Pakistan posts current account deficit in January

Pakistan has posted current account (CA) deficit of US$420 million in January 2025 as against a surplus of US$474 million in December 2024.

This was the first CA deficit since September 2024, shrinking the CA surplus during first seven months of the current financial year to US$682 million (which still compares well with a deficit of US$1.8 billion during 7MFY24).

A key reason for the deficit was the increase in goods imports (up by US$560 million MoM), about half of which was due to higher petroleum imports. This showed flat imports, which makes the negative CA balance less concerning. 

Goods trade deficit expanded to US$2.5 billion in January 2025 from US$1.8 billion a month ago, largely due to higher imports (up 11% MoM to US$5.4 billion) while exports fell 4% to US$2.9 billion.

Petroleum imports rose 25%MoM to US$1.6 billion, as compared to an average US$1.2 billion over the previous six months – despite January being an off-peak month for petroleum consumption (lower mobility during winter).

Overall goods imports were nearly flat MoM and petroleum imports fell 12% MoM to US$1.3 billion. The higher imports were due to a temporary difference (SBP data is cash based; and the payment for deliveries of previous months came due in January).

Goods exports were broadly flat around US$2.9 billion, but Textile exports were up a notable 14% MoM to US$1.7 billion. Food exports were down 19%MoM (rice exports fell 11%MoM).

Remittances were reported at US$3.0 billion but are likely to rise in the coming months' with the commencement Ramadan falls in March. Remittances increased 32%YoY during 7MFY25, to US$20.8 billion.

A narrow spread between the interbank and kerb exchange rates and a big outflow of skilled workers in recent years (driven by the economic crisis of 2022-23) were the key drivers for the increase in remittances.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan fell to US$11.4 billion by end January from US$11.7 billion at the start of the month, manlily due to debt repayments of about US$500 million and CA deficit.

Next IMF review is due in early March 2025, a favorable review should unlock the next US$1 billion tranche.

Pakistan is scheduled to launch a US$200 million panda bond auction in China by June 2025.

 

EU to consider lifting sanctions on Syria

Reportedly, the European Union (EU) will meet on 24 February to discuss lifting sanctions on Syria. Internal European politics and concerns raised by Greece and Cyprus over Turkey's growing influence in the region could slow the process.

Speaking to Argus on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, representative for foreign affairs Kaja KallasKallas said the prospect of lifting sanctions on Syria looked promising.

France on February 14 convened an international conference on Syria in Paris, bringing together representatives from G7 nations, the EU, the UN, the Arab League, and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The participants issued a final statement calling for support of Syria's political transition, but the US did not join that statement.

The US sources told Argus that the issues raised in the statement are things Washington has not decided on, since US president Donald Trump's administration is still formulating its policy regarding Syria.

Another source with knowledge of ongoing European talks on Syria said Greece and Cyprus are more reluctant to lift sanctions on Syria. Any EU action will have to be agreed upon by all of the bloc's members.

Both countries are leery of ties between Turkey and the Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant faction in the new Syrian government.

Greece and Cyprus are worried about an oversized Turkish influence in the eastern Mediterranean following the collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in December.

Sanctions remain one of the biggest obstacles to Syria's recovery.

Damascus has been struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders largely because of those sanctions.

Shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels there over concerns tankers being sanctioned or stranded.

Last month the US waived sanctions prohibiting energy trade with Syria, but the country is still under EU and British sanctions, which may have narrowed the pool for bidding.

 

Iran key economic link in West Asia

Abdolnaser Hemmati, economy minister has stated that regional economic cooperation is incomplete without Iran’s participation, emphasizing the country's strategic role in linking the Persian Gulf to Central Asia.

Hemmati said that amid maximum pressure conditions, strengthening economic ties with neighboring and friendly countries could help Iran navigate current challenges.

He made these remarks at a conference organized by Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which focused on economic resilience and the role of regional cooperation in overcoming economic pressures, risks, and shocks.

On the sidelines of the conference, Hemmati met with at least nine ministers, the head of a central bank, regional development bank leaders, and IMF officials, IRIB reported.

He highlighted two key takeaways from these discussions:

First, despite years of economic pressure, Iran has demonstrated resilience, a point that was acknowledged by its counterparts as a case study worth examining.

Second, regional economic collaboration is seen as incomplete without Iran, as the country serves as a bridge connecting the Persian Gulf to Central Asia.

Hemmati noted that Iran’s strategy under the president’s directives is to prioritize economic cooperation with regional and neighboring countries amid external pressures.

He stressed that the meetings confirmed this approach is feasible, with multiple ministers affirming their willingness to enhance economic ties with Iran.

In discussions with Saudi officials and other counterparts, Hemmati emphasized that sustainable political relations require robust economic cooperation.

He indicated that preliminary talks for expanding economic ties had taken place and that tangible outcomes would emerge in the future.

 

 

Trump sounds Napoleon Bonaparte

Fears that the United States is in the midst of a constitutional crisis—or something significantly worse ‑ intensified Saturday after President Donald Trump wrote in a social media post, "He who saves his country does not violate any law," a variation of a quote attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.

If Trump successfully defies the courts, the only remaining obstacle to dictatorship will be public revulsion, national popular protest, and the hope that such a reaction would cause Trump to retreat and, at long last, recall some fraction of the Republican Party to its constitutional duty.

Trump's post on X—the platform owned by billionaire shadow government leader Elon Musk—came as his administration continued its sweeping and destructive assault on the federal government and workforce, running roughshod over the law in the process.

Trump's post Saturday was the latest brazen signal that the president doesn't recognize limits on his authority to impose his far-right agenda.

New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie called Trump's message "the single most un-American and anti-constitutional statement ever uttered by an American president."

Since taking office less than a month ago, Trump and Musk have moved aggressively to dismantle federal agencies and remove any officials who could shine light on or obstruct their efforts.

Trump, his handpicked Cabinet officials, and Musk have also disregarded or openly attacked the other two co-equal branches of government, accusing judges who have moved to halt or limit the new administration's actions of being Democratic partisans.

In some cases, the Trump administration has actively defied rulings from federal courts, an alarming indication of what's to come.

Yasmin Abusaif and Douglas Keith of the Brennan Center for Justice noted Friday, "The last time the United States saw widespread open defiance of court orders by elected officials was when governors in Southern states refused to integrate their schools after the Supreme Court ruled against segregation in public education in Brown v. Board of Education."

"President Dwight Eisenhower—though he was no fan of the court's decision—ultimately dispatched troops to the South to help enforce the ruling, saying, “The Supreme Court has spoken and I am sworn to uphold the constitutional process in this country, and I will obey,” Abusaif and Keith continued.

"The governors' efforts to defy court orders are widely acknowledged as one of the most shameful periods in US history."

Frank Bowman, a law professor and former federal and state prosecutor, wrote for Slate last week. "With each passing day, the practical ability of the courts to stop, or even materially hinder, the catastrophe diminishes."

Courtesy: Common Dreams

The Day Arafat Visited Iran

On February 18, 1979, six days after the victory of the Islamic Revolution, Yasser Arafat, Chairman, Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) arrived in Tehran on a sudden and unannounced visit. He was the first foreign guest who visited Iran to meet Imam Khomeini in Tehran. He congratulated him and the Iranian nation over the victory of the Islamic Revolution.

Arafat was detested by the King Mohammad Reza Shah, a close ally of the Zionist occupying Israeli regime. Upon arrival from Damascus at Mehrabad Airport in Tehran, he told reporters, “Iran and Imam Khomeini showed that our Umma (Muslims) will never give up. The Iranians broke the chains tied around the Palestinians. This great revolution of yours is the guarantee of our victory.”

"Your revolution was like an earthquake that sent shockwaves across the globe and trembled Israel and imperialism,” the PLO chairman also said in his interview at Mehrabad Airport.

According to media reports, when Arafat was asked whether the Palestinian movement felt “stronger” since the Iranian uprising, he replied, “Definitely, it has changed completely the whole strategy and policy in this area. It has been turned upside down.”

The oppressed Palestinian nation was just one of the many Muslim and non-Muslim nations that were inspired by the Islamic Revolution in Iran. The victory of the Islamic Revolution was a very important, decisive, and promising factor for the future of the Palestinians' struggle.

The victory of the Islamic Revolution brought lots of joy among Muslim Palestinians, especially in the occupied territories and among the people of Lebanon.

Palestinian fighters took to the streets of occupied cities and refugee camps across the occupied lands and fired salvos of celebratory gunfire into the sky to express their joy over the Islamic Revolution's victory.

The visit was a striking sign of the turn in Iran's foreign policy towards the Palestinian issue, the New York Times reported about the visit at the time. The Shah had maintained relations with the usurping Israeli regime and furnished the regime with about 60 percent of its oil needs, the Times report added.

The Pahlavi regime initially refused to recognize Israel but after the Shah tightened his grip on power, his regime established overt and covert ties with the occupying regime. An unofficial Israeli embassy was operating in Tehran for years to advance the interests of the Zionists in Iran.

Simultaneously with the visit of the Palestinian delegation in Tehran, a sign that read "Palestine Embassy" was installed at the top of the front door of that unofficially declared embassy building in downtown the capital in the presence of Arafat.

The embassy used to be like an espionage center. Israeli security experts helped in building the notorious Pahlavi regime’s secret police known as SAVAK. They contributed much to SAVAK's personnel training.  Israeli intelligence services and SAVAK were in close contact, oppressing the freedom-seeking movement in Iran before the revolution.

Israeli regime’s high-ranking officials repeatedly visited Iran to hold meetings with the Shah regime’s authorities, despite sparking anger among Muslim nations.

Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution led by Imam Khomeini reversed course in line with Muslim people’s demands and the country severed all diplomatic and trade ties with the usurping Israeli regime. Even before the revolution, many Iranians were in Lebanon to help the oppressed of the Shia community and the Palestinian refugees there who were under aggression by the Zionist regime in the south of the country.

In the meeting, Imam Khomeini stressed to Arafat that leftist Arab nationalism and reliance on foreign powers would not direct the Palestinian struggle toward victory. Instead, the Imam told Palestinians that only trusting in God Almighty and relying on the holy Quran and Islamic teachings would show the way forward to achieve the goal of liberation of the occupied Palestinian lands.

“The Shah too pinned hope on the support from America, the United Kingdom, China, Israel, etc. But their support was not too strong. Only support the God bestows is reliable,” Imam Khomeini further stressed.

Imam Khomeini further stressed that the Palestinian issue was an issue of the entire Islamic world, emphasizing the need for supporting Palestinians uprising as a religious duty that has to be shouldered by all Muslim nations, not only in their political struggle but also on the battlefield and armed struggle with the usurpers of holy Quds and their backers.

Nearly a decade after meeting with Imam Khomeini in 1988 amid indifference to the Palestinians suffering on the part of Arab rulers, Arafat, charmed by the infeasible two-state solution bid, gave in to pressures and began to negotiate with the Israeli regime, followed by signing the Oslo Accord in which the PLO acknowledged the State of Israel and pledged to reject armed struggle. But all this had a devastating impact on the struggle of Palestinians.

In the years following the Islamic Revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran helped different Muslim nations in the region to forge a powerful alliance of Resistance forces against the occupying regime.

Tehran also helped in globalizing the Palestinian nation. It was Imam Khomeini who named the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan the International Quds Day during which Muslims across the globe show their solidarity with the Palestinians.

Unlike Arab nationalism, which suffered humiliating defeats against the Israeli regime in both the 1967 and the 1973 wars, the Resistance came out victorious on many battlefields against the usurping regime and its Western backers.

The Resistance inspired by the Iranian revolution has now become a global movement and has found supporters among freedom seekers all around the globe, even among people in Western countries.

Today, Iran is proud of its assisting role in creating a powerful Resistance movement that has waged a successful battle against the most barbaric regime in history.

 Courtesy: Tehran Times

Trump an accomplice of Netanyahu in Gaza genocide

After US president Donald Trump announced to “Takeover” Gaza, the suspicion started developing that he is a partner of Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu in the Gaza genocide. The most substantial evidence came on Sunday, February 16, 2025 when a shipment of MK-84 2,000 bombs arrived in Israel.

The arrival of shipment in Israel was confirmed by the Defense Ministry, officially ending an approximate nine-month freeze by the Biden administration, which the Trump administration reversed upon entering office.

Reportedly, the shipment came in as the IDF was considering renewing the war in Gaza in the coming two weeks should Hamas cease delivering hostages according to the Phase I deal schedule or should the sides fail to reach a deal for continuing hostage releases in Phase II.

The MK-84 is an unguided 2,000 pound bomb, which can rip through thick concrete and metal, creating a wide blast radius.

It may be recalled that the Biden administration declined to clear them for export to Israel out of concern about the impact on densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip.

The Biden administration has sent thousands of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel after the October 07, 2023 but later held up one of the shipments. The hold was lifted by Trump last month.

"The munitions shipment that arrived in Israel tonight, released by the Trump Administration, represents a significant asset for the Air Force and the IDF and serves as further evidence of the strong alliance between Israel and the United States," Defence Minister Israel Katz said late on Saturday.

Washington has delivered lethal arms to Israel worth billions of dollars since Israeli incursion started in Gaza in October 2023.

India-US Relations: Implications for Pakistan

The evolving relationship between the United States and India under the leadership of President Donald Trump demands closer attention of Pakistan’s ruling junta. This developing alliance raises concerns in Islamabad, as the strengthening ties between the two countries may deepen the already strained relations between the US and Pakistan.

Recent developments prompted Pakistan’s foreign office to publicly express its concerns following a meeting between President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A major point of contention was Trump’s offer to sell advanced military technologies, including F-35 jets, to India. This could have serious implications for Pakistan’s defense capabilities.

The joint communiqué issued after the meeting highlighted concerns about Pakistan's role in terrorism, calling for Pakistan to “expeditiously bring to justice” those responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2016 Pathankot incident. It further emphasized the need to prevent Pakistani territory from being used for cross-border terrorism.

Additionally, the appointment of S. Paul Kapur, a scholar of Indian origin known for his hawkish stance on Pakistan, as the US representative for South and Central Asia is seen as another sign of Washington’s increasingly critical view of Islamabad. His nomination adds to a growing list of individuals in the new US administration who are vocal critics of Pakistan’s policies.

Some vocal Pakistani expatriates in the United States, who supported Trump during his campaign, have been pushing for a tougher stance on Islamabad. This situation places the Pakistani government in a difficult position, it will once again have to prove its strategic value to US policymakers.

Meanwhile, New Delhi appears to be using its growing economic influence to deflect international scrutiny over its involvement in global assassination and terrorism networks, while simultaneously shifting the blame onto Pakistan.

In light of these challenges, Pakistan must adopt a more proactive approach in diplomacy, actively establish its credibility and strengthen its global position. Despite Pakistan’s long-standing engagement in the global war on terrorism and its ongoing counterterrorism cooperation with the US, the heavy toll on its people in social and economic terms remains largely unrecognized and underappreciated.

Moving forward, Pakistan needs to reassess its foreign and security policies, aligning them more closely with the expectations of its international allies while safeguarding its national interests.