Pakistan-China Joint Naval Exercises

The opening ceremony of the Pakistan Navy and PLA (Navy) bilateral exercise Sea Guardian-2023 was held at the Pakistan Navy Dockyard, Karachi.

Commander Qingdao Naval Base, Rear Admiral Liang Yang graced the occasion as Guest of Honour. Commander Pakistan Fleet, Vice Admiral Muhammad Faisal Abbasi was also present at the occasion.

In his opening remarks, Vice Admiral Muhammad Faisal Abbasi welcomed the officers and personnel of PLA (N) Flotilla, underscoring the close and strategic ties between the two countries in general and Navies in particular.

The admiral emphasized the importance of immaculate and sound planning during the exercise and hoped that this exercise would further enhance strategic cooperation and interoperability between the two navies.

In his speech, Commander Qingdao Naval Base Rear Admiral Liang Yang thanked the Pakistan Navy for hosting Exercise Sea Guardian and hoped to have a mutually beneficial and professionally rewarding experience from the joint exercise.

Earlier, the Chinese Flotilla comprising of naval ships, Submarine and Submarine Rescue Ship along with PLA (Navy) Marines Corps Detachment, arrived in Karachi to participate in the exercise.

During the exercise, frontline destroyers/ frigates along with Air and other assets and Marines/ Special Forces from Pakistan Navy and PLA (Navy) will carry out advanced-level joint drills and naval maneuvers in the North Arabian Sea besides professional and social activities during the harbor phase.

The objective of Exercise Sea Guardian-2023 is to share professional experiences on contemporary traditional and non-traditional threats in the Indian Ocean Region as well as to enhance bilateral cooperation and interoperability between the two Navies.

The exercise is a reflection of strong bilateral military cooperation between the Pakistan Navy and the Chinese Navy and will foster greater bilateral cooperation between the two navies.

 

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange witnesses bullish trend throughout the week

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed persistent bullish run during the week ended on November 10, 2023. The benchmark index closed at 55,391 points, up 4.27%WoW, with daily trading volume averaging at 544.05 million shares, up 20.8%WoW.

The sentiments were driven by an overall positive atmosphere owing to IMF’s review under the SBA, after the completion of technical talks, followed by policy level discussions scheduled to begin on Monday.

Overall, discussions seem to be on a positive trajectory with IMF mostly questioning the fiscal targets and delay regarding gas price revisions. On the macro front, expectations of a reduction in CAD during FY24 to US$4.5 billion, alongside healthy agri output to boost exports are the positive triggers.

Further, crude oil prices continue to slide amidst uncertainty over China’s economic recovery and stability in US reserves, Arab light/ WTI/ Brent being traded at US$84.7/ US$76.7/ US$81.1 per barrel.

On the currency front, US$/PKR slid for the second straight week, ending at 287.03, down 0.95%WoW amidst rising import demand, alongside concerns regarding IMF talks.

Furthermore, PIB auction held during the week saw yields declining, with 3/ 5/ 10 year bond yields slipping to 17.39%/ 15.95%/ 15.10% (down 180/ 100/ 15bps), reinforcing expectations of an end to further monetary tightening.

Other news for the week were: 1) SIFC assessed Sinopec’s interest; 2) US$3 billion projects approved for flood-hit areas; 3) IMF talks uncovered major gaps; 4) Cotton production jumps by 83%; 5) Reko Diq deal with Saudi firm to be signed this year; 6) Nepra allowed Discos PKR0.4/unit tariff hike under FCA for September 23.

Top performing sectors included Chemical and Cement, while Close-end Mutual Fund saw major selling. Flow-wise, major selling was recorded by Insurance with a net sell of US$16.9 million, while Banks/DFI absorbed the selling with a net buy of US$16.3 million.

Top performing scrips were: CNERGY, KOHC, CEPB, FCCL, and KTML, while laggards included HGFA, UNITY, BNWM, EFUG, and ABOT.

Top volume leaders were: CNERGY, PRL, HUMNL, KOSM, and WTL.

Going forward, analysts maintain an optimistic outlook of the market and believe the present rally to continue, albeit with episodes of profit taking. This stance stems from an expected positive conclusion of the IMF’s review amidst improving macro indicators and fading uncertainty over the upcoming elections, even though the country faces tough economic decisions in the near future.

Overall, brokerage houses advise their clients to focus on fundamentals, with exposure in high dividend yielding scrips.

Who will ultimately get control over Gaza?

Israel’s unabated bombardment at Gaza is raising questions over how the coastal enclave would be managed once the fighting is over. This exposes a growing divide between United States and Israeli officials on the issue. 

Several US officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have said Israel should not occupy Gaza and the strip must be run by Palestinians. That has contrasted with Israel’s messaging. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is vowing to hold Gaza for an indefinite period once the dust settles, though he has not clarified what exactly that would mean for Palestinians. 

The post-conflict management of Gaza is also dependent on the outcome of the war and whether Israel fulfills its mission to eradicate Palestinian militant group Hamas — along with how much destruction is inflicted to that end. 

“The military operation itself may go on for a very, very long time, depending upon what form it takes and how successful it is, there are different possibilities,” said Ian Lesser, the vice president of German Marshall Fund US.  

“In the worst case, it could be that Israel is dealing with an ongoing counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operation that is essentially open-ended,” he added. “So it could be a long time until we even see some kind of new phase.” 

Israel held Gaza from 1967 to 2005, when it withdrew following a major Palestinian uprising.  

Hamas has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, but the US-designated terrorist group is now fighting for its survival after it launched a surprise attack on southern Israel October 07 and killed 1,200 people, according to Israel’s revised figures.

Both Israel and the US agree that Hamas cannot be returned to power in Gaza, but the messaging on what happens next is muddied. 

Blinken said there may need to be a transition period at the end of the war, but that it was imperative that the Palestinian people be central to governance in Gaza. 

“We’re very clear on no reoccupation, just as we’re very clear on no displacement of the Palestinian population,” he said at a press event this week. “We need to see and get to, in effect, unity of governance when it comes to Gaza and the West Bank, and ultimately to a Palestinian state.” 

On Friday, Blinken also reiterated that the US is against the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and any efforts to reduce its territory. He also said Gaza must not be used as a terrorist base ever again. 

But Israel is still reeling from the October 07 attacks and officials are pushing to take whatever steps necessary to protect their people, both during and after the war. 

Netanyahu told ABC that he is committed to ensuring Israel cannot suffer the fate of October 07 again, promising a new security reality for the citizens of Israel. 

“For an indefinite period, Israel will have the overall security responsibility because we’ve seen what happens when we don’t have it,” he said. “When we don’t have that security responsibility, what we have is the eruption of Hamas terror on a scale that we couldn’t imagine.” 

While Netanyahu later clarified he does not seek to reoccupy Gaza, he said at a meeting on Friday that Israel would have total security control of the coastal enclave after the war, according to Israeli media. 

It’s unclear what that will look like, whether it would mean an Israeli presence along the border of Gaza or involve control within the territory itself. 

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Wednesday the US was having active discussions with Israel about the issue but declined to speak on Israel’s specific intentions. 

While Israel has resisted a global pressure campaign calling for a ceasefire, it remains susceptible to pressure from the US, its key security partner. Israel agreed to officially implement four-hour humanitarian pauses each day after pressure from the Biden administration. 

Paul Fritz, a professor of political science at Hofstra University who specializes in international conflict, said he views the ongoing dialogue as bargaining between allies with different objectives. 

“There are definitely some significant rifts between the US and Israel, along with other states in the international system, but the sort of quiet diplomacy that’s going on might be bearing some fruit,” he said. 

“Any movement in that way could ultimately be helpful because these are small issues compared to the big political questions that are regarding what to do after the war.”

The war in Gaza is dividing the United States into pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel camps, and any Israeli occupation after the fighting would only widen those divisions. Occupation could also spark more anger against Israel, including among those still supportive of its retaliatory war. 

In the Senate, progressives like Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have not joined calls for a ceasefire, but they have issued statements opposing any potential occupation.  

“Palestinians have a right to determine their own future,” Warren posted on X, formerly Twitter. “Israeli military occupation of Gaza undermines efforts to build two independent states that advance respect for every human being.” 

Rather than occupation, the US has backed the idea of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the Israeli-occupied West Bank, also taking over the Gaza Strip. 

PA Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh told PBS the government is open to governing Gaza only in the event of a comprehensive solution that creates a Palestinian state. 

“We are not going to go to Gaza on an Israeli military tank,” he said. “We are going to go to Gaza as part of a solution that deals with the question of Palestine that deals with occupation.” 

There’s no guarantee that Palestinian people accept the PA as a governing body, given its own issues with corruption, ineffectiveness and being perceived as too passive toward Israel. 

Will Wechsler, the senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, said, it was unrealistic to go back to the PA in the event that Israel defeats Hamas. 

He said they are struggling to do the practical work to govern in areas of the West Bank they currently control. 

Wechsler said the PA can still play an important role in the transition process, which could involve an international peacekeeping force.

“It’s going to be a real challenge and this is the most positive scenario,” Wechsler added. 

The war has also brought a renewed focus on a two-state solution — in which Israel and Palestine would exist in separate countries side-by-side — which many see as the only path toward lasting peace. 

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told Reuters there must be a serious negotiation for a two-state solution with the involvement of the US and other interested parties. 

Blinken said at a press briefing on Friday that the tragedy of October 07 reinforces us in our conviction and our commitment to durable and lasting peace through a two-state solution.

However, Hamas represents a swath of the Palestinian population that rejects the idea of existing peacefully alongside Israel, and even if the militant group is defeated in the war, the ideology will live on in some form. 

The war is already taking a massive death toll, with more than 11,000 Palestinians killed so far, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. That has spurred fears that more Palestinians will be radicalized after the war, continuing the cycle of violence.  

“That’s the real danger,” said Fritz from Hofstra University, for Israel, for the Palestinians that they are going to be driven in this way.”

 

 

 

 

 

Exploring reasons for current situation in Gaza

An Iranian parliament member has condemned Arab countries for their inaction and impotence against the Israeli regime. He went to the extent of saying today’s dire situation in the Gaza strip is the result of their largely pro-Israeli policies. 

Mohammad Sargazi warned that the behavior of Arab states will ultimately lay waste to their own interests. “If the inaction and disunity of Arab countries continue and they fail to stop the crimes of the Zionist regime against the oppressed people of Palestine, they themselves will soon turn into legitimate targets for the military of the United States and Israel,” he added. 

The lawmaker stated that Israel began a massive massacre of Palestinians in Gaza after Arab governments refused to get themselves involved in the affairs of Palestine for years. 

“Arab governments and Islamic countries must come together to stop these crimes and take practical action. The inaction of Arab governments to stop the crimes against the oppressed people of Palestine will have no result other than what we are witnessing today,” he noted.

In recent years, Some Arab countries including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and most recently Saudi Arabia, have moved towards recognizing the Israeli regime as the acting government of Palestine while disregarding Palestinians’ call for support. 

Since Israel began its latest onslaughts against Palestinians, certain Arab states in the region have merely released statements condemning the regime for its actions. 

The Cairo Peace Summit that was held in Egypt last month failed to bear any concrete results. Some videos circulating online have shown aid trucks sent to 
Gaza by some Arab countries filled with shrouds and expired antibiotics, which are unlikely to be of significant help as more than 2.3 million people in the territory are being deprived of food, water, and fuel. 

Several Palestinian activists have also taken to social media in recent weeks, complaining that they have long been abandoned by the majority of the Arab world. 

 

Israel agrees to four hour pauses to let people flee Gaza

Israel has agreed to pause operations in northern Gaza for four hours a day from Thursday, the White House said, in the first sign of a respite in more than a month of fighting that has left thousands dead and stoked fears of a regional conflict.

The pauses would allow people to flee along two humanitarian corridors and were significant first steps, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said.

"We've been told by the Israelis that there will be no military operations in these areas over the duration of the pause, and that this process is starting today," Kirby said.

The pauses, which would be announced three hours in advance, emerged out of discussions between United States and Israeli officials in recent days, including talks US President Joe Biden had with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Kirby added.

Earlier, Israeli forces fought Hamas militants among ruined buildings in the north of the Gaza Strip, inching their way closer to two big hospitals as the plight of civilians in the besieged Palestinian territory worsened.

Thousands more Palestinians were fleeing from the embattled north to the south along a perilous frontline path littered with bodies after Israel told them to evacuate, people on the route said.

But many are staying in the north, packed into the Al Shifa Hospital and al-Quds Hospital as ground battles rage around them and more Israeli air strikes rain down from above.

Israel says its Hamas foes have command centres embedded in the hospitals.

In Doha, the heads of the CIA and Israel's Mossad intelligence agency met with the prime minister of Qatar to discuss a possible deal over hostages, a US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Qatar has served as a mediator with Hamas in the past.

In Paris, officials from about 80 countries and organizations were meeting to coordinate humanitarian aid to Gaza and find ways to help wounded civilians escape the siege, now in its second month.

"Without a ceasefire, lifting of siege and indiscriminate bombarding and warfare, the haemorrhage of human lives will continue," Jan Egeland, Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council, said before the White House announcement.

Israel and its main backer the United States say a full ceasefire would benefit Hamas.

Israel unleashed its assault on Gaza in response to a cross-border Hamas raid on southern Israel on October 07 in which gunmen killed 1,400 people, mostly civilians, and took about 240 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

It was the single worst day of bloodshed in Israel's 75-year history and drew international condemnation of Hamas and sympathy and support for Israel.

But Israel's retaliation in the Hamas-ruled enclave has caused great concern as a humanitarian catastrophe has unfolded.

Palestinian officials said 10,812 Gaza residents had been killed as of Thursday, about 40% of them children, in air and artillery strikes while basic supplies are running out and areas laid waste by unrelenting Israeli bombardments.

Residents in Gaza City, a Hamas stronghold, said Israeli tanks were stationed around the area. Both sides reported inflicting heavy casualties on one another in intense street battles.

Israel, which has vowed to wipe out Hamas, says 33 of its soldiers have been killed in its ground operation as they advanced into the heart of Gaza City.

Thousands of Palestinians have sought refuge at Al Shifa hospital inside Gaza City despite Israel's orders to evacuate the area it has encircled. They are sheltering in tents in the hospital grounds and say they have nowhere else to go.

The UN humanitarian office OCHA said Israeli had again told residents of the north to move south, and that shelling around the main road continued, endangering evacuees.

"We saw decomposed bodies, people from civilian cars, civilians like us, not military cars or resistance men," Khaled Abu Issa said after crossing into the south with his family at Wadi Gaza.

Another resident, who asked not to be named, said he had crossed with his wife and six children.

"You have to hold your ID card in your hand and raise it as you go past the Israeli tanks and then walk several more kilometres searching for a lift," he said.

Southern areas have also come under regular attack. In Khan Younis, Gaza's main southern city, residents picked through the rubble and debris of a building destroyed by an Israeli air strike, hoping to find survivors, on Thursday morning, witnesses said.

Tensions have also soared on other faultlines. Lebanese Islamist group Hezbollah said it fired missiles over the border into Israel, and Israel's military said it responded with artillery fire.

Ten Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces in a raid on Jenin city and refugee camp in the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian health ministry said. Israel's military said it was conducting counter-terrorism raids.

An unidentified drone hit a civilian building in the southern Israeli port city of Eilat, the Israeli military said, causing only light damage.

 

Save Lives - Ceasefire Now

The October 07 Hamas attacks and Israel's subsequent ground invasion of Gaza threaten to plunge an already volatile Middle East into a new era of never ending conflict.

This violence isn’t going to bring safety or liberation to anyone ‑ it’ll only breed more fear, hatred, and trauma. That’s why we continue to call for a ceasefire.

A ceasefire can save lives in Gaza by stopping the bombing and allowing opportunities for critically needed humanitarian relief. It can help ensure hostages can be reunited with their loved ones.

When we demand that the US government agitate for one, it is us saying that everyday people in Gaza deserve dignity ‑ and their horrific treatment has no justification or excuse.

A ceasefire can provide safety for people in Israel. Violence begets violence. Every moment this conflict continues puts people in Israel in danger.

A ceasefire can make a massive and immediate positive difference in people’s lives. And that’s why we need every member of Congress speaking out in support of this simple demand now.

This is the moment to keep pushing to both protect people across Israel and Palestine, while preventing a catastrophic regional war from breaking out.

We need more voices to join the call - and that’s where you come in. 

Support a simple demand, Save Lives, Ceasefire Now.

 

Israel paying colossal cost of attacks on Gaza

The al-Aqsa Storm Operation carried out by Hamas on October 07 have seen Israeli companies in tatters as settlers face a situation, never seen before, amid lack of government financial guidelines for them. 

More than one month war in Gaza is having devastating effects on Israeli business activity, with hundreds of companies on the verge of bankruptcy. 

The Israeli labor ministry says that around 765,000 Israelis or 18% of total workforce - are not working after being called up for reserve duty to fight the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip. 

According to the Financial Times, evidence is already mounting of the war’s destructive impact on the regime's economic activity. 

Last week, financial measures unveiled by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his finance minister Bezalel Smotrich drew condemnation from business groups.

In an attempt to ease rising economic anxiety, the Israeli war cabinet announced new provisions. Yet, a group of 300 leading Israeli economists called on Netanyahu and Smotrich to "come to your senses". 

"The grave blow that Israel was dealt requires a fundamental change in national priorities and a massive rechanneling of funds to deal with war damage, aid to victims and the rehabilitation of the economy," they said in an open letter.

The Financial Times cites Eugene Kandel, chair of Start-Up Nation Policy Institute, a think-tank, and one of the signatories of the economists’ letter, as saying that the Israeli government has still not shown it has understood the gravity of the situation.

Economic experts inside the occupied territories have expressed grave concern that Netanyahu's promised financial packages for companies at high risk of sinking into bankruptcy will not be enough should the regime's economic prospects continue to worsen.

Netanyahu’s coalition partners from ultra-Orthodox and settler parties are continuing to direct vast sums to projects that critics say have no place in a war economy, such as a scheme to encourage religious observance among students.

According to Foreign Policy magazine, Israel’s wartime economy can’t hold up forever and may be heading toward a recession very soon, with the regime’s massive military mobilization near Gaza leading to serious economic strain.

At the top of the list of sectors that will bear the brunt of a long war on the Gaza Strip include oil and gas, tourism, health care, retail and technology among others. 

The Israeli economy is estimated to have reportedly entered the war with US$200 billion in reserves and US$14 billion in military aid from the United States. Yet experts say the ongoing war on Gaza will cost the Israeli economy billions more and take much longer to recover than it has in the past.

Essentially, the war on Gaza is widely expected to take a heavy toll on the regime's economy in the short and long term, according to economists and analysts.

Global credit rating agencies such as Fitch Ratings, S&P as well as Moody’s Investors Services have warned that a further escalation of the war will result in a downgrade of the regime's sovereign debt rating. 

S&P has already lowered the Israeli credit outlook to negative, citing the risks of the war on Gaza broadening, with a more pronounced effect on the economy. The rating agency pointed out that the negative outlook reflects the risk that the … war could spread more widely or affect Israel’s credit metrics more negatively than we expect.
One economist told Foreign Policy that the cost of two previous wars - the Israeli war on Lebanon in the summer of 2006 and against the Gaza Strip in 2014 - cost up to 0.5% of the GDP and mainly impacted the tourism sector. But this time, estimations are set for a fall of up to 15% in annual terms in the last quarter of this year.

A long list of airlines has stopped flying to the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories. The flight cancelations will further damage the Israeli economy, first and foremost, the tourism industry that the regime heavily relies on.

It has also proven a challenge for the hundreds of thousands of anxious Israelis seeking to leave the occupied lands amid the war and daily rocket salvoes being fired by the Palestinian resistance forces from the besieged Gaza Strip. 

Rocket barrages that appear to have no end in sight.  Over the 30 days since the Hamas operation, hundreds of thousands of Israelis have been displaced or fled from settlements near the Gaza Strip and all the indications are that they will not be returning. 

According to the Israeli Ministry of Tourism, hotel rooms are almost fully occupied, not by foreign tourists, but instead by Israeli settlers seeking shelter and making plans to leave the occupied Palestinian territories. Many had already left by sea, with at least one American ship evacuating Israelis from the port of Haifa. 

More are planning to depart, with online campaigns beginning to pop up that highlight how Israelis are all intending to leave the settlements near Gaza and other areas forever.

Since Netanyahu took power in early January this year, brain drain has been common among Israelis who were already furious with their new government. 
Now, with incoming missiles on a daily basis and increasing anger at Netanyahu and his cabinet ministers, the emigration of highly trained or qualified Israelis has risen even further.  

As the regime faces one of its most difficult times, one settler told Israeli media, "We fled to Cyprus right after the first siren Saturday. We’re a family of parents and four children. My gut told me that this wasn’t just another round, and my nerves had been frayed for 10 months from this country that had gone crazy on us. We bought tickets at 10 in the morning, and by 5, we were in Paphos. Now we’re here trying to calm down."

As the war on Gaza drags on, a lot of Israelis, along with their families, from all over the occupied Palestinian territories, have either already traveled abroad or voiced their intent to do so. 

Their main concern is that they have no safety anymore as the largest war against the Gaza Strip in modern history risks spilling over and broadening. They fear for their lives.