Israel accused for pager explosions

Several news outlets confirmed late Tuesday what was widely suspected, Israel's military and intelligence services were behind the explosions of pagers recently purchased by the Lebanese political party and militant group Hezbollah.

The explosions, reportedly set off earlier Tuesday by a message that appeared as if it was from Hezbollah's leadership, killed at least 11 people—including an 8-year-old girl—and wounded thousands more.

Citing both an unnamed former Israeli official with knowledge of the operation and an anonymous U.S. official, Axios reported that Israeli intelligence services planned to use the booby-trapped pagers it managed to 'plant' in Hezbollah's ranks as a surprise opening blow in an all-out war to try to cripple Hezbollah."

"But in recent days, Israeli leaders became concerned that Hezbollah might discover the pagers," the outlet continued. "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his top ministers, and the heads of the Israel Defense Forces and the intelligence agencies decided to use the system now rather than take the risk of it being detected by Hezbollah”, a US official said.

A spokesperson for the US State Department publicly denied that the Biden administration was involved in the attack or aware of the operation in advance.

Heidi Matthews, an associate professor at the Osgoode Hall Law School of York University, wrote Tuesday that each explosion constitutes an indiscriminate attack, pointing to video footage of a pager detonating in a crowded market.

"Under these circumstances," Matthews added, "this is an act of terror."

The New York Times reported Tuesday that Hezbollah ordered thousands of pagers from the Taiwanese manufacturer Gold Apollo, but the company denied making the devices.

According to the Times, which cited unnamed officials, Israeli operatives tampered with the devices they reached Lebanon, planting in them as little as one to two ounces of explosive material and a switch that could be triggered remotely to detonate the explosives.

Heightening fears of a broader conflict, Hezbollah pledged Tuesday to retaliate against Israel over the attack, which reportedly injured Iran's ambassador to Lebanon as well as Hezbollah fighters and medics.

The Guardian's Andrew Roth noted Tuesday that just a day before the coordinated sabotage, Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to US President Joe Biden, was in Israel urging Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials against an escalation in Lebanon.

Netanyahu has repeatedly sabotaged cease-fire negotiations with hardline demands in recent weeks as the Israeli military—heavily armed by the US—continues to assail the Gaza Strip.

"While US officials have said that the basis for peace along Israel's northern boundary with Lebanon would come through a cease-fire in Gaza, that agreement has proven elusive and appears no closer to fruition," Roth wrote Tuesday.

 "The White House had hoped that a period of quiet around Israel would allow for cease-fire negotiators to achieve a breakthrough, as intermediaries shuttle between Hamas and Israel to thread the needle of both sides' complex demands regarding a hostage exchange and territorial claims."

"That period of quiet has now been shattered with a breathtaking act of subterfuge and Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate," Roth added.

 

Hezbollah members injured in mysterious explosions

Hundreds of members of Lebanon's Hezbollah were injured due to small explosions that struck their communication devices in various regions across the country, which a party official described as "the largest security breach to date."

Iranian news agency Mehr reported that the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was injured in an explosion involving a wireless communication device.

Security sources told Reuters that over 1,000 injuries have been reported across Lebanon due to the device explosions.

Activists shared dozens of images and videos showing injured young men in the streets amid widespread panic among residents caused by the mysterious blasts targeting mobile communication devices used by Hezbollah members.

Reports of injuries came from southern Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon, with conflicting information regarding the number of casualties, which are believed to be in the hundreds.

Lebanese security sources expressed suspicion that the incident resulted from an Israeli infiltration that caused the devices' batteries to explode.

A Reuters journalist witnessed ten Hezbollah members bleeding from their injuries in southern Beirut.

A Lebanese security source stated that Israel accessed Hezbollah's communication system and caused the explosions, adding that calls were made for party members to discard their devices. 

China Prompts Oil Price Crash

The marked shift in oil sentiment recently has been to a great deal prompted by a widespread concern of Chinese demand peaking this or next year as LNG displaces diesel in long-haul trucking, EV sales overtaking conventional cars since July and rail expansion eating into jet fuel recovery.

Chinese refinery runs have been declining for five straight months, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting throughput rates at 13.91 million b/d in August amidst a widespread decline in Shandong teapot runs, as low as 55% last month. 

Meanwhile, Asian refiners’ margins slumped to the lowest seasonal levels since 2020 as high inventories of diesel and gasoline become an increasingly worrying factor as peak summer demand tapers off.

China’s clampdown on tax evasion is aggravating the pressure on refiners after a Shandong court ruled two refiners run by state-owned firm Sinochem, the Huaxing and Zhenghe plants totalling 220,000 b/d in capacity, fully bankrupt. 

What caused Baltimore Bridge disaster?

Nearly six months after the late-March Dali Bridge allision disaster outside the Port of Baltimore a just released report from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Office of Marine Safety presents some newly found insights, reported by Seatrade Maritime News.

Deep within the NTSB report, it is revealed that a loose cable connection discovered during inspections, conducted during April, might have been the cause of power blackouts aboard Dali that led to the disaster which followed in the early morning hours of March 26.

Its latest brief provides insights from ongoing work by a newly formed “Engineering Group”, which is composed of owners Grace Ocean Private Limited, ship managers Synergy Marine Group, shipbuilder HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), classification society Nippon Kaiji Kyokai (Class NK), flag-state Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore, and India, which is described as a “substantially interested State”.

The 41-page report exhaustively details the weeks of tests on the ship’s electrical system that were conducted in the weeks post-allision mainly by engineers from HHI, under close observation from NTSB personnel. The wording extracted from the NTSB report here, describing activity deep within the vessel electrical switchboard array, is highly technical, with emphasis added by Seatrade Maritime News:

HHI engineers found that one of the cable cores that connects the DB1X-1 relay of the GPT1 panel to the control line was loose. The DB1X-1 relay is for bus blackout detection. Two ends of the DB1X-1 relay are nodes 381 and 382. Node 381 is connected to node 304 of the control line and node 382 is connected to node 305 of the control line…HHI engineers found that the cable was loosely connected at node 381. That condition can create an open circuit and interrupt the 110VDC power to the HR1 UVT Coil, which would trigger an under voltage release trip of HR1. This would result in a 440V blackout without leaving any records in the HiMAP-T sensor….

HHI engineers advised that if the cable is loosely connected, the UVT control voltage might not maintain a steady value of 110VDC. If this condition is not met, the HR1 will open, which would lead to a Low Voltage (440V) Switchboard blackout. If the transformers are set to an automatic switch mode, LR2/HR2 is automatically closed and TR2 is connected when HR1/LR1 is open.

These findings will no doubt be considered as the NTSB works towards a final report on the Dali allision.

In an April interview with Seatrade Maritime News, Holland & Knight lawyer Benjamin Allen, a veteran of the NTSB and now a Partner in H & K’s Washington, DC office focusing on transportation accident litigation, had suggested that a one-year timeline might be a reasonable expectation for the NTSB to issue its final report on the Dali incident.

 

 

Iran wants US to abandon its hostility

Iran could hold direct talks with the United States if Washington demonstrates in practice that it is not hostile to the Islamic Republic, said President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday.

Pezeshkian was responding to a question at a news conference in Tehran on whether Tehran would be open to direct talks with the US to revive a 2015 nuclear deal.

Former US president Donald Trump reneged on that deal in 2018, arguing it was too generous to Tehran, and restored harsh US sanctions on Iran, prompting Tehran to gradually violate the agreement's nuclear limits.

"We are not hostile towards the US, they should end their hostility towards us by showing their goodwill in practice," said Pezeshkian, adding, "We are brothers with the Americans as well."

After taking office in January 2021, US President Joe Biden tried to negotiate a revival of the nuclear pact under which Iran had restricted its nuclear program in return for relief from US, European Union and UN sanctions.

However, Tehran refused to directly negotiate with Washington and worked mainly through European or Arab intermediaries.

 

Kashmiris to vote in historic elections

On a bright September afternoon, a caravan of colorful cars, festooned with flags, arrives at a village in Indian-administered Kashmir for an election rally. Iltija Mufti, a politician from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), slowly rises from the sunroof of one of the cars, reports Saudi Gazette.

“Yeli ye Mufti (When Mufti will be in power)," she shouts at a crowd that has gathered to hear the third-generation leader of one of the most influential political dynasties of the region.

“Teli Tch’le Sakhti (Then the repression will end)," they respond in unison.

From a distance, army personnel in bulletproof jackets, armed with automatic rifles, stand watch, tracking every movement.

For the first time in a decade, elections are being held in 47 assembly seats of Kashmir, long marked by violence and unrest. The region, claimed by both India and Pakistan, has been the cause of three wars between the nuclear-armed neighbors. Since the 1990s, an armed insurgency against Indian rule has claimed thousands of lives, including civilians and security forces.

The three-phase polls will also extend to the 43 seats in the neighboring Hindu-majority Jammu region.

The election is the first since 2019, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government revoked Jammu and Kashmir's autonomy, stripped its statehood, and split it into two federally administered territories. Since then, the region has been governed by a federal administrator.

In the fray are 13 main parties vying for a majority in the 90-seat assembly.

The major players are the two main regional parties — the PDP led by Mehbooba Mufti and the National Conference (NC) which is headed by Omar Abdullah. Both Mufti and Abdullah are former chief ministers of the region.

The NC has formed an alliance with India's main opposition party Congress.

Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is also contesting but not many are betting on the party, which has a stronghold in Jammu but a weak political base in the valley.

In the last elections in 2014, the BJP had formed a government in alliance with PDP after sweeping Jammu. The alliance fell apart in 2018 after years of disagreements.

Also in the picture, this time, is Engineer Rashid — a politician who has spent five years in jail accused of a terror case and was released on bail this week. Rashid came to the limelight earlier this year when he pulled off a stunning victory in the general election over Abdullah. He fought the election from jail, with his sons leading an emotional campaign on the ground.

Elections in Kashmir have long been contentious, with residents and separatist leaders often boycotting them, viewing the process as Delhi's attempt to legitimize its control.

Since 1947, Kashmir has held 12 assembly elections, but voter turnout has often been low and marked by violence. Militants have attacked polling stations, and security forces have been accused of forcing voters to come out and vote. Since the 1990s, hundreds of political workers have been kidnapped or killed by militant groups.

But for the first time in decades, even separatist leaders are contesting in several seats.

The most keenly watched of these is the outlawed Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) party, which has joined hands with Rashid's Awami Ittehad Party (AIP).

Residents will vote to elect a local assembly, led by a chief minister and council of ministers. Though the assembly will have limited powers under Delhi's rule, it has sparked hopes for a political change in the valley.

Almost all opposition parties have pledged to restore statehood and the region's special status. The BJP has ruled out restoring autonomy but has promised to reinstate statehood to Jammu and Kashmir "at an appropriate time after the elections".

Most residents appeared to be reconciled to the loss of their region's autonomy.

“I don’t think Article 370 will come back unless any miracle happens,” said Suheel Mir, a research scholar, adding that parties were making promises about restoring autonomy in a “politically charged” atmosphere to get votes.

Several young men and women said they were more concerned about issues like political instability, corruption and most of all, unemployment - also a major concern in Jammu.

“We want to cast our vote to resolve our day-to-day issues. It has nothing to do with the Kashmir dispute,” said a man who did not wish to be named.

But others said they didn't want to give the impression that they had accepted the events of 2019 and would participate in the election solely to vote against the BJP.

"We want to send a message to the government that the revocation is unacceptable to us no matter what," said 38-year-old Zameer Ahmad.

Five years ago when Modi's government abrogated Article 370, the 70-year-old constitutional provision that gave the region its autonomy, the government said it was necessary to restore normalcy in India’s only Muslim-majority region.

The move triggered a severe security clampdown, mass detentions, curfews and a months-long internet blackout, stripping residents of rights to jobs and land.

Since then, Modi and his ministers have extensively talked about a new era of peace and development in Kashmir, announcing projects worth hundreds of millions of dollars that they say are part of a plan to integrate the region's economy with the rest of India. (Until Jammu and Kashmir's special status was removed, outsiders could not buy land to do business there).

But locals say they have yet to see the benefits of such projects and continue to struggle with violence and high levels of unemployment.

Thousands of Indian army troops continue to be perpetually deployed there, with powers that have led to decades of allegations of human rights violations.

"There is an absence of democracy and freedoms in Kashmir and many political activists remain in jail," said political scientist Noor Ahmad Baba.

"The election allows people to give their verdict for or against these changes."

The change in mood is visible everywhere.

Across Jammu and Kashmir, streets are adorned with posters, party flags, and billboards and men at local bakeries freely discuss election outcomes over chai.

"There has been a complete overhaul of traditional political narratives," said Tooba Punjabi, a researcher.

"Earlier, public boycotts defined elections. But now, it's a means of putting the right party in place to undo the damage."

The shift in political attitudes was also evident earlier this year, when Kashmir registered a historic 58.46% voter turnout in the parliamentary election.

Many residents are now pinning their hopes on regional parties to raise their demands.

"These parties have acted as a shield between Delhi and Kashmir," said businessman Tahir Hussain," adding that "it didn't matter who will form the government as long as it's a local one".

Analysts say the BJP's performance could also receive a significant blow in Jammu this time, where internal discord and infighting has derailed its ambitions.

There's also growing anger among the residents who are unhappy with the party's policies.

Until now, the BJP's push for development has resonated with people in Jammu who hope it would bring in more economic opportunities for them.

But many say they are yet to see any signs of change. “In fact, now that Article 370 has been scrapped, people from other states are coming to Jammu. Our rights on jobs and land are being taken away from us," said Gulchain Singh Charak, a local politician.

Sunil Sethi, BJP's chief spokesperson in the region, rejected the allegations.

“We have done massive infrastructure developments, built roads and brought foreign investors here,” he said.

No war between China and Malaysia

The mere mention of the South China Sea these days conjures up an image of confrontation between China and rival claimants, military or otherwise. So many heads were turned following a leak of a diplomatic note from China to the Malaysian Embassy in Beijing calling on Kuala Lumpur to stop all drilling in the South China Sea. But we should not deduce that the Sino-Malaysian relationship is about to go south, argues Phar Kim Beng.

This is for several reasons, such as the two sides having developed the necessary channels of communication to handle friction, and that Malaysia has been the coordinator of the China-ASEAN relationship since last August.

This is illustrated by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim taking to using the word "discussion" to replace "negotiation" with China. While this does not hint at any short or long term solutions, neither is it a sign of China and Malaysia engaging in a war of words, let alone their militaries coming to blows.