Philippines: US proxy in South China Sea region

Nothing better captures the Philippines' geostrategic indispensability than the unfolding drama over the deployment of the US Typhon missile system to the Southeast Asian nation.

The state-of-the-art midrange capability (MRC) weapons system, which has a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, is crucial to deterring any future Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Beijing has repeatedly warned Manila against hosting such platforms, thus raising the risk of a "Cuban missile crisis" style showdown in the future.

Richard Heydarian says, it is a geopolitical risk well worth taking if it allows the Southeast Asian nation to accelerate its own military modernization and, more broadly, its emergence as an increasingly capable and pivotal player in the Indo-Pacific.

Manila is not shying away from a potential diplomatic crisis over hosting the missile system. If anything, top Philippine officials are also exploring not just deployment but the acquisition of Typhons and other high-end American weapons system.

Trump also the warmonger

Biden administration leading the charge for Israel’s horrific genocide – now expanding into a broader, regional war – and fueling the war in Ukraine with no end in sight, Republicans are now working overtime to rebrand Donald Trump as a dove.

Let the world not forget:

 Trump nearly kicked off a full scale war with Iran by assassinating General Soleimani.

Trump with Democratic support, co-signed a coup in Bolivia and attempted a coup in Venezuela.

Donald Trump set the stage for Israel’s bloodbath in Gaza and the West Bank by formally recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Donald Trump is many things, a predator, a crude bigot and a con man.

While Democrats railed against Trump’s domestic agenda (most of the time) throughout his term, in virtually every instance the “Vote Blue No Matter Who” crowd threw their full weight behind Trump’s constant foreign provocations.

Trump’s warmongering ways for as long as he’s been a figure on the national stage – particularly during his term in the White House.

Trump and his allies are trying to rewrite history and make us forget his warmongering ways. But we know the truth.

The world must not forget that Trump and the Republicans are funded by the same weapons manufacturers and fossil fuel extractors as Democrats operating at every level of government.

They may dislike his uncouth rhetoric. They may finger-wag his racism. They may object to his weaponization of the courts and federal agencies (though they won’t hesitate to use the same in their own favor).

In co-signing genocide, provoking endless wars, and serving the forces of the American empire, Democrats and Donald Trump fit together hand in glove.

Syria intercept Israeli missile attack

Syrian air defense systems successfully intercepted an Israeli missile attack early Saturday, according to the state-run Sana news agency.

The strikes targeted military sites in the southern and central regions of Syria, with the assault commencing around 2300 GMT.

Missiles were reportedly launched from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and parts of Lebanon. Military sources indicated that several missiles were shot down, although efforts are ongoing to assess the full impact of the attack. There has been no immediate information regarding casualties or damage.

In a related development, Israel announced early Saturday that its military had conducted "precise strikes" against military targets in Iran.

Explosions were heard in Tehran as Israeli army spokesman Rear Adm. Danial Hagari confirmed that the Israel Defense Forces were targeting sites in Tehran, Meshed, and a power station in Karaj. 

Condemnation of Israeli attack on Iran

It may not be wrong to say that Israel having killed thousands in Gaza and Lebanon is now attacking Iran directly with regular intervals. One can say with complete confidence that Israel is doing all this under the patronage of United States. It is worth noting that some of the Muslim countries have condemned Saturday’s attack on Iran, with the request to apply restraint.   

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran as a violation of the country’s sovereignty and a violation of international laws and norms.

“The Kingdom affirms its firm position in its rejection of the continued escalation in the region and the expansion of the conflict that threatens the security and stability of the countries and peoples of the region,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Riyadh also urged all parties to “exercise the utmost restraint and reduce escalation”, warning of the ramifications of continuing military conflicts in the region.

Malaysia

Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry also released a statement in response to Israel’s overnight attacks, labelling the strikes a “clear violation of international law” that “seriously undermine regional security”.

“Malaysia calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and an end to the cycle of violence,” the statement said.

The Foreign Ministry added that Israel’s continued attacks on countries in the Middle East is bringing the region closer to the brink of a wider war.

Iraq

Iraqi Shia cleric and head of National Wisdom Movement, Ammar Hakim, has strongly condemned recent Israeli attacks on Iranian cities, expressing solidarity with the Iranian people, their leadership, and government.

Hakim urged the international community to unite in countering the spread of Israeli influence, which he argued violates international charters and norms. He warned that Israel’s actions threaten to escalate conflicts, extending violence beyond Palestine and Lebanon into Syria, Iran, and other nations.

Hakim called on the United Nations and the Security Council to take decisive action to prevent Israel’s behavior from further destabilizing the region.

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Pakistan

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif stated on Saturday that Pakistan firmly condemns Israel's recent aggression against Iran and stands with Iran and its neighbors in their pursuit of peace.

He also called on all parties involved to exercise restraint to prevent further escalation. On his social media platform X, the prime minister posted, “Deeply concerned by the recent act of Israeli aggression against Iran. Such actions threaten regional peace and stability and violate sovereignty and international law.”

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Kuwait

Kuwait’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a strong condemnation of Israel’s recent military action against Iran, describing it as part of a broader policy aimed at destabilizing the region through violations of national sovereignty.

In a statement released Saturday, the ministry highlighted that Israel’s aggression against Iran exemplifies a disruptive approach that endangers the security of the entire region and disregards international laws and norms.

The ministry called on the international community and the UN Security Council to take responsibility in curbing these actions, which threaten the region’s future and the welfare of its people. It emphasized the importance of decisive steps to uphold regional security and stability, grounded in international laws and treaties.

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United Arab Emirates 

The UAE has strongly condemned Israel’s military strikes on Iran, and expressed its deep concern over the continued escalation and its repercussions on security and stability in the region.
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Oman

Oman’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned Israel’s recent attack on Iranian territory, calling it a blatant violation of Iran’s sovereignty and international law.

The ministry stated that Israel’s latest act of aggression attempted to target military sites in Tehran province early Saturday, but the assault reportedly failed to achieve its objectives. This incident, it noted, is part of a broader pattern of Israeli hostilities in the region.

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PSX benchmark index inches closer to 90,000

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed bullish sentiments throughout the week ended on October 25, 2024. The benchmark KSE-100 index recorded its highest-ever closing, just shy of the 90,000 mark ‑ closing at 89,994 points, up by 5.6%WoW.

This marked the highest weekly return in 27 weeks and 47th highest weekly return since the index's inception.

More importantly, KSE30 index also reached all-time high at 28,395 points.

The week started with positive momentum buoyed by settlement of political noise following the passage of stalled 26th Constitutional Amendment.

The optimism consolidated with swing of corporate result announcements and favorable economic developments.

According to AKD Securities, the rally was broad-based, with 80 out of 100 companies delivering positive returns.

Leading sectors were Fertilizer, Cement, and Banks, primarily due to strong annual growth in results. On the macro front, current account posted a surplus for the second consecutive month at US$115 million for September 2024.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$18 million to US$11.0 billion as of October 18, 2024.

Market participation also improved significantly, with average daily traded volume rising by 23%WoW to 532 million shares from 432 million shares a week ago.

The PKR remained stable against the greenback, closing the week at 277.6 to a US$.

Other major news flows during the week included: IT exports surged 42%YoY in September 2024, 2) Banking sector deposits were up by 19%YoY to PKR31.3 trillion at end September 2024, 3) Sales tax on tractors hiked to 14% from 10%, 4) Loans to private sector were up 4.9% to PKR8.4 trillion at end September 2024, and 5) Nepra approves KE's generation tariff with key adjustments.

Cement, Refinery, and Mutual Funds were amongst the top performers, while Modarabas, Textile composites, and Vanaspati & allied industries were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$16.4 million. Mutual Funds and other organizations absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$20.4 million.

Top performing scripts of the week were: KOHC,CHCC, AICL, KEL, and ATRL, while laggards included: ILP, PIBTL, LOTCHEM, IBFL, and NESTLE.

Market is expected to remain positive, with primary focus on the upcoming MPC meeting, where an anticipated rate cut could further bolster market momentum.

Despite the recent rally, valuations remain attractive, with the market trading at a P/E of 4.0x and offering a dividend yield of 11.2%.

AKD Securities recommends focusing on sectors that stand to benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms, particularly high-dividend-yield stocks that are likely to re-rate as yields converge with fixed-income returns.

Top picks include, OGDC, PPL, MCB, UBL, MEBL, FFC, PSO, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL and INDU.

 

Israel strikes military targets in Iran

Israel has launched direct airstrikes against Iran in a high-stakes retaliatory attack that brings the Middle East closer to a regional war.

The Israeli military said it had completed its air attack on Saturday morning, hitting missile manufacturing sites and aerial defences in several areas inside Iran. Israel’s public broadcaster said three waves of strikes had been completed.

Iranian air defences said Israel attacked military targets in the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam and that “limited damage” was caused to some locations.

A senior US official described the strikes as “extensive”, “precise” and against military targets across Iran. The US did not participate in the strikes, the official said, but worked with the Israeli government to encourage a low-risk attack with no civilian harm.

“The effect was a proportionate self-defence response. The effect is to deter future attacks and to degrade Iran’s abilities to launch future attacks.”

The official stressed that the US considered the operation to be an “end to the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran”.

“This should be the end of the direct military exchange between Israel and Iran – we had a direct exchange in April and that was closed off and now we’ve had this direct exchange again.”

At least seven explosions were reported over the capital, Tehran, and nearby Karaj as well as the eastern city of Mashhad just after 2.30am local time on Saturday, as Israeli jets struck military targets in the country.

Iranian media initially appeared to downplay the airstrikes, noting that Tehran’s airport was operating normally. State TV reported several strong explosions heard around the capital, while the state news agency, IRNA, said there had been no casualties. There was no immediate official comment about the source of explosions, which Iranian news outlets reported were under investigation. Air defence systems were activated around the country.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took the rare step of acknowledging the attack on Iran, in a confirmation that a decades-old shadow war between the enemy states has now firmly moved into the open.

Before Israel launched the airstrikes on Saturday, Iran had repeatedly warned there were “no red lines” for Iran on the issue of defending itself. Last week, the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, also indirectly threatened US forces against operating in Israel after Washington dispatched a Thaad advanced missile defence system battery and 100 troops to aid its ally amid the tensions.

The White House was notified shortly before Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran, a spokesperson said. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, had said on Wednesday that Israel’s retaliation should not lead to greater escalation.

OGDC earnings up 8%QoQ

Oil & Gas Development Company (OGDC) has posted profit after tax of PKR41.0 billion (EPS: PKR9.54), up 8%QoQ for the first quarter, despite lower oil prices (Brent down 8%QoQ).

According to Inter-market Securities, the increase in profitability is attributable to absence of one-off provisions of PKR23 billion booked on TFCs coupled with lower operating cost. It also announced an interim dividend of PKR3.0/ share.

Key highlights from 1QFY25 result:    

Net revenues were down 8%QoQ to PKR106 billion, mainly due to lower oil prices coupled with estimated 4% decline in gas production.

Operating expenses reduced by 27%QoQ to PKR27 billion likely due to lower work-over expensed during the quarter.

Other income surged to PKR26 billion as compared to a loss of PKR3 billion, due to the absence of one-off provisions booked against clearance of TFC in the earlier quarter.

OGDC’s effective tax rate for the quarter rose to 51% during the quarter under review. 

Despite gas curtailment and lower oil prices, OGDC posted decent earnings. Earnings are expected to slightly improve on account of improving gas production.

On production front, the company in a JV with MARI is developing a high-potential asset Shewa in Waziristan block, which has potential reserves of 1.4tcf.

Moreover, the company’s own field Bettani (Wali) is expected to produce 3,000bpd of oil and 35mmcfd of gas, following the successful drilling of Bettani-2 and Bettani Deep-1.