Baradar to lead new Afghan government

According to Reuters report, Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is likely to lead a new Afghan government. One of the primary concerns is; can Taliban govern a country facing economic meltdown, a humanitarian disaster and threats to security and stability from rival groups.

Baradar, who heads the Taliban's political office, will be joined by Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, the son of late Taliban co-founder Mullah Omar, and Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, in senior positions in the government.

"All the top leaders have arrived in Kabul, where preparations are in final stages to announce the new government," a Taliban official told Reuters.

Haibatullah Akhundzada, the Taliban's supreme religious leader, will focus on religious matters and governance within the framework of Islam, another Taliban source said.

Taliban seizing Kabul on 15th August, after sweeping across most of the country, have faced resistance in the Panjshir Valley, where there have been reports of heavy fighting and casualties.

Several thousand fighters of regional militias and remnants of the government's armed forces have massed in the rugged valley under the leadership of Ahmad Massoud, son of former Mujahideen commander Ahmad Shah Massoud.

While Taliban have spoken of their desire to form a consensus government, there are forecast that the interim government would be formed solely by Taliban members.

It would comprise 25 ministries, with a consultative council, or shura, of 12 Muslim scholars, the source added.

Also being planned within six to eight months is a loya jirga, or grand assembly, bringing together elders and representatives across Afghan society to discuss a constitution and the structure of the future government, the source said.

Western powers say they are prepared to engage with the Taliban and send humanitarian aid, but that formal recognition of the government and broader economic assistance will depend on action - not just promises - to safeguard human rights.

The United States, European Union and others have cast doubt on the movement's assurances. Many Afghans, especially women and those with connections to the former government or Western coalition forces, now fear for their security and even lives.

The European Union is ready to engage with Taliban but the Islamist group must respect human rights, including those of women, and not let Afghanistan again become a base for terrorism, the EU foreign policy chief said on Friday.

The US administration has no plans to release billions in Afghan gold, investments and foreign currency reserves parked in the United States that it froze after the Taliban's takeover.

Who is providing arsenal to National Resistance Front?

After weeks of fruitless negotiations between Taliban’s political leadership and senior leaders of National Resistance Front in Panjshir, Taliban launched a multi-pronged attack on Panjshir Valley beginning 31st August 2021. 

Taliban began assault on Panjshir immediately after the US military pulled out of Kabul airport and ended efforts to evacuate American citizens and Afghan allies.

According to conventional media reports, National Resistance Front has mostly successfully warded off Taliban by virtue of easily defending positions in the mountainous region, inflicting heavy casualties on Taliban.

Prior to Taliban incursions, the nascent resistance claimed it controlled four districts in Baghlan and Parwan provinces outside of the Panjshir Valley. These districts provided a cushion for the anti-Taliban militia to gather Afghan security forces who did not surrender to Taliban.

However, Taliban recaptured the crucial district of Dih Saleh in eastern Baghlan province, which granted the group access to the Khawak Pass that leads into the heart of Panjshir. Along with Khawak, Taliban sent militants to the southern gate of the Panjshir Valley at the town of Gulbahar, and Anjuman, a critical pass in the north in Badakhshan province. Despite its numerical superiority, Taliban was not able to break the defensive lines of the resistance forces. 

In the south, Taliban massed forces in the district of Jabul-Saraj in Parwan in hopes of overrunning the National Resistance Front’s defenses in Gulbahar. Intense fighting waged for two days, as reports emerged of Taliban militants advancing past the initial defensive positions into Shotul district in Panjshir. On social media, pro-Taliban accounts continued circulating videos claiming that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s forces had taken control of Shotul. However, neither Taliban officials nor their more credible social media supporters have posted similar information, indicating that the claims are false. The Taliban does appear to have controlled the pass for a period of time.

The reports indicate that the NRF was able to expel the Taliban from Shotul as fighting continued further south near Gulbahar. National Resistance Front spokesman Fahim Dashty corroborated those reports, stating “the Taliban has spread rumors that they have entered parts of Panjshir. These are psychological operation (PsyOp) and propaganda. We assure full control over all the entrances of Panjshir. [The] Taliban have made multiple attempts to enter Shotul from Jabul-Saraj, and failed each time.” 

On the western border of Panjshir, Taliban used the Khawak Pass to probe the NRF’s defenses. According to National Resistance Front officials, the initial attack was repelled easily, but Taliban continued sending forces. Pro Taliban sources posted videos of Taliban vehicles and soldiers climbing the Khawak Pass to enter the Panjshir Valley in order to divide the resistance forces down the middle and overwhelm the weakened units. While the numbers could not be independently confirmed, pro-resistance reporters noted that 40 Taliban fighters were killed within the first 24 hours of fighting near the pass. Additionally, video from an ambush site in the Khawak Pass has gone viral, depicting resistance commandos decimating Taliban fighters on the road below.

That video gave credence to the resistance claim of staving off the Taliban assault in the Khawak Pass, as the terrain granted a sizable advantage to the defenders of the valley. The most recent reports suggested that pro-resistance fighters from Andarab have retaken the Khawak Pass, halting further Taliban incursions, although that information could not be independently verified. 

In the northeast, the Taliban also attempted to enter the Panjshir Valley through the Anjuman Pass near Badakhshan. Given the lack of reporting on clashes in the northeast, it is likely that this was not a main line of effort for the Taliban and that the resistance forces were able to easily defend the pass from the assault. A former Afghan National Army commando reported that the Anjuman Pass is heavily guarded by elite units who have inflicted heavy casualties on any Taliban fighters who attempted to enter the valley.  

Furthermore, reports emerged of Taliban employing Al Qaeda and foreign fighters to attack in Panjshir. Originally, that claim was propagated by Massoud’s forces in Panjshir. However, videos surfaced of militants speaking Arabic and Persian – among other languages on their way to the Khawak Pass in Baghlan. Furthermore, in the aftermath of the successful NRF ambush at Khawak, militia leaders are claiming that they eliminated both Taliban and Al Qaeda units.

While the Taliban do have advantages in both manpower and firepower, Panjshir’s terrain provides the National Resistance Front with easily defendable positions, enabling the resistance to continue to withstand the Taliban onslaught. As a result, the National Resistance Front has thus far been successful in maintaining the territorial integrity of Panjshir and resisting incursions by the Taliban.

As fighting continues, the lack of declarations of victory by the Taliban and its supporters on social media would indicate that the resistance has the upper hand, at least temporarily.