PSX benchmark index up 0.44%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained range bound during the week, with the benchmark index trading within a band amid the absence of major triggers and rollover week. Nonetheless, the benchmark gained 610 points or 0.44%WoW to close at 139,207 on Friday July 25, 2025. However, market participation declined by 16.7%WoW to average 635 million shares traded per day.

On the macro front, developments remained broadly positive as S&P upgraded Pakistan’s credit rating by one notch to B– after three years. Subsequently, Pak Eurobond yields declined across different maturities. Moreover, aforementioned improvement in credit rating along with tightening of illicit forex market, supported a 0.5%WoW appreciation in PKR to 283.45/US$, highest weekly gain in 93 weeks.

In last T-Bills auction, yields declined by to 10.85% for one-month paper, indicating expectations of rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for July 30, 2025. AKD Securities expects SBP to resume monetary easing with a 50bps reduction, supported by moderating inflation and easing geopolitical tensions, with July 2025 CPI projected at 2.5%YoY, down from 3.2%YoY in previous month.

The GoP has formed a task force to resolve the PKR2.8 trillion gas circular debt, with a proposed plan involving commercial borrowing and the imposition of a special levy to fund repayments.

Foreign exchange reserves help by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) declined to US$14.5 billion as of July 18, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) ADB revised Pakistan's FY25 growth to 2.7 percent, 2) IMF tied 4% additional sales tax removal to wider tax net, 3) Foreign investors repatriated US$2.2 billion in FY25, 4) Power generation remained flat in FY25, and 5) ECC approved PKR100 billion financing for 50,000 housing units.

Food, Transport, and Auto assembler were the top performing sectors, while Vanaspati & allied industries, while Woollen, and Leather were among the laggards.

Major net selling was recorded by other organizations and Foreigners with a net sell of US$16.1 million. Mutual funds and Individuals absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$12.8 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: UPFL, HGFA, FHAM, ATLH, and HUMNL, while the laggards included: PSEL, PKGP, BNWM, ABL, and SRVI.

According to AKD Securities, market is expected to remain positive in the coming weeks, with the upcoming MPC and corporate results remaining in the limelight.

The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, with a target of over 165,000 points by end December 2025, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from declining interest rates and economic stability.

The top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MCB, HBL, FCCL, KOHC, INDU, and SYS.

Trump has turned US into a rogue and pariah state

The United States under the leadership of Donald Trump is almost at odds with all countries except Israel. The Trump administration is also defying established international institutions, such as UNESCO and the International Criminal Court.

Trump’s repeated and reckless remarks that Canada should be the 51st state of the United States and that his country may take over Greenland by force if necessary, his proposal to own the Gaza Strip, his reversal of any decision or step to rein in on the climate change, and his illusion that all countries are taking advantage of the US have made Trump to look outlandish.

His tactless withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has now turned into a global security headache as his administration and Israel launched military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June.

The strikes, which are an act of aggression and illegal under international law, could have led to environmental catastrophes, even though some experts still don’t rule out the possibility of nuclear disasters.

Speaking at a forum at the Institute for Political and International Studies in Tehran about 18 years ago, Germany’s Joseph Joschka said the world would descend into chaos without the United States. However, the United States itself is now pushing the world toward anarchy and lawlessness.

In his term as president, he started defying international rules and regulations. He recognized Jerusalem (al-Quds) as Israel’s capital, moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to the city, and recognized the Syrian Golan Heights as Israel’s territory, pulled out of the JCPOA, the Paris climate agreement, and the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

His recognition of occupied Jerusalem as Israel’s capital took place while the international community was and is still working, of course with a lesser hope, on establishing a Palestinian State with East Jerusalem as its capital.

In his first term, it was thought that Trump was inexperienced and was living in his dreams because he had not served in top managerial posts such as a mayor, governor, or served in Senate before being catapulted to the powerful post of president. Yet, he began his second presidency after a four-year hiatus with more thoughtless remarks and actions.

On the first day of his presidency in the second term, Trump signed an executive order to again withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement that the country had joined in during the Joe Biden presidency. In his announcement, Trump stated that “as of today, the United States will cease all implementation of the Paris agreement.”

His remarks that Canada should join the US were first taken as a joke. However, after repetition it become clear that he was serious in his statements. In his newest remarks, Trump told Fox News, "Frankly, Canada should be the 51st state, okay? It really should, because Canada relies entirely on the United States. We don't rely on Canada."

His threat of annexing Greenland, that caused transatlantic division, caused shivers in the bones of Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen prompting her to visit Berlin, Paris, and Brussels in late January with a focus on fostering "European unity". In Brussels, she met with former NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

The Trump administration also introduced sanctions on the UN Human Rights Council special rapporteur Francesca Albanese for Palestine as an outspoken critic of Israel's military offensive in Gaza. Intolerant of Albanese’s criticism of companies such as arms manufacturer Lockheed Martin for selling weapons, and tech firms Alphabet, IBM, Microsoft and Amazon for providing technology which allows Israel to track and target Palestinians, provoked the US to resort to the repetitive old policy of accusing the UN official of being ant-Semitic.

On July 21, in his latest rash decision, Trump pulled the US out of the UN culture and education agency UNESCO, repeating a move he had already ordered during his first term, which had also been reversed under Biden.  Trump justified the decision by claiming that the UN body is anti-Semitic.

All these moves are portraying the United States as a bully, rogue and pariah state that will make countries, even American friends, to rethink the quality of their relations with Washington.

 

Trump tariffs wreaking havoc in Brazilian citrus belt

According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump's plan to impose a new 50% tariff on all Brazilian products from August 01, 2025 could devastate the South American nation's citrus belt, as factories scale back production and orange farmers consider leaving fruit to rot amid a sharp drop in prices.

"You are not going to spend money to harvest and not have anyone to sell to," said grower Fabricio Vidal, from his farm in Formoso, in the state of Minas Gerais.

The new tariffs could make it impossible for his fruit to enter the United States, which buys 42% of the orange juice exported from Brazil, a trade worth around US$1.31 billion in the season ending last June.

This month, orange prices in Brazil dropped to 44 reais (US$8) a box, almost half of what they were a year ago, according to the widely followed Cepea index from the University of Sao Paulo, illustrating how Trump's disruptive trade policies can sow chaos even before enacted.

"As the day approaches in which tariffs will come into effect, anxiety increases about what might happen," Ibiapaba Netto, the head of orange juice exporter lobby CitrusBR, told Reuters in an interview.

US orange juice production dropped to its lowest level in half a century in the 2024/25 harvest, with output estimated at 108.3 million gallons, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture cited by Cepea, which shows imports will represent 90% of US supplies through September.

US consumers will bear the brunt along with Brazilian farmers. An astounding half of the orange juice Americans drink comes from Brazil under household brands such as Tropicana, Minute Maid and Simply Orange.

Brazil, which produces 80% of the world's orange juice, will be hard to replace, too.

The US has become more dependent on orange juice imports in recent years due to the "citrus greening" crop disease, hurricanes and spells of freezing temperatures.

But the new tariff on Brazilian imports represents a 533% increase over the US$415 per ton duty levied on the country's juice now.

Last Friday, Johanna Foods, a New Jersey-based producer and distributor of fruit juices, challenged in court the proposed tariffs on Brazilian orange juice, claiming they would cause "significant and direct financial harm" to the company and US consumers.

The tariffs may also spell trouble for Coca Cola and Pepsi, which account for some 60% of the orange juice sold in the United States, Netto said.

Brazil won't find it easy to replace American consumers, some of the most avid orange juice drinkers in the world.

Typically, higher-income countries import orange juice, limiting Brazil's potential reach into new markets. Brazilian orange juice is only sold to some 40 nations – representing about a third of the destinations that buy Brazilian meat, for example, according to trade data.

CitrusBR's Netto noted that hefty duties in markets such as India and South Korea, as well as low household income in China, have hampered trade with Brazil.

The European Union, in turn, already buys some 52% of Brazil's total exports, making it unlikely that countries there will make up for lost business with the US.

One would be to export Brazilian orange juice through Costa Rica, which some companies already do to avoid the current duties, said Arlindo de Salvo, an independent orange consultant. But it is unclear whether exporters will be able to pull it off once the new levy starts being enforced.

As companies struggle to find new paths to consumers, farmers in Formoso fear the worst. Prices have already dropped to about a third of what growers were paid at this time last year, farmers said, making the cost of picking oranges hardly worth the trouble.

Grower Ederson Kogler said that the only solution would be to find other markets. But, he added, "These are things that don't happen overnight."

Thomas Barrack Don Quixote of US Imperialism

Colonialism was not merely a political and economic hegemony exercised by Western powers over large parts of the world. It was also a profound cultural and ideological plot intended to distort the history of colonized peoples, to fool them, and to impose deviant models of knowledge and values on them.

This is what US envoy Thomas Barrack is doing by exploiting the collective Lebanese consciousness, sometimes by calling on them to emulate the “amazing” example of the new Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa (the former HTS leader known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani), and other times by his open lie that Hezbollah welcomed the Israeli occupation forces by scattering flowers in the 1970s.

He made such false claims in an interview with Al-Jadeed TV. When the interviewer corrected him, he added that Hezbollah emerged as a result of the events of the 1970s, which are well-known to everyone. The daily Israeli attacks on the southerners at the time and the blatant American interference in Lebanese affairs.  

Commenting on Barrack’s lie, journalist Pierre Abi Saab wrote on X, “This is Trump’s culture and this is the Trump administration, a culture of domination, arrogance, and colonial barbarism; a culture steeped in illiteracy, ignorance, impudence, and absolute self-confidence, based on contempt for all rules and norms, and a rejection of international legitimacy and international law. They all come from the same intellectual stable!”

For his part, journalist Hassan Illaik wrote, “The idiot Morgan Ortagus has been succeeded by an even idiot.”

It is often said “there is a world of difference between the two” when comparing a seasoned sage with an evasive man. This is the case when comparing Washington’s diplomats with Tehran’s diplomats, such as late Amir Hossein Abdollahian, who moved from one country to another defending the dignity of the peoples of West Asia until his honorable martyrdom.

As for the likes of Washington’s notorious diplomats, whom there is no room to mention here, as each is more devious than the next, like Thomas Barrack, whose record is replete with gambling, financial and moral scandals, but they come to us to preach about honor and dignity.

Observers have expressed their fear about the path the situation in Lebanon could take after Barrack’s departure, particularly given his threat that Washington would withdraw its hand from “mediation” if Lebanon did not abide by the clause requiring Hezbollah to disarm. This could lead to Lebanon being isolated internationally and Arab-wide as a punishment for its well–calculated stance.

The US envoy reiterated, “My role is a political mediator to positively influence the parties.”

The irony is that Barrack has never been a “mediator,” but a mouthpiece for Israel as he himself stated, “We are in Lebanon to help bring about peace, but there is a timetable, and time is running out.”

In parallel, a hostile infantry force of approximately 20 Israeli soldiers penetrated from the vicinity of the border town of Abbasiyeh toward the Rihana Bari area in the Mari plain, at dawn on Wednesday, searching several homes, and interrogated a number of Lebanese residents and Syrian workers.

For more than an hour and a half, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri presented Barrack with detailed figures on the Lebanese citizens killed by Israel, since November 27, reminding him of what was happening in Syria.

Berri stressed that as long as the situation remained as it was, it would be difficult for anyone to raise the issue of disarming the Resistance, especially since tens of thousands of Lebanese remain displaced as a result of the ongoing aggression, and preventing the southerners from returning to their demolished villages to reconstruct them.

Barrack also met Druze leader Walid Jumblatt to dissect what is happening in Syria, claiming that al-Sharaa has only 25,000 soldiers and that they are incapable of threatening Lebanon.

According to Axios, Barrack arranged an Israeli-Syrian meeting in Paris on Thursday to formulate “urgent security understandings” regarding southern Syria.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

China embarks on world largest hydropower dam

Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced construction had begun on the world's largest hydropower dam, on the eastern rim of the Tibetan Plateau, at an estimated cost of US$170 billion, the official Xinhua news agency said.

Commencement of the hydropower project, China's most ambitious since the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze, was seized by Chinese markets as proof of economic stimulus, sending stock prices and bond yields higher on Monday.

Made up of five cascade hydropower stations with the capacity to produce 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, equal to the amount of electricity consumed by Britain last year, the dam will be located in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo. A section of the river tumbles 2,000 metres (6,561 feet) in a span of 50km (31 miles), offering huge hydropower potential.

India and Bangladesh have already raised concerns about its possible impact on the millions of people downstream, while NGOs warned of the risk to one of the richest and most diverse environments on the plateau.

Beijing has said the dam will help meet power demand in Tibet and the rest of China without having a major effect on downstream water supplies or the environment. Operations are expected sometime in the 2030s.

China's CSI Construction & Engineering Index jumped as much as 4% to a seven-month high. Power Construction Corporation of China  and Arcplus Group PLC  surged by their 10% daily limit.

"From an investment perspective, mature hydropower projects offer bond-like dividends," Wang Zhuo, partner of Shanghai Zhuozhu Investment Management said, while cautioning that speculative buying into related stocks would inflate valuations.

The project will drive demand for construction and building materials such as cement and civil explosives, Huatai Securities said in a note to clients.

Shares of Beijing-listed Hunan Wuxin Tunnel Intelligent Equipment Co, which sells tunnel construction equipment, surged 30%. So did shares of Geokang Technologies Co, which makes intelligent monitoring terminals.

Cement maker Xizang Tianlu Co and Tibet GaoZheng Explosive Co, producer of civil explosive materials, both jumped their maximum 10%.

The Chinese premier described the dam as a "project of the century" and said special emphasis "must be placed on ecological conservation to prevent environmental damage," Xinhua said on Saturday.

Government bond yields rose across the board on Monday, with the most-traded 30-year treasury futures falling to five-week lows, as investors interpreted the news as part of China's economic stimulus.

The project, overseen by the newly formed state-owned China Yajiang Group, marks a major boost in public investment to help bolster economic growth as current drivers show signs of faltering.

"Assuming 10 years of construction, the investment/ GDP boost could reach 120 billion yuan (US$16.7 billion) for a single year," said Citi in a note. "The actual economic benefits could go beyond that."

The Three Gorges, which took almost two decades to complete, generated nearly a million jobs, state media reported, though it displaced at least a similar number of people.

Authorities have not indicated how many people would be displaced by the Yarlung Zangbo project.

The Yarlung Zangbo becomes the Brahmaputra River as it leaves Tibet and flows south into India and finally into Bangladesh. NGOs say the dam will irreversibly harm the Tibetan Plateau and hit millions of people downstream.

The chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh, Pema Khandu, said earlier this year that such a colossal dam barely 50km from the border could dry out 80% of the river passing through the Indian state while potentially inundating downstream areas in Arunachal and neighbouring Assam state.

 

Killing of Gazans seeking food

At least 1,054 Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli military while trying to access food aid in Gaza, the United Nations’ human rights office said in a statement Tuesday, reports the Saudi Gazette.

“Palestinians in Gaza are starving to death,” the statement said.

Desperate, hungry people are approaching aid sites run by the controversial Israeli- and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the statement said, “even though between May 27 and July 21, 1,054 Palestinians were killed by the Israeli military in Gaza while trying to access food.”

The GHF began operating in the Gaza Strip on May 27. Some 766 people were killed in the vicinity of their sites since then, the UN office said, while 288 were killed around aid convoys run by groups including the UN.

CNN has reached to the Israel Defense Forces for comment. In a post on X, Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar accused Hamas of shooting civilians trying to collect aid, but did not provide any evidence for this.

“The deaths and the horrendous physical and psychological suffering caused by hunger are the result of Israel’s interference with and militarization of humanitarian assistance into Gaza,” the UN’s statement said.

“The Israeli military must immediately stop shooting at people trying to get food. Firearms must never be used simply to disperse a crowd, even as a warning.”

The UN office called on Israel to allow more humanitarian assistance into the Gaza Strip and lift its restrictions on the UN and other humanitarian groups in the enclave.

Preparing organizers to oppose Trump policies

According to media reports, progressive advocacy organization Indivisible is launching an ambitious new campaign aimed at training more than one million organizers to oppose the policies of US President Donald Trump and his administration.

Over the next several weeks, Indivisible will be hosting online organizing sessions as part of its One Million Rising initiative, which it describes as "a national effort to train one million people in the strategic logic and practice of non-cooperation, as well as the basics of community organizing and campaign design."

Indivisible this year has already organized high-profile nationwide protests this year including the "Hands Off" and "No Kings" events that were attended by millions of Americans.

However, it says that its aim with One Million Rising is to go beyond big one-day mobilizations to create more sustained local campaigns throughout the United States that would fight the Trump agenda on a daily basis.

In its message promoting the event, Indivisible emphasizes, "It'll take all of us" to mobilize against the Trump administration and added that this effort "is how we build people power that can't be ignored."

Indivisible held its first One Million Rising session last Wednesday and a recording of the session is available to watch on YouTube.

The next session will be held on Wednesday, July 30 and will focus on "how you can lead a discussion with others and get them on board with taking action in your community" and will also help attendees organize their first "community resistance gathering" in the span of two weeks or less.

The third and final session, scheduled for Wednesday, August 13, will have attendees "on boarded to basic campaign design" where they will "learn how to implement it locally as well as get plugged into our next national campaign work."

Gloria J. Browne-Marshall, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, recently told publication Axios that Indivisible's new campaign shows that it's entering a second stage in its approach to organizing.

"That outrage is still there, but now it's going to be funneled and channeled into strategies and tactics on how we actually make change in the government," she explained.

"As more and more protests happen, local, state, and federal elected officials will feel uncomfortable maintaining the stance they have."