US strategy of maintaining strategic stability in Southern Asia

According to a report by United States Institute of Peace, over the past decade, long-standing disputes between the nuclear-armed states of Southern Asia have repeatedly veered into deeper hostility and violence. 

These regional developments reflect and reinforce new and significant geopolitical shifts, starting with the global strategic competition between China and the United States.

In Southern Asia, relations between the United States and Pakistan have frayed even as United States-India and China-Pakistan ties have strengthened. The region now faces deepening and more multifaceted polarization. Global competition adds fuel to regional conflict and reduces options for crisis mediation.

This report reviews the challenges posed by changing strategic circumstances in Southern Asia, assesses a range of US policy options, and presents a set of priority recommendations for US policymakers.

China, India and Pakistan have developed nuclear capabilities as one way to deter conflict with more powerful adversaries: the United States, China, and India, respectively. Each of the states in Southern Asia is expanding its nuclear arsenal and investing in related delivery systems. All aspire to field nuclear triads with assured second-strike capabilities, but China, India, and Pakistan are at very different stages in this process.

In making these investments in national security, each state also threatens its less powerful rivals. The result, a ‘cascading security dilemma’, encourages arms racing, disrupts regional strategic stability, and heightens the risk that crises could cross the nuclear threshold.

In addition to general arms race dynamics, the introduction of new munitions, more capable delivery systems, and potentially more risk-acceptant doctrinal shifts tend, on balance, to exacerbate strategic instability in Southern Asia.

Sophisticated missile defense systems; hypersonic and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) missiles; and tactical, sea-based (surface and submarine), and dual-capable nuclear systems all raise new challenges for crisis management and raise questions about how they might influence the nuclear strategies and doctrines of regional states. 

The potential for conflict between India and Pakistan remains high following the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis. Subsequent diplomacy led to the resumption of a ceasefire along the Line of Control in 2021, but the underlying causes of hostility, including although not limited to the disputed territory of Kashmir, remain.

Moreover, India and Pakistan appear to have drawn lessons from 2019 that increase the likelihood that future crises could escalate in dangerous ways, possibly even to the nuclear threshold.

All told, 2019 showed important shifts in long-standing positions (by India and Pakistan, as well as China and the United States) and a new willingness by all parties to accept greater risk.

Over the past several years, India’s relations with China have also deteriorated markedly. In the summer of 2020, their long-disputed land border saw the most violent clashes in more than four decades. India and China have since pulled forces away from hot conflict but have not found a way back to the pre-2020 status quo.

Both are actively investing in new military capabilities and infrastructure along their inhospitable Himalayan frontier, raising the prospect that future disputes could escalate into even more significant conventional military exchanges.

Nuclear use remains unlikely, but it cannot be ruled out, if only as the unintended consequence of conventional military escalation. India-China border tensions are certain to influence their broader bilateral relationship as well as military investments, both conventional and nuclear.

In addition to worrisome trends in bilateral India-Pakistan and India-China relations, India faces the thorny challenge of managing relations with two hostile neighbors (China and Pakistan) that are increasingly close partners.

Other regional developments, including in Afghanistan, where Taliban rule is likely to create new opportunities for terrorist groups, further threaten strategic stability in Southern Asia.

Ultimately, it is the unpredictable evolution of these dangerous dynamics in combination—India-Pakistan crises, China-India border violence, and resurgent terrorist threats—that should raise concern that inevitable flare-ups could spiral.

The United States has only a limited capacity to influence the behavior of other nuclear-armed states. The overlapping and interconnected rivalries and territorial disputes in Southern Asia further complicate the policy challenge facing Washington.

In particular, US policymakers will need to balance competing strategic priorities as they deepen the strategic partnership with India and deter aggression while taking care to avoid actions that could contribute to a regional arms race, greater instability, or crisis escalation.

That said, the United States has in the past played a significant role in regional crisis prevention and mitigation and continues to have a wide range of policy tools at its disposal.

This report systematically assesses a range of options for resolving, mitigating, or better managing regional disputes; enhancing regional strategic stability through deterrence, reassurance, and other diplomatic or technical means; and improving crisis management tools and practices to reduce the likelihood that any specific crisis escalates past the nuclear threshold.

This assessment is not intended to be a one-time effort. As the United States faces new and evolving circumstances, it should continue to develop policies to address the motives, new capabilities, and processes that expose Southern Asia to a significant risk of nuclear war.

To resolve or mitigate core disputes in Southern Asia that threaten regional peace, the United States should continue to pursue diplomatic initiatives to encourage reduced tensions between India and Pakistan. It should also prepare to seize opportunities for tactical progress, for instance, on ways to remove forces from specific points of friction, such as the Siachen Glacier, even if core disputes prove intractable.

The United States should support long-term regional economic development projects to build material incentives and more vocal constituencies favoring regional peace.

Additionally, the United States should look for new diplomatic opportunities to manage India and China’s border dispute, including in US talks with China as well as coordination with US allies and partners to develop new economic and financial tools aimed at deterring Chinese territorial aggression.

The United States should use its ongoing negotiations with the Taliban and economic and financial leverage with Pakistan to reduce threats to regional stability posed by terrorists based in Afghanistan and Pakistan, in particular by naming anti-Indian terrorists as priority US concerns and targets.

To enhance prospects for strategic stability in Southern Asia, the United States should devote renewed attention to nuclear risk reduction measures, starting with the establishment of a dedicated, secure, and redundant India-Pakistan nuclear hotline, supported by bilateral agreements and practices, and should urge both India and China to enter strategic stability talks with each other.

Additionally, the United States should raise the idea of a new transregional forum on regional and global strategic stability that would include an “N-7” (China, France, India, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to discuss and strengthen stabilizing nuclear norms.

Washington should also deepen its defense cooperation with New Delhi in ways that contribute to India’s capacity for territorial defense and a stabilizing conventional and nuclear deterrent without exacerbating the regional arms race or increasing the likelihood of nuclear crises.

To better manage crises between the nuclear-armed states of Southern Asia, the United States should prepare its policymakers for complex nuclear crisis diplomacy in the region by conducting gaming exercises within the intelligence community; developing a generalized policy playbook for India-Pakistan, India-China, and overlapping India-Pakistan-China crises; and routinely sharing insights from these planning documents with all incoming senior officials in relevant US government agencies, embassies, and bases.

Additionally, Washington should work to improve its indicators and warning for regional crises and prepare to share information publicly and with regional actors to combat disinformation in instances where doing so could prevent or de-escalate a conflict.

It should offer to help New Delhi enhance the resilience of its information and communications channels. It should also coordinate with trusted third parties to better prepare for crisis diplomacy so that they can serve as intermediaries and honest brokers in future crises.

 

Deliberations on payment mechanism in Afghanistan-Pakistan trade

During the first deliberation session on barter trade and other irritants facing Afghanistan-Pakistan trade, members from various relevant trade bodies and Chambers, the house unanimously resolved, “It is better to use banking channels for financial transactions”. 

The barter can be added as an alternative, umpteenth number of countries trade with Afghanistan and use third party payment method via international corresponding banks and face no sanctions and problems from any international agency like FATF.

These countries include CARs, Turkey, South Korea and some Far eastern countries, UAE, some European countries, China and India. The foremost action expected from State Bank of Pakistan is to discuss this with international corresponding and local commercial banks with support of Ministries and OFAC (A US Treasury sub agency) to remove barriers for Pakistan to bring in much needed foreign currency. This has been pending since a year and business community has voiced the issue at all levels.”

Later house deliberated all aspects relating to barter trade mechanism with Afghanistan and agreed that the process shall be developed carefully keeping in view the matters of credibility, integrity, efficiency, legality, government’s role, dispute resolution and arbitration, matters of sales tax refund and duty drawback, readiness of PSW, FBR, Pakistan Customs and where necessary the role of SBP to amend the needed clauses to support barter trade mechanism.

The house suggested that barter trade shall be started on trial basis for 3 months and re-evaluated for its feasibility. The matters of deficit and surplus, starting with zero rated categories like pharma and food items, relaxing and reducing duties on Afghan products to bring competitiveness with other countries like India and identification of 10 or more items initially for barter from both sides to ensure balance of trade were discussed.

To manage payments, it will require escrow account which must have multiple signatories to ensure transparency and formation of check and balance system.

Sales tax refunds and duty drawback are already a big issue in case of trade via land which will enhance in case of barter, to counter this, Jawed Bilwani, President PAJCCI, suggested to process barter trade under “Export Processing Zones” mechanism to make it better organized and easily monitored with less stress for business community.

The legality and framework for this alternate will be worked out and proposed to the Ministry accordingly. Additionally a SRO needs to be finalized prior to ensure the mechanism of Sales tax refund and duty drawbacks without further regulatory requirements else the interest of business community in this arrangement will be lost and a lucrative trading opportunity will not realize the full potential.

 

Barter trade shall only be used as alternate and shall not include products and companies which are already trading in dollars. Use of foreign exchange companies was not well received as it will increase the element of illegal payments and may fall under FATF regulations.

PSW & FBR system must have special module under this category for efficient management and to be linked with PAJCCI to reduce duplication of efforts and paper work while verifying transactions and arranging payments.

Zubair Motiwala said, “Detailed report of the session will be shared with participants, further cross border sessions will be held in coming weeks and later with Afghan side as joint session to finalize the proposal to be presented to both governments”.

He stated that PAJCCI strongly believes that using established banking procedures is preferable for trading but will use its experience to bring about viable barter trade mechanism while keeping in view all legal and practical requirements.

 

Pakistan foreign policy always subservient to US mantra

In today’s blog I am daring to negate an impression created by an article written by Ms Maleeha Lodi (Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United States, United Kingdom and United Nations) and published in Pakistan’s leading English newspaper. I am taking an extreme position by saying, “Pakistan’s foreign policy has always remained subservient to the US mantra”.

Please allow me to begin with the U2 incident, when the US pilot-less planes used to takeoff from a Pakistani airbase near Peshawar for spying USSR. At one point the situation got so nasty that USSR threatened to attack Pakistan.

Badaber: A secret US intelligence facility in Pakistan

In July 1958, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower requested permission from the Pakistani Prime Minister Feroze Khan Noon for the United States to establish a secret intelligence facility in Pakistan and for the U-2 spyplane to fly from Pakistan. The U-2 flew at altitudes that could not be reached by Soviet fighter jets of the era; it was believed to be beyond the reach of Soviet missiles as well. A facility established in Badaber (Peshawar Air Station), 10 miles (16 km) from Peshawar, was a cover for a major communications intercept operation run by the United States National Security Agency (NSA). Badaber was an excellent location because of its proximity to Soviet central Asia. This enabled the monitoring of missile test sites, key infrastructure and communications. The U-2 "spy-in-the-sky" was allowed to use the Pakistan Air Force section of Peshawar Airport to gain vital photo intelligence in an era before satellite observation.

I would also invite the readers to recall last-minute cancellation of the visit of Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to USSR and going to the United States around the same dates.

This also reminds me the US ditching Pakistan at the time of creation of Bangladesh. State-owned Pakistani media kept on telling the US feet could arrive any minute, which never arrived. This creates an impression that the US supported creation of Bangladesh.

Now coming to Afghan proxy war, Pakistan played two opposite roles: first it supported Taliban in averting USSR attack in a quest to reach warm water and then supporting US/Nato troops in crushing the same Taliban.

Please also allow me to share conspiracy theory, “Pakistan and United States have enjoyed cordial relationships due military rule”. The readers are invited to read details of Ayub, Zia and Musharraf eras.

I am also inclined to share another public opinion, The US-Pakistan relationship is a saga of ‘Marriage of Convenience’.

It is often said, ‘Pakistan is a frontline allay of United States in war against terrorism’. Some analysts interpret it ‘Pakistan is partner in proxy wars but when it comes to Investment and trade India is the US darling’.

I tend to subscribe to this theory based on my follow up of the construction of Chabahar Port in Iran. Despite economic sanctions on Iran, India invested millions of dollars in the construction of this port and allied road and rail links to connect with Afghanistan and Central Asian states. Please also note that Pakistan was not allowed to import oil from Iran during this period.

The United States was more than smart in facilitating India in the construction of Chabahar Port and allied infrastructure. The prime US motive was to create an alternative access to land-locked Afghanistan, extended to Central Asian states.

But the real objective was to undermine Pakistan’s importance in Afghan transit trade. There is no denying to the fact that Pakistan still offers cost effective and shortest route to Afghanistan.

Before I conclude let me say, “Pakistan under the influence of the United States has not recognized Taliban Government in Afghanistan”. While Afghans are facing shortage of food and medicines, the two countries are not allowed to trade in local currencies; the United States has not released foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan.

Afghans condemn attack on Iranian missions

A large number of Afghan citizens participated in a gathering in Kabul to show their vigilance against the hypocrisy of the enemies of the Iranian and Afghan nations. The rally in the Afghan capital held to condemn the attack on Iranian diplomatic facilities ended with the reading of a joint statement.

The final statement, titled “No to seditionists”.

This gathering means raising the voice of saying no to the enemies and the hypocrites as well as the beautiful whisper of solidarity between the brotherly nation of Iran and Afghanistan. We call on the two governments of Iran and Afghanistan to prevent a division of the two nations by the enemies through sound management and to prevent the destructive moves of the enemies.

Today, we will shout for the unity of the two heroic and brave nations many times, so that there will be a loud call against the enemy's conspiracies and a voice for empathy, friendship and convergence of the two nations.

If a number of ill-intentioned people threw stones at the door of the Iranian consulate in Herat on Monday, today, on behalf of the Afghan people, we will open the door of the Iranian embassy in Kabul as a sign of brotherhood and friendship.

The people of Afghanistan and Iran must say no to the conspiracies of the enemy with full vigilance and with empathy and brotherhood, punching the slaves of the hypocrites.”

At the end of the gathering, the participants, representing the people of Afghanistan, placed flowers on the doors of the Iranian embassy in Kabul.

On Monday, protesters in Herat broke the windows and CCTV cameras of the Iranian consulate. They also set tires on fire in front of the consulate’s building. 

On Tuesday, the Director General of South Asia at the Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the charge d'affaires of the Afghan embassy in Tehran to strongly protest against the attacks on the Iranian embassy in Kabul and the consulate in Herat.

Recalling the responsibility of governments in ensuring the security of diplomatic missions, the diplomat called for legal action against the attackers on the Iranian missions in Afghanistan.

The Director General also informed the Afghan chargé d'affaires that the consular sections of the missions of Iran in Afghanistan have ceased their activities until further notice in order to get the necessary assurances from the Afghan Foreign Ministry about the full security of the diplomatic offices.

In this regard, Na’eem al-Haq Haqqani, Head of the Taliban Government's Information and Culture Department, called the gathering and attacks of an unidentified group in front of the Iranian consulate in Herat “an arbitrary act”.

He wrote on his Twitter account, “A number of people had protested arbitrarily in front of the Iranian consulate, and the demonstrators immediately were dispersed with the intervention of the security forces of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Taliban). After the Taliban took action, the situation was brought completely under control, and since this move (attack) was controlled very quickly, nothing special happened.”

Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh announced on Tuesday that Iran’s embassy in Kabul and its consulates in other cities in Afghanistan are open and are continuing their activities.

“Yet, it is expected Afghanistan’s interim governing body to responsibly provide the full security of diplomats and diplomatic buildings of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Afghanistan,” Khatibzadeh told reporters.

Iran on Tuesday summoned Afghan envoy in Tehran over attacks the previous day on Iranian diplomatic missions in the neighboring country, state media in Iran reported.

According to the reports, Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Afghan chargé d’affaires in protest over Monday’s attacks on the Iranian Embassy in Kabul and the Iranian Consulate in Herat, where protests had turned aggressive. In Herat, angry Afghan protesters pelted the consulate with rocks.

The ministry demanded that Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers provide the missions with full security and said they stopped working until further notice. On Monday, ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said more needed to be done by the Taliban to ensure security to Iranian missions.

In recent weeks, unverified videos purporting to show Afghan refugees being tortured in Iran have been published on social media, angering many Afghans. Iran has denied the accusations.

Iran hosts millions of Afghan refugees. Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said the number of Afghans in Iran has jumped to 5 million, from nearly 4 million before the Taliban took power last August

 

 

 

 

Taliban Supreme Leader orders ban on poppy cultivation in Afghanistan

The Taliban's Supreme Leader has ordered a ban on poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, warning that the government would crack down on farmers planting the crop. 

Afghanistan is the world's biggest producer of poppy, the source of sap that is refined into heroin, and in recent years its production and exports have only boomed.

"All Afghans are informed that from now on cultivation of poppy has been strictly prohibited across the country," said a decree issued by Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, AFP reported.

The decree was read out by government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid at a gathering of reporters, foreign diplomats and Taliban officials.

"If anyone violates the decree the crop will be destroyed immediately and the violator will be treated according to the Shariah law," it added.

Iran has been the main victim of poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. It has lost about 4,000 security forces in the battle against drug traffickers over the past four decades. Traffickers mainly use the Iranian soil as a transit route to smuggle opium and heroin to Europe.    

It is not the first time the fundamentalist group has vowed to outlaw the trade. Production was banned in 2000, just before the group was overthrown by US-led forces in the wake of the September 11 attacks.

During their 20-year insurgency against foreign forces, the Taliban heavily taxed farmers cultivating the crop in areas under their control.

It became a key resource for the group to generate funds.

The United States and NATO forces tried to curb poppy cultivation during their two decades in Afghanistan by paying farmers to grow alternative crops such as wheat or saffron.

But their attempts were thwarted by the Taliban who controlled the main poppy-growing regions and derived hundreds of millions of dollars from the trade, experts say.

Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Salam Hanafi rejected claims the Taliban helped fuel poppy cultivation during their insurgency.

"How come it was exported all over the world when they (US-led forces) had full control over Afghanistan," Hanafi said Sunday.

Afghan media reports say production has increased in two southern provinces, Kandahar and Helmand, since the Taliban seized power in August 2021, although data is not available.

Afghanistan has a near monopoly on opium and heroin, accounting for 80 to 90 percent of global output, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

The amount of land planted with poppies hit a record high in 2017 and has averaged around 250,000 hectares in recent years, roughly four times the level of the mid-1990s, UN figures show.

 

China holds multinational meeting to discuss Afghanistan situation

China is holding two multinational meetings in the ancient town of Tunxi to discuss the economic and humanitarian crisis facing Afghanistan, as Beijing makes a diplomatic push for the country’s stability and development under the Taliban.

Afghan acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi is attending the two-day meeting to be attended by foreign ministers of Afghanistan’s immediate neighbors – Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Diplomats from Indonesia and Qatar will send their representatives as guest attendees to the regional meeting to be hosted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

“The talks will echo positively with the third meeting of foreign ministers of the Afghan neighbouring countries, to further cement the consensus of all parties … to help Afghanistan achieve peace, stability and development at an early date,” Wang Wenbin, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said.

A separate meeting of the “Extended Troika” will be held concurrently among special envoys for Afghanistan from China, the United States and Russia, China’s foreign ministry said.

“China, the United States, Russia and Pakistan are all countries with significant influence on the Afghan issue,” the foreign ministry spokesperson Wang said of the Troika meeting at a daily briefing on Tuesday.

Tom West, the US special representative for Afghanistan, will attend the meeting of the so-called Extended Troika, a US State Department spokesperson said.

The meetings are being held in Tunxi, an ancient town in Anhui province, possibly because of the relative ease of maintaining a bubble amid coronavirus lockdown in major cities.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday arrived in Tunxi for the talks with his Chinese counterpart but it is not confirmed if he will attend the Afghan meetings.

Lavrov has largely stayed in Russia since last month’s invasion of Ukraine but did travel to Turkey on Tuesday for talks with his counterpart from Kyiv.

The talk comes in the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and as Afghanistan suffers an economic and humanitarian crisis worsened by a financial aid cutoff and sanctions following the Taliban takeover as US-led troops withdrew in August.

Taliban, who fought the US forces for 20 years, returned to power in August 2021 after the collapse of West-backed government of President Ashraf Ghani.

The talks also come amid widespread condemnation of the Taliban’s U-turn last week on allowing girls to attend public high schools, which has sparked consternation among funders ahead of a key aid donors’ conference.

The school closure prompted US officials to cancel talks in Doha with the Taliban and a State Department warning that Washington saw the decision as “a potential turning point in our engagement” with the armed group.

The US believes that it shares with other Extended Troika members an interest in the Taliban making good on commitments to form an inclusive government, cooperate on counterterrorism and rebuild the Afghan economy, the State Department spokesperson said.

Diplomats and aid groups have warned that Taliban decision to keep the schools shut could make donors, already facing increased needs because of the Ukraine crisis, scale back their commitments.

On Wednesday, the World Bank put four projects in Afghanistan worth US$600 million on hold over the school ban.

Britain on Wednesday pledged an additional US$374 million for life-saving food and other aid in Afghanistan, a day ahead of an international conference seeking more than US$4 billion, even as concerns mount over Taliban rule.

The UN humanitarian appeal, the largest ever launched for a single country, is only 13 percent funded, UN spokesperson Jens Laerke said ahead of Thursday’s pledging conference.

Roughly 23 million people are experiencing acute hunger and 95 percent of Afghans are not eating enough, while 10 million children are in urgent need of aid to survive, according to the UN.

China has studiously avoided mentioning the limits on girls’ education and other human rights abuses, particularly those targeting women while keeping its Kabul embassy open.

Lately, Chinese Foreign Minister visited the Afghan capital Kabul, where he met the Acting Afghan Foreign Minister to discuss political and economic ties, including starting work in the mining sector and Afghanistan’s possible role in China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, the Afghan foreign ministry said.

The surprise stop in Kabul came as the international community fumes over the Taliban administration’s broken promise a day earlier to open schools to girls beyond the sixth grade.

China, in line with the international community, has not recognized Afghanistan’s so-called “Islamic Emirate”, but has refrained from making harsh criticism against the group.

A month before the Taliban took power, Chinese Foreign Minister, had hosted a high-power delegation from the group on July 28, 2021, meeting in the Chinese port city of Tianjin. Wang referred to the group as pivotal force important to peace and reconstruction in Afghanistan.

On that and other occasions, the Chinese have pushed the Taliban for assurances it will not permit operations within its borders by members of China’s Turkic Muslim Uighur minority, which has faced repression from Beijing.

 

Afghanistan to be next proxy war ground

The invasion of Ukraine has essentially consolidated US-Russia antagonism, while upending the post-Cold-War security order in Europe. It has also initiated the militaristic rationale of the Cold War without providing the two ideological alternatives of organizing politics, economies and societies that characterized that period.

It is critical to recognize that the Cold War’s proxy wars, or hot wars, will play out mercilessly and more viciously in conflict-prone regions of the Global South, while the North will use all means to extinguish these wars from its soil or try to turn them into frozen conflicts or prolonged asymmetric insurgencies.

In Asia, it is important that nations such as India, China, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and even Israel retain their balancing act and non-alignment posture and do not succumb to pressure from the West or Russia to choose sides.

The recent rapprochement of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan towards Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin while avoiding US President Joe Biden; and Israel’s efforts to reach out to all sides, including Moscow, Berlin and Washington, all indicate diplomatic efforts to find a solution to this conflict but, more importantly, to avoid being sucked into a war that is being imposed on them.

This cooperation and diplomatic effort demonstrated by West Asian nations is also desperately needed between Beijing, New Delhi, Tehran and Islamabad.

Analysts have already pointed to the US-Russia rivalry in the Middle East as Russia’s military-to-military links with authoritarian regimes of the region – including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Libya, Iran, and even Israel – have provided Moscow with legitimate leverage to threaten US security interests and project power into southern Europe.

While the invasion of Ukraine strengthened the Western alliance militarily and economically, prompted German rearmament and pushed neutral European states to consider joining NATO, it is critical that Asian powers take steps to prevent both Russian and Western incursions into their weaker and conflict-prone neighborhoods, for themselves and their neighbours.

While most media outlets and analysts remain focused on places with traditional military presence and face-offs, US-Russian and even US-Chinese proxy wars will resume in another critical geostrategic region i.e. Central Asia.

Afghanistan’s geostrategic importance and conflict-prone environment will once again serve as the starting point for a superpower proxy war, allowing the US to open new fronts against its arch rivals Russia and China.

A member of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies stands among the food rations to be distributed to drought-hit farmers, in Sang-e-Atash, Afghanistan, on December 13, 2021. Severe drought has worsened the already desperate situation in the country, forcing thousands to flee their homes and live in extreme poverty.

The number and nature of opportunistic Islamist terrorist organizations and spoiler groups in and around Afghanistan provide an ideal breeding ground for further destabilization of the entire region, including Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan.

This time, the West will aim to expand the threat of Islamic terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, actually destabilizing Russia’s underbelly, stretching its forces and resources while Moscow grapples with harsh sanctions.

At the same time, the threat emerging from Afghanistan and the mountainous regions of Central Asia will destabilize China’s restive Western border, adding to Beijing’s already-heightened domestic security concerns. Washington will literally hit two or more birds with one stone at the very low cost of financing and arming Islamist groups.

This is not to say that Washington had this intention all along. Under the Donald Trump and Joe Biden administrations, Washington has made it clear that Islamic terrorism was no longer the perceived threat to US national security it had once been, and this was replaced by Russia, but more importantly, China.

The US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan should also be viewed in the light of Washington’s shifting strategic priorities. The war in Ukraine changed all that.

Afghans protest Biden’s order to reallocate unfrozen Afghan funds

It is noteworthy that the Taliban, unlike its pro-Western predecessor, now prioritizes China and Russia.

It has disarmed and weakened, for the time being, the Uygur-linked East Turkestan Islamic Movement terrorist organization based in Afghanistan. It is pursuing the Afghan chapter of Islamic State, Islamic State of Khorasan Province, to reassure Russia and the Central Asian Republics that it poses no threat to them, among other reasons. It is using water politics to persuade Iran to recognize it.

Despite all these efforts, Taliban are still waiting for some tangible support from these countries to help it consolidate its position in Afghanistan.

It would not be surprising if the Taliban turned against these countries or simply turned a blind eye, allowing terrorist groups to use Afghan soil as a launch pad for activities against Russia or China and beyond in exchange for desperately needed US financial backing.

Though the emergence of organized armed resistance against the Taliban have already started in small pockets across Afghanistan – and are often legitimate uprisings against an oppressive regime – unfortunately and realistically, whatever emerges from the region now will have to serve the proxy interests of the US and Russia before serving Afghan nationalist or resistance aspirations.

The Afghan people, like Ukrainians, now have to choose between bad and worse. By going their own way and taking care of their weak neighbours, Asian powers of the Global South can help prevent the worse option and the spread of yet another hot Cold War in Asia.

 

Pakistan should get ready to trade with Iran

According to a Dawn report the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed between Iran and leading super powers in 2015 is likely to present Pakistan some of the rarest opportunities. It will not only open up new avenues for closer economic engagement between the two neighbors, but access to oil, gas oil and minerals.

According to credible media reports, JCPOA is expected early next month. To earn Iran’s trust and to convince the world of the US intent, President Joe Biden has restored some sanction waivers early this month. These breaks would allow firms around the world to trade with Iran.

The private sector, aware of the US hostility towards Iran and its dominant position in the global market, particularly over capital flows through the banking system.

Razzak Dawood, advisor to Prime Minister on commerce, did not divulge much on the possibility of visiting Tehran to explore possibilities. Responding to Dawn, he did not hide his lack of interest. “I am looking into it.”

The reports from Vienna are calming in a global environment of growing geopolitical rivalries threatening whatever is left of Covid-battered economies. If the growing energy insecurity amidst rising oil prices and vanishing fears of Western backlash kick-start the Pakistan-Iran oil pipeline project, it will be a real boon for the people and the private sector groaning under the burden of rising fuel prices, hoped an incorrigible optimist.

Journalist-turned-politician Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed was hopeful of a positive outcome if the sanctions are lifted on Iran and the financial flows are eased. The partial sanction waiver by the United States is good news for Pakistan. as it will open up opportunities for boosting commercial cooperation between the two neighbours. Coupled with US humanitarian sanctions waiver for Afghanistan after January 23-25 Oslo meeting, this augurs well for lowering tensions in the region.

“While Iranian minister’s visit was linked more with cross-border security issues, especially terrorism in Balochistan, last year’s opening of a third border crossing point between Pakistan and Iran can provide an impetus for bilateral trade and travel.

“The biggest issue was that, fearing Western retaliation; Pakistani banks were not willing to open a letter of credit (LC) for legitimate overland trade. Perhaps, eventually, the Pakistan-Iran pipeline deal can also be revived. Iran can provide energy security to Pakistan which would strengthen the economy.

“An additional force multiplier for Pakistan-Iran economic ties is the China-Iran strategic economic agreement,” he responded in writing when reached for his input.

Dr. Manzoor Ahmed, former Ambassador of Pakistan to the World Trade Organization (WTO), lament limited trade and implicitly blamed a weak foreign policy.

“Pakistan has a very low trade volume; its exports to Iran can be multiplied manifold. Despite sanctions, India’s exports crossed US$3 billion as it allowed Iran to buy in Indian currency,” he said.

In the past, it was not US sanctions alone, but also the Saudi pressure that prevented Pakistan from deepening trade ties.

Pakistan should start preparing for the post-sanction period. It enjoys potential to diversify its energy import sources. Both the countries enjoy a long common border. There is also a probability of opening more border posts.

Pakistan has already signed a preferential trade agreement with Iran. The time has come to reciprocate the good will gesture of Iran.

Delay in recognizing Taliban government could initiate anarchy in Afghanistan

The animosity of United States with Taliban is evident from the fact that despite taking an exit from Afghanistan as back as on August 15, 2021, the super power has not recognized the Taliban government.

To further add to Taliban insults the US has also not unfrozen foreign exchange reserves of Afghanistan. It looks too funny that the super powers are trying to arrange aid for Afghanistan, on the pretext of hunger etc. However, Afghans are barred from using their own foreign exchange reserves.

There is a consensus among the analysts that since the Taliban's takeover of Kabul, the United States has fundamentally altered its approach towards Afghanistan.

The United States is defeating its stated goals of countering terrorism, maintaining regional stability and protecting rights of Afghans, particularly females.

The United States has been beating the drums that the violent conflicts among the armed groups have proliferated.

The fragile economy of Afghanistan is deteriorating fast and the Afghan people are facing an extraordinarily grave humanitarian crisis. The Taliban's interim government is widely viewed as insular and exclusive.

The western media is constantly running stories that Taliban have curtailed rights of girls and women. It is also alleged that Taliban at times have turned a blind eye to abductions, beatings and, in some cases, the torture and killing of journalists, human rights activists and former civilian and military officials. 

Tom West was appointed the US Special Representative for Afghanistan in October 2021, and assigned task of advancing US objectives in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US and NATO forces and the Taliban takeover.

As part of his efforts, he engages in dialogue representatives of Taliban, regional leaders, the international community and Afghan political and civil society members to find ways to assist the Afghan people while protecting US national security interests.

I am shocked to know that a US Think Tank intends to invite the US Special Representative for consultations with the Taliban, other Afghans and the international community to find ways of supporting the Afghan people during this period of significant transition for the country.

According to the critics of Afghanistan policy of the United States, it is feared that whatever armaments the super power has abandoned in Afghanistan may be ultimately repossessed and used by ISIS and/or anti-Taliban groups.

India trying to win over hearts of its neighbors

According to The Bangladesh Chronicle, India has announced substantial assistance for all the SAARC member countries, except Pakistan. The announcement was made by Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman while presenting the 2022-23 budget in the parliament.

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is an economic and political organization of eight countries in South Asia. It was established in 1985 when the Heads of State of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka formally adopted the charter. Afghanistan joined as the 8th member of SAARC in 2007. To date, 18th Summits have been held and Nepal’s former Foreign Secretary is the current Secretary General of SAARC. The 19th Summit was to be hosted by Pakistan in 2016, which never happened.

India announced Rs 300 crore annual budgetary financial assistance for Bangladesh, up from Rs 200 crore in the outgoing fiscal 2021-22. The allocation of the financial assistance has been provided for the Ministry of External Affairs.

Myanmar will get Rs 600 crore, Rs 200 crore more than last financial year, and Nepal will get Rs 750 crore from India in the coming fiscal.

India has allocated Rs 200 crore as aid to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan in for 2022-23 even though New Delhi does not have diplomatic presence in Kabul where its embassy has remained closed since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in August last.

The government of Ashraf Ghani in Afghanistan had in the last fiscal received around Rs 348 crore from India.

The Maldives at Rs 360 crore (as against Rs 250 crore in 2021-22) also saw an increase in India’s annual aid provision in today’s budget document.

At Rs 2,266.24 crore in 2022-23, Bhutan is once again be the highest recipient of India’s annual financial aid. But this is lower than Rs 3,004.95 crore in 2021-22 fiscal.

The second highest recipient in the coming financial year of the allocation will be the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius — Rs 900 crore.

 

Russia-India ties face many odds

The year 2021 may prove to be an important milestone in the evolution of strategic relations between Russia and India. On December 06, 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin flew into New Delhi on a one day state visit. 

The one-on-one meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which lasted three and a half hours, was aimed at restoring confidence between the two powers as time-proven and trusted strategic partners.

For Putin, the trip to India was only his second overseas visit since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic (the other was the first meeting with his US counterpart Joe Biden in Geneva). That fact alone signifies the importance of India to the Kremlin and the desire to keep relations close. But Putin’s brief visit to New Delhi was just part of broader high-level bilateral talks, which included an impressive entourage representing both countries.

The last time Putin and Modi met was in 2019 during the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. After that, the two leaders avoided their interactions. The reason, they claimed, was the Covid-19 outbreak.

The relationship had been cooling long before Covid-19 struck. New Delhi felt that Moscow was taking advantage of India, playing upon its fears of China. The case of India’s purchase of a modified Russian cruiser turned aircraft carrier is one example. It led India’s comptroller and auditor-general to lament that India had paid 60% more for a second-hand aircraft carrier than a new one would have cost. Admiral Arun Prakash, a former chief of the Indian naval staff, was equally scathing in his evaluation of the Russian MiG-29K aircraft that were to be used on the aircraft carrier.

Russia, for its part, was unhappy with India’s growing ties with the United States. Between 2007 and 2020, India spent more than US$17 billion on military purchases from the US. Russia was particularly unhappy that India had entered into four ‘foundational’ security agreements with the US that cover the transfer of military information, logistics exchanges, compatibility and security.

At the same time, Russia’s relationship with China was growing through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its ties to the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which was established to ensure the security of the Soviet Union’s successor states. Russia and China, seeing the US as a common antagonist, collaborated on technology transfers, Russia’s sale of energy products to China, and increased trade and tourism. They also engaged in joint military exercises and naval and air patrols.

That said, there remains the suspicion that Moscow is ‘passively facilitating’ New Delhi’s role in the Quad in order to restore equality in its strategic relations with Beijing. That could help revive, in turn, its stalled ‘new détente’ with the West.

India is suspicious of Russia’s developing relationship with Pakistan. New Delhi worries that Moscow is hyphenating its relationships with its two neighbouring enemies. That suspicion grew when Russia didn’t invite India to a meeting it convened with China, Pakistan and the US on the Afghanistan situation, a move that was seen as a deliberate snub in New Delhi.

India needs the potential security that Russia can provide. Little wonder, then, that it was prepared to purchase the S-400 air-defence system from Russia despite US pressure not to, and to offer an invitation to Putin to visit India, which he accepted.

The two countries launched ‘2+2’ ministerial consultations involving their foreign and defence ministers, making Russia the fourth partner with which India has the same format (the other three Quad members are Australia, Japan and the US).

They also signed another 10-year agreement on joint military–technical cooperation until 2031 and agreed to expand and deepen bilateral defence cooperation. Adding to that, Russia has reaffirmed its position as one of the principal providers of advanced military technology to the Indian military. Since 1991, India has acquired a comprehensive suite of weapons and platforms for all its fighting services worth some US$70 billion. The current value of India’s defence contracts with Russia is approximately US$15 billion.

Perhaps one of the most important outcomes for Russia was India’s reassurance that it is not siding with US strategic plans to form a regional political–military containment bloc. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the Indians ‘distanced themselves from the AUKUS bloc’. He said, ‘They are part of the Quad group, which brings together India, Japan, Australia and the US, and India … emphasises its interest in economic infrastructure and transport projects within this framework.’

Clearly, the talks didn’t eradicate all contentious points in the relationship. India is likely to remain concerned about Russia’s ties to China, Pakistan and the Taliban. Despite ambitious goals, the bilateral economic relationship won’t reach the levels of the ones that India enjoys with the US and China.

Even in the defence cooperation sphere, which is at the core of Russia–India strategic ties, some issues persist. For example, the two countries failed to finalize the reciprocal logistics support agreement, which was supposed to become an important stepping stone in closer military-to-military interaction.

The meetings in New Delhi came less than a week after the visit to Moscow of the president of Vietnam, a country with which Russia developed a comprehensive strategic partnership a decade ago. Both events highlight Russia’s more flexible approach towards its strategic engagement in the Indo-Pacific, despite the centrality of China in Russia’s Asia policy.

Putin’s meeting with Modi took place a day before the Russian president had his second major interaction with Biden, and just days before the US-led Summit for Democracy, to which Moscow was not invited. For Putin, it was important to show Washington and Brussels that Russia has a network of strategic partners it can call upon.

Recognizing that and Russia’s importance to India, New Delhi has tried to show Moscow that it’s not drifting away from the relationship. New Delhi recognizes that Moscow can’t fully trust Beijing, which makes the Indo-Russian relationship all the more important. India’s purchase of the S-400 missile system despite US pressure was meant to send exactly that message. The launch of the 2+2 ministerial consultations is likely to ease Russia’s concerns that New Delhi has been gradually drifting towards the US geopolitical orbit, confirming that India is ‘not in anyone’s camp’.

Afghanistan needs a sustainable government

Pakistan has just played host to the biggest international gathering on Afghanistan in which Iran actively participated and submitted a number of proposals to address the dire situation in neighboring Afghanistan.

On Sunday, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation held an extraordinary session on Afghanistan at the request of Saudi Arabia. The meeting of the OIC council of foreign ministers was held in Islamabad, Pakistan with the participation of Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. 

The session was the latest effort by Pakistan to put the limelight on the dire situation of Afghanistan amid growing international apathy toward the war-torn country. Since the rise of the Taliban a few months ago, Afghanistan has turned into a pariah state with no legitimate and internationally recognized government.

In August, the Taliban overthrew the US-backed government in Kabul and assumed power. But it is yet to be recognized by any country. Since then, some of Afghanistan’s neighbors, including Iran, have tried to help the Afghan people while encouraging the Taliban into forming a broad-based government representing all Afghan ethnoreligious groups. The Taliban has announced a caretaker government that raised alarm bells across the globe for excluding women and ethnic groups. 

The Taliban’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, was in attendance at the OIC meeting but he was excluded from the family photo of the 17th Extraordinary Session of the OIC Council of Foreign Ministers given the fact that none of the OIC member states has recognized the Taliban-led government. 

With the Taliban government continuing to be unrecognized, the international community has faced difficulty providing humanitarian aid to the Afghan people who are grappling with economic hardships during a frosty winter. 

Iran and some other countries have sent many planeloads of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. But some countries are concerned about and unwilling to directly provide aid to Kabul. This was addressed during the OIC meeting which pledged to set up a humanitarian trust fund for Afghanistan.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmoud Qureshi also pointed to this issue. He said many want to make donations, but they don't want to donate directly, they want a certain mechanism that will comfort them.

Commenting on the OIC-proposed mechanism, Qureshi said that the mechanism has been established, and donations will be made. 

Prime Minister Imran Khan also highlighted the dire situation in Afghanistan. “Unless action is taken immediately, Afghanistan is heading for chaos,” he said, adding, “Any government when it can’t pay its salaries for its public servants, hospitals, doctors, nurses, any government is going to collapse but chaos suits no one, it certainly does not suit the United States.”

Pakistan seems to believe that the non-recognition of the Taliban’s government would further exacerbate the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan. But the Taliban also failed to meet the requirements of the international community in regard to the formation of an inclusive government. 

Iran sought to help the Taliban in this regard by presenting a four-point proposal that seems to be devised to pave the way for recognition of the Taliban by the international community. 

In his speech at the OIC meeting, Amir Abdollahian unveiled Iran’s proposal that he said was made in support of the people of Afghanistan.

“First, Muslim states should encourage the ruling establishment in Afghanistan and all parties to form an inclusive government. Second, the people of Afghanistan are in dire need of urgent humanitarian assistance. The formation of a financial fund among the Muslim states seems necessary to realize this objective,” Amir Abdollahian said. 

He added, “Third, it is also necessary to release Afghanistan’s assets. Fourth, undoubtedly, the UN member states and its Secretary General can play a leading role in contributing to the formation of an inclusive government and assisting the people of Afghanistan and prevent a new humanitarian catastrophe.”

The Iranian foreign minister also expressed hope that an inclusive government will soon be formed in Afghanistan with the participation of all Afghan ethnic groups so that its representative will be able to attend the next OIC conference and Afghanistan’s seat won’t be vacant.  

Amir Abdollahian reiterated Iran’s position during a meeting with Imran Khan. He pointed out that the Islamic Republic of Iran is ready to cooperate with Afghanistan's neighbors, regional countries and the UN to facilitate the establishment of a broad-based government in Afghanistan by Afghans themselves. Amir Abdollahian also spoke of bilateral issues between Iran and Pakistan, especially the issue of border cooperation.

 

Iran’s growing trade with ECO member countries

Iran’s trade with the members of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) exceeded US$10.447 billion in the first eight months of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21-November 22) to register a 44% increase year on year (YoY), the spokesman of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) said.

According to Ruhollah Latifi, the volume of trade with the mentioned countries also increased by 34 percent in comparison to the previous year’s same eight months, IRNA reported.

As reported, during the mentioned period Iran traded over 21,778,387 tons of commodities worth US$10.447 billion with ECO member countries including Turkey, Afghanistan, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Iran exported 18.631 million tons of commodities worth over US$6.823 billion to the said nations in the mentioned period.

He said major export destinations of the Iranian goods in the said union were Turkey with about US$3.767 billion of imports, Afghanistan with US$1.27 billion, Pakistan with US$764.389 million, and Azerbaijan with US$335.843 million.

As reported, the Islamic Republic’s export to ECO members increased by 46% and 54% as compared to the figures for the previous year in terms of weight and value, respectively.

Meanwhile, the country imported 3,147,332 tons of goods valued at over US$3.623 billion from the ECO member countries, with Turkey, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan being the top sources of imported goods.

The value of Iranian imports from the ECO union also increased by 28% as compared to the previous year’s same time span, the official said.

According to Latifi, more than 23.723 million tons of goods worth US$11.71 billion were traded between Iran and the ECO member countries during the previous Iranian calendar year (ended on March 20), of which the share of exports was 18.419 million tons of goods worth US$6.890 billion and the share of imports from these countries was 5.312 million tons worth US$4.819 billion.

The value of Iran’s non-oil trade during the first eight months of the current year stood at about US$33 billion, Latifi had previously announced.

The Economic Cooperation Organization or ECO is an Asian political and economic intergovernmental organization that was founded in 1985 in Tehran by the leaders of Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey.

 

No punishment for those involved in fatal Kabul drone strike

No military personnel involved in a botched drone strike that killed 10 civilians in Kabul, Afghanistan, earlier this year will face punishment, the Pentagon said Monday.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin approved recommendations from US Central Command head Gen. Kenneth McKenzie and US Special Operations Command leader Gen. Richard Clarke not to take any administrative action against those involved in the August 29 strike, press secretary John Kirby told reporters.  

Kirby said that when McKenzie and Clarke listed their recommendations to Austin “there was no recommendation by either of them about accountability.”

“The recommendations were more about procedure and process and the secretary reviewed them and has accepted them,” Kirby told reporters. “And again, most of them are of a classified nature. ... but there was no overt recommendation made by either specific to accountability or any punishment for anyone.”

The Defense Department admitted in September that the drone strike — which came in the final days of the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan — was a “tragic mistake” that killed the civilians, including seven children. Prior to that, Pentagon officials had said the strike was necessary to prevent “an imminent ISIS-K threat” to US forces evacuating people at Kabul’s airport.

The Pentagon, which initially defended the targeting as a “righteous strike,” carried out the bombing after commanders errantly thought the driver of a white Toyota Corolla — 37-year-old Zemerai Ahmadi, a longtime aid worker for a US-based group — was an ISIS-K operative with explosives.

After a high-level Pentagon review into the incident, no violation of the laws of war were found but it was discovered there were “execution errors” in the lead-up to the strike. 

The investigation, revealed last month, concluded that the errors were not caused by misconduct or negligence and doesn't recommend disciplinary action, but gave commanders the power to decide on what accountability, if any, there would be.

But both McKenzie and Clarke found no grounds for punishing any of the military personnel involved, a Pentagon official told the Times.

In a statement, Kirby said the department takes seriously “our obligation to avoid civilian harm in the execution of our operations, and as the secretary made clear, we will not be afraid to make necessary changes to our processes and procedures to that end.” 

The US military has killed hundreds, possibly thousands, of civilians by accident in war zones in places including Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Somalia in the past 20 years but has rarely held specific individuals accountable. 

Public outcry has grown over such killings, including a recently revealed US airstrike in Syria in 2019 that killed dozens of women and children, which military officials tried to conceal. 

 

Pakistan to host OIC foreign ministers’ meeting to avert human crisis in Afghanistan

Foreign Minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi on Saturday said Pakistan would host a session of Council of Foreign Ministers of Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) on December 19. It will focus on highlighting the need for urgent assistance and mobilization of resources to avert a humanitarian crisis and economic collapse in Afghanistan.

“If we don’t pay timely attention, half of Afghanistan’s population or 22.8 million people can face food shortage and 3.2 millio children may face malnutrition. This is the magnitude which we and the world should understand,” Qureshi said while talking to the media in Lahore.

Considering the gravity of the situation, he said Pakistan made an effort and moved ahead to host the international event while realizing that, if not addressed timely, the situation would have dire consequences for "Afghanistan, its neighbors as well as the whole region".

Qureshi stressed that Afghanistan could face economic collapse if its frozen assets were not released to cope with the burgeoning needs.

He also pointed out that such a session of the OIC FMs on the Afghanistan situation would be held after 41 years with the first held in 1980. The foreign minister added that besides the foreign ministers of the OIC countries, Pakistan had also invited the special representatives of P-5 countries including the United States, China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom.

Invitations were also extended to the European Union's high representative on foreign affairs and international organizations such as the World Bank and relevant United Nations agencies which could assist in the whole process.

Important countries such as Germany, Japan, Canada and Australia would be invited as well with the objective of "evolving an international consensus".

Qureshi said that Pakistan also wanted to invite a high-level delegation of Afghanistan to interact with the visiting dignitaries and apprise them of the latest on-ground situation.

He noted that senior officials of the respective countries would be meeting prior to the session and officials of the OIC Secretariat would be arriving earlier around Dec 1 to oversee the preparations.

Qureshi said the idea of holding the session on Afghanistan emerged during the meeting between Prime Minister Imran Khan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on the sideline of the Green Summit in October.

As Afghanistan was a founding OIC member, he said it was discussed that the Ummah should make efforts to steer it out of the difficult situation. Qureshi thanked Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud for taking a "keen interest" to achieve consensus on the issue.

Qureshi stressed that abandoning Afghanistan would be a "historic blunder and the world should learn from the past instead of repeating the same mistake".

“If timely attention is not paid, a new crisis can emerge which would bring in instability. This instability will beget mass exodus of refugees. We are already hosting 3m Afghan refugees and it will be difficult to host anymore. The countries like Iran, Tajikistan, and other bordering countries are also similarly concerned,” he said.

The foreign minister also told the media he would meet the EU high representative and EU parliamentarians in Brussels on Dec 7 to apprise them on Afghanistan's situation.

Qureshi said after the withdrawal of troops and the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, India had launched a campaign to sanction Pakistan by blaming it for the Afghan situation. "However, due to its effective foreign policy, Pakistan thwarted all such Indian designs," the foreign minister added.

He said the international community had been convinced in the wake of Pakistan's diplomatic outreach that engagement with Afghanistan was in everyone’s interest as delegates had started visiting the country.

The foreign minister added that in collaboration with China, a platform of six neighboring countries was also formed to discuss the situation and explore opportunities after the revival of peace in Afghanistan.

Qureshi also highlighted that Pakistan was already assisting Afghans by dispatching medicines, 50,000 tons of wheat and other relief items. He added that India was also allowed to transport wheat through Pakistan.

Is the US hegemony around the world ending?

The horrifying images of desperate Afghans trying to get out of Kabul after the US-backed government collapsed in August signify a major twist in world history, the end of the US hegemony had come earlier than anticipated.

The growing weakness of United States can be attributed more to the domestic issues rather than its overseas proxy wars. The country is gradually losing status of largest ‘economic power’ as well as its ability to fix internal problems.

The peak period of the US hegemony lasted less than 20 years, from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to the financial crisis of 2007-09. The country was dominant in many domains of power—military, economic, political and cultural.

The height of American hubris was the invasion of Iraq in 2003, when it hoped to remake not just Iraq and Afghanistan, but the whole Middle East. The United States not only overestimated the effectiveness of its military power to bring about deep political change, but also underestimated the impact of its free-market economic model on global finance.

The decade ended with its troops bogged down in two counterinsurgency wars and a financial crisis that accentuated the inequalities of US-led globalization had brought about.

The degree of uni-polarity in this period has been rare in history, and the world has been reverting to a more normal state of multi-polarity ever since, with China, Russia, India, Europe and others gaining power relative to counter the US.

Afghanistan’s ultimate effect on geopolitics is not likely to be small. The US may have survived an earlier, humiliating defeat when it withdrew from Vietnam in 1975, but regained its dominance within little more than a decade. The much bigger challenge to the US global standing is domestic.

American society has become deeply polarized and has found it difficult to find consensus on virtually anything. This polarization started over conventional policy issues like taxes and abortion, but has since metastasized into a bitter fight over cultural identity.

Normally a big external threat such as a global pandemic should be the occasion for citizens to rally around a common response. But the covid-19 crisis served rather to deepen divide in the United States, with social distancing, mask-wearing and vaccinations being seen not as public-health measures but as political markers. These conflicts have spread to all aspects of life, from sport to the brands of consumer products that red and blue Americans buy.

Many analysts believe that the US influence abroad depends on its ability to fix its internal problems. Polarization has affected foreign policy directly.

During Barack Obama’s presidency, Republicans took a hawkish stance and scolded Democrats for the Russian “reset” and alleged naivety regarding Vladimir Putin.

Donald Trump turned the tables by embracing Putin, and today roughly half of Republicans believe that the Democrats constitute a bigger threat to the American way of life than Russia does.

There is more apparent consensus regarding China as both Republicans and Democrats agree it is a threat to democratic values. A far greater test of the US foreign policy than Afghanistan will be Taiwan, if it comes under direct Chinese attack. Will the United States be willing to sacrifice its sons and daughters on behalf of that island’s independence?

Would the US risk military conflict with Russia should it invade Ukraine? These are serious questions with no easy answers. A reasoned debate about the US national interest has to be conducted primarily through the lens of how it affects the partisan struggle.

The biggest policy debacle of President Joe Biden’s administration in its first year has been its failure to plan adequately for the rapid collapse of Afghanistan.

Biden has suggested that withdrawal was necessary in order to focus on meeting the bigger challenges from Russia and China. Obama was never successful in making a “pivot” to Asia because the US remained focused on counterinsurgency in the Middle East.

In 2022, the administration needs to redeploy both resources and the attention of policymakers to deter geopolitical rivals and engage with allies.

The United States is not likely to regain its earlier hegemonic status, nor should it aspire to. What it can hope for is to sustain, with like-minded countries, a world order friendly to democratic values. The ability do this depend on recovering a sense of national identity and purpose at home.

Iran keen in developing links with neighbors

Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran for Economic Diplomacy Mehdi Safari has said it is a priority to expand economic and trade cooperation with neighbors, saying the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) can help achieve this goal.

Safari made the remarks at a meeting with ECO Secretary-General Khosrow Nazeri on the eve of the ECO summit in Turkmenistan, Mehr reported on Wednesday.

ECO includes Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

At the meeting, the ECO chief presented a report on the process to prepare for the summit in Ashgabat and hailed Iran for its assistance in this regard.

Safari said expansion of economic and trade cooperation with neighbors is a priority of the new Iranian administration and stressed the role of ECO in achieving the goals of member countries.

The top diplomat said a plan by Iran to send a high-level team to the forthcoming summit signifies the prominent position of ECO.

Safari said Iran is ready help ECO members to implement important decisions at the ECO summit in Ashgabat.

Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister Rostam Qasemi said that positive agreements have been reached with neighboring countries, for expansion of transportation cooperation, especially in the aviation sector, IRNA reported.

Speaking at the ceremony on introducing the new head of Civil Aviation Organization (CAO), Qasemi said, “We recently reached agreements with Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, part of which is related to the development of aviation.”

According to the official, the expansion of transportation cooperation with other countries will lead to the expansion of trade ties and eventually will increase the country’s revenues.

“We have made plans for upgrading our transportation fleet. However, we need effective measures to be taken for the development of the aviation industry,” he stressed.

He further stated that the most important factor in the development of the aviation industry is the use of specialists to promote it, adding: “In order to empower the aviation industry to meet the needs of the country, we need more work to be done, and this capability exists inside the country.”

Elsewhere in his remarks, Qasemi mentioned the needs of other transportation sectors including road, maritime, and rail, and said, “The transport sector needs to modernize its fleet, and we have not yet achieved the goals of the program in the rail, sea, and land sectors.”

Ghasemi pointed to the existing problems in the railway fleet and also the incompleteness of the country’s railway corridors and said, "Conditions in the railway sector are not favorable, the average life of the road transportation fleet is high and in the sea sector, despite high capacities, the capacity of the country’s ports has not been used well."

 

Iran accuses US supporting ISIS in Afghanistan

Iran's special envoy for Afghanistan said on Monday that after the defeat in Afghanistan, the United States is trying to support the ISIS terrorist group.

"The aggressor country, which intended to rule Afghanistan for the past 20 years, is now trying to strengthen the takfiri groups in Afghanistan after its defeat," Hassan Kazemi Qomi said.

Arriving in Kabul, the Iranian diplomat told reporters that the purpose of his visit was to discuss political, economic, security and Afghan refugee issues with the officials of interim government.

"We respect the will of the Afghan people and our position is in line with the wishes of the Afghan people," Kazemi Qomi told a reporter when asked about recognizing the Taliban government.

Iran's special envoy for Afghanistan expressed hope that with formation of a strong government in Afghanistan, stability would prevail in the region.

The diplomat went on to say that "Afghanistan, like the Islamic Republic of Iran, is facing oppressive Western sanctions and the two countries will try to cooperate more by ensuring security in the borders."

The Iranian envoy in his remarks underlined that Iran had always stood by the people of Afghanistan and today stands by the people of Afghanistan in all aspects of security, economy and politics.

Referring to the US defeat in Afghanistan, the envoy said some countries are exploiting terrorism to launch a proxy war in Afghanistan.

Earlier, the embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Kabul announced the trip. It said, "Kazemi is scheduled to talk with senior Taliban officials on various issues such as regional issues, refugees, humanitarian aid, formation of an inclusive government and especially economic issues. Helping the Afghan people is a priority before the cold season."

Speaking at his weekly press briefing on Monday, Saeed Khatibzadeh, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that Qomi’s trip to Kabul will address the current and future status of the people of Afghanistan.

He then said that Iran has tried to make the Afghan people bear the least impact from the developments in Afghanistan and the catastrophic departure of the United States from the country.

The diplomat noted that the responsibilities of this governing body will be discussed.

“We are concerned about extremism and terrorism, and we have witnessed the disgusting act of terrorism in attacking worshippers, and it is the direct responsibility of the governing body to protect the security of worshippers and the people of Afghanistan,” he insisted.

He then said that Iran has news of the presence of ISIS in Afghanistan, which is worrying and is one of the topics that will be discussed during the trip by the special envoy to Afghanistan.

ISIS has been targeting worshippers since the Taliban took power in August. Its suicidal attacks on worshippers in Kunduz (northern Afghanistan) on October 8 and Kandahar (southern Afghanistan) on October 15 were horrific.

It also attacked a military hospital in Kabul on November 2. At least 25 people were killed and more than a dozen were wounded during the attack.

The attack, which included armed gunmen and at least one suicide bomber, targeted the 400-bed Sardar Mohammad Daud Khan military hospital.

Zabihullah Mujahid, a spokesman for the Taliban, said the attack was carried out by several members of ISIS, including a suicide bomber who detonated his explosives at the gate to the hospital. A car full of explosives outside the hospital also exploded, wounding dozens, and several Taliban fighters were killed and wounded in the ensuing gun battle, Mujahid said.

Iran hosted the meeting of the foreign ministers of countries neighboring Afghanistan on October 27. The participants at the conference insisted on the need for security in Afghanistan and formation of an inclusive government among other issues.