Jordan to host talks on Syria’s return to Arab League

Jordan will host a meeting of Arab foreign ministers and Syria's top diplomat on Monday to discuss Syria's return to the Arab League as part of a broader political settlement of Syria's more than decade-old conflict, officials said.

The meeting, to be attended by Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad and his counterparts from Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, would discuss a Jordanian plan to achieve a political settlement of the conflict, Jordanian government officials said.

The meeting comes two weeks after talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia between the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, failed to reach agreement on Syria's possible return to the Arab fold.

It is the first such meeting with a top Syrian official by a group of Arab states - most of whom endorsed the move to suspend Syria's membership of the League in 2011 after a crackdown on protesters denouncing President Bashar al-Assad's authoritarian rule escalated into a devastating civil war.

Arab states and those most affected by the conflict are trying to reach consensus on whether to invite Assad to the Arab League summit on May 19 in Riyadh, to discuss the pace of normalizing ties with Assad and on what terms Syria could be allowed back.

Officials said the Jordanian initiative calls on Damascus to engage with Arab governments collectively on a step-by-step road map to end the conflict.

It would include tackling the issue of refugees, the fate of thousands of missing detainees, drug smuggling between Syria and the Gulf through Jordan and the presence of Iranian militias in Syria.

Regional superpower Saudi Arabia has resisted normalizing relations with Assad but said after its rapprochement with Iran - Syria's key regional ally - a new approach was needed with Damascus, which is under Western sanctions.

At the Jeddah meeting there was resistance to the move to invite Assad to the Arab League summit, with Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait saying it was premature before Damascus accepts to negotiate a peace plan.

Jordan's foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, met on Sunday with visiting US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, officials said.

Washington does not wish to change its policy towards the Syrian government which it terms a ‘rogue’ state, has urged Arab states that have shifted their stance to get something in return for engaging with Assad once again.

Get ready for ‘President Kamala Harris’

The White House is preparing for the massive role Kamala Harris will have to play in the 2024 campaign. She has taken multiple hits as vice president, and her political stock has plummeted following criticism on multiple fronts. 

Yet she remains a key player in Biden world, with even more importance in a reelection campaign where the 80-year-old president’s age will be a key issue with voters.

Now the White House is focused on building Harris up as it prepares for what could be a rematch next year with former President Trump.

“There is an effort to re-launch her. I think with the age thing, the VP becomes more important, and it’s not necessarily to improve her, but to make her higher profile,” said a former Democratic campaign official.

Speaking about the Biden team’s prior work to diminish Harris’s profile, the Democrat added, “I don’t think there are any regrets.”

Harris was featured frequently in Biden’s reelection launch video this week. She and second gentleman Doug Emhoff appear just 15 seconds into the three-minute clip, a sign the campaign will not shy away from her as an asset who can connect with key voting blocs.

White House officials believe she has hit her stride as a leading voice in the administration on fighting back against GOP efforts to restrict abortion access. Hours after Biden launched his campaign, Harris spoke at a political event focused on reproductive rights, where she was greeted with chants of four more years.

But while Harris’s allies are keen to promote her as a boost to the campaign, Republicans appear just as eager to frame her as a drag on the ticket, especially through the lens of Biden’s age.

“I think we can all be very clear and say with a matter of fact that if you vote for Joe Biden, you really are counting on a President Harris, because the idea that he would make it until 86 years old is not something that I think is likely,” Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said this week. 

“But really, are we willing to say we’re OK with a President Kamala Harris?” Haley asked.

Her comments underscore a looming balancing act for the Biden campaign: How to reassure voters about Harris when she is just a heartbeat away from the presidency without elevating her too much and drawing more attention to the issue of Biden’s age.

“Of course the Biden campaign is not going to make Harris more prominent, because they’re not going to want to send a signal that Harris is more important, because something might happen to Biden in office,” said Danny Hayes, a political science professor at George Washington University.

“Voters are still voting first and foremost for or against Biden, not Harris,” he added.

Harris entered the 2020 presidential race as a top-tier candidate for the nomination. But her campaign was plagued by personnel and messaging issues, and perhaps her most notable moment was a clash with Biden on the debate stage over student busing policy.

In her first year as vice president, Harris faced criticism over frequent staffing turnover and her handling of migration from Central America, a complex issue Biden tasked her with leading. Harris became a punching bag for Republicans who blamed her for problems at the southern border, and she drew criticism from Democrats when she told migrants not to come to the US.

Harris’s favorability rating has hovered in the low 40% range for much of her time as vice president. A Fox News poll published this week showed her favorability rating at 41%, including 73% among Democrats. The same poll put Biden’s favorability at 44%.

Harris has seemingly found her footing over the past year, leading the administration’s fight against abortion restrictions in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade. In recent weeks she made high-profile trips to Africa and Tennessee, the latter coming after three Democratic state lawmakers were targeted for expulsion over gun violence protests.

“There is an effort to lift her up around the apparatus, but the other part of it is people are just now paying attention. She didn’t just start traveling, she didn’t just start lifting up these issues,” a source close to the vice president’s office told The Hill.

Harris has also taken on issues related to foreign policy, climate and small businesses. Over a year ago, she started traveling two to three times a week, including on five overseas trips.

“I’m actually thrilled to see her hitting a good groove, which to me sort of makes sense at this time of the presidential campaign. On abortion rights but also guns, you’ve seen her step up in a way that we haven’t up until this point,” said David Thomas, a partner at Mehlman Consulting and former deputy director of legislative affairs for former Vice President Al Gore.

Taking on those issues, especially reproductive rights, has elevated Harris’s profile and required her to traverse the country and meet with local officials, which can all be an asset to the 2024 ticket.

“Despite what maybe people think of her inside the beltway, she really excites the Democratic base, and that’s why we see her out in the country more often, talking to Democrats,” Thomas said.

After Harris’s challenges with staffing early on in the administration, she has brought on two top aides who her supporters say will be pivotal to her inner circle as the campaign picks up. Kelsey Smith, a longtime aide to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was hired as director of scheduling and advice for the vice president in January, and Lorraine Voles just hit her one-year mark as chief of staff.

There is also a belief Harris will be aided by the presence of Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, who worked with Harris when she was a California senator and when she ran for president in 2020.

“She’s got this challenge of how many reboots are they going do,” said one Democratic strategist. “For Kamala, it’s always going to come down to can she put a good team together and execute.”

 

Iran, Pakistan explore ways to boost trade

Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Mohammad-Ali Hosseini and Pakistani Finance Minister Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar discussed the ways for increasing trade between the two countries in a meeting in Islamabad on Sunday.

Expressing their satisfaction that the trade between the two countries exceeded US$2 billion, the two sides emphasized the need to take more effective steps to strengthen economic cooperation and help expand trade relations.

During the meeting, the minister said that Pakistan attaches great importance to its relations with the friendly and brotherly country of Iran.

Appreciating the efforts of the Iranian ambassador during his diplomatic mission in Pakistan in order to strengthen the brotherly relations between the two neighboring countries, Senator Ishaq Dar praised the measures taken especially in the commercial and economic fields.

Expressing their satisfaction with the value of trade between Iran and Pakistan, which has exceeded US$2 billion, the two sides emphasized the need to identify new ways to help increase trade and develop economic cooperation.

Emphasizing the country's economic outlook, Pakistan's finance minister expressed confidence that despite economic challenges, Pakistan is on the path of progress and development.

Iranian ambassador to Pakistan for his part, appreciated the cooperation and support of the Pakistani government for the development of bilateral relations in various fields, and stated that the potential capacities of Iran and Pakistan are the main factor for the expansion of joint cooperation.

He added that bilateral trade between Iran and Pakistan has now reached US$2.4 billion, but it is not compatible with the good political and people relations of the two neighbors and more efforts should be made to support the business community of the two countries.

Back in January, Iran and Pakistan signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to facilitate bilateral trade between the two countries.

The MOU was signed by Head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization (TPO) Alireza Peyman-Pak and Head of the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) Muhammad Zubair Motiwala.

Based on the MOU, which was signed on the sidelines of Iran’s Exclusive Exhibition in Karachi, the parties pledged to exchange business information, support each other’s private sectors, and provide the conditions and context for the presence of their trade delegations in the other country.

It was also agreed that both sides would take all the necessary measures to facilitate holding exhibitions in the opposite country, whenever required.

Speaking in the signing ceremony, Peyman-Pak said that signing this MOU was indicative of the two sides’ determination for removing the obstacles in the way of bilateral trade and prepares the ground for the businesspersons of both sides to bolster cooperation.

He considered the holding of exclusive exhibitions, exchanging trade delegations and investment in joint production units as positive steps for knowing the capacities and needs of the two countries and expressed hope that such events would continue.

The TPO head further mentioned some obstacles and infrastructural problems that are hindering the two countries' mutual trade, including lack of banking relations, problems related to sea transportation and logistics, and tariff-related issues, saying that the Iranian government is willing to resolve such problems in collaboration with the Pakistani government.

Motiwala, for his part, said that the signed MOU is regarded as a major step to enhance bilateral trade to reach the target of US$5 billion annually.

 

Iran to help Lebanon overcome energy crisis

Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has asserted that Iran can fix Lebanon’s energy shortage through bilateral collaboration with the Arab country, noting the US sanctions on the Islamic Republic cannot affect such an endeavor.

Amir Abdollahian told a news conference in Beirut that during his three-day visit to Lebanon, he assured Lebanese authorities that Iran can address the electricity issue if the two nations sign a deal for cooperation.

“Of course, the US pressures and fear-mongering about sanctions are among the problems in this regard, but you should know that the US sanctions have failed,” he added.

He went on to stress that Tehran, which is subject to strict US sanctions, exports oil and other kinds of fuel to several nations, including Iraq.

“Given Iran’s capabilities, bilateral cooperation in the electricity and gas sectors is a profitable and two-way business both for Lebanon and Iran, and of course, it helps to improve the Lebanese people’s welfare,” the top Iranian diplomat highlighted. 

In this respect, talks between Tehran and Beirut are progressing, according to Amir Abdollahian, who expressed hope that the parties will be able to take concrete action following the conclusion of the political processes in Lebanon and the election of the nation's president.

The acute fuel crisis in Lebanon has caused several homes and businesses to struggle with ongoing power outages, and the country’s economic collapse since 2019 has slowed down fuel imports for government facilities.

Last year, after Hezbollah requested Iranian assistance to alleviate the energy shortfall in the Lebanon, Iran provided much-needed petroleum shipments via Syria.

Regarding Lebanon’s political issues, Amir Abdollahian stated that Iran has consistently backed any accord reached by the Lebanese parties and will use its resources to assist the Arab nation in completing its political process.

Iran would back the option, the foreign minister stated, if all Lebanese parties agreed to elect a Christian president in accordance with the nation’s constitution.

Amir Abdollahian further announced that Iran and Saudi Arabia will reopen their embassies and general consulates in the upcoming days, about two months after the two regional powerhouses decided to mend their strained relations that had been broken seven years earlier.

The senior diplomat pointed out that the restoration of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia will have positive effects on regional countries, especially Lebanon, and would start new chapter in their relationship.

 

World military expenditure reaches new record high as European spending surges

Total global military expenditure increased by 3.7% in real terms in 2022, to reach a new high of US$2,240 billion. Military expenditure in Europe saw its steepest YoY increase in at least 30 years. The three largest spenders in 2022—the United States, China and Russia—accounted for 56% of the world total, according to new data on global military spending published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

World military spending grew for the eighth consecutive year in 2022 to an all-time high of US$2,240 billion. By far the sharpest rise in spending (13%) was seen in Europe and was largely accounted for by Russian and Ukrainian spending. However, military aid to Ukraine and concerns about a heightened threat from Russia strongly influenced many other states’ spending decisions, as did tensions in East Asia.

‘The continuous rise in global military expenditure in recent years is a sign that we are living in an increasingly insecure world,’ said Dr Nan Tian, Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. ‘States are bolstering military strength in response to a deteriorating security environment, which they do not foresee improving in the near future.’

Military expenditure by states in Central and Western Europe totaled US$345 billion in 2022. In real terms, spending by these states for the first time surpassed that in 1989, as the cold war was ending, and was 30% higher than in 2013. Several states significantly increased their military spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, while others announced plans to raise spending levels over periods of up to a decade.

‘The invasion of Ukraine had an immediate impact on military spending decisions in Central and Western Europe. This included multi-year plans to boost spending from several governments,’ said Dr Diego Lopes da Silva, Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. As a result, we can reasonably expect military expenditure in Central and Western Europe to keep rising in the years ahead.

Some of the sharpest increases were seen in Finland (up 36%), Lithuania (up 27%), Sweden ( up12%) and Poland (up 11%).

‘While the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 certainly affected military spending decisions in 2022, concerns about Russian aggression have been building for much longer,’ said Lorenzo Scarazzato, Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. ‘Many former Eastern bloc states have more than doubled their military spending since 2014, the year when Russia annexed Crimea.’

Russian military spending grew by an estimated 9.2% cent in 2022, to around US$86.4 billion. This was equivalent to 4.1% of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, up from 3.7% of GDP in 2021.

Numbers released by Russia in late 2022 show that spending on national defence, the largest component of Russian military expenditure, was already 34% higher, in nominal terms, than in budgetary plans drawn up in 2021.

‘The difference between Russia’s budgetary plans and its actual military spending in 2022 suggests the invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia far more than it anticipated,’ said Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program.

Ukraine’s military spending reached US$44.0 billion in 2022. At 640%, this was the highest single-year increase in a country’s military expenditure ever recorded in SIPRI data. As a result of the increase and the war-related damage to Ukraine’s economy, the military burden (military spending as a share of GDP) shot up to 34% of GDP in 2022, from 3.2% in 2021.

The United States remains by far the world’s biggest military spender. US military spending reached US$877 billion in 2022, which was 39% of total global military spending and three times more than the amount spent by China, the world’s second largest spender.

The 0.7% real-terms increase in US spending in 2022 would have been even greater had it not been for the highest levels of inflation since 1981.

“The increase in the US military spending in 2022 was largely accounted for by the unprecedented level of financial military aid it provided to Ukraine,” said Dr Nan Tian, SIPRI Senior Researcher. “Given the scale of US spending, even a minor increase in percentage terms has a significant impact on the level of global military expenditure.”

US financial military aid to Ukraine totaled US$19.9 billion in 2022. Although this was the largest amount of military aid given by any country to a single beneficiary in any year since the cold war, it represented only 2.3% of total US military spending.

In 2022 the US allocated US$295 billion to military operations and maintenance, US$264 billion to procurement and research and development, and US$167 billion to military personnel.

China and Japan lead continued spending increase in Asia and Oceania. The combined military expenditure of countries in Asia and Oceania was US$575 billion. This was 2.7% more than in 2021 and 45% more than in 2013, continuing an uninterrupted upward trend dating back to at least 1989.

China remained the world’s second largest military spender, allocating an estimated US$292 billion in 2022. This was 4.2% more than in 2021 and 63% more than in 2013. China’s military expenditure has increased for 28 consecutive years.

Japan’s military spending increased by 5.9% between 2021 and 2022, reaching US$46.0 billion, or 1.1% of GDP. This was the highest level of Japanese military spending since 1960. A new national security strategy published in 2022 sets out ambitious plans to increase Japan’s military capability over the coming decade in response to perceived growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia.

“Japan is undergoing a profound shift in its military policy,’ said Xiao Liang, Researcher with SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Program. “The post-war restraints Japan imposed on its military spending and military capabilities seem to be loosening.”

Even one American in Iraq is too many, says Iranian President

The United States is an unreliable friend, and Iraq should not allow any US troops on its territory, Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told visiting Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid on Saturday.

Iran, which has strong ties with Iraq, opposes the US military presence on its borders in Iraq and the Gulf, saying Western military intervention is the root of insecurity in the region.

"Americans are not friends of Iraq. Americans are not friends with anyone and are not even loyal to their European friends," state media quoted Khamenei as saying.

US national security agencies are investigating after a leak of classified documents has suggested the United States spied on allies including Ukraine.

"Even the presence of one American in Iraq is too much," Khamenei told Rashid, who was in Tehran with a delegation to boost ties between the two neighbours.

The United States has some 2,500 troops in Iraq to help advice and assist local troops in combating Islamic State, which in 2014 seized territory in the country.

"Iraq's main effort is to deepen relations with Iran and resolve certain remaining issues between the two countries," Rashid was quoted as saying, without referring to Iraq's ties with the United States.

Armenia and Azerbaijan to hold peace talks in Washington on Sunday

Armenia and Azerbaijan will hold a new round of talks in Washington on Sunday to try to normalize relations, Yerevan said on Saturday, after weeks of rising tensions over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Armed forces from the two Caucasus neighbors have frequently exchanged fire amid disputes over the mountain enclave, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but populated mainly by ethnic Armenians.

Azerbaijan set up a new checkpoint last Sunday on the Lachin corridor, a road to Karabakh that passes through Azeri territory, in a move that Armenia that called a gross violation of a 2020 ceasefire.

"From April 30 Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Ararat Mirzoyan will be in Washington DC on a working visit. The next round of discussions on the agreement on normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is scheduled," the spokesperson, Ani Badalyan, said on her official Facebook page.

Later on Saturday, the Armenian defence ministry said one of its soldiers had been injured by shot fired by Azeri forces near the village of Tegh in Armenia's southern Syunik province, Tass news agency said.

Tegh is the last village on the Lachin Corridor in Armenia before it enters Azeri territory.

Russian peacekeepers were deployed in 2020 to end a war, the second that Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought over the enclave since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.

Despite years of attempted mediation between them, Armenia and Azerbaijan have yet to reach a peace agreement that would settle outstanding issues such as the demarcation of borders and return of prisoners.