What if Iran closes Strait of Hormuz?

The Israel-Hamas war has raised the concerns of a wider regional conflict which could embroil Iran and other regional factions. Analysts and market observers say the conflict could prompt the United States to tighten sanctions on Iran, which may spur Tehran to take retaliatory action against ships in the Strait in Hormuz.

The Marshall Islands registry, one of the world's top shipping flags, last week flagged that vessels with links to Israel or the United States may face a heightened threat of attack within Israeli territorial waters, the Mideast Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and Red Sea areas.

The strait lies between Oman and Iran. It links the Gulf north of it with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond. It is 21 miles (33 km) wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping lane just two miles (three km) wide in either direction.

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have sought to find other routes to bypass the Strait, including building more oil pipelines.

About a fifth of the volume of the world's total oil consumption passes through the Strait on a daily basis. An average of 20.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, condensate and oil products passed through Hormuz in January-September 2023, data from analytics firm Vortexa showed.

OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the Strait.

Qatar, the world's biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, sends almost all of its LNG through the Strait.

 

 

 

Threat of second Nakba looms larger

The past two weeks show how easily the western world turns its back on Palestinians in times of crisis. While the West has shown solidarity with the Israeli victims, it has remained appallingly silent over – and even encouraged – the crimes being committed against Palestinians in Gaza.

The world is seeing western racism in all its cruelty, as Palestinian lives are deemed inherently less valuable. The worst horror is the silence and complicity of the West in Israel’s unspeakable massacres.

All Palestinians feel they are being held responsible and paying the price for Israel’s failure to maintain security along the Gaza fence. From 1948 communities to Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank are being targeted on the basis of their identity.

All they hear are western countries giving their full support to Israel, which is using this cover to commit crimes, arrest people and violate the human rights of Palestinians anywhere in the country.

Palestinians do not feel they are safe. Tensions hang heavy, even just in the way people look at each other.

When one walks the streets of Jerusalem streets are empty, but police and private security forces are there. 

Increasing numbers of civilians have been carrying guns in the streets, and even in shopping malls, where some Israelis were armed with M16s. This comes after National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir decided to hand out thousands of guns and to ease the conditions for purchasing weapons.

Many from occupied East Jerusalem no longer go to work. Some have been beaten. The army can stop anyone and check mobile phone; if they find a song about Palestine or a post about Gaza, they can confiscate the device, beat and arrest the person.

It feels as though people are living in a military base. In several locations, cement blocks have been placed at the exits of Palestinian neighbourhoods. 

Armed groups of settlers and private militia forces can stop anyone on the streets if the person looks Palestinian.

People don’t feel safe speaking their own language anymore. Palestinian friends in the streets will speak Hebrew or English; they don’t dare to speak Arabic in public. Many people have been fired or suspended from their jobs just for showing solidarity with Gaza.

There are two million Palestinian citizens of Israel. On Tuesday, Israel’s police chief, Kobi Shabtai said, “Anyone who wants to identify with Gaza is welcome – I’ll put them on buses that will send them there.”

People are terrified they could be physically attacked at any time. Extremist Israelis are urging others to kill their Arab neighbours, including women, children and babies. People have found their photos and other details posted on social media groups that have been established to target Palestinians. It is a collective call for revenge.

The speed at which this fascism has spread through the country is stunning. People have always believed there is a common space where Israelis and Palestinians can come together and work towards peace. But the transformation in recent days has been overwhelming. People who once described themselves as Israeli leftists are now calling to wipe out Gaza.

It feels as though the whole state is now baying for genocide. This is the type of language one hear from politicians, celebrities, academics and ordinary people.

Many feel that Israel is working towards a second Nakba – and the world is doing nothing to stop it. Israelis are crossing red lines and using the current situation to promote apartheid, ethnic cleansing and a second Nakba.

Across the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, at least 69 Palestinians have been killed in the past 13 days. Palestinians are being attacked by settlers; the police and army do nothing to protect them. Instead, Palestinians face mass arrests if they dare to show support for Gaza.

In Gaza, more than 4,000 people have been killed in Israel’s bombardment – including more than 1,500 children – while thousands more have been injured. Gaza City has been destroyed. People are struggling to meet their basic needs: water, electricity and medical care. Pregnant mothers are in crisis. Children are being left in hospitals with no one to pick them up, because their parents have been killed.

 

Israel allows 20 aid trucks, drops 12,000 bombs

After two weeks of relentless bombing, Israel temporarily opened the Rafah border crossing, the only port connecting Gaza to Egypt which is coordinating international life-saving humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza. 

Israel had bombarded the crossing in the early hours of its shelling campaign against the Gaza Strip, shutting down operations at the egress for travel and trade.

Since October 07, Israel stubbornly rejected all calls for reopening the Rafah crossing, while deliberately creating a humanitarian crisis by cutting off the flow of water, fuel, food, and electricity into the besieged enclave. 

To make things even worse, Israel began intently bombing hospitals, schools, mosques, churches, and other civilian properties which served as a shelter for civilians fleeing heavy bombardment.

On October 17, Israel committed a heinous crime that shocked the world by bombing a Christian hospital – Al Ahli- which resulted in the killing of hundreds of civilians, mostly injured and patients.

The magnitude of the crime was so abhorrent that the Israeli authorities quickly walked back their statements confirming their bombardment of the hospital and ultimately blamed the targeting of the hospital on a Palestinian resistance group misfired rocket. 

Even worse, the Biden administration appeared to be rubber stamping the Israeli narrative, saying that the war crime was committed by the other team.

President Biden had visited Israel in a bid to show solidarity with the Israeli leadership, which is suffering from a historic lack of self-confidence as a result of the October 07 attack by the Palestinian resistance groups on Israeli targets. 

In order to vent their anger, the Israeli authorities intensified their brutal campaign against the civilians in Gaza, producing damning evidence of committing war crimes against the Palestinian people, according to Amnesty International. 

“As Israeli forces continue to intensify their cataclysmic assault on the occupied Gaza Strip, Amnesty International has documented unlawful Israeli attacks, including indiscriminate attacks, which caused mass civilian casualties and must be investigated as war crimes,” the human rights organization said in a statement on Friday. 

“In their stated intent to use all means to destroy Hamas, Israeli forces have shown a shocking disregard for civilian lives. They have pulverized street after street of residential buildings killing civilians on a mass scale and destroying essential infrastructure, while new restrictions mean Gaza is fast running out of water, medicine, fuel and electricity. Testimonies from eyewitness and survivors highlighted, again and again, how Israeli attacks decimated Palestinian families, causing such destruction that surviving relatives have little but rubble to remember their loved ones by,” said Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General.

 Callamard said, “Our research points to damning evidence of war crimes in Israel’s bombing campaign that must be urgently investigated. Decades of impunity and injustice and the unprecedented level of death and destruction of the current offensive will only result in further violence and instability in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories.” 

These crimes were the result of Israel dropping thousands of bombs on the Gaza Strip in a matter of two weeks. The Israeli military has said just in the first six days of their aggression, Israel dropped 6,000 bombs on Gaza. Estimates put that number at more than 8,000 now, which is more than the bombs the US dropped on Afghanistan in a year, according to US Congresswomen Ilhan Omar. 

The Washington Post, citing Marc Garlasco, a military adviser at the Dutch organization PAX for Peace, reported that Israel is dropping in less than a week what the US was dropping in Afghanistan in a year, in a much smaller, much more densely populated area, where mistakes are going to be magnified.”

Garlasco, who is also a former UN war crimes investigator in Libya, told the daily, citing records from the US Air Force Central Command, that the highest number of bombs dropped in a year for the war in Afghanistan was just over 7,423.

According to the UN, during the entire war in Libya, NATO reported dropping more than 7,600 bombs and missiles from aircraft, the daily reported, according to Anadolu Agency. 

Despite Israeli continued atrocities, humanitarian aid started flowing into Gaza Saturday in very small quantities, with some describing it as a drop in an ocean of human suffering. 

 

Afghans need immediate help

Families in western Afghanistan, who have lost everything to a series of devastating earthquakes, need urgent assistance to withstand the harsh winter. Temperature has already dropped into single digit.

With about two-thirds of the affected areas assessed, more than 21,500 homes are confirmed destroyed and a further 17,000 severely damaged, according to the UN humanitarian affairs coordination office (OCHA). Over 154,000 people have been impacted.

The number includes about 7,500 pregnant women, many of whom lost family members. The death of their loved ones has taken a devastating toll, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) said.

The agency has deployed psychosocial counselors to help them cope with overwhelming loss.

“They need someone to listen to them and help them cope with their trauma,” said counselor Faiza Zarie, adding that the availability of psychosocial support is critical.

Women also face other challenges — heightened risks of preventable maternal death, gender-based violence and hunger.

UNFPA is working to address reproductive health needs. It issued a funding appeal for US$11.6 million to continue delivering life-saving sexual and reproductive health supplies and services.

Access to medical care has also been severely affected, with at least 40 facilities reported damaged, a region that was already largely deprived of essential health services before the disaster.

The World Health Organization (WHO) warns that services for about 580,000 people have been severely disrupted.

“Health workers are also affected by the disaster — either from loss of family members or from fear of collapsing health facilities, which makes it even harder for them to provide the health care their communities need,” Alaa AbouZeid, WHO team leader emergencies in Afghanistan, told reporters in Geneva, from Kabul.

“The health consequences are staggering,” she added

The UN agency has been one of the first responders on the ground, supporting hospitals with medicines and supplies and organizing mobile health and nutrition teams.

Sustaining health services will require extra resources, and WHO and partners have launched an appeal for US$7.9 million to provide support for the next six months.

Iranian navy to permanently deploy forces to oceans

Iran's Navy Chief Rear Admiral Shahram Irani has rolled out Tehran’s ambitious plans for the future, saying the West Asian country is planning to maintain presence in oceans across the world. 

“Coordination is underway and equipment is being prepared so that we can simultaneously be present in all oceans; because there are economic interests of the people there,” Irani said during a military ceremony in the coastal province of Mazandaran on Friday.

“If any mischief occurs, the Islamic Republic of Iran has enough capability to defend itself. Also, regional countries and people do not allow foreigners and non-regional actors to interfere and engage in mischief,” the commander said, adding that the Caspian Sea will remain a sea of peace and friendship. 

“All countries and people in the region will join hands to witness economic growth in the region,” the admiral pointed out.

Last month, the commander announced that Iran will be setting up a permanent military base in Antarctica. “We have ownership in Antarctica and the plan is to hoist the Iranian flag there and establish a permanent base,” he declared during an interview.

Iran’s naval forces have been able to make headways and achieve several unprecedented accomplishments in recent years. 

In May of this year, the Iranian Navy’s 86th flotilla managed to complete an eight-month mission that involved sailing around the world. The flotilla, which consisted of the Dena destroyer and Makran forward base ship, sailed across the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans without needing assistance from land. It traveled 63,000 kilometers and crossed the Equator four times. The mission was part of Iran's efforts to expand its naval presence in the high seas, showcasing its capability and commitment to defending its economic interests. It also happened despite years of debilitating sanctions by the West.

 

Hamas attack aimed at disrupting Saudi-Israel normalization, says Biden

Palestinian Islamist group Hamas' October 07 attack on Israel that killed about 1,400 people was aimed at disrupting a potential normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia sought by Riyadh, said US President Joe Biden on Friday.

Biden suggested Saudi wanted to recognize Israel in the comments he made at a campaign fundraiser.

Saudi Arabia, a Middle East powerhouse and home to Islam's two holiest shrines, gave its blessing to Gulf neighbors United Arab Emirates and Bahrain establishing relations with Israel in 2020 under the previous US administration of Donald Trump. Riyadh has not followed suit, saying Palestinian statehood goals should be addressed first.

"One of the reasons Hamas moved on Israel ... they knew that I was about to sit down with the Saudis," Biden said.

"Guess what? The Saudis wanted to recognize Israel."

The potential normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab states was a top priority for Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his June trip to Riyadh, although he acknowledged no progress should be expected imminently.

Blinken told CNN on October 08 that it wouldn’t be a surprise that part of the motivation (for the attack) may have been to disrupt efforts to bring Saudi Arabia and Israel together."

Biden told CBS' 60 Minutes in an interview that was aired last Sunday that the prospect of normalization was still alive; it's going to take time.

Israel responded to the October 07 attack by pounding Gaza with air strikes, killing more than 4,000 people, and has said it will act to free hostages taken by Hamas militants while wiping out the group.

 

US ultimatum to Prime Minister of Bangladesh

According to a report by The Bangladesh Chronicle, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary Afreen Akhter is believed to have conveyed the US government’s message to the Awami League regime; constitutional expert Shahdeen Malik says Hasina will defy such a move

The ruling Awami League government has been told in no uncertain terms by a senior United States official, who recently visited Dhaka, that the Sheikh Hasina regime may consider stepping down from power and hand over charge to the Jatiya Sangshad speaker by November 03, 2023.

Given the high stakes that are involved, it is unlikely that the Awami League in general and Sheikh Hasina in particular will readily comply with the US pressure to relinquish power, especially at a time when there is massive anti-incumbency besides grave charges of corruption, human rights abuses, malgovernance, among other issues, against the current regime.

It is believed that the message was conveyed to senior Bangladeshi officials by American Deputy Assistant Secretary (South Asia and Central Asia) Afreen Akhter during her meeting with Bangladesh foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen on October 16, 2023.

Besides raising the fraught issue of free, fair and participatory elections in Bangladesh, Akhter also discussed with the subjects of Rohingya refugees and the recent visit of a bipartisan American delegation comprising members of two important American think tanks with Momen, who confirmed this to reporters later the same day. Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs director general Masud Alam was present during the meeting between Akhter and Momen.

The Bangladesh foreign secretary had reacted sharply, saying, “Bangladesh objects to unnecessary foreign interference in its internal affairs”.

The sources said that Akhter placed two options before her Bangladeshi hosts, eight days before Sheikh Hasina is set to leave for Brussels on an official tour. As part of the first option, Sheikh Hasina government could resign and hand over charge to President Mohammad Shahabuddin who, incidentally left for Singapore on October 16 and is not expected to return to the country before October 30.

The last session of the Jatiya Sangshad is set to begin on October 22 and the government of the day will likely declare the official election notification in the last week of this month or the first week of November.

The second option, the US official presented before Momen and Masud, recommended transfer of power by the incumbent Awami League government to Speaker Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury by November 03 before paving the way for a truly free, fair, participatory and inclusive elections.

“The US prefers that the Sheikh Hasina regime opts for the second course,” a source, fully aware of the details of the American proposals, said.

Chaudhury was in New Delhi last week to take part in the Ninth G20 Parliamentary Speakers’ Summit. She had met Indian officials on the sidelines of the Summit.

The bases of the two options presented before the Bangladeshi leadership was that both were within the framework of the Constitution and therefore could be acted upon and considered by the government.

Chapter II of Part IV of the Bangladeshi constitution says:

“(1) The office of the Prime Minister shall become vacant
(a) if he resigns from office at any time by placing his resignation in the hands of the President; or (b) if he ceases to be a member of Parliament.
(2) If the Prime Minister ceases to retain the support of a majority of the members of Parliament, he shall either resign his office or advise the President in writing to dissolve Parliament, and if he so advises the President shall, if he is satisfied that no other member of Parliament commands the support of the majority of the members of Parliament, dissolve Parliament accordingly”.

Also, Article 54 of the constitution says, “If a vacancy occurs in the office of President or if the President is unable to discharge the functions of his office on account of his absence, illness or any other cause, the Speaker shall discharge those functions until a President is elected or until the President assumes the functions of his office, as the case may be”.

Importantly, it was indicated by the US deputy assistant secretary that failure to comply with the two options – but preferably the second – would be followed by a series of strong economic sanctions against Bangladeshi individuals, including influential businessmen and political leaders.

In the event of the ruling Awami League chosing to disregard the US ultimatum, as one source described the two options, the American authorities are said to have told their interlocutors in Dhaka that due processes of law would follow against a high value Bangladeshi individual residing in that country.

Speaking to Northeast News, one of Bangladesh’s foremost constitutional experts, Shahdeen Malik, said that in the event of a situation, political or otherwise, the prime minister will have to advise the president to dissolve parliament till the time fresh elections are held. The president, in turn, will ask the cabinet to continue. And, in the event the president is indisposed, for whatever reasons, the speaker will fulfill his duties and responsibilities.

Agreeing that there are lots of faults with the 15th amendment to the constitution, Malik said that it will be politically suicidal for her if she gives in to demands to quit.

Malik concluded that Sheikh Hasina will defy such moves and that he apprehends the regime will turn repressive.