Saturday, 3 May 2025

Australia election driven by “Trump Factor”

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's centre-left Labor Party was projected to win over the conservative opposition, Sky News Australia and the Australian Broadcasting Corporation said as early vote counting showed Labor in a strong position.

Broadcasters Sky News Australia and Seven projected that the conservative Liberal and National coalition could not win government, based on early counting, while the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's election analyst Antony Green said Labor had won.

Cost-of-living pressures and concerns about President Donald Trump's volatile policies had been among the top issues on voters’ minds.

Defence Minister Richard Marles told broadcaster Seven that early results were encouraging and Labor regaining majority government "remains a possibility and it is what we are trying to achieve".

Polls closed at 0800 GMT in Australia's most populous Eastern Time zone while voting in Western Australia, home to the city of Perth, will end at 1000 GMT.

Opinion polls had shown Labor ahead, after trailing in the polls as recently as February to Peter Dutton's conservative coalition.

As counting got under way, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the Labor government had been "in all sorts of trouble" at the end of 2024 but got back into the contest because of Albanese's strong campaign performance, policies that addressed concerns about the cost of living, and the Trump Effect.

"The economy became a positive from a negative - the interest rate cut was part of the story," he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

The central bank cut rates in February, on the eve of the election being called, reversing course after 13 interest rate rises that had ratcheted up home mortgage repayments for households.

"The sense of the influence of American politics" had also helped, he added.

Opposition Liberal Party spokesman, Senator James Paterson, defended the conservative campaign, which he also said was negatively affected by "the Trump factor".

 

 

 

 

Trump Budget “A Disgrace”

The budget blueprint that US President Donald Trump unveiled on Friday would give a record US$1.01 trillion to the US military for the coming fiscal year while imposing US$163 billion in total cuts to housing, education, healthcare, climate, and labor programs.

The proposal, released by Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russell Vought, was viewed by Democratic lawmakers and other critics as a clear statement of the White House's intent to gut programs that working class Americans rely on while pursuing another round of tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy and bolstering the Pentagon, a morass of waste and abuse.

"President Trump has made his priorities clear as day," said Sen. Patty Murray, vice chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. "He wants to outright defund programs that help working Americans while he shovels massive tax breaks at billionaires like himself and raises taxes on middle-class Americans with his reckless tariffs."

"This president believes we should shred at least US$163 billion in investments here at home that make all the difference for families and have been essential to America's success—but that we should hand billionaires and the biggest corporations trillions in new tax breaks," Murray added. "That is outrageous—and it should offend every hardworking American who wants their tax dollars to help them live a good life, not pad the pockets of billionaires."

According to the OMB summary, Trump's Fiscal Year 2026 budget would cut over US$4.5 billion from Title I and K-12 education programs, US$4 billion from a program that provides heating assistance to low-income households, US$2.4 billion from safe drinking water funding, US$26 billion from rental assistance programs, US$17 billion from the National Institutes of Health, US$100 million from environmental justice programs, US$1.3 billion from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and US$4.6 billion from the Labor Department.

"President Trump is again betraying the millions of Americans who believed him when he promised to lower costs," Tony Carrk, executive director of Accountable.US, said in a statement. "This time, he's taking aim at anyone who attends a public school, relies on rental assistance to keep a roof over their heads, or accesses healthcare through Medicaid or Medicare."

"Instead of standing up for everyday Americans," said Carrk, "Trump is prioritizing his own wallet and the tax benefits of his wealthy donors—leaving local communities and small towns to bear the brunt of his cuts."

Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the Center for American Progress, noted that the cuts to social programs in the White House's budget proposal "are extreme by any standard, but they're extreme even by Trump's own standards," far exceeding even what he proposed during his first term.

"The cuts in this budget are especially egregious," said Kogan, "when you consider that Trump is also trying to push the largest Medicaid and food assistance cuts in American history through Congress over the next few months."

Meanwhile, the US military would see a $113 billion budget increase compared to current levels if the Republican-controlled Congress were to enact Trump's proposal.

The 13% increase would push the nation's annual military budget above US$1 trillion, which analysts have described as the highest level since the Second World War.

"The Pentagon is bloated, wasteful, and has NEVER passed an audit," the progressive watchdog group Public Citizen wrote in response to Trump's budget. "What a disgrace."

 Courtesy: Common Dreams

Friday, 2 May 2025

Is Saudi Arabia Letting Oil Crash, On Purpose?

Traders often say that OPEC’s primary role is to support oil prices. That’s been the dominant narrative for decades. However, this week told a very different story — one that has raised eyebrows across the global energy market.

Brent crude plunged by 8%, a significant drop by any standard, yet Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader and most influential member, showed almost no visible concern. There was no emergency meeting, no surprise production cut, and no immediate attempt to stabilize the market. It’s a silence that speaks volumes.

At first glance, most headlines pointed to the familiar explanation, questions around OPEC discipline, compliance, and coordination. But when one looks at the numbers and the timing of key decisions, it becomes increasingly clear that something far more strategic may be unfolding behind the scenes.

Crude oil is now trading at levels not seen in four years, and OPEC’s upcoming meeting — one that could potentially shift the trajectory of global oil markets — has been rescheduled for May 03. Notably, the day many major markets will be closed or have limited activity due to global holidays. The timing feels less like coincidence and more like tactical maneuvering.

In this week’s Global Energy Alert, its analysts take a deep dive into the broader implications of Saudi Arabia’s recent moves. It examines what Riyadh’s evolving production strategy truly signals about its underlying priorities.

Is this part of a long-term play to accommodate the anticipated return of Iranian oil exports?

Or perhaps a quiet recalibration in response to Russia’s unpredictable role in OPEC+?

Analysts also explore the lesser-known geopolitical undercurrents — including ongoing US–Saudi discussions around defense cooperation and civilian nuclear development, both of which may carry hidden oil-related stakes.

OPEC’s next decision could mark a turning point. The market may be lulled into complacency, but the pieces are being set for a potentially dramatic reset. If you’re not paying close attention, you might just miss the most important setup of the year.

 

 

 

 

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Traders often say OPEC’s job is to support prices. But this week, Brent crude dropped 8% — and Saudi Arabia barely blinked.

The headlines say it’s about OPEC discipline. But the numbers — and the timing — suggest something bigger is unfolding.

And now, oil is trading at four-year lows just as the group’s meeting shifts to May 3, conveniently when markets are closed.

In this week’s Global Energy Alert, our analysts break down:

What Riyadh’s production strategy signals about its real priorities

How Saudi Arabia could be prepping for Iran’s return — and hedging its bets on Russia

The hidden stakes in U.S.–Saudi defense and nuclear talks tied to oil

OPEC’s next move could reset the market — and if you're not watching closely, you'll miss the setup.

 

PSX benchmark index down 1.17%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile throughout the week, primarily due to concerns over potential escalation in tensions between Pakistan and India. However, market rebounded on last trading day and recovered a significant portion of earlier losses as Pakistan allowed Afghan trucks to enter India via Wagah border. The benchmark index closed the week with a loss of 1,355 points, down 1.17%WoW, ending at 114,114 points on Friday, May 02, 2025.

Positive signals from the United States and Gulf countries urging de-escalation, along with a lower-than-expected inflation reading for April 2025, contributed to a recovery in sentiment during the final trading session.

Corporate results also influenced stock specific performance, particularly in the banking, cement, and technology sectors. Inflation in April 2025 eased further to 0.28%YoY, compared to 0.69%YoY in the previous month. In another positive development, Pakistan’s case for approval of the US$1.0 billion second tranche and US$1.3 billion RSF program from IMF’s executive board has been scheduled for review on May 09. However, on the fiscal side, tax collection during the outgoing month fell short of target by PKR117 billion, taking the 10MFY25 collection shortfall to PKR831 billion. Additionally, trade deficit widened by 36%YoY to US$3.4 billion in April 2025, due to a 14%YoY increase in imports and 9%YoY decline in exports.

Market participation also weakened amid the prevailing volatility, with average daily traded volume falling by 29%WoW to 424 million shares as against compared to 599 million shares a week ago.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) US urging Pakistan and India to work towards responsible resolution, 2) Consumer Confidence Index increasing by 20.9%QoQ in 2QFY25, 3) Petrol, diesel prices declining, and 4) the GoP announcing tax relief to salaried class subject to IMF nod.

Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Sugar & Allied Industries, and Modarabas were amongst the top performing sector, while Transport, Refinery, and Pharmaceuticals were the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Individuals and Foreigner with a net sell of US$14.0 million, while Mutual funds and other organizations absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$10.5 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: AKBL, AICL, PKGP, SYS, and JDWS, while laggards included: APG, GLAXO, CNERGY, KTML, and PPL.

According to AKD Securities, market outlook remains positive, with anticipated rate cut, up to 100bps in the upcoming MPC meeting on Monday, and the IMF Executive board's approval of the second tranche and RSF program.

Moreover, the likelihood of wider scale escalation between Pakistan and India remains lows, the brokerage house maintains an “Overweight” stance on Banks, E&Ps, Fertilizer, Cement, OMCs, Autos, Textile, and Technology sectors.

These sectors are likely to benefit from monetary easing, structural reforms, reciprocal tariffs and a continued decline in commodity prices.

The top picks of the brokerage include, MEBL, MCB, FFC, OGDC, PPL, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.

Ship carrying aid for Gaza attacked

A ship carrying humanitarian aid and activists for Gaza was bombed by drones in international waters off Malta early on Friday, its organizers said, alleging that Israel was to blame, reports Reuters.

The Israeli foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the allegation by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, an international non-governmental group.

The Maltese government said the vessel and its crew were secured in the early hours of the morning after a nearby tug assisted with firefighting operations, but the NGO and Swedish activist Greta Thunberg said the ship was still in danger.

Thunberg told Reuters she was in Malta and had been supposed to board the ship as part of the Freedom Flotilla's planned action in support of Gaza, which is under blockade and bombardment by Israel.

The NGO published video footage, filmed in darkness, showing a fire on one of its ships, the Conscience. The footage showed lights in the sky in front of the ship and the sound of explosions could be heard.

"Israeli ambassadors must be summoned and answer to violations of international law, including the ongoing blockade (of Gaza) and the bombing of our civilian vessel in international waters," it said.

The Maltese government said maritime authorities had received a mayday call shortly after midnight local time from a vessel outside of territorial waters, with 12 crew members and four civilians on board, reporting a fire.

It said a nearby tug headed to the scene and launched firefighting operations and a Maltese patrol vessel was dispatched. After several hours, the vessel and its crew were secure, it said, adding that crew had refused to board the tug.

But the Freedom Flotilla said in a statement on its website that the alleged drone strikes had caused "a substantial breach in the hull".

"The drone strike appears to have deliberately targeted the ship's generator, leaving the crew without power and placing the vessel at great risk of sinking," it said.

A spokeswoman for the group, Caoimhe Butterly, said the attack took place as the ship was preparing for activists to board from another vessel. A transfer at sea had been planned rather than the ship going to harbour, for bureaucratic reasons, she said.

Thunberg said that as far as she knew, the vessel was still at the location where it had been attacked and still in imminent danger.

"This attack caused an explosion and major damage to the vessel, which made it impossible to continue the mission," she said in a Zoom interview.

"I was part of the group who was supposed to board that boat today to continue the voyage towards Gaza, which is one of many attempts to open up a humanitarian corridor and to do our part to keep trying to break Israel's illegal siege on Gaza," she said.

Thunberg and the NGO said there were 30 people on board, not 16 as the Maltese government said.

The coalition said it had been organising a non-violent action under a media blackout in order to avoid any potential sabotage.

The Gaza war started after Hamas-led fighters killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages to Gaza in the October 7, 2023 attacks, according to Israeli tallies. Since then, Israel's offensive on the enclave killed more than 52,000, according to Palestinian health officials.

Since March 02, Israel has completely cut off all supplies to the 2.3 million residents of the enclave, and food stockpiled during a ceasefire at the start of the year has all but run out.

Another coalition ship on a similar mission to Gaza in 2010 was stopped and boarded by Israeli troops, and nine activists died. Other ships have similarly been stopped and boarded, without loss of life.

Hamas issued a statement about the incident off Malta, accusing Israel of "piracy" and "state terrorism".

 

 

Thursday, 1 May 2025

Yemen issues warning to Britain

Lately, Britain bombarded Yemen, marking the first joint attack with the United States under the Trump administration. In response, the government in Sanaa warned, “British enemy must reckon with the consequences of its entanglement,” condemning the it’s involvement in the US-led campaign against Yemen.

According to an official statement from Sanaa, the attack is part of the ongoing efforts by the American and British enemies to support the Israeli enemy.

The aim, it underlined, is to suppress Yemen’s support for Palestine and allow the Zionist regime to intensify its massacres in Gaza.

The statement declared, “Sanaa would confront the evil trio, the US, Britain, and the Zionist regime, along with their allies, with all its might,” vowing that such attacks would not shake Yemen’s commitment to its core causes, particularly the Palestinians in Gaza.

The British military said it had joined the US Air Force in targeting what it claimed was “a military facility used by the Yemenis to manufacture drones used in attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.”

The recent airstrikes also come against the backdrop of Yemeni missiles targeting the US aircraft carrier Harry Truman. The carrier was forced to make a sharp evasive maneuver, causing an F-18 fighter jet to slip off the deck and sink into the Red Sea.

Yemeni forces ended a blockade on Israeli and Israeli-affiliated vessels transiting the Red Sea. They also stopped hypersonic ballistic missile attacks on “vital Israeli targets” as soon as a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza came into effect. 

Meanwhile, critics in the US have raised concerns about the high cost of the strikes on Yemen and questioned their effectiveness in weakening the country’s military capabilities.

 

Israeli reservists speak out against Gaza war

In recent weeks, thousands of Israeli reservists – from all branches of the military – have signed letters demanding that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government stop the fighting and concentrate instead on reaching a deal to bring back the remaining 59 hostages being held by Hamas, reports BBC.

Eighteen months ago, few Israelis doubted the war's logic, to defeat Hamas and return the hostages.

For many, the January ceasefire and subsequent return of more than 30 hostages raised hopes that the war might soon end. But after Israel broke the ceasefire and returned to war in mid-March, those hopes were dashed.

"We came to the conclusion that Israel is going to a very bad place," Danny Yatom, a former head of the spy agency Mossad said.

"We understand that what mainly bothers Netanyahu is his own interests. And in the list of priorities, his interests and the interests of having the government stable are the first ones, and not the hostages."

Many of those signing recent letters are, like Yatom, long time critics of the prime minister. Some were involved in the antigovernmental protests that preceded the outbreak of war on 07 October 2023 following Hamas's attack on Israel. Yatom said that's not why he decided to speak out.

"I signed my name and I am participating in the demonstrations not because of any political reason, but because of a national reason," he said. "I am highly concerned that my country is going to lose its way."

The first open letter to be published, in early April, was signed by 1,000 air force reservists and retirees.

"The continuation of the war does not contribute to any of its declared goals," they wrote, "and will lead to the death of the hostages".

The signatories urged Israelis to follow their lead before time ran out on the estimated 24 hostages still thought to be alive in Gaza.

"Every day that passes is further risking their lives. Every moment of hesitation is a crying shame."

In the weeks since, similar letters have appeared from almost every branch of the military, including elite fighting and intelligence units, along with a number of decorated commanders.

After 07 October, hundreds of thousands of Israeli reservists answered the call, eager to serve. But now, more and more are refusing, with reports suggesting that reserve attendance has dropped to as little as 50-60%.

For a military that depends heavily on reservists to fight its wars, it's a looming crisis on a scale not seen since Israel's first Lebanon war in 1982.

The government's determination to keep fighting Hamas, while hostages risk death in the tunnels of Gaza was misplaced.

"We are very strong and we can beat Hamas, but it's not about beating Hamas," he said. "It's about losing our country."

But the longer the war goes on, critics say, the harder it is for Israel to claim, as government officials often do, that its military is the most moral army in the world.

In a recent column in the left of center newspaper Haaretz, the retired general Amiram Levin said it was time for soldiers – starting with senior commanders - to think about disobeying orders.

"The risk of being dragged into war crimes and suffering a fatal blow to the Israel Defense Forces and our social ethos," he wrote, "make it impossible to stand idly by".

Some of Israel's critics, including those who have brought cases before the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice, argue that such lines have already been crossed.

Netanyahu has lashed out at the protesters, dismissing their concerns as "propaganda lies", spread by "a small handful of fringe elements – loud, anarchist and disconnected pensioners, most of whom haven't served in years".

But polls suggest the protest letters reflect a growing public conviction: that the release of the remaining hostages should come before everything.

In Tel Aviv, where noisy anti-war demonstrations have been held for well over a year, images of the hostages are held aloft, while other protestors sit on the road, cradling pictures of Palestinian children killed during the war.

Amid the row generated by the letters, such emotive displays appear to have rattled the authorities.

On 20 April, the police briefly told protesters that "pictures of children or babies from Gaza" would not be permitted, along with posters displaying the words "genocide" or "ethnic cleansing".

Following expressions of outrage from the organizers, the police quickly backed down.

Meanwhile, the prime minister continues to speak of his determination to defeat Hamas.

Military pressure, Netanyahu continues to insist, is the only way to bring the hostages home.