Tuesday, 25 June 2024

Israel can destroy Hezbollah’s military in days

The IDF can destroy Hezbollah’s military capabilities in a matter of days, National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz said on Tuesday.

Speaking at the 21st Herzliya Conference at Reichman University, Gantz said a major challenge for Israel is to return the southern and northern residents back to their homes, even at the price of escalation.

He said he heard the reports about the Hezbollah threat to bring down Israel’s electrical grid, and responded, “We can bring Lebanon completely into the dark, and take apart Hezbollah’s power in days.”

The former defense minister and IDF chief of staff said the price to “Israel will be heavy. We need to back up our institutions. We need to be ready for major incidents of harm to the public. We should try to avoid it, but if we need to do it, we cannot be deterred from it.

“We cannot let Hezbollah keep threats close to the northern border,” he added, “We need to get the northern residents back by September 01.”

Another challenge for Israel that Gantz discussed was building a regional and global alliance against Iran.

“We still have the opportunity of normalization with the Saudis and other states, to build what we started to build, the Middle East air defense, to form a stranglehold on the Iranian axis,” he said.

He emphasized that Israel must work hard with the US to build up Israel’s defenses and to be ready for ‘the Judgment Day’ of stopping Iranian nuclear weapons.

A third challenge he noted was the long-term conflict with Hamas, including the need for a political plan to replace the terror group’s management of Gaza.

He pushed hard for a hostage deal, even at the cost of ending the war for now.

Gantz noted that the US only killed Osama Bin Laden of al-Qaeda in 2011, 10 years after 9/11, meaning that even a long ceasefire would in no way mean that Israel would allow Gaza Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar to live out his days without killing him.

Rather, he said, it was clear that Hamas would continue to promote terror and their actions would give Israel the later excuse to eliminate him and other top Hamas leaders.

In any event, he said it would take years to replace Hamas at a governance level, but credited the IDF with destroying Hamas’s existing military capacities.

Earlier at the conference, Reichman University President Boaz Ganor said, “Hamas is a tactical threat, Hezbollah is a strategic threat, and Iran is an existential threat.”

He warned that Israel had fallen into Iran’s trap, spending nine months fighting a player of minimal importance and wasting large amounts of goodwill globally, while Tehran has mostly gotten to sit back and watch.

Further, he said Iran is playing long-term chess, with Israel playing short-term poker. Ganor even argued that Iran knew more than Israeli intelligence has said, meaning that it really did plan the entire October 07 invasion.

In addition, he argued that Iran and Hezbollah’s denials of knowing Hamas’s plans were also pre-coordinated.

He did not specifically say that Tehran knew the date of the invasion, but Ganor has argued that Hamas was not sophisticated enough to pull off the coordinated massive rocket attack land invasion simultaneously on its own, nor was it capable of the extreme information security it undertook to avoid the IDF detecting the moment of the invasion.




Houthis attack Transworld Navigator, again

Footage has emerged purporting to show a maritime drone hitting the Transworld Navigator, a 178,000 dwt bulk carrier which was transiting the Bab al-Mandeb strait, the fourth time the vessel has been targeted, according to Seatrade Maritme News.

Details of the latest attack are disputed, Houthis claim this was the second attack on the vessel, which was hit by a maritime drone. Unverified footage of a drone attacking a ship has emerged on social media. The crew of the Greek-owned ship say there have been no injuries in the attacks.

A second vessel, the 37,600 dwt product tanker Stolt Sequoia, was also said to have been hit by cruise missiles according to Houthi military commander Yahya Saree.

Both ships were said to have been attacked in the last 24 hours, with the Stolt vessel hit while in the Indian Ocean, and the bulker targeted in the Red Sea.

US Central Command claimed in a social media post that the bulk carriers had been targeted by unmanned aerial system at 4.00am local time yesterday.

 “This marks the fourth attack by Iranian-backed Houthis on the Transworld Navigator. US Centcom confirmed that, the crew reported minor injuries and moderate damage to the ship, but the vessel has continued underway.

According to defence specialists Ambrey, the Houthis first successfully used a Remote Controlled-Water Borne Improvised Explosive Device on the June 12, when another Liberia-flagged bulk carrier, the 82,400 dwt Tutor, was impacted off Yemen’s Red Sea coast, near Hodeida.

The impact of the maritime drone caused the engine room to flood. Three hours thereafter, the vessel was targeted with a missile. One crewmember was reportedly killed following the attack, making this the second incident with crew fatality.

The crew was evacuated by military forces and the ship left not under control, and subsequently reported as sunk six days after the attack when an oil slick was spotted near Tutor's last known location.

The maritime drone was described as a 5-7 meter long white-hulled boat manned with two dummies.

Houthis movement press also claim to have forced the US to withdraw its carrier, the Dwight D. Eisenhower, following missiles targeting the vessel.

US Centcom said that the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group had ended its seven-month tour of duty and will be replaced by the Theodore Roosevelt carrier group.

Houthis have frequently exaggerated the damage caused by their attacks on shipping in the region, though their effectiveness has increased in recent weeks.

 

 

India: Water crisis can impact sovereign rating

India's worsening water shortage, triggered by high consumption amid rapid economic growth and frequent natural disasters, can negatively impact the South Asian nation's sovereign credit strength, Moody's Ratings said on Tuesday.

Millions of Indians face water shortages every summer when water demand rises in farms, offices and homes against a limited supply, but a prolonged heatwave this year has worsened the shortfall, including in Delhi and the southern tech hub of Bengaluru.

"This is detrimental to the credit health of the sovereign, as well as sectors that heavily consume water, such as coal power generators and steel-makers," Moody's Ratings said in a note.

"In the long term, investment in water management can mitigate risks from potential water shortages," it added.

India's average annual water availability per capita is likely to drop to 1,367 cubic meters by 2031 from an already-low 1,486 cubic meters in 2021, according to the Ministry of Water Resources.

A level below 1,700 cubic meters indicates water stress, with 1,000 cubic meters being the threshold for water scarcity, according to the ministry.

"Decreases in water supply can disrupt agricultural production and industrial operations, resulting in inflation in food prices and declines in income for affected businesses and communities, while sparking social unrest," Moody's said.

This, in turn, can exacerbate volatility in India's growth, it warned.

Increases in the frequency of water shortage, severity or durations of extreme climate events stemming from climate change will exacerbate the situation because India heavily relies on monsoon rainfall for water supply, the global agency said.

Industrialisation and urbanisation will intensify competition for water among businesses and residents, it added.

The sustainable finance market in India can provide companies and regional governments with a critical avenue to raise funds, it said. Moody's currently has a Baa3 rating on India with a stable outlook.

 

 

 

Monday, 24 June 2024

Israel: More Strategic Installations Exposed

The military media of Hezbollah has released a new video showing vital Israeli targets known only to the Israeli security system.

This was released as Israeli officials are making threats to launch a full-fledged war on Lebanon although military experts say the Israeli occupation regime does not have the capability or manpower of doing so against a formidable Lebanese force. 

The new video included a segment from a speech by Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in which he warned the occupation regime that the Lebanese resistance would fight without constraints, rules, or limits if war were imposed on Lebanon. 

He emphasized that those contemplating war against Lebanon would regret it. 

Nasrallah’s words in the new clip were accompanied by translations into English and Hebrew, while the video displayed coordinates, both longitude and latitude for the targets presented without naming them. 

Before the video was aired Hezbollah’s military media published a statement saying: “Stay tuned… for those concerned.”

According to reliable sources cited by regional media, the video was intentionally vague, with no specific targets identified. The sources explained that it was a message understood only by decision-makers and relevant circles in Israel. 

Israeli media covered the new revelation with deep interest, underlining that it included an official threat to the headquarters of the Ministry of Security in Tel Aviv. 

Israeli media reported that the “HaKirya compound” appears in the video, housing the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of Security, the General Staff of the Army, and several high-ranking military leaders. 

Additionally, the video showed a military satellite base and military bases, as well as others in the Negev and Galilee regions. It also included Ashdod Port, Ben Gurion Airport, oil refineries in Haifa, and Haifa port, according to Israeli media.

Other reports also cited sources as saying the new video shows vital targets in Haifa, Ashdod port, the Hadera power station, Ramat David Military Airport in Afula, Ben Gurion Airport, Nevatim Airbase, the Negev desert, oil refineries on the coast, satellite area in Yehuda and the research center at the Dimona Nuclear Reactor. 

As Israeli officials are threatening full-scale war on Lebanon the Israeli minister for war, Yoav Gallant, traveled to Washington on Sunday to increase the rhetoric.
The ground commander of the Iranian army warned about the possibility of a regional war if Tel Aviv decides to attack Lebanon. 

Sources within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq say tens of thousands of fighters would open a major front from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights if Hezbollah was attacked. 

Yemen’s Ansarullah have declared their intentions to significantly expand the battlefield as well if Israeli leaders make such a “foolish decision”. 

Hezbollah says it has the manpower (estimated by some experts at a quarter of a million) and many precision-guided missiles, drones, and torpedoes to take Israel back to the stone-age. 

The latest video clip was released days after Lebanon’s Hezbollah released more than 9 minutes of footage from a drone that flew undetected to Haifa and safely returned to Lebanon. 

Footage in that video showed aerial reconnaissance from Kiryat Shmona to the cities of Karmiel, Nahariya, Safed, and Afula, reaching as far as Haifa and sensitive sites across the city. 

The scenes have caused significant concern among the Israeli security apparatus, with officials and media acknowledging Hezbollah’s substantial and effective intelligence capabilities, and Tel Aviv’s inability to handle the threat posed by the resistance movement’s drones.

On the same day that the new video was released, Hezbollah released details of the latest operations it waged against the Israeli military over the past 24 hours in solidarity with Gaza. 

A statement underlined that in support of the resilient Palestinian people in Gaza and bolster their honorable resistance, the Islamic Resistance (Hezbollah) conducted a number of operations against Israeli army positions and deployments along the Lebanese-Palestinian borders. 

According to the statement, the operations included: 

Targeting a building used by Israeli soldiers in the Menara settlement with appropriate weapons, resulting in direct hits, in response to Israeli attacks on steadfast southern villages and safe houses, especially in the town of Mays al-Jabal. 

Targeting buildings used by Israeli soldiers in the Metula settlement with appropriate weapons, resulting in direct hits that caused fires. 

Targeting the Zabdine site in the occupied Lebanese Sheba’a farms with rocket weapons, resulting in a direct hit. 

Targeting the Rmeitha site in the occupied Kafrchouba hills of Lebanon with rocket weapons, resulting in a direct hit. 

Targeting buildings used by enemy soldiers in the Metula colony with appropriate weapons, resulting in direct hits. 
 

 

Suez Canal revenue drops by almost half

The revenue of Egypt's Suez Canal has declined by almost half this year following attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthi which have seen many vessels divert via the Cape of Good Hope.

According to Egypt’s Al-Mal News, data released this week for last month shows that revenues of the Suez Canal dropped by 64.3% to approximately US$337.8 million, as compared to US$648 million recorded in May 2023.

The number of vessels transiting the canal in May also dropped to 1,111, which is lower than 2,396 ships that crossed during a similar period last year.

As a result of reduced ship traffic, the cargo volume passing through the Suez Canal dropped by 68.5% last month to about 44.9 million tons. In May 2023, the total cargo tonnage was 142.9 million tons.

The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) Chief Osama Rabie said in media statements last week that the canal's income decreased to US$428 million in January compared to US$804 million in the same period in the previous year.

According to the head of the SCA, Osama Rabie, the traffic of ships in the waterway witnessed a 30% decline compared to the same period of 2023.

During the fiscal year 2022/2023, the returns from the Suez Canal hit a record-breaking $9.4 billion.

The SCA has extended fee discounts for a range of vessels on selected long-distance trades. Initially, SCA had introduced the fee reductions back in January, with some discounts as high as 75% for product tankers and crude carriers on voyages between Americas and Asia.

The new extension of discount rates will be valid until end of the year, covering 12 categories of ships including bulk carriers, container ships and LNG carriers.

Pakistan: Current Account turns negative

Pakistan’s current account (CA) posted the first deficit in four months in May 2024, of US$270 million against a surplus of US$499 million a month ago.

CA deficit during 11MFY24 grew to US$464 million against a deficit of US$3.8 billion in the corresponding period last year.

A large primary income deficit of US$1.4 billion was the key reason behind the negative figure, without which CA balance would have been comfortably positive, despite a wider good trade deficit.

The primary deficit ballooned to US$1.4 billion (highest ever level) due to US$1.5 billion worth of payments. These payments included interest on foreign debt and backlog of dividends of multinational companies. As per the central bank, the latter has been nearly completely settled; hence the primary income deficit should moderate to around US$500 million in the coming months.

Goods trade deficit was reported at US$2.0 billion in May, higher than US$1.8 billion in April and doubling YoY. 

Imports of US$5.0 billion were at the highest level in FY24 to date, up 13%MoM and 35%YoY.

The sequential growth in imports was led by seasonally higher petroleum imports (up 8%MoM) and 12% higher machinery imports. Iron & Steel imports (scrap and other raw materials) rose 40%YoY.

This is also seasonal and does not point to a sustainable rebound in construction activity (down 3%YoY in 11MFY24). 

Exports were up a healthy 17%YoY, mainly driven by exports of textiles (up 18%YoY, seasonal) and food (up 55%YoY. Rice exports doubled YoY).

Remittances in May were an impressive US$3.2 billion, up 15%MoM and 54%YoY, ahead of the Eid-ul-Adha holidays, likely to normalize to around US$2.5 billion in the coming months, in our view.

SBP’s Forex reserves were reported at US$9.1 billion

SBP’s Forex reserves remained flat around US$9.1 billion by mid-June 2024, equivalent to just about two months’ imports.

The SBP began cutting interest rates in June, by 150bps, taking the policy rate to 20.5%.

Many industries (cement, autos, steel) are operating at very low utilization levels (50-60%); any likely increase in imports could increase trade deficit.

Tough budgetary measures for the real estate and textile industries may extend the spell of weak demand a few more months (keeping the growth in imports moderate).

CAD crossing US$500 million is a key risk and can have negative implications for the exchange rate, inflation and monetary policy,.

 

Sunday, 23 June 2024

Israeli ships targeted by resistance groups

The recent joint military operations carried out by regional resistance groups against Israeli ships have demonstrated a growing sense of solidarity and sent a powerful message of unity amid the regime’s genocidal war on Gaza.

Yemen’s Ansarullah movement and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which is an umbrella group of anti-terror fighters in the Arab country, have conducted the operations. 

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq confirmed on Sunday that it had hit four ships in the Israeli port of Haifa and one ship in the Mediterranean through joint drone attacks with Ansarullah. The vessel that was hit in the Mediterranean was sailing to Haifa Port.

It said the military operations were launched in solidarity with the people of Gaza and vowed to continue attacks against the enemy's strongholds, which is a reference to Israeli interests. 

The Ansarullah movement also confirmed the joint attacks. 

“The two operations successfully achieved their goals, and the strikes were precise and direct," the spokesman for the Yemeni armed forces said. 

Yahya Saree also said on Saturday that the Yemeni army targeted the US aircraft carrier Eisenhower in the Red Sea with missiles. 

He said the move was in line with efforts to express solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. Saree noted that the attacks were also a response to American and British strikes against Yemen. 

The Yemeni and Iraqi resistance forces have been hitting Israeli targets since the regime declared war on Gaza on October 07, 2023. 

The Yemeni army has launched several drone and missile attacks against Israeli ships and vessels affiliated to the regime in the Red Sea since November.

The Ansarullah said it would stop the attacks if Israel ended its relentless air and ground attacks on Gaza. 

Nonetheless, the US and the UK chose to escalate the situation after they began strikes against Yemen in early January in response to the targeting of Israeli vessels. 

This prompted the Ansarullah movement to order the army to target American and British warships in the Red Sea over the complicity of London and Washington with the Tel Aviv regime’s crimes against Palestinians. 

The US and UK attacks against Yemen have not only failed to deter the country from targeting Israeli interests, but they have also led to greater unity among the axis of regional resistance. Growing unity among resistance groups was thrust into the spotlight after the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and the Ansarullah movement teamed up to target the Israeli ships. 

More than 260 days have passed since Israel began the onslaught, which has claimed the lives of about 37,600 Palestinians. But the regime has failed to eliminate Hamas which has been its main military goal since the war erupted. 

According to Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military spokesman, “This business of destroying Hamas, making Hamas disappear — it’s simply throwing sand in the eyes of the public…. Hamas is an idea; Hamas is a party. It’s rooted in the hearts of the people — anyone who thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong”. 

Israel has suffered crushing blows at the hands of Hamas fighters in the Gaza battlefield. Israel’s warmongering against Lebanon’s Hezbollah has also brought the regime nothing more than humiliation.  

Both Israel and its Western allies, in particular the United States, have been under the illusion that they are able to eliminate regional resistance groups through military means. 

The US has repeatedly targeted resistance groups in West Asia that are opposed to Israel’s war on Gaza and Washington’s support for the regime. These American strikes have been aimed at deterring the groups from conducting military operations against the US and its protégé, Israel. 

However, growing resistance against the US hegemony and Israel’s occupation and savagery has clearly shown that Israelis and their Western masters are just building castles in the air.