Wednesday, 15 March 2023

High Sulphur fuel oil still accounts for 26% of global bunker sales

Despite more than three years on from the IMO 2020 regulation coming into force, high Sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) still accounts for over a quarter of global bunker sales as owners reap the benefits of scrubbers.

With the IMO 2020 regulation restricting bunker fuel to 0.5% Sulphur content from January 01, 2020 market observers had been expecting HSFO to become marginalized and potentially difficult to purchase in many ports.

However, scrubbers have proved to be an economical option with owners benefiting from high price spreads between HSFO and very low Sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and marine gas oil (MGO).

A presentation by Minerva Bunkering CEO, Tyler Baron at the Fujairah Bunkering and Fuel Oil Forum (Fujcon 2023) showed that in 2022 HSFO accounted for 26% of the 230 million metric ton global marine fuel market in 2022. The largest share of the market was taken by VLSFO with 62%, while the MGO sales accounted for 11%, and other fuels 1%.

Looking at top bunkering locations, 28% of bunker sales in Singapore were HSFO, some 31% in Amsterdam – Rotterdam – Antwerp (ARA), and 35% in the US Gulf Coast.

Scrubbers allowing the continued use of HSFO have proved popular with owners of larger tonnage according to DNV as of 2023 there are 5,006 vessels fitted with exhaust gas cleaning system, or due to be this year.

Higher oil prices since the Russian invasion of Ukraine have driven price spreads between high and very low Sulphur fuel oil giving significant savings to scrubber-fitted vessel burning HFSO.

At present the price difference in Singapore is US$142 per ton, VLSFO priced at US$558.50 per ton and IFO380 at US$446.50 per ton, according to Ship & Bunker.

In Rotterdam the price spread is US$148 per ton, and Houston there is a US$190.50 per ton difference.

As the first scrubbers designed with carbon capture and storage (CCS) capability starting to be fitted the HFSO could remain in demand for many years to come.

 

Tuesday, 14 March 2023

Russia’s downing of US drone sparks fears

Russia’s apparent attack of a US drone in international airspace on Tuesday quickly sparked concerns, spurring anxiety in Washington and drumming up fear across the nation of a wider escalation between the two countries.

The Biden administration and lawmakers have blasted Russia for what they called an unprofessional and unsafe maneuver in which two Russian jets damaged a US MQ-9, forcing it to crash land in the Black Sea Tuesday.

Top American defense officials and experts quickly pointed out the unusual nature of the incident.

“This is extremely unusual, I’m not aware of an incident like this that’s occurred over the last year of conflict over there,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told The Hill.

Intercepts between US and Russian aircraft are not uncommon, with several cases happening near Alaskan airspace so far this year. But the drone incident is uncommon and unfortunate and unsafe, Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters at the Pentagon.

While it’s unclear if this was a case of a rogue pilot or not, the US European Command called the Russian actions dangerous, noting that they could lead to miscalculation and unintended escalation.

US aircraft have operated over the Black Sea since before Russia invaded Ukraine, using the highly advanced MQ-9 spy drone to keep eyes on the region. But Tuesday’s incident marks the first publicly known case of a Russian warplane purposely damaging a US aircraft amid the conflict.  

Administration officials said the MQ-9 was flying over the Black Sea on a routine flight before it was flanked by two Russian jets. 

The jets flew alongside the drone for 30 to 40 minutes before one of the jets flew in front of it and dumped fuel. One of the Kremlin jets then struck the drone’s propeller, forcing it to crash into the Black Sea.

While there have been a number of close-call incidents with Russian aircraft in the past, what makes this case unique is it involves an uncrewed US aircraft, a detail that could keep tensions from blowing up, according to Becca Wasser, a senior fellow with the Center for a New American Security.  

“The incident is deeply concerning given the context in which it takes place, but the fact that it was an uncrewed platform is likely to reduce the chances of it boiling over,” she told The Hill.

Wasser pointed to a similar incident in 2019 when Iran shot down an RQ-4 Global Hawk, which did not result in a direct US military response.

Stephen Twitty, a retired lieutenant general and former deputy commander of US European Command who is now a distinguished fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said the incident can be resolved and it was important that Washington not escalate tensions any further.

“What we cannot do is jump with hotheadedness to take both of our countries into conflict,” Twitty said. “We cannot let the Russians provoke us into doing something irrational. 

“This is about more than about the United States — this is about us and 29 other countries,” he continued, and “we need to conduct ourselves in a manner that does not take NATO or the United States to war.”

Russian officials seem to have rebuffed efforts from US officials to communicate about the incident.

At the Pentagon, Ryder said that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has not yet spoken to his Russian counterpart.

The US military in March 2022 created a channel known as the de-confliction line to communicate directly with the Russian military to prevent miscalculations and escalation over the war in Ukraine.

But some calls have gone unanswered on Moscow’s side at critical times.

In November, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley attempted to speak with his Russian counterpart following a missile-caused explosion in NATO ally Poland but was unable to get through.

Neither Austin nor Milley have spoken with their Russian counterparts since October.

When asked about Tuesday’s drone incident at a press event, Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger said his biggest worry was a collision in the early morning hours and the potential roadblocks of trying to communicate about it to de-escalate.

Still, the State Department intends to reach out to Russian officials, according to National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Tuesday.

Russian ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov was summoned to the State Department, where he met with officials to discuss the incident.  

US officials are now likely weighing the circumstances over Russia’s actions as they contemplate their response, with questions over where the drone was, how it interacted with the Russian jets and how it was brought down.

Other considerations include whether there was any warning or communication before the Russians reacted as this can help inform the US reaction.

“I don’t know the details [of the Russian interception and drone downing], whether the drone was near something sensitive to them,” said former US Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, now a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council.

Fried said he views the incident as part of the ongoing sour relationship the US has had with the Kremlin since during the Cold War, made anew when Russia invaded Ukraine.

But while on the rougher end of the harassment scale, he views the drone attack as saber rattling.

The drone attack prompted fury in Congress on Tuesday. Sen. Jack Reed, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, blasted Russia as reckless and inept.

“There is no other way to describe Russia’s behavior in this collision with a US drone over [international] waters,” Reed tweeted. “This pattern of Russian provocation must end.”

Reed, who praised the professional manner of the US military response, told reporters on Tuesday they will have to investigate how the disturbing incident unfolded and determine the sequence of events and how deliberate of a provocation it was.

Rep. Mike Rogers, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, tweeted the incident was further proof that the threat Russia poses towards the US and NATO has not receded.

“Putin and his cronies are attempting to test our resolve – a test that we cannot afford to fail,” Rogers wrote.

Speaking on the Senate floor, Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer called the attack brazen and dangerous.

“I want to tell Mr. Putin, stop this behavior before you are the cause of an unintended escalation,” Schumer said. “We have seen this behavior from the Russian military before, and it will not deter the United States from conducting operations over the Black Sea.”

 

Sri Lanka: China offers to fully finance Hambantota refinery

According to Colombo Gazette, Chinese Sinopec has offered to fully finance the construction of a refinery in Hambantota, Sri Lanka.

During a discussion with representatives of the Sinopec Group held at the Presidential Secretariat, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said that the Government has taken a principled decision to expand the distribution of fuel which is expected to commence shortly.

The representatives from the Sinopec Group confirmed their readiness to invest in the import, storage, distribution, and marketing of fuel to cater to Sri Lanka’s energy requirements.

The representatives informed the Sri Lankan Government that their organization has adhered to the existing system and has applied accordingly. They further conveyed their readiness to fully finance the construction of a refinery in Hambantota, which has been identified as a central energy hub by the Government.

Moreover, the representatives stated that their company is prepared to respond to future solicitations that align with the aspirations of the country.

They also presented their proposal to the President who spoke about the import, storage and distribution of petroleum products.

Expressing his views, President Ranil Wickremesinghe stated that Sri Lanka expects rapid development following the program with the International Monetary Fund.

President Wickremesinghe also expressed his desire to promote and attract foreign businesses to operate within the country in the future.

Minister of Power and Energy Kanchana Wijesekera, Senior Advisor to the President on National Security and Chief of Presidential Staff Sagala Ratnayake, Secretary to the President Saman Ekanayake, Secretary of the Treasury Mahinda Siriwardena, Secretary of the Ministry of Power and Energy Mapa Pathirana and government officials and representatives of the Sinopec Group participated in the discussion.

 

Silicon Valley Bank collapse stirs up fears

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank brings back memories on Capitol Hill of rescuing the financial markets during the 2008 collapse, raising concerns among lawmakers that taxpayers may have to pay to bail out risky financial bets. 

President Joe Biden assured the nation that no taxpayer money will be used after lawmakers warned over the weekend they will not support bailouts, which are unpopular with voters.  

The president said the money to cover depositors would come from the fees banks pay into the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and promised that managers at failed banks would be fired and stock-holding investors would not be protected — sidestepping a fight with Congress.  

Still, there is already disagreement over what constitutes a bailout and the fund being used to pay depositors — including over the US$250,000 for standard insurance from the FDIC — is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.

Some conservative Republicans are already making the argument that covering depositors above the FDIC’s regular US$250,000 deposit insurance limit is creating a future moral hazard and could embolden risky behavior heading forward.  

A GOP aide predicted that more conservatives would push that argument once they return to Washington and have more time to examine the details of Biden’s intervention.  

“I’m sure there will be people who take the view that there shouldn’t be government intervention on any of this,” the aide said.  

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle spent Sunday assuring voters they were against a bailout.

Sen. Bob Menendez said, he was not ready to offer them a bailout by any stretch of the imagination, while Rep. Nancy Mace said, “It’s still very early. I don’t even think it’s been 48 hours. But at this time, I would not support a bailout.”

Biden’s decision to intervene and pledge on Monday that no depositors will lose their money was viewed as an effort to avoid repeat of the panic that gripped the financial markets in 2008 after the Bush administration decided not to rescue Lehman Brothers Inc., a major investment bank.  

Former Sen. Ben Nelson, who was in the Senate when Lehman Brothers collapsed, said then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and other senior administration officials were uncertain at first about how to respond to the crisis. 

“It isn’t quite déjà vu because it’s different. First of all, Biden stepped forward and said this is what it’s going to be. It isn’t a bailout, it’s going to be making sure depositors are covered,” Nelson said.  

Nelson said Biden appears to have learned a key lesson from the fall of 2008, the federal government must act quickly and decisively to prevent fear from quickly spreading through the financial markets.  

“I don’t know how many days it was, the secretary of the Treasury was getting together with us trying what to do. There wasn’t any plan that I can recall that came together right away as quickly as this did,” he said, comparing the federal response in 2008 to today.  

Liberals, meanwhile, are going on offense by blaming Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse on a banking deregulation bill signed in 2018 under President Trump.  

“In 2018, Donald Trump signed a law to deregulate large banks like SVB and Signature Bank. In opposing Trump’s decision to roll back the toughest regulatory requirements in Dodd-Frank, I warned at the time that this could create serious vulnerabilities and may make it more difficult for regulators to spot a threat to financial stability from a larger bank while increasing competitive pressures on community banks and credit unions, Sen. Jack Reed, a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in a statement Monday afternoon.  

The Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act, which passed the Senate with bipartisan support in 2018, scaled back some requirements of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, which Congress passed after the 2008 financial collapse.  

Critics say it contributed to the downfall of Signature Bank, which the FDIC took control of Sunday.  

Together they mark the second- and third-biggest bank collapses, respectively, in US history and kindled fears of runs on regional banks across the country. 

Shares of San Francisco-based First Republic bank fell 62% on Monday while Western Alliance Bancorp shares fell 47% and PacWest Bancorp shares dropped 21%. 

“Let’s be clear. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank is a direct result of an absurd 2018 bank deregulation bill signed by Donald Trump that I strongly opposed,” Sen. Bernie Sanders said.   

“Five years ago, the Republican Director of the Congressional Budget Office released a report finding that this legislation would ‘increase the likelihood that a large financial firm with assets of between $100 billion and $250 billion would fail,” he said.  

Sen. Elizabeth Warren wrote in a New York Times op-ed Monday, “Had Congress and the Federal Reserve not rolled back the stricter oversight, S.V.B. and Signature would have been subject to stronger liquidity and capital requirements to withstand financial shocks.” 

Some Republicans, on the other hand, blamed Silicon Valley Bank’s downfall on a lack of proper oversight from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. They argue that federal regulators have become too preoccupied with climate and other woke issues to watch out for fundamental problems.  

“There’s no mystery what transpired. They had 10% insured deposits; they had massive unrealized losses because their portfolio was weighted in long-duration debt so they had a liquidity mismatch. It didn’t matter what artificial regulatory you put into place, you could not overcome the underlying fundamentals of the mismatch and the high rate of uninsured deposits,” said a second GOP aide.  

“How the hell did the regulator miss this? That’s the whole point of supervisory examination, to spot this type of thing,” the aide added.  

The Republican aide argued that Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse doesn’t call for a new wave of regulation because its circumstances of its liquidity shortfall don’t affect the vast majority of other banks.  

“There was no bank in the country with a larger liquidity mismatch than SVB. Nobody else even comes close to the problem that this bank had. That’s what makes it so astonishing that the regulators missed it,” the GOP aide added.  

Silicon Valley Bank reported in a December regulatory filing that 95 percent of its bank deposits were uninsured.  

Biden administration officials hastily convened a call with Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate Sunday evening to brief them on the plans to insure the deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.  

The briefing was convened so quickly that only a few Senate Republicans participated, including Sen. Mitt Romney (Utah) and Senate Republican Whip John Thune’s staff.  

The administration held a second briefing midday Monday to bring Republican senators who missed the Sunday call up to speed.  

The quick outreach appeared to pay off when Romney voiced support for the administration’s actions during the Sunday call and then tweeted his support.  

Romney retweeted a statement from the Federal Reserve announcing the plan to ensure depositors’ savings and praised it as the right decision.  

Democratic leaders on Monday applauded the Biden administration for taking quick action and urged colleagues to look closely at the failure of Silicon Valley Bank to weigh whether more regulation is needed.  

“We are grateful that the Biden administration, Federal Reserve and FDIC took swift action to safeguard depositors and maintain confidence in the banking system,” Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a joint statement.  

“Americans should have faith that bank regulators are doing everything they can to protect consumers. In the coming days and weeks, Congress will be looking closely at the causes behind the run on Silicon Valley Bank and other banks and how we can prevent a similar crisis in the future,” they said.  

The vast majority of congressional Republicans stayed quiet on Monday, with neither Speaker Kevin McCarthy nor Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell commenting on the decision to cover the potential losses of bank depositors.  

McCarthy told Fox News Sunday that the administration had the tools to handle the current situation but voiced hope that regulators would find a larger bank to buy Silicon Valley Bank to cover the depositors.  

“This bank is a unique bank, where they do have assets, they have an amazing clientele, it’s something that could be very possible [for] someone to purchase this bank,” he said, describing that as “the best outcome.”  

 

Iran to supply Pakistan another 100MW electricity

Iranian Energy Minister Ali-Akbar Mehrabian announced completion of a power transmission line to Pakistan with the aim of boosting electricity exchanges between the two countries, IRNA reported.

The two countries signed a contract on Monday to officially use the mentioned transmission line for exchanging up to 200 megawatts (MW) of electricity in the near future.

The contract was signed in a ceremony attended by Mehrabian and his Pakistani counterpart Khurram Dastgir Khan.

"The electricity transmission line between Iran and Pakistan was designed and built in less than a year with a capacity of 200 megawatts," Mehrabian told the press on the sidelines of a meeting with Dastgir Khan prior to the signing ceremony.

“The necessary experiments and tests have been carried out on this line and it is now electrified,” he said.

"In today's meeting with the minister of energy of Pakistan, there were good discussions about the exchange of electricity through this line," Mehrabian added.

The official put the current value of annual trade between the two countries at over two billion dollars, adding that with the construction of this line, the volume of electricity exchanges between the two countries will increase to 200 megawatts which will be a significant boost for the economic ties.

Dastgir Khan for his part referred to his previous trip to Iran saying, “In this trip, the progress of the previous agreements regarding electricity exchanges between the two countries through the electricity transmission line was pursued and efforts were made to reach a final agreement.”

Emphasizing the necessity of developing and deepening the relations between the two countries he added, "It is hoped that we will witness the development of electricity exchanges between the two countries with the final agreement following the formation of technical and commercial teams."

This was the second meeting of the energy ministers of the two neighboring countries in less than a year. Dastgir Khan met with Mehrabian during his trip to Tehran last June.

 

 

Monday, 13 March 2023

Growing Chinese influence in West Asia

The announcement of an Iranian-Saudi détente after seven years took the international community by surprise. What has perhaps emerged as a bigger surprise is that the deal between Tehran and Riyadh was mediated by China and announced at a ceremony in the country’s capital Beijing.

While Iraq and Oman had tried to bring the two sides back together, it was the Chinese government that managed to clinch a deal in an impressive display of its diplomatic muscle. 

China previously avoided engaging in conflicts between countries beyond its borders, but that policy appears to be changing as it comes on the backdrop of Beijing’s peace proposal to end the Ukraine war that was appreciated by both Kyiv and Moscow.

For many decades, the dominant outside force in West Asia has been the United States, despite objections by a number of regional governments. Washington has hundreds of military bases amid the Pentagon’s efforts to maintain the US hegemony in the region.

Over the past two decades alone, the United States, under the name of its war on terror, has waged wars and triggered conflicts that have seen an unprecedented sharp rise in terrorism and terrorist groups.

With the blessing of Washington and its key regional ally, Israel, the newly formed terror groups under war on terror have killed hundreds of thousands of civilians, especially in Afghanistan Iraq, Syria and Libya. Millions of others have either been injured or displaced from their homes because of America's disastrous foreign policies.

While the US waged war on Afghanistan, Iraq, and indirectly on Syria and Yemen, it has also played a major role in destabilizing West Asia by interfering and fomenting unrest and terror in countries such as Iran and Lebanon while at the same time using all its means to pit one country against the other in the region.

American arms manufacturers and the Zionist regime has been the main beneficiary as a result of Washington’s military adventurism at the expense of the vast number of civilian bloods that has been shed.

Some in West Asia have mistakenly relied on the US for their security purposes, not realizing that once America’s interests are no served by that country, Washington simply abandons it along with all of its alleged security guarantees.

This has been witnessed in various times, most notably in Afghanistan. To a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia has felt skeptic over the US support for the war on Yemen.

China's role in securing the Saudi-Iran deal is a tricky test for the US. Scenes of Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission; Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council; and Minister of State and National Security Adviser of Saudi Arabia Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban posing for pictures during a meeting in Beijing contains an element that is sure to make officials in Washington feel deeply uneasy.

The role of China as a peace broker in a region where the US has long wielded influence will take the Pentagon aback. The White House says the US is closely monitoring Beijing's behavior in West Asia and elsewhere. 

The wider picture will be viewed by Washington that some in West Asia have come to the conclusion that their dependency on the US no longer serves their interests.

China has no military bases in West Asia. In fact, China has no bases anywhere in the world. The only Chinese soldiers based outside the country are the ones serving under the UN peacekeeping force in Africa.

Beijing does not wage wars, nor does it have any desire in waging or instigating wars or conflicts. It does not even seek to compete with the United States in the fields of economy or military. 

Experts say China is now the number one economic powerhouse in the world and that appeal to nations in West Asia and beyond.

Over the past decade, many have come to their senses that forging closer ties with China brings economic prosperity for their own people, with no strings attached. 

Unlike Washington, Beijing does not set conditions or ask favors from other countries who seek to trade and cooperate with it.

In a further sign that the Saudis are looking to forge closer ties with America's foes, last year Riyadh and Beijing held talks over the export of Saudi oil in the Chinese currency and not the dollar. 

The US has been viewing China’s growing ties with regional countries as a threat to its own interests in West Asia, and for this reason it has raised tensions with China. 

It is US aircraft carriers sailing next to Chinese waters and not the other way around. Washington has also made ludicrous accusations of a Chinese weather balloon that Beijing admitted strayed off course, as an espionage object and dramatically used fighter jets to shoot it down. 

The fear-mongering and disinformation campaign against China clearly hasn't worked as evidenced by Tehran and Riyadh signing a deal in Beijing to restore their full diplomatic relationship.

The US military approach has brought nothing but disaster to West Asia, while the Chinese approach of advocating peace has been met with international praise, with the exception of the US and Israel of course that sought to side with the Saudis to isolate Iran.

What will disappoint the US the most is that the China-backed Iran-Saudi deal also offers the hope of calming the situation on the ground in other West Asian countries, such as Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. 

Former senior American diplomat Jeffrey Feltman said China's role was the most significant aspect of the agreement.

"This will be interpreted - probably accurately - as a slap at the Biden administration and as evidence that China is the rising power," said Feltman, now a fellow at the Brookings Institution.

China's involvement in brokering the Iran-Saudi deal could have significant implications for Washington, said Daniel Russel, the top US diplomat for East Asia under former President Barack Obama.

"The question is, whether this is the shape of things to come?" he said. "Could it be a precursor to a Chinese mediation effort between Russia and Ukraine when Xi visits Moscow?"

The declining US-led world order has been so damaging that China now feels the time has come to step in and try to reverse the vast level of global instability the Pentagon has caused and no region is more insecure at the moment than West Asia.

It is perhaps fair to say that the days of the US wielding its sinister influence in West Asia are slowly but surely coming to an end. 

 

US shale production to rise to highest in April

US shale crude oil production in the seven biggest shale basins is expected to rise in April to its highest since December 2019, the Energy Information Administration said on Monday.

Shale production is expected to rise by 68,000 barrels per day - the slimmest rise since December 2022 - to 9.21 million bpd, the EIA data showed.

Crude output in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest US shale oil basin, is expected to rise to 5.62 million bpd. Though that would be a record high, oil output from the region is expected to gain by 26,000 bpd from the previous month, also the smallest increase since last December, the data showed.

In the Bakken region of North Dakota and Montana, output is due to rise 18,000 bpd to 1.16 million bpd, the highest since March 2022.

Crude oil production in the South Texas Eagle Ford region is due to gain by 9,000 bpd to 1.13 million bpd, highest since April 2020.

Total natural gas output in the big shale basins will increase by about 0.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to a record 96.6 bcfd in April, EIA projected.

In the biggest shale gas basin, Appalachia in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, output will rise to 35.0 bcfd in April, the highest since November 2022.

That compares with a monthly gas output record in Appalachia of 36.0 bcfd in December 2021.

Gas output in the Permian and the Haynesville in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas will rise to record highs of 22.5 bcfd and 16.8 bcfd in April, respectively.

Gas output in Appalachia was expected to increase even though drillers there have been getting less gas out of each new well for 25 months in a row.

EIA said it expected new Appalachia gas well production per rig to drop to 24.2 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) in April, the lowest since June 2020.

New gas well production per rig in Appalachia hit a record of 33.3 mmcfd in March 2021.