What is delaying formation of Taliban Government in Afghanistan?

Delays in the formation Taliban Government is linked with the problem of Panjshir, which will be resolved in a couple of days, Mohammad Akbar Agha, a Taliban field commander and now the leader of Afghanistan’s High Council of Salvation, told TASS on Sunday.

"The only problem hampering the formation of a government in Afghanistan is the problem of Panjshir," he said, adding that the new government "will be announced in a couple of days."

The northern province of Panjshir is the only pocket of resistance for Taliban. It is led by Ahmad Massoud, a son of Ahmad Shah Massoud, a once influential leader of Afghanistan’s Tajik community who fought against the Taliban back in the 1990s.

"No doubts that people in the future government should be Afghans. It doesn’t matter for us which ethnic or social group they belong to," he said.

Taliban have postponed formation of the government for the second time after they took control of Afghanistan last month. Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid on Saturday said that the announcement about the new government and Cabinet members will now be made next week, without providing the reason behind the postponement.

Taliban were expected to announce the government formation on Friday in Kabul, with the group’s co-founder Mulla Abdul Ghani Baradar as its head. The reports, however, suggest that the insurgents have been struggling to shape an inclusive administration acceptable to the international community.

It is believed that Taliban can form the government at their own but they are now focusing to have an administration in which all parties, groups and sections of the society have proper representation.

Khalil Haqqani, responsible for the security of Kabul, revealed that former Afghanistan’s Prime Minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Hashmat Ghani Ahmadzai, brother of ousted Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, will be given representation in the government. Hashmat Ghani had recently indicated that he’ll support a Taliban-led government.

On Friday, US secretary of state Antony Blinken reiterated the expectations from a Taliban-led government, including the formation of an inclusive government, rejecting reprisals and upholding the basic rights of Afghans. The top US diplomat was responding to the reports of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar getting the charge of the new government.

Baradar to lead new Afghan government

According to Reuters report, Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is likely to lead a new Afghan government. One of the primary concerns is; can Taliban govern a country facing economic meltdown, a humanitarian disaster and threats to security and stability from rival groups.

Baradar, who heads the Taliban's political office, will be joined by Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, the son of late Taliban co-founder Mullah Omar, and Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, in senior positions in the government.

"All the top leaders have arrived in Kabul, where preparations are in final stages to announce the new government," a Taliban official told Reuters.

Haibatullah Akhundzada, the Taliban's supreme religious leader, will focus on religious matters and governance within the framework of Islam, another Taliban source said.

Taliban seizing Kabul on 15th August, after sweeping across most of the country, have faced resistance in the Panjshir Valley, where there have been reports of heavy fighting and casualties.

Several thousand fighters of regional militias and remnants of the government's armed forces have massed in the rugged valley under the leadership of Ahmad Massoud, son of former Mujahideen commander Ahmad Shah Massoud.

While Taliban have spoken of their desire to form a consensus government, there are forecast that the interim government would be formed solely by Taliban members.

It would comprise 25 ministries, with a consultative council, or shura, of 12 Muslim scholars, the source added.

Also being planned within six to eight months is a loya jirga, or grand assembly, bringing together elders and representatives across Afghan society to discuss a constitution and the structure of the future government, the source said.

Western powers say they are prepared to engage with the Taliban and send humanitarian aid, but that formal recognition of the government and broader economic assistance will depend on action - not just promises - to safeguard human rights.

The United States, European Union and others have cast doubt on the movement's assurances. Many Afghans, especially women and those with connections to the former government or Western coalition forces, now fear for their security and even lives.

The European Union is ready to engage with Taliban but the Islamist group must respect human rights, including those of women, and not let Afghanistan again become a base for terrorism, the EU foreign policy chief said on Friday.

The US administration has no plans to release billions in Afghan gold, investments and foreign currency reserves parked in the United States that it froze after the Taliban's takeover.

Who is providing arsenal to National Resistance Front?

After weeks of fruitless negotiations between Taliban’s political leadership and senior leaders of National Resistance Front in Panjshir, Taliban launched a multi-pronged attack on Panjshir Valley beginning 31st August 2021. 

Taliban began assault on Panjshir immediately after the US military pulled out of Kabul airport and ended efforts to evacuate American citizens and Afghan allies.

According to conventional media reports, National Resistance Front has mostly successfully warded off Taliban by virtue of easily defending positions in the mountainous region, inflicting heavy casualties on Taliban.

Prior to Taliban incursions, the nascent resistance claimed it controlled four districts in Baghlan and Parwan provinces outside of the Panjshir Valley. These districts provided a cushion for the anti-Taliban militia to gather Afghan security forces who did not surrender to Taliban.

However, Taliban recaptured the crucial district of Dih Saleh in eastern Baghlan province, which granted the group access to the Khawak Pass that leads into the heart of Panjshir. Along with Khawak, Taliban sent militants to the southern gate of the Panjshir Valley at the town of Gulbahar, and Anjuman, a critical pass in the north in Badakhshan province. Despite its numerical superiority, Taliban was not able to break the defensive lines of the resistance forces. 

In the south, Taliban massed forces in the district of Jabul-Saraj in Parwan in hopes of overrunning the National Resistance Front’s defenses in Gulbahar. Intense fighting waged for two days, as reports emerged of Taliban militants advancing past the initial defensive positions into Shotul district in Panjshir. On social media, pro-Taliban accounts continued circulating videos claiming that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s forces had taken control of Shotul. However, neither Taliban officials nor their more credible social media supporters have posted similar information, indicating that the claims are false. The Taliban does appear to have controlled the pass for a period of time.

The reports indicate that the NRF was able to expel the Taliban from Shotul as fighting continued further south near Gulbahar. National Resistance Front spokesman Fahim Dashty corroborated those reports, stating “the Taliban has spread rumors that they have entered parts of Panjshir. These are psychological operation (PsyOp) and propaganda. We assure full control over all the entrances of Panjshir. [The] Taliban have made multiple attempts to enter Shotul from Jabul-Saraj, and failed each time.” 

On the western border of Panjshir, Taliban used the Khawak Pass to probe the NRF’s defenses. According to National Resistance Front officials, the initial attack was repelled easily, but Taliban continued sending forces. Pro Taliban sources posted videos of Taliban vehicles and soldiers climbing the Khawak Pass to enter the Panjshir Valley in order to divide the resistance forces down the middle and overwhelm the weakened units. While the numbers could not be independently confirmed, pro-resistance reporters noted that 40 Taliban fighters were killed within the first 24 hours of fighting near the pass. Additionally, video from an ambush site in the Khawak Pass has gone viral, depicting resistance commandos decimating Taliban fighters on the road below.

That video gave credence to the resistance claim of staving off the Taliban assault in the Khawak Pass, as the terrain granted a sizable advantage to the defenders of the valley. The most recent reports suggested that pro-resistance fighters from Andarab have retaken the Khawak Pass, halting further Taliban incursions, although that information could not be independently verified. 

In the northeast, the Taliban also attempted to enter the Panjshir Valley through the Anjuman Pass near Badakhshan. Given the lack of reporting on clashes in the northeast, it is likely that this was not a main line of effort for the Taliban and that the resistance forces were able to easily defend the pass from the assault. A former Afghan National Army commando reported that the Anjuman Pass is heavily guarded by elite units who have inflicted heavy casualties on any Taliban fighters who attempted to enter the valley.  

Furthermore, reports emerged of Taliban employing Al Qaeda and foreign fighters to attack in Panjshir. Originally, that claim was propagated by Massoud’s forces in Panjshir. However, videos surfaced of militants speaking Arabic and Persian – among other languages on their way to the Khawak Pass in Baghlan. Furthermore, in the aftermath of the successful NRF ambush at Khawak, militia leaders are claiming that they eliminated both Taliban and Al Qaeda units.

While the Taliban do have advantages in both manpower and firepower, Panjshir’s terrain provides the National Resistance Front with easily defendable positions, enabling the resistance to continue to withstand the Taliban onslaught. As a result, the National Resistance Front has thus far been successful in maintaining the territorial integrity of Panjshir and resisting incursions by the Taliban.

As fighting continues, the lack of declarations of victory by the Taliban and its supporters on social media would indicate that the resistance has the upper hand, at least temporarily.  

Ten lessons from the lost US war in Afghanistan

I feel privileged in sharing an article by Andrew Korybko. He has rightly concluded everything that went wrong was entirely foreseeable and many even warned about what was happening but their concerns were dismissed. 

The truth finally came out and now everyone knows that the entire war was built upon a mountain of lies and easily avoidable mistakes. The US reputation is ruined and it's no longer regarded as a superpower.

Tens of thousands of lives were lost and over US$2 trillion were wasted only for the situation to revert back to how it was almost exactly twenty years ago. Now it is the time for the decision-makers, strategists, media, and civil society to somberly find out what went wrong and to plan nothing like this ever happens again. Here are the ten lessons to be learned:

Legitimate anti-terrorist actions mustn't be exploited for ulterior motives

The US attacked Afghanistan on the pretext that it had the right to militarily respond against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan in self-defense after it concluded that the terrorist group's leader there was responsible for planning the 9/11 terrorist attacks, but its greatest mistake was exploiting this as the pretext to engage in so-called “nation-building”. 

Nation-building will never succeed

It's impossible to sustainably support the cause of so-called “nation-building” whereby a foreign country aggressively imposes its completely different way of life onto a targeted state's inhabitants who historically organized their society on the basis of other morals, ethics, principles, and values. 

Local allies must be held to account

After regrettably getting caught up in the Afghan quagmire, America had the responsibility to hold its allies there to account instead of letting them steal from their people, enrich themselves from the drug trade and other forms of organized crime, and carry out extrajudicial killings on the pretext of targeting the Taliban.

International coalition doesn't have impunity

America and its international coalition allies arrogantly thought that they could commit crimes against the Afghan people with impunity, but that was impossible since the rest of the world inevitably found out about their killings and other such unsavory acts even if justice isn't yet served to the culprits. 

Winning hearts and minds is more important than winning territory

Strategically speaking, the war was lost shortly after it began once the US and its allies started abusing the Afghan people in terrible ways and therefore turned their hearts and minds towards the Taliban, which therefore made it impossible for the government to hold its ground despite being backed by the US military. 

Western mainstream media always lies

The dramatic developments of the past two weeks during the Taliban's lightning-fast conquest of the country shattered the countless lies spread by the Western mainstream media about the true state of affairs there, proving that they can't ever be trusted about anything, whether it's Afghanistan, China, or whatever else. 

Inevitable military withdrawals must be carried out responsibly

The US inevitable withdrawal wasn't carried out responsibly since America should have ensured that it didn't leave any military equipment behind, established tripwires for deterring Taliban attacks until it already left the country, and compelled former President Ghani to politically compromise towards a transitional government. 

Political proxies sometimes defy their patrons

Part of the problem with the US withdrawal was that its political proxy, former President Ghani, refused to make any meaningful compromises towards a transitional government that could have facilitated a smoother transfer of power and prevented America from being humiliated even more than it already was in recent days. 

Local allies must be rescued during the withdrawal

The US shamefully abandoned tens of thousands of its Afghan allies who fear for their futures after their American-backed government just fell, which shows how unreliable the US is as an ally that it would leave its local allies to fend for themselves under such uncertain conditions instead of letting them relocate to America.

Andrew Korybko is a political analyst, journalist and regular contributor to several online journals. He is a member of the expert council for the Institute of Strategic Studies and Predictions at the People’s Friendship University of Russia. He has published various works in the field of Hybrid Wars, including “Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach to Regime Change” and “The Law of Hybrid War: Eastern Hemisphere”.

Takeaways from Wilson Center Seminar

The withdrawal of US and coalition forces from Afghanistan, the rapid deterioration of the Afghan government and military, and the return of the Taliban will have profound implications for the future of South Asia. 

At Wilson Center in the latest event in its “Afghanistan: Hindsight Up Front” initiative participants discuss the future of the region with leading journalists, former diplomats, and thought leaders from India and Pakistan. Following are selected quotes:

David Hale

"I’d like to comment first on Afghanistan. Our leverage remains real…it’s limited. The Taliban, in my opinion, do not crave international legitimacy so much that they will compromise on their core principles or change their true colors. Their statements, the ones that we're hearing now, are to be expected, while their behavior, which we're seeing now, demonstrates that they've not really changed since 2001. And when they say governance will be guided by Sharia, they mean their version of the Sharia, which will make Saudi Arabia look a lot like the city of San Francisco."

"We must apply pressure, even if chances of it altering behavior are limited. We can build a coalition that will take the measures we have already taken, and more. I am speaking of freezing assets, stopping cash transfers, withholding diplomatic recognition, continuing UN sanctions, while of course communicating to the Taliban, how to ease these pressures, which would be on their part, suppressing ISIS and Al Qaeda, protecting human rights and humanitarian access, and allowing the processing of refugees, among other goals."

Maleeha Lohdi

"While there is no daylight between various members of the international community on what the expectation is of the Taliban. If you look at the Security Council statement, if you look at the OIC communiqué, you look at the Human Rights Council statement of two days ago. They all say the same thing, so do not underestimate the power of collective opinion, this is extremely important. I also think it's unprecedented. Never have I seen—I've served at the UN for five years—never have I seen so much solidarity, in terms of expectations. So, I don't think it would be correct to say that the Russians and the Chinese want something else, and the Americans everybody wants, top of the agenda, as David Hale says, top of the agenda for everyone, is combating terrorism, there is no question about that."

Nandan Unnikrishnan

"A stable Afghanistan, under Taliban rule—oppressive or not, I'm not getting into that—would distinctly increase China's role in the region. China's BRI would definitely then move ahead and Central Asia, West Asia, and of course, parts of South Asia, would come under increasing influence of the Chinese. From an Indian perspective, given our current relationship with China, it is not necessarily the best scenario. But, at the same time, as I said, it is probably better than the second scenario, where Afghanistan is unstable. I think Ambassador Lodhi has very eloquently described what happens to the region, not only us, but even, let's say, Central Asia and other areas….It is a danger, not just to Pakistan, it's a danger for everyone."

Huma Yusuf

"No, I think this does get at the point that I was trying to make right at the outset, which is that, I think a lot of this, this myth of Pakistan’s leverage, or so-called, control, or puppet mastery of the Taliban, this is outdated and inaccurate and is certainly not rooted in what's to come. A lot of that will have to do with the dispensation that does emerge in Afghanistan and the level of control that a Taliban-led regime based in Kabul would have over the rest of the country, and on the sort of numerous militant groups that are operating in that area, and the fact that, we know that there will never be that kind of neat, centralized control, and we also know that, as activities happen and fingers are pointed here and there, that all groups will constantly try and refer to this idea of plausible deniability, that actually what I see emerging is a scenario where there is more potential for two sovereign states, Pakistan and Afghanistan, to find themselves at odds, and so there's this notion that Pakistan will be the leverage, Pakistan will speak to the Taliban, on behalf of the rest of the world, I just think that that's an outdated notion."

Venkateswaran Lokanathan

"The other question that I think requires a fair deal of deliberation is whether the US will accept a more proactive role for Russia and China in Afghanistan and the region moving forward. Russia has already started playing a more active role in neighboring Central Asia. President Putin has expressed concerns over the spillover of radical Islam into the region. Simultaneously, the presence of certain groups like the ETIM, which is sympathetic to the UYGHER cause in Xinjiang, also raises concern for China, and hence China is also now becoming more actively involved.  It has already begun diplomatic engagement with Taliban, and President Xi, and President Putin, have also agreed to cooperate with developments in Afghanistan, and more importantly against foreign interference. "

Mark Green

"In 2020, Congress created a blue-ribbon panel of experts called the Afghanistan Study Group. Its purpose was to create new recommendations on Afghanistan for policymakers. I was a member of that study group. Our final report called “A Pathway for Peace,” concluded that the best American approach for Afghanistan, required a new overarching regional strategy. The report stated that Afghanistan lies in the middle of a region beset with rivalries and low levels of trust. It saw the potential for a fragile, but real regional consensus, behind a stable and neutral Afghanistan, that is neither a haven for terrorists, nor a fiefdom of the Taliban. We found that a stable Afghanistan would create the potential for regional economic cooperation that could benefit all countries in the region. But we also warned that an unstable Afghanistan risks destabilizing the region, to continue trade and illicit drugs, the attraction of extremist ideologies, and the possible exacerbation of the rivalry between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed powers."

Israeli weapons used against Taliban in Afghanistan

From drones to missiles and armored vehicles, Israeli-made weapons systems helped coalition forces against Taliban fighters. Though Israeli troops have never been on the ground in the war-torn central Asian country, numerous coalition nations used Israeli systems during the 20 years of fighting against the radical jihadist terrorist group.

While many Israeli defense companies have stayed mum on the use of their products in Afghanistan, according to multiple reports, countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and Australia have used their products for years.

Numerous countries used remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) to collect intelligence, and Israeli-made SPIKE missiles were used in battle. Troops were also able to drive around safely in high-intensity areas in Israeli-made MRAP (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected) military light tactical vehicles.

One of the main Israeli weapons systems used by foreign militaries in Afghanistan was drones.

Foreign reports state that Israel is considered a leading exporter of drones and has sold such systems to numerous countries including Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Mexico, Singapore and South Korea.

The German Air Force began operating the Heron TP, manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), in Afghanistan in 2010. They were involved in thousands of missions, logging thousands of flight hours.

The Heron TPs are IAI’s most advanced RPAs with 40-hour endurance, a maximum take-off weight of 11,685 pounds, and a payload of 2,204 pounds. They can be used for reconnaissance, combat and support roles, and can carry air-to-ground missiles to take out hostile targets.

The German pilots were trained in Israel regarding how to operate the RPA and learn about its surveillance capabilities.

The Canadian military and the Australians also flew IAI’s Heron 1 RPA in Afghanistan.

Equipped with satellite data link and electro-optical infrared sensors, the Heron 1 is not only able to provide reconnaissance to ground forces in combat situations, assist in convoying and patrolling, create movement profiles, and carry out long-term monitoring, but it is also able to track down explosives from the air.

Several of them crashed in Afghanistan.

But it wasn’t only the Heron that was flying in Afghanistan’s skies.

Since 2005, the Australian Army in Afghanistan has also flown the Skylark 1 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) manufactured by Elbit Systems.

The Skylark, measuring seven and a half feet, is used by troops for tactical surveillance and close-range counter-terror missions. It can be launched by one or two soldiers, and is operated on the roof of buildings or in the back of armored personnel carriers, providing live video to operators once airborne.

With a range of 10-15 km, the mini-UAV has an exceptionally quiet electric motor and outstanding observation capabilities giving troops beyond-line-of-sight intelligence, enhancing their performance in various mission scenarios.

Australia also flew the Skylark during missions in Iraq.

In addition to RPAs, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems’ Spike NLOS (Non Line Of Sight) missile was used by both the British and Canadians in Afghanistan.

The missile’s precision proved useful in battles against the Taliban. Although the Brits tried to keep its use quiet, they publicly admitted to using the missile, known as Exactor, in 2014.

The Spike NLOS is capable of penetrating 39 inches of armor, and can be operated in either direct attack or mid-course navigation based on target coordinates only. These modes enable the defeat of long-range hidden targets with pinpoint precision, damage assessment, and the obtaining of real-time intelligence.

It has a range of 25 km and can be used with a number of warheads such as heat, fragmentation, PBF (penetration, blast and fragmentation) and PBF/F suited for urban and high-intensity conflicts. The missile, which can be installed on a variety of platforms, provides the gunner with the ability to attack targets at stand-off range and get real-time intelligence and damage assessment following the strikes.

Though Israel does not comment on foreign reports, Iranian media reported in 2019 that troops were sent to Afghanistan to collect intelligence on Iranian military movement.

According to Iran’s Tasnim news agency, Israeli troops operated out of a United States Air Force base in Shindand in the western Afghanistan province of Herat some 75 km from the Iranian border and were collecting intelligence on Iranian movement around the Persian Gulf region.

Russia’s Sputnik News stated at the time that the Israelis were operating “under the flags of the United States and the United Arab Emirates.”

Sputnik quoted an expert on Israel as saying that the Israeli troops were operating under the framework of American forces stationed there, and that the activity was carried out with the knowledge and approval of the Afghan government.

As Western forces leave Afghanistan and the Taliban solidifies its power over the country, the jihadist group has also obtained advanced American weaponry, including some drones.

But with the Canadians, Brits and Germans having ended their fight several years ago, it’s unlikely that the Taliban got their hands on the Israeli-made systems that hunted them for so long.

Who is Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar?

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Taliban’s top political leader, who made a triumphal return to Afghanistan this week, battled the US and its allies for decades but then signed a landmark peace agreement with the Trump administration.

Baradar is now expected to play a key role in negotiations between the Taliban and officials from the Afghan government that the group deposed in its blitz across the country. Taliban say they seek an “inclusive, Islamic” government and claim they have become more moderate since they last held power.

But many remain skeptical, and all eyes are now on Baradar, who has said little about how the group will govern but has proven pragmatic in the past.

Baradar’s biography charts the arc of the Taliban’s journey from an Islamic militia that battled warlords during the civil war in the 1990s, ruled the country in accordance with a strict interpretation of Islamic law and then waged a two-decade insurgency against the US. His experience also sheds light on the Taliban’s complicated relationship with Pakistan.

Baradar is the only surviving Taliban leader to have been personally appointed deputy by the late Taliban commander Mullah Mohammed Omar, giving Baradar near-legendary status within the movement. He is far more visible than the Taliban’s current supreme leader, Maulawi Hibatullah Akhunzada.

On Tuesday, Baradar landed in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar, the birthplace of the Taliban movement he helped found in the mid-1990s. Ending 20 years of exile, he was thronged by well-wishers as he stepped off a Qatari government aircraft and drove off in a convoy.

Baradar, who is in his early 50s, was born in the southern Uruzgan province. Like others who would eventually become Taliban leaders, he joined the ranks of the CIA- and Pakistan-backed Mujahideen to fight against the Soviet Union during its decade long occupation of the country that ended in 1989.

In the 1990s, the country slid into civil war, with rival Mujahideen battling one another and carving out fiefdoms. Warlords set up brutal protection rackets and checkpoints in which their forces shook down travelers to fund their military activities.

In 1994, Mullah Omar, Baradar and others founded Taliban, which means religious students. The group mainly consisted of clerics and young, pious men, many of whom had been driven from their homes and had known only war. Their unsparing interpretation of Islam unified their ranks and set them apart from the notoriously corrupt warlords.

Baradar fought alongside Mullah Omar as he led Taliban through its seizure of power in 1996 and its return to an insurgency following the 2001 US-led invasion.

During the group’s 1996-2001 rule, the president and governing council were based in Kabul. But Baradar spent most of his time in Kandahar, the spiritual capital of Taliban, and did not have an official government role.

The US invaded Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, which had been planned and carried out by Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaida while it was sheltering under Taliban rule. Baradar, Omar and other Taliban leaders fled into neighboring Pakistan.

In the ensuing years, the Taliban were able to organize a potent insurgency based in rugged and semi-autonomous tribal areas along the border. Baradar was arrested in Pakistan’s southern city of Karachi in 2010 in a joint raid by the CIA and Pakistan’s counterterrorism forces.

At the time, he had been making peace overtures to Afghanistan’s then-President Hamid Karzai, but the US was bent on military victory and it appeared that Pakistan wanted to ensure control over any political process. Baradar’s removal empowered more radical leaders within the Taliban who were less open to diplomacy.

Karzai later confirmed the overtures to The Associated Press and said he had twice asked the Americans and the Pakistanis to free Baradar but was rebuffed. Baradar himself refused an offer of release in 2013, apparently because the US and Pakistan conditioned it on his cooperation.

Karzai, who is now involved in talks with the Taliban about shaping the next government, could once again find himself negotiating with Baradar.

By 2018, Taliban had seized effective control over much of Afghanistan’s countryside. The Trump administration, looking for a way out of America’s longest war, persuaded Pakistan to release Baradar that year and began pursuing peace talks with Taliban.

Baradar led the Taliban’s negotiating team in Qatar through several rounds of those talks, culminating in a February 2020 peace agreement. He also met with then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Under the deal, the Taliban agreed to halt attacks on international forces and prevent Afghanistan from again becoming a haven for terror groups in return for a full U.S. withdrawal, now planned for the end of the month.

Last week, Taliban pushed into the country’s cities, seizing nearly all of the country in matter of days and then rolled virtually unopposed into the capital, Kabul.

In his first comment after the capture of Kabul on Sunday, Baradar acknowledged his surprise, saying that “it was never expected that we will have victory in Afghanistan.”

Wearing a black turban and vest over a white robe, the bespectacled Baradar looked straight into the camera.

“Now comes the test,” he said. “We must meet the challenge of serving and securing our nation, and giving it a stable life going forward.”

Fall of Kabul and implications for Pakistan economy

Taliban which had been making rapid advances across Afghanistan in the wake of US evacuation, were finally able to take control of the capital, Kabul, in what was a rather swift, seamless and somewhat peaceful transition. The development finally puts an end to the uncertainty over the political future of Afghanistan.

In contrast to what had been feared, Taliban seek to present a moderate face by offering general amnesty to masses, preserving the infrastructure deployed in the past 20 years while remaining mostly in compliance with agreements forged with the international community, opening up possibility of international recognition of the new political setup. Further, China, Pakistan and Iran are on the same page on maintaining stability in the Afghanistan region.

Rise of new power in Afghanistan

Major regional powers, China, Iran and Pakistan have all showed a willingness to work with the new setup in Afghanistan and help maintain peace in the region. The geographical and political dynamics have changed significantly since the last time Taliban government was in power in Afghanistan with China establishing its strong presence in the region through economic corridors in Pakistan and also in Iran.

The economic corridors in Pakistan and Iran connect landlocked Afghanistan and the central Asian Republics to the sea ports, thus giving them access to global markets. The integrated economic interests of major powers in the region will help bring these players closer and work together and potentially bring peace and economic prosperity in the region.

Implications for Pakistan

From Pakistan’s vantage the peaceful transition has so far has ended concerns for a civil war that could have resulted in unrest on Pakistan’s western border, increasing law and order risks and potentially putting projects under CPEC into jeopardy. Moreover, the threat of an influx of refugees that could further put pressure on already strained fiscal side has been allayed, somewhat.

Further, with Pakistan likely being the preferred partner for the west amongst the Russia-China-Pakistan-Iran quartet to keep its influence, strengthening of relationship could unlock some concessions in med-to-long run while improving prospects of Pakistan’s status with global agencies (IMF, FATF etc.).

Pakistan’s net trade for FY21 with Afghanistan is reported around US$804 million mostly consisting of food related items while cements, pharma, and aluminum cans (PABC) occupy a minimal share. Analysts do not expect any material impact on cements given the strong robust domestic demand and coal alternatively imported through sea while PABC could witness neutral to negative impact given Afghanistan occupying a significant share in sales mix. The company has ventured into other markets to neutralize the impact. Lastly, with the tight border controls in the near term, Pakistan could witness inflow of smuggled products subsiding, opening up prospects for local players (such as in auto parts tyres, and consumer items).

Investment perspective

The fall of Kabul in the hands of Taliban may not turn out to be as negative as feared earlier, especially if the major powers in the region show willingness to work together. Though, still early at this point, a stable and peaceful Afghanistan will have positive spillover effects for Pakistan and the region at large. The potential positive idiosyncrasies related to lasting peace in the region may help expand market multiples in the medium and long term.

What next in Afghanistan?

The Taliban’s swift takeover of Afghanistan has set off a chain reaction of chaos just two weeks before the US was set to officially withdraw the last of its troops in the country.

The fall of Kabul on Sunday came after a week of lightning-fast territorial gains and crumbling government forces that could not hold off the Islamist group that ruled Afghanistan before the arrival of American forces in 2001. Americans, as well as Afghan civilians who worked with the US government, are now scrambling to get out of the country.

While President Biden is standing by his decision to withdraw US troops, he acknowledged Monday that the situation “did unfold more quickly than we’d anticipated.”

Here are the five takeaways from the collapse of the Afghan government and Taliban takeover:

Evacuation has turned desperate 

The scene at Kabul’s international airport descended into chaos Monday as military and civilian flights stalled on the tarmac when thousands of Afghan civilians flooded the runway in desperate search of a way out.

Photos and videos show people surrounding planes, with dozens of them clinging to a US C-17 transport aircraft or running beside it as it tried to take off. In another video, several Afghans were seen falling off the plane as it left the runway.

The surge of panicked civilians grew so quickly that the US military, in the midst of evacuating American personnel, had to halt flights for several hours.

The scene also prompted the Pentagon to send thousands more US troops to the country to help secure the airport, bumping the US military presence from 1,000 to 6,000 in a matter of days to support the evacuation.

At the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, all American personnel were evacuated, leaving unguarded a building that cost the United States nearly US$800 million to construct, according to the State Department. 

Elsewhere in the capital, Taliban fighters went door to door looking for any men who served in the Afghan Special Forces or helped the US military, Fox News reported.

The Taliban has said it would not interfere with US evacuation efforts, but that’s just one of many hurdles to getting tens of thousands of Afghan civilians out of the country. 

The US has pledged to assist more than 80,000 people who qualify for special immigrant visas meant to help Afghans, and their family members, who worked with the US government.

 “The idea that visa processing can provide protection as the country is crumbling and is now in the hands of the Taliban ignores the grim reality on the ground,” said Krish O'Mara Vignarajah, president of Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service, which will help resettle Afghan evacuees.

Afghan women, girls once more at risk 

The United States had long touted gains made in women's rights in Afghanistan as one of the main accomplishments in the country over the past two decades.

But the Taliban takeover means women and girls are once again at risk of losing their freedoms.

From 1996 to 2001, when the Taliban controlled the country and ruled with an extreme interpretation of Islamic law, women and girls were prohibited from attending school, working or leaving their homes unless accompanied by a man. Women were also prohibited from driving and required to cover most of their body, including their face.

Those who broke the rules were sometimes subjected to humiliation and public beatings.

On Monday, CNN’s Clarissa Ward reported that of the women she saw outside their homes in Kabul, many were dressed more conservatively than they were just a week ago.

Taliban leaders, during failed peace talks over the last several years, have assured Western officials that women would be given equal rights as granted by Islam, though many, including numerous US lawmakers, have expressed serious doubts.

“There must be an immediate expansion of the refugee program for Afghan women seeking asylum, whose lives are in jeopardy as the Taliban resumes control and turns back the clock on 20 years of progress for women’s rights. A failure to act now will seal their fate, and the generation of girls who grew up with freedoms, education and dreams of building their country’s future will die with them,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), said in a statement Monday.

In the Pentagon’s press briefing room on Monday afternoon, a female Afghan journalist became emotional over the Taliban takeover of her country and the fate of women and girls there. 

“I'm very upset today because Afghan women didn't expect that overnight all the Taliban [would come],” she said. “They took off my flag. ... Everybody is upset, especially women.”

China, Russia are prepared to move in

While the United States continues to pull out of Afghanistan, China and Russia appear ready to move in, signaling openness to working with the Taliban.

Zamir Kabulov, Moscow’s representative in Kabul, said Russia would not evacuate its embassy in Kabul and would “stay in contact” with Taliban officials in Doha “to work out a permanent mechanism of ensuring safety of our embassy.” 

China, meanwhile, which met with Taliban leaders last month in Beijing, called for a “smooth transition” in Afghanistan. The country also said it is willing to seek “good-neighborliness and friendly cooperation” with the Taliban, signaling it may recognize them as a legitimate government. 

It remains unclear how China's and Russia's approaches to Afghanistan could either hamper or bolster U.S. efforts in the region.

Biden on Monday said Beijing and Moscow “would love nothing more than for the United States to continue to funnel billions of dollars in resources and attention into stabilizing Afghanistan indefinitely.”

Terrorist groups have room to reemerge

The Pentagon is already warning that terrorist groups based in Afghanistan could regain footholds more quickly than expected with the Taliban back in control.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wants to look at whether groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State will be able to strengthen after 20 years of being on the run, Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Monday.

“The secretary certainly believes that in light of recent events that a reassessment of the possibilities for reconstitution of terrorist networks inside Afghanistan is warranted,” Kirby said.

But he added that “we’re in no position at this point just one day after the events in Kabul to make a firm judgment either way or what that's going to look like” and that it's “way too early to make assessments and judgments about what the counterterrorism threat” is going to be. 

Members of al Qaeda who participated in the 9/11 attacks had trained in Afghanistan, making the country a primary target after the terrorist attacks were carried out. 

Last week, thousands of Taliban, al Qaeda and ISIS prisoners were reportedly released from Bagram air base after the Taliban took over the hub of the US war effort.

Lawmakers have been dubious of the Biden administration’s ability to keep terrorists at bay without U.S. troops in the country. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said recently it “would be very very difficult” for Washington to do exactly that.

“I think Afghanistan is lost. Every terrorist around the world is cheering in Syria, in Yemen, in Africa. They've watched the Taliban ... defeat America in effect,” McConnell said during a press conference in Kentucky.

The region is on shakier ground 

The Taliban’s takeover means Afghan citizens are streaming across the border to neighboring countries, and beyond, to get out of the country through any means.

The humanitarian disaster, in which refugees have fled to countries such as Tajikistan, Turkey, Pakistan and Uzbekistan, has already led to strained U.S. relations with regional partners.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday pledged to increase diplomatic and security efforts to prevent a rush of Afghan refugees into his country, warning that the Taliban’s takeover would mean a refugee crisis.

“Turkey is facing a growing migration wave of Afghans transiting through Iran,” Erdoğan said alongside Pakistan's president, Arif Alvi, who is also working to staunch the flow. “We will continue to make efforts to bring stability to the region, starting with Afghanistan.”

Additionally, the quick and chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan is likely to dent America's position on the world stage and undermine efforts to bolster democracy in the region.

Ashraf Ghani must immediately leave Afghanistan to save his life

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is calling on the international community to aid in the country’s fight against Taliban, getting too close to Kabul and fears are growing that the capital could soon be overrun by them.

The US-backed leader said in a televised address on Saturday, his first public appearance in days as Taliban have made significant territorial gains. 

Ghani said he wished to “stop the civil war imposed on Afghans and prevent more innocent deaths and the loss of 20 years of achievements” since US troops first arrived in Afghanistan to topple the Taliban in 2001. 

“We have started consultations, inside the government with elders and political leaders, representatives of different levels of the community as well as our international allies,” he said, as reported by The Associated Press. 

“The consultations are happening at great speed and the results will soon be shared with you dear countrymen,” added the president, who is facing growing pressure to step down amid the crisis. 

The address came as Taliban captured Afghanistan’s Logar province Saturday, with Afghan lawmaker Hoda Ahmadi saying that the group has now reached the Char Asyab district, located just seven miles south of Kabul, according to the AP. 

Ghani is facing diminishing support at home, with thousands of his soldiers surrendering en masse, a move former Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal said indicates the Afghan troops believe the president is not “worth fighting for.” 

The president’s plea to the international community comes as the US and others such as Canada and the United Kingdom are removing large numbers of their diplomats from Afghanistan amid the worsening security situation.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Friday urged the Biden administration to conduct airstrikes against Taliban to support local security forces and prevent the insurgent group from taking control of Kabul, warning that failing to act would allow the security threat to the US to "assuredly grow" and lead to a "catastrophic" humanitarian cost within Afghanistan.

The State Department confirmed to The Hill on Friday that the US Embassy in Kabul had ordered staff to start destroying sensitive material, including “embassy or agency logos, American flags, or items which could be misused in propaganda efforts.”

The US has significantly reduced its military presence there amid President Biden’s goal to remove all troops from the country by the 20th anniversary of the 11th September 2001, terrorist attacks, though the Defense Department this week said it would temporarily be sending an additional 3,000 US troops to assist in the large departure of US diplomats.

US defeat in Afghanistan

As the last men of the dwindling American garrison in Afghanistan pack their bags, there is an echo of the Soviet Union's own withdrawal from the country, more than 30 years ago. But, in truth, Washington's defeat is far greater.

In December 1979, Soviet forces invaded Afghanistan to support the unpopular government of the ruling People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA). They soon found themselves bogged down in a war against Mujahedeen.

Nine years later, the Soviets decided that there had been enough bloodshed and, in May 1988, they began their exit. The final contingent of Soviet troops drove back across the bridge to the USSR in February the following year.

Twelve years later, US troops arrived to fight Taliban. Soldiers of other NATO states then followed. Together, they stayed even longer than the Soviets, but are now on the way out. US President Joe Biden has promised that American soldiers will leave Afghanistan by the end of August.

As the US completes its retreat from its longest war, its enemy is on the march. Lately, Taliban have captured 12 of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals, including the second and third largest cities in the country, Kandahar and Herat, both of which fell on Thursday.

The pace of Taliban advance has been remarkable. In some places, government forces simply ran away without a fight. The Governor of Ghazni province was said to have surrendered his city in exchange for free passage out of the area. US-trained government troops have fled or deserted en masse and, in some cases, gone over to Taliban. It’s fair to say that it’s been a rout, and the Americans haven’t even fully left yet. The government may be able to hold onto the country’s capital Kabul, but even that is no longer certain.

In short, the 20 years of America’s and NATO’s war in Afghanistan has ended in ignominious failure – total and absolute. So, of course, did the Soviets’ war, but not quite so abruptly.

After the last Soviet troops crossed over the Friendship Bridge linking Afghanistan and Soviet Uzbekistan, Mujahideen launched a major offensive, confident that they would be able to defeat the government forces in short order. Their offensive collapsed completely. The Afghan army stood its ground and not a single major population center fell into the hands of their opponents. It was not until two years later, when the post-Soviet Russian government of Boris Yeltsin cut off funding to the Afghans that the PDPA regime finally fell.

The contrast with what has happened this past week could not be clearer. Even after the Soviets had left, the troops they had trained and equipped fought hard and successfully. Today, the troops that America and its allies trained and equipped at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars have scattered to the four winds with only the slightest effort at resistance.

But, to be fair, the problem lies not in army exercises or crates of machine guns. The current batch of Afghans has had plenty of both. They outnumber Taliban and are better supplied. The problem is one of morale: not many of them are willing to die for their government.

The PDPA had a well-deserved reputation for corruption, incompetence, factional in-fighting, and dogmatic, counterproductive policies that alienated the Afghan people, such as its Marxist assaults on religion and private enterprise. Mujahideen, the Taliban’s precursor, enjoyed substantial support from the United States, including signing for the delivery of sophisticated Stinger missiles.

The fact that the Soviet-backed government put up a better fight than its contemporary counterpart can, therefore, only have one explanation, Afghans respect their current rulers even less than they respected the socialist PDPA. And that is really saying something.

All of which begs the questions of why America and NATO spent so long supporting the regime in Kabul, and why the latter got to be so disliked.

The answer to the first question is largely one of prestige. Having installed the current government, Western states felt that their reputation was tied to its survival and thus refused to abandon it even when it became clear that it wasn’t worth supporting.

The answer to the second question is that the awfulness of the current government owes a lot to the policies pursued by Western states.

After Najibullah was overthrown in 1992, Afghanistan suffered a vicious civil war in which drug-running warlords competed for power and inflicted all sorts of atrocities on the Afghan people. When Taliban came along offering fierce but incorruptible justice, many Afghans breathed a sigh of relief and gave them their support.

Canadian General Rick Hiller famously said that Taliban were “detestable murderers and scumbags.” What he failed to note was that Taliban enemies were, on occasion, even worse. When America and its allies moved into Afghanistan, these enemies returned to their homes, this time with the backing of Western powers, and resumed their criminal ways. Unsurprisingly, the locals weren’t too impressed.

Beyond that, Western powers flooded the country with money. Pour cash into an impoverished country without adequate controls, and the consequence will be mass corruption. So it was in Afghanistan.

Not only did this delegitimize the government, but much of the aid flowed down into the hands of Taliban. As John Sopko, the US official responsible for auditing American expenditures in Afghanistan put it, “the end of the US supply chain in Afghanistan is Taliban.” If you want to know who armed and paid for Taliban, the answer is that America did.

US airstrikes in Afghanistan

During this past week, the US military launched several airstrikes in support of Afghan government forces fighting Taliban, including in the strategically important province of Kandahar. It must be kept in mind that at present United States has no airbases in Pakistan or Central Asian countries.

These strikes demonstrate the US intentions to continue supporting Afghan forces with combat aircraft based outside the country, at least until the scheduled conclusion of the US military withdrawal by 31st August 2021.

The US has a variety of combat aircraft based in the Middle East within range of Afghanistan, including warplanes aboard an aircraft carrier in the region and fighters and bombers in the Persian Gulf area.

These are the first known US airstrikes in Afghanistan since Gen. Scott Miller, the top US commander in the country, relinquished his command and left the country. The authority to launch airstrikes against the Taliban has since been in the hands of Gen. Frank McKenzie, the commander of US Central Command, who oversees US military involvement in the greater Middle East.

The United States conducted a total of more than four airstrikes in support of Afghan forces. At least two of the strikes were to destroy military equipment, including an artillery piece and a vehicle that the Taliban had taken from Afghan forces. The Afghans requested those strikes, as well as those targeting Taliban fighting positions, including at least one strike in the southern province of Kandahar.

At a Pentagon news conference Wednesday, Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Taliban now control about half of the 419 district centers in Afghanistan, and while they have yet to capture any of the country’s 34 provincial capitals, they are pressuring about half of them. As the Taliban seize more territory, the Afghan security forces are consolidating their positions to protect key population centers, including Kabul, he said.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that after 31st August the main focus will be on countering threats to the US homeland from extremist groups inside Afghanistan. He added that the administration will provide financial and other kinds of support to Afghan defense forces, even with no combat troops or strike aircraft based there.

 

US occupation has caused enormous damage to Afghanistan, says Ali Akbar Velayati

Ali Akbar Velayati, Secretary General of the World Assembly on Islamic Awakening, on Monday expressed regret at the enormous damage caused by the US military invasion of Afghanistan. He reiterated Iran’s commitment to supporting the Afghan nation on the path of peace, security, and development.

Addressing a virtual conference on Afghanistan hosted by the World Assembly of Islamic Awakening, Velayati warned that despite the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Americans were still maliciously trying to create divisions among Afghans.

He also commended the Afghan people for their courageous struggles with the Western and Eastern occupiers and invaders over the past decades.

Afghans fought the invading Soviet Army in the 1980s, forcing the Kremlin to leave the country in disgrace. After the 11^th September 2001, the United States also invaded Afghanistan and also leaving the after 20 years shamefully. 

Addressing the conference entitled “Afghanistan, Sustainable Peace, and Security”, the veteran politician noted that the United States occupied Afghanistan for 20 years by deploying thousands of soldiers and spending billions of dollars, resulting in severe damage and significant disasters in Afghanistan.

Despite the initial delusion, the United States is humiliatingly withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, although it is still trying to destroy what is left in Afghanistan, regretted Velayati who was Iran’s foreign minister from 1981 to 1997.

The Iranian politician also warned that the United States is engaged in atrocious provocations to create discord among the noble people of Afghanistan.

“However, the elite and educated individuals in Afghanistan are aware of their evil intentions and will thwart these conspiracies,” he pointed out.

Velayati attributed the bloody wars between various ethnic groups in Afghanistan over the past 40 years to foreign provocations and called for vigilance to strengthen brotherhood between all parties that have lived in friendship and peace for thousands of years.

On 8th and 9^th July, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs presided over a round of intra-Afghan negotiations. Representatives of the Afghan government and the Taliban took part in the talks.

The meeting was also attended by high-level figures supporting the Afghan republic.

At the end of two-day Afghan internal talks six statements were released. All parties participating in the meeting recognized the threat of a protracted war in Afghanistan and its damage to the country. In their statement, they also agreed that war is not the solution to the Afghan problem and called for collective efforts to achieve a peaceful and political solution.

Delegations from the Afghan government and the Taliban said in a joint statement on Sunday that they will meet again and plan to expedite peace negotiations after two days of inconclusive talks in Doha.

The negotiators from the rival sides, who have been in Doha since Saturday, said, “The two sides are committed to continue negotiations at a high level until a settlement is reached.”

Can India-Iran alliance bring peace in Afghanistan?

Santosh Mehrotra, an Indian professor said, India and Iran ‑ two emerging Asian powers ‑ can play a key role in establishing peace in Afghanistan, he was talking to The Tehran Times. 

Mehrotra said, “This regional role might emerge if there was a strong role of Iran and India in a transition to peace and progressive development in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban's whole effort would be to prevent that, so that they can keep the support of Pakistan.”

“Both Iran and India can be forces for good in Afghanistan, where peace and development will benefit all the people of Afghanistan.” the visiting professor in the Center for Economic Development at the University of Bath noted.

Talking about India’s economic rise amid the China-US row in Asia,  Mehrotra said, “This balancing act for India would have been easier if China's rise as an economic and military power was accompanied by less, not more, aggressiveness in international affairs. But China's behavior has become more aggressive in many dimensions in Asia and the world. India was left with little choice to joining with the Quad (United States, Japan, Australia and India). China's entering Ladakh territory in 2020 totally disturbed the border equilibrium between India and China prevailing for decades. 

“India and Iran have historically enjoyed very close and warm relations. This has been evident in the long-standing economic relations, especially, India's long agreements to import Iran oil. The US sanctions against Iran have queered this pitch, unfortunately. Nevertheless, India still pressed ahead with the agreement on the Chabahar port development project. With the 2020 election result in the US, the likelihood of US sanctions on Iran continuing may diminish. This will again enable a further deepening of the Indo-Iran ties, which have centuries-old and deep historical roots,” Mehrotra added
 
As regards, Asian emerging powers like Iran, Turkey and India forming a coalition, Mehrotra said, “Asian emerging powers can have a regional role. This regional role might emerge if there was a strong role of Iran and India in a transition to peace and progressive development in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban's whole effort would be to prevent that, so that they can keep the support of Pakistan. Both Iran and India can be forces for good in Afghanistan, where peace and development will benefit all the people of Afghanistan.”
  

Exit of US troops from Bagram: Symbolic and strategic victory for Taliban

“The closure of Bagram Airbase is a major symbolic and strategic victory for Taliban,” said Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

 “If Taliban is able to take control of the base, it will serve as anti-US propaganda fodder for years to come,” said Roggio who is also editor of the foundation’s Long War Journal.

It would also be a military windfall.

The departure of US troops is rife with symbolism. Not least, it’s the second time that an invader of Afghanistan has come and gone through Bagram.

The Soviet Union built the airfield in the 1950s. When it invaded Afghanistan in 1979 to back a communist government, it turned it into its main base from which it would defend its occupation of the country. For 10 years, the Soviets fought the US-backed mujahedeen, dubbed freedom fighters by President Ronald Reagan, who saw them as a front-line force in one of the last Cold War battles.

The Soviet Union negotiated its withdrawal in 1989. Three years later, the pro-Moscow government collapsed, and the mujahedeen took power, only to turn their weapons on each other and kill thousands of civilians. That turmoil brought to power the Taliban who overran Kabul in 1996.

When the US and NATO captured Bagram in 2001, they found it in ruins, a collection of crumbling buildings, gouged by rockets and shells, most of its perimeter fence wrecked. It had been abandoned after being battered in the battles between the Taliban and rival mujahedeen warlords fleeing to their northern enclaves.

After dislodging the Taliban from Kabul, the US-led coalition began working with their warlord allies to rebuild Bagram, first with temporary structures that then turned permanent. Its growth was explosive, eventually swallowing up roughly 30 square miles.

For nearly 20 years, Bagram Airfield was the heart of military power of United States in Afghanistan, a sprawling mini-city behind fences and blast walls just an hour’s drive north of Kabul. Initially, it was a symbol of the US drive to avenge the 9/11 attacks, then of its struggle for a way through the ensuing war with the Taliban.

In just a matter of days, the last US soldiers will depart Bagram. They are leaving what probably everyone connected to the base, whether American or Afghan, considers a mixed legacy.

“Bagram grew into such a massive military installation that, as with few other bases in Afghanistan and even Iraq, it came to symbolize and epitomize the phrase ‘mission creep’,” said Andrew Watkins, Afghanistan senior analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

US Central Command said last week that it’s well past 50% done packing up Bagram, and the rest is going fast. US officials have said the entire pullout of the troops will most likely be completely finished by 4th July 2021. The Afghan military will then take over Bagram as part of its continuing fight against the Taliban — and against what many in the country fear will be a new eruption of chaos.

The enormous base has two runways. The most recent, at 12,000 feet long, was built in 2006 at a cost of $96 million. There are 110 revetments, which are basically parking spots for aircraft, protected by blast walls. GlobalSecurity, a security think tank, says Bagram includes three large hangars, a control tower and numerous support buildings. The base has a 50-bed hospital with a trauma bay, three operating theaters and a modern dental clinic. There are also fitness centers and fast food restaurants. Another section houses a prison, notorious and feared among Afghans.

Jonathan Schroden, of the US-based research and analysis organization CNA, estimates that well over 100,000 people spent significant time at Bagram over the past two decades. “Bagram formed a foundation for the wartime experience of a large fraction of US military members and contractors who served in Afghanistan,” said Schroden, director of CNA’s Center for Stability and Development.

For Afghans in Bagram district, a region of more than 100 villages supported by orchards and farming fields, the base has been a major supplier of employment. The US withdrawal affects nearly every household, said Darwaish Raufi, District Governor.

The Americans have been giving the Afghan military some weaponry and other material. Anything that they are not taking, they are either destroying or selling to scrap dealers around Bagram. US officials say they must ensure nothing usable can ever fall into Taliban hands.

Last week, the U.S. Central Command said it had junked 14,790 pieces of equipment and sent 763 C-17 aircraft loaded with material out of Afghanistan. Bagram villagers say they hear explosions from inside the base, apparently the Americans destroying buildings and material.

 “There’s something sadly symbolic about how the US has gone about leaving Bagram. The decision to take so much away and destroy so much of what is left speaks to the US urgency to get out quickly,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program at the US-based Wilson Center.

“It’s not the kindest parting gift for Afghans, including those taking over the base,” he said.

Inevitably, comparisons to the former Soviet Union have arisen.

Retired Afghan Gen. Saifullah Safi, who worked alongside US forces at Bagram, said the Soviets left all their equipment when they withdrew. They “didn’t take much with them, just the vehicles they needed to transport their soldiers back to Russia,” he said.

The prison in the base was handed over to the Afghans in 2012, and they will continue to operate it. In the early years of the war, for many Afghans, Bagram became synonymous with fear, next only to Guantanamo Bay. Parents would threaten their crying children with the prison.

In the early years of the invasion, Afghans often disappeared for months without any reports of their whereabouts until the International Red Committee of the Red Cross located them in Bagram. Some returned home with tales of torture.

“When someone mentions even the word Bagram I hear the screams of pain from the prison,” said Zabihullah, who spent six years in Bagram, accused of belonging to the faction of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a warlord designated a terrorist by the US. At the time of his arrest it was an offense to belong to Hekmatyar’s party.

Zabihullah, who goes by one name, was released in 2020, four years after President Ashraf Ghani signed a peace deal with Hekmatyar.

Roggio says the status of the prison is a “major concern,” noting that many of its prisoners are known Taliban leaders or members of militant groups, including al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. It’s believed about 7,000 prisoners are still in the prison.

“If the base falls and the prison is overrun, these detainees can bolster the ranks of these terror groups,” Roggio said.

Biden-Ghani meeting

Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani wrapped up two days of meetings with lawmakers and administration officials on Friday, capped with a visit to the White House to meet with President Joe Biden.

At the meeting, Biden pledged the United States would remain committed to Afghanistan with political and economic support even as the US military withdraws from the country.

“The senseless violence has to stop, but it’s going to be very difficult,” Biden said.

“But we’re going to stick with you, and we’re going to do our best to see to it you have the tools you need.”

Earlier in the day, Ghani held a meeting with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon.

At that meeting, Ghani brushed off concerns that his government could fall as soon as six months after US troops depart.

“There have been many such predictions and they have all proven, turned out, false,” Ghani said when reporters asked about the US intelligence assessment.

Ghani also refuted the idea that the United States is walking around from his country is “The false narrative of abandonment is just false,” Ghani said.

At the White House, he also compared his country to pre-Civil War America, saying Afghanistan is in an “1861 moment, like President Lincoln, rallying to the defense of the republic, determined that the republic is defended.

“It's a choice of values, the values of an exclusionary system or an inclusionary system,” Ghani continued.

“We are determined to have unity, coherence, national sense of sacrifice and will not spare anything," Ghani insisted

 

Taliban seizes control of 16 districts in Afghanistan

According to western media, Taliban continue to drive Afghan security forces from various districts throughout the country. Afghan forces are either surrendering or withdrawing from key administrative centers and security outposts. 

Taliban have taken over sixteen districts in 9 provinces, the latest being Kunduz City. Taliban currently controls 118 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, while 190 districts are contested.

Afghan security forces have failed in halting the onslaught, particularly in the north, where Taliban control pace of movement and fighting. Afghan military and police units are either abandoning or surrendering. Afghan forces have only been able to retake control of three districts since May 1.

Taliban offensive in the north is especially troubling, as these provinces are home to many important Afghan government power brokers. There are growing fears that entire northern areas may be taken over of Taliban.

If northern areas go in to Taliban control, the Afghan government will be confined to south and east.

In Kunduz province, the Taliban “seized the [Kunduz City’s entrance before dispersing throughout its neighborhoods,” while fighting has been reported throughout the city, The New York Times reported.

Taliban overran Kunduz City in 2015 and 2016, and held it for a short period of time, before the US airpower and Special Forces played a key role in helping the Afghan military ejecting Taliban from the city. This weekend, Taliban also captured the district of Dasht-i-Archi in Kunduz province.

In one northern province, Takhar, the Taliban seized 8 districts – Baharak, Bangi, Chal, Hazar Somch, Khwaja Bahawuddin, Khuwaja Ghar, Namak Ab, and Yangi Qala – over the course of two days. Fighting has been reported outside of Taloqan, Takhar’s provincial capital, as well as Maimana, the capital of the troubled Faryab province.

In Takhar’s district of Baharak, “Around 110 members of police, army & members of local uprisings surrendered to Taliban” after being surrounded for three days, Bilal Sawary, an independent Afghan journalist reported.

Taliban executed the district head of the National Directorate of Security, which is hated by Taliban, and the “commander of local uprisings,” or tribal fighters that organize to fight the jihadists. In Khwaja Bahauddin district, Taliban overran “a large base and all its facilities,” according to Tariq Ghazniwal, a local Afghan journalist.

Also in northern Afghanistan, the Taliban took control of Chahar Bolak district in Balkh province, Dahan-e-Ghori in Baghlan province, Dara-e-Suf Bala in Samangan province, and Faizabad and Khanaqa in Jawzjan province.

In eastern Afghanistan, the Taliban seized Kharwar in Logar province, and in the southwest, the Taliban took Khash Rod in Nimroz.

Taliban have seized control of more than 50 districts since the US announced in mid-April to withdraw from Afghanistan by 11^th September 2021. The US military is no longer providing air support for Afghan forces as it focuses its efforts on withdrawing from the country.

Many of the districts that have been taken over by Taliban were previously contested, however, a handful of the districts were previously under Afghan government control (including three districts this weekend).

United States entrusts Kabul airport security to Turkey

According to Jake Sullivan, US National Security Adviser, President Joe Biden and President Tayyip Erdogan have agreed to assign Turkey a lead role in maintaining security of Kabul airport after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

It is suspected that since Pakistan is not ready to provide any airbase to United States, a cover up is being created for the use of Kabul airport for the US planes/drones. This may offend those Afghans who enjoy cordial relationship with Islamabad and want the United States to end its occupation of Afghanistan at the earliest.

While the two leaders were prompt in agreeing to a new role for Turkey, they were not able to resolve the long-standing issue of Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 defence systems, Sullivan said, a bitter dispute that strained ties between the Nato allies. He added that dialogue on the issue would continue.

“The clear commitment by the leaders established that Turkey would play a lead role in securing Hamid Karzai International Airport and the two countries are now working to work out the modalities.

The United States takes seriously the concern over the Taliban militia potentially attacking the international missions in Afgha­nistan, he said.

It seems Turkey has accepted the role to ease its relationship with the United States. Analysts are of the view that many of the acts/policies of Turkey are contradictory, which often fail in attaining the ultimate objective.

While Tayyip Erdogan is very vocal against Israel, he has not been able to do what a tiny country like Maldives did, suspending diplomatic relationship with Israel. This is likely to become a big thorn in Turkey-Taliban relationship.

It is no secret that Taliban enjoy good relations with Saudi Arabia, therefore, a proxy war may break out in Kabul. Saudi-Turkish relations have severed after the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Embassy in Turkey.

Joe Biden faces resistance on withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan

President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday of a complete withdrawal of United States from Afghanistan by 11^th September this year. The announcement aims at closing the longest war of the United States.

However, many analysts, even within the US, remain skeptical of sustainable peace in Afghanistan, which has reduced to rudiments in two decades of fighting.

As officials disclosed Biden’s pullout plans, the US intelligence community renewed deep concerns about the outlook for the US-backed government in Kabul, which is clinging to an eroding stalemate.

“The Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support,” said the US assessment, which was sent to Congress.

Kabul continues to face setbacks on the battlefield, and the Taliban are confident that they can achieve military victory.

The Democratic President had faced the 1st May withdrawal deadline, set by his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, who tried but failed to pull the troops out before he left office.

Biden’s decision to keep 2,500 troops in Afghanistan past that 1^st May 1 deadline, but officials suggested troops could fully depart before 11^th September, the US troop numbers in Afghanistan peaked at more than 100,000 in 2011.

“There is no military solution to the problems plaguing Afghanistan, and we will focus our efforts on supporting the ongoing peace process,” a senior administration official said.

It remains unclear how Biden’s move would affect a planned 10-day summit about Afghanistan starting on 24^th April in Istanbul that is due to include the United Nations and Qatar.

Taliban, which were ousted from power in 2001 by the US-led troops, said they would not take part in any summits that would make decisions about Afghanistan until all foreign forces had left the country.

Critics said the departure plan appeared to surrender Afghanistan to an uncertain fate, something that experts say was perhaps inevitable.

 “There is no good way that the US can withdraw from Afghanistan. It cannot claim victory, and it cannot wait indefinitely for some cosmetic form of peace,” said Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.

Democratic Senator Jack Reed, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, called it a very difficult decision for Biden.

“There is no easy answer,” Reed said.

US officials can claim to have, years ago, decimated al Qaeda’s core leadership in the region. But ties between the Taliban and al Qaeda elements persist.

By withdrawing without a clear victory, the United States opens itself to criticism that a withdrawal is a de facto admission of failure.

The war began as a search for al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden following the Islamist militant group’s 9/11 attacks, when hijackers slammed airplanes into the World Trade Center in New York City and the Pentagon outside Washington, killing almost 3,000 people.

Successive US presidents sought to extricate themselves from Afghanistan, but those hopes were confounded by concerns about Afghan security forces, endemic corruption in Afghanistan and the resiliency of a Taliban insurgency that enjoyed safe haven across Afghanistan.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell accused Biden of planning to “turn tail and abandon the fight in Afghanistan.”

“Precipitously withdrawing US forces from Afghanistan is a grave mistake,” McConnell said, adding that effective counterterrorism operations require presence and partners on the ground.

Even Biden’s allies in Congress fretted about the impact a withdrawal would have on human rights, given the gains - particularly for women and girls - in Afghanistan in the past two decades.

The senior administration official said US troops were not the best solution for preserving human rights gains, saying that aggressive diplomatic, humanitarian and economic measures are needed instead.

Ending Afghan war remains daydreaming

The United States recently drafted proposals to end the conflict in Afghanistan, but its several features are being opposed by Taliban. The ‘Peace Plan’ calls for the current Afghan constitution to serve as the framework for a future constitution, elections and power sharing, all of which have been flatly rejected by the Taliban in the past.

The plan was sent on 28th February this year to Afghan government and Taliban by Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation.

The proposal includes three parts: 1) Guiding Principles for Afghanistan Future, 2) Transitional Peace Government and Political Roadmap, and 3) Permanent and Comprehensive Ceasefire. All the three negate Taliban’s interpretation of Islam.

The Islamic Emirate has been engaged in a struggle and Jihad for the past one and a half decade to establish an Islamic government in Afghanistan. They have increased political efforts to come to mutual understanding with the world in order to solve the current ongoing situation.

Taliban insist that this understanding does not mean stopping Jihad or accepting the constitution of the stooge Kabul administration. Islamic Emirate is utilizing its political wing alongside its military presence and Jihad to realize the national and Islamic aspirations of the nation and its martyrs.

At the Moscow conference in November 2018, Taliban had said that the Afghan constitution has been copied from the West and has been imposed on Afghanistan’s Muslim society under the shadow of occupation.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan believes that the Constitution must be based on principles of Islamic religion, national interests, historical achievements and social justice. The Taliban has insisted that only Islamic scholars of its liking can draft a new constitution.

The future Constitution should provide for free and fair elections for Afghanistan’s national political leadership. Ultimate authority to take decisions of paramount national importance rests with the country’s elected government officials. 

In March 2020, just one week after signing Doha Agreement, Taliban issued a religious decree calling for installation of an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which will be led by Taliban Emir Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada.