group has been known developing mobile malware since 2017 when the spying app ChatSpy was created.

While SunBird has a remote access function that can execute commands on a device by an attacker, Hornbill is a surveillance tool that can extract data from users.

"SunBird has been disguised as applications that include Security services, such as the fictional “Google Security Framework”, Apps tied to specific locations (“Kashmir News”) or activities (“Falconry Connect” and “Mania Soccer”), Islam-related applications (“Quran Majeed”)," the report said.

The majority of applications appear to target Muslim individuals, the report added.

Both malware, which are circulated as fake Android apps, can access users' call logs, contacts, images, browser history, and they take screenshots and photos with the device camera.

Some major targets included an ''individual who applied for a position at the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, individuals with numerous contacts in the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), as well as officers responsible for electoral rolls (Booth Level Officers) located in the Pulwama district of Kashmir", the analysis found.

"The data included information on victims in Europe and the United States, some of which appear to be targets of spouse ware or stalkerware. It also included data on Pakistani nationals in Pakistan, India, and the United Arab Emirates that we believe may have been targeted by Confucius APT campaigns between 2018 and 2019," the detailed report added.

 

India trying to widen breach between Pakistan and Bangladesh

Indian high commissioner to Bangladesh Vikram Kumar Doraiswami on Monday indicated the trial of genocide committed by Pakistan during the 1971 liberation war can take place anytime as there is no statute of limitations in terms of times, reports UNB.

“I think we should be clear about it without getting into legal formalities…in other words, even if something happened long ago,” he said.

The High Commissioner said that there was no statute of limitation on any kind of arrangement that may have been arrived in and this is something entirely within the jurisdiction of the Government of Bangladesh to assess the history and see how this goes forward.

Doraiswami came up with the remarks when asked which provision of the 1974 tripartite agreement is holding back to try the Pakistani Generals who committed genocide during the war of liberation in 1971.

“History is history,” said the High Commissioner noting that the question is historically very relevant in this historic year when Bangladesh is set to celebrate the 50 years of its Independence.

The Indian diplomat was speaking at ‘DCAB Talk’ organized by the Diplomatic Correspondents Association, Bangladesh (DCAB) at the Jatiya Press Club. DCAB President Pantho Rahman and General Secretary A K M Moinuddin also spoke at the event.

Bangladesh has recently reiterated the importance of resolving outstanding bilateral issues with Pakistan, including an official apology from Pakistan for the genocide it committed during Bangladesh’s liberation war in 1971.

Bangladesh also sought completion of the repatriation of stranded Pakistanis in Bangladesh, and settling the issue of the division of assets.

Bangladesh has made it clear that it cannot forget the atrocities committed by Pakistan in 1971 and the pain will remain there forever.

United Arab Emirates appoints first ambassador to Israel

Ruler of Dubai and Vice President of United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum has sworn in the country's first ambassador to Israel, Mohammed Mahmoud Al-Khaja, according to the Dubai Media Office.

The UAE's cabinet last month approved the establishment of an embassy in Tel Aviv in Israel, state media said, while Israel announced its embassy had opened in Abu Dhabi, after the UAE and Israel agreed to normalize relations.

Hundreds of Israelis booked flights and went to visit the Gulf state after the historical signature of the Abraham Accords. In light of this, the Tourism Ministry is hoping to attract many new tourists from the UAE as soon as travel returns when COVID-19 infection rates drop.

However, due to Israel closing its border in efforts to contain new coronavirus variants, hundreds of Israeli remained stuck in Dubai. 

In addition to tourism, Israel and the UAE are currently building bridges in a variety of sectors, from hi-tech to space exploration and ag-tech.

The UAE's Hope Probe success in entering orbit around Mars last week places it in the unique club of only five agencies able to reach the red planet so far. The Gulf state even has plans for settlements on Mars, which it hopes would become a reality in less than a century. 

Israel's own Beresheet moon project is meant to launch a second mission in three year's time. The scientific cooperation between the Start up Nation and the UAE is likely to be at the focus of diplomats, and think tanks, from both countries in the near future.

Israel and the UAE both had important milestones last year points to how important the current relations are. Israel and the UAE have many shared interests, whether it is a shared regional outlook about threats and instability, or the fact that both countries are close partners of the United States.

Both countries are also pioneering technology products, whether in fintech or food tech or other sectors, many of which have been on display, or will be soon, in joint ventures and exhibitions in the UAE which Israelis are taking part in.

For instance, Israeli companies flocked to the GITEX trade show last year and hope to be at IDEX in Abu Dhabi this month and also GISEC this summer.