Independents: Game Changers or Spoilers

Pakistanis are still in suspense about which political party will emerge victorious in the latest general elections, leaving uncertainty regarding the next government and prime minister even after four days of intense competition.

Despite facing challenges such as the detention of a former prime minister and obstacles for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), independent candidates supported by the party have surprised observers by securing a substantial number of National Assembly seats, the highest among all parties. However, this falls short of the 169-seat simple majority needed to form a government.

The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), led by another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, secured the second position. Despite expectations of an easy victory, backed by the influential administration, Sharif's return to power remains uncertain, five years after his disgraceful departure from Pakistan.

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, claimed the third spot.

The constitutional deadline for political parties to establish a government is February 29, three weeks after election day. The National Assembly comprises 336 seats, with 266 determined by direct voting and 70 reserved for women (60) and non-Muslims (10), allocated based on each party's strength.

Given the fragmented mandate without a clear majority, political parties must find common ground or consider forming a coalition to govern. Despite both independent candidates and PML-N declaring victory, a coalition government seems inevitable.

Potential scenarios include a coalition between PML-N and PPP, though the choice for the next prime minister poses a challenge. Another possibility is a PPP alliance with Khan’s followers, although the PTI may choose to sit in the opposition rather than forming a coalition, according to Khan's media advisor, Zulfi Bukhari.

A less likely scenario involves PML-N forming a coalition with PTI and other parties, acknowledging that PTI's influence cannot be disregarded. Some voters, even those who did not support Imran Khan earlier, express a sense of injustice in the way the administration has treated him and his party over the past two years.

Another option involves PTI-backed independents merging with smaller parties to create a coalition government, combining their seats and capitalizing on the 60 National Assembly seats reserved for women. However, the PTI's ability to form a coalition government seems improbable, as alliances with smaller parties still fall short of a majority.

For the PTI, reaching out to smaller parties may lack numerical advantages, serving more as a legal requirement than a strategic move to gain substantial support. The uncertainty surrounding the formation of the next government adds complexity to the post-election landscape in Pakistan.