Sunday, 3 August 2025

More countries likely to recognize Palestine

According to The Jerusalem Post, many people in Israel are convinced that over the past week, Hamas has won a “hunger narrative”. Countries like France and Britain are talking about recognizing the state of Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September.

Israel says Hamas are liars, they fake evidence, ride in ambulances, and hide in schools, and much of the world is fooled, and some UN agency workers are complicit.

The single image that may have shifted global perception most in recent weeks was of a supposedly starving Gaza boy, later revealed to have had a severe pre-existing condition. Millions saw the image; thousands saw the correction. Yes, it’s journalistic malpractice, and yes, it’s quite unfair.

Yet none of that changes the underlying reality. There is no winning the semantic argument over whether what’s happening in Gaza constitutes hunger, malnutrition, starvation, or famine. What’s beyond debate is that people are suffering – from lack of access to food, but also medicine, shelter, and a functioning infrastructure. Gaza, much of which is literally destroyed, is not self-sufficient.

Meanwhile, Israel is using its own narrative that is certainly no less dishonest. Many Israelis argue that no one should be required to send aid to their enemy. However, this war is nearly unprecedented, an enemy territory, fully sealed off, governed by a terrorist group that feeds off the suffering of its own population.

In addition, when Israeli ministers – including Itamar Ben-Gvir just last weekend – openly call for all aid to be halted, it becomes impossible to deny that collective punishment has been normalized. That call alone will be widely seen as a war crime under the Fourth Geneva Convention.

Gaza is blockaded from every direction by both Israel and Egypt. Civilians can’t leave — not to Israel, not to Egypt. In Gaza, millions of innocents are trapped.

Meanwhile, Israel has been moving much of the population around, more or less like cattle, for 21 months. They’ve been herded here, told to concentrate there. There’s talk of a so-called “humanitarian city” that would be a tent camp for a million people. People speak seriously of getting the Gazans to all leave.

Yet no country has agreed to take them, and nobody serious will view people leaving a bombed-out ruin as having done so willingly. All of this will be viewed as massive ethnic cleansing. Meanwhile, the idea of Israeli settlements in Gaza is being floated again – another war crime, normalized in real time.

How many Israelis would have supported, after October 07, a war that drags on for two years, kills tens of thousands of innocent people and hundreds of IDF soldiers, and does not prioritize the return of the hostages?

How many are really prepared for the coming legal complications for everyday Israeli citizens as they travel?

Yet this madness has been normalized, not because the public truly supports it, but because of the nonstop propaganda drumbeat inside the country. Outside, Israel still has friends – because its case against Hamas is excellent – but only a few who agree with the war policy, and that includes Jews and Zionists who are in no way fooled by Hamas.

Inside Israel, the normalization of madness has been built on three main pillars.

First, the narrative that there are “no innocents in Gaza.” It’s probably true that most people in Gaza hate Israel. The idea that it makes them combatants – and that this extends to little children (something I’ve tried to argue against on TV panels with seemingly sane people who claimed it) – is grotesque. No one outside of Israel buys it, and it is exactly the kind of discourse that has driven the charges of genocide. Israel’s supporters are mostly reduced to claiming this is a fringe view; very sadly, it is not.

Second, the Israeli media rarely shows the full horror of what’s happening in Gaza. Editors know what their audience wants. Many Israelis lack patience for scenes of Palestinian suffering, in part because the “no innocents” narrative has taken root, in part because they have accepted that war is terrible, and in part due to their own trauma. So even if most people know what’s happening on some level, they don’t feel it.

Third, there’s the deeply embedded belief that this is all Hamas’s fault. Hamas started the war, and Hamas could end it by surrendering. But Hamas is a terrorist group that doesn’t care about people, and Israel is a sovereign state that thinks it’s a light unto the nations. Israel was supposed to be the adult in the room. It needed to find a better way – or at the very least to make this one quick and decisive.

Instead, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has engineered a long war. Every off-ramp has been rejected. “Day after” planning has been blocked. The Palestinian Authority – the only plausible alternative to Hamas – has been relentlessly undermined and demonized (even as it continues, daily, its security coordination with the IDF in the West Bank).

The extremists who dominate the coalition don’t want an alternative. They want to occupy Gaza, resettle it, and push out its population.

Netanyahu has also insisted that accountability for October 7 must wait until the war ends. The strategy has been to gaslight, obfuscate, and confuse with propaganda and moral gray zones, to a tragic extent, it has worked. That’s why the streets are not full of people demanding an end.

The foreign media has had no unimpeded access to Gaza since the start of the war – only a small number of tightly controlled “embeds”. As a result, international outlets are forced to rely on reports from Palestinian journalists, and then Israel complains that those reports are biased.

Israel fears that letting foreign journalists in would put them at risk and that if any were killed, Israel would be blamed.

Bangladesh ends three-year spell of deficits

According to the Bangladesh Bank data, country’s balance of payments returned to a surplus in the fiscal year 2024-25, ending a three-year spell of deficits.

The turnaround has been attributed to stronger remittance inflows, foreign aid, a flexible exchange rate, and tighter fiscal measures.

The overall balance of payments posted a surplus of US$3.3 billion at the end of FY25, bouncing back from a US$4.3 billion deficit a year ago.

The country recorded deficits of US$8.22 billion in FY23 and US$5.38 billion in FY22. The last time the external balance was in surplus was in FY21, when it stood at US$9.27 billion.

The balance of payments tracks the difference between what the country earns from the rest of the world and what it spends abroad.

In its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for the July-December period of FY26, the central bank said the external sector’s recovery was evident in the return to a surplus, the rise in foreign exchange reserves, and a more stable exchange rate.

It also said the main driver of this improvement was the current account balance, which returned to surplus after a large deficit. The financial account also posted a surplus, though to a lesser extent than in previous years.

The current account recorded a US$1 billion surplus in FY25, which was US$6.6 billion in deficit in FY24. Meanwhile, the financial account ended the just-concluded year with a US$3.2 billion surplus.

The recovery was powered by higher remittance inflows and strong export earnings, while sluggish imports also played a role. The current account swung to a surplus of US$981 million, a remarkable improvement on the previous year’s shortfall.

“The current account turned positive because remittance inflows have been strong. That’s one aspect. The second aspect is the financial account, which previously had a large deficit,” Mustafizur Rahman, distinguished fellow at local think tank Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told The Daily Star.

He said the financial account benefited from loans and assistance from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Asian Development Bank.

“With both the financial account and the current account now in surplus, the overall balance of payments has turned positive,” he said.

“This is certainly a positive development.”

“As a result, two things have happened. T exchange rate has become more stable, and if there is any pressure on the exchange rate, the Bangladesh Bank has also created a half-billion-dollar fund to intervene in the market, when necessary,” said the economist.

“So overall, this is definitely a good development for the economy, at least in terms of the external sector, where external balances have been stabilized. As a result, the exchange rate is stabilizing, the forex reserves are increasing because of this surplus, and the previous import restrictions are now being eased.”

The central bank stated that steady global demand and a market-driven exchange rate helped lift exports by 8.6% to US$48.3 billion in FY25, up from US$44.5 billion a year earlier.

Imports, which had dropped by 11.1% in FY24, began recovering in FY25 as the foreign exchange market became more liquid.

Total imports grew by 2.4%, led by consumer goods and raw materials for the garment sector. However, the import of capital machinery remained weak, reflecting a lack of investment appetite, it said.

Rahman pointed out that the private sector had not yet resumed capital machinery imports in any meaningful way. However, he said restrictions were no longer necessary.

“If the macro economy remains stable, we may then see an increase in capital machinery imports by the private sector, and that could put some pressure on overall imports,” he said.

“Now that our reserves are in a good position,” he added, “if import pressure increases, the economy is now in a position to handle it.”

“But we need to stay cautious, because demand might rise in the future.”

Rahman also observed that while the financial account’s surplus is a positive sign, it is largely debt-driven.

“The surplus is coming from the loans we are receiving,” he said. “Against this, we have to provide debt servicing. So, in that sense, the structure is also positive. It’s not just a surplus driven by a debt-creating financial account.”

 

Saturday, 2 August 2025

Upcoming visit of Iranian President to Pakistan

Iran-Pakistan relationship are unique — one defined not simply by geography, but by centuries of shared civilizational experience, religious affinity, cultural kinship and converging strategic interests. The two sovereign nations can gain from an enduring partnership — and even more to contribute to the future of the region.

The upcoming state visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Pakistan reflects this growing momentum. It builds upon a history of high-level engagement that includes the late President Ebrahim Raisi’s landmark visit to Islamabad and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s reciprocal visit to Tehran.

These exchanges, along with sustained diplomatic consultation between senior officials of both the countries, represent a deepening alignment that extends well beyond ceremonial diplomacy. These reflect a conscious, strategic choice to elevate the bilateral relationship into one of regional consequence.

Iran and Pakistan share a 900-kilometre border that is more than a line dividing two states; it is a bridge that has connected peoples and civilizations for centuries. Through this frontier flowed not only trade, but ideas, languages, poetry and faiths that continue to animate our societies today.

From the celebration of Nowruz to shared Sufi traditions, the depth of cultural and spiritual interconnection has forged an enduring sense of familiarity and trust that forms the bedrock of political cooperation.

As two proud Muslim nations, Iran and Pakistan are anchored in the principles of Islam -- justice, compassion and solidarity. These values are not only sources of internal cohesion; they serve as guiding lights for international engagement. The two countries stand together in support of causes such as the Palestinian struggle, to speak out against injustice and to promote peace through cooperation and mutual respect.

Their economic complementarities offer enormous potential. Pakistan’s agricultural dynamism and Iran’s abundant energy resources, coupled with shared interest in connectivity, provide a natural basis for integration.

In addition to sectoral synergies, both nations share a long-term interest in fostering an open, equitable, and interdependent regional economy. By aligning visions, Iran and Pakistan can build a sustainable economic partnership grounded in mutual resilience, technological progress and inclusive growth. Such cooperation can play a transformative role in lifting communities, creating employment and promoting a model of development that benefits the wider region.

At a time transnational threats continue to endanger their security, Iran and Pakistan remain vigilant against terrorist networks operating in border regions. Coordination in counterterrorism is not an option; it is an imperative.

Beyond local threats, both countries face broader strategic concerns arising from aggressive postures in the region. The Israeli regime’s ongoing genocide in Gaza, its occupation of Syria and Lebanon, and its recent unprovoked attacks on Iranian territory underscore the urgency of a collective response to belligerent forces that thrive on instability and domination. Responsible states cannot afford silence. It is time to strengthen coordination, deepen security cooperation and articulate a clear and united stance in international forums.

Iran deeply appreciates the principled position taken by the Government of Pakistan in unequivocally condemning the June 2025 Israeli and American military aggression against Iranian territory. At a time Western powers chose to stand on the wrong side of history, Pakistan stood firmly for international law, regional stability and solidarity with its neighbour.

Equally moving was the heartfelt support expressed by the people of Pakistan, whose spontaneous outpourings of compassion resonated deeply across Iranian society. The Iranian people watched with gratitude as their Pakistani brothers and sisters raised their voices in their support. This display of empathy and unity will never be forgotten. It reaffirmed the profound depth of our bond and the strength of the values we share.

Iran and Pakistan also enjoy a record of close cooperation across multilateral institutions. At the UN, the two have consistently worked together to defend the rights of the Palestinian people and advance sustainable development goals.

Within the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, we advocate for addressing the pressing challenges of the Muslim Ummah. As active members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Economic Cooperation Organization, and the D-8, pursue shared objectives in connectivity, economic integration, and regional peace.

Coordinated diplomacy amplifies their voice on the global stage and helps steer international discourse towards justice, equity, and multilateralism. This collaboration is not limited to crisis management. It also reflects a broader strategic convergence.

Both Iran and Pakistan uphold principles of sovereignty, non-interference, and the peaceful resolution of disputes. Both are committed to a regional order in which Muslim nations shape their own destinies and cooperate toward collective prosperity.

Their partnership holds promise in trilateral and broader regional settings as well. With Afghanistan as their mutual neighbour, the two share an interest in stabilizing the country and ensuring that peace and development replace conflict and extremism. By integrating their economic strategies and leveraging geostrategic positions, Iran and Pakistan can help transform the region into a hub of cooperation rather than competition.

The creation of functional trade and transit corridors, grounded in mutual benefit, brings tangible dividends to our peoples and reaffirms our leadership in crafting a forward-looking regional architecture.

The path ahead calls for unity, clarity of purpose, and a willingness to transform shared aspirations into lasting institutions and practical achievements. Enhancing diplomatic dialogue, expanding economic ties, fostering educational and cultural exchanges and institutionalizing cooperation on security and development will give real depth and resilience to our relationship.

President Pezeshkian’s visit provides an opportunity not only to reaffirm commitments but to reimagine possibilities. In doing so, the two may draw inspiration from Allama Iqbal — Pakistan’s national poet and a profound admirer of Persian thought — who reminded us that the soul of nations is shaped not in fleeting political cycles, but in enduring moral and spiritual visions. His words resonate still: “Nations are born in the hearts of poets; they prosper and die in the hands of politicians.”

Iran-Pakistan friendship is not merely a relic of the past; it is a strategic investment in the future. In unity, they find strength. In cooperation, they find purpose. And in mutual respect, they find the foundation for lasting peace and shared progress.

 

PSX benchmark index up 1.31%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) benchmark index closed at an all-time high of 141,035 points, up 1,828 points or 1.31%WoW on Friday, August 01, 2025.

The positive momentum was driven by conclusion of trade deal between the United States and Pakistan including focus on developing Pakistan’s oil reserves, coupled with officials commenting that government is all set to disburse the PKR1.3 trillion amount, secured from commercial banks, by next week.

This triggered gains in the E&P and OMC sectors. The said development overshadowed the subdued performance of initial days over monetary policy committee (MPC) announcement uncertainty, in which MPC maintained a status quo on policy rate over inflation concerns.

Despite the index’s upward momentum, market participation declined, with average daily traded volumes falling 11.6%WoW to 562 million shares, compared to 635 million shares a week ago.

On the macroeconomic front, US announced reduced tariffs on Pakistani exports at 19%, down from the previously imposed 29%.

Headline inflation for July 25 inched up to 4.1%YoY, as compared to 3.2%YoY a month ago.

Pakistani Rupee appreciated for a second consecutive week by 0.26%WoW, supported by government efforts to curb down on the illicit Fx market.

Foreign exchange reserves by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) declined by US$153 million to US$14.3 billion as of Jul 25, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) FBR collected PKR755 billion against a target of PKR748 billion, 2) Yarn, grey cloth, raw cotton removed from EFS purview, 3) SBP bought US$6.7 billion from the interbank market in 10MFY25, 4) GoP imposed PKR238/ mmbtu levy on gas for captive power plants, and 5) GoP slashed petrol price but hiked high-speed diesel.

Jute, E&P, and OMC were amongst the top performing sectors, while Vanaspati & allied industries, Woollen, and Property were among the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Banks and Foreigners with a net sell of US$5.0 million and US$4.5 million, respectively. Mutual funds absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$10.9 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: BWCL, OGDC, SYS, PPL, and PSO, while laggards included: EPCL, BNWM, JVDC, PSEL, and MEHT.

According to AKD Securities, PSX is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with further developments over circular debt expected to drive the market along with upcoming corporate results.

The benchmark index is anticipated to remain on upward trajectory, with a target of 165,215 points by end December 2025.

Market will be primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MCB, HBL, FCCL, KOHC, INDU, and SYS.

Monday, 28 July 2025

US used about a quarter of its high-end missile interceptors in Israel-Iran war

According to CNN, the United States blew through about a quarter of its supply of high-end THAAD missile interceptors during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in June 2025, thwarting attacks at a rate that vastly outpaces production.

US forces countered Tehran’s barrage of ballistic missiles by firing more than 100 THAADs (short for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) – and possibly as many as 150 – a significant portion of America’s stockpile of the advanced air defense system, the sources said. The US has seven THAAD systems, and used two of them in Israel in the conflict.

Using so many THAAD interceptors in such a short period exposed a gap in the US missile defense network and depleted a costly asset at a moment when American public support for Israeli defense has reached historic lows.

Former US defense officials and missile experts told CNN that the rapid drawdown has also raised concerns about America’s global security posture and ability to regenerate supplies at speed.

Last year, the US produced only 11 new THAAD interceptors and is expected to receive just 12 more this fiscal year.

In response to questions regarding the US’s THAAD stockpile and the expenditure of interceptors during the 12-day conflict, Pentagon Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson said the US military is the strongest it has even been and has everything it needs to conduct any mission anywhere, anytime, all around the world. If you need further proof, look no further than Operation Midnight Hammer and the total obliteration of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

CNN reported that an early intelligence assessment determined the US’ strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities last month did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months.

The US administration dismissed the assessment, and the CIA later said it had evidence Iran’s nuclear program was severely damaged.

Despite the heavy use of THAADs during the 12-day war to help fend off Tehran’s assault last month, dozens of Iranian missiles still struck Israel.

THAAD is a mobile system that can engage and destroy short, medium, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles both inside and outside of the Earth’s atmosphere during their final phase of flight. Each battery is operated by 95 American soldiers, armed with six launchers, and 48 interceptors. The interceptors are manufactured by Lockheed Martin and cost roughly US$12.7 million, according to the 2025 Missile Defense Agency budget.

Two-state solution key to regional stability

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan affirmed the Kingdom’s unwavering belief in the two-state solution as the key to regional stability.

Prince Faisal made his remarks during the opening of the high-level international conference on the peaceful settlement of the Palestinian issue and the two-state solution at the United Nations in New York on Monday.

Co-hosted by Saudi Arabia and France, the conference marks a pivotal step toward advancing concrete international action to implement the two-state solution and end the decades-long conflict.

“The Kingdom believes that the two-state solution is the key to stability in the region,” Prince Faisal said in his opening remarks, adding that the New York conference represents a critical turning point toward its implementation.

He stressed that achieving regional stability begins by granting the Palestinian people their legitimate rights, and welcomed French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent pledge to recognize the State of Palestine.

Prince Faisal also called for an immediate end to the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and announced that Saudi Arabia and France have facilitated the transfer of US$300 million from the World Bank to support Palestinians.

He reiterated that the Arab Peace Initiative remains the foundation for any comprehensive and just resolution, while also emphasizing the importance of supporting the International Coalition for the Two-State Solution.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot echoed the urgency of action, condemning the ongoing targeting of civilians in Gaza. “This war has gone on far too long and must end,” he said.

Barrot urged the international community to make the two-state solution a tangible reality, describing the conference as a “turning point” that has generated “unstoppable momentum toward a political resolution in the Middle East.”

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres thanked Saudi Arabia and France for organizing the conference, describing it as “a unique opportunity to seize the current momentum.”

Guterres emphasized that the conflict can be ended with real political will, and reaffirmed the UN’s commitment to the two-state solution.

He also condemned the illegal annexation of the West Bank, stating that all actions undermining a two-state solution must stop.

Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa described the two-state solution as a historic opportunity for all, and expressed deep gratitude to Saudi Arabia and France for spearheading the conference.

He stressed that the conference sends a clear message to Palestinians that the world stands with them. Mustafa also called for Palestinian unity and urged Hamas to hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority.

He proposed the deployment of international forces — coordinated with the PA — to protect civilians, adding, “We are ready to fulfill all our obligations in Gaza. Peace is the only way forward.”

The New York conference aims to lay the groundwork for an end to Israeli violations in the occupied territories and revive international consensus on the two-state framework as a path to lasting peace and regional security.

 

 

Sunday, 27 July 2025

Iran-Saudi Cordial Ties Upset US and Israel

Growing amicable relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have played a significant role in promoting peace and security in West Asia over the past years. Such cordial ties have come into even sharper focus following Israel’s aggression against Iran last month.

On June 13, Israel launched unprovoked strikes on Iranian territory, targeting high-ranking military commanders, nuclear scientists, and civilians alike. The United States later joined the Israeli war effort, launching attacks on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities—actions widely viewed as violations of the United Nations Charter and the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

In a swift and powerful response, Iranian Armed Forces launched retaliatory strikes on strategic Israeli targets in cities such as Tel Aviv and Haifa, and struck the al-Udeid air base in Qatar—the largest American military installation in West Asia.

By June 24, Iran’s coordinated operations had effectively brought Israeli and American aggression to a halt.

The scale and precision of Iran’s missile power shocked Israel and its Western allies, particularly the United States. 

 “Although Israel has its own sophisticated, multilayered defense, which includes systems like Arrow, David’s Sling and Iron Dome, the country was running low on its own interceptors and was husbanding resources by the time the conflict ended.

Had Iran fired a few more large volleys of missiles, Israel could have exhausted its supply of top-tier Arrow 3 munitions,” The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing American officials familiar with the 12-day war. 

The Journal also revealed that despite deploying two advanced THAAD missile-defense systems to Israel in the wake of the conflict, the US efforts proved insufficient to fully stop Iran’s missile barrages. 

“Operating alongside Israeli systems, THAAD operators burned through munitions at a furious clip, firing more than 150 missiles to shoot down the waves of Iranian ballistic missiles,” the paper reported.

The intensity of the Iranian attacks created such a high demand for interceptors that, according to the Journal, the Pentagon considered diverting THAAD interceptors already purchased by Saudi Arabia to Israel. “Saudi Arabia refused US request to send interceptors to Israel”

Meanwhile, according to Middle East Eye, which cited two American officials, the US asked Saudi Arabia to turn over THAAD interceptors to help Israel, but Riyadh rejected the request.  “Saudi Arabia's refusal to help Israel will sting officials in Washington,” MEE added. 

Saudi Arabia’s “no” to the US demand underscores the deepening ties with Iran. 

On July 8, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Jeddah. In the meeting, the Saudi crown prince condemned any military aggression against Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He welcomed the improving climate of cooperation between the two Islamic powers.

Araghchi, in turn, “thanked Saudi Arabia for its responsible stance in condemning the Israeli aggression against Iran.”

He put emphasis on Iran’s commitment to building stronger ties with its neighbors, including Saudi Arabia based on principles of good neighborliness and mutual interest.

Araghchi also held talks with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, reaffirming the countries’ commitment to closer strategic cooperation.

China’s mediation drives Iran-Saudi unity for regional stability

The renewed diplomatic warmth is rooted in a 2023 agreement brokered by China, which saw Iran and Saudi Arabia formally restore ties after years of estrangement. Since then, China's constructive mediation has played a key role in bringing Tehran and Riyadh closer together.

As the dust settles on the most intense Israel-Iran war in recent memory, the strengthening bond between Iran and Saudi Arabia emerges as a powerful force for stability in West Asia. Their growing diplomatic, political, and economic cooperation is not only reshaping the region's strategic landscape—but also offering a compelling alternative to the cycles of escalation driven by Israeli aggression.

Once geopolitical rivals, Tehran and Riyadh now appear poised to lead a new era—one rooted in sovereignty, mutual respect, and collective security. Their united front sends a clear message: regional peace is best preserved not through foreign intervention or militarism, but through regional unity and shared interests.

In a time of increasing volatility, Iran and Saudi Arabia are demonstrating that Islamic nations can rise above division and become pillars of stability—capable of defending their people, upholding international law, and resisting those who threaten the peace of the region. The path they have chosen may well define the future of West Asia.