West Bank the next target of Israel

Having nothing to claim a victory six weeks on, the Israelis are now being forced to move towards the south, in particular, the city of Khan Younis to try their luck there.

The regime has already forced Gazans to move from the north to the south. The Israeli military is now trying to squeeze them, if it can, into an even tighter area, closer to the Mediterranean coast.

This will create all types of problems in particular on a humanitarian scale, which is already at an extremely dire level. 

It will be a much more complicated battle for the Israeli ground forces if they try and go into the now even more densely populated areas of Khan Younis.

The regime is already paving the way for this ground offensive in the south by pounding the area from the air at the expense of innocent lives to make space for the ground forces to move in. 

The Israeli war on Gaza was primarily motivated by anger at a huge intelligence and military failure following the retaliatory al-Aqsa Storm operation by Hamas on October 07. 

There was indeed an immediate political imperative by the regime to do something and get on with it, rather than developing clear military objectives. 

After weeks of indiscriminate bombing campaigns against Palestinian civilians, the Israeli ground forces tried to invade the northern Gaza Strip. 

But the ground offensives in the north of Gaza have made no success, with Israeli commentators admitting so in talks with the regime’s media. 

After the ground offensives began in the north, the Israeli military's stated aims were to seize Gaza City, destroy Hamas, and free the hostages. 

The armed wings of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have prevented the Israeli military from achieving any of its stated objectives. 

In terms of trying to achieve the goals the occupation allegedly set out, which is to eliminate the Palestinian resistance group, but also free the hostages held in the captivity of Hamas, the Israeli military has failed miserably to do either of those two things after six weeks of unprecedented air raids and ground invasion. 

In particular, the notion that Hamas can be destroyed and the war cabinet of the Israeli prime minister has put that objective as the primary goal of its war on Gaza has proven to be wishful thinking.

The Palestinian resistance is as strong as it was on the first day of the war on Gaza some six weeks ago. 

The effectiveness of the Palestinian resistance in blowing up Israeli tanks, targeting the mobilization of its troops, luring Israeli forces into booby-trapped explosive buildings and firing missiles at Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories.

After six weeks of the war on Gaza it is evident that Hamas and other resistance factions remain powerfully strong. 

It has been a total failure for the Israeli occupation, which will go down in the history books for the stubbornness of Prime Minister Netanyahu as a war criminal. 

The only achievement thus far for the Israeli military has been the storming of the Al-Shifa hospital complex. A desperate attempt to find a Hamas military base that both Israeli political and military leaders alleged the group had been using as a command center. 

Yet it proved to be another huge intelligence failure, despite days of thoroughly inspecting every part of the hospital. 

As of Saturday, Israeli ground forces were still operating in the medical center with Palestinian health officials in Gaza saying that many patients, medical staff, and displaced people have now left the site. This is while medical centers must be protected under the rules of war. 

News outlets indicate that the Israeli military has ordered a mass evacuation of the entire hospital despite thousands of disabled and very sick patients unable to do so without dying. 

The hospital’s director, Mohammed Abu Salmiya, told AFP that Israeli troops had instructed him to ensure the evacuation of patients, wounded, the displaced and medical staff, and that they should move on foot towards the seafront".

It is another instance of war crime that the West has once again failed to hold the Zionist regime responsible for. 

The only achievement by the Israeli military is killing Palestinian civilians on a mass scale as well as killing its own hostages due to its indiscriminate bombing campaign that has leveled large parts of the Gaza Strip. 

This is nothing to be proud of and yet governments in the West, with the United States and the United Kingdom in particular, are not only complicit in the Israeli war crimes but continue to support the regime. This support for the Zionist regime is continuing despite the mass weekly demonstrations in the Western world protesting brutality against the Palestinians.

The Gaza Strip is a very tiny coastal sliver and is the most densely populated region in the world. It has been described by international rights organizations as the world's largest open-air prison. 

Six Palestinians were killed on Saturday after an Israeli airstrike on a house in Deir al Balah in the southern Gaza Strip, health officials said.

About 26 Palestinians, mostly children, were also killed in Israeli strikes on Khan Younis in southern Gaza early Saturday morning, the Palestinian news agency WAFA said. 

In what has been labeled as the "second phase" of the Israeli war on Gaza, experts believe it is difficult to imagine that the Israeli ground forces backed by the United States’ air power will be able to crush the resistance without killing thousands of more women and children. 

It is quite clear that Palestinian civilians are about to face another fresh bombardment after leaving the northern Gaza Strip to escape the indiscriminate Israeli bombing campaign. 

What is also clear is that children are already bearing the brunt of this increased bombing campaign in the southern Gaza Strip. 

Yet an Israeli military spokesperson has ordered Palestinians to continue going to southern Gaza. He said those in the areas of Jabayla, al-Daraj al-Tuffah and al-Shuja'iya should leave immediately along the Salah ad-Deen Highway - which runs the length of the fully blockaded Gaza Strip.

This is despite the increased bombardment in southern Gaza, where the Israeli ground forces are about to invade on top of the attacks in the north.

It is pure cowardice by the Israeli regime.

Its military is not taking on members of the Palestinian resistance man to man. Rather, the Israeli military has taken its anger out on Palestinian civilians. 

But where should traumatized Palestinian families in southern Gaza head to now? 

Their only viable option is the sea.

This is exactly what academics would describe as an Israeli genocide in Gaza.
 

 

Pakistan: IMF Reaches Staff Level Agreement

International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and the Pakistani authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the first review under Pakistan’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board. Upon approval, Pakistan will have access to SDR 528 million (around US$700 million).

The agreement supports the authorities’ commitment to advance the planned fiscal consolidation, accelerate cost-reducing reforms in the energy sector, complete the return to a market-determined exchange rate, and pursue state-owned enterprise and governance reforms to attract investment and support job creation, while continuing to strengthen social assistance.

An IMF team, led by Nathan Porter, visited Islamabad from November 2-15, 2023, to hold discussions on the first review of Pakistan’s economic program supported by an IMF Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). At the conclusion of the discussions, Porter issued the following statement:

“The IMF team has reached a staff-level agreement (SLA) with the Pakistani authorities on the first review of their stabilization program supported by the IMF’s US$3 billion (SDR2,250 million) SBA. The agreement is subject to approval of the IMF’s Executive Board. Upon approval around US$700 million (SDR 528 million) will become available bringing total disbursements under the program to almost US$1.9 billion.

“Anchored by the stabilization policies under the SBA, a nascent recovery is underway, buoyed by international partners’ support and signs of improved confidence. The steadfast execution of the FY24 budget, continued adjustment of energy prices, and renewed flows into the foreign exchange (FX) market have lessened fiscal and external pressures. Inflation is expected to decline over the coming months amid receding supply constraints and modest demand. However, Pakistan remains susceptible to significant external risks, including the intensification of geopolitical tensions, resurgent commodity prices, and the further tightening in global financial conditions. Efforts to build resilience need to continue.

“In this regard, strengthening macroeconomic sustainability and laying the conditions for balanced growth are key priorities under the SBA. The authorities’ policy priorities include:

Continued fiscal consolidation to reduce public debt, while protecting development needs. The authorities are determined to achieve a primary surplus of at least 0.4 percent of GDP in FY24, underpinned by federal and provincial government spending restraint and improved revenue performance supported, if necessary, by contingent measures. The authorities are building capacity to expand the tax base and raise revenue mobilization and are committed to improving the quality of public investment and spending.

Strengthening the social safety net to better protect the vulnerable. The authorities will continue the timely disbursements for social protection under BISP’s budget allocation—which are about a third higher than in FY23. This will allow for the expansion of the Unconditional Cash Transfers (UCT) Kafaalat program to 9.3 million families this fiscal year, with an annual inflation adjustment of the stipend. Looking forward, the authorities are seeking to improve the UCT Kafaalat generosity level and to increase enrollment into the Conditional Cash Transfers programs supporting children’s education and health.

Further reforms to reduce costs in the energy sector and restore its viability. With the combined circular debt (CD) across power and gas sectors exceeding 4% of GDP, immediate action was critical. While protecting vulnerable consumers, the authorities implemented power tariff adjustments that were pending since July 2023 and increased gas prices after a long time, effective November 01, 2023. While these increases were substantial, they were necessary to avoid further arrears that threatened the viability of these sectors and the provision of critical energy supplies. The authorities are also moving to tackle cost-side pressures, including bringing private sector participation to DISCOs, institutionalizing recovery and anti-theft actions, improving PPA terms, and reducing the incentives for captive power.

Returning to a market-determined exchange rate and rebuilding FX reserves. While inflows following increased regulatory and law enforcement helped normalize import and FX payments and rebuild reserves, the authorities recognize that the rupee must remain market-determined to sustainably alleviate external pressures and rebuild reserves. To support this, they plan to strengthen the transparency and efficiency of the FX market and to refrain from administrative actions to influence the rupee.

Proactive monetary policy to lower inflation toward its target. With appropriately tight monetary policy, inflation should steadily decline and the authorities stand ready to respond resolutely if near-term price pressures reemerge, including due to second-round effects on core inflation or renewed exchange rate depreciation.

Building financial sector resilience. Continued vigilance is warranted to safeguard the soundness of the banking system. Priorities include addressing undercapitalized financial institutions, ensuring foreign exchange exposures within regulatory limits, and aligning bank resolution and crisis management frameworks with best practice.

Continuing state-owned enterprise and governance reforms to improve the business environment, investment, and job creation. Following passage of the State-Owned Enterprises (SoE) law, the authorities are moving forward with their SoE policy and implementation of their triage plan, including the privatization of select SoEs. High governance and transparency standards will apply to the management of assets under the ownership of the newly created Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) and the operations of the SIFC. To further strengthen governance, the authorities will ensure public access to asset declarations from Cabinet members and a task force, with participation from independent experts, will complete a comprehensive review of the anticorruption framework.

Deepening cooperation with international partners. The authorities have accelerated the engagement with multilateral and official bilateral partners. Timely disbursement of committed external support remains critical to support the authorities’ policy and reform efforts.

“The IMF team thanks the Pakistani authorities, private sector, and development partners for fruitful discussions and cooperation throughout this mission.”

 

Yemen: Houthis hijack cargo ship in Red Sea

Reportedly, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis have seized an Israeli cargo ship in the Red Sea. They said the vessel was then taken to a port in Yemen.

Israel said the ship was not Israeli, and no Israelis were among its crew. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said this was another act of Iranian terrorism.

Iran has not commented.

Houthis had threatened to hijack Israeli ship within their reach over Israel’s war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Israel says 1,200 people were killed and more than 240 taken hostage during the surprise Hamas attack on the south of the country on October 07.

Israel has launched a massive military operation — involving air and artillery strikes as well as ground troops — with the aim of eliminating Hamas.

The Hamas-run Health Ministry says the death toll in Gaza since then has reached 12,300. More than 2,000 more are feared to be buried under rubble.

The Houthis have fired several missiles and drones towards Israel just after Israel launched its retaliatory operation.

The United States said at the time that all the missiles and drones were intercepted by its warship in the Red Sea.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described the attack on the ship — which it did not name — as a very grave incident of global consequence.

The IDF said the vessel was on its way from Turkey to India when it was seized in the southern Red Sea near Yemen.

Although, Israel says the seized vessel does not have any connection with it, unconfirmed reports suggest the ship may have an Israeli owner.

In Sunday’s statement on social media, Netanyahu said that Israel strongly condemns the Iranian attack against an international vessel.

He said the ship was owned by “a British company and is operated by a Japanese firm”, adding that “25 crew members of various nationalities including Ukrainian, Bulgarian, Filipino and Mexican” were on board the ship.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has recently said that what he called resistance groups allied to Tehran were cleverly adjusting pressure on Israel and its supporters.

Earlier this month, the Houthis shot down a US military drone off Yemen’s coast, American officials said.

The Houthis have been locked in a prolonged civil war with Yemen’s official government since 2014.

Hamas HQ in Khan Yunis, claims Olmert

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert claims that in Khan Yunis Hamas leadership is hiding, they have the bunkers, they have the command positions, they have the launching pads.

In an interview with Euronews on Friday, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that the real headquarters of Hamas leadership were located in Khan Yunis.

“Every citizen, every baby, every child that is killed is terrible. So, I don't want to argue about the numbers. Everyone that is killed there, it’s terrible.” the former Israeli leader said.

He went on, though, asking that, when nations around the world voted against a ceasefire, an act, he argued that implicitly condoned the Israeli action, if those nations expected that there would be no casualties.

Euronews interviewer Shona Murray pushed back, stating that the narrative has been that Al-Shifa Hospital has been the center of the Hamas command structure, adding that Al-Shifa has not revealed Hamas tunnels or weaponry.

“You have seen the weaponry, you haven't seen the leaders,” Olmert clarified. “There [is] so many fake news. It’s now part of life. Everything is spread carelessly. Had you asked me two weeks ago, I’d have told you that the center is really in Khan Yunis. What Israel needs to do now is to announce that when the military battle is over, immediately, Israel is prepared to embark on negotiations with the Palestinian Authority for a two-state solution.”

A two-state solution would include Gaza in Palestinian state

This two-state solution, Olmert said, would include the Gaza Strip in the Palestinian state.

Israel has called on Gazan residents to evacuate cities in the southern portion of the Strip, including Khan Yunis. 

The Israeli military dropped leaflets making the request, asking civilians to go to designated areas where Israel could facilitate the transfer of humanitarian aid.

Murray then asked the former prime minister if Israel should conduct an inquiry into why the IDF didn’t show up to the southern Israel communities as quickly as it should have on October 07, a mistake that left many residents of Israel to bear the brunt of Hamas’s brutality for an extended period of time.

“We’ll have to make a very thorough investigation,” Olmert answered. He added that he believed the Israeli leadership, on whose watch the October 07 massacre occurred, drastically underestimated Hamas.

In a recent interview on BBC Newsnight, Olmert explicitly names Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as this leadership, saying that up until October 07, Netanyahu had security responsibility for Gaza, before he completely failed.

In the Euronews interview, he says that Israel has learned not to underestimate Hamas anymore. “They are serious. They are sophisticated. They are just brutal. We will have to destroy them,” he said.

 

OPEC Plus may opt for deeper supply cut

OPEC Plus is most likely to consider additional oil supply cuts when the group meets on November 26. It may be prudent approach because oil prices have dropped by almost 20% since September 2023.

Brent crude has fallen to US$79 per barrel from US$98 in September this year. Concern about subdued demand and a possible surplus next year have kept prices under pressure, despite OPEC Plus production cuts and conflict in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC Plus have already pledged total oil output cuts of 5.16 million barrels per day, or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022. The cuts include 3.66 million bpd by OPEC Plus and additional voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.

There is a growing perception that the existing curbs might be not enough and the group will likely consider if deeper cuts could be implemented.

"It is not pleasant to see that market volatility is greater ahead of the next meeting while fundamentals overall remain solid," one of the OPEC+ Plus sources said.

Ministers are likely to express some thoughts on what to do more, to secure a stable trend.

Ministers from OPEC Plus, which comprises of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, are scheduled to meet on November 26. The group already has a plan to curb supplies by 3.66 million bpd into 2024 made during its last meeting in June.

The price drop has deepened this week, even after OPEC in a monthly report said the oil-market fundamentals remained strong despite negative sentiment and stuck to its relatively high 2024 oil demand growth forecast.

The International Energy Agency, which also updated its outlook this week, has a lower 2024 demand growth forecast and said the market could shift to a surplus in the first quarter.

While some believe more cuts are required, two others say it is too early to say whether further cuts will be discussed. Some believe they may opt for "wait and see".

Most of OPEC Plus members depend on oil as a primary source of government income.

Analysts believe Saudi Arabia's oil cut extension raises the risk of economic contraction this year.

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stressed during previous meetings it wants to see strong compliance with cuts so all members share the burden of producing less.

At its last policy meeting in June, OPEC Plus agreed on a broad deal to limit supply into 2024 and Saudi Arabia pledged a voluntary production cut for July of one million bpd that it has since extended to last until the end of 2023.

Some analysts including Energy Aspects expect Saudi Arabia to keep the voluntary cut to at least the first quarter of 2024.

 

 

Muslim countries seek Chinese help in resolving Gaza conflict

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan announced that China will be the first destination for the Islamic Ministerial Committee’s mission to exert international pressure aimed at bringing an end to the conflict in Gaza.

Addressing reporters during the Manama Dialogue 2023, Prince Faisal revealed that ministers designated by Arab and Islamic leaders, following the recent summit in Riyadh, will embark on their journey to Beijing on Monday.

The Saudi foreign minister emphasized that following their visit to China, the committee will visit several capitals to convey a resounding message emphasizing the urgency of an immediate ceasefire and facilitating the entry of relief and humanitarian aid into Gaza.

“We must strive to swiftly resolve this crisis and put an end to the war being waged against Gaza,” stated Prince Faisal.

The extraordinary joint Arab-Islamic Summit issued a resolution tasking the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Palestine to initiate immediate international action on behalf of all member states of the OIC and the Arab League.

The goal is to formulate an international initiative to halt the war in Gaza and push for a genuine and serious political process, leading to permanent and comprehensive peace in accordance with established international references.

On the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue 2023, the Saudi Foreign Minister met with Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

During their meeting, they discussed the developments in Gaza and its surroundings. Prince Faisal reiterated Saudi Arabia’s rejection of the ongoing military escalation and violations by Israeli occupation forces against civilians.

He underscored the importance of halting the escalation and preventing the forced displacement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.

Prince Faisal emphasized the urgency of establishing humanitarian corridors to assist children, women, and civilians in Gaza.

Additionally, he called on the international community to condemn the blatant violations of international humanitarian law committed by Israeli forces against the people in Gaza.

Furthermore, Prince Faisal met with the UK’s Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy, where they discussed the evolving military escalation in the Gaza Strip.

Both parties emphasized the importance of an immediate ceasefire and allowing humanitarian organizations to deliver urgent aid to Gaza.

The Saudi foreign minister reiterated the significance of the international community playing an active role in putting an end to the military escalation and preventing the forced displacement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip.

 

A new cold war the world is getting used to

According to Shawn Donnan of Bloomberg, the relationship between the United States and China is the most important and arguably most fraught in the world today. The meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping near San Francisco was unequivocally the most important event in the global economy this week.

The summit did what was intended by both sides. It put a floor under the relationship and re-established lines of communication. The danger of tensions spiraling out of control seems less today than they did a week ago.

It was hard to be in San Francisco digesting the geopolitical theater and not come to the conclusion that this is what a 21st century Cold War looks like.

Jude Blanchette, a longtime China watcher based in Washington, was prescient when he said ahead of this week’s meeting that managing a geopolitical rivalry isn’t sexy. It’s full of small but important steps that never really resolve the fundamental differences. And that’s what we got.

The two leaders agreed to resume communications between their militaries and to work together to stem the flow from China to the US of precursors and pill presses that are fueling America’s fentanyl crisis. There were agreements before and during the summit to work together to address the climate crisis and mull the consequences of artificial intelligence.

The fundamental differences between the two nations won’t go away. One is a democracy, the other a single-party Communist state. One has a market economy, the other an increasingly state-directed one. They are both in a competition that many on either side see as existential.

Xi deployed a smile rarely seen at home and sought to charm US business leaders who gave him a standing ovation. He pledged to send pandas that China had recalled just weeks before.

Biden rolled out a picture of a young Xi in front of the Golden Gate Bridge and sought to make him comfortable. But he also couldn’t resist doubling down and calling Xi a dictator again after he had left, laying it out as a plain factual label rather than a potential slight.

How this all plays out in 2024 with presidential elections coming in Taiwan in January and the US in November isn’t yet scripted.

Economics matter if it is power you want. Biden went into the meeting with the wind at his back as one US official put it thanks to an economy that has recovered better than its peers from the pandemic shock. And Xi was clearly on a charm offensive given the foreign investment he needs to turn around a slowing Chinese economy.

That could change in the months to come. There are signs the US economy is slowing. Consumers are still grumpy about inflation and more recently the higher interest rates deployed to rein it in.

Both sides have their own weaknesses, in other words. Xi has an economy undergoing a structural slowdown based in large part on demographics. Biden has an economy which many Americans still aren’t convinced works for them.

Historians will get to decide in the years to come whether this week’s meeting marked a turning point. But, regardless of whether they decide history turned or not, they very likely will agree we are living through a cold war that we’re all just getting used to.