Saturday, 10 February 2024

Why delay in accepting people verdict

It is indeed regrettable that, as of February 11, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has not been able to announce the final results despite the balloting taking place on February 08. Numerous complaints have surfaced regarding pre, during, and post-election rigging.

Media reports, both local and international, suggest that no party has secured a simple majority. However, both PPP and PML assert their ability to form a government, albeit with the support of other parties. Meanwhile, a group of independents, largely associated with Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI), has achieved significant victories but is urged to align with a political party due to perceived incapability of independently forming a government.

According to the Free and Fair Election Network, around 60 million out of over 128 million registered voters participated in the February 8th election.

In response, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) conveyed a message from Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Gen. Asim Munir, extending congratulations to the nation for the successful execution of the general elections. Gen. Munir praised the interim setup, the ECP, political parties, and the victorious candidates for their respective roles in the electoral process.

Highlighting the enthusiastic participation of the Pakistani populace, Gen. Munir emphasized its significance as a testament to their dedication to democracy and adherence to the constitution. He also commended the law-enforcement agencies for ensuring a secure environment for the elections despite considerable challenges.

Friday, 9 February 2024

Ethnic cleansing about to start in Rafah

Humanitarian groups are warning that any invasion of Rafah will severely threaten the last remaining safe zone in Gaza, where around 1.5 million Palestinians are huddled.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepared his troops to prepare an evacuation plan for civilians in the city of Rafah, a major refugee camp called the last safe zone in Gaza.

Netanyahu said troops must fight against Palestinian militant group Hamas in the southern Gaza refugee camp, where the United Nations has warned more than 600,000 children are sheltering.

"It is impossible to achieve the goal of the war without eliminating Hamas," Netanyahu said, accusing the militant group of hiding battalions in Rafah.

Humanitarian groups warn that fleeing civilians have nowhere else to go and that Rafah is a major hub for humanitarian aid from Egypt that will be endangered by Israel moving in.

Avril Benoît, executive director of Doctors Without Borders USA, said the "needs are overwhelming" in Rafah.

"Israel’s declared ground offensive on Rafah would be catastrophic and must not proceed," Benoît said.

The Israeli push into Rafah also threatens to increase tensions between Israel and the US, which is trying to get Israel to reduce civilian casualties after the deaths of more than 27,000 people in Gaza.

President Biden offered his most critical remarks yet when he said Thursday night that Israel's offensive in Gaza is "over the top."

State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said the US would not support a push into Rafah.

“To conduct such an operation right now with no planning and little thought in an area where there is sheltering of a million people would be a disaster,” he told reporters.

 

Israel recognition, most Arabs say never

The comprehensive poll, which gauged sentiments across 16 Arab countries, underscores a growing resistance against normalization with Israel in the wake of the Israeli war on Gaza.

A significant shift has been seen in Arab public opinion on the recognition of Israel, according to a new survey conducted by the Arab Center Washington DC (ACW), in collaboration with The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS).

The comprehensive poll, which gauged sentiments across 16 Arab countries, underscores a growing resistance against normalization with Israel in the wake of the Israeli war on Gaza.

A striking 89% of respondents from the Arab world expressed opposition to the recognition of Israel, marking a discernible increase from previous polls. This figure not only represents a nearly unanimous stance against normalization but also indicates a 5% rise in opposition compared to the results from the 2022 survey, where 84% were against recognition.

The survey detailed notable country-specific shifts in public opinion, highlighting a dramatic change in perspective among nations that have historically taken steps toward normalizing relations with Israel.

In Saudi Arabia, opposition surged from 38% in 2022 to a remarkable 68% in the latest poll. Morocco saw an increase from 67% to 78% and Sudan from 72% to 81%, showcasing a significant hardening of attitudes across diverse Arab societies

These findings signal a profound and growing sentiment within the Arab world, reflecting deep-seated frustrations and disillusionment with the peace process and the broader implications of normalization agreements.

The ACW's report emphasizes that, despite diplomatic efforts and political maneuvers, the grassroots opposition to recognizing Israel remains robust and is, in fact, intensifying.

The heightened opposition is especially pronounced in countries that have formal peace agreements with Israel, such as Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as those like Sudan, which have recently begun normalizing political relations.

Despite governmental moves towards diplomacy, there appears to be a near-consensus among the populations of these nations against the recognition of Israel, underscoring a significant disconnect between official policy and public sentiment.

The ACW survey sheds light on the complex and evolving dynamics of Arab-Israeli relations, capturing a moment of significant transition in the Arab public's stance towards Israel and the peace process.

As the region grapples with the aftermath of the Gaza war and its broader geopolitical implications, the overwhelming opposition to Israel's recognition among the Arab public stands as a testament to the enduring and shared solidarity with the Palestinian cause.

 

Thursday, 8 February 2024

Pakistan: Election outcome not likely to resolve political crisis

Lackluster from the beginning, the exercise concluded with a whimper last evening. Amidst limited reporting due to the suspension of communication services, there were some reports of delays in the polling process and various violations of rules and the election code of conduct.

Thankfully, no major incidents of violence were reported and voting seems to have concluded in most places smoothly and uneventfully. It seems that all that remains now is the counting of votes and declaration of winners. As results trickle in overnight, we will learn how many chose to exercise their right to franchise on this historic occasion.

Till a clearer picture emerges, some reflections on the exercise: These elections had been critical for Pakistan for various important reasons.

The country is mired in unprecedented economic and social challenges, which cannot be solved except by a stable government that enjoys strong public support for its decisions.

Given its dependence on international assistance, it is also important for it to stabilize socially so that lenders and investors can feel safe about their decisions. With so many different forces pulling the country at its seams, it was almost good luck that a general election became due last year.

All that was needed was for the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to let the candidates campaign without restrictions, prepare the grounds for a clean and non-controversial contest, assist the country’s adult population in freely exercising their right to self-determination, conduct a transparent count of their ballots, and quietly and respectfully bow out.

As history will bear witness, ECP failed on almost all of those counts. From repeatedly delaying the elections on one pretext or the other to failing to protect the legitimacy of its last act, it betrayed its mandate by organizing an exercise that will be remembered for all the wrong reasons.

It is difficult not to be disappointed: given the number of times the ECP hid behind the Constitution’s ‘free and fair’ condition to justify putting them off ‘till it was ready’, one would have imagined the exercise, whenever it was eventually held, would be largely irreproachable.

Of course, the blame does not lie with the ECP alone. The caretaker government and the entire machinery of the state are equally culpable in robbing it of its sanctity. Their actions worsened political polarization, and they did not know when to stop.

As a result, the exercise was doomed to controversy well before it began. It already seems clear that it will not provide any closure for the country’s political crisis.

Crisis and instability will likely continue to plague the nation, with dissent kept in check through the use of fear tactics. It is a shame that such a momentous opportunity has been so carelessly lost.

Courtesy: Dawn

Next Prime Minister of Pakistan

Who will emerge as the next Prime Minister of Pakistan remains a topic of speculation following the recently conducted general elections on February 8, 2024?

Despite the overall peaceful conduct of the elections, a notable hiccup was the complete shutdown of mobile phones. While the voter turnout was reasonably good, there were areas where the election arrangements could have been more efficient.

In Karachi, candidates from PML-N and PPP garnered attention due to the allocation of proper symbols, but PTI sympathizers faced confusion with different symbols in each constituency. Jamat-e-Islami also stood out, having invested a significant amount of money, especially in conventional and social media.

The political landscape now has analysts and pundits in a state of perplexity, fearing the absence of a two-thirds majority for any political party.

The potential outcome could be a hung parliament, leading to the necessity of political parties forming unconventional alliances, complicating the governance of the country.

Concerns also arise regarding the likelihood of extensive "Horse Trading," particularly if independent candidates secure a significant number of wins.

Moreover, there is apprehension that the ensuing government might struggle to formulate sound economic policies, contributing to a lack of focus on both economic and foreign policy matters.

It is crucial for the incoming government, regardless of its leadership, to prioritize and address economic and foreign policy issues to steer clear of uncertainties and potential challenges posed by turncoats.

Wednesday, 7 February 2024

What after China recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan?

On 30 January, 2024, President Xi Jinping provided further evidence that China formally recognizes the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. China’s recognition of the Taliban is its latest and most outrageous slap to the face of the so called democracies, led by United States, who have not recognized Taliban government as yet.

The opponents of Afghanistan have immediately termed this a dangerous international precedent and a morally moribund approach to international relations which puts selfish resource security concerns firmly ahead of human rights and global wellbeing as China’s primary philosophical approach to international affairs.

They say the event is representative of the fundamental reason strategic competition with China is so important. When distilled to its purist form, it is a protracted attritional duel between liberal democracy and authoritarian socialism that is quickly devolving into a slap fight.

It is alleged that prior to the Taliban’s resurgence, China maintained a cooperative relationship with the Afghan government, which included security collaboration against Uyghur militants.

They also say, following the Taliban’s takeover, China initiated engagement with the new regime, aiming to prevent terrorism from affecting its regional interests and to secure its investments, including those related to the Belt and Road Initiative.

The ethical dimensions of China’s interactions with the Taliban are seemingly complex, even on the surface. On one hand, China’s engagement is driven by security concerns and economic interests, particularly in mining and infrastructure. On the other hand, the Taliban’s lack of international recognition and domestic legitimacy raises questions about the long-term viability of these agreements.

China’s promise of economic and development support to the Taliban, in exchange for security assurances, reflects a strategic approach that prioritizes resource stability and the suppression of Uyghur militancy.

This is consistent with the broader narrative that China’s rise should not be feared, rather it should be welcomed as a blessing for global development and prosperity. In this regard, China’s policy towards Afghanistan could be described as clear and consistent with its approach to any country, emphasising non-interference and respect for sovereignty.

Critics of Taliban say, the practical aspects of its engagement with the Taliban present a moral quandary that is an affront to the global norms for free societies. The Taliban’s abuses of human rights are well recorded. Their suppression of women and girls, assault on freedom of speech, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and torture neatly reflect the same accusations levelled against China.

They say, it makes sense that China has added the Taliban to its collection of thugs, villains, and reprobates which are considered its closest allies.

President Xi receiving the credentials of the Taliban Ambassador to Beijing could, perhaps, be perceived as an arcane diplomatic tradition. The reality, however, is that in doing so the Chinese government has provided tacit recognition of the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan.

This has dreadful implications for the women, children, resistance fighters, and civil society activists who have all been brave enough to stay or unable to leave and who should all be afforded the same freedoms as me. It also sets the preconditions for the Chinese to pull levers of influence to broaden official recognition; levers established through debt dependencies that compromise the sovereign decision-making capacity of beholden nations. It is an anathema to how democracies want to act domestically and internationally.

There is an additional, not-so-hidden subtext at this stage of the slap fight between liberal democracy and autocratic socialism. China has taken a clumsy swing at the face of every country that tried and failed to bring sustainable democracy to Afghanistan for 20 years, and who dramatically left in ignominy just over two years ago. Sadly, it has landed as a low blow that could have dangerous consequences.

 

 

US targets Iran-backed militia official in Iraq

The US said Wednesday it killed a senior commander in Iraq with the Iranian-backed militia group Kata’ib Hezbollah who was involved in planning attacks on American troops.

The commander was killed during a strike that took place around 9:30 pm local time, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM).

“The United States will continue to take necessary action to protect our people,” CENTCOM said in a statement. “We will not hesitate to hold responsible all those who threaten our forces’ safety.”

CENTCOM said there were no civilian casualties or collateral damage from the strike.

The strike hit a car in a busy section of eastern Baghdad, killing the commander and two other Kataib Hezbollah officials, according to The Associated Press.

Pro-Iranian statements on Telegram and on state-run media channels named the slain commander as Abu Bakr al-Saadi, a high-ranking Kata'ib Hezbollah official.

The strike is the latest US military action against Iranian-backed militia groups, and the first attack in Iraq since Washington hit more than 85 targets last week across Iraq and Syria in response to attacks that killed three American troops in Jordan in late January, which the Biden administration said was carried out by Iranian proxies.

Last week’s strikes, conducted by B-1 bomber planes, targeted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iranian-backed militia groups. While the US action was meant to deter more aggression, the Iranian proxies have continued attacking American and allied bases in the region. 

The US officially blamed the Islamic Resistance in Iraq for the deadly attack in Jordan. But the Pentagon also suggested Kata'ib Hezbollah may have been behind the attack, with deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh saying the attack had the footprints of the militia group.

After the Jordan attack, Kata'ib Hezbollah said it was suspending military operations against American forces in Iraq, to avoid embarrassment to the Iraqi government.

The US has continued to carry out strikes in Iraq despite repeated condemnation from the Iraqi government, which is engaged in ongoing talks with Washington on the future of the American military presence in the country.