Functioning as a security state, Pakistan has long
formulated its foreign policy choices based on security needs and the
aspiration to establish itself as a hard military power. This approach has
allowed the military to play a leading role in shaping both, domestic and
foreign policy decisions, often overshadowing civilian institutions. However,
with changing global dynamics, the current civil-military establishment
is actively signaling a shift in Pakistan’s strategic culture and
foreign policy interests.
It has been just over a year since General Asim Munir took
command of Pakistan's military; succeeding General (retired) Qamar Javed Bajwa
in late November 2022. Apart from stepping into the most powerful role in
Pakistan, Munir also inherited the legacy of Bajwa’s military doctrine,
which not only shaped Pakistan's foreign policy but also presented considerable
challenges for him to address.
Throughout his tenure, Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift
in Pakistan's traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics
to geoeconomics. This shift involved broadening the scope of Pakistan’s
national security, moving beyond a primary emphasis on military defense, and
recognizing economic security as a crucial factor for achieving improved
traditional security outcomes.
To safeguard economic security, Bajwa aimed to
enhance Pakistan's geostrategic importance by prioritizing regional
connectivity and global development partnerships. He sought to position
Pakistan as a key hub for trade, transit, and production in West, Central, and
South Asia, intending to transition from aid-based dependencies to trade and
investment partnerships.
Bajwa fell short of fully realizing his vision during his
six years in office, with Pakistan continuing to rely heavily on International
Monetary Fund (IMF) loans to support its declining economy. Munir now faces the
challenging task of turning Bajwa’s unrealized vision into a reality. This
requires cultivating positive interdependence and multi-alignment with a
diverse range of partners, while also ensuring domestic stability.
An examination of Munir’s first year in office is crucial to
assess his progress thus far and gain insight into the military’s current
foreign policy vision.
Munir
doctrine
A crucial aspect of Munir’s doctrine involves guiding
Pakistan away from the strategic dilemma of choosing between the United States
and China, and avoiding the significant costs it has incurred for Islamabad’s
foreign policy.
Munir has made clear a preference for pursuing a hedging
strategy, aiming to avoid getting entangled in global binary politics. His
strategic approach is centered on maximizing Pakistan's economic gains to
avoid subservience to major powers and increase its room for maneuver. He
articulated this vision for defending Pakistan's sovereignty by
building a robust economy, emphasizing that, “all Pakistanis must throw out the
beggar’s bowl.”
At least three interrelated points characterize Munir's
foreign policy vision, each representing significant challenges he must
confront. These observations are drawn from his statements and actions up to
this point.
First, he has expressed a commitment to project
and advance a softer image of Pakistan.
Second, he has demonstrated a keen interest in
elevating Pakistan as a regional middle power.
Third, he has placed a significant focus on
prioritizing geo-economics over geopolitics.
Revamping
Pakistan’s image
A state's image and reputation are pivotal in achieving
foreign policy goals. Pakistan's global reputation is currently plagued by a
host of domestic issues, all of which paint a picture of the country as a
struggling democracy grappling with internal turmoil. Recent regime changes,
the constitutional crisis over the next general elections, growing insecurity
and the rise in terrorist attacks, escalating debt, human rights violations,
political instability, socioeconomic disparities, growing inflation, and energy
crises have all taken a toll on Pakistan's standing in the international
community.
The country is increasingly perceived as an elitist
state that struggles to address the genuine concerns of its citizens, moving
closer to a praetorian state. This negative image is partly due to the hybrid
governance model adopted prior to Munir's appointment, disrupting the
balance of power between civilian and military authorities.
Under this system, the military has gained legal authority to
govern key state institutions, but this has eroded its public image, a problem
that has been exacerbated by allegations from popular leader Imran
Khan of undermining democracy.
At present, there are lingering suspicions that
the next general elections, currently scheduled for February 08,
2024, may not take place until Khan is absent from the political landscape.
Despite being imprisoned and facing a ban from politics, Khan maintains
significant popularity compared to his political rivals. As long as his
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party remains a legitimate political entity, it poses
a potential risk of securing a majority in parliament, a scenario the military
establishment is unwilling to tolerate.
For their part, Western nations, including the United States
and European Union, have issued warnings about potential consequences
if the elections are delayed further or conducted unfairly. Adding to
Pakistan's challenges, a group of US members of Congress recently urged
the Biden administration to withhold military aid due to concerns over
human rights abuses.
Dismissing such negative perceptions, Munir has pledged
his commitment to upholding democracy in Pakistan. This underscores a
major aspect of the Munir doctrine, which aims to restore the military's soft
image both at home and abroad while retaining its influence in the country's
governance.
Affirming Munir’s position, Interim Prime Minister
Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar has asserted that the military's involvement in state
governance is solely due to its organizational capabilities and has dismissed
concerns that it might seek to manipulate the upcoming elections.
Pakistan
a regional security actor
Historically, Pakistan has leveraged its advanced military
capabilities as a crucial asset in its foreign relations, a reason why its
defense cooperation takes precedence over economic ties with other countries.
This security-centric foreign policy strategy has played a pivotal role in
sustaining the functionality and institutional capacity of the military, even
during the most testing periods. However, despite entering significant security
and defense agreements, Pakistan has been unable to achieve much-needed
stability and security.
A primary factor contributing to this challenge is the
hostile internal and regional security environment in which Pakistan is
situated. Munir's foreign policy vision reflects this strategic thinking, as
evidenced by his statements and efforts in defense diplomacy.
He has expressed his desire to defend Pakistan
against internal and cross-border terrorism while simultaneously transforming
the country into a stabilizing regional security actor.
In terms of foreign policy initiatives, Munir has carved out
a distinctive path, particularly in relation to India and Afghanistan. Taking a
stern stance toward India, Munir has issued warnings of a swift
proportional response in the event of an attack. He has also accused India
of waging a proxy war against Pakistan through terrorist organizations.
Deviating from the traditional friendly ties between
Pakistan's military and the Afghan Taliban, Munir has chosen to pursue a
more adversarial policy toward the Kabul regime.
Accusing the Afghan government of sheltering anti-Pakistan
terrorists, he has threatened a robust military response if Pakistan’s security
demands are not met.
The ongoing deportation of 1.7 million Afghans
residing in Pakistan is evidence of Munir’s stringent policy against the Afghan
Taliban. In defense of the massive deportations, Munir has contended that
the expulsion of Afghans, whom he alleges to be involved in most terrorist
activities in Pakistan, would enhance the country’s internal security.
Strategic
neutrality
Munir has articulated his aspiration to safeguard Pakistan's
strategic autonomy and territorial integrity, with the objective of maintaining
a neutral middle power status in the global context.
This vision may have taken shape as a response to the
deliberate strategic maneuvers of middle powers, which have astutely
capitalized on the rivalry between the West and Russia, as well as the
competition between the United States and China, to bolster their bargaining
positions, all while avoiding being ensnared in their confrontations.
Achieving genuine neutrality may be a tall order though and
would require, first and foremost, full independence from foreign aid.
Unfortunately, at present Pakistan is highly reliant on
external aid to meet its needs. Bound by geographic, geopolitical, and geo-economic
constraints, Pakistan often finds itself with limited options, at times playing
a subservient role to major global powers.
In the face of fervent appeals from substantial segments of
Pakistani society, calling on the military to lend support to Hamas against
Israel and to diplomatically boycott Western backers of Israel, including the
United States, Munir has opted to abstain from such actions.
In contrast, he seems focused on navigating Pakistan's
response to the demands of both the United States and China without stirring
tensions with either side.
He has sought to enhance Pakistan-US defense ties,
rekindling US interest in the country after a previous inclination to
disengage. A notable case in point is the renewal of the
Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA), a
crucial element of US-Pakistan defense cooperation, through which the US has
extended its offer to assist Pakistan in counterterrorism efforts.
To further solidify ties, Munir visited Washington in
mid-December for discussions with senior US military and Biden administration
officials, seeking to strengthen US-Pakistan military cooperation and foster
investment in Pakistan by urging the US government to explore opportunities
through the newly established Special Investment Facility Council.
As for China, despite reports of Beijing’s
reluctance to add more projects to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
due to performance issues on Pakistan's part, Munir's renewed commitment to
ensuring the security of Chinese interests has injected new life into
previously stagnant CPEC projects.
Pakistan's
economic revival
One of Munir’s major foreign policy objectives is to address
Pakistan's economic challenges through cooperation with friendly nations. His
vision for Pakistan’s economic growth and prosperity emerged when he took on a
diplomatic role in securing funding from the United Arab Emirates and
Saudi Arabia to fulfill IMF preconditions for a crucial bailout package. While
this prevented Pakistan from facing a debt default, it also brought significant
embarrassment due to the harsh conditions attached to the IMF bailout in an
already crisis-ridden country.
Indicating a shift away from geopolitics and toward geo-economics,
Munir has committed to leading Pakistan toward self-reliance by leveraging
its resource advantages.
His vision includes a policy aimed at ending dependency and
promoting self-sufficiency. To expedite these initiatives, a new
“single-window” investment facilitation body, the SIFC, was established
under his leadership in June of this year. Its primary objective is to attract
foreign investments across various sectors, such as mining, agriculture,
information technology, and energy, from affluent Gulf countries, China, and
the United States.
Munir has urged foreign investors to explore Pakistan's
untapped natural resources, estimated to be worth US$6 trillion,
including deposits of copper, gold, sulfur, lead, and zinc, among
others. He has also encouraged local investors to participate in these
endeavors.
In discussions with Pakistan's business community,
Munir outlined his plans for economic recovery. Emphasizing his
commitment to geo-economics, he underscored his efforts to convince Gulf
monarchs to consider investing up to US$100 billion in Pakistan.
Munir's broader approach to economic diplomacy underscores
his vision, favoring development partnerships over development assistance. This
shift also signifies a change in Pakistan's traditional military approach of
providing military bases to now offering economic bases.
Key takeaways
Munir’s geostrategic vision for Pakistan, though it may
sound idealistic, has already scored several successes. To revive the domestic
economy, he has launched a comprehensive crackdown on corruption,
smuggling, energy theft, illegal practices, and unauthorized immigration.
Munir has earned praise for his commitment to
revitalizing Pakistan's economy, presenting himself as the guarantor of
stability in the country and the primary point of contact for the international
community. This underscores his aim of transforming Pakistan into an important
market that can bring together various global economic interests.
On the security front, Munir has escalated military operations
against terrorist outfits like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, declining to
engage in talks for peace.
Furthermore, he has strengthened the military’s defense engagements
by forging military cooperation agreements with countries across the Central, West,
East, and South Asian regions.
Pakistan recently hosted the “Eternal Brotherhood-II” multinational
counterterrorism exercise, reflecting Munir's two-pronged strategy.
Firstly, he aims to capitalize on Pakistan's pivotal role in
combating terrorism originating from Afghanistan, addressing concerns among
both neighboring nations and global powers such as the US, China, and Russia.
Secondly, he seeks to counterbalance India's influence by strengthening
regional military alliances.
At the same time, Munir's foreign policy aspirations entail
significant risk and could have serious consequences for Pakistan.
To begin with, it remains uncertain whether his expanded
role in governance will effectively enhance the military's softer image and
bolster Pakistan's global reputation, especially given that many of its major
challenges are still attributed to the actions of the military establishment.
Additionally, establishing Pakistan as a stabilizing
regional security actor seems to be a daunting task, particularly in the
context of heightened tensions with its immediate neighbor,
Afghanistan.
Achieving a neutral middle power status presents its own set
of difficulties, and this objective may prove elusive until Pakistan gains a
certain level of economic independence.
To date, Pakistan's efforts to attract significant new
investments from the Gulf states have run into difficulties, given the
latter’s predominant focus on the ongoing Gaza crisis.
There is limited evidence to suggest that Gulf nations will
come to Pakistan's aid in the near future. As a result, the SIFC has struggled
to finalize long-awaited billion-dollar foreign transactions. With limited
foreign support available, Pakistan continues to heavily depend on financial
assistance from organizations like the IMF and investments from China.
It seems that the most critical foreign policy challenge
confronting Munir is the integration of soft power with hard power.
This requires finding a delicate balance between security
and economic considerations, necessitating a departure from traditional military
strategies to embrace alternative methods of advancing national interests.
Given the unique strategic culture of the military, which may lack an
understanding of the nuances of civilian affairs and the intricacies of soft
power, expectations for progress from Munir may be limited.
With two more years ahead, the success of Munir's foreign
policy hinges on addressing several crucial questions. How does he plan to
balance fostering economic growth with Pakistan's current economic dependence?
Could Munir's geo-economic strategy unintentionally lead Pakistan into another
debt trap?
To prevent Pakistan from becoming overly reliant on the
exploitation of natural resources and transforming into a rentier state, what
proactive measures does he intend to take?
Additionally, as Pakistan navigates strained relations with
neighboring India and Afghanistan, how will Gen. Munir achieve Pakistan’s
long-term security goals? Moreover, how does he plan to navigate its position
amid the rivalry between the United States and China without taking sides?
Importantly, what specific steps will he take to bridge the gap between
civilian leadership and the military establishment, ensuring a cohesive and
effective foreign policy strategy?
Courtesy: Middle East Institute
