Pakistan: Current Account turns negative

Pakistan’s current account (CA) posted the first deficit in four months in May 2024, of US$270 million against a surplus of US$499 million a month ago.

CA deficit during 11MFY24 grew to US$464 million against a deficit of US$3.8 billion in the corresponding period last year.

A large primary income deficit of US$1.4 billion was the key reason behind the negative figure, without which CA balance would have been comfortably positive, despite a wider good trade deficit.

The primary deficit ballooned to US$1.4 billion (highest ever level) due to US$1.5 billion worth of payments. These payments included interest on foreign debt and backlog of dividends of multinational companies. As per the central bank, the latter has been nearly completely settled; hence the primary income deficit should moderate to around US$500 million in the coming months.

Goods trade deficit was reported at US$2.0 billion in May, higher than US$1.8 billion in April and doubling YoY. 

Imports of US$5.0 billion were at the highest level in FY24 to date, up 13%MoM and 35%YoY.

The sequential growth in imports was led by seasonally higher petroleum imports (up 8%MoM) and 12% higher machinery imports. Iron & Steel imports (scrap and other raw materials) rose 40%YoY.

This is also seasonal and does not point to a sustainable rebound in construction activity (down 3%YoY in 11MFY24). 

Exports were up a healthy 17%YoY, mainly driven by exports of textiles (up 18%YoY, seasonal) and food (up 55%YoY. Rice exports doubled YoY).

Remittances in May were an impressive US$3.2 billion, up 15%MoM and 54%YoY, ahead of the Eid-ul-Adha holidays, likely to normalize to around US$2.5 billion in the coming months, in our view.

SBP’s Forex reserves were reported at US$9.1 billion

SBP’s Forex reserves remained flat around US$9.1 billion by mid-June 2024, equivalent to just about two months’ imports.

The SBP began cutting interest rates in June, by 150bps, taking the policy rate to 20.5%.

Many industries (cement, autos, steel) are operating at very low utilization levels (50-60%); any likely increase in imports could increase trade deficit.

Tough budgetary measures for the real estate and textile industries may extend the spell of weak demand a few more months (keeping the growth in imports moderate).

CAD crossing US$500 million is a key risk and can have negative implications for the exchange rate, inflation and monetary policy,.

 

New expressions being used to describe Pakistan-IMF relations

Some scary words were heard about Pakistan politics and economy on Thursday about. Historically, politics has always remained volatile in Pakistan. However, the current status of economy needs utmost as well as immediate and focused attention of all the stakeholders.

A statement came out from IMF yesterday morning saying that the Fund remains engaged with Pakistan on the program, despite the recent happenings in politics which give some confidence to market participants.

However, the same statement says that the country will ‘durably allow, market-based exchange rate and will scrap the fuel subsidy program. PKR depreciated and was very close to crossing the PKR300 mark.  

Another IMF statement on Pakistan yesterday said that the country requires ‘significant’ more financing in order for IMF SLA to go through.

The explicit meaning of ‘durably allow’ and ‘significant’ is very unclear right now as it is difficult to understand what exactly more is required from the IMF side.

Finance Minister also spoke in an event yesterday saying we will not accept IMF demands any more as a lot has already been done and Pakistan will not default, without the IMF.

It appears he meant to say Pakistan will not default without IMF under his remaining tenure which is of less than 3 months now before the term of current government ends.

 

Pakistan textile sector performance far from satisfactory

In continuation of the previous month's positive performance, external trade shows improvement in November 2016 exports amounting to US$1.76 billion, exhibiting reversal from the consistent monthly downward trend seen this year. Textiles and clothing sector, which constitutes more than 60% of country's exports also picked pace, rising 9.7%YoY to US$1.05 billion during the month under review. This growth was broad-based recovery in both low value (+15.6%YoY) and value-added segments (+7.6%YoY). However, on a cumulative basis, 5MFY17 textile exports were still lower at US$5.13 billion.

Going forward, analysts expect textile exports to largely remain under pressure due to: 1) demand side bottlenecks with weak Chinese demand outlook and economic slowdown in the EU following Brexit, 2) lower currency competitiveness amid sharp depreciation in regional currencies and 3) low commodity prices. That said, sector anxiously await yet to be announced incentive package estimated around Rs75 billion by the Government of Pakistan (GoP). This aimed at enhancing export competitiveness over regional countries and providing relief to the textile sector. Moreover, encouraging cotton arrivals to date for MY17 (up 12.33%YoY to 10.14 million bales) is expected to reduce cotton shortfall next year.

Performance of the value added sector posted growth with Knitwear, Readymade garments and Bedwear registering double digit growth. Moreover, the low valued added segment depicted commendable recovery after a consistent decline this year, where exports of cotton yarn increased by 42.1%YoY/10.3%MoM. However, on a cumulative basis, textile exports after recovery still remain unimpressive with 5MFY17 exports recording a decline of 2.0%YoY.

According to the fortnightly cotton arrivals report of PCGA, a total of 10.14 million bales arrived in the country by Mid December this year as against 9.03 million bales last year, up 12.33%YoY. Arrivals from Punjab increased by 19.38%YoY to 6.44 million bales, while flows from Sindh increased marginally by 1.86%YoY to 3.70 million. Initially the GoP had fixed the target of cotton for MY17 around 14 million bales, which was later slashed to less than 11 million bales. In an attempt to ensure ample availability of cotton in the country, the GoP has also lifted ban on cotton from India.

Going forward, any substantial increase in the export of textiles and clothing seems unlikely amid emerging: 1) concerns on low currency competitiveness following sharp decline in regional currencies, 2) risk of potential decline in exports to European Union post Brexist and 3) sluggish Chinese demand. The added irritants are disruption in supply of electricity and gas despite high tariffs. Ministry of Textiles, Ministry of Commerce and Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) seems to have gone into complete hibernation.