Pakistan: PTI decides to sit in opposition

According to Dawn, Pakistan Teheek-e-Insaf (PTI) of Imran Khan has finally decided to sit on the opposition benches in national and provincial assemblies. It also announced to launch countrywide protests against alleged rigging in the February 08 general elections.

A PTI source also told Dawn that the party’s incarcerated founder, Imran Khan, has tasked former National Assembly speaker Asad Qaiser with engaging political parties to muster support for the protest drive.

The party, which also issued a white paper against alleged rigging on Friday, has decided to kick off its demonstrations from Saturday.

A PTI delegation led by Qaisar met the leader of Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) and Qaumi Watan Party (QWP) on Friday, while a meeting with Pashtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party’s Mehmood Khan Achakzai is also scheduled to take place on Saturday.

Addressing a news conference after meeting with Aftab Sherpao, PTI leader Barrister Saif confirmed the decision to sit on the opposition benches in the Centre and Punjab Assembly.

In the second phase, these parties could form an alliance in the centre and provinces, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where PTI -backed independents are in a position to form the government with a two-thirds majority.

The PTI source added that even though the party has categorically announced it would not engage with the PPP and PML-N, efforts were underway for back-channel contacts with the former. If they do become allies, the PPP and PTI would have enough seats in the NA to form the government.

 

Pakistan Election Results, USIP Perspective

Days after Pakistan’s February 08 general election, the Election Commission of Pakistan released the official results confirming a major political upset. Contrary to what most political pundits and observers had predicted, independents aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats at the national level, followed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). No party won an absolute majority needed to form a government on its own, says a report released by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).

The resultant uncertainty means the United States may have to contend with a government that is more focused on navigating internal politics and less so on addressing strategic challenges.

On the one hand, the most likely scenario appears to be a coalition government that may struggle to muster the political strength to push through much-needed economic reforms and take on serious governance and security challenges.

On the other hand, several contenders have raised allegations of vote tampering that will call into question the credibility of a future government.

PTI-aligned candidates in particular claim that the delays in the final announcement of results are evidence of irregularities. Even before the election, it was clear that the electoral playing field was being tilted against the PTI.

The US State Department has noted allegations of interference in the electoral process and called for a full investigation. In its preliminary report, Pakistan’s polling watchdog, Free and Fair Election Network, noted that there was transparency at the polling stations, but it was compromised at the vote counting and tabulation stage.

Despite not winning the most seats, the PML-N is now trying to cobble together a coalition government with the PPP and MQM — as these parties together have a near majority of seats, which is required to form a government.

It has also nominated former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif — Nawaz Sharif’s brother — to lead the coalition as the new prime minister.

For its part, the PTI has announced intent to form a government at the center as well as in the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but it is unclear who it will ally with to get the majority required to form a government.

It is more likely that PTI-aligned candidates will sit in the opposition in the national assembly, as the party has made clear it will not ally with either the PML-N or PPP.

The victory of PTI-backed candidates defies the expectations of political pundits in Pakistan. It was widely anticipated that the PML-N would win and the PTI would lose the election.

At the heart of this projection was the state of the relationship between Khan and Pakistan’s powerful military establishment, which was seen to be backing the PML-N’s return to power and blocking Khan and his PTI.

Khan fell out with the military when his government was deposed in a vote of no confidence in 2022, which he charged was a regime-change operation orchestrated by the military with the United States.

His party has been in the line of fire since May 09, 2023, when its supporters attacked military establishments across the country. Khan himself has been in prison since last year due to several cases charging him with graft and improper handling of classified information, which meant he was unable to campaign for his party in the election.

Perhaps most significantly, leading up to the election, the PTI was also denied its election symbol (a cricket bat) by the Pakistani Supreme Court, which was widely seen as part of a broader campaign to tilt the electoral playing field against the party.

The fact that despite all these measures, PTI-backed candidates won such a large share is a remarkable outcome, making the 2024 election one of the most significant elections in contemporary Pakistani history.

One way to read the vote is that the Pakistani people have rejected the two traditional, dynastic parties — the PML-N and PPP — and embraced Khan’s aspirational, populist political platform.

Another way to read the outcome is that it is also a rejection of the military establishment’s role in politics, in particular its opposition to the PTI and the clampdown against the party since last year.

The results also point to Pakistanis’ discontent with the country’s overall trajectory and the electoral process being a solution to the challenges facing the country.

According to Gallup, Pakistanis are deeply pessimistic about the country’s economic future and they also question the fairness of the electoral process — before the election, seven in 10 Pakistanis said they lacked confidence in the honesty of the elections.

 

Independents: Game Changers or Spoilers

Pakistanis are still in suspense about which political party will emerge victorious in the latest general elections, leaving uncertainty regarding the next government and prime minister even after four days of intense competition.

Despite facing challenges such as the detention of a former prime minister and obstacles for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), independent candidates supported by the party have surprised observers by securing a substantial number of National Assembly seats, the highest among all parties. However, this falls short of the 169-seat simple majority needed to form a government.

The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), led by another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, secured the second position. Despite expectations of an easy victory, backed by the influential administration, Sharif's return to power remains uncertain, five years after his disgraceful departure from Pakistan.

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, claimed the third spot.

The constitutional deadline for political parties to establish a government is February 29, three weeks after election day. The National Assembly comprises 336 seats, with 266 determined by direct voting and 70 reserved for women (60) and non-Muslims (10), allocated based on each party's strength.

Given the fragmented mandate without a clear majority, political parties must find common ground or consider forming a coalition to govern. Despite both independent candidates and PML-N declaring victory, a coalition government seems inevitable.

Potential scenarios include a coalition between PML-N and PPP, though the choice for the next prime minister poses a challenge. Another possibility is a PPP alliance with Khan’s followers, although the PTI may choose to sit in the opposition rather than forming a coalition, according to Khan's media advisor, Zulfi Bukhari.

A less likely scenario involves PML-N forming a coalition with PTI and other parties, acknowledging that PTI's influence cannot be disregarded. Some voters, even those who did not support Imran Khan earlier, express a sense of injustice in the way the administration has treated him and his party over the past two years.

Another option involves PTI-backed independents merging with smaller parties to create a coalition government, combining their seats and capitalizing on the 60 National Assembly seats reserved for women. However, the PTI's ability to form a coalition government seems improbable, as alliances with smaller parties still fall short of a majority.

For the PTI, reaching out to smaller parties may lack numerical advantages, serving more as a legal requirement than a strategic move to gain substantial support. The uncertainty surrounding the formation of the next government adds complexity to the post-election landscape in Pakistan.

Khan followers bag largest number of seats

According to Saudi Gazette, from Pakistan's electoral battlefield, candidates affiliated with the imprisoned ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), emerge as the front-runners in the final count of the February 08, 2024 general elections.

This conclusion came amid heightened scrutiny over the delayed announcement, which spanned nearly three days post-election, sparking debates over the vote-counting integrity.

The PTI-backed independent candidates secured a leading 101 seats. Trailing behind were the contenders from the Pakistan Muslim League — Nawaz (PML-N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, with 75 seats, and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), under the leadership of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, which claimed 54 seats.

Additional seats were distributed among various parties, including the Muttahida Quami Movement Pakistan, which captured 17 seats.

The election for one seat has been postponed, with the results for another being withheld. To establish a government, a party or coalition needs to command at least 169 seats out of the 336 available in the National Assembly, aiming for a simple majority.

The announcement has also ignited a wave of protests across the nation, with PTI, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl, and Jamaat-e-Islami leading the charge against what they allege to be widespread electoral fraud.

Major cities like Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, and Peshawar have become stages for these demonstrations. In parallel, numerous candidates have taken legal routes, filing petitions to contest the declared outcomes.

 

Why delay in accepting people verdict

It is indeed regrettable that, as of February 11, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has not been able to announce the final results despite the balloting taking place on February 08. Numerous complaints have surfaced regarding pre, during, and post-election rigging.

Media reports, both local and international, suggest that no party has secured a simple majority. However, both PPP and PML assert their ability to form a government, albeit with the support of other parties. Meanwhile, a group of independents, largely associated with Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI), has achieved significant victories but is urged to align with a political party due to perceived incapability of independently forming a government.

According to the Free and Fair Election Network, around 60 million out of over 128 million registered voters participated in the February 8th election.

In response, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) conveyed a message from Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Gen. Asim Munir, extending congratulations to the nation for the successful execution of the general elections. Gen. Munir praised the interim setup, the ECP, political parties, and the victorious candidates for their respective roles in the electoral process.

Highlighting the enthusiastic participation of the Pakistani populace, Gen. Munir emphasized its significance as a testament to their dedication to democracy and adherence to the constitution. He also commended the law-enforcement agencies for ensuring a secure environment for the elections despite considerable challenges.

Next Prime Minister of Pakistan

Who will emerge as the next Prime Minister of Pakistan remains a topic of speculation following the recently conducted general elections on February 8, 2024?

Despite the overall peaceful conduct of the elections, a notable hiccup was the complete shutdown of mobile phones. While the voter turnout was reasonably good, there were areas where the election arrangements could have been more efficient.

In Karachi, candidates from PML-N and PPP garnered attention due to the allocation of proper symbols, but PTI sympathizers faced confusion with different symbols in each constituency. Jamat-e-Islami also stood out, having invested a significant amount of money, especially in conventional and social media.

The political landscape now has analysts and pundits in a state of perplexity, fearing the absence of a two-thirds majority for any political party.

The potential outcome could be a hung parliament, leading to the necessity of political parties forming unconventional alliances, complicating the governance of the country.

Concerns also arise regarding the likelihood of extensive "Horse Trading," particularly if independent candidates secure a significant number of wins.

Moreover, there is apprehension that the ensuing government might struggle to formulate sound economic policies, contributing to a lack of focus on both economic and foreign policy matters.

It is crucial for the incoming government, regardless of its leadership, to prioritize and address economic and foreign policy issues to steer clear of uncertainties and potential challenges posed by turncoats.

Pakistan: Kakar appointed Caretaker Prime Minister

According to Pakistan’s leading English newspaper, Dawn, Baluchistan Awami Party (BAP) Senator Anwaarul Haq Kakar has been chosen as the interim prime minister of Pakistan. His job is to keep the country running until a new government is elected.

The much awaited announcement came after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and outgoing Opposition Leader in the National Assembly (NA) Raja Riaz reached a consensus over Kakar’s name for the coveted post during a meeting in Islamabad today.

Subsequently, the two leaders sent an advice regarding Kakar’s appointment as the caretaker prime minister to President Arif Alvi, who shortly afterwards accorded his assent.

“President Dr Arif Alvi has approved the appointment of Anwaarul Haq Kakar as caretaker prime minister. The president approved the appointment under Article 224-A of the Constitution,” a statement by the Aiwan-e-Sadr said.

Earlier, in a media talk outside the Prime Minister’s House after meeting PM Shehbaz, Riaz also confirmed that Kakar had been picked to head the interim set-up.

“We had earlier decided that the caretaker PM should be someone from a smaller province and a non-controversial personality. Our aim was to remove the sense of deprivation in small provinces.

“We have finally reached a consensus that Anwaarul Haq Kakar will be the caretaker PM,” Riaz said.

“I had given this name and the PM has consented to this name … I and the PM have signed on the summary,” he told reporters, adding Kakar would be sworn in on Sunday.

Anwaarul Haq Kakar was elected as an independent senator from Baluchistan in 2018, clinching a six-year term that will conclude in March 2024.

Simultaneously, he worked as chairperson of the Senate Standing Committee on Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development, and as a member of the Business Advisory Committee, Finance and Revenue, Foreign Affairs and Science and Technology.

Kakar also undertook the role of parliamentary leader for the Baluchistan Awami Party — formed in 2018 — within the Senate.

Kakar navigated this leadership position for considerable five-year duration. Nonetheless, a mere five months ago, the party resolved to opt for new leadership, leading to his replacement.

He also served as the spokesperson for the Baluchistan government from December 2015 to January 2018.

According to the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research (CSCR), an Islamabad-based research institute, Kakar holds a bachelor’s degree in political science and sociology from the University of Baluchistan.

The institute also mentioned Kakar’s proficiency in English, Urdu, Persian, Pushto, Balochi, and Brahvi languages.

Reacting to the development, former information minister and ex-PTI leader Fawad Chaudhry said Kakar was an “honest, educated and modest” Pakistani.

“After a long time, some good news has come for Pakistan. May God be your supporter and bless this decision for Pakistan,” he said on X, formerly known as Twitter.

PPP leader Faisal Karim Kundi welcomed the development and congratulated Kakar. “PPP left it to PM Shehbaz to nominate the caretaker prime minister with the consultation of opposition leader.

“Hope under his leadership Election Commission will conduct free and fair elections,” he added.

Contrary to his colleague Kundi, PPP’s Khursheed Shah opposed Kakar’s selection and said, “We were not aware that Anwaarul Haq’s name will be finalized, and it would have been better if another person was selected for the post.”

However, he added, “Anwaarul Haq Kakar would be remembered if he succeeds in ensuring transparent elections.

Shah told Dawn.com over the phone that the PPP had proposed five names for the interim PM, which did not include Kakar. He shared four names he said were recommended by the PPP — Salim Abbas Jilani, Jalil Abbas Jilani, Muhammad Malik and Afzal Khan.

“Whoever proposed his (Kakar) name, we should hope for good,” the PPP leader said.

PTI Senator Ali Zafar said Kakar is an “intelligent, articulate [and] reasonable man”.

“[He] believes in politics of cooperation not confrontation: has always well represented the interests of Baluchistan [sic]. Wish him the best,” he tweeted.

Separately, Bloomberg quoted political commentator Hasan Askari Rizvi as saying that Kakar’s true test would be whether he follows the IMF’s approach and conducts inclusive elections involving all political parties.

He separately told AFP that Kakar has a limited political career and not much weight in Pakistani politics, but that could work in his favour.

“This can be an advantage because he has no strong affiliation with the major political parties,” he said.

“But the disadvantage is that being a lightweight politician he may find it difficult to cope with the problems he’s going to face without the active support of the military establishment.”

Sources said PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif was insisting, through PM Shehbaz Sharif, on former finance minister Ishaq Dar to be picked as caretaker premier, and if not Dar, then former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi.

However, Riaz, a PTI dissident with no backing of a political party, was getting dictation from another power corridor and insisting on the name of Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani, sources claimed. Sanjrani called on Riaz on Friday, as well as Dar and Ahsan Iqbal.

Race for the position of next President of Pakistan

 The five-year term of incumbent President of Pakistan, Mamnoon Hussain, elected by the previous ruling party Pakistan Muslim League, Nawaz Sharif faction (PML-N), ends on 9th September 2018. He is eligible for re-election for the second term, but has declined to participate in the election.

The election for new president has been scheduled for 4th September 2018. In Pakistan, president is elected by the Electoral College, which comprises of Senate, National assembly and the provincial assemblies. Each member cast his/her vote at the respective assemblies to elect the next present.

The three candidates, who have filed their nomination papers for the election of president, are Arif Alvi nominated by the ruling party, Pakistan Tehreek Insaf (PTI). He has also won one seat in National Assembly. Aitzaz Ahsan is a former senator of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) from Punjab. Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, chief of JUI(F) is the joint candidate of Muthaida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) and PML(N). It is worth mentioning that Maulana was not elected by the voters from two of the constituencies of his own hometown Dera Ismail Khan. It appears that he is playing the final gamble to fetch the post of President of Pakistan to save his dignity, whatever is left.

PTI is not likely to face any competition in winning the presidential elections because the opposition that came in assemblies bragging to be a strong opposition and claiming to give a tough time to PTI and its allies is proving a house of cards. They could not remain on the same page regarding nomination of the joint candidate. The complacency of PTI is based on the fact that it already enjoys support of 346 members of the National Assembly, Provincial Assembles and Senate. PTI is also backed by MQM(P), GDA, PML(Q) and Baluchistan Qaumi Movement.

The irony of the fate is that the opposition failed in arriving at consensus on the name of the joint candidate. To disassociate PML(N) take refuge behind the allegation that Aitzaz Ahsan in one of his public speech during the election campaign used some derogatory remarks Kulsoom Nawaz, wife of convicted prime minister Nawaz Sharif. PPP seems adamant by not pulling out Aitzaz Ahsan to make Maulana a joint candidateof the opposition. If one peeps into the history, Maulana has enjoyed support of both PPP and PML(N), which kept him Chairman of Kashmir Committee.

The lust for power of Maulana is evident from his recent visit to Karachi and seek support from MQM(P). Both the parties extended their hospitality but very politely expressed their stance; they are already in alliance with PTI.

If one examines the prevailing scenario carefully the PTI confidence is not out of the place. Due to the opposition in complete disarray, soon PTI, allied parties and their vote bank throughout the country will be celebrating victory of presidential election. All the credit will not only go to all the alliance parties for supporting PTI, but historian will also write that opposition offered the position to PTI by not showing its unity.

Moral of the story is that Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman has enjoyed his days and time has come for him to announce retirement from politics and confine himself to religious preaching to develop interfaith harmony, if he can. He accused Pakistan Army for ‘engineered election’ and also made efforts to convince elected members not to take oath.

Pakistan to elect new Prime Minister

Pakistan’s Parliament is scheduled to elect its new leader of the house or prime minister on 5th June. The three proposed names are that of Mian Nawaz Sharif of PML-N, Makhdoom  Amin Fahim of PPP and Makhdoom Javed Hashmi of PTI.

Election of PML-N’s Ayaz Sadiq and Murtaza Javed Abbasi to the posts of speaker and deputy speaker of the assembly respectively has already set the stage and filing of nominations by PPP and PTI members seem a ritual. In fact this may be an exhibition of strengths held by the three leading parties. MQM’s decision to support PML-N has added additional weight to Mian Sahib, who already enjoys simple majority in the house.

Some of the critics say that filing of nominations papers by PPP and PTI is not a good omen because the country needed a consensus leader of the house who enjoys complete support on issues facing the country, worst being stopping drone attacks and overcoming energy crisis.

Many of the political pundits were little confused when MQM decided to sit on opposition benches but extending support to Mian Sahib clearly shows that the party wishes to sail in two boats simultaneously.

It also confirms the conspiracy theory that MQM just can’t afford to sit on opposition benches.

However, extending support to Mian Sahib can pose some serious problems for MQM in Sindh, where PPP is all set to form the government.

Another conspiracy theory is that extending support to Mian Sahib is part of the grand plan to retain the present governor of Sindh in the office. This deal can save Mian Sahib from a possible embarrassment of governor Sindh not ready to receive the elected prime minister at Karachi airport.

While some political pundits say that supporting Mian Sahib does not bode well for MQM, others say that supporting Mian Sahib is the only way to avoid operation against the party.

One can still recall Mian Sahib had said in the past, “If I come into power I will establish military courts in Sindh”. Even at that time it was taken as a potential threat for MQM because such operations were not aimed at rounding up PPP or ANP activists.

Some of the critics say that Mian Sahib has accepted the NP proposed person as Chief Minister of Balochistan just to avoid confrontation. Following the same strategy Mian Sahib may also concede to some of the demands of MQM Just to maintain peace and tranquility in Sindh, the life line of Pakistan.

The history shows MQM enjoys enough power to bring Karachi to grinding halt at the shortest notice. It is clear that if MQM opt for this confrontation with the PML-N, it will also be joined by PPP and ANP to bring the party enjoying the largest mandate under pressure.

It is not only the residents of Karachi but the entire Pakistan that wants peace to be maintained in the city so that economy of the country can be put on track. Keeping the city normal is also a must for ensuring collection of taxes. Karachi continues to contribute nearly 75 per cent of the total tax. Similarly suspension of activities at two ports of Karachi can cause disruption in the movement of import/export consignments.

  DPC opposing opening up Nato routes

Sheikh Rashid Ahmad speaks during All Parties Conference held under Difa-i-Pakistan Council at Lahore Hafiz Muhammad Saeed,  Maulana Samiul Haq, Syed Munawar Hasan and General (R) Hameed Gul also present

The Difa-i-Pakistan Council (DPC) rally that started from Lahore, stayed at Gujrat overnight and finally held a meeting outside parliament building in Pakistan’s federal capital.The meeting was addressed by some of the stalwarts belonging to banned religious outfits, among these the most prominent was Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, Lashkar-e-Teba fame.

The entire proceedings went very well because at no point either the provincial government headed by PML-N or the federal government led by PPP made any attempt to stop the rally. However, attack at an army camp in Gujrat spoiled the entire game. It was certainly not a reward to the government for providing a safe passage to the leaders and the participants of rally.

Lahore is the stronghold of PML-N and Gujrat the home town of Pervez Elahi, Deputy Prime Minister and Ahmed Mukhtar, ex-defence minister and presently heading ministry of water and power. PML-N chose not to participate in APC held earlier but fully compensated. PML-N has often attracted criticism for having deep-rooted relations with some of the banned religious outfits.

The number of people attending Islamabad meeting were quoted from as low as 15,000 to as high as 30,000. Creation of an elaborate stage, assembly of such a large number of demonstrators and appearance of leaders of banned outfits in ‘red zone’ raise a question, what was the federal home ministry and capital police doing?

One of possible explanation could be that the ruling junta to which PML-N is also a part has realized the gravity of situation, extreme anti United States sentiments among Pakistanis and just wanted to avoid any confrontation. The demand for pulling out Pakistan out of US proxy war in Afghanistan is on the rise

It is becoming difficult for the ruling junta as it can’t satisfy the domestic constituency on supporting the US, which is no longer considered a friend. Most of Pakistanis strongly believe that the United States has been playing the most active part in creating Indian Hegemony in the South Asia. An impression is being created that Pakistanis are mercenaries fighting Proxy US War in Afghanistan and India a major trading partner of the United States.