Restricting Trading of Cash Settled Crude Oil Contracts

After closely observing commodity markets for more than a decade, one conclusion becomes unavoidable: the system has drifted far from its original purpose. Commodity futures were designed to help producers and consumers manage risk. Instead, they have become playgrounds for speculative capital. The overwhelming dominance of cash-settled crude oil contracts —now estimated to account for over 90% of global energy trades—has allowed speculation to overshadow genuine hedging. It is time to reconsider this model and work toward a gradual reduction of trading in cash-settled crude oil contracts.

Cash settlement fundamentally changes the nature of commodity markets. When traders can enter and exit massive positions without ever taking delivery, the market becomes unanchored from physical realities. Price discovery—the core justification for futures markets—suffers. Prices increasingly reflect sentiment, algorithms, and fund-driven volatility, rather than real supply–demand conditions. Producers are left navigating distorted signals; consumers face unpredictable swings that have little to do with harvests, inventories, or shipping flows.

The ultimate beneficiaries of this system are large speculators—most notably fund managers—who profit from volatility without any connection to the underlying commodity. With no storage constraints or delivery obligations, speculative capital can dominate volumes and dictate market direction. Meanwhile, genuine hedgers find themselves pushed to the margins of markets supposedly created for them.

None of this suggests that cash-settled contracts should be banned overnight. Liquidity matters. But the current balance is unhealthy and unsustainable. A phased rebalancing is both practical and necessary. Exchanges should gradually increase the share of physically deliverable contracts, strengthen warehouse receipt systems, and enforce stricter inventory reporting. Regulators should impose higher margins on purely speculative cash-settled positions to curb excessive leverage.

Physical delivery brings discipline. It forces markets to acknowledge storage capacity, transport costs, stock levels, and real economic flows. It restores transparency and aligns futures pricing with fundamentals. More importantly, it reduces the outsized influence of speculative capital on commodities that are crucial for food security, energy planning, and industrial production.

Commodity markets must serve the real economy, not the speculative ambitions of a few. The dominance of cash-settled trading has diluted that purpose. A deliberate move toward more physically grounded trading is essential to restore credibility, stability, and fairness in global commodity markets.

 

 

 

Israel kills Hezbollah military leader Tabtabai

According to Reuters, Israel killed militant group Hezbollah's top military official in an airstrike on a southern suburb of Beirut on Sunday, the Israeli military said, despite a US-brokered truce a year ago.

The strike, the first on the outskirts of the Lebanese capital in months, targeted Iran-backed Hezbollah's acting chief of staff, Ali Tabtabai, the military said in a statement.

Israel's strike crossed a "red line", Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati said as he stood near the bombed-out building in the Haret Hreik suburb, a Hezbollah stronghold.

Hezbollah's leadership would decide on whether and how the group would respond, he added.

Lebanon's health ministry said the strike killed five people and wounded 28 more. It hit a multi-story building, sending debris crashing into cars on the main road below.

People rushed out of their apartment buildings, fearing further bombardment, a Reuters reporter said.

The United States imposed sanctions on Tabtabai in 2016, identifying him as a key Hezbollah leader and offering a reward of up to US$5 million for information on him.

The Israeli military statement said Tabtabai "commanded most of Hezbollah's units and worked hard to restore them to readiness for war with Israel".

In a short-televised statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would not allow Hezbollah to rebuild its forces and that he expected the Lebanese government "to fulfill its obligation to disarm Hezbollah."

 

 

 

Pakistan Still Remains Afghanistan’s Most Practical Trade Corridor

Regional connectivity has become one of the most contested conversations in South Asia, with every major player seeking influence through trade routes, port access and infrastructure diplomacy. Amid these competing narratives, one reality often gets overlooked - when it comes to Afghanistan’s transit needs, Pakistan continues to offer the most practical, cost-efficient and geographically logical route. This is not a political claim — it is a commercial and logistical fact shaped by geography, infrastructure and decades of established trade flows.

Pakistan’s strategic location provides Afghanistan with the shortest and most direct access to the sea. For more than forty years, the Karachi–Torkham and Karachi–Chaman corridors have served as the main arteries linking Afghan traders to global markets. These routes are supported by a fully developed logistics ecosystem that includes deep-sea ports, highways, customs facilities, warehousing chains and thousands of transport operators who understand the specific dynamics of cross-border trade. This maturity reduces time, cost and uncertainty — three critical factors for a landlocked economy.

Alternatives exist, but none match Pakistan’s combination of scale and efficiency. Iran’s Bandar Abbas route is functional but burdened by longer distances, higher freight costs and the unpredictability of sanctions. The much-publicized Chabahar corridor, backed by India, remains more of a political project than a commercially competitive pathway; its capacities and market traction are still limited. Northern routes through Central Asia involve multiple border crossings, harsh climatic conditions and infrastructure gaps that add both cost and delay.

Afghanistan may wish to diversify its transit options — a reasonable aspiration for any landlocked nation. However, diversification should not be conflated with cost effectiveness. Geography remains the defining factor. Pakistan’s ports are closest, its transit infrastructure is the most established, and its logistics sector is already aligned with Afghan commercial patterns.

Despite shifting regional politics and the emergence of competing narratives, Pakistan retains a natural advantage that no alternative route has yet been able to match. It remains Afghanistan’s most practical, cost-efficient and reliable corridor to the world — a fact that regional policymakers should recognize as they debate connectivity, competition and the future of trade in South Asia.

 

Gazans Being Buried Under Broken Promises

At times, one gets a chilling feeling that Gazans have been buried alive under the rubbles—not only of their shattered homes, but of the world’s broken promises. The Trump-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was marketed as a bold diplomatic breakthrough, complete with plans for an interim administrative setup backed by a handful of states. But what followed was not diplomacy—it was a carefully choreographed deception.

The promised administrative structure, which was supposed to stabilize governance and allow humanitarian breathing space, has never moved beyond press statements and political theatrics. Nothing substantial has been established. No credible mechanism has been deployed. The so-called “international support” evaporated the moment cameras were switched off. The agreement now stands as an empty shell, useful only for speeches and selective justification.

Meanwhile, Israel has shown absolute contempt for the spirit and substance of the ceasefire. The killings have not stopped; on the contrary these have intensified. Entire blocks have been vaporized. Families have vanished under collapsed concrete. The word “ceasefire” has become a cruel joke—a hollow term used to mask a campaign that continues with alarming impunity.

Even more disturbing is Israel’s pursuit of an anti-Hamas armed group inside Gaza. Instead of honoring the agreement, Israel appears determined to reengineer Gaza’s internal dynamics through coercion and proxy militias. This is not conflict resolution; it is social engineering under the guise of security.

For Gazans—already trapped in the world’s largest open-air prison—the message is brutally clear: no agreement will protect them, no international promise will be honored, and no external actor will intervene before the next bombardment begins. The world watches, counts casualties, and moves on.

What remains today is not just rubble, but a moral collapse. A ceasefire that exists only on paper, an international community performing selective outrage, and a population slowly erased from global consciousness.

Gaza does not need more signatures. It needs protection. It needs enforcement. And above all, it needs a world willing to acknowledge that “ceasefire” cannot coexist with continued annihilation.

Indian Search for an Afghanistan Corridor—Bypassing Pakistan

For decades, India’s access to Afghanistan has been shaped—more accurately, restricted—by geography and politics. A quick look at the regional map explains the dilemma, India shares no border with Afghanistan, and the only direct land pathway runs through Pakistan. But with Islamabad refusing transit to Indian goods, New Delhi has to explore alternative corridors. Over time, these alternatives have evolved from theoretical proposals into functioning routes that reduce Pakistan’s leverage and expand India’s strategic reach. To read details click https://shkazmipk.com/india-afghanistan-trade/

Trump-Mamdani Meeting: An Unexpected but Constructive Moment

In an unusually cordial Oval Office meeting, President Donald Trump and New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani set aside months of mutual criticism to explore areas of cooperation. The encounter between two ideologically opposite figures was striking not only for its substance but for its tone. Gone were the harsh labels and charged rhetoric. Instead, both men emphasized affordability, shared responsibility, and their mutual interest in seeing New York City thrive.

Trump, who had previously characterized Mamdani in stark ideological terms, repeatedly stepped in to shield the mayor-elect from adversarial questions. The president even joked about photo angles and urged reporters to acknowledge areas of agreement. Mamdani, for his part, maintained his positions while stressing that ideological differences should not impede work on the city’s urgent economic challenges.

For the 34-year-old mayor-elect, the meeting was politically advantageous. He demonstrated a willingness to engage constructively with the president without compromising on principle. Trump’s warm remarks — including saying he would feel comfortable living in New York under Mamdani — undercut months of attempts by critics to paint the mayor-elect as a radical threat. The optics alone blunted a central Republican attack line heading into the midterms.

Trump also gained from the interaction. By surprising observers with an affable, conciliatory tone, he created a media moment that highlighted his ability to find common ground across ideological lines. His focus on affordability resonated with voters who have long cited economic pressures as their top concern, and he capitalized on the contrast between expectations of conflict and the reality of cooperation.

The sharpest blow fell on GOP strategists and media voices who had sought to build a sustained anti-Mamdani narrative. Trump’s own comments deflated that effort in minutes, raising questions about the future viability of that messaging. Meanwhile, Mamdani’s media critics found their lines of attack weakened as Trump dismissed hostile framing during the press exchange.

Beyond the political theater, the meeting holds meaningful implications for New York. Trump’s earlier signals about potentially withholding federal funds now seem remote, and the prospects for coordination on affordability have improved. If both leaders maintain this pragmatic tone, New York City stands to benefit from a rare moment of cooperation at the highest levels.

In a polarized era, the encounter offered a refreshing reminder that dialogue — even between unlikely partners — can still yield positive outcomes for all involved.

PSX benchmark index closes the week almost flat

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile during the week ended on November 2025, driven by investor skepticism amid the ongoing deadlock between Pakistan and Afghanistan over peace talks. Sentiments were further dampened as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its Governance and Corruption Diagnostic (GCD) Assessment Report, disclosed the prevalence of massive corruption at all levels. The benchmark index inclined by 167 points during the week, up 0.1%WoW, to close at 162,103 points.

Market participation strengthened by 35.7%WoW with average daily traded volume rising to 1.3 billion shares, as compared to 0.9 billion shares in the prior week.

On the macroeconomic front, current account reported a deficit of US$112 million during October 2025, as compared to a surplus of US$296 million during the same period last year.

 IT exports for the month of October 2025 were reported at US$386 million, up 17%YoY, marking the highest-ever monthly level.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) held FX reserves increased by US$27 million to US$14.6 billion as of November 14, 2025.

AKD Securities foresees the momentum in the KSE-100 to continue given successful IMF Executive Board approval of the IMF’s second review, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the US and Saudi Arabia.

This outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities, with the KSE-100 index trading at a multiple of 7.6x offering a dividend yield of 6.8%.

The top picks of AKD Securities include MEBL, MCB, HBL, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, and INDU.