Friday, 10 January 2025

PSX benchmark index declines 3.7%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed volatility throughout the week, with the benchmark KSE-100 index posting a weekly loss of 4,339 points or 3.7%WoW to close at 113,247 points on Friday, January 10, 2025.

The volatility was led by profit taking and portfolio adjustments at year-start. Major contributing sectors to the decline in the index were Commercial Banks, Oil & Gas Marketing Companies, Technology & Communication.

T-Bills yields in the recent auction declined marginally to 11.8% for the 3 to 12 months paper, implying further potential rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled for January 27.

Statement by the Prime Minister hinting at more room for reduction in policy rate, boosted investors’ optimism.

On the macroeconomic front, worker’s remittances for December 2024 were reported at US$3.08 billion, taking 1HFY25 remittances balance to US$17.8 billion.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decreased by US$15 million to US$11.7 billion as of January 03, 2025.

Market participation decreased significantly, with average daily traded volume declining by 25.1%WoW to 781 million shares, from one billion shares traded a week ago.

On the currency front, PKR remained stable against the greenback throughout the week.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) UAE rolls over US$2 billion loan, 2) Shehbaz stresses need to honor IMF commitments, 3) GoP aims to cut power tariff by up to PKR12 per unit and 4) Pakistan poised to get US$20 billion World Bank loan.

Inv. Bank/ Inv. Cos/ Securities Cos., Sugar & Allied Products and Real Estate were amongst the top performers, while Jute, Leasing Companies, Refinery, Oil & Gas Marketing companies and Paper & Board were amongst the worst performers.

Major net selling was recorded by Banks with a net sell of US$6.2 million, Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$10.0 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: JDWS, MUREB, PKGP, SCBPL, and LCI, while the laggards included: PSX, PGLC, NRL, SNGP, and PKGS.

According to AKD Securities, PSX is expected to remain on its positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed income securities to equities amid falling fixed income yields.

With easing inflation, the upcoming MPC meeting will remain a key focus.

Over the medium term, the KSE-100 is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum through CY25, primarily driven by the strong profitability of fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.


 

 

Gaza death toll grossly understated

A peer-reviewed analysis published in The Lancet on Thursday found that the official Gaza death toll reported by the enclave's Ministry of Health between October 07, 2023 and June 30, 2024 was likely a 41% undercount, a finding that underscores the devastation wrought by Israel's assault on the Palestinian territory and the difficulties of collecting accurate data amid relentless bombing.

During the period examined by the new study, Gaza's health ministry (MoH) reported that 37,877 people had been killed in Israeli attacks. But the Lancet analysis estimates that the death toll during that period was 64,260, with women, children, and the elderly accounting for nearly 60% of the deaths for which details were available. That count only includes "deaths due to traumatic injury," leaving out deaths from starvation, cold, and disease.

To reach their estimate, the authors of the new study "composed three lists from successive MoH-collected hospital morgue data, an MoH online survey, and obituaries published on public social media pages" and "manually scraped information from open-source social media platforms, including specific obituary pages for Gaza shaheed, martyrs of Gaza, and The Palestinian Information Center to create our third capture-recapture list."

"These pages are widely used obituary spaces where relatives and friends inform their networks about deaths, offer condolences and prayers, and honor people known as martyrs (those killed in war)," the authors write. "The platforms span multiple social media channels, including X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and Telegram. Throughout the study period, these pages were updated periodically and consistently, providing a comprehensive source of information on casualties. Obituaries typically included names, age at death, and date and location of death, and were often accompanied by photographs and personal stories. We translated English posts into Arabic to match names across lists and excluded deaths attributed to non-traumatic injuries."

The group of authors—which includes academics from the United Kingdom, the United States, and Japan—said the findings "show an exceptionally high mortality rate in the Gaza Strip during the period studied" and highlight "the urgent need for interventions to prevent further loss of life and illuminate important patterns in the conduct of the war."

Establishing an accurate count of the number of people killed in Israel's 15-month assault on the Gaza Strip, which began in the wake of a deadly Hamas-led attack, has been made extremely difficult by the Israeli military's incessant bombing and destruction of the enclave's medical infrastructure. There are also tens of thousands of people believed to be missing under the ruins of Gaza homes and buildings.

The Lancet study notes, "The escalation of Israeli military ground operations and attacks on healthcare facilities severely disrupted" Gaza officials' data-collection efforts. Prior to October 7, 2023, the MoH "had achieved good accuracy in mortality documentation, with underreporting estimated at 13%," the new analysis notes, and its figures were widely considered reliable.

Since Israel launched its catastrophic response to the Hamas-led attack, US lawmakers and leaders who have backed Israel's assault—including President Joe Biden—have openly cast doubt on the ministry's data. Currently, the MoH estimates that more than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed since October 07, 2023.

Last month, the US Congress approved a sprawling military policy bill that included a provision barring the Pentagon from publicly citing as "authoritative" death toll figures from Gaza's health ministry. Biden signed the measure into law on December 23, 2024.

"This is an alarming erasure of the suffering of the Palestinian people, ignoring the human toll of ongoing violence," Rep. Ilhan Omar, who voted against the legislation, told The Intercept following House passage of the measure.

 

Thursday, 9 January 2025

Lebanon: Army chief elected president

Lebanese parliament elected Army Chief Joseph Aoun head of state on Thursday, filling the vacant presidency with a general who has US support and showing the weakened sway of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group after its devastating war with Israel, reports Reuters.

In a speech to the chamber, Aoun, 60, vowed to work to ensure the state has the exclusive right to carry arms, drawing loud applause as lawmakers from Hezbollah, which runs its own military forces, sat still.

He promised to rebuild south Lebanon and other parts of the country he said had been destroyed by Israel, and also to prevent Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which was mired in deep economic and political crises even before the latest conflict. "Today, a new phase in the history of Lebanon begins," he said.

His election reflected shifts in the power balance in Lebanon and the wider Middle East, with Shi'ite Muslim Hezbollah badly pummeled from last year's war, and its Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad toppled in December 2024. It also indicated a revival of Saudi influence in a country where Riyadh's role was eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah long ago.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar congratulated Lebanon, saying on X he hoped Aoun's election would contribute towards stability and good neighborly relations.

US ambassador Lisa Johnson, attending the session, told Reuters she was "very happy" with Aoun's election.

The presidency, reserved for a Maronite Christian in Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022, with deeply divided factions unable to agree on a candidate able to win enough votes in the 128-seat parliament.

Joseph Aoun fell short of the 86 votes needed in a first round vote, but crossed the threshold with 99 votes in a second round, after lawmakers from Hezbollah and its Shi'ite ally the Amal Movement backed him.

Hezbollah lawmaker Mohammed Raad said that by delaying their vote for Aoun, the group had "sent a message that we are the guardians of national consensus".

Momentum built behind Aoun on Wednesday as Hezbollah's long preferred candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, withdrew and declared support for the army commander, and as French and Saudi envoys shuttled around Beirut, urging his election in meetings with politicians, three Lebanese political sources said.

A source close to the Saudi royal court said French, Saudi, and US envoys had told Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close Hezbollah ally that international financial assistance - including from Saudi Arabia - hinged on Aoun's election.

"There is a very clear message from the international community that they are ready to support Lebanon, but that needs a president, a government," Michel Mouawad, a Christian lawmaker opposed to Hezbollah who voted for Aoun, told Reuters.

"We did get a message from Saudi of support," he added.

The Saudi king and crown prince congratulated Aoun.

 


لاس اینجلس کی تباہی یا مکافات عمل

دنیا میں بہت سے لوگ اللہ اور مکافات عمل پر یقین نہیں رکھتے۔ آج صبح جب نیٹ پر لاس اینجلس کی تباہی کی وڈیوز اور تصاویر دیکھیں تو قرآن کی آیات جس میں ہاتھی والوں کی ابابیل کے ذریعے تباہی کا ذکر ہے یاد آگیں۔ بظاہریہ دو تصاویر ہیں ایک لاس اینجلس کی دوسری غزہ کی ایک میں اللہ کا عذاب اور دوسری میں امریکی بموں سے تباہی۔

 

Wednesday, 8 January 2025

Iran thwarts attack on Zahedan police station

According to media reports, Iranian police in southeastern Sistan and Baluchestan province thwarted an attempted attack on a police station in Zahedan. “The armed assault on the Chashmeh Ziarat police station was met with failure thanks to the alertness of the officers.” 

The statement further elaborated that the attempt occurred Monday night, adding that the officers' swift and effective response ensured that there were no casualties or property damage. “With their vigilance and superior firepower, the officers managed to repel the attackers, who chose to flee rather than face capture,” the police center reported. 

The attackers are now being pursued, the notice added. “These individuals are under pursuit and, with the cooperation of the local community, they will soon be identified, apprehended, and handed over to justice.”

Sistan and Baluchestan Province has long been a target of foreign-backed terrorist outfits seeking to destabilize Iran.

Iranian forces have repeatedly thwarted such plots, showcasing the nation's resolve to combat terrorism and maintain its sovereignty and security.

The latest incident comes amidst a stepped-up anti-terrorism campaign by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). 

The IRGC carried out a large-scale drill codenamed "Martyrs of Security" over several months, commencing in late October 2024.

These operations, which also involved the Ministry of Intelligence and police forces, resulted in the elimination of at least three terror teams.

Authorities stated that one of those arrested is linked to the so-called Jaish al-Adl, the terrorist group that claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a police convoy in Taftan County in October 2024.
 

 

US holds old grudge against Iran, Khamenei

In a meeting commemorating the 1978 Qom uprising against the Pahlavi regime, held on its anniversary, January 08, 2025, Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei addressed thousands from Qom Province at the Imam Khomeini Hussainiyah. 

The Leader connected Iran's current stance against negotiating with the US to the Islamic Revolution, arguing that US hostility arises from the loss of political and economic advantages that resulted from the revolution.

He emphasized the necessity of drawing lessons from the uprising of the 19th of Dey (January 9, 1978), identifying the "relentless, substantial, and effective" efforts of media and social media activists to "tear down the veil of the enemy's illusion of power and to safeguard public opinion" as pressing needs of today.

Ayatollah Khamenei considered the 19 Dey uprising in Qom to contain various lessons and insights, underscoring that the most important lesson from that day is that it reveals what kind of Iran Washington desires and prefers.

Highlighting President Carter's visit to Tehran on December 31, 1977, and his disingenuous commendation of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as well as Carter’s portrayal of Pahlavi Iran as an “island of stability,” Ayatollah Khamenei explained, “The Iran that Carter deemed desirable for America in 1977 was, in terms of foreign policy, entirely subservient to the US and served to secure American interests. Domestically, it witnessed the severe suppression of all opposition movements, as well as any divergent viewpoints from the regime.”

The Leader of the Islamic Revolution remarked that, during that period, the United States envisioned an ideal Iran characterized by immense oil revenues accompanied by stark economic stratification. In terms of science and technology, they desired a nation that remained underdeveloped, while culturally, they sought a society where corruption, promiscuity, and Western decadence would proliferate daily.

He emphasized that the uprising of the 19th of Dey freed "the ideal Iran for the US" from America’s clutches. However, he noted that “the US still yearns for that vision of Iran, but just as Carter took this dream to the grave, so too will other Americans.”

According to Ayatollah Khamenei, the victory of the Islamic Revolution created a crack in the concrete wall of Global Arrogance and shook the West’s barrier. He added, “Another lesson of the 19th of Dey uprising is that we must safeguard our public opinion against enemy propaganda.”

Referring to the publication of an insulting article against Imam Khomeini in a newspaper in January 1978, the Leader highlighted the role of propaganda utilized by the United States and the Pahlavi regime. 

“They intended to silence the Zulfiqar of Imam Khomeini’s tongue, which, from near the sacred shrine of the Commander of the Faithful [Imam Ali], brought warmth and hope to people’s hearts. However, the people of Qom, with vigilance and distrust of American and Pahlavi propaganda, thwarted that move.”

Ayatollah Khamenei pointed to the exponential increase in the use of propaganda tools by the United States to consolidate the outcomes of its military actions, saying, “In Gaza, they massacred tens of thousands of people, yet they could not eliminate Resistance with their [military] hardware. In Lebanon, they martyred a figure like Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah and other commanders, but Hezbollah was not eradicated and will not be eradicated.”

In another part of his speech, the Leader described Iran as a “strategic pinnacle” in the world, endowed with valuable blessings such as natural resources and above-average human resources. 

He said, “For several decades, starting around 80 years ago, Iran was essentially owned by America. But the Islamic Revolution freed the country from America’s grip, and this is why they will not forget their resentment over the Islamic Revolution.”

The Leader of the Islamic Revolution addressed questions raised by some individuals about why the Islamic Republic, despite its relations with European countries, refuses to negotiate or establish ties with the United States. He responded, “Pre-revolution Iran was under American ownership, but the Islamic Revolution liberated that enormous political and economic opportunity from US control. Therefore, their grudge toward the Revolution is [deeply rooted], and this differs significantly from European countries.”

Ayatollah Khamenei described one of the primary demands of Global Arrogance, led by the United States, as ensuring their interests and considerations are factored into the decisions of other nations, including Iran.

Stressing the dangers of yielding to such demands, he said, “Succumbing to America’s excessive demand undermines democracy and the nature of democracy in the country.”

“The people have voted for officials to secure their own interests, not those of America. Therefore, decision-makers must focus solely on the interests of the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic and disregard the interests of America and the Zionists entirely, as they are fundamentally hostile to our nation and the Islamic Republic, wishing for the destruction of Iran.”

He further pointed to the United States’ failure to reclaim control over Iran despite significant efforts and costs over the past 46 years, calling this another reason for their grudge toward the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic.

He remarked, “America has been defeated in this country and seeks to compensate for that defeat. As a result, they pursue enmity against the Iranian people in every way they can.”

 

India keeps mum on extradition of Hasina

Bangladeshi foreign adviser Md Touhid Hossain has said they have not received any response from India on extradition of Sheikh Hasina. He made this remark while answering queries from newsmen at the foreign ministry on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, New Delhi has extended the tenure of visa of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

When asked about the development, Touhid Hossain said, “Like you, I have also learnt from the newspaper. What can we do?”

When asked whether you received any response to the letter seeking repatriation of Sheikh Hasina, the adviser said, “We have not received any response to the letter sent to India for the repatriation of Sheikh Hasina.”

On December 23, 2024 Bangladesh had sent a letter to India for extraditing former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on charges of crimes against humanity.

Sheikh Hasina has been staying in India since she fled to India on August 05, 2024. Since then Bangladesh is making calls to bring her home back.

According to a report of The Hindustan Times, India has extended the tenure of visa for Sheikh Hasina.

The report also read that Hasina, 77, fled to India after stepping down amid nationwide protests. She has not been allowed to communicate with other people since she arrived at Hindon airbase on August 05. She has been moved to a safehouse in Delhi.

The former prime minister’s visa was recently extended to facilitate her stay in the country, the people said on condition of anonymity.

They dismissed speculation about Hasina being granted asylum in the country by pointing out that India doesn’t have a specific law for dealing with refugees and matters such as asylum.