Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Monday 2 October 2023

UN Security Council condemns Israeli violations

At a UN Security Council session on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, many representatives of the 15 member states criticized Israeli violations against Palestinians, with notably strong criticism from Russia and China. 

Kicking off the session, Tor Wennesland, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, spoke via a video conference and updated the meeting with his latest report for the period June 15 to September 19, 2023. 

The senior UN official reiterated to the Security Council the Secretary-General’s appeal for an end to the occupation and a resolution of the conflict as members echoed those calls and underlined a need to return to peace negotiations.

Wennesland pointed to the ongoing expansion of Israeli settlements, demolition of Palestinian homes, daily Israeli violence and continued inflammatory rhetoric by the Israeli cabinet.

He reported the latest settlement activity by Israel is advancing plans for 6,300 settler units in the occupied West Bank, and approximately 3,580 settler units in occupied eastern al-Quds (East Jerusalem), pointing to the Israeli administrative actions that likely expedited settlement expansion.  

Israeli authorities, citing a lack of Israeli-issued building permits, which are almost impossible for Palestinians to obtain, demolished, seized or forced people to demolish 238 structures, including 32 donor-funded ones, displacing 183 people, including 46 women and 91 children. 

Alarmingly, 59 schools, serving around 6,500 Palestinian students, are at risk of demolition to make way for Israeli settlers. 

“In a continuing trend, many Palestinians, including children, left from their communities citing violence by settlers and shrinking grazing land,” he also warned.

Wennesland noted that during this period, Israeli forces killed at least 68 Palestinians, including 18 children. 
Ten Israelis were also left dead by Palestinians in attacks and other incidents, the UN special coordinator added.  

Experts argue that Palestinians have a legitimate right enshrined under international law to wage retaliatory operations and resistance in the face of the brutal military occupation and ethnic cleansing campaign. 

Israeli forces’ 1,042 search-and-arrest operations in the West Bank have resulted in the arrest of 1,504 Palestinians, including 88 children, he added, highlighting that the regime currently holds 1,264 Palestinians in administrative detention - the highest number in over a decade. 

Wennesland also provided details on the urgent funding needs of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and the World Food Program (WFP).

In the ensuing discussion, council members stressed that the expanding Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory are a violation of international law and must cease.

Some representatives of states mostly allied to Israel also voiced concern about the ongoing violence and lack of any political progress, calling on all parties to exercise maximum restraint and take steps to de-escalate tensions.

Vasily Nebenzya of the Russian Federation recalled Israel's increasing steps to create irreversible facts on the ground and said that the ongoing explosive situation is a direct result of aggressive Israeli abuses in the occupied Palestinian territories. 

The current Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN warned against the legalization of settlement outposts and the violation of the status quo of the holy sites of occupied al-Quds (Jerusalem). 

Referring to Israel’s plan to increase the number of Israelis in the north of the occupied West Bank from 170,000 people to 1 million by 2050, with US$200 million allocated for that, Nebenzya said it goes against the relevant Security Council decisions and is contrary to international law.  
“The increase in violence against Palestinian minors and the demolition of educational institutions, including those built with donor funds, are of particular concern,” Nebenzia said, adding that the United States continues to promote Arab-Israeli normalization, circumventing the logic of the Arab Peace Initiative.  

“Russia is committed to the creation of a Palestinian State within the 1967 borders with occupied al-Quds (East Jerusalem) as its capital,” he stated.

Several diplomats proposed ways to enhance efforts in resolving the conflict, with China’s envoy in particular calling for higher priority to be given to an international peace conference. 
Beijing has been leading the calls for an international peace conference to end the suffering of Palestinians. 

China has been much more diplomatically involved in Palestinian affairs since Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted his Palestinian counterpart Mahmoud Abbas for a four-day state visit to Beijing in June. 

China's UN representative, Geng Shuang, also voiced support for President Abbas’ call for the Security Council to dispatch a mission to Palestine in due course. 

He urged the cessation of all settlement activities, unilateral actions to change the status quo in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, and escalation of settler violence. 

Geng also called on the "occupying power" to remove unreasonable restrictions on the movement of persons, goods and land use, and to lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip as soon as possible.

Brazil’s representative pointed out that the Security Council has become unresponsive to the Palestinians’ plight, stressing that the 15-member body must reflect on its role in paving the way for direct negotiations.  

“Sitting on our hands while the situation unravels is short-sighted and dangerous,” Sergio Franca Danese warned.

The Brazilian ambassador also recalled that his country’s president highlighted the overdue establishment of a Palestinian state as an example of longstanding unresolved disputes lingering on while new threats emerge.

Brazil recognized the State of Palestine in 2010. 

Pointing out that the Council has become unresponsive to the Palestinians’ plights, he stressed that "this must change".

The Brazilian diplomat called on Israel to curb settler violence and condemned any action aimed at altering the status quo of the holy sites. 
Furthermore, Danese highlighted the importance of fostering the Palestinian economy, addressing governance challenges and respecting human rights, announcing that Brazil will enhance its contributions to projects in those areas.

Gabon’s representative also called for the lifting of the Gaza blockade in line with Security Council resolution 1860 (2009), noting that Palestinian territories face budgetary constraints because of restrictions on freedom of movement and trade.

Vanessa Frazier of Malta condemned “episodes of settler violence which have terrorized Palestinian communities”. 

Japan’s representative was among the speakers who voiced support for UNRWA, underlining Tokyo's contribution of over US$40 million to the program. He urged Member States to make sure that UNRWA maintains its core services for Palestinian refugees.

Ambassador Ishikane Kimishiro also noted that lack of political progress is jeopardizing peace and security in the region. He also echoed other members' demands for Israel to immediately cease settlement activities. 

Ghana's Felix Akom Nyarku, referring to the increasing acts of settler violence, stressed that the destruction of infrastructure and properties in both the occupied Palestinian territories and in occupied al-Quds dangerously imperils the viability of peace.

He called on the international community to provide short-term investments to help the Palestinian Authority improve people’s access to education, health care, and employment as well as repair basic infrastructure and strengthen fiscal stability.
Andres Efren Montalvo Sosa of Ecuador highlighted that 2023 marks the most violent year in the region since 2005 (for Palestinians) and voiced concern about the increasing number of victims, expanding settlements, and daily violence.  

Western states, including the United States, the United Kingdom and France also made similar calls on Israel to cease its settlement activity, but critics say these statements cannot be taken at face value.

Much of the machinery, including bulldozers, with which the settlements are expanded on Palestinian land, are bought from the West, in a similar manner to how annual US military aid to Israel contributes to the killing of Palestinian women and children.

This comes as the Detainees and Ex-Detainees Affairs Commission released new data on Thursday showing that Israel has arrested more than 135,000 Palestinians since the outbreak of the al-Aqsa Intifada (Second Intifada) in 2000.

The commission said that these arrests affected all classes of Palestinian society, including children, women, and the elderly.
Nearly 21,000 Palestinian children have been arrested since 2000. 
In addition, half of the Legislative Council members, a number of ministers, hundreds of academics, journalists, and workers in civil society organizations and international institutions have been detained. 
Nobody has been spared by the regime.
The report also highlighted that more than 2,600 Palestinian girls and women were arrested by the regime's forces, including four women who gave birth in prison under harsh and difficult conditions.
 

 

Friday 29 September 2023

US oil reserves plunge to a 40 year low

The Biden administration has been draining the strategic petroleum reserves since the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022 to cap energy prices. At present the super power faces a double edged sword because its oil reserves have plunged to a 40-year low and global crude prices hover around US$100/barrel.

Reportedly, there has been a steep drop in US strategic petroleum reserves. The plunge in oil stocks highlights the mounting risks to US energy security. Low domestic reserves could increase reliance on imports, potentially making it more vulnerable to supply disruptions and price volatility in the global oil market.

The international crude benchmark has charged upward in recent months, jumping almost 30% since late May this year.

Oil prices have been climbing as top global producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, extend production cuts announced earlier this year in a bid to maintain price stability.

After the Ukraine war broke out in early 2022, the US government has used its Strategist Petroleum Reserve as its biggest buffer against global energy-price volatility.

Last year, it had released 180 million barrels from the SPR to hedge against expensive oil prices, and cool decades-high inflation.

While the Biden administration has been planning to replenish the SPR, the amount of barrels left in the reserve is currently less than half of the all-time highs reached in 2010.

 

Saturday 23 September 2023

Tattered Western Order

The great power competition between the United States and China is in full swing. Both the countries are embroiled in major issues of international affairs, and none of the international issues remains immune to their influence. 

Trade war, ideational war, and forging alliances are new forms of strategies crafted by Washington and Beijing. Arguably, the world no longer solely is dominated by the West materially and ideationally. The material and ideational decline by and large is contributing to enfeebling the Western hegemony.

The democratic crises in the West and the rise of China in terms of economy, becoming the world’s largest export market, and rapid rise in technology caused a great deal of consternation for the West. The deeply embedded crisis in the Western-led liberal order, ostensibly, leaves a vacuum for China.

The old Western-led liberal order looks more troubled today than at any time since the 1930s. 

Over a decade, Western free societies endured polarization, corruption, populism, inequality, and illiberal threats to the rule of law. The former US president Donald Trump's rhetoric of “America First” was not only symptomatic of attacks on liberal internationalism but also challenged US exceptionalism.

An exclusionary approach of Trump created a deep rift in international politics. The US exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and threat of the World Health Organization (WHO) astonished many experts. 

Joseph Nye accurately assessed Trump’s self-destructive approach and argues “I am not worried by the rise of China I am more worried by the rise of Trump” His populism, reactionary nationalism, an assault on the rule of law and openness of US society badly tarnished the American image.

Anne-Marie Slaughter states “Four years of erratic, personality-driven leadership in the United States under President Donald Trump have left the liberal order in tatters”. 

To improve the tarnished image of the US, the incumbent president Joe Biden promised to “rebuild the nation, revitalizing our democracy, and winning the future for America”.

In competition with China, the US must rebuild the social purpose of liberal democracy at home and improve the damaged image of liberal democracy abroad. The work appears to be a daunting task for the Biden administration to improve its triple crises, crisis of democracy, crisis of leadership, and crisis of multilateralism. 

The US is extremely likely to weaponize ideology in its strategic rivalry vis-à-vis China. The battle of democracy vs. autocracy will gain further momentum. Biden advises his countrymen “I predict to you your children or grandchildren are going to be doing their doctoral thesis on the issue of who succeeded, autocracy or democracy, because that is what is at stake”.

The relative rise of China in terms of economy and changing distribution of global wealth in parity between the West and East would go in favour of the East in the coming decades. The diffusion of power and transfer of global wealth will make the hegemonic decline of the West irreversible. 

The Chinese vision, a community of shared future for mankind first emerged in 2011 as a rhetorical slogan in Chinese diplomacy gained content and substance. The phrase in October 2017 after the 19th National Congress was incorporated into the Constitution of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and subsequently into the Chinese Constitution in March 2018.  

A community of shared future for mankind is aimed at building an inclusive, open, clean and beautiful world contributing to lasting peace, common prosperity and universal security, providing instructive answers to addressing the fragmentation and turbulence in international politics. China has actively advocated the phrase in public diplomacy. The Chinese vision was accepted in different UN resolutions as far as the peace and security of the world are concerned.

To be fair, the Chinese vision would confront innumerable challenges in a politically divided world community. Nadège Rolland terms the Chinese vision “looks more like a list of what Beijing advocates for its own needs, security, and position than an innovative contribution for the future of the world”.

Meanwhile, China initiated the Global Civilizational Initiative GCI. The initiative is believed to have been promoting diversity, plurality and dignity among nations challenging the idea's imposition and discouraging the exploitation of communities and resources that will prove instrumental for diversity, mutual understanding, and the world's economic growth.

China under GCI is trying to undermine Western democracy which is coupled with populism, polarization, racism and xenophobia. The contemporary world is going through tremendous changes, power is shifting from the West to the East. 

The Western dominance in terms of material and ideational seems to be declining. The Saudi-Iran détente brokered by China was a momentous occasion in Middle Eastern politics that caused a huge setback to the US interest. The inclusion of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran Egypt, Ethiopia and Argentina in BRICS would cement China’s ideational, and material strength vis-à-vis the US. 

The prevailing battle of democracy vs. autocracy will further accelerate. The United States promotes Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Quad comprised the democratic countries like the US, India, Japan and Australia in a bid to contain China.

The Ukraine crisis has brought China and Russia closer together. The US domestically and internationally faces dual challenges in the projection of democracy. Domestic crises such as populism, racism, and xenophobia pose severe threats to democracy. In the international arena, China and Russia are causing significant obstacles in the advancement of US democracy.     

 

Friday 8 September 2023

Bangladesh going to be used as battleground of big powers, says Fakhrul

According to The Bangladesh Chronicle, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir fears that Bangladesh was going to be used as a field in the fight of the big powers to establish their supremacy only because of the government’s imprudent diplomacy.

Speaking at a rally, he also voiced concern over Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s comment that the United States and its allies are trying to promote their interests in the South Asia region by using the Indo-Pacific strategy with their goal of countering China and Isolate Russia.

“What the Russian foreign minister said after arriving here has clearly manifested that Bangladesh is going to be used as a field in the sphere of influence of the big powers in their struggle for hegemony. It’s very alarming,” the BNP leader said.

He alleged that the Awami League government is completely responsible for creating such a situation and inviting danger for the nation. “They, the government, are making irresponsible statements and conducting their diplomacy imprudently to push Bangladesh to such a dire situation.”

Jatiyatabadi Mohila Dal brought out a rally in front of BNP’s Nayapaltan central office, marking its 45th funding anniversary. BNP founder Ziaur Rahman formed Mahila Dal, the female wing of the party, on September 09, 1978.

Lavrov arrived in Dhaka on a two-day visit and held a bilateral meeting with Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen.

 

Wednesday 6 September 2023

Pakistan Victim of Geopolitics

I am pleased to share one of my articles published in Eurasia Review on December 27, 2012. Despite lapse of more than a decade, many of the assertions seem most current as Pakistan continue to suffer from unabated interference of the super powers. 

Since independence Pakistan has remained the focus of global and regional powers. The country is termed a natural corridor for trade ‑ including energy products ‑ gateway to Central Asia and landlocked Afghanistan.

There is a perception that often regimes are installed and toppled in Pakistan by the super powers to achieve their vested interest. This is evident from cold war era to occupation of Afghanistan and from love and hate relationship with India to creation of Taliban (phantom now having many offspring).

At present Pakistan is facing extremely volatile situation, which has become a threat for its own existence. Fighting a proxy war for United States in Afghanistan for nearly four decade has completely destroyed the economic and social fabric of the country. Pakistan is suffering from the influx of foreign militant groups getting funds and arms from different global operators.

Analysts say over the years Pakistan has been towing foreign and military policy of the United States, which has often offended USSR, China, India and Iran. Therefore, one needs to analyze Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan, India and Iran, enjoying common borders with the country. It may not be wrong to say that at present Pakistan doesn’t enjoy cordial relation with none of these countries.

Pakistan helped Afghans in averting USSR attack. After the pullout of USSR forces Afghanistan plunged into civil war. It was often alleged that Pushtoons were supported by Pakistan and Northern Alliance was highly annoyed. After 9/11 Pakistan was made to fight Taliban under the US dictate. As the time for withdrawal of Nato forces is getting closer Pakistan once again faces a precarious position.

When British Raj left the subcontinent in 1947 it left a thorn, Kashmir. Since independence India and Pakistan have been living in constant state of war, spending billions of dollars annually on the purchase of conventional as well as non-conventional arms and have also attained the status of atomic powers. However, both the countries suffer from extreme poverty. There seems no probability of reconciliation between the two countries because of presence of hawks on both the sides. Even the trade relations could not be normalized due to Kashmir dispute as Hindus are not ready for another division of Hindustan on the basis of religion.

Pakistan and Iran have enjoyed the best time till toppling of Shah’s rule as both the countries were under the US influence. Iran has been persistently enduring economic sanctions for more than three decades after the Islamic revolution. Pakistan is suffering from severe energy crisis but not allowed to construct Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline or even buy Iranian crude oil under food for oil program. Iran has often complaint that certain outfits, most notorious being Jundullah, having its base in Balochistan province of Pakistan, are involved in cross border terrorism.

Pakistan also faces a difficult situation when Saudi Arabia, under the US pressure asks it to do or not to do certain things. One such example is Saudi Arabia promising to meet Pakistan’s oil requirement if it opts not to buy Iranian oil. There are also allegations and counter allegations that Saudi Arabia and Iran are supporting Sunni and Shia factions in Pakistan. This point is being highlighted by referring to sectarian killings. However, Pakistanis have no doubt that killing is being done by those who are neither Sunni nor Shia. This point got credence when it was discovered that Taliban involved in attack on Peshawar airbase had tattoos on their bodies.

Till today, Pakistan offers the shortest and cost effective route to landlocked Afghanistan, leading to Central Asian countries. Gwadar deep seaport has been constructed in Balochistan province with the financial and technical assistance of China. India often raises its concerns on Chinese presence along Pakistan’s coastal belt. However, India is not only constructing Chabahar port in Iran but also road and rail links up to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

Pakistanis completely fail to understand the duality of US policy. India was asked to withdraw itself from Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project and also rewarded nuclear technology in return. On top of that it has not been stopped from building port and supporting infrastructure in Iran. Some experts say all this is being done to construct an alternate route once the objective of creation of greater Balochistan is achieved. This new country will be created taking one slice each from Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The level of US pressure on Pakistan can also be gauged from the fact that President, Asif Ali Zardari, on the eleventh hour, cancelled his visit to Tehran and went straight to UK. The new date of his visit to Iran has not been announced as yet. This reminds Pakistani’s of a similar cancelled visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and he instead went to United States.

It is also on record that Chinese experts working in Pakistan have often come under attack to make them leave Pakistan. Chinese experts working on Gwadar and Thar coal projects have been repeatedly attacked. At one stage it was feared that Chinese will completely withdraw their support for Thar coal mining and power plant.

China has also complaints that some extremist Muslim groups are trying to create disturbance in one of its province bordering with Pakistan. It seems these attempts are made to disrupt trade being done through this land route.

 

 

Crude oil prices take a dip despite supply cut by Saudi Arabia and Russia

Oil prices reversed course on Wednesday after rising over 1one percent in the previous session, on a firmer dollar and as investors shrugged off jitters arising from supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia.

"The reason the market gave back half of the gains and is listless this morning, is because within the language of the joint announcement there is a caveat that these cuts will be reviewed on a monthly basis," said John Evans of oil broker PVM.

"This flexibility add-in allows for wiggle room, but the market smells a taper," he said, citing conditions like anti-inflation battles in the United States and other countries, whether crude prices near US$100 a barrel, or the effect on Saudi oil revenues.

Saudi Arabia and Russia on Tuesday extended their voluntary oil cuts to the end of the year 2023. While Saudi Arabia relinquished one million barrels per day (bpd), Russia agreed to cut 300,000 bpd. These are on top of the April cut agreed by several OPEC Plus members till end 2024.

Both countries will review their decisions monthly to consider deepening cuts or raising output depending on market conditions.

The rising oil prices could be restrained when crude demand dips as US refineries enter their September-October maintenance period, said Sugandha Sachdeva of Acme Investment Advisors.

Iranian crude supply rises could also hobble price gains. "Iran is producing close to 3.1 million bpd and plans to pump around 3.4 million bpd," ING Economics analysts noted.

 

Tuesday 5 September 2023

Saudi Arabia, Russia extend production cuts

According to Reuters, Oil prices surged about 2% on Tuesday to their highest since November last year, after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their voluntary supply cuts to the end of the year 2023, worrying investors about potential shortages during peak winter demand.

Brent crude futures rose by US$1.32, or about 1.5%, to US$90.32 a barrel by 1739 GMT. The global benchmark, used to price over three-quarters of the world's traded oil, rose to US$91.15 per barrel earlier in the session, its highest since November 17, 2022.

US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures rose US$1.49, or about 1.7%, to US$87.04 a barrel, after also hitting a 10-month high of US$88.07 earlier in the session.

Investors had expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend voluntary cuts into October, but the three-month extension was unexpected.

"Certainly the market was caught off-guard by the aggressiveness of their stance," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Both Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would review the supply cuts monthly, and could modify them depending on market conditions.

"With the production cut extended, we anticipate a market deficit of more than 1.5 million barrels per day in 4Q23," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo wrote in a note to clients. UBS now expects Brent crude to rise to US$95 a barrel by end 2023.

Reflecting concerns about the short-term market supply, front month Brent and WTI contracts were also trading at their steepest premium since November 2022 to later-dated prices. This structure, called backwardation, indicates tightening supply for prompt deliveries.

Also supporting oil prices on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs said it now sees the probability of a US recession starting in the next 12 months at 15%, down from an earlier forecast of 20%.

Along with the Saudi supply cuts, which began in July, prospects of the US economy avoiding a hard recession have helped lift oil demand and prices in recent months.

Both Brent and WTI futures have gained more than 20% since the end of June this year.

 

 

Friday 1 September 2023

Expansion of BRICS: What are the economic implications?

In late August it was announced that from 2024, the BRICS—a political grouping that currently comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—will admit six new members: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Argentina, the UAE and Ethiopia.

The eleven countries combined represent around 45% of the planet’s population, over 40% of world oil production and roughly a third of global GDP. The BRICS average economic growth rate is likely to be notably above the global average. That said, the G7’s GDP is still substantially larger at market prices, and should remain so over the medium term.

The group’s key economic institution, the New Development Bank (NDB), is still tiny in comparison to other multilateral lenders. The Bank has financed projects worth around US$33 billion since 2015; in contrast, the World Bank alone committed around US$50 billion each year over the same period.

Other overarching economic structures are lacking, and a BRICS trade deal seems difficult to fathom given members’ vastly different stages of development and policy priorities.

Internal geopolitical disputes could further complicate economic rapprochement between members: Egypt and Ethiopia are at loggerheads over a dam on the Nile River, relations between Iran and its Gulf neighbors are still strained, and there are tensions between India and China over their shared Himalayan border and Indian restrictions on Chinese imports and technology.

The expansion of the BRICS could encourage greater political overtures and financial generosity from the G7 towards emerging markets going forward; the G20 summit later this year will be key to watch, with the UN calling on US$500 billion of annual financing from wealthy nations.

More countries are likely to join the BRICS in the coming years, as current members—particularly China and Russia—look to bolster an alternative to the G7-led world order.

BRICS members will increasingly conduct intra-member trade in local currencies to reduce dependence on the dollar, with the yuan and rupee set to be major beneficiaries.

That said, the US dollar will remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future - incumbency, dollar liquidity, the strength of the US economy, and the reliability of the US government as a debt issuer are key advantages. As for the BRICS grouping as a whole, it is likely to remain more of a political than an economic force.

On the BRICS’ prospects, EIU analysts said, “The BRICS group will not become a solid construction, regardless of how many bricks are added to the wall, and it will continue to face internal tensions and divisions. However, the expansion will bolster its geopolitical significance and its combined economic power, and the organization will continue to evolve. The relatively trouble-free and productive BRICS summit will enhance South Africa’s standing without damaging its relations with key Western partners.”

On the future of the dollar, ING analysts said, “Until international issuers and investors are happy to issue and hold international debt in non-dollar currencies – and the take-up of CNY Panda bonds has been very slow indeed – we suspect this will be a decade-long progression to a multi-polar world, a world in which perhaps the dollar, the euro and the renminbi become the dominant currencies in the Americas, Europe and Asia respectively.”

Courtesy: Focus Economics

Wednesday 30 August 2023

PetroChina posts record profit

State-owned energy giant PetroChina, reported a record-high net profit for the first half of the year 2023, driven by increased oil and gas output and resurgent refined fuel sales.

Net profit attributable to shareholders was 85.3 billion yuan or US$11.70 billion, up 4.5% for the same period last year, according to a filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Wednesday.

Total revenue was down 8.3% to 1.48 trillion yuan, due to a sustained fall in global oil prices after an initial spike in the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The company reported realized crude oil prices of US$74.15 per barrel, having slid 21.7% on the average for the same period last year.

However, PetroChina's total crude oil and natural gas equivalent output was 893.8 million barrels, representing a 5.8% increase on last year, supporting a 3.7% increase in operating profit for the group's upstream segment.

Domestic crude output rose 1.2%, whilst the development of key projects in Central Asia and the Middle East saw overseas crude production leap 27.8% over the period.

Total domestic refinery throughput for the first half was 673 million barrels, a 12.6% increase as compared to last year when extensive COVID-19 lockdowns hammered demand for refined fuel products in the country.

The group previously announced to raise crude throughput to 1.29 billion barrels this year, up 6.6% from 2022.

Operating profit from the group's sales segment jumped 28.4% as compared to last year. Total sales volume of gasoline, kerosene and diesel increased 12.9% to 80.7 million metric tons, with domestic sales accounting for around 74% of this.

While domestic demand for transport fuels such as kerosene and gasoline has rebounded with the removal of travel restrictions, the group saw weaker earnings from petrochemical products such as polypropylene, amid a glut of domestic supply.

Capex for the first half was 85.1 billion yuan, down 7.8% as compared to last year. PetroChina had previously set a capex target of 243.5 billion yuan for 2023, which would represent an 11% drop as compared to last year.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, the group stated it will further deepen cooperation in overseas oil and gas markets, actively acquire large-scale and high-quality projects and continuously optimize asset structure.

 

 


Tuesday 29 August 2023

European energy crisis may be back soon

According to the Financial Trend Forecaster, European natural gas prices soared almost 40% on the risk of a global liquefied natural gas shortage. European wholesale power prices remain below the record highs of the energy crisis but have steadily climbed as the volatility in the international commodity spectrum underscores the fragility of the European energy system.

Unfortunately, the European Union bureaucrats declared the end of the energy crisis as if it were the result of decisive policy action, but the reality is that the energy problem in the EU was only diminished by purely external factors: a very mild winter and the decline in global commodity prices due to the central bank rate hikes. Thus, the energy crisis remains, and the problems of security of supply and affordability of the system persist.

The European Union’s dependency on Russian gas has not been solved; it has only been disguised by a massive increase in dependency on coal (lignite) in the case of Germany and expensive liquefied natural gas imported from the rest of the world.

At the end of 2022, Germany’s energy mix was the clearest example of its energy policy failure. Hard coal and lignite accounted for 31.2%, natural gas 13.8%, and mineral oil 0.8%, with nuclear at 6.0%. After almost 200 billion euros in renewable subsidies, Germany needs more coal and imported natural gas.

What did the government decide after facing the mistake of shutting down almost all its nuclear fleet? Double down and continue with the process of closing the remaining ones. No wonder Germany is in recession. Its industrial model requires abundant and affordable energy, and the different governments have made the cost of energy uncompetitive.

Same is the problem with Spain, the government decided to implement an “Iberian exception” that eliminates the cost of gas from the wholesale power price only to charge it back to consumers as a surcharge in the bill. The result is Spain has the fifth highest electricity bill in Europe, which sent hundreds of millions of euros to France and Portugal that purchased the subsidized energy while the Spanish consumer paid the bill to natural gas producers, and its imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) soared, but the government tried to convince citizens that LNG from Novatek is not Russian gas because it is not a pipeline Gazprom supply, even when the supplier is a leading Russian energy multinational.

Even worse, the consumers have not seen the improvement in commodities in their bills. If we look at the latest reported Eurostat figures of household electricity prices, these increased in all but two EU Member States in the second half of 2022, compared with the second half of 2021, just as commodities slumped in international markets.

The average for the EU stands at 252 euros per MWh and 261 euros per MWh for the euro area. This is 20% to 30% higher than the average residential electricity rate in the United States, according to data from Energy Sage.

The European energy crisis was not solved. It was disguised thanks to a mild winter and the slowdown in coal and gas imports from China. European governments continue to place all their bets on a misguided energy transition that ignores security of supply and competitiveness and will make the EU depend on China for rare earths and metals as well as the US and OPEC for commodities.

The European Union should have abandoned ideological decisions and allowed technology, competition, and industry to provide the optimal solution that delivers a competitive and secure supply of energy.

Deciding to forbid the development of domestic resources and focus on intermittent and volatile sources of energy before the battery technology is fully operational is an enormous mistake that condemns the European Union to suffer higher costs and lower growth. Environmental policies must be considered from a global perspective.

The EU accounts for less than 10% of global emissions but almost 100% of the cost. It needs to focus on competitiveness, security of supply, and respect for the environment from an industrial perspective. Ignoring the importance of making the most of nuclear, hydroelectric, gas, and all other available sources is dangerous.

In China or the United States, affordability, security of supply, and competitiveness are the drivers of energy policy.

In Europe, it is a misguided view of “not in my backyard” that is making the continent more dependent on others, not less. Subsidies are delaying the necessary development of intermittent and volatile energy sources because policymakers reject the importance of creative destruction and competition as driving forces of progress. Interventionism is not delivering better or cheaper energy; it is making the European Union lose in the technology and energy security race.

Thursday 24 August 2023

United States seeking military cooperation with Bangladesh

A two-day bilateral dialogue between Bangladesh and the United States began in Dhaka today with an aim to discuss cooperation on a myriad of defence topics. The aim of this dialogue is to create an opportunity for wide-ranging discussions on military cooperation between the two countries, said ISPR.

The dialogue will officially end on August 24.

Director General at the Bangladesh Armed Forces Division Brig Gen Husain Muhammad Masihur Rahman is leading the Bangladesh side while Director of Strategic Planning and Policy of the US Indo-Pacific Command Brig Gen Thomas J James is leading the US delegation.

Senior officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Armed Forces Division, Border Guard Bangladesh, and Bangladesh Coast Guard were present on behalf of Bangladesh.

 “The United States and Bangladesh share a vision to ensure the Indo-Pacific region is free, open, peaceful, and secure. In pursuit of these mutual objectives, the Bangladesh Armed Forces Division and Indo-Pacific Command will conduct the bilateral defence dialogue in Dhaka,” US Embassy Spokesperson Bryan Schiller said.

This dialogue, he said, will feature senior officers and civilians from the US and Bangladeshi militaries.

“They will discuss military education, defence articles, and upcoming military exercises, including next year’s disaster response exercise and exchange,” said the spokesperson.

This dialogue, he said, is part of a comprehensive relationship between two countries’ defence establishments, which features cooperation on a myriad of defence topics.

The US said they are encouraged that Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific Outlook declares Bangladesh’s vision for a “free, open, peaceful, secure, and inclusive Indo-Pacific for the shared prosperity for all.

The bilateral defence dialogue between Bangladesh and the US started with a joint declaration in 2012. Since then, every year, the dialogue has taken place alternately in Bangladesh and the USA. The 9th defence dialogue was held on 17-18 May 2022 at Honolulu, Hawaii.

The purpose of this dialogue was to facilitate a broad discussion on bilateral defence and military cooperation as a complement to the strategic dialogue.

Over the years, the two countries have enjoyed cordial diplomatic relations and partnered on a wide range of security issues, including border security, maritime security, counterterrorism, peacekeeping, defence trade, and defence institution building.

The two governments continue to work together to advance a shared vision of a free, open, inclusive, peaceful, and secure Indo-Pacific region.

Earlier, the US delegation had a courtesy meeting with Principal Staff Officer (PSO) of the Armed Forces Division Lieutenant General Waker-Uz-Zaman.

 

 


Wednesday 23 August 2023

Can BRICS currency be adopted?

Brazilian President called on Wednesday for the BRICS nations to create a common currency for trade and investment between each other, as a means of reducing their vulnerability to dollar exchange rate fluctuations. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva made the proposal at a BRICS summit in Johannesburg.

Officials and economists have pointed out the difficulties involved in such a project, given the economic, political and geographic disparities between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Brazilian president doesn't believe nations that don't use the dollar should be forced to trade in the currency, and he has also advocated for a common currency in the Mercosur bloc of South American countries.

A BRICS currency increases our payment options and reduces our vulnerabilities, he told the summit's opening plenary session.

South African officials had said a BRICS currency was not on the agenda for the summit.

I n July, India's foreign minister said, "There is no idea of a BRICS currency". Its foreign secretary said before departing for the summit that boosting trade in national currencies would be discussed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the gathering, which he attended via video link, would discuss switching trade between member countries away from the dollar to national currencies.

China has not commented on the idea. President Xi Jinping spoke at the summit of promoting the reform of the international financial and monetary system.

Building a BRICS currency would be a political project, South African central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago told a radio station in July.

"If you want it, you'll have to get a banking union, you'll have to get a fiscal union, you've got to get macroeconomic convergence," Kganyago said.

"Importantly, you need a disciplining mechanism for the countries that fall out of line with it... Plus they will need a common central bank... where does it get located?"

Trade imbalances are also a problem, Herbert Poenisch, a senior fellow at Zhejiang University, wrote in a blog for think-tank OMFIF.

All BRICS member countries have China as their main trading partner and little trade with each other.

BRICS leaders have said they want to use their national currencies more instead of the dollar, which strengthened sharply last year as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and Russia invaded Ukraine, making dollar debt and many imports more expensive.

Russia's sanctions-imposed exile from global financial systems last year also fuelled speculation that non-western allies would shift away from the dollar.

"The objective, irreversible process of de-dollarisation of our economic ties is gaining momentum," Putin told the summit on Tuesday.

The greenback's share of official foreign exchange reserves fell to a 20-year low of 58% in the final quarter of 2022, and 47% when adjusted for exchange rate changes, according to International Monetary Fund data.

The dollar still dominates global trade. It is on one side of almost 90% of global foreign exchange transactions, according to Bank of International Settlements Data.

De-dollarizing would need countless exporters and importers, as well as borrowers, lenders and currency traders across the world, to independently decide to use other currencies.

 

Chinese President calls for BRICS unity

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for unity among his BRICS counterparts at a summit in South Africa on Wednesday as he pushed the case for expanding the grouping to face a global period of turbulence and transformation.

Leaders of the bloc of leading developing nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are meeting in Johannesburg with discussions around establishing a framework and criteria for admitting new members topping the agenda.

While all BRICS members have publicly expressed support for growing the bloc, divisions remain over how much and how quickly.

Bloc heavyweight China has long pushed for expansion and views its deteriorating relations with Washington as well as heightened global tensions resulting from the Ukraine war as adding urgency to the enlargement project.

"The world is undergoing major shifts, division and regrouping ... it has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation," Xi said.

"We, the BRICS countries, should always bear in mind our founding purpose of strengthening ourselves through unity."

BRICS group countries have economies that are vastly different in scale and governments that often seem to have few foreign policy goals in common, complicating decision-making.

The economy of China for example, is more than 40 times larger than South Africa's, Africa's most developed country.

Russia, isolated by the United States and Europe over its invasion of Ukraine, is also pushing to quickly grow BRICS and forge it into a counterweight to the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is wanted under an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes, sees BRICS membership as a way of showing the West he still has friends.

He did not travel to South Africa but used a video address to attack Western powers.

"I want to note that it was the desire to maintain their hegemony in the world, the desire of some countries to maintain this hegemony that led to the severe crisis in Ukraine," he said.

South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday that he and Xi had similar positions on BRICS expansion. But pushback has come from Brazil and India, which have both forged closer ties with the West.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Tuesday rejected the idea the bloc should seek to rival the United States and Group of Seven wealthy economies.

While he is pushing for neighbour Argentina to join, he said any new members would need to meet certain conditions, so the group does not become a "Tower of Babel".

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Wednesday his country, which is wary of Chinese dominance, fully supported expansion.

However, an Indian official familiar with discussions late on Tuesday between the leaders said Modi indicated there have to be ground rules about how it should happen and who can join.

India and China periodically clash over their disputed Himalayan border.

More than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, say South African officials, 22 of whom have formally asked to be admitted.

Details of criteria for joining could be included in a joint declaration due to be finalized on Wednesday.

Beyond the enlargement question, boosting the use of member states' local currencies in trade and financial transactions to lessen dependency of the US dollar is also on the summit agenda.

South African organizers had said there would be no discussions of a common BRICS currency, an idea floated by Brazil as an alternative to dollar-dependence.

At least 15 potential new member countries - including Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Argentina - are under consideration to join the bloc's New Development Bank (NDB), its chief financial officer said on Wednesday.

The NDB, which has long tapped China's capital market for funding, is registering an Indian rupee bond program worth US$2.5 billion over five years, after it issued its first South African rand bond last week.

 

Tuesday 22 August 2023

Iran oil exports exceed 2 million bpd in August

Iran oil exports continue to increase in August, surging above two million barrels per day (bpd) which is their highest since the beginning of the year, Bloomberg reported citing TankerTrackers data.

It was already known that Iran's shipments were surging, but the data for August would represent a marked leg higher if maintained for the remainder of the period. The flow rate for the past 28 days shows shipments running at a rate of 2.1 million barrels a day, the Bloomberg report said.

As reported, TankerTrackers’ satellite images show a new surge in Iran's flows in August amid the reduction in the supplies of other top exporters.

Bloomberg added that the increase in Iran's shipments will boost global supply when Saudi Arabia and Russia curb output.

Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that China’s oil imports from Iran have been soaring in August so that the shipments are expected to reach 1.5 million bpd, the highest since 2013.

Citing estimates from data intelligence firm Kpler, Blomberg put China’s imports of Iranian oil during the January-July 2023 period at 917,000 bpd on average.

Iran has been ramping up oil exports this year as it becomes more geopolitically assertive, with most of the shipments heading to China, Bloomberg said.

In late July, Kpler said that Iran’s oil shipments to China have more than tripled over the past three years despite the US sanctions on the country and the increase in Russia’s shipments to the Asian country.

According to the data analyzing firm, Iranian crude exports to its major trade partner have been hovering around one million bpd in 2023, while the figure was roughly 325,000 bpd in 2020.

Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a recent report titled ‘Oil 2023’ confirmed Iran's daily export of one million barrels of oil to China, saying, “Despite severe financial restrictions, Iran managed to increase its crude oil production by about 140,000 barrels per day in 2022 to an average of 2.5 million barrels per day. It seems that Tehran has maintained its crude sales to China, which has been around one million barrels per day since the third quarter of last year.”

According to official data, Iranian oil production also increased in the current year so that in May the country’s oil output reached 2.9 bpd, 350,000 bpd more than in 2022.

Earlier in April, Bloomberg reported, “Chinese private refineries are buying more Iranian oil despite the rising competition for supplies from Russia.”

“So-called teapots are prioritizing the flows, with Russian supplies getting pricier as mainstream buyers such as state-owned Chinese refiners and Indian processors take a greater share,” the report read.

In March, China’s imports of Iranian crude and condensate jumped 20%MoM to 800,000 barrels a day, and are on track to extend gains in coming months, Emma Li, an analyst with data intelligence firm Vortexa told Bloomberg that month.

While Iranian oil has long been sanctioned by the US, refiners in China have proved to be a consistent outlet.

Most Iranian oil used to go to state-owned refineries but the private refiners in Shandong especially are now running the show, said Homayoun Falakshahi, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler.

 

BRICS no rival to G7 and G20, says Lula

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Tuesday that the BRICS bloc of nations aims to organize the developing Global South and is not meant to rival the United States and the Group of Seven (G7) wealthy economies.

His comments point to a divergence of vision as leaders of the bloc - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - arrived in Johannesburg for a summit that will weigh expanding the group as some members push to forge it into a counterweight to the West.

Heightened global tensions provoked by the Ukraine war and Beijing's growing rivalry with the United States have pushed China and Russia - whose President Vladimir Putin will attend the meeting virtually - to seek to strengthen the BRICS bloc.

Their vision of an expanded BRICS capable of rivaling US and European global dominance has, however, been met with skepticism by some members. And the outcome of the debate over enlargement could determine the future of a bloc long criticized for a lack of cohesion.

"We do not want to be a counterpoint to the G7, G20 or the United States," Brazil's Lula said on Tuesday during a social media broadcast from Johannesburg. "We just want to organize ourselves."

Summit host South Africa welcomed China's Xi Jinping, the leading proponent of enlarging BRICS, for a state visit on Tuesday morning ahead of meetings with the grouping's other leaders planned for later in the day.

"I am confident that the upcoming summit will be an important milestone in the development of the BRICS mechanism," Xi said shortly after his arrival in South Africa.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said during a bilateral meeting with Xi that their two countries had similar views regarding expansion.

"We share your view, President Xi, that BRICS is a vitally important forum which plays an important role in the reform of global governance and in the promotion of multilateralism and cooperation throughout the world," he said.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also attending the August 22 to 24 summit.

Putin, who is wanted under an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, will not travel to South Africa.

Beyond the enlargement question, boosting the use of member states' local currencies is also on the summit agenda. South African organizers, however, say there will be no discussions of a BRICS currency, an idea floated by Brazil earlier this year as an alternative to dollar-dependence.

BRICS remains a disparate group, ranging from China, the world's second biggest economy now grappling with a slowdown, to South Africa, an economic minnow facing a power crisis that's led to daily blackouts.

Russia is being hammered by sanctions over its war in Ukraine is keen to show the West it still has friends.

India, however, has increasingly reached out to the West, as has Brazil under its new leader.

Two members - India and China - have periodically clashed along their disputed border, adding to the challenge of decision-making in a group that relies on consensus.

Expansion has long been a goal of China, which hopes that broader membership will lend clout to a grouping already home to some 40% of the world's population and a quarter of global GDP.

The leaders will hold a mini-retreat and dinner on Tuesday evening where they are likely to discuss a framework and criteria for admitting new countries.

India, which is wary of Chinese dominance and has warned against rushing expansion, has positive intent and an open mind, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said on Monday.

Brazil, meanwhile, is concerned that expanding BRICS will dilute its influence, though Lula reiterated on Tuesday his desire to see neighbour Argentina join the bloc.

While a potential BRICS enlargement remains up in the air, the grouping's pledge to become a champion of the developing world and offer an alternative to a world order dominated by wealthy Western nations is already finding resonance.

Over 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, say South African officials. Of them, nearly two dozen have formally asked to be admitted, with some expected to send delegations to Johannesburg.

 

Saturday 19 August 2023

US proxy war in Ukraine: Keeping Moscow preoccupied to orchestrate moves against China

The United States always wanted to lock Moscow into a costly military quagmire with the goal of weakening Russia, and to this day it openly boasts about all this war is doing to advance US interests.

United States has kept this war going, using Ukrainian bodies as a giant sponge to soak up as many expensive military explosives as possible to drain Russian coffers while advancing US energy interests in Europe. The sole purpose is to keep Moscow preoccupied while the United States orchestrates its next move against China.

Last month The Washington Post’s David Ignatius wrote an article explaining why westerners shouldn’t feel gloomy about how things are going in Ukraine, writing the following about how much this war is doing to benefit US interests overseas.

“Meanwhile, for the United States and its NATO allies, these 18 months of war have been a strategic windfall, at relatively low cost (other than for the Ukrainians). The West’s most reckless antagonist has been rocked. NATO has grown much stronger with the additions of Sweden and Finland. Germany has weaned itself from dependence on Russian energy and, in many ways, rediscovered its sense of values. NATO squabbles make headlines, but overall, this has been a triumphal summer for the alliance.”

Everyone who has been supporting this horrifying proxy war should have that paragraph tattooed on their forehead

Bolton urges Congress to take closer look at cipher

The US Congress should look at the allegedly leaked cipher about ousting of Imran Khan, former prime minister of Pakistan, when it returns from summer recess, said a former US national security adviser John Bolton.

In an interview with VoA broadcasting service, recorded this week, Bolton said he worries about the Biden administration’s foreign policy about South Asia because it’s not clearly defined.

Asked if the language used in the cipher was usual for a State Department official, the former Trump and Bush administrations official said he saw the report published by The Intercept news site and noted that it was about an effort to get Pakistan’s support against Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

“I would be stunned if that’s exactly what they said. It would be remarkable for the State Department, under any administration, but particularly under the Biden administration, to be calling for Imran Khan’s overthrow.”

The purported cipher that the Pakistan Embassy in Washington sent to Islamabad in March last year, contained the embassy’s account of a meeting between US State Department officials, including Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu, and Pakistani envoy Asad Majeed Khan.

It quotes Lu as telling the Pakistani envoy, “I think if the no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister succeeds, all will be forgiven in Washington because the Russia visit is being looked at as a decision by the Prime Minister. Otherwise, I think it will be tough going ahead.”

Bolton said even if the text published by The Intercept was close to being true, it would be a problem. So, I hope that when Congress comes back from summer recess in early September, perhaps they can take a look at that and find out how accurate that report was. 

In reply to another question, Bolton said Biden administration officials don’t know what their strategic imperatives are. And it’s been confused and inarticulate on the situation in Pakistan.

Explaining his position on the current political situation in Pakistan, he said, “I do not agree with Imran khan on everything he has ever said, and he doesn’t agree with me but when the military take it to the point of dismantling a legitimate political party (and) putting … an elected leader like Imran khan in jail for no apparent reason, they are contributing to delegitimizing their own institution.”

Commenting on the demand by some US lawmakers that Washington should raise this issue with Pakistani authorities, Bolton urged the Biden administration to take a clear position before the terrorists, China and Russia take advantage of the situation.

 

Friday 18 August 2023

Saudi crown prince meets Iranian foreign minister

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on Friday in the highest-level talks since the countries reconciled in March after years of bitter rivalry that destabilized the region.

The unscheduled meeting in Jeddah came a day after Amirabdollahian had declared ties between the countries were on the right track as he met his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan.

After the meeting, Iran's semi-official news agency Tasnim reported Abdollahian as saying the de facto Saudi ruler had accepted his invitation to visit Tehran.

The Saudi crown prince has pushed to reorient Saudi foreign policy in recent years amid troubles in its historically close relationship with the United States.

"Discussions were frank, beneficial and productive," Abdollahian said in a social media post after meeting the prince, adding that the countries agree on the security and development of all in the region.

Footage of the meeting on Iranian state media showed Prince Mohammed and Amirabdollahian smiling as they spoke, while Prince Faisal and the Iranian delegation looked on.

Rivalry between Iran's revolutionary, Shi'ite Muslim leaders and Saudi Arabia's Sunni ruling family dominated the Middle East for years as they competed for influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Bahrain amid a wave of sectarian bloodshed.

However, China brokered a rapprochement in March this year leading to a resumption of full diplomatic relations, which Saudi Arabia had broken off in 2016 when protesters attacked its Tehran embassy over Riyadh's execution of a prominent Shi'ite cleric.

Prince Faisal visited Tehran in June and said he hoped Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi would visit the kingdom at the appropriate time.

After years of rivalry, and with some of the main regional arenas for their competition more stable than in previous years, both sides have reason to change tack.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wanted to end political and economic isolation pushed by the United States and saw new relations with Saudi Arabia as a way to do so, Iranian officials have said.

Saudi Arabia had meanwhile lost confidence in United States commitment to shared regional security concerns and wanted to bolster ties with China, which has retained good relations with Iran. This month it succeeded in getting China to attend a diplomatic meeting on Ukraine that Beijing had earlier avoided.

Prince Faisal also spoke by phone with US Secretary General Antony Blinken, with the pair discussing more coordination to boost security and stability in the Middle East region, Saudi state media reported on Friday.

 

 

Saudi Arabia discusses defense cooperation

Saudi Assistant Minister of Defense Eng. Talal Al-Otaibi discussed various aspects of defense cooperation with senior officials of Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran. The discussions were held on the sidelines of the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security.

Eng. Al-Otaibi, headed the delegation of the Saudi Ministry of Defense that participated in the conference. More than 800 delegates from 76 countries and six international organizations took part in the conference.

They included 26 defense ministers and 16 deputy defense ministers and chiefs of general staff in addition to senior defense and security policy makers from various countries.

Delegations from 12 more countries, led by department chiefs, as well as ambassadors and military attaches accredited to Russia also attended.

The conference aimed to discuss modern military challenges and threats, and to enhance the benefit and keep abreast of all that is proposed by decision-makers and experts interested in the fields of politics, defense and security in the world.

On the sidelines of the conference, Assistant Defense Minister Al-Otaibi met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin. During the meeting, they discussed ways to enhance defense cooperation between the two friendly countries.

A number of issues of common concern also figured in the talks.

During the meetings, they reviewed the bilateral relations between the Kingdom and friendly countries in the defense fields, and ways to develop and enhance them.

Al-Otaibi also met with Minister of Defense Li Shangfu, head of the Chinese delegation; Secretary General and Deputy Minister of Defense Hammood Uz Zaman Khan, head of the Pakistani delegation; and Deputy Chief of the General Staff Brig. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, the head of the Iranian delegation.

 

Wednesday 16 August 2023

What is on top of agenda at BRICS upcoming meeting in South Africa?

BRICS leaders are scheduled to meet in South Africa next week to discuss how to turn a loose club of nations accounting for a quarter of the global economy into a geopolitical force that can challenge the West's dominance in world affairs.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces an international arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Ukraine, will not join leaders from Brazil, India, China and South Africa amid rifts over whether to expand the bloc to include dozens of ‘Global South’ nations queuing up to join.

South Africa will host Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the BRICS summit from August 22 to 24.

Spread over the globe and with economies that operate in vastly different ways, the main thing uniting the BRICS is skepticism about a world order they see as serving the interests of the United States and its rich-country allies who promote international norms they enforce but don't always respect.

Few details have emerged about what they plan to discuss, but expansion is expected to be high on the agenda, as some 40 nations have shown interest in joining, either formally or informally, according to South Africa. They include Saudi Arabia, Argentina and Egypt.

China, seeking to expand its geopolitical influence as its tussles with the United States, wants to enlarge BRICS quickly, while Brazil is resisting expansion, fearing the already unwieldy club could see its stature diluted by it.

In a written response to questions by Reuters, China's foreign ministry said, “It supports progress in expanding membership, and welcomes more like-minded partners to join the 'BRICS family' at an early date."

Russia needs friends to counter its diplomatic isolation over Ukraine, and so is keen to bring in new members, as is its most important African ally, South Africa.

In a nod to the bloc's African hosts, the theme of its 15th summit is "BRICS and Africa", emphasizing how the bloc can build ties with a continent increasingly becoming a theatre for competition between world powers.

South Africa's foreign minister Naledi Pandor in a statement last week said BRICS nations wanted to show global leadership in addressing the needs ... of the majority of the world, namely ... development and inclusion of the Global South in multilateral systems, in a veiled swipe at Western dominance.

BRICS nations are keen to project themselves as alternative development partners to the West. China's foreign ministry said BRICS sought to reform global governance systems (to) increase the representation ... of developing countries and emerging markets.

The bloc's New Development Bank (NDB) wants to de-dollarize finance and offer an alternative to the much-criticized Breton Woods institutions.

But it has approved only US$33 billion of loans in nearly a decade -- about a third of the amount the World Bank committed to disbursing just last year -- and has recently been hobbled by sanctions on member Russia.

South African officials say talk of a BRICS currency, mooted by Brazil earlier this year as an alternative to dollar-dependence, is off the table.

With 40% of global population, the BRICS carbon-intensive nations also make up about the same share of greenhouse gas emissions. Officials in Brazil, China and South Africa said climate change may come up but indicated it wouldn't be a priority.

BRICS countries blame rich nations for causing most global warming and want them to take on more of the burden of decarburizing the world's energy supply. China was accused of blocking climate discussions at the G20, which it denied.