World heading towards worst food crisis

There are more warnings about the worsening global food crisis. Here is a snapshot of the latest key food stories from around the world. The countries having ample stockpiles have to stop smuggling to neighboring countries, and those with little supplies have to purchase as much as they can affords, that too in a speedy manner.

Pricey Nutrients

Expensive fertilizers are just one of many factors that have driven food prices to a record level. In response, rice farmers across Asia are scaling back usage of the nutrients, threatening harvests of a staple that feeds half the world.

The repercussions could be huge, predicts International Rice Research Institute. Yields could drop 10% in the next season, causing a loss of 36 million tons of rice, or the equivalent of feeding 500 million people. That could exacerbate food inflation that’s contributing to turmoil gripping developing nations such as Egypt, Tunisia and Sri Lanka.

Costly Shipping

Food prices are also being buoyed by high shipping costs, which is bad news for grain-importing countries, particularly in Africa and Asia.

The International Chamber of Shipping said about 80 to 100 ships have been unable to leave Ukrainian waters for almost two months due to underwater mines and military blockades.

Bulk freight rates are rising as owners and charterers expect ships will be tied up for longer periods. And that’s at a time when many importers are struggling to afford to buy enough grain. 

Food for Thought

The quality of Indian wheat — which has put off some buyers in the past — will be crucial as the country’s grain becomes competitive for the first time in years as the Ukraine war upends global trade flows. 

In Canada, where drought pummeled harvests last year, snow now threatens to delay crop plantings. The wintry weather there should mean more maple syrup because farmers can tap trees for longer.

And prices of fish crackers, a popular side dish in Indonesia, are set to surge as it becomes more expensive to make them.

Michael Ratney likely new US ambassador to Saudi Arabia

President Joe Biden is anticipated to nominate Michael Ratney, a career member of the foreign service, to serve as ambassador to Saudi Arabia, the White House announced Friday.

Ratney most recently served as the Chargé d’Affaires at the US Embassy in Jerusalem while Biden’s choice for ambassador to Israel, Thomas Nides, awaited confirmation. He has served in various State Department roles focused on Israel and the Middle East.

If confirmed, Ratney would serve as Biden’s envoy to the Kingdom at a precarious time for US-Saudi relations. The Biden administration has looked to Saudi Arabia and others to step up oil supply amid rising gas prices after the US and some other nations banned Russian oil imports over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Relations with Saudi Arabia have also been complicated given the kingdom’s human rights abuses, particularly the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Biden vowed last year to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for Khashoggi’s murder after US officials determined Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the killing.

The Wall Street Journal reported last month that Crown Prince Mohammed refused to speak with Biden about the US banning Russian oil imports. The White House called the report inaccurate.

Michael Alan Ratney born in 1961 is at present the Chargé d'Affaires of the United States Embassy in Israel. He was most recently the Dean of the School of Language Studies at the Department of State's Foreign Service Institute. Prior to that, Ratney served as the State Department's Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Levant and Israel-Palestinian Affairs and, from 2015 to 2017, as the US Special Envoy for Syria. From 2012 to 2015, Ratney was the US Consul General in Jerusalem. Until 2012, Ratney was Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Media and, before that, Spokesman for the State Department's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. He is the current nominee to be the next United States Ambassador to Saudi Arabia.

Since joining the Foreign Service in 1990, Ratney served as Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Doha, Qatar, as well as tours in Mexico City, Baghdad, Beirut, Casablanca, Bridgetown, and Washington, DC. Ratney is from Massachusetts. He earned a BS from Boston University, and an MA from the George Washington University.

 

Iran notifies Tel Aviv aiming its missiles at strategic Israeli sites

An unnamed Iranian source revealed to Al Jazeera that Tehran has informed Tel Aviv that they know the locations of all of their nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons sites, and has warned them that, in the event of any aggression, Iran will strike the sensitive targets.

The cable was sent through European intermediaries and included a map showcasing where all these targets are located, according to The Cradle.co.

An informed IR Iranian source told Al-Jazeera that Tehran red flagged all chemical, biological and nuclear weapons storages and facilities of IL Israel and that they will be the first targets, in case Israel decides to start a war with Iran. 

The information was initially reported, without explanation as to the source of such revelations, by independent conflict analysis and news aggregate channel IntelSky on April 18, 2022.

“Iran has sent to Israel, through European intermediaries, pictures/locations of all its biological, chemical and nuclear weapons storages that will be struck at the first military clash,” IntelSky said on Twitter.

These news comes after Iranian President Sayed Ebrahim Raisi made a general warning on April, 18, 2022 saying that any Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic will result in Iran striking into the heart of Israeli occupied lands and military bases.

“Just know that if the slightest move on your part occurs against our nation, our armed forces will target the center of the Zionist regime, and the power of our armed forces will not leave you at rest,” Raisi said as Iran marked Army Day.

During his speech, Raisi also said Iran’s military capabilities are internationally recognized.

“Today, our military industry is in the best condition,” he said.

After Raisi’s speech, a series of missiles, launch systems, and more than a dozen types of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were displayed.

Asian Shipowners’ Associations oppose hike in toll changes by Panama and Suez Canals

According to Seatrade Maritime News, Asian Shipowners’ Associations (ASA) are critical of recent proposed toll changes at both Panama Canal and Suez Canal Authorities. At a recent meeting, ASA delegates expressed concern and disappointment over the proposed hike in canal toll changes.

They reiterated the significance of Suez and Panama canals as critical global infrastructure and called for the canal authorities to avoid sudden and significant changes in tolls and charges.

“Delegates expressed their confusion against new surcharges introduced on March 01, 2022 with only 48 hours prior notice, then to be revised on May 01, 2022 by Suez Canal Authority (SCA), which resulted in roughly a 7 to 20 percent increase in toll for different types of vessels, in addition to a 6 percent tariff hike for most types of vessels, implemented on February 01, 2022,” said ASA.

Uncertainty around how surcharges operate could undermine the stability of the Canal, said the committee, calling for the industry to express its concerns to SCA.

ASA delegates appreciated some positives in the Panama Canal’s new toll system proposed earlier in April 2022 by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). Delegates said the ACP had given sufficient notice and a formal consultation period, but were concerned that significant toll hikes could affect the long-term viability of the canal, “as the mark-up for some types of vessels may exceed 100% in 2025, as compared to the current toll.”

The ASA meeting also discussed the review of anti-trust exemptions for carriers on the US, a policy delegates said was “indispensable for the healthy development of the liner shipping industry and the maintenance of a reliable service to the entire trading community.” ASA will continue its efforts to maintain anti-trust exemptions for liner shipping agreements.

 

United States pouring more and more arms into Ukraine

With the each passing day my conviction is being cemented that United States has instigated Russia-Ukraine conflict to keep its military complexes busy in developing newer and more lethal arms. It is supplying arms from ‘stockpile’ to get rid of older stuff. 

The sale of these arms is fully funded, because the US has ample funds at its disposal after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. 

Reportedly, Joe Biden, President of United States on Thursday announced to send another US$800 million in military aid to Ukraine to assist its ability to fight invading Russian forces.

The package has come a week after the administration sent a US$800 million weapons package to Ukraine, and as Ukraine will need to fend off Russian forces fighting to control the Donbas region.

With Thursday’s announcement, the United States has committed US$4 billion in security assistance since the start of the Biden administration, including US$3.4 billion since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022.  

Thursday’s package will include 72 155mm howitzers, 144,000 artillery rounds and 72 tactical vehicles to tow the howitzers, according to a statement from the Pentagon.

Ukraine will also be receiving 121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems developed by the Air Force for specifically Ukraine.  

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters that these systems, made by AEVEX Aerospace, have similar capabilities to the Switchblade—a rapidly-deployable system that can be used against personnel and light vehicles. 

To rush weapons to Ukraine, Biden has relied on presidential drawdown authority to direct the Pentagon to send weapons from its own stockpiles.

Biden acknowledged on Tuesday that he was nearing the limits of the drawdown authority provided to him under the US$1.5 trillion omnibus bill he signed last month, which included US$13.6 billion in supplemental aid to help Ukraine.

Therefore, he will ask Congress next week to approve supplemental funding to keep weapons and ammunition flowing without interruption.

When asked how much supplemental funding he would request, Biden said that's being decided now, adding, “I'm asking the Defense Department to put together what they think we need.”

The US officials have in recent weeks warned Russia may be refocusing its efforts in Ukraine on hitting the Donbas region in a bid to overwhelm Ukrainian forces there after initial assaults on Kyiv and other major cities stalled.

Officials have warned the next phase of the fight could drag on for months or longer.

In addition to the military aid, the Biden administration will ask for US$500 million to help Ukraine keep government services. The president also announced a ban on Russian-affiliate ships docking in US ports.

Further, Biden also announced that the US will pledge to take in 100,000 Ukrainians displaced by the crisis.

As part of this, the Uniting for Ukraine program will allow Ukrainians to apply to stay in the US for up to two years through a process known as humanitarian parole, which allows government officials to temporarily waive immigration requirements. 

 

Miftah Ismail sounds too amateur

Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said on Thursday that he was leaving for Washington to meet International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials for the revival of a loan facility. In the same breath he added to travel to London on the way, where he would meet PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif.

He disclosed his intension to meet the IMF Managing Director, Chief Executive Officer of the World Bank, Ministers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and China. If he has planned so many meeting, was any agenda prepared or it will be just saying hello to each other?

On Wednesday, he had told media persons that his priority was to secure one tranche of US$1 billion from the IMF and prepare for the coming budget and not to club two quarterly reviews.

He didn’t bother to thank overseas Pakistanis who have sent more than US$23 billion in nine months of the current financial year. One may recall, his government has decided not to give voting rights to overseas Pakistanis, despite their longstanding demand.

He was a bit ruthless in saying that the IMF program was stalled following the premature end of the Imran Khan government. He was not cognizant of the fact that the no-trust motion, which brought Imran Khan Term to an abrupt end, was initiated by his party in collaboration with political parties?

Ismail revealed that the IMF wanted Pakistan to do away with subsidies extended by the previous government, including those on fuel prices and power tariffs — two relief measures that former Prime Minister Imran Khan had announced right before the filing of a no-trust motion against him. The move had invited criticism with many describing it as going against Pakistan's commitments to the IMF for the US$6 billion Extended Fund Facility.

He failed to recall that soon after coming into power Shehbaz Sharif, refused to approve a summary of hike petroleum prices prepared by Oil& Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA).

It may be worth reminding that the single-point maiden meeting of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the newly formed federal cabinet on Tuesday approved Rs69 billion for immediate reimbursement of price differential claims (PDCs) to the oil industry on account of cheaper sales of petroleum products than the cost of purchase. Wasn’t this a violation of commitment with the IMF?

In an attempt to contain budget deficit he expressed intention to save by cutting the development budget to Rs600 billion, instead of Rs900 billion, which might not be spent in any case by the ministries.

He was delighted to inform, “We will not cut a penny out of Benazir Income Support Program”. He went to the extent of saying to compensate; wheat flour price has been reduced by Rs150 per 10kg, while sugar would be sold at Rs70 per kg through utility stores. Edible oil price has also been reduced. Has he any realization that selling at reduced price, means providing subsidy?

 

Russia faces imminent default

According to a Bloomberg report, Russia faces imminent default. The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee—which includes Goldman Sachs, Barclays and JPMorgan—said Wednesday that a “potential failure-to-pay” event occurred for credit-default swaps when Russia paid rubles after foreign banks declined to process US currency transfers. 

If Russia doesn’t pay up in US currency by the time its grace period expires on May 04, 2022, it would be the country’s first default on external debt in more than a century. Holders of the swaps could then start the process of getting paid on contracts covering about US$40 billion of debt.

Bloomberg says, this potential financial calamity for Russia is of course tied to Vladimir Putin’s bloody war on Ukraine and the subsequent storm of sanctions that’s rained down upon him. Some eight weeks after he sent troops across his southern border, Putin has failed to take Kyiv and reportedly lost thousands of soldiers and untold amounts of equipment. Now a small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders are quietly questioning his decision to go to war. They believe the invasion was a catastrophic mistake that will set the country back for years, if not decades.

But most Russians (fear of voicing dissent  notwithstanding) tell pollsters they support Putin’s war, one in which thousands of civilians have likely been killed through seemingly indiscriminate bombing and alleged mass executions.

As Russian forces now move on the Donbas, Moscow is seeking to dissuade NATO from increasing its flow of weapons. On Tuesday, Putin Deputy Sergei Lavrov said Russia was against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but failed to give a direct answer about whether Putin might use them anyway.

And on Wednesday, Russia tested a new nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile, an event Putin used to issue yet another thinly veiled threat against NATO.

In its new assault in Ukraine’s east, Russia has yet to gain significant ground, Ukraine officials contend, though surrounded defenders in the blasted port city of Mariupol have warned they are close to the end. But while Russia seeks to consolidate gains along the Sea of Azov, the potential expansion of NATO along its northern border is getting closer to reality.

Finland’s parliament began debate on policy changes that may pave the way for a bid to join the alliance. Putin still has friends in Beijing, at least. China said it will continue to strengthen its strategic ties with the Kremlin.

 

Israeli weapon seen used by Ukrainian unit against Russia

An anti-armor weapon jointly developed by Israel, Singapore and a German company has been seen in use by the Neo-Nazi Azov Battalion against Russian military forces.

In a video released by the Azov Battalion, a Ukrainian fighter, ostensibly affiliated with the controversial unit, can be seen firing the portable anti-tank weapon at what appears to be a Russian armored personnel carrier (APC).

As Western countries have undertaken massive arms transfers to Ukraine to support it in its war against Russia, critics such as The Intercept’s Sara Sirota have expressed concern that these weapons could end up in the Azov Battalion, which was integrated into Ukraine’s National Force in 2014.

Anti-tank and armor weapons such as the Javelin, NLAW and MATADOR have been a mainstay of arms transfers to Ukraine. In a March 16, 2022 briefing, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said “Anti-armor and air-defense systems, they are effectively defending the country.”

The German Defense Ministry listed 2,650 MATADORs for purchase by Ukraine, Süddeutsche Zeitung reported in March. Euromaidan Press reported that they had been purchased for €25 million, along with another 2,450 that will be produced.

The recently released video shows that these partly Israeli-developed weapons are now in the hands of the Azov Battalion, which has been widely characterized as a neo-Nazi militia. While CNN and other media analysis have weighed the possibility that Azov has reformed, the group still has prominent neo-Nazis in its ranks and features white supremacist symbols.

The Battalion’s logo still has the Black Sun, a common white supremacist symbol, and the Wolfsangel symbol used by the Nazi SS.

This is not the first time concerns have been raised about Israeli weapons and Ukraine. In February, Interfax Ukraine reported that the Israeli Defense Ministry told Baltic states that it wouldn’t meet requests for third-party transfer of Israeli-made weapons to Ukraine.

In 2018, Haaretz reported that human rights activists filed a petition to the High Court of Justice demanding an end to arms exports to Ukraine over concern they would reach Azov militants.

Haaretz published an image showing an Israel Weapons Industry Tavor sub-machine gun being held by an Azov Battalion soldier. Tavors have also been seen wielded by Ukrainian fighters in the recent conflict, produced under license by Ukrainian company RPC Fort as the FORT-221, according to The Warzone.

The MATADOR, also known in European markets as the RGW 90, is an unguided short-range shoulder-fired anti-armor rocket launcher jointly developed by Israeli government-owned defense firm RAFAEL Advanced Defense Systems, Singapore’s armed forces and Defence Science and Technology Agency, and German defense company Dynamit Nobel.

The MATADOR platform was developed for the confined spaces of urban warfare environments and is capable of penetrating the armor of most APCs and light tanks, according to the Singaporean Defense Ministry.

The weapon has a “dual-capability” warhead beyond normal anti-tank weapons, a delay action mode designed to blow open walls and create an entry into buildings. When fighting in urban environments, the ability to avoid entering though doors and windows can mean avoiding ambush or booby traps.

The weapon is “among the lightest in its class,” according to the Singaporean Defense Ministry, and extremely versatile.

According to Dynamit Nobel Defense, the MATADOR is capable of firing smokescreen and illumination munitions in addition to its anti-armor, vehicle and tank functions.

It has a maximum effective range of 500 meters, according to technical specifications published by the Singaporean Defense Ministry.

The MATADOR is in use by several states, including the Israel Defense Forces, where it has seen effective and active service. Among some IDF soldiers, the weapon is considered too expensive to fire in training. The wall opening function is particularly valued by IDF soldiers, who have used it in heavily built-up environments such as the Gaza Strip.

 

Iranian President issues stern warning to Israel

Iranian President Ayatollah Seyed Ebrahim Raisi has issued a strong warning against any Israeli move to harm Iran, making sure that his country is aware of Israel’s possible plans to take the battle into Iran. 

The timing and the venue from which the warning was issued could not be more meaningful. President Raisi made the remarks during a military parade held on the occasion of the Iranian Army Day. Flanked by Army generals in an elevated stand, Raisi told parading troops that Iran will respond to any Israeli aggression against Iran in Israel’s depth. 

Underlining that Iran will never start a war, but will face any aggression with a remorseful and decisive response; President Raisi announced the high readiness of the country's military forces and the high intelligence elite of these forces in the face of regional and international developments.

He asserted that the slightest movement of the enemy will not be hidden from the sharp eyes of Iran’s armed forces, noting, “The Zionist regime (Israel) that is seeking to normalize relations with some regional countries must know that the slightest move it makes will not be hidden from the sharp eyes and intelligence of the Armed Forces and intelligent forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Stressing that any movement of the Zionist regime against Iran will lead to a decisive response from the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Raisi warned the leaders of the regime, “Beware that the great and formidable power of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will not leave you as you are for a second.”

This is the highest-level warning after the Iranian missile strike in March against a “Mossad headquarters” in Erbil, northern Iraq, which was reportedly a response to a previously announced Israeli drone attack in the western Iranian province of Kermanshah.

Iran’s Al-Alam news television said the missile attack, launched by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), came in response to a recent Israeli drone attack in the Mahidasht region in western Iran.

Little is known about the Mahidasht strike but it apparently marked a significant stage in what Israelis call the “Octopus doctrine,” which happens to be a brainchild of Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.  

The doctrine means that Israel should take the battle to Iran instead of fighting Iran’s allies across the West Asia region. Bennett outlined the doctrine at the Herzliya Conference in May 2018 when he was education minister. 

“While we’re shedding blood fighting their tentacles, the octopus’s head is lounging in its chair enjoying itself,” he said of Iran, adding that it was time for Israel “to aim at the head of the octopus and not its tentacles.”

Bennett reiterated the doctrine when he became defense minister, saying in February 2020 that “when the tentacles of the octopus strike you, do not fight only against the tentacle, but suffocate its head, likewise with Iran.”

But Bennett has largely failed in carrying out his doctrine due to Iran’s vigilance. Israel was unable to mount a significant attack inside Iran. And the Mahidasht attack was so minor in its effect that Israel was unwilling to highlight it at the media level just as it does with the attacks that it does not claim responsibility for. 

Anyway, Iran seems more vigilant than ever vis-a-vis Israel’s moves. Iran has long said it is watching all the steps Israel makes in the region whether through its new allies or directly. And has the will to respond to any aggressive move, as Raisi said.

Interruption in Libyan oil supply: A cause of concern or bluff only

Contrary to the wishes of US fund managers price of crude oil could not be jacked up. The United States caused a war like situation in Ukraine to keep oil prices at an elevated level. When the strategy failed US supported forces in Libya caused virtual shut down of production and loading facilities.

I have preferred to term this strategy a bluff only because Libya’s share in global oil markets is paltry. Export or no export is hardly of any consequence. Dissemination of such reports by the Western media facilitates the fund managers to drive the market and make windfall profit.

 Reportedly, Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) has declared force majeure on another key Libyan oil field, the 300,000 bpd Al Sharara, amid protests that had shut down production at two ports and the El Feel oilfield on Sunday.

NOC said, “A group of individuals put pressure on workers in the Al-Sharara oil field and forced them to gradually shut down production and made it impossible for the NOC to implement its contractual obligations”. 

The NOC said it was “obliged” to declare a state of force majeure on Al Sharara “until further notice”. 

Al-Sharara is Libya’s biggest oilfield, and the move effectively suspended all Libyan oil production and exports. 

On Sunday, the NOC said that loadings of crude oil at two Libyan ports had been suspended amid anti-government protests that were interfering with oil industry operations.

Loading from the Mellita terminal was suspended following a shut down in production at the El Feel oil field, with the NOC stating that individuals were preventing the field’s workers from continuing production. 

Also on Sunday, the NOC shut down operations at the Zueitina export terminal over protests calling for the resignation of incumbent Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah.  

The NOC has been eyeing a ramp-up in production to 1.4 million bpd for Libya, but a new political battle is setting the stage for potential return to civil war. Libya has been producing around 1million bpd since the beginning of this year. 

Two rival governments have now emerged in Libya, with incumbent Prime Minister Deibah refusing to step down for newly sworn-in eastern Prime Minister Fathi Bashaga, who last week said his forces would take over the capital Tripoli peacefully. 

The latest protests that have led to force majeure appear to be engineered by supporters of the Bashaga to gain control of the oil industry from supporters of the incumbent Dbeibah. 

Early on Monday, the initial force majeure declarations pushed oil prices higher, with Brent trading above US$111 per barrel.

With the latest force majeure declaration for Al-Sharara, oil prices are pushing higher still, with Brent at US$113 at the time of writing and WTI above US$108. 

 

Safeen Feeders inks agreement with Saif Powertec of Bangladesh

According to Seatrade Maritime News, UAE-based Safeen Feeders has inked an agreement with Bangladesh’s Saif Powertec for the delivery of bulk cargoes from Fujairah to Chattogram and Mongla. 

The new bulk shipping offering will also oversee cargo operations to the Indian subcontinent, South-East Asia, and other global destinations, Abu Dhabi’s AD Ports Group, which owns Safeen Feeders, said.

 “Leveraging Safeen Feeders’ expertise as a leading maritime service provider, as well as the advanced capabilities of its modernized fleet, Saif is well-positioned to accelerate the trade of dry construction materials between the UAE and Bangladesh, along with other dry cargo goods to key markets across the region and beyond,” Capt. Maktoum Al Houqani, CEO Maritime Cluster, AD Ports Group, said.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts real GDP growth of 6.5% for Dhaka in 2022. With a population of 168 million people, Bangladesh’s economy was booming until the coronavirus pandemic hit, after witnessing real growth of 8.2% in 2019, and is now preparing for a new burst of development. Platts said that Bangladesh was the world’s fifth-biggest wheat importer in 2019.

Set up in 2020 in a tie-up with Singapore’s Bengal Tiger Line, Safeen Feeders has launched two main container services. The weekly UAE Indian Sub-Continent Gulf (UIG) service is a “pendulum” service of three 1,700 teu vessels on a 21-day rotation calling at Khalifa Port, Sharjah, Bahrain, Dammam, Umm Qasr, Karachi, Mundra, Kandla, and Nhava Sheva. Its weekly UAE Coast & Oman (UCO) service offers a 1,000 teu vessel calling at Khalifa Port, Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain, Ras Al Khaimah, and Sohar.

In a fact sheet shared with Seatrade Maritime News, Safeen Feeders said that, as of March, its container fleet consisted of nine container ships, eight owned and one chartered in.

“We are pleased to announce the start of our close partnership with AD Ports Group’s Safeen Feeders, which has greatly enhanced our capabilities as Bangladesh’s sole terminal operator to facilitate the movement of dry cargo at the international level,” Tarafder MD Ruhul Amin, Managing Director Saif Powertec, said.

According to Safeen Feeders’ own website, in addition to 18 tugs, its fleet also includes seven pilot boats, seven speedboats, one buoy maintenance vessel, one diving supply vessel and two oil spill response boats. Safeen Feeders’ bulk carriers will be offered on a bareboat or time charter basis.

 

Sri Lankan default should be an eye opener for Pakistan

As Sri Lankan officials arrive Washington to meet with the International Monetary Fund amid an economic and political crisis, the main question they’ll need to answer is how the country plans to manage its billions in debt.

Reportedly, Sri Lanka is seeking up to US$4 billion this year to help it import essentials and pay creditors. To get any of that through the IMF’s various programs, the government of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa must present a sustainable debt program. That’s a standard requirement for aid from the lender of last resort, even if a shortage of food, fuel and medicine is pushing the country toward a humanitarian crisis.

The downward economic spiral — dwindling foreign reserves and soaring inflation — has triggered political unrest in Colombo, where Rajapaksa has resisted calls to step down despite growing protests and a loss of coalition partners in parliament. Over the weekend, the army denied speculation it planned to crack down on protesters, while the local stock exchange announced it would shut this week amid the uncertainty.

The outlook makes a default inevitable, as  acknowledged by S&P Global last week when it downgraded Sri Lanka’s credit rating and warned of another cut if the nation misses coupon payments due on Monday. Meanwhile, investors are trying to figure out how much they might recover on $12.6 billion of foreign bonds, and if there’s even profit to be made.

The country’s dollar bond due July 2022 indicated 5.2 cents higher on Monday to trade at 46 cents on the dollar, after a sharp drop Friday.

Here are some IMF funding options in play as talks are due to start this week:

Emergency Assistance

IMF members can access one-off emergency loans, with few conditions, through the lender’s Rapid Credit Facility and Rapid Financing Instrument. However, this payout is capped at 50% of a state’s quota for a year, which in Sri Lanka’s case works out to US$395 million — or 289 million in special drawing rights, the IMF’s unit of account. The nation has declared that it will prioritize payments for food and fuel imports over debt servicing.

But even for that, Colombo needs to take steps toward restructuring its debt, which the IMF staff last month determined was unsustainable.

“When the IMF determines that a country’s debt is not sustainable, the country needs to take steps to restore debt sustainability prior to IMF lending,” Masahiro Nozaki, the IMF’s mission chief for Sri Lanka, said in an emailed response to questions. “Thus, approval of an IMF-supported program for Sri Lanka would require adequate assurances that debt sustainability will be restored.”

Meeting the criteria could include even initial steps like hiring advisers, which the government is pursuing. The administration has set a Friday deadline for applications from financial and legal advisers, extending its original date by a week. That makes Finance Minister Ali Sabry’s stated goal of securing emergency funds as early as a week after negotiations start look optimistic.

Given Sri Lanka has a US$1 billion bond maturing in July and more repayments over the course of 2022, it will probably need access to the IMF’s Stand-By Arrangement. Termed as its “workhorse” instrument, Sri Lanka would be eligible for a loan of as much as 435% of its quota — roughly US$3.4 billion, net of repayments — for up to 36 months.

The payout can be front-loaded if the need is dire, but is contingent upon the borrower agreeing to conditions such as specific revenue and deficit targets.

Central bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said last week that it was too early to estimate a value of the lending that Sri Lanka could get from the IMF or to confirm the type of program that the lender could agree to.

While he said that an Extended Fund Facility — which allows longer repayment periods — may be best suited to the country, it typically requires deeper structural reforms. Sri Lanka had that facility approved in 2016, and a Stand-By Arrangement before it during the financial crisis of 2009.

Weerasinghe noted that Sri Lanka in the 2009 loan was approved for access to 400% of its quota.

“I do not see why we cannot get at least that amount,” he said. “Now the financial gap is much much higher.”

Keeping deficits in check will entail extending the maturity of existing debt and smaller interest payments. When the government last week announced it would halt debt payments and warned it was heading for an unprecedented default, Weerasinghe said authorities were seeking to negotiate with creditors.

Nomura Holdings Inc. envisions an Ecuador-style restructuring where Sri Lanka will swap notes for longer-dated bonds with lower coupon rates and some reduction to principal. Barclays Plc said Sri Lanka could roll all of its debt into a new bond with a final maturity in 2037 and semi-annual amortizations starting in 2027; coupons could be in the range of 4% to 5%, lower than its current average 6.6%.

Rajapaksa’s government has also appealed to China, one of its biggest creditors, for an additional US$2.5 billion in support. While President Xi Jinping has pledged to help, an apparent reluctance reflects both a rethink in its external lending practices and a hesitancy to be seen interfering in messy domestic political situations.

Earlier this month, Jin Liqun, President of the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, encouraged Sri Lanka to turn to the IMF. Neighbor India is also assisting Sri Lanka with credit lines to purchase food and fuel.

Sabry, the Finance Minister, said last week that the country will hold talks with other lenders, including the World Bank and Asian Development Bank, adding that the country is committed to honoring its debt. “We will pay every dollar we borrowed,” he said.

As Sri Lanka is set to start IMF talks, what are its options?

Sri Lanka is seeking up to US$4 billion to pay for essentials and pay creditors, but it must show IMF a sustainable debt plan.

British Prime Minister visit to India

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's visit this week to India is seen as long overdue, having been cancelled twice before – first when he was invited as a chief guest for Republic Day celebrations due to a COVID-19 spike in the UK in early 2021 and then cancelled again as a result of the pandemic situation in India at that time last year.

Boris is expected to announce major investments in key industries in India and push for democracies to stick together in the face of threats from “autocratic states" during his two-day visit to India, starting April 21, 2022.

"The visit will begin from Ahmadabad on April 21, 2022 to meet with leading businesses and discuss the UK-India thriving commercial, trade and people links. This will be the first time a UK Prime Minister will visit Gujarat, India's fifth-largest state and the ancestral home of around half of the British-Indian population in the UK," Downing Street said in a statement.

1) In Gujarat, Johnson is expected to announce new science, health and technology projects, as well as major investments in key industries in the United Kingdom and India.

2) The focal point of Johnson’s India visit is expected to be the bilateral discussions and interactions with Indian business leaders.

3) A joint statement, being worked on by both sides, is likely to cover agreements across a variety of sectors, including defence, security and education.

4) The Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to feature strongly during the meeting

5) Boris had spoken to Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month and agreed to build a strong relationship between the two countries on trade, security and business in the coming days.

 

Boris will seek to put his domestic problems behind him when he visits India, on a trip to strengthen links between the two countries which have not seen eye to eye over the response to the Ukraine crisis.

 Boris will head to India on Thursday with calls for his resignation ringing in his ears after he was fined for breaking his own COVID-19 lockdown rules by attending a birthday party for him in Downing Street in June 2020.

Parliament returns from its Easter vacation on Tuesday and Johnson has said he would "set the record straight" about gatherings in his office. He had previously told lawmakers there were no parties and guidance was always followed.

In details released on Saturday, Johnson's office said the British leader would use his trip to India to deepen relations, including in-depth talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the two nations' "strategic defence, diplomatic and economic partnership".

He will also push for progress in talks on a free trade deal, which Britain is hoping to strike as part of its post-Brexit strategy. His office said such a trade deal was predicted to boost Britain's total trade by up to US$36.5 billion annually by 2035.

But the visit will be overshadowed in part by disagreement over the Ukraine conflict. Western allies have called for India, which imports arms from Russia, to condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin in stronger terms, and US President Joe Biden earlier this week told Modi that buying more oil from Russia was not in India's interest.

British Trade Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan also said last month Britain was very disappointed with India's stance. However, Johnson's office made no direct reference to the conflict, although a source said it was expected Ukraine would be discussed "among other geopolitical issues".

Johnson said India, as a major economic power, was a highly valued strategic partner.

"As we face threats to our peace and prosperity from autocratic states, it is vital that democracies and friends stick together," he said in a statement.

Last May, the two countries announced a partnership involving more than 530 million pounds of Indian investment into Britain, and Downing Street said Johnson was expected to announce further major investment and new collaboration on cutting-edge science, health and technology.

 

Killing of Muammar Gaddafi: Pepping into the history

A debate is going on in Pakistan; did United States play any role in the toppling of Imran Khan Government? All the arguments being put forward conclude, US didn’t play any role. However, analysts aware of the tactics of the United States are hesitant in accepting these clarifications.

This evening I revisited my blog “Chris Stevens a diplomat or spy” written as back as on September 12, 2012. My point was, killing of the US Ambassador in Libya and his portrayal as friend of ‘freedom’ fighters raises a question, was he a diplomat or an ace CIA operator? In the recent past many countries have been alleging that spies have become an integral part of the US diplomatic core.

I also managed to pick the following lines from Wikipedia on the killing of Muammar Gaddafi, the deposed leader of Libya.

He was captured and killed on October 20, 2011 after the Battle of Sirte. Gaddafi was found west of Sirte after his convoys were attacked by NATO aircraft. He was then captured by National Transitional Council (NTC) forces and was killed shortly afterwards.

The NTC initially claimed Gaddafi died from injuries sustained in a shootout when loyalist forces attempted to free him, although a graphic video of his last moments shows rebel fighters beating him and one of them sodomizing him with a bayonet before he was shot several times.

The killing of Gaddafi was criticized as a violation of international law. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch called for an independent autopsy and an investigation into how Gaddafi died.

Moments after it was reported that Gaddafi was killed, Fox News published an article titled "US Drone Involved in Final Qaddafi Strike, as Obama Heralds Regime's 'End'", noting that a US Predator drone was involved in the airstrike on Gaddafi's convoy in the moments before his death. An anonymous US official subsequently described their policy in hindsight as "leading from behind".

Because Libyan rebels had consistently told American government officials that they did not want overt foreign military assistance in toppling Gaddafi, covert military assistance was used (including arms shipments to opposition). The plan following Gaddafi's death was to immediately begin flowing humanitarian assistance to eastern Libya and later western Libya, as the symbolism would be critically important. US sources stressed it as important that they would "not allow Turkey, Italy and others to steal a march on it".

Many Western leaders and foreign ministers in Australia, Canada, the European Union, and the United States made statements hailing Gaddafi's death as a positive development for Libya. The city-state of Vatican City responded to the event by declaring it recognized the National Transitional Council as Libya's legitimate government. World leaders such as Italy's prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, and Australian prime minister Julia Gillard suggested that the death of Gaddafi meant the Libyan Civil War was over. Some officials, such as UK foreign secretary William Hague, expressed disappointment that Gaddafi was not brought back alive and allowed to stand trial. In a candid moment while filming a TV interview, Hillary Clinton, at the time the United States' secretary of state, laughingly stated "We came. We saw. He died." — a variant of a Roman phrase alluding to the swift military victory.

Reactions from the governments of countries including Cuba, Russia, Venezuela, and Nicaragua were negative. Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez described the former Libyan leader's death as an "assassination" and an "outrage", and Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega later called Gaddafi's killing a "crime" during his inauguration on 10 January 2012. Government officials and politicians in Iran showed considerably diverse reactions

The video reportedly left a particularly strong and consequential impression on Russian head of state Vladimir Putin. A senior diplomat who had served at the US embassy in Moscow under the Obama administration reportedly claimed that "Putin had been appalled by Gaddafi's fate" to the extent that "Putin had watched a video of Gaddafi’s savage death three times, a video that shows him being sodomised with a bayonet."

Referring to the US coalition's lobbying efforts for the airstrikes at the United Nations, the US diplomat was quoted as saying that a later US intelligence assessment concluded that "Putin blamed himself for letting Gaddafi go, for not playing a strong role behind the scenes" and that the video may have even influenced Putin's decision to support Syrian president Bashar al-Assad during the Syrian Civil War since "Putin believed that unless he got engaged Bashar would suffer the same fate – mutilated – and he'd see the destruction of his allies in Syria."

Putin also lashed out at the US for what he perceived as the illegal killing of Gaddafi and asked "They showed to the whole world how he (Gaddafi) was killed; there was blood all over. Is that what they call a democracy?"